The Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) 2250 Pierce Road University Center, MI 48710 USA

CIESIN is a non-profit corporation founded in 1989 to facilitate access to, use and understanding of global change information worldwide. As a consortium, CIESIN draws upon the expertise of universities, non-profit research organizations, government agencies, fow1dations and private corporations to meet the challenges of understanding environmental issues and advancing information technology and scientific research involving the human dimensions of global change.

CiESIN is one of nine distributed data centers forming the data and information management component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS). EOS is a network of remote sensing satellites and instruments dedicated to collecting essential data for studying Earth and its changing natural systems. EOS is part of the United States Global Change Research Program, which has been established to coordinate global change research efforts across all participating federal agencies. CIESIN has been commissioned by NASA to extend the benefits of EOS to a broad array of both international research and non-research users including policy makers, federal agencies, educators, resource managers and the general public.

The authors are responsible for the choice and presentation of facts contained in this document and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of NASA.

© May 1992 Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network

® Printed on recyled paper. Path""ays of Understanding The Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

Sponsored by the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network under NASA Grant No. NAGW-2010 and NAGW-2901: Earth Science Information: Planning for the Integration and Use of Global Change Information

CIESI:N"" Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network About the Consortium for Intemational Earth Science Information Network

In 1990, the National Aeronautics and Space conducting workshops and convening conferences; Administration (NASA) granted funds to the sponsoring interdisciplinary science programs and Consortium for International Earth Science pilot projects; and consulting with the scientific Information Network (CIESIN) to bring the bene­ community and numerous agencies, institutes and fits of Earth monitoring systems, such as the Earth organizations. The Consortium's success hinges on Observing System (EOS), to policy makers and accounting for the growing interdisciplinary nature applied users worldwide. To achieve this task, of global change research and understanding the CIESIN is working with current and potential users rapid evolution of technology. to outline ways to interact with both the scientific and policy making communities, and is studying To fulfill its mission, CIESIN draws upon the the need for a computer network powerful enough expertise within universities, research organiza­ to store and disseminate data gathered from a wide tions, federal agencies and, potentially, that of range of scientific disciplines. foundations and industrial partners. Consortium members include the Environmental Research Initially, NASA asked CIESIN to serve the EOS Institute of Michigan, Michigan State University, Data and Information System and the United New York's Polytechnic University, Saginaw Valley States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) State University, the University of California at as an Affiliated Data Center. Recently, CIESIN's Santa Barbara, and the University of Michigan. role has expanded into that of a distributed data center. This designation means CIESIN will be a A major CIESIN goal is to cooperate and coordi­ "gateway" to global change information, bringing nate with organizations and researchers in the data and research on the human dimensions of global change community in order to ensure that global change into the EOS and USGCRP. every country around the globe benefits from the most advanced technology, the latest scientific In its first two years alone, CIESIN has made great research and the best information available for strides by beginning to understand user needs; critical decision making.

A Word to Our Readers

This document is aimed at a broad audience, from It is also hoped that educators, resource managers the general public to scientists who have an interest and policy makers will gain valuable information in global environmental change. from this document, using its principles to study, teach or make decisions. Educators, for example, The Working Group that developed the Social may find the information presented will assist with Process Diagram recognizes that people actively curriculum development, while policy makers may engaged in studying global change will be familiar find this document useful when evaluating recom­ with some of the material presented here. We mendations from the research community. The encourage this audience to focus on the sections Social Process Diagram can help determine that describe the Social Process Diagram. For those whether a particular course of study or recommen­ not as familiar with global change issues, it is dation reflects an understanding of related issues. hoped that the background information presented will stimulate your curiosity for further study. Members of the Human Interactions Working Group

The scientists listed below developed the Social Process Diagram at the Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen, Colorado in August 1991. The results of this Working Group's efforts are detailed in this document. This document was written and reviewed by the Working Group members.

Dr. William Kuhn, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (Working Group Organizer and Chair) Dr. Urs Luterbacher, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland (Working Group Co-Moderator) Dr. Ellen Wiegandt, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland (Working Group Co-Moderator) Dr. Christopher Achen, Political Science Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California and University of Rochester, New York Dr. Paul Demeny, Population Council, New York, New York Dr. Allan M. Din, International Academy of the Environment, Geneva, Switzerland Dr. Jae Edmonds, Economic Programs, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, and Policy Programs, Pacific Northwest Laboratory's Global Studies Program, Washington, D.C. Dr. Frank Hole, Department of Anthropology, Yale University, New Haven , Connecticut Dr. Stephen Kowalewski, Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia

Dr. Frederic L. Pryor, Economics Department, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania Dr. Gary Yohe, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut Table of Contents

2 Preface by Jack Lousma, Pres ident and Chief Executive Officer, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network

4 Executive Summary

6 The Call to Explore the Human Dimensions of Global Change 10 The Social Process Diagram: A Fundamental Contribution to Human Dimensions Research By Dr. Harold K. Jacobson , Chair, Scientific Com.mittee of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, International Social Science Council, and Director, Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan 11 Reestablishing a Unified Approach to the Sciences By Dr. Urs Luterbacher, Professor of Political Science, Graduate Institute of International Studies , Geneva, Switzerland

12 Global Change Research Occurring Worldwide 15 Studying the Earth System By Dr. Harold Mooney, Past Chair, U.S. Committee on Global Change Research and Professor of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California 16 Studying the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change By Dr. Richard H. Moss , Deputy Executive Direc tor, Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, and Programme Officer, International Geos phere-Biosphere Programme Integrating the Social 18 ,d Sciences to Address Global Change Issues Human Interactions 21 Working Group Participants

The Social Process Diagram 22 The Aspen Global Change Institute 34 By John Katzenberger, Director, Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen, Colorado

The Diagram in Action: 35 Three Potential Scenarios Global Warming and Sea Level Rise 36 By Dr. Gary Yohe , Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut The Environmental Impact of 40 Human Population Migration By Dr. Urs Luterbacher, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland; Dr. Ellen Wiegandt, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; and Dr. Stephen Kowalewski, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia Energy and the Environment: 44 The Effects of a Tax on Fossil Fuel Emissions By Dr. Jae Edmonds, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Washington, D.C.

Advancing Global Change 50 Research

Appendices 55 Preface

Science and technology have provided us people live on Earth, is brought into sharp with a new view of Planet Earth, first through focus from the space shuttle. As it orbits Earth the electronic eyes of sensor systems on space­ .every hour and a half, one of the most sophisti­ craft whirling around the globe, and then cated creations ever conceived and built by through human eyes, fascinated by its vast human minds and hands passes over millions range of features and colors. of people suffering from wars, hunger and dis­ ease--conditions that have persisted for gener­ From space, we can see all the colors of Earth: ations. It seems that so few have benefited the blues of its oceans, the white of its clouds from all that we know and can do. Somehow, and snow on its mountains, the green and we must use technological advances to make brown patchwork of farm fields, and the the world a better place to live--for everyone. painted deserts in all their living hues of red and brown and purple. From space, the world We now have that opportunity. looks like a map or a globe that might sit atop one's desk-but with one major difference. It We are living at a special time in history in is without the lines or boundaries that divide which we can make a global contribution of us socially, politically or economically. lasting value. The convergence of three key factors is helping to create this opportunity: When looking back at Earth from space, we the recognition that more responsible and realize how much we care for this place, the aggressive environmental action is needed; the place where our relationships, memories, development of the requisite sensor and data hopes, dreams and ambitions reside. We wish system technologies; and the public and politi­ we could convey the wonder, the marvel, the cal will to attack the environmental problems awe of this exquisitely beautiful blue and white we now face. sphere, suspended in its sea of blackness, with its appearance of unity and tranquillity. Seeing Threats to our environment and the need for Earth from space is a powerful, expansive better management of Earth systems are experience that often makes us impatient with reported and debated widely and vigorously. the relative pettiness that so often preoccupies Although we sense the need to take action, and confounds us in more traditional there are conflicting views on how much or surroundings. what kind of action to take, since problems are not well quantified or understood. The need This experience also makes us realize that to balance conflicting demands for economic Earth itself is a kind of spacecraft, and we are progress with responsible and effective envi­ all astronauts upon it, hurtling along at amaz­ ronmental management further complicates ing speed. Just as the inhabitants of a space­ the issues, exciting a multitude of special craft must conserve supplies, keep their ship . interests in the process. clean and strive to work together in harmony, we must do the same on Spacecraft Ea rth. If And, while space-based technology for remote we are to enjoy a safe and successful mission, sensing of Earth and its environment has been we must use our resources wisely, be good used for many years, the Earth-based use and stewards of our environment and strive to application of the acquired data has not kept improve our relationships. pace. The technology now exists, however, to catalogue and store tremendous quantities of The great disparity between the rapidly data and to distribute it at high speeds via advancing technology that allows us to fly in international electronic networks. This will space, and the seemingly changeless way many give natural and social scientists access, for the

Executive Summary

Earth is a place of change, first and continu­ The Social Process Diagram is, in part, an ally by natural forces, and increasingly by a expansion of several preceding global change myriad of human activities. Humans naturally research efforts. In the mid-1980s, a group of organize into social groups, and our inclination natural scientists constructed a diagram to question, explore and learn has caused and picturing the interactions among natural continues to cause much of the environmental processes that influence global change. This change we experience today. Critical global diagram has become widely known as the change issues-including loss of biodiversity, Bretherton Diagram. While "Human climate change and ozone depletion-will all Activities" are noted on the Bretherton remain center stage as we enter the 21st century. Diagram, the relationships among these activi­ A growing realization surrounding research ties were not developed. The Social Process into these and other areas is how human activi­ Diagram, explained in this document, gives us ties combine with naturally occurring events to a framework to begin analyzing these human contribute to global change. This new facet of dimensions. global change research is called the "human dimensions" of global change. The Social Process Diagram consists of seven building blocks that constitute the Diagram's This document explores how humans, inter­ structural framework: acting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change. The causes and Fund of Knowledge and Experience. This consequences of human activities need to be refers to the formal and informal understand­ factored into the discussions, research, predic­ ing people have of their natural and social tions, policies and actions surrounding global environments, and to the technology that their change. When the links between the natural culture defines as relevant. and human domains are identified and quanti­ fied, we will begin to understand more fully Preferences and Expectations. From the Fund the direction of global change. Achieving this of Knowledge people define their preferences goal requires that social and natural scientists and expectations, which reflect the culturally work together to identify and understand defined constraints and opportunities that global change and to recommend courses of confront individual actions. action to ensure the long-term well-being of Earth and all its inhabitants. Factors of Production and Technology, includ­ ing resources consisting of Labor, Land, Recognizing the impact human activities have Capital, Raw Material and Energy. The on the environment and responding to the resources and technology people use to need to document the interactions among produce goods and services constitute this human activities, the Consortium for category. This category helps us trace what International Earth Science Information elements enter a system, how they are modi­ Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of fied and what emerges at the end of the 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrat­ process. ing the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Population and Social Structure. The world's Social Process Diagram, will help natural and growing population is perhaps one of the most social scientists, educators, resource managers important factors of global environmental and policy makers envision and analyze how change. Population helps determine the human systems interact among themselves and demands placed on resources and the associat­ with the natural system. ed wastes generated, and thus whether a

4 region will sufficiently support these demands. The Diagram also accounts for the fact that Population can be defined statically (size and human phenomena occur within a certain geo­ distribution); in terms of social structure graphic location and over a certain time period. (ethnicity, class, caste or clan); or dynamically Adding the elements of space (where a change (marriage, birth and death rates). is taking place) and time (how quickly a process is occurring) to an issue being investigated Economic Systems. Economic systems deter­ extends the value of the Diagram and helps mine how people produce and consume goods pinpoint our understanding of the issue. and how wealth is distributed and evolves. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can Political Systems and Institutions. be used, this document includes three hypo­ Institutions and organizations ranging from thetical scenarios of global change issues: global governments to the family unit influence policy warming and sea level rise; the environmental formation and the way society is organized. impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios Global Scale Environmental Processes. The demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visu­ physical, chemical, and biological processes alizing specific processes that might be studied and their interactions that affect global change to evaluate a particular global change issue. are represented by the Bretherton Diagram. The scenarios also show that interesting and On the Social Process Diagram, this is called unanticipated questions may emerge as links "Global Scale Environmental Processes." Thus, are explored between categories on the Diagram. the six human dimension building blocks will not only interact among themselves, but will The effort to develop the Social Process also link to Global Scale Environmental Diagram is an important step in understanding Processes (i.e., the Bretherton Diagram) the human dimensions of global change. The through various driving forces. next step is to join the categories in the Bretherton Diagram with those in the Social Process Diagram into a more complete picture Because output from one building block of global change. With this road map, scien­ acts as the input to another, none of these can tists, policy makers, resource managers and be evaluated in isolation. Elements from one others will have a tool to comprehend Earth category influence the evolution of elements in system science and how the complex interac­ another. These linkages, represented by tions among the atmosphere, biosphere, arrows, are the processes that constitute the cryosphere, hydrosphere and human activities "driving forces" of global change. form the dynamic Earth system.

Once the building blocks are dynamically It is hoped that the Social Process Diagram will linked by various processes, the Diagram can serve as a cornerstone for furthering existing be used in two ways. First, on a general level, research efforts and will initiate new efforts. it can help clarify how researchers from differ­ The information presented in this document is ent disciplines can work together on a particu­ consistent with the research agendas proposed lar issue. Second, on a more specific level, the by other national and international groups, linkages among building blocks can be defined including the United States Global Change as types of data sets needed to analyze a global Research Program, the International Geosphere­ change scenario. Biosphere Programme, the National Research Council, the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme and the World Climate Research Programme.

5 The Call to Population: Human ability to control disease, Explore reproduce and feed continually growing numbers of people has caused our population the Human to mushroom: from about one billion in the 1830s to more than five billion today. Dimensions of Burgeoning populations raise questions about how natural resources can be stretched to meet Global Change increasing human needs.

Rnet Earth has been modified continually Economics: An evolutionary corner was since its infancy some 4.5 billion years ago. turned when humans shifted from hunting and Many believe that early in Earth's history, gathering to agriculture, because this activity the planet was covered by water, with dramatically changes the natural environment. an atmosphere dominated by carbon dioxide. This shift began about 10,000 years ago in Slowly, Earth began to give birth to Mesopotamia, and about 7,000 years ago in volcanic islands, the cores of our China and Mesoamerica (PreColumbian present continents. As plant life Mexico and Central America). developed, photosynthesis caused oxygen to increase in the atmosphere, while large amounts of carbon dioxide were removed by reaction with continental rock material. More recently, massive snow and ice fields have covered much of the planet at various times Energy: A half-million years ago, humans to sculpt and shape Earth's surface. learned to ignite fire. Since then, humans have Natural forces have caused global steadily increased their abilities to extract energy change throughout the history of our from the environment and exploit these sources planet. Why, then, the present concern? through the use of tools and social organization. Energy production and consumption are major Our own species, Homo sapiens, and our ances­ contributors to changes in the natural environ­ tors have also drastically changed the face of ment through effects such as depletion of natural the planet. Humans naturally organize into resources and pollution. social groups, and our inclination to question, explore and learn has caused and continues to cause much of the environmental change we experience today. In fact, as thinking beings, humans have the potential to cause environ­ Government Policy: The highway construction mental changes within a shorter time period policies Congress passed in the 1950s created and of greater magnitude than many naturally many of today's interstate highways. But the occurring events. highway system spurred a huge expansion in interstate trucking at the expense of the railroad Clearly, humans are a potent and complex industry. In addition, the new highways created element within Earth's system of spheres-the an increase in truck and automobile exhaust atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and gases, a leading source of fossil fuel emission. hydrosphere-that support a broad diversity of life. Consider some specific examples: The • coupling of natural and human systems, as shown in these examples, has led scientists to acknowledge that complex interrela­ tionships exist between humans and their natural environment. Everything we do affects the system that supports us, and changes to the environment, in turn, cause changes in us. In this living cycle, one change leads to another, then another, as output from one activity becomes input to another.

This document describes an initial step toward exploring how humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change. The causes and conse­ quences of human activities-the human dimensions-must begin to be factored into the discussions, research, predictions, policies and actions surrounding global change. Achieving this goal requires social and natural scientists to work together to understand glob­ al change and to recommend courses of action to ensure the long-term well-being of Earth and all its inhabitants. When the links between the natural and human domains are identified and quantified, we will begin to understand more fully the direction and conse­ quences of global environmental change.

The Need for Human Dimensions Research Until recently, most global change studies focused on understanding the interactions among natural processes. For example, if carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, the Earth's surface and air temperature will rise. This, in turn, affects the wind and where and how much it rains. Clouds and atmospheric water vapor also change, and they, in turn, further affect the temperature. Temperature and rainfall affect the type and amount of vegetation on Earth. Vegetation and the oceans remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Further, vegeta­ tion and clouds help determine the amount of sunlight available to heat the Earth. While studying natural processes like these is Dr. William Kuhn, active in CIESIN since its crucial to understanding global change, it is not inception, initiated and orchestrated the effort to enough. For global change is more than convene these social scientists. During their drought in the African Sahel region or the meeting, group members produced a diagram­ record-breaking high temperatures of the 1980s. called the Social Process Diagram-showing the Increasingly, global change must include relationships among social systems and how human dimensions such as the movement of these affect and are affected by global change. human populations, urbanization, changing land use patterns, the consumption and pro­ The Social Process Diagram illustrated in this duction of energy, pollution, depletion of document is the initial stage of developing this resources, evolution and extinction of species, type of research tool. The Working Group antic­ changes in international economies, the balance ipates that the Diagram will continue to develop of economic power, changes in the political and change as global change programs evolve. orientation of world powers and disease. Today, with the ongoing input of the Working Group members, Kuhn and others are continu­ The call for research in these human dimen­ ing to share ideas about the Diagram and sions of global change has been heralded by describe how it can be applied. numerous scientific groups, including the United States Committee on Global Change Building on the Bretherton Diagram Research (the U.S. national committee for the International Geosphere-Biosphere The Social Process Diagram is, in part, an exten­ Programme). In a 1990 report, Research sion of several preceding global change research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research efforts. In the nl.id-1980s, a group of natural Program, (National Academy Press, 1991), the scientists assembled at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Committee asserted: to construct a diagram showing the interactions among natural processes that influence global The global change program has benefited tremen­ change. This diagram, known as the Bretherton dously from the early efforts of the Earth Systems Diagram, was named after Dr. Francis Sciences Committee (ESSC) to create a "wiring Bretherton, who participated in this effort and diagram" of key processes and information flows chaired the Earth System Sciences Committee of among the climatic, biogeochemical and ecological the NASA Advisory Council. components of the Earth system . . . .Scholarship on the human dimensions of global change is now suffi­ The group that developed the Bretherton ciently advanced that the diagram should be revised Diagram realized that understanding the to reflect our conceptual understanding of the inter­ relationships among their disciplines was crucial actions between people and environment that consti­ to studying the natural aspects of global change. tute the Earth system. The two major components of that Diagram, the Physical Climate System and Biogeochemical Responding to this identified need, the Processes, have several subcomponents. The Consortium for International Earth Science Bretherton Diagram shows that information and Information Network (CIESIN) defined an data from one system or discipline is needed to intermediate step to accomplish before we can evaluate processes in another system. By con­ conceptually understand the interactions sulting that diagram, scientists can determine between people and the environment. This whether the relevant processes needed to evalu­ step is to document the interactions among ate and understand a particular global change human activities themselves and subsequently phenomenon have been considered. how these interactions affect and are affected by global change. While "Human Activities" are noted on the Bretherton Diagram, the relationships within To accomplish this task, CIESIN commissioned that category were not developed. Human 12 scientists, called the Human Interactions systems cannot be studied independently, but Working Group, to meet at the Aspen Global are interrelated in a fashion similar to processes Change Institute in Aspen, Colorado for six within the natural science system. Thus, there days in August 1991. 8 was a concrete need to develop a "social Second, scientists need to continue focusing on process" diagram to begin exploring how interdisciplinary research programs. As global social science processes- the human dimen­ environmental change becomes more complex, sions of global change-contribute to and are projecting courses of action will require an affected by changes in the environment. interdisciplinary approach. It is important to learn how research and findings in the social With continued development, the Social sciences relate to global change research and Process Diagram has the potential to be to the findings in the natural sciences. To do this, social sciences what the Bretherton Diagram is professionals must study issues individually, to the natural sciences. The Diagram gives us a but also work together to study issues as relat­ framework to begin analyzing the human ed parts of the global system. Diagrams and interactions that contribute to global change. models will be especially useful when researchers do not share a common technical language, yet rely on one another for data and Forging a Link Between the information crucial to advancing research. Natural and Social Sciences Armed with tools such as the Social Process Using the Social Process Diagram and the Diagram and the Bretherton Diagram, scien­ Bretherton Diagram, researchers can take addi­ tists, policy makers, resource managers and tional steps to comprehend more fully the others will be able to comprehend how the causes and consequences of global environ­ interactions among natural and human mental change. First, the Diagrams have the activities form the dynamic Earth system that potential to be joined. In the san1e way the supports 5.5 billion humans, more than a Bretherton Diagram factored in "Human million species of invertebrates, 320,000 species Activities," the Social Process Diagram factors of plant life, 22,000 fishes, 10,500 reptiles and in "Global Scale Environmental Processes." amphibians, 9,000 birds, 5,800 microorga1iisms, Ultimately, these provisions will allow the 4,000 mammals and millions of other plant and diagrams to be joined into a complete picture animal species yet to be identified. of global change.

PHYSICAL CLIMATE SYSTEM

Atmospheric Physics/Dynamics

=s:: -~ ...... 0 c E ~ LLJ

BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

A simplified version of the Bretherton Diagram. The detailed version can be found in Mosaic (Vol. 19, No. 3/4, Fall/Winter 1988) published by the National Science Foundation. The Social Process Diagram: A Fundamental Contribution to Human Dimensions Research By Dr. Harold K. Jacobson, Chair, Scientific Committee of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, International Social Science Council, and Director, Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan

The Social Process Diagram is a fundamental con­ In producing the Social Process Diagram, CIESIN's tribution to research on the human dimensions of Human Interactions Working Group accomplished global environmental change. It ties together efforts this next step. The Diagram, however, does more of the scientific community to develop and refine a than show the linkages among the major categories research agenda and provides a broad orientation within the social sciences. By indicating the direc­ for future work. tion and time scale of interactions among these cate­ gories, it provides the elements of a rudimentary The process of defining a comprehensive model. research agenda for the human dimensions of global change The Social Process Diagram will play a critically began in 1986. By 1991, con­ important role in human dimensions research. The sensus had been achieved on research will involve thousands of individuals all the topics that should be over the world from several disciplines working included. This consensus can alone or in teams on discrete subjects. The natural be reviewed in A Framework for and essential tendency is to orient one's research Research on the Human primarily in terms of previous work on the same Dimensions of Global topic. But to deepen the understanding of the Environmental Change human dimensions of global environmental change, (Jacobson, Price 1990), which the results of a wide variety of studies will have to the International Social Science be fitted together. This can be accomplished only if Council adopted in November these studies are shaped from their inception by an 1990 as the broad orientation awareness of connections and interactions with for its Human Dimensions of other topics. The Social Process Diagram provides Global Environmental Change the overarching framework that will facilitate these Programme, and in the report interactions. of the U.S. National Research Council Committee, Global Projecting the consequences of likely and possible January 18, 1973 Environmental Change: fuhrre human activities will be essential to dealing Mississippi River Delta Understanding the Human with global environmental change in as rational a Landsat MSS images. Dimensions . manner as possible. Existing projections extrapolate

March 3, 1989 current activities or introduce assumptions about Although there is consensus changes that are chosen more or less arbitrarily. To among these and other agen­ improve these projections, an operating model of da-setting documents on the social processes will be required and this will have topics that must be included in to be linked with a model of natural processes. human dimensions research, none of the documents shows Much data needs to be collected and many studies how the topics fit together. and modeling efforts need to be accomplished The scientific community had before it would be possible to even hope that this identified the natural science goal could be attained. The Social Process Diagram components of the Bretherton will orient this work and point the way toward the Diagram, but had not taken goal. Its importance to human dimensions research the next step. is fundamental.

10 Reestablishing a Unified Approach to the Sciences By Dr. Urs Luterbacher, Professor of Political Science, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland

Science in the 17th and 18th centuries made little physical laws, the extension of mathematical knowl­ distinction between natural and social processes. In edge, the invention of machines that could be used in both areas, scientists believed that the "natural" order industrial processes, the exploration of the globe, the of the world could be discovered by either examining constitutional developments in England, and the natural phenomena or by studying essential human political changes leading to the American and French interactions and arrangements such as social con­ Revolutions all contributed to developing this vision. tracts. In the 17th and 18th centuries, these were defined as the constitutional framework, which was During the 19th century, however, partially because of the foundation for social relations everywhere. major advances in the natural sciences, this unified approach began to unravel. This process did not Scientists and mathematicians such as Pascal, Euler, result only from the success of the natural sciences, Daniel Bernoulli, d' Alembert and Condorcet tried to but also because natural science began to specialize solve problems that intersected the boundaries we into various disciplines. At the same time, the social currently draw between natural and social domains. upheavals of the 19th century spawned separate social For these scientists, the search for a "perfectable" sciences whose aims became more and more diversi­ social order was as important as the search for an fied. As a result, the unitary perspective of the 18th understanding of laws in the natural sciences. century was abandoned and the social and natural sciences mostly went their separate ways. This unitary view of science was restated in the Encyclopedia Movement of the late 18th century in Concern for the interaction between social and physi­ which d' Alembert played a significant role. This inte­ cal processes and the use of common methodologies grated approach was also adopted by the 18th centu­ was never completely lost. Great scientific minds ry physiocrats (mostly French) who tried to define the such as Emile Borel and Jolm Von Neumann interrelations among agricultural studies, biology, addressed problems in the social as well as in the demography, economics and politics. Condorcet, the natural sciences in the 20th century. The fact that both French mathematician and political figure who Borel and Von Neumann played a significant role in analyzed political problems in mathematical terms, developing game theory, and that Von Neumann did also believed in this unitary concept. Condorcet stated important work in economics and in mathematics and his complete agreement with a concept proclaimed by theoretical physics demonstrates their ability to con­ the French economist and statesman Turgot that "the tribute to several disciplines. truths of moral and political sciences can be estab­ lished with the same certainty as those that form the The challenges posed by the processes of global envi­ system of the physical sciences." (Condorcet 1785:i). ronmental change that result from immense social, This thought was important for Condorcet because it political and technological changes (as occurred in the led him to "the consoling expectation that humanity 18th century) again require a unitary approach by will necessarily progress toward happiness and social and natural scientists. Global environmental perfection as it has already progressed toward better change can only be understood if perspectives devel­ knowledge of truth." (Condorcet 1785:i). oped by both the social and natural sciences are adopted and linked together. This union is necessary The singular approach to natural and social science because human activities cause many of the changes was not just an intellectual phenomenon, but was occurring in the global natural environment and conditioned by technological and political changes humans are, in turn, affected by the consequences of taking place during that time. The discovery of the processes they help create.

1 1 Global Change Research Occurring Worldwide

wth a wide rang~ of complex issues atmosphere and the oceans forever bind them contributing to global change, addressing the together. As Dr. Mooney notes in the accompa­ problems that are arising at an ever-accelerat­ nying article, the evolution of studying Earth ing pace requires the combined efforts and system science has been a difficult process, but expertise of natural scientists, social scientists, one that is now advancing along a well­ resource managers, administrators, policy defined path. Similar efforts are underway to makers and the general public. To further combine the expertise of social scientists to understand the foundation upon which the study the human dimensions. Social Process Diagram was developed, it is helpful to describe some of the major global The International Council of Scientific Unions change research programs. (ICSU) is an international, non-governmental scientific organization whose principal objective The world's scientific community has been is to encourage international scientific activity coordinating its efforts to understand global for the benefit of humankind. Among the change, realizing that both beneficial and detri­ international global change research programs mental environmental actions by any nation administered by ICSU is the International will impact other nations as surely as the Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) .

12 The IGBP is an alliance of interdisciplinary, interlinked projects, each aimed at scientific questions that address the most critical unknowns about the Earth system. Fifty-one nations now have national IGBP committees and programs.

The IGBP has been working since 1986 to iden­ tify the key unknowns about the functioning of the Earth system. These unknowns, formulated in seven questions, are the basis for developing This effort recognizes that the the IGBP core projects, and concern issues such global change challenge is so as how biological and other processes regulate complex and interdisciplinary that a atmospheric chemical composition; how variety of federal agencies must work together processes in the open oceans and the coastal to advance knowledge. zones influence global cycles and may respond to global change; how vegetation controls CEES has established seven priorities for U.S. fluxes of energy and water in the soil-vegeta­ global change research. Heading the list is tion-atmosphere system; how global changes "Climate and Hydrologic Systems;" the water will affect terrestrial ecosystems; and the cycle-clouds in particular-is fundamental to causes and consequences of past global understanding climate change. At the bottom changes. Detailed scientific plans to address of the priority list is "Solar Influences;" while these unknowns have been or are being the sun does vary in intensity, it is not clear developed. what effect this has on climate. Fifth in this list of priorities are the "Human Dimensions." In addition to participating in international While six of the seven priority areas in the programs, individual countries are mounting USGCRP can be studied by those in the physi­ their own global change research efforts. In the cal, chemical, geological and biological United States, the U.S. Global Change Research sciences, the human dimensions, especially, Program (USGCRP) was established in the late require the expertise of the social scientist. 1980s by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES). The CEES, Another significant national program is the which includes representatives of 11 federal United Kingdom Global Environmental agencies and departments, coordinates the Research Office (UK GER). The UK GER was federal research plan for global change. established in 1990 by the five UK Research Councils. The UK GER Office acts as a focal point for flow and exchange of information on UK and international science and policy devel­ opments, and acts as a contact point for equiv­ alent offices in other countries. The involve­ ment of all the Research Councils in establish­ ing and funding this initiative reflects the UK's commitment to interdisciplinary approaches to global change, and the extent to which the issues cross traditional scientific disciplines within the natural and social sciences.

13 Focusing on the Human National Academy of Engineering. The NRC Dimensions recently proposed an aggressive human dimensions program for the United States in A deficiency in both national and international the recently published book Global global change programs has been the lack of Environmental Change: Understanding the Human effort in the area of human dimensions. This Dimensions (Stern, et al., 1992). deficiency is not due to a lack of interest; rather, most initiatives have been led by natural Non-governmental efforts to address global scientists and most funding has been appropri­ change issues are also operating worldwide. ated to their disciplines. The Social Science Research Council (SSRC), an independent, international association In recent years, however, several agencies composed of and directed by social scientists, addressing the human dimensions of global is one example. The SSRC helps scientists and change have been established. The scholars from different disciplines work International Social Science Council (ISSC), together to advance interdisciplinary research. consists of representatives from 15 internation­ Through its Committee for Research on Global al associations. ISSC addresses such issues as Environmental Change, SSRC sponsors economics, political science, psychological research not only among social scientists, but studies, public opinion research and mental also between social and natural scientists. This health. Recently, the Human Dimensions of committee is fostering interdisciplinary Global Environmental Change Progran1me research in six major areas of large-scale, (HDGECP) was formed within the ISSC. The long-term change in the human environment. Scientific Committee for the HDGECP is chaired by Dr. Harold K. Jacobson, one of the Another program, Earth Transformed (ET), long-time advocates for including the human developed as a result of a symposium held at dimensions in global change research efforts. Clark University in October 1987 called "The This committee includes representatives from Earth as Transformed by Human Action." This numerous social science disciplines world­ program sponsors research in the human wide, and complements the IGBP. dimensions of global environmental change and the development of tools such as geo­ Another organization with a strong focus on graphic information systems. Dr. Billie Lee the human dimensions of global change is the Turner II, professor of geography at Clark National Research Council (NRC), an agency University, is ET's coordinator. of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and Shanghai, China Landsat MSS Image Studying the Earth System By Dr. Harold A. Mooney, Past Chair, U.S. Committee on Global Change Research, and Professor of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California

The need for a comprehensive approach to temporal domains and traditionally use different studying Earth as a system has become increas­ tools as they progress in their work. During the ingly obvious as the unequivocal signs of major past few years, though, increasing communica­ changes in the lands, oceans and the atmosphere tion among these scientists and collaborative have accumulated. The implications these projects have evolved. New, integrated teaching changes have for the well being of society programs and research centers have helped have created an urgency to understand the develop these collaborative efforts. This impor­ consequences of these changes. tant transition has not been easy and is still an ongoing process. This sense of urgency resulted in the develop­ ment of an international program, through the Implicit in the Bretherton Diagram is that mid-1980s to the present, for studying the changes that occur to the Earth system are in consequences of global change. This interna­ part driven by human activities. No attention, tional planning effort, the International however, was given to these drivers in the initial Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) has development of the formal IGBP research pro­ been augmented by comparable national gram. This omission is now being corrected by programs. In essence, the aggressive national programs original architects of the in this area, namely by the IGBP concept thought that Human Dimensions of Global melding information from Environmental Change physical and biological Program (HDGECP) and by sciences would give us a forging links between the quantitative understanding HDGECP and the IGBP. The of what drives the global process of integrating research climate and biogeochemical approaches between natural systems. It was the pertur­ and social sciences will be even bation and potential major alteration of these more difficult than is being experienced by scien­ systems that spawned our concern for the tists within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, consequences of global change. Although the there is now a strong consensus that we must links between biological and physical systems understand, in detail, both human-induced and were easy to perceive, the quantitative linkages naturally-induced drivers and their impacts, if had not been made. Developing the Bretherton we are to understand how the Earth system Diagram provided an important visualization operates and is changing. of how the elements of the total natural system interact. The development of the Social Process Diagram will no doubt serve a similar role to that of the The efforts of the Bretherton group implied that Bretherton Diagram. It will stimulate integrated, attention had to be directed to the interfaces globally-oriented thinking within the social among the traditional natural science disciplines. sciences. It will also help the natural sciences by Initially, this meant dialogue between, for clearly showing the links between the direct example, terrestrial ecologists and climate social drivers and environmental change as modelers. This in itself was not easy in the well as the complex indirect factors controlling beginning because these disciplines normally these drivers. conduct sh1dies using different spatial and

15 Studying the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change By Dr. Richard H. Moss, Deputy Executive Director, Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme and Programme Officer, International Geosphere­ Biosphere Programme

The International Geosphere-Biosphere human use of natural resources, a task that Programme (IGBP) was established in order to requires close collaboration with the social describe and understand the interactive sciences. physical, chemical and biological processes that regulate the total Earth system, the Because the IGBP seeks to develop a predictive changes that are occurring in this system and understanding of changes that affect the how these changes are influenced by human functioning of the biosphere and the impact activities. these changes have on natural systems, the programme will require information about Detailed planning for the IGBP started in 1986. how human activities currently force natural The first step in establishing the programme cycles, how socio-economic behaviours that was to clarify the key scientific unknowns affect nahual systems may change and how about the Earth system and changes to it. This human responses to global changes may create task WqS la1.mched by scientists within a range new feedbacks in nah1ral systems. Natural of natural science disciplines that are important scientists cannot develop these predictions on to understanding the hydrological and their own; they need information and data biogeochemical cycles and their interaction that can only be developed by researchers in with the physical aspects of the Earth system. the social sciences.

Now that this task is completed, it is necessary Some research into the human dimensions of to begin incorporating information, data and global change will occur independently of research on the human dimensions of global research in the natural sciences. Projects change. There are several reasons why this is focusing on issues such as discontinuities crucial. The most basic is that while natural between human behaviour and human forces have influenced and shaped the environ­ attitudes regarding environmental protection ment over the course of Earth's history, and global change; the impact of industrial humankind is now expected to change the heritage on irmovation; the effects of institu­ environment more rapidly than during any tions on resource use; the ways in which comparable period. The burning of fossil fuels, global changes could affect trading patterns agriculture, forestry, changes in land use, and flows; the relationship between population industrial activities, waste disposal and other pressures and land and resource degradation; human activities have all helped alter natural and the process of diffusing new technologies cycles and systems. In order to understand will complement the research of programmes natural and anthropogei'ic-induced changes like the IGBP. Interdisciplinary research in in the functioning Earth system, it will be necessary to develop a full understanding of

16 these and other areas is needed to advance The knowledge gained through programmes the goal of both the natural and social sciences like the IGBP about the functioning of the Earth to improve our understanding of how system will be interesting in their own right to humankind's relationship with the environ­ natural scientists. Unless this knowledge is ment can be managed. applied through collaborative research with social scientists to understand the impact of Other projects will require close collaboration global changes on human systems, however, it between natural and social scientists. These will not be useful to the public or policy makers. will include projects that focus on changes in Both natural and social science expertise and land cover due to changing land use practices research need to be applied to what we learn and the use of coastal zones. Projects will about global change in order to develop also include developing models of the socio­ effective policy responses. This will improve economic impacts of meso-scale climate our prospects of meeting the challenges and changes and improving current models of capitalizing on the opportunities that global greenhouse gas emissions for activities such as change creates. logging and agriculture. These projects are beginning to be developed through the liaison between the IGBP and the HDGECP.

17 Integrating the Social Sciences to Address Global Change Issues

Researchers within the social sciences Anthropology and Archaeology have a significant role to play in analyzing, understanding and mitigating global environ­ Humans have 10,000 years of experience as mental change. While social scientists farmers and 5,500 years as urban dwellers. recognize that their expertise is crucial to a The way humans have reacted to environmen­ wide variety of initiatives, they have not yet tal change and how they have influenced and formulated a comprehensive plan to organize reshaped the environment are important and focus their efforts. aspects of studying the human dimensions of global change. Anthropology, the study of This section gives the layperson and scientists human populations throughout history and in not yet involved in global change issues an diverse physical environments, can give a introduction to the potential roles social scien­ regional view of changes-a viewpoint that tists can play in global change. This section is allows us to assess actual rather than not exhaustive, for other social science disci­ theoretical impacts of global change. plines, such as sociology, geography and histo­ ry, clearly have a role to play in understanding Virtually all human experience lies in the past, global change. Based upon the expertise repre­ whether considering Homo habilis, two million sented in the Working Group, however, this years ago, or our own species, Homo sapiens, section details how some of the social science present at least 35,000 years ago with cultural disciplines can contribute. traits similar to today's. Archaeology, a specialty within anthropology, focuses on how people have interacted with their environment over thousands, even millions, of years. Human experiences with global environmental change have been encoded in written history, in archaeological remains and in the environ­ mental record itself. At least since the advent of agriculture some 10,000 years ago, these records show that humans have been major players in changes to the physical environment on local and regional scales. The origin and spread of agriculture, for example, has trans­ formed vegetation, soils and animal life.

By studying the past, we know that social sys­ tems change and we can document these changes. The larger a society's population, the more apparent the episodes of growth, consoli­ dation or collapse. For example, every long­ running, urbanized region that has been studied in detail- such as Mesoamerica, Mesopotamia and Europe- has undergone episodes of rapid demographic growth akin to Demography those of today, and has experienced at least one dramatic collapse. Thus, over the very long A significant factor in the widening scope of term, we observe periods of growth, consolida­ global change is the world's growing human tion and decline and can unravel the complex population. Increasing populations pose interaction of social forces and environmental significant risks and challenges to the world's change. We can apply this knowledge to pre­ ecosystems, forcing settlement in new areas dicting what may happen in modern societies and raising the demand for resources. It has if events continue along a certain course. been estimated that 7,000 years ago, Earth's population totaled about five million, similar Study of modern culture and cultures of the in size to today's Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. recent past gives insight into the diverse Demographers estimate that Earth supports strategies humans have adopted to confront 5.5 billion people, a thousand times more than the uncertainty, depletion of resources, risk and 7,000 years ago. If today's population were catastrophes that often characterize global distributed evenly over all the world's land change. Anthropologists traditionally study area, your nearest neighbor would be about people who are the basic producers of the 500 feet from you. Demographers predict that world's food. These diverse cultures often use by the year 2030, the world's population will crops and techniques that are not seen in the expand to 8.3 billion (based on a 1.1 percent industrialized world. Thus, the study of growth rate). Everyone's nearest neighbor cultural diversity is analogous to biodiversity: would then be only 400 feet away. it has given and will continue to give humans adaptive potential to meet a wide range of Such predictions of human population derive changing circumstances. Such studies docu­ from a combination of empirical data from ment how humans exploit diverse environ­ census and registration records and from ments using crops, foods and fuels that lie sophisticated models of population-related outside the domain of international trade and variables (fertility, mortality or migration). commerce. For example, analyzing the Although population is increasing worldwide, practices of cropping, herding and managing significant regional variations exist in the natural resources and the vastly different forms densities and rates of growth, and thus in the of social organization (particularly those of effect of population on local environments. non-industrial peoples) n1ay help us evaluate Differential human migration and increasing alternative strategies for dealing with environ­ population will lead to new demands for mental change. In this way, anthropology rais­ regional resources, produce new regional es awareness of how human societies have sur­ concentrations of pollutants and ultimately vived and thrived in differing environments. affect th e global environment.

Anthropology, as well as other social science Demographers increasingly incorporate disciplines, reveal that potentially there are economic, political and cultural data to explain many, not few, solutions to global problems, different patterns of population growth. The and that solutions must be tailored to local results of their analyses and predictions of conditions. Diversification, rather than special­ population dynamics can help us understand ization, has been the traditional mode of adap­ the risks and challenges to local ecosystems. A tation by successful non-industrial peoples. It thorough understanding of regional demo­ is possible that, with a global approach to graphic patterns combined with comparisons environmental issues, diversity will be recog­ among nations will expand analyses into nized as an important strategy to deal with problems of human population movement and uncertainties introduced by global change and consequences for global change. local circumstances.

19 If Today's Population Were Evenly Distributed .. . offer a comparative advantage. Sometimes, this means using available inexpensive labor or I I exploiting certain characteristics of the ' ' surrounding environment, like arable land, I th ere would be 500 feet from yo u I minerals or water resources. The ensuing to the nearest neighbor economic grow th and opportunities can attract ~ ~ more people to the relevant area, eventually I 7 straining local resources. This demand for goods and services generates a stream of I ... by the year 2030 only 400 feet l revenue, which is used to pay laborers and service providers. Political Science Governments, how they enact policies and the Po l~ti ca l authorities or regulatory agencies can effects these policies have on global change deode on how to best control economic and provides an important focus for study. social strains. If water is in short supply and Political institutions and systems define the drought conditions prevail, for example, a local way individual interests are translated into governing body may introduce water conser­ social goals, laws and regulations. Political vation or rationing rules. Such regulations systems and poli cies can have a sudden impact may help relieve the strains on water on the spatial distribution of a population, as resources, but m.ay exacerbate other problems, w ell as on its size and health. Oppressive gov­ such as fire hazards. ernment policies may lead people to seek relief, creating the conditions for mass exodus. More Economic systems also act as a filter through lenient policies, on the other hand, stimulate which hun1an preferences and expectations conditions that attract immigrants and refugees fl ow. Free market systems, for example, tend and that may fos ter wealth. to reflect individual interests. The output of economic systems is partially driven by the Political science also focuses on the processes market forces of supply and demand and par­ and dynamics of how people and institu tions tially by political regulation and taxation. The seek to control the distribution of resources flo w of capital and labor through an economy and wealth. Political systems affect these can be altered by policy choices; for example, processes through differing definitions of by raising the price of particular commodities property rights. In this way, some political through taxation (i. e., tariffs and gas taxes), or systems promote equity, while others concen­ by fa voring certain forms of investment trate wealth. Political scientists also study through regulation or tax breaks. For example, international institutions and the process of the provision to deduct mortgage interest achieving the sort of international cooperation payments can stimulate the demand for house that will be required to slow global change. construction and construction materials, and thus influence environmental conditions.

Economics Economic systems that encourage individual choice (as distinct from the social choices of Because economic activity and the resulting political systems) also attract populations. political regulation are driving forces behind Prosperity stimulates demands on resources much of what human beings do as they inhabit and on populations, but can also foster innova­ the planet, these systems also drive many tion and invention. These factors in turn human-induced global change phenomena. change the mix of resources in an' e nv i ro~m e nt Understanding economic activity involves and the demand placed on them. Gradually, investigating both the source of global change global environmental processes respond to and the potential for abating the change. political and economic dynamics, leading to stress in some areas and relief in others. For example, entrepreneurs focus their energies on features of the environment that

20 The Human Interactions Working Group

Christopher Achen (Ph.D., Politica l Jae Edmonds (Ph.D., Economics, Urs Luterbacher (Ph.D., Political Science, Yale University, 1974), is a Duke University, 1974) is technica l Science, Graduate Institute of professor of political science at the leader of Economic Programs at the International Studies, 1974), is a polit­ University of Michiga n. His research Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, ical scientist teaching at the Graduate in vestiga tes how effectively govern­ Washington, D.C. office, and the Institute of Interna tional Studies, ment programs develop policies as leader of th e Policy Programs within Geneva, Switzerland. His research th ey apply to issues of national secu­ the Pacific North west Laboratory's includes global modeling of political rity. He also studies how govern­ Global Studies Program. His current processes, including the strategic ments make decisions, form policies research fo cuses on energy and green­ interactions among powers. Dr. and cooperate on an international house gas emissions and the effects of Luterbacher also studies scenarios of level on environmental matters. climate change on human and natural future energy consumption, substitu­ systems. Dr. Edmonds is best known tion effects and government policies Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (Ph.D., for his work, with Dr. John Reilly and relating to this issue. Politica l Science, University of others, on the "Edmonds/Reilly" Michigan, 1971), is a political scientist model of long-term global energy and Frederic L. Pryor (Ph.D., Economics, and senior fellow at the Hoover greenhouse gas emissions. Ya le University, 1962), is a professor Institution at Stanford University and of economics at Swarthmore College. professor at the University of Frank Hole (Ph.D., Anthropology, His research focuses on comparing Rochester (New York). His research University of Chicago, 1961), is a pro­ the performance of economic systems, focuses on the design of ra tiona! fessor of anthropology at Yale where performance includes environ­ choice models, decision making in the University and curator of archaeology mental variables. Currently, Dr. context of international relations, con­ in the Peabody Museum. He has Pryor is working on two projec ts: a flict/ cooperation models and models studied the origins, spread and devel­ study of the agricultural system in to forecast policy choices. opment of agricultural societies. His several formerly communist nations research currently focuses on north­ in the past two decades; and a study Paul Demeny (Ph.D., Economics, east Syria in the Middle East, investi­ of the evolving institutional structure Princeton University, 1961), is an gating the interrelati onships among of all sectors of the American econo­ economist and demographer. He is a climatic and environmental change my in the next few decades. distinguished scholar at the and human culture and development. Population Council, an independent Ellen Wiegandt (Ph.D., research and technical assistance Stephen Kowalewski (Ph.D., Anthropology, University of organization in New York City. Dr. Anthropology, University of Arizona, Michigan, 1977), is an anthropologist Demeny's scientific work centers on 1976), is an anthropologist at the at the University of Geneva, Geneva, population dynamics, economic University of Georgia. He focuses his Switzerland. Her research focuses on growth and the economic aspects of research on comparative human the relationships among demograph­ demographic change. ecosystems, economi c history and the ics, land use patterns and cultural evolution of social ecosystems on a rules and the interrelationships of Allan M. Din (Ph.D., Theoretical regional scale. He currently conducts these social dimensions with impor­ Physics, University of Gothenburg, field studies in southern Mexico and tant climate factors. 1974), is a physicist and information the southeastern United States. system specialist at the International Gary Yohe (Ph.D., Economics, Yale Academy of the Environment, William Kuhn (Ph.D., University, 1975), is a professor of Geneva, Switzerland. Dr. Din has Astrogeophysics, University of economics at Wesleyan University been working in several interdiscipli­ Colorado, 1966), is a professor of and chairs the Public Affairs Center nary areas involving environment Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space there. He co ncentrates his research and security, environmental impacts Science at the University of Michigan. on applied microeconomic theory, of war, decision making and expert He is also the Science Manager for environmental economics, climate system technology, remote sensing CIESIN and initiated and organized change and adaptive decisions to and arms control. In recent years, Dr. the efforts of the Human Interactions changes in global warming that might Din has been involved in applica tions Working Group session in Aspen, be posed under uncertain conditions. of remote sensing data and Colorado. Dr. Kuhn's prior research Dr. Yohe currently chairs a working Geographic Information Systems has been devoted to studying Earth's group on economic data applicable to (GIS) to global change research. climate and atmosphere and how it environmental issues for the has changed over geologic time. International Social Science Council's Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme.

21 The Social Process Diagram

The Human Interactions Working Group factors that shape values and the preferences of developed the Social Process Diagram during a individuals and social groups. These values and six-day meeting at the Aspen Global Change preferences help shape the choices we make. Institute. To focus and guide the Working Group's efforts, Dr. Kuhn asked CIESIN researchers Drs. Urs Luterbacher and Ellen How do people organize and Wiegandt to prepare a white paper exploring implement their activities? the links between climate and society. This Within the domain defined by a culture's history white paper helped the Working Group debate and experience, societies must devise ways to fundamental questions about humans and achieve the goals set by their preferences. All their relationship with global environmental societies have developed institutions. Some are change. These questions included: society-wide and formal, like political institu­ tions. Others organize people into smaller How do people conceptualize what groups within society, such as families, they choose and what they do? churches, corporations and universities. Analyzing the structure of these institutions and Human values and behavior are conditioned evaluating the processes of decision-making by culture and cultural history. To understand within them can reveal how certain actions and present and future attitudes and decisions, it is policies are chosen over others. important to consider cultural and historical

22 How many people are there and How do people make a living? what is the nature of their internal Producing goods and services assures that divisions? individuals and societies survive. The ways of organizing basic activities also affect how the People live in every habitable place on Earth. environment is perceived and used. Populations can be described by the size of Understanding the economic domain, there­ their groups and divided into subgroups fore, is fundamental to any study of the according to age, sex or social divisions like interactions between humans and their natural class, ethnic group, tribe or caste. Absolute environment. In its broadest sense, the numbers of people as well as their distribution economy includes the distribution of factors in space and into social groups affect the ways of production; resources such as land, capital, they organize and carry out their activities. labor and raw materials; and the types of tech­ Health parameters influence the differential nology available to exploit these resources. size and growth of the various subgroups and Analyzing the economic system also includes are thus relevant to understandina the struc- t:J studying how goods and services are produced, ture and developn1ent of different populations. distributed and consumed. Furthermore, changes in economic organization can only be evaluated with reference to how a society is growing and developing.

Where do people live? What is the physical nature of their habitat? Local environments provide the physical con­ text within which a society's activities occur. Some small-scale operations affect global scale environmental processes, and global changes ~lso modify local conditions. Studying the l~nks between human activities, where people live, the characteristics of these environments and how humans and their environments influence one another, are at the heart of the Social Process Diagram.

23 A Dynamic Tool for Understanding Global Change

As the Working Group discussed the previous questions and as participants shared their expertise, the Social Process Diagram took shape. The questions helped the group define the building blocks, and the links among then1, that create the Social Process Diagram.

To understand the Diagram, it is helpful to divide it into its individual parts. Together, three elements constitute an integrated, dynamic tool for analyzing the human dimen­ sions of global change. These three elements, described in the next three sections, are:

The Structure. The seven building blocks, six which define human social systems and one which represents natural systems, constitute the Diagram's structural framework.

The Connections. The links between building blocks create a process diagram, which defines fundamental driving forces of environmental change. Specific scenarios show how output from one category provides input to another. This form of the Diagram is used to launch discussions and research about the human dimensions of global change.

The Dynamics. Because human interactions occur within certain geographic locations and over certain time periods, the dimensions of space and time are important to understanding how the Diagram can be used.

24 The Structure: different times reveals the great diversity of strategies adopted to confront the challenges of The Seven Building an uncertain environment. Technologies, Blocks economies, political organizations and institu­ tions, and social arrangements have varied through time and across space. These varying The seven building blocks that create the cultural histories have shaped the way people Diagram's structural framework are: perceive and interact with their environment. Recognizing these long-term determinants is essential to predicting potential responses to Fund of Knowledge and Experience current environmental changes. It is also a Every society is the outcome of its history. reminder that humans have always defined Over millennia and generations, humans have and perceived "nature" in cultural terms. developed techniques to adapt to their natural environment and have established rules to reg­ Preferences and Expectations ulate relations among individuals and groups. The Fund of Knowledge and Experience refers From the Fund of Knowledge people define to the understanding people have of their nat­ their preferences and expectations, which ural and social environments, and to the tech­ reflect the culturally defined constraints and nology they have developed to exploit the opportunities that shape individual actions. resources their culture defines as relevant. The Expectations refer to an individual's assess­ study of people in different places and at ment of how likely he or she will achieve

25 Factors of Production and Technology, including resources such as: Labor, Land, Capital, Raw Material and Energy The resources and technology people use to produce goods and services make up this category. Production and consumption act as inputs and outputs to changes that may occur in the economic system. This category helps us trace what elements enter the system, how they are modified and what emerges at the end of the process. The production process is gen­ personal goals. This assessment can take vari­ erally dependent on inputs such as: capital, ous forms and will reflect the individual's atti­ land, labor, raw materials, energy, and the tude toward different kinds of uncertainty. A infrastructures of technology, communication culture's history, reflected in the Fund of and transportation. Knowledge and Experience, sets the bound­ aries of acceptable risk-taking behavior. Some All of these can be described as outputs of cultures, for example, give more leeway than processes specified by other relationships on others to individuals to consume and trans­ the Diagram. Furthermore, production form natural resources. Overall, an individ­ systems are defined by the interaction among ual's goals are expressed as preferences, which relevant factors at a given moment. For are defined within a particular cultural context example, land is affected by climate, thus tying and chosen by evaluating alternatives. the category explicitly to Global Scale Environmental Processes; the way land is exploited is influenced by cultural tradition

26 and settlement patterns. Finally, the potential labor force is determined by the number of people considered employable and of appropriate age, and affected by processes such as marriage, birth, death, immi­ gration and emigration.

Economic Systems Economic systems determine how people produce and con­ sume goods and how wealth is distributed and evolves. The Diagram's category of Economic Systems is not limit­ ed to market systems. It also encompasses peasant and traditional economies, where markets play a sectors of the economy that are regulated by reduced role, as well as centrally planned and market forces. Thus, this type of system must mixed-market arrangements. now be defined as a split market/ centrally planned economy. In this context, it is useful to distinguish among three different systems of production The coexistence of different systems of produc­ and consumption. Industrial market tion and consumption characterize a third type economies, mixed market/ centrally planned of economic organization. Developing coun­ systems and economies of developing coun­ tries have both a market-based industrial and tries differ in the ways they use resources and agricultural sector and a peasant agricultural how they organize consumption and produc­ component. The market sector operates tion. An industrial market system embodies according to standard relations of supply and an economic sector in which decisions to pro­ demand. The peasant agricultural sector is duce and consume are made by individuals influenced by household decisions that may or and industries. Although the government may not be determined by market forces. does not make most direct decisions regarding production and consumption, it may steer the "Real world" countries and regions may com­ process through various indirect measures, bine different mixes of these broadly drawn such as taxation, quality regulation and limits economic categories. For example, developing on wastes such as pollution. countries can be compared according to the size of their peasant sectors. Mixed market/ In a mixed market/ centrally planned system, centrally planned countries may also contain significant segments of the economy are traditional agricultural sectors, as well as subject to government control. Governments different ratios of market to government­ directly determine levels and types of produc­ controlled sectors. The general concept of the tion and consumption of key goods and Social Process Diagram accommodates all services. Decisions derive primarily from these forms of economic organization. political goals rather than supply and demand. In recent years, nearly all centrally planned systems have come to include more and more

27 The characteristics of population at any given moment will also affect its evolution. Various techniques allow social scientists to view population dynamically so that by calculating marriage, birth and death rates, predictions can be made about the future size of populations by region or by subgroup. The different rates in these areas are often related to health factors, which constitute an important component of population.

Political Systems and Institutions Population and Social Structure Institutions and organizations ranging from The world's growing population is one of the families to governments influence policy for­ most important factors contributing to global mation and the way society is organized. The environmental change. An assessment of Social Process Diagram accommodates a wide global population as well as knowledge about variety of institutions and organizations, as the its regional distribution and social structural descriptions of the Economic System and divisions are crucial elements in determining Population categories have shown. Political the demands placed on resources and evaluat­ and other institutions have differed vastly ing whether regions can fulfill these demands. through time and currently vary greatly from Furthermore, the waste products generated place to place. In the description of the econo­ from resource use can pollute the environment. my it was suggested that there was a relation­ ship between market systems and political Population can be defined statically in terms of openness. Within market systems, for exam­ its size, distribution and the social categories ple, if the political sectors are open or democra­ that subdivide it. Theoretically, population tic, the government is more likely to respond to counts can be made at any level of aggregation, public opinion expressed through voting and but usually the accounting is done in relation lobbying. The role of other institutions and to a political or geographic unit (commonly the local political arrangements will be less nation). In this context, the overall count may dependent on the government and thus be distinguished by age or sex, with these often relatively effective. attached to spatial criteria. Authoritarian systems tend to subordinate In addition to the breakdown according to most other institutions- from the family to the demographic criteria, a population can be economy- to the political options of the central described in terms of its social structure. This government. Subordinate bureaucracies, such allows researchers to assess the types of divi­ sions that characterize particular societies. These would include distinctions among sub­ groups such as ethnicity, class, caste or clan. Both demographic and social structural categories are relevant to global change because they imply particular behavior. Regions with different age and sex distribu­ tions would likely have dissimilar birth rates, migration patterns and labor force participa­ tion, all of which would affect resource use and production. as the ministries, the army, the police or the structure of the ruling political party, might be important in such systems because they influ­ ence the outcome of the authoritarian decision­ making process. In developing countries, the political system, like the economic system, can often be split between a weak national level and a strong local level dominated by ethnic and kin-based loyalties.

Global Scale Environmental Processes The physical, chemical and biological processes and their interactions that affect global change are represented by the Bretherton Diagram, as discussed previously. On the Diagram, this is labeled "Global Scale Environmental Processes." Thus, the six human dimension building blocks will not only interact among themselves, but will link to Global Scale Environmental Processes (i.e., the Bretherton Diagram) through the various driving forces. Driving forces originating from the six building blocks and leading to Global Scale Environmental Processes indicate human activities affecting global change. Driving forces originating from Global Scale Environmental Processes and leading to the social science building blocks express global change impacts on human activities.

The relationships among natural science processes for specific scenarios within Global Scale Environmental Processes are not includ­ ed in this effort. A complete evaluation of a particular global change issue consisting of both natural and social processes would require analyzing driving forces within the Bretherton Diagram. Potential links between the Bretherton and the Social Process Diagrams and within the Social Process Diagram itself are presented in "The Diagram in Action: Three Potential Scenarios," later in this document.

29 The Connections: The Processes Linking the Building Blocks

Taken together, the Diagram's building processes, the Diagram can be used in blocks define the Diagram's structural frame­ two ways. First, on a general level, it can work. Each of the six categories represents an help clarify how researchers from different area of human activity. To gain a complete disciplines can work together on a particular picture of global change, however, none of issue. For example, demographers can provide these categories can be considered in isolation. demographic rates to economists to look at the evolution of the labor force; political scientists Building blocks are linked by processes, in can share election data with anthropologists which elements from one category influence and sociologists analyzing the evolution of the evolution of elements within another. By attitudes toward immigrants from environ­ specifying the nature of relationships among mentally stressed regions; or archaeologists the various categories, the Diagram becomes a can show how new technologies can lead to process diagram, expressing the dynamic loss of knowledge about environmental quality of these interactions. When applied to a diversity. Economists, political scientists and specific global change issue, the Diagram high­ psychologists can incorporate these data into lights the complexity of the linkages among their study of how decisions about production social processes and with the environment. and consumption are made. The Diagram is thus useful for presenting a map for inter-disci­ Population growth, for example, creates new plinary research. demands for resources and more waste and pollutants. Economic growth and techno­ Second, on a more specific level, the linkages logical change will alter the nature of goods among building blocks can be defined as and services produced. The evolution of various types of data sets needed to analyze a governmental and international policies and global change scenario. For example, a popu­ regulations will affect economic and social lation is linked to the economy through demo­ incentives and thus modify human-environ­ graphic rates, which provide quantifiable ment interactions. Over time, preferences and information. This permits the definition of expectations will also influence behavior. present and future potential labor force size and composition. Thus, the process diagram The labels on the Diagram's arrows (pages acquires empirical content when a specific 32-33) are examples of driving forces that global change scenario is analyzed. How an influence and are influenced by global environ­ issue is analyzed and what variables are mental change. These labels will, in general, be introduced, create specific links that connect different for each issue analyzed, and will two or more categories. The Diagram can help depend upon the nature of the interactions that reveal interactions among categories and a particular issue creates. As the arrows suggest causal relationships among given indicate, the outputs of one category are the phenomena. inputs to another. These inputs and outputs allow researchers to analyze the dynamics In these ways, the Diagram can be as simple or of a process and the relationships complex as the researcher and the issue being among categories. investigated require. The next major section presents three detailed examples of specific Once the building blocks are global change scenarios that have been dynamically linked by various analyzed using the Social Process Diagram.

30 The Dynamics: The Dimensions of Space and Time

To define the processes operating A way to define speed is in terms of human life among the seven categories for a particular cycles: a slow timescale is one longer than a global change issue, we must understand both human lifetime (more than 70 years); a fast the issue being studied and whether it is being timescale refers to a process occurring during less analyzed on a regional or global scale. Because than a generation (about 25 years); and a moder­ human phenomena occur within a certain geo­ ate timescale refers to an interval between a graphic location and over a certain time period, generation and a human lifetime. Processes such the dimensions of both space and time must be as national industrial modernization, for exam­ considered when using the Diagram. ple, can occur over 20-30 years, while others, such as human migration, can happen much The box surrounding the entire Diagram defines faster. its spatial limits when a local or regional issue is being analyzed. Certain elements, represented Timescale is a key element when the Diagram is by the arrows crossing into and out of the put into action, because it helps define which surrounding box, influence the issue from out­ areas will be most relevant when evaluating an side the region. A problem of coastal flooding, issue. Analyzing the speed at which a process for example, would particularly affect a specific occurs can determine what moves so slowly that region. In this case, data could be required on it is a "given" element (exogenous) of a problem, regional population, local agricultural tech­ or what moves quickly enough to be considered nology and practices, and regional governments. integral to the problem (endogenous). Thus, the system is an "open" one and the national or global influences would be represent­ If a process occurs slowly enough, the output ed as arrows entering the Diagram (such as trade from that particular category may be negligible flows), while the effect of the region on a nation to the issue being considered if there are other, or the world would be represented by arrows faster occurring processes from other categories. leaving the Diagram (such as emigration). If an For example, the Fund of Knowledge and issue is being analyzed on a truly global scale, Experience changes slowly over the lifetime of an the box surrounding the seven driving forces individual and over generations in a society. would not be present. This Fund of Knowledge and Experience helps shape a society's·Preferences and Expectations. The Fund of Knowledge and Experience is out­ The preferences or goals of individuals generally side the Diagram's spatial limits. This category change slowly, but this change flows rapidly to incorporates a society's history and understand­ the political and economic arenas. Expectations ing of the world. Its beliefs and practices are are shaped by such preferences, as well as the derived from these past experiences, and current power competing groups possess to achieve their decisions and behavior become part of the goals in the face of environmental, political history. and economic constraints.

The speed at which various processes operate Analyzing the speed of a process is difficult; must also be taken into account. The impact of driving forces can have multiple speeds human-induced changes on the environment or can even change direction. The unfold over different time scales, depending on speed at which processes operate is the particular path a process follows through the crucial to understanding global Diagram. Understanding a process also means environmental change. understanding where the process is in its temporal cycle and the length of that cycle.

31 Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change

Accumulation of Knowledge and Experience Social Process Diagram

Change in Expectations

Note: This diagram shows representative labels for connections between building blocks. The Aspen Global Change Institute By John Katzenberger, Director, Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen, Colorado

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI), The AGCI's interdisciplinary approach to study­ located in Colorado's Rocky Mountains, ing global change is unique, making its goals provided a conducive intellectual and physical consistent with CIESIN's. Increasingly, global setting for the CIESIN-sponsored Human change organizations are fostering more integra­ Interactions Working Group to discuss how tion among natural science and social science people live and work within social systems and disciplines and providing more time for it to how these activities relate to global change. occur. While this is not an easy integration to achieve, efforts by organizations such as CIESIN Founded in 1990, the AGCI is a division of the and AGCI will allow scientists time to explore Windstar Foundation, an environmental educa­ and learn about other disciplines. tion program headquartered in Snowmass, Colorado. The AGCI is a coalition of public, Our challenge in the next decade is to assemble private and nonprofit organizations, including the data, the ideas and the models that exceed the National Aeronautics and Space the limits of separate, single-discipline research Administration (NASA), the United Nations and forge new models of interdisciplinary Environment Programme and the Amway research that equally embrace the natural and Corporation. This partnership illustrates how social sciences. CIESIN' s effort to develop the business, government, science and education Social Process Diagram is significant because it can work together to benefit our understand­ helps answer questions, such as "Where is the ing of the environment. understanding and know-how to approach these challenges? Where are the models to guide The AGCI is a place where scientists from us in the 21st century? What tools do we have around the world can study global change and to mitigate our global impacts, to approach who environmental issues. The Institute bridges the ecosystems wisely? What is required to gap between scientists and grassroots environ­ approach these questions with confidence?" mental activity by hosting summer conferences and developing educational materials. During Human activity is a collective in which all the summer of 1991, the AGCI provided a peoples of all nations participate. In our efforts forum for more than 100 scientists, researchers to advance global change research, it is and educators from 13 countries. important to conceptualize that we, as a species, share the same air, water and ultimately the We at the AGCI were pleased to have the same land for our fundamental support. opportunity to host the Human Interactions CIESIN and AGCI recognize the growing Working Group, with the support and collabo­ international need for a common set of values, ration of CIESIN. The pathways for establish­ principles and working models from which to ing alliances between a mixed group of social practice of local, regional and global scientists and an equally diverse group of stewardship to Earth systems, including human natural science researchers are not yet obvious. systems and institutions, and to reach beyond Much experimentation is needed to foster our own species to others sharing the planet. exchange. CIESIN's session at the AGCI was a crucial first step in a thrilling and vital journey.

34 The Diagram in Action: Three Potential Scenarios

The Social Process Diagram can be Diagram can be used to represent applied to global change issues that human activities that either respond to occur on every scale from global to or initiate global environmental local. The hypothetical scenarios change, as demonstrated in the presented in this section demonstrate following scenarios. the Social Process Diagram's useful­ ness for representing and analyzing a The scenarios are presented only to particular global change issue. represent what might occur, and are not meant to predict the specific effects of Within each scenario, certain social global change. Rather, the scenarios science disciplines are called upon to demonstrate how such a change, if it provide the data and theory necessary were to occur, could impact various to analyze the particular problem social systems. The inputs and outputs under study. The Diagram allows the are examples only and do not repre­ researcher to highlight the relevant sent all the information that may be building blocks and define the inter­ required. Each scenario also shows relationships in terms of quantifiable that interesting and perhaps unantici­ data. The building blocks and linking pated research questions may emerge arrows suggest the type of data neces­ as links are explored among the sary to evaluate relationships. The Diagram's categories.

Labels for "Global Warming and Sea Level Rise" Pathways

Path A & Path B: Rate of increase Path E: Distribution of benefits Path H: Decrease in land and in sea level and decrease in usable and costs. changes in ecological distribution. land. Path F: Longer term (up to 20 Path 1: Political activism Path C: Change in population years) distribution of benefits distribution. and costs. Path D: Substitution effects, for Path G: Pressure for protection example, changes in compensation through economic caveats. and levels of employment.

Global Scale Environmental and buildings that may be flooded, however, Processes ____. Economic Systems complete adaptation would not be possible. In addition, there would be a change in relative (Path A) prices of various types of properties. These A rise in sea level could affect economic activity changes would drive the adaptation. in vulnerable areas. Because the sea level will rise slowly, a developed country could antici­ The arrow associated with Path A is labeled pate the changes and move economic activities "Rate of increase of sea level rise and decrease away from areas likely to be affected. Thus, of usable land." This output from Global Scale the link between the environmental process of Environmental Processes would be used to sea level rise and an impact on the ecori.omic determine real estate market data within the system is minimal. For people who own land Economic Systems. These would include

37 initial property and structure value gradients, fied by use. Path D brings sea level rise back anticipated rates of community growth, price into the Economic System through a second set elasticities of supply (development) and some of market reactions labeled "Substitution measure of how the risk of sea level inundation Effects," for example, changes in compensation would be internalized in markets. and levels of employment." Price elasticities of demand and elasticities of substitutions would be required to measure these effects, Global Scale Environmental taking the quantities and relative prices of other inputs into account. Processes --+ Population and Social Structure --+ Factors of Production and Technology --+ Economic Systems --+ Political Economic Systems (Paths B, Systems and Institutions (Path E) C and D) and A rise in sea level would decrease the quan­ tity of land available. This process might Economic Systems --+ Preferences have several effects. People occupying and Expectations --+ Political ocean-front land may shift inland, thus Systems and Institutions changing population distribution. This (Paths F and G) coupling occurs between Global Scale Environmental Processes and Population Coastal lands overwhelmed by flooding would and Social Structure (Path B). The change cause a change in the quantity of land avail­ in population distribution (Path C) would able. People may therefore apply pressure to then be needed to determine the market political systems to respond by either protect­ response to this impact, which would occur ing property or stopping the rising seas. The before the property is actually affected, and pressure may be direct, as from the economic may change the price of land. Land is a system to the political system, or indirect, as Factor of Production in many processes from the economic system, through preferences (agriculture, recreation, retailing, etc.) and expectations to the political system. The There is a possible direct effect of sea level degree to which people expect policy protec­ rise on this supply that should be quanti- tion by governments is important in

38 modulating adaptation. Uncertainty about other things being equal, higher seas could policy response would slow individual adapta­ mean higher and more frequent storm surges. tion in this case. The political system could address issues such as beach preservation, erosion control and The pressure to protect, a response to the replacement of damaged buildings. "Distribution of benefits and costs" is the label for Path E. It would be quantified not only by Paths Hand I, labeled "Decrease in land and the output of the Economic System through changes in ecological distribution" and Path A and Paths B, C and D, but also by the "Political activism" respectively, bring the "political distribution" of the dislocations whole range of non-economic impacts of sea noted there. Indirect pressure may also occur level rise to bear on the political debate over through changes in preferences and expecta­ how to respond. Protection of economic assets tions, but driven by longer-term distribution of may run counter to other objectives, and these benefits and costs (Paths F and G) . Sea level opposing forces should be quantified by physi­ rise impacts will be unevenly distributed, cal impact: what ecological systems are threat­ depending upon random parameters like who ened doubly by sea level rise on the one hand lives where now and empowering parameters and economically motivated protection policies like who can process information best. If the on the other? potential losers have political clout, Path E will be strong; if not, it will be weak. Links for Developing Countries (Paths B and C) Global Scale Environmental The processes described above could also occur Processes ~ Preferences and in a developing country. Populations in areas Expectations ~ Political Systems such as the mangrove forests along the Indian and Institutions (Paths H and I) subcontinent, however, would not have the same ability to adapt by moving to less affected The changes caused by a rise in sea level may land. This would create additional economic, also mobilize an environmental movement. social and political links on the Diagram. The The issue of preserving coastal wetlands, dangers of coastal flooding and destruction of which would migrate as seas rise, may also be natural resources would be a more vital issue presented to the political system. People may for this group. A link from Global Scale learn about the issue from the news media, for Environmental Processes to Factors of example, which is an element within the Fund Production and Technology (Paths B and C) of Knowledge and Experience. Because many would thus be strengthened. The link from wetlands are preserved for wildlife and public Global Scale Environmental Processes to enjoyment, pressure on the political system Population and Social Structure would also be a would be quick and direct. This process is significant process (Path B). shown by the link from Global Scale Environmental Processes through Preferences and Expectations to the Political System. This political pressure would confront the pressure to preserve economic interests. For example, protecting wetlands may prevent migration to such areas.

A similar movement may spring into action when people begin to understand how coastal storms can damage sensitive areas. With all

39 The Environmental Impact of Human Population Migration by Dr. Urs Luterbacher, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland; Dr. Ellen Wiegandt, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; and Dr. Stephen Kowalewski, University of Georgia , Athens, Georgia

The Question What effects could human rnigrations have on the environment and other elements of society?

The Analysis Global warming could change the global distribution of agriculture through coastal flooding in some areas, desertification in others and general changes in the length of the growing season. This scenario uses the Social Process Diagram to examine the effects of global warming in regions with small-scale but intensive agriculture production. Very different initial con­ ditions and processes prevail in large-scale agricultural enterprises, and the effects of climate change on market farmers in wealthy countries must therefore be studied in the conteKt of a separate scenario. Labels for "Human Population Migration" Pathways Path A: Temperature and rainfall for intention and motivation to Path G: Changes in distribution of changes: influence on amount of migrate), changes in distribution of land and agricultural labor and other cultivable land and water supplies. cultural, ethnic groups in rural resources, evolution of technology Path B: Levels of production of agri­ versus urban areas. used in agriculture. cultural products (by crop) in terms Path E: Population size and age in Path H: Folk knowledge, rate of of yields per area and assessment of sex distribution, urban/rural distrib­ adoption of new technologies, total area under cultivation. ution, demographic rates, education perception of future livelihood in Path C: Level of consumption of levels, health statistics, income agriculture. agricultural products and income distribution. Path 1: Environmental policies derived from production, percent Path F: Changing production and affecting agricultural production: and age distribution of employment consumption patterns (measure of evolution of fertilizer use, mecha­ in agriculture. labor and capital investments), nization, energy use, crop and Path D: Changes in ideal family size changes in land use, labor by sector, animal types and varieties. (survey data), migration patterns energy use, savings and investment Path J: Labor force participation, (empirical observation and survey rates, inventories of agricultural distribution of population by products. economic sector.

Global Scale Environmental highly dependent on agriculture and do not Process ---. Factors of Production have the resources to anticipate changes. The and Technology (Path A) historical record suggests that subsistence agriculture, small holders and poor farmers are Global warming could alter the global distribu­ most sensitive to environmental change. From tion of agricultural land. Its greatest impact the Middle Ages to recent United States farm could be in developing countries that are failures, hardships on family or small-scale

41 exploitations were felt especially by people in diversify their strategies and try to counteract marginal environments and operating under rising uncertainties by increasing their number marginal economic conditions (the Alps, of children. However, as the number of people north-eastern Brazil, the Sahel and the United needed for agricultural production declines, States Dust Bowl era, for example). people may move to the nearest cities or to national or even international centers of activity. Within today's developing countries, regions In this new urban environment, demographic where farming is already at a subsistence level patterns may change in response to different could be particularly vulnerable. Small land employment opportunities and constraints, holders with labor- rather than capital-inten­ changing the social structure of the migrant sive operations might be especially affected. population. The presence of culturally differ­ Populous, low-coastal areas without tech­ ent populations could increase labor market nology or capital means to oppose flooding segmentation and ultimately exacerbate racial, might see a shrinking of their land, livelihood national or ethnic tensions. The stability of the base and fresh water supplies. political system could be threatened as a result of confrontations among different social groups. Factors of Production and Technology _____. Economic Systems Population and Social Structure _____. (Path B) Economic Systems (Path E) In affected agricultural areas, shifts in land and In some instances, migration may improve crop use may occur, altering patterns of pro­ rural conditions by increasing local income duction and consumption. Some previously through remittances to areas from which untouched areas such as forests and pasture people have migrated. Likewise, return land might now be converted to land for agri­ migration may improve an area by an increase cultural production. Climate change could in educational level. On the other hand, urban also shift cattle production away from some problems could be aggravated as crowding areas and introduce it into others. This shift and poverty impair health conditions and would affect the demand for labor in both indirectly cause unemployment. Urban areas because of the differences in labor inten­ migration and its accompanying problems may siveness of the two types of production. There also inhibit some technological expansion would thus be secondary consequences of toward more capital intensive processes as climate change in regions where changes in the resources are diverted to social services. production system would reduce opportunities for small land holders or wage laborers to make a sufficient living from the land. Economic Systems _____. Factors of Production and Technology _____. Preferences and Expectations _____. Economic Systems _____. Preferences Fund of Knowledge and Experience and Expectations _____. Population (Paths F, G and H) and Social Structure (Paths C and D) As previously farmed areas are abandoned or When people's livelihood is threatened, one as systems of production change, knowledge response may be to move to other locations about some specific crops and agricultural where they hope conditions will be better. techniques may be lost, changing choices in Rural populations may migrate to other rural methods of production. This may ultimately areas less influenced by climate change. In reduce the fund of knowledge and experience these small-holder agricultural areas, birth and and restrict capacity for future adaptations. death rates may remain high as households

42 Aerial view of Baltimore, Maryland USA

Political Systems and Institutions _____. Economic Systems -----. Population and Social Structure (Paths I and J) As policies to decrease greenhouse gases are developed within the political arena, they may have an impact on the production system through potential restrictions on use of agricul­ tural machinery and fertilizer. This may affect levels of production and therefore the liveli­ hood of rural populations, possibly modifying demographic rates and health parameters.

43 Energy and the Environment: The Effects of a Tax on Fossil Fuel Emissions by Dr. Ja e Edmonds, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Washington, D.C.

The Question What effect could a tax on fossil fuel carbon emissions have on the levels of emissions and thus the human dimensions of global change?

The Analysis The analysis of this issue begins with the premise that a policy instrument has been chosen to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This premise implies, among other things, that governmenJ_ has concluded that continuing to pro­ duce and consm;ne energy as in the past would impose costs and warrant ways 'ety produ u nergy. Varieties of other oli- o available, includin tartd relate ch- on flhe emissi'lll!~f> Labels for "Energy and the Environment" Pathways

Path A: Subsidies and taxes, regula­ Path D: Actual population by age, Path G: Temperature and precipita­ tions and whether or not the econo­ gender, education and in- and out­ tion data, nitrogen deposition and my under investigation is centrally­ migration. saltwater intrusions. managed or free-market. Path E: Investments, capital stocks Path H: Tax revenues, changes in Path B: Wages, interest rates and and labor and land resources. income, and international transfers rental rates on land. Path F: Rates of human emissions of, of wealth from tradeable emissions permits. Path C: Desired fertility rates. for example, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur dioxide, CFCs and their substitutes.

Political Systems and Institutions could emerge from domestic deliberations or ___. Economic Systems (Path A) from international negotiations. The magnitude . I and timing of the tax would depend as much on The initial! step in the process is a political near-term fiscal and political considerations as determination that a policy intervention is on a long-term concern for the global habitat. desired. A carbon tax would likely be the out­ To implement a tax, institutional arrangements come of a political process grappling with an would be required to monitor compliance. array of interrelated issues. The carbon tax

45 These arrangements could in themselves have Examples of the output from Political Systems costs and implications that range from trivial and Institutions required by the Economic to major. A simple tax on energy which was System are subsidies and taxes, regulations proportional to the carbon-to-energy ratio of and whether or not the economy is centrally­ fuels would require relatively little new infra­ managed or free-market. structure. On the other hand, if tree planting to absorb carbon was allowed as a mechanism for reducing net carbon release to the atmosphere, Economic Systems---+ Factors of such a system could entail development of Production and Technology (Path B) institutions to centrally monitor all land use in The role of a tax in an economic system is to the entire region of implementation. communicate the relative desirability of alter­ native actions. Since a tax on carbon means Coal Mine that coal is taxed more per unit of energy than either oil or natural gas, there is a clear incen­ tive for economies to conserve taxed fuels and to substitute among various fossil fuels. Energy conservation, that is, using technologies to use energy efficiently in such activities as space conditioning, lighting and cooking, would gen­ erally be encouraged. So, too, would the intro­ duction of sources of energy that release no carbon directly into the atmosphere.

In the short-term, existing conservation and non-carbon energy supply technologies would be encouraged. In addition, there would be a smaller substitution of other goods and services for energy services. That is, in colder climates, some rooms might no longer be heated, or transportation activities might be reduced. The existence of the tax would also stimulate the development of new conservation and non-carbon energy supply technologies.

To be effective, a carbon tax would have to be placed on the production, consumption and importation of fuels. If the tax were placed only on final consumption of fuels and fossil fuel production were not taxed, then fossil fuel use in the taxed region would fall, but fossil fuel production would not. This would lead to a decrease in the world price of fuels, and an increase in fossil fuel consumption in non­ taxing regions. If, on the other hand, fossil fuel supplies were taxed, this would have the effect of driving production in the taxing region from the world market, but not necessarily reducing consumption. If credits could be obtained for the capture and Factors of Production and disposal of carbon from the use of fossil fuels, Technology ~ Economic Systems then technologies to use these fuels without releasing carbon into the atmosphere would (Path E) also be encouraged. If the tax was not applied If there were no effects from the disposition of globally, there would be a tendency for partici­ tax revenues and the economic system was pating countries to shift production of goods efficient, the effect of a carbon tax would be to and services that released carbon to non­ divert some resources from the production of participat~ ng countries. In a~~itio~1, the final goods and services to produce non-fossil reductionj in demand by parhClpatmg coun­ energy supplies and energy conserving tech­ tries would tend to reduce the world price of nologies. Not all regions and productive fossil fuels. sectors of the taxing society would be affected equally. Coal producing regions would experi­ The Economic System would provide such ence greatest declines in employment and informatibn as wages, interest rates and rental income. Other fossil fuel producing regions rates on land. and sectors would also be affected, but to a lesser extent.

Preferences and Expectations ~ Some regions have imposed energy subsidies Population and Social Structure ~ that result in general market inefficiencies. In Economic Systems (Paths C and D) such places, the imposition of a carbon tax might actually improve overall economic The demographic character of the population efficiency and increase production, while affects the potency of a carbon tax in many reducing fossil fuel carbon emissions. subtle ways and should be considered in overall policy decisions. The demographic One of the most important questions that arises structure of the population will affect the total in the analysis of carbon taxes is: what use of energy and fossil fuels. The scale of happens to the money collected? Carbon taxes population alone, and in particular the scale of that are high enough to stabilize net fossil fuel the working-age population and its level of carbon emissions potentially generate large tax education and health, affects the overall level revenues. If the revenues are used to retire of economic activity and thereby the scale of government debt, or are added to government human activities. For example, the degree to savings, then the effect of the tax will be to which males and females participate in the encourage investment in the society. This, in workforce depends upon preferences and turn, will lead to a higher future gross national expectations, and in turn has a profound effect product (GNP). The increase in societal on the overall level and nature of human savings would likely give future generations activity. Similarly, the age structure of the higher standards of consumption, but reduce population affects the conduct of such fossil present consumption of goods and services. fuel using activities such as automobile and The higher future GNP would generally imply motorcycle use. that emissions and reductions in the long term would be less than expected. If, on the other Desired fertility rates (Path C) would be an hand, taxes were returned to consumers, the important input to Population and Social effect of the redistribution would be to Structure, which would provide information temporarily increase consumption, but reduce on the actual population by age, gender, savings. The resulting long-term decline of education and in- and out-migration to the GNP would reduce emissions, but at the Economic System (Path D) . expense of a materially poorer society.

47 International transfers of revenues from carbon Global Scale Environmental taxes from economically developed regions to Processes ---.. Factors of Production developing regions have been discussed as a means to induce participation by developing and Technology (Path G) countries in carbon reduction programs. Such Ironically, some of the options for reducing net transfers could be very large, particularly in carbon emission to the atmosphere, such as relation to developing regions' current biomass and trees for carbon sequestration are incomes, and substantially affect the level of sensitive to climate change. Depending upon material consumption in both donating and the nature, rate and degree of climate change, receiving regions. forests planted to absorb carbon over the course of the next 50 to 100 years could find Investments, capital stocks and labor and land themselves growing in an inhospitable climate. resources are important inputs to the Economic It is possible, under some scenarios, that trees System. planted to remove carbon from the atmosphere could die, after a period of years, resulting in a secondary pulse of carbon from their decay. Economic Systems ---.. Global Scale Biomass crops planted for their energy content Environmental Processes (Path F) could also suffer from changing climate, though the shorter crop rotations would Production and use of fossil fuels is generally prevent any significant release of carbon from believed to be affecting the global concentra­

tion of atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02). Since accurate measurements were begun in 1958 in Mauna Loa in Hawaii, the concentra­ Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions tion of atmospheric C02 has risen from 315 parts per million volume (ppmv) to about 350 /i._~;~ ~· 6 billi on ~~,~· ~· ..· ppmv (1990). Global fossil fuel carbon emis­ sions have risen from less than an estimated ·;,;~:t.~ •.. 100 million tonnes of carbon per year in 1860, 1- reached 2.3 billion tonnes per year in 1958, and shown in tonnes of are currently about 6.0 billion tonnes per year carbo n per year (1991). These emissions to the atmosphere, combined with emissions from deforestation 1- and land use change of about 1.6 billion tonnes per year (+I- one billion tonnes per year) are considered to be the primary causes for the growth of C02 in the atmosphere. Introducing I-- a carbon tax is motivated by a desire to reduce the rate and timing of changes to the concen­ 2.3 billion tration of greenhouse gases. Such a tax, there­ fore, could be expected to reduce the rate at 1-- I-- which human activities introduce carbon into the atmosphere.

Economic Systems would provide rates of f..-- 1- human emissions of, for example, carbon diox­ ide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur dioxide, 100 mi ll ion CFCs and their substitutes to Global Scale Environmental Processes. 1860 1958 199 1

48 death and decay. The location and productivity of such crops, particularly in con­ junction with adaptations by agriculture, could be affected.

Factors of Production and Technology would receive from Global Scale Environmental Hydropower Processes, for example, temperature and precipitation data, nitrogen deposition and saltwater intrusions.

Economic Systems ---.. Political Systems and Institutions (Path H) The existence of large revenues from carbon taxes could lead to a general reassessment of government fiscal policy. There would be strong incentives to use the revenues for a wide variety of special interests. The unequal burdens of carbon taxes would also lead to political pressure to provide special assistance to regions and sectors whose populations were particularly affected. Regions with large con­ centrations of fossil fuel production and trans­ formation activities would be most likely to apply pressure for assistance. Other groups might lobby for the allocation of tax proceeds to develop new, environmentally benign technologies.

Costs imposed by carbon taxes might lead to attempts to reduce costs by increasing overall system efficiency. Institutional arrangements, such as allowing electric utilities to purchase energy cdnservation credits, have already been introduced in an attempt to improve energy market performance.

Examples of inputs to Political Systems and Institutions are tax revenues, changes in income a1rd international transfers of wealth from tradeable emissions permits.

49 Advancing Global Change Research

As previously described, national and manageable, well-defined list of important data international programs have existed for several that will handle all possible global change phe­ years to help us understand Earth as a system. nomena, the Social Process Diagram can help Recently, many organizations have begun to identify the data needed on a case-by-case basis. develop a "human dimensions" research There is also the need to begin to construct agenda that can be incorporated into existing natural/human system models to predict global change efforts. While some might argue change on timescales of decades to centuries. that the natural system should be better understood before trying to integrate efforts It is important to emphasize that an integrated with the social sciences, it seems clear that the approach to studying global environmental complexities of the social system are as great as change will challenge social and natural those in the natural sciences, and that the two scientists to communicate with each other in efforts must proceed synergistically. new ways. Although the research methods and expectations of natural and social scientists The Working Group's effort to develop the differ, there is the need for collaborative, Social Process Diagram can help integrate the interdisciplinary research. This requires more social sciences with existing research programs than natural and social scientists coming and initiate new efforts. Working with the together for a few days or a week in a workshop Social Process Diagram to identify and setting. Efforts must occur at the international prioritize the data associated with the and national levels, and also within academic processes that occur for even a single scenario institutions that can forge partnerships and can be unsettling. It is easy to become over­ encourage integrated research efforts. Unless whelmed by the amount of data that needs to global environmental change research be collected and analyzed. There is a need, transcends traditional disciplinary boundaries, therefore, to initially "divide and conquer," only marginal success will be achieved. that is, to develop a research agenda that focuses on a priority list of critical data. Specific Directions for Research Social science research agendas for global With the Social Process Diagram in mind, the climate change will differ depending upon Human Interactions Working Group suggests a whether the research is being directed toward number of directions for research, detailed understanding the processes that lead to global below. There is a significant correspondence change or toward understanding the potential among these and the research topics elaborated consequences of global change. Research by Jacobson and Price (1991) in their Framework agendas will differ for a variety of other for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global reasons, including the fact that the natural Environmental Change, and in the National science interface with social science will vary Research Council's Global Environmental Change: depending upon the type of issue being Understanding the Human Dimensions. The Social addressed. Although there will be no Process Diagram thus reflects the concerns of

50 organizations in the social science community "Impacts of Local, National and International working on issues of global environmental Social, Economic and Political Structures and change. Institutions" are primarily present within the category of Political Systems and Institutions, For example, the topics that Jacobson and Price but also appear within the definition of propose for .a concerted research effort are Economic Systems and Population and Social represented by the building blocks of the Social Structure. "Environmental Security and Process Diagram. Jacobson and Price's "Social Sustainable Development" appears implicitly Dimensions of Resource Use" are represented in the Diagram's Political Systems and by the interactions among Factors of Institutions category in the form of policy Production and Technology, Population and choices that favor a particular form of inter­ Social Structure, Economic Systems and action among social systems and between Preferences and Expectations. The study of social systems and the environment. "Land Use" and "Energy Production and Consumption" are investigations focused on There are also similarities between the National specific resources that appear in the Diagram's Research Council's recommendations and the category of Factors of Production and Social Process Diagram. Although the NRC's Technology and are linked to the Diagram's research program focuses more on the process other dimensions. "Perception and and funding for a comprehensive research Assessment of Global Environmental program, they do assert that human responses Conditions and Change" correspond to the to global change fall within seven systems. Fund of Knowledge and Experience and to The systems they identify (and the correspond­ Preferences and Expectations on the Diagram. ing Social Process Diagram building block) are: Individual perception, judgement and action (Preferences and Expectations); Markets (Economic Systems); Sociocultural systems (Population and Social Structure); Organized response at the subnational level, National policies and international cooperation (Political Systems and Institutions); and Global social change (Factors of Production and Technology, Fund of Knowledge and Experience, Preferences and Expectations, Population and Social Structure and Economic Systems).

Furthermore, the NRC proposes five social variables that affect global environmental change. These are Population Change, Economic Growth, Technological Change, Political-Economic Institutions and Attitudes and Beliefs. It is clear that these are all repre­ sented in the Social Process Diagram.

The Diagram can thus be used to develop research programs based on the recommen­ dations elaborated by Jacobson and Price or others. It has, moreover, stimulated the Working Group's reflections on these and related issues that merit further study. Health of global change on human activities. It matters a great deal if a region is characterized Many of the questions people may ask regard­ by a monoculture-type agriculture, such as ing global change will relate to the quality of cotton, or by a diversified crop or herding life. Health may be the major impacted sector system. Each agricultural method will affect for developing countries, and Earth's "vital greenhouse gas emissions differently. Property signs" (air and water quality, etc.) relate ownership also influences land use and directly to human life. Yet, if one looks at the therefore, indirectly, climate. priorities established by the various national and international agencies, there is little Various scholars have already discussed the emphasis on how health will be affected by possible inefficiencies of collective forms of global change. Indeed, one finds in global property in arguing "the tragedy of the change literature more discussion of changes in commons." Though some interpretations of health of vegetation in the biosphere than the argument oversimplify the complex distinc­ animal health, particularly human health. tions among forms of open access and carefully Thus, there is a need to identify and provide a controlled common lands (distinctions which in directory of national and international health some areas may vary for a single piece of land data sets and conduct related research. over the productive cycle), the debate calls to question the relative harm or benefit to the There must also be the capability for data environment implicit in property arrange­ transfer and integration with natural and ments. Resource mismanagement has been socioeconomic data. The major health prob­ associated with uncontrolled or common lems associated with global change, as identi­ access. Individual private forms of property fied by the medical community, include hyper­ may also lead individuals to fragment land or thermia, infectious illness, respiratory disease, to clear forests solely to maximize profits rather skin cancer and melanoma, immune suppres­ than to enhance productivity. Such practices sion, malnutrition and starvation. Most of the may or may not lead to more emissions. More scenarios that can be analyzed using the Social research on these problems is needed. Process Diagram should consider these and other health-related issues. Different demographic regimes determine each community's population struch1re and thus the size and composition of the labor force. This, in Economics, Land Use and turn, influences how property is transferred. Population Dynamics The complex interactions between demo­ The study of agricultural systems and demo­ graphic processes and patterns of inheritance graphic regimes examines both the impact of must be examined to better understand the global environmental processes on society and effects these have on land use and ultimately of human activities on the global environment. on climate and other environmental processes. Production in agricultural systems is clearly High demographic density may contribute affected by global environmental processes. directly to greenhouse gas emissions through The extent and intensity of this relationship, concentrated fuel use. A crucial component of however, is not clear. Moreover, the possibili­ demographic analyses in this context is to ties and limits of substitution effects (the examine the forces that lead to human replacement of one form of production by migration, especially from rural to urban another) are not well understood. These two regions. Research into the dynamics of areas should be prime targets for more demographic systems and their impact on intensive research. other aspects of society and environment is thus central to understanding global change. It In addition, the particular structure that agri­ is equally important to examine the effects of cultural production takes, both in terms of type climate on human health to determine the long­ of production and property arrangements, is term effects of changes in the environment to important to understanding the consequences population growth.

52 Another potential consequence of climate Energy change with profound implications for interna­ tional relations is increased emigration from Another research focus involves substitutions developing to industrialized countries. This is of one form of energy for another, and how already a sensitive issue and could become these ultimately affect total expenditures. more so if the climate evolves unfavorably in Analyzing energy demand can give useful marginal agricultural areas, or if important indications of more or less efficient uses of coastal regions are flooded. Massive migration energy and how consumers substitute among might heighten tensions, as industrial nations them. Such a perspective can suggest ways in face growing public opposition to an influx of which greenhouse gas emissions will evolve newcomers. Negotiations among countries to and may or may not be easily modified. The share the burden created by such problems possible effects of specific taxation policies in may prove complex and difficult. To under­ shaping these choices should also be studied, stand population and political distribution as is being done for carbon emissions. problems in these cases, models that deal with emigration or emission reduction questions can prove useful analytical tools.

Bolivian rainforest depletion, Landsat MSS Image

53 Political Systems Data needs will evolve over time and continual review will be needed to ensure that the data The numerous national and international collected appropriately addresses global issues. political consequences of interactions between society and global environmental processes are This methodological structure, however, must important. Many of these are distribution be innovative enough to accommodate a wide problems between and within countries and variety of variables. There is strong need for a regions. Taxation policies that attempt to ease coordinated effort to provide directory negative impacts on climate due to human assistance and data access for the purpose of activities is one example. On the international integrating natural and social science level, agreements to limit greenhouse gas information. Such a system would be useful to emissions would be another; the burden of social, natural and health scientists, policy reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the makers, resource managers and educators. accompanying consequences on each country's income would have to be distributed. This The interactions between human activities and could complicate relations between industrial­ global environmental processes outlined above ized and developing countries. lead to a research program which includes anthropologists, sociologists, economists, Such issues and their complex interactions demographers, cultural geographers, political require interdisciplinary approaches. These can scientists, health scientists and natural best be achieved with methodologies that are scientists. In addition, computer scientists able to account for phenomena that depend on should be involved to design procedures that particular locations that vary in size, and that permit different types of data and different can include processes that evolve over methodologies to be combined into a coherent, relatively long periods of time (decades to interrelated whole. Worldwide programs centuries). The systems currently used by should be constructed so that results of the social scientists to describe how things change various studies can be presented to different are usually not connected to geographical audiences in clear and meaningful ways. To locations, which is crucial to studying the reach this goal and achieve significant, complex interactions outlined in the Social integrated research results, there must be a Process Diagram. clear vision of the overarching framework and adherence to rigorous analytical standards. Taking the Next Steps Overall, these issues and their complex inter­ Studying the many aspects of environment­ actions suggest the need for creative inter­ society interactions will require considerable disciplinary approaches. The global change amounts of data. A data management struc­ community's agreement on a clear vision of ture should allow data to be both spatially and how to advance global change research in the temporally referenced. In addition, this struc­ future could help facilitate further develop­ ture should present data in a format that helps ment of such approaches. The Social Process scientists understand how a problem changes Diagram is a step toward shaping this with time and location. For example, using vision and furthering research and geographic information systems, one could understanding of hum.an interactions and imagine looking at a map of an area on a global enviromnental change. computer screen and then retrieving a set of databases with specific information for that region. These data could be of many different kinds, from both the natural and social sciences. Furthermore, the system should be capable of performing analyses and integrating data sets from different regions.

54 Appendix A For Further Reading

Clark, William C., "Scale Relationships in the Environmental Change, The International Social Interactions of Climate, Ecosystems and Societies," Science Council Standing Committee on the Human Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences, Ken11eth Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, with C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider, editors, D. Reidel assistance from UNESCO, 1990. Publishing Co., 1987. McCally, Michael, M.D., Ph.D., and Christine K. Cassel, Clark, William C., "The Human Dimensions of Global M.D., "Medical Responsibility and Global Environmental Change," Toward an Understanding of Environmental Change," Annals of Internal Medicine, Global Change: Initial Priorities for U.S. Contributions to Vol. 113, No.6, pg. 467-473, 1990. the International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme, 1986. O'Riordan, Timothy, reviewer, "Special Report: The Available from the Committee on Global Change , Earth as Transformed by Human Action," 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. Environment, Vol. 30, No.1, January /February 1988, 20418. page 25ff. "Earth System Science: Overview," Earth System Price, Martin, "Global Change: Defining the Ill­ Sciences Committee, National Aeronautics and Space Defined," Environment, Vol. 31, No.8, October 1989, Administration, Washington, D.C., 1986. page 18ff. Edelson, Edward, "Laying the Foundation," Mosaic, Rockwell, Richard C., "Institutions-The Social Science National Science Foundation, Vol. 19, No. 3/4, Research Cow1cil," Environm.ent, Vol. 32, No.7, Fall/Winter 1988, page 4ff. December 1990, page 2. Fisher, Arthur, "One Model to Fit All," Mosaic, National Silver, Cheryl Simon with Ruth S. DeFries for the Science Foundation, Vol. 19, No. 3/4, Fall/Winter National Academy of Sciences, One Earth, One 1988, page 52ff. Future: Our Changing Global Environment, National Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums, editors, Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1990. Climate Change: The Intergovernmental Panel on Stern, Paul C., Oran R. Young, and Daniel Druckman, Climate Change Scientific Assessrnent, Cambridge editors, Global Environmental Change: Understanding University Press, 1990. the Human Dimensions, National Research Council "Human Sources of Global Change," Research Strategies Report, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, National 1992. Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Turner, B.L. II, "Institutions-The Earth Transformed Washington, D.C. 20418, 1990. Program," Environment, Vol. 32, No.5, June 1990, Jacobson, Harold K. and Martin F. Price, A Framework for page 3. Research on the HumanOimensions of Global AppendixB Acronyms Used Within Text

ADC Affiliated Data Center ET Earth Transformed MSS Multi Spectral Scanner AGCI Aspen Global Change program NCAR National Center for Institute, Aspen, GIS Geographic Information Atmospheric Research Colorado Systems NASA National Aeronautics and CEES Committee on Earth and HDGECP Human Dimensions of Space Administration Environmental Sciences Global Environmental SSRC Social Science Research CIESIN Consortium for Change Progranune, a Council International Earth program established by the ISSC. UKGER United Kingdom Global Science Information Environmental Research Network ICSU International Council of Office Scientific Unions DAAC Distributed Active USGCRP United States Global Archive Center IGBP International Geosphere- Change Research EOS Earth Observing System Biosphere Programme Program ESSC Earth Systems Sciences ISSC International Social Committee Science Council AppendixC Acknowledgements

The Human Interactions Working This document was compiled Group acknowledges: through the efforts of: Mr. John Katzenberger, Director, Aspen Global Primary Authors: Draft material was submitted by Change Institute, and his staff for providing members of the Working Group. Dr. William Kulm, facilities and on-site support. Dr. Urs Luterbacher and Dr. Ellen Wiegandt developed the text from these submissions. Dr. Harold K. Jacobson, Chair, Scientific Committee of the Human Dimensions of Global Contributing Authors: Dr. Harold K. Jacobson, Environmental Change Programme, International Mr. Jolm Katzenberger, Mr. Jack Lousma, Social Sciences Council, and Director, Center for Dr. Harold A. Mooney and Dr. Richard H. Moss. Political Sh1dies, University of Michigan, for his advice in choosing the participants for the Human Text Development and Project Management: Interactions Working Group. Dr. Jacobson also Leslie Will1elm and Katie Wolf. donated his time to create a videotape reviewing previous work in the human dimensions of global Content Review and Recommendations: environmental change. Working Group Members, Mr. Robert Coullahan, Dr. Jack Eddy, Dr. Harold K. Jacobson, Dr. Sam Barnes, Director, Center for German and Mr. James Jordan, Mr. John Katzenberger, European Studies, and Professor of Comparative Dr. Richard H. Moss, Dr. Richard Rockwell, European Politics, School of Foreign Service, Dr. Michael Thomas, Dr. Billie Lee Turner II and Georgetown University, for his advice in choosing Mr. William Wallace. the participants for the Human Interactions Working Group. General Review and Editing: Norris McDowell, Leslie Will1elm and Katie Wolf. Dr. Richard Rockwell, Executive Director of the Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Editing and Assistance: Greta Bolger, Elaine Research, and Professor of Sociology at the Brown, Nancy Carroll, Carol Y. Swinehart and University of Michigan, for his advice in choosing Karen E. Vigmostad. the participants for the Hmnan Interactions Document Design and Production: Paul Grabhorn, Working Group. Cindy Faber Smith and Melody Warford.

Mr. Paul Grabhorn, President, Grabhorn Studio, Organizational Support: Beth Lawson. Washington, D.C. for producing the many versions of the Social Process Diagram during the Working Photos: Cover design & illustration: Melody Warford, Cover & Group meeting in August 1991. Inside Cover Tree Photo: © Carl R. Sam s, II. Earth Image, NASA . Page 7: Rocks, Plants, Crowd, Melody Warford; Rice Paddy, IDB; Ms. Beth Lawson, University of Michigan, for Power Lines, Dept. of Energy. Page 10: Mississippi Delta Change Pair, Dept. of Interior. Page 12: Clouds & Field Research, Paul coordinating the organizational details. Grabhorn; Senegal Group, Peace Corps; EOS Satellite, ASA. Page 14: Com puter Operator, USACE; Shanghai Landsa t, ERIM. Dr. Gayl Ness, Professor of Sociology and Page 15: Earth Image; }PL. Page 16&17: Global Bi osphere, NASA. Population Planning and International Health, Page 18: Kids & Ea rth, USACE & TASA; Page 19: Collunn, University of Michigan, co-chair of the summer Melody Warford; Rock Border, Paul Grabhorn. Page 22: Woman 1991 Aspen Global Change Institute session on Weaving, AID; Farmer, USACE. Page 23: London Stock Exchange, British Tourist Authority; Ship Unloading, AID; City Biogeochemical Cycles and Population Dynamics, Border, Melody Warford. Page 25: Parthenon, Katie Wolf. and the participants in his session for providing Page 26: Berlin Wail, German Information Center; Paper Factory, useful comments while the Working Group USACE. Page 27: Market, AID. Page 28: African Women, Peace met in Aspen. Corps. Page 29: Na tional Cathedral, Paul Grabhorn; Earth, ASA. Page 36: Underwater, OAA; Water Border, Paul Grabhorn . Page 38: San Francisco, Paul Grabhorn. Page 40: Crowd, Melody Warford; Landsat Border, ERIM. Page 43: Chesapeake Aeri al, USACE. Page 44: Cars on Bridge, Melod y Warford; Coal Car Border, USACE. Page 46: Coal Mine, BLM; Oil Rig, Forest Se rvice; Windmills, Dept. of Energy. Page 49: Hydro Dam, USACE; Nuclear Plant & Solar Panels, Dept. of Energy. Page 50: UAR Satellite, NASA. Page 51: Researcher, National Science FoLmd ati on; Wetland Border, Paul Grabhorn. Page 53: BoLi vian Rainforest Landsat, ERIM.

56 ~ ', .. \ I \ l \