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En Regnskapsbasert Verdsettelse Av Nextgentel AS

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En Regnskapsbasert Verdsettelse Av Nextgentel AS NORGES HANDELSHØYSKOLE Bergen, våren 2006 Utredning i fordypnings-/spesialfagsområdet: Regnskap og økonomisk styring Veileder: Førsteamanuensis Endre Bjørndal En regnskapsbasert verdsettelse av NextGenTel AS av Pål-Magnus Hjertaas Hem og Stian Knudsen Denne utredningen er gjennomført som et ledd i siviløkonomutdanningen ved Norges Handelshøyskole og godkjent som sådan. Godkjenningen innebærer ikke at høyskolen innestår for de metoder som er anvendt, de resultater som er fremkommet eller de konklusjoner som er trukket i arbeidet. Sammendrag Vi har i denne siviløkonomutredningen valgt å foreta en strategisk regnskapsanalyse og verdsettelse av NextGenTel. Formålet med utredningen er å estimere et mest mulig korrekt verdiestimat på NextGenTel sin aksjeverdi. På den måten kan vi vurdere om dagens aksjekurs på 50,001 kroner gir et riktig bilde av de underliggende økonomiske forholdene i NextGenTel. En verdsettelse krever en grundig gjennomgang av de faktorer som påvirker aksjeverdien. Det er derfor blitt gjennomført analyse av selskapets konkurranseforhold, historisk lønnsomhetsutvikling og vurdering av fremtidsutsiktene til NextGenTel. Innsikt opparbeidet gjennom utredningen ble benyttet til å komme frem til et fundamentalt verdiestimat på 60,23 kroner pr. 10.05.06. Ved å vekte fundamentalt verdiestimat mot komparativt verdiestimat ble det funnet et endelig verdiestimat for NextGenTel aksjen på 56,55 kroner pr. 10.05.06. Til tross for usikkerhet knyttet til verdiestimatet gjør en sammenligning med dagens aksjekurs NextGenTel til et mulig investeringsobjekt. Forord Fagplanen for siviløkonomstudiet inneholder en siviløkonomutredning som må skrives innen valgt fordypningsområde. Begge kandidatene har regnskap og økonomisk styring som spesialisering på 3. avdeling. Målet med en siviløkonomutredning er å anvende kunnskap man har tilegnet seg i løpet av studietiden til å løse en praktisk problemstilling. I tråd med vår spesialisering er vår hovedinteresse rettet mot regnskap. Hovedmotivet for å velge verdsettelse er likevel den tette koblingen mellom teori og praksis som kandidatene til en viss grad har savnet i andre kurs ved Norges Handelshøyskole. Arbeidet med utredningen har både vært spennende og utfordrende. Gjennom hele prosessen har det oppstått nye problemstillinger som vi har måttet ta stilling til. Eneste ulempen med å velge verdsettelse som siviløkonomutredning er at man til dels må gå i andres fotspor. 1 Oslo Børs, 10.05.2006 2 Vi ønsker å takke vår veileder, førsteamanuensis Endre Bjørndal, for god veiledning gjennom hele arbeidet med denne utredningen. Bergen, mai 2006 Pål-Magnus Hjertaas Hem Stian Knudsen 3 Innhold 1.0 Introduksjon ................................................................................................................................. 6 2.0 Presentasjon av NextGenTel, bransje og verdsettelsesteknikk .................................................. 10 2.1 Bransjen.................................................................................................................................. 10 2.1.1 Bredbånd og de ulike bredbåndstypene .......................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Bredbåndstelefoni............................................................................................................ 12 2.2 NextGenTel ............................................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Fastsettelse av NextGenTels marked og bransje.................................................................... 16 2.4 Valg av verdsettelsesmetode .................................................................................................. 17 3.0 Strategisk Analyse...................................................................................................................... 20 3.1 Rammeverk for den strategiske analysen............................................................................... 20 3.2 Ekstern analyse....................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.1 Samfunns- og trendanalyse ............................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Bransjeanalyse................................................................................................................. 27 3.3 Intern analyse ......................................................................................................................... 35 3.3.1 KIKK analyse.................................................................................................................. 36 3.3.2 Ressursbasert perspektiv ................................................................................................. 40 3.3.3 SVIMA-analyse............................................................................................................... 45 3.3.4 Oppsummering og konklusjoner av strategisk analyse................................................... 50 4.0 Regnskapsanalyse....................................................................................................................... 53 4.1 Rammeverk for regnskapsanalyse.......................................................................................... 53 4.2 Forberedelse til regnskapsanalyse.......................................................................................... 54 4.3 Rapporterte tall....................................................................................................................... 54 4.4 Omgruppering for analyse...................................................................................................... 57 4.5 Analyse og justering av målefeil............................................................................................ 58 4.6 Omgruppert og justert resultatregnskap og balanse ............................................................... 60 5. Forholdstallsanalyse..................................................................................................................... 62 5.1 Rammeverk for forholdstallsanalyse...................................................................................... 62 5.2 Analyse av likviditet............................................................................................................... 63 5.3 Analyse av soliditet ................................................................................................................ 67 5.4 Syntetisk rating....................................................................................................................... 69 5.5 Analyse av krav...................................................................................................................... 70 5.6 Analyse av lønnsomhet .......................................................................................................... 73 5.7 Dekomponering av lønnsomhet ............................................................................................. 75 5.8 Analyse av vekst..................................................................................................................... 81 5.8.1 Fullstendig egenkapitalvekst........................................................................................... 81 5.8.2 Normalisert egenkapitalvekst.......................................................................................... 82 5.8.3 Resultatvekst ................................................................................................................... 83 5.9 Oppsummering av forholdstallsanalyse ................................................................................. 85 6.0 Fremtidsregnskap ....................................................................................................................... 87 6.1. Rammeverk for fremtidsregnskap......................................................................................... 87 6.2. Budsjettering ......................................................................................................................... 88 6.3. Fremskriving ......................................................................................................................... 94 6.4 Fremtidige avkastningskrav ................................................................................................... 97 7.0 Fundamental verdsettelse ........................................................................................................... 99 7.1 Fundamental verdsettelse – Egenkapitalmetoden .................................................................. 99 4 7.1.1 Fri kontantstrømmodellen ............................................................................................... 99 7.1.2 Superprofittmodellen..................................................................................................... 101 7.2 Fundamental verdsettelse – Selskapskapitalmetoden .......................................................... 101 7.2.1 Fri kontantstrøm fra drift – modellen............................................................................ 102 7.2.2 Superprofitt fra drift – modellen ................................................................................... 102 7.3 Konvergering av verdiestimat .............................................................................................. 103 7.4 Analyse av usikkerhet i verdiestimatet................................................................................
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