Underdetermination and the Claims of Science
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University at Albany, State University of New York Scholars Archive Philosophy Faculty Scholarship Philosophy 3-2003 Underdetermination and the Claims of Science P.D. Magnus University at Albany, State University of New York, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cas_philosophy_scholar Part of the Philosophy Commons Recommended Citation Magnus, P.D. (2003) Underdetermination and the Claims of Science. PhD Thesis in Philosophy. University of California, San Diego This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Philosophy at Scholars Archive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Philosophy Faculty Scholarship by an authorized administrator of Scholars Archive. For more information, please contact [email protected]. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Underdetermination and the Claims of Science A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Philosophy by P.D. Magnus Committee in charge: Professor Paul M. Churchland Professor Donald Rutherford Professor Nancy Cartwright Professor Naomi Oreskes Professor Martin Sereno 2003 I completed my dissertation after digital technology had overtaken word pro- cessing, but before it overtook the submission and archiving of dissertations. I prepared it in LATEX, processed it as a PDF, printed it on cotton paper, and submitted it in duplicate to the Office of Graduate Studies and Research. OGSR sent both copies to the library, and one copy was forwarded to University Mi- crofilms, Inc. UMI photographed the pages so as to make a copy on microfilm, scanned the microfilm, and made the scans available as a PDF. It is a grainy, uneven scan. It is not searchable. UMI charges money for it, unless you request it from the UCSD network. It is the 21st century, and we can do better. Here is the original PDF: The fonts are fonts, and they render as vectors. The contents are fully searchable. This is available free, and you are welcome to distribute it intact for noncommercial purposes. There are, no doubt, errors in the text. There are certainly things I would do differently if I were writing it fresh. With the exception of the signature page, however, this is the dissertation exactly as I defended it in March 2003. (Committee members signed the actual physical copy, and so the signature page here has empty lines.) The bibliography contains entries for two forthcoming papers. They have since appeared; here are the full citations: ‘Underdetermination and the Problem of Identical Rivals.’ Philosophy of Science, 70(5): 1256-1264. December 2003. ‘Success, truth, and the Galilean Strategy.’ British Journal for the Phi- losophy of Science, 54(3): 465-474. September 2003. P.D. Magnus Albany, New York Summer 2006 Copyright P.D. Magnus, 2003 All rights reserved. The dissertation of P.D. Magnus is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on micro- film: Chair University of California, San Diego 2003 iii For Cristyn. Words are insufficient on this matter, so I’ll let a smile and a nod passed between us suffice. iv “Whenever you read a good book, it’s like the author is right there, in the room talking to you, which is why I don’t like to read good books.” —Jack Handy v TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page . iii Table of Contents . vi List of Figures . viii Preface . ix Acknowledgements . xi Vita, Publications, and Fields of Study . xiii Abstract . xiv I Framing the Problem . 1 1.1 A working definition . 3 1.2 Variations in the set of rivals . 5 1.2.1 Live options . 6 1.2.2 Exhaustive choices . 7 1.2.3 Exclusive choices: the problem of identical rivals . 8 1.3 Variations in scope . 18 1.3.1 Variations in possibility . 20 1.3.2 Variations in time . 22 1.3.3 Maximal scope: agnosticism and fideism . 24 1.3.4 Very narrow scope . 31 1.4 Variations in standards . 32 1.5 Top-down and Bottom-up arguments . 34 1.6 Three asides . 35 1.6.1 Aside: underdetermination and ontology . 35 1.6.2 Aside: the role of decision and choice . 36 1.6.3 Aside: the units of epistemology . 37 II Aspirations of Certainty . 39 2.1 Cartesian underdetermination . 40 2.2 From scepticism to quietism . 45 2.3 Thomas Reid’s appeal to Common Sense . 51 2.3.1 Madness . 52 2.3.2 Cognitive commitment . 54 2.4 Three further replies to the sceptic . 55 2.4.1 Impotence . 57 2.4.2 Practice . 58 2.4.3 Cognitive commitment— a variant . 59 vi 2.5 Standards and Common Sense . 61 2.5.1 Certainty . 62 2.5.2 Trust . 63 III Top-Down Arguments . 68 3.1 From underdetermination to empiricism . 69 3.1.1 Constructive empiricism . 70 3.1.2 Cognitive commitment and the Galilean Strategy . 72 3.1.3 Practice: Does acceptance collapse into belief? . 82 3.2 The road from empirical equivalence . 87 3.2.1 Cheap proofs . 89 3.2.2 Characterizing the empirical . 91 3.2.3 Verdict . 96 3.3 The road from auxiliaries . 98 3.3.1 The Duhem in the Duhemian Argument . 102 3.3.2 Turning the tables . 104 3.3.3 Total Science . 105 3.3.4 Verdict on auxiliaries . 109 3.4 The road from semantics . 110 3.5 The road from voiding observation . 113 IV Bottom-up Arguments . 118 4.1 The road from geometry . 119 4.1.1 Absolute velocity . 120 4.1.2 Universal forces . 122 4.1.3 Massive reduplication . 130 4.1.4 Clothesline arguments . 145 4.1.5 Verdict . 148 4.2 The road by induction . 149 4.2.1 The old induction . 150 4.2.2 The new induction . 151 4.3 The road to relativism . 155 4.3.1 Phlogiston . 163 4.3.2 Various æthers . 165 4.3.3 Hormones . 174 4.3.4 Verdict . 181 Bibliography . 183 vii LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Circle Limit IV . 11 1.2 The structure of Circle Limit IV . 12 1.3 Nested scopes by sense of possibility . 20 1.4 Hop and Skip . 29 2.1 The structure of T3 ........................... 43 2.2 The argument from madness . 53 2.3 The argument from practice . 60 3.1 Proving that the Earth is round . 99 3.2 Proving that light does not travel in a straight line . 100 4.1 Infinitely many monkeys . 123 4.2 An expanding rocket . 128 4.3 A shrinking rocket . 129 4.4 Universal forces for monkeys . 130 4.5 S1, small finite space . 132 4.6 S2, mid-size finite space . 132 4.7 Sω, infinite space . 132 4.8 Rings in the cosmic background . 140 4.9 Malament’s clothesline construction . 147 4.10 Scorecard of geometrical examples . 149 4.11 The LH model . 175 4.12 The selectionist model . 178 4.13 The experimental situation . 181 viii Preface It is common to say that underdetermination gives us a reason to rethink science— to curtail its authority in some way. This underdetermination is some- times taken just to be the problem that theories might have empirically equivalent rivals. It is sometimes taken just to be the Duhem-Quine problem that theories re- quire auxiliary hypotheses in order to issue in testable predictions. It is sometimes taken just to be the problem of induction (either Hume’s or Goodman’s). And so one might suspect that ‘underdetermination’ is not one phenomenon at all, but rather a crypto-omnivorous catch-all for phenomena that mitigate the authority of science. The present project lays this worry to rest, I hope, by providing a frame- work within which all these worries can be seen as species of one genus. Within the framework, many familiar worries about underdetermination appear in a new light. Some underdetermination shows nothing interesting about science, and no underdetermination undercuts the authority of science tout court. I began this project with modest expectations, with a fallibilist but non- sceptical conception of science— by which I mean that we might be wrong about any specific claim we make about the world, but that nevertheless scientific knowl- edge is possible. Some of what I say can be taken as motivation for this view; see especially the general epistemic considerations of Ch II. I don’t think we need underdetermination to arrive at this view, however. It suggests itself if we look to the practice and history of science. And so when I say in what follows that under- determination tells us nothing new about science, I mean that it tells us nothing new given that we were already fallibilists. ix One may insist that ‘x knows p’ entails ‘x could not be wrong about p.’ Thus, fallibilism is tantamount to denying that we know anything, and ‘fallibilist but non-sceptical’ is a contradiction. If one did insist on this, then I think under- determination would provide one with great head-aches. Similarly, if one thinks that science provides the unquestionable truth, then underdetermination should give one a sour stomach. And so on. x Acknowledgements The present text is the result of many hours, a great number of them spent in coffee houses in the San Diego area. I have been especially thankful for the Grove (which was offered as an enticing example of the local scene when I visited in 1996), Ken Coffee (where, for some reason, I often end up calculating probabilities), Lestat’s Coffee House (open 24 hours), Muir Woods (just across from the office), Peet’s Coffee and Tea (a convenient mid-point in the walk from my apartment to the department), and Wired (a misleadingly named French caf´e nearby).