Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th April, 2020

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC-NOCC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 41

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th April, 2020

April 2020

Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).

Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

These forecasts are done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day

cl imate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions for the good will demonstrated in the sharing of the data. This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°41 highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the st th climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1 to 10 April, 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It st th th th also makes an assessment of the forecasts developed for the dekad from 1 to 10 April, 2020. This dekad from 11 to 20 April, 2020 will be characterized by the progressive set in of the monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-East direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will settle in the coastal zone (Littoral and South West regions), in the West, North West, South, Centre and East regions. This progression will be marked by the displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) which is currently in the southern part, to the northern part of the country.

II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Tibati in the Adamawa region;

- Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yaounde and Eseka in the Centre region; - Moloundou in the East region; - Makam in the West region; NB 1: During this period, we note: 1) a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures between 34°C and 40°C, for several successive days in the Sudano- sahelian zone (Far North region and North region, notabl; in Dembo, Pitoa, Lagdo, Garoua, Tcholliré et Rey Bouba); 2) We also note a high probability of registering large differences in thermal variations over the Sudano-sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Mora in the Far North region; - Touboro in the North region; - Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Akom II and Ambam in the South region; - Foumbot, Bafang and Bazou in the West region; - Benakuma, Bamenda and Kumbo in the North West region.

II. 2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts in excess of historic values recorded for the same period and in excess of those recorded in the dekad of 1-10 April, 2020 in the following localities: - Bertoua, Abong Mbang, Lomie, Mintom II, Ngoyla, Garoua Boulai, Batouri, Betare-Oya, Bertoua, Belabo, Moloundou, Mbitom, Yokadouma and Mindourou in the East region; - Eseka, Mbalmayo and Monatele in the Centre region; - Kribi, Nyabizan, Campo, Ebolowa and Lolodorf in the South region; - Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - Mbouda, Bazou and Tonga in the West region; - Benankuma, Wum, Fundong and Bali in the North West region; - Mouanko, Dizangue, Yabassi, Douala, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Melong and Mbanga in the Littoral region.

2 NB2: For the other localities over the national territory, the forecasts indicate quantities of precipitations globally around the average recorded during the decade from 1st to 10th April, 2020.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th April, 2020

e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone For precipitations 1) A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; We expect: - higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in the a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone localities of Tiko, Buea and Limbe; around the volume registered in the last - A high probability of recording sporadic and high dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in the localities of Eyumojock, Idenau, intensity rainfall in the North and Far North regions; Mundemba, Bamusso, Kumba, Mutengene and Mamfe in the South West b) In the Guinean high savannah zone region. A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - higher than the volume registered in the dekad from the 1st to 10th April, 2020 - lower than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th in the localities of Mouanko, Dizangue, Yabassi, Douala, Nkongsamba, Manjo, April, 2020 in Tignere, Ngaoundere, Tibati and Banyo; Penja, Ndokoti, Edea, Melong and Mbanga; around the volume registered in the - around the same quantity recorded in the dekad from st th st th last dekad from 1 to 10 April, 2020 in the locality of Loum in the Littoral 1 to 10 April, 2020 at Meiganga in the Adamawa region. region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone NB5: a) This period will also be marked by the setting in of the monsoon A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; winds in the south-west-north-east direction, which brings humidity from - higher than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th the southern part, towards the Centre, South, West and East and the April, 2020 at Eseka, Mbalmayo and Monatele; slightly st th western part of the Littoral, the South West and North West regions and by lower than those recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 the progressive displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) towards the April, 2020 at Bafia, Yaounde, Obala and Ntui in the norhern part of the country. Centre region; b) This dekad corresponds to the extension of the planting season in - approximately equal to the mean recorded in the dekad st th certain localities in the Centre, East, North-West, West, and the Adamawa from 1 to 10 April, 2020 in Yokadouma, Batouri, regions. Bertoua, Garoua Boulai, Betare Oya, Moloundou and Belabo precipitation quantities higher than those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March, 2020 in Ngoyla, Mbitom, Abong Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; - higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 at Campo, Kribi, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, and Ebolowa; around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in Ambam, Sangmelima, Djoum and Akom II in the South region.

NB3: During this period, there is a high probability of recording high intensity rainfall in the Southern part, particularly in the localities of Kribi, Campo, Lolodorf, Ambam, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South Rrgion. d) In the high plateaux zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in the localities of Bali, Fundong and Santa; slightly lower than the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 at Benankuma, Bamenda and Wum in the North West region; Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad compared - around the volume recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th to those registered in the dekad friom the 1st to 10th March, 2020 April, 2020 in the localities of Mbouda, Bazou and Tonga; st Source: ONACC, April 2020 slightly lower than the mean recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10th April, 2020 in Bamendjing, Bafang, Dschang, Bangangte, NB 6: This dekad of 11th to 20th April 2020 corresponds to Foumbot, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. - the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region); NB4: The dekad from 11th to 20th April, 2020 has a - the effective setting in of the rainy season in the High Plateaux zone (West high probability of recording thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds and lightning in many and North-West regions) ; localities in the Centre, South, East, West, North-West, - the effective setting in of the rainy season in the Monomodal Rainfall South-West, Littoral and the southern part of the Forest Zone (Littoral and South-West regions); Adamawa Regions.; - the effective setting in of the short rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall Forest zone (Centre, South and East regions);

NB7: During this dekad, there will be a significant increase in rainfall amounts in the North-West, West and northern part of the South- West region, with a high risk of recording cases of flooding and landslides in the these Regions. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 43°C in the Far North region, 45°C in the North region, 33.4°C in the Adamawa region, 32°C in the Centre, 32°C in the South region, 33°C in the East regions, 27.75°C in West, 27.83 in the North West, 29.01°C in the South West region, 28.8°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording;

- average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum, 2018 in Kousseri; Bogo, Yagoua, Mora, Maroua, Maga, Kaele, and Waza, Mindif and Kumbo, Nwa Bali and Benakuma in the North West region; Mokolo in the Far North region; - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Makam, - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to and around the historical average in Foumbot, Foumban, Tonga, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafoussam, Dschang, 2018 at Dembo, Lagdo, Pitoa, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire and lower than the Mbouda, Bafang, and Bangangte in the West region; historical average in Poli and Touboro in the North region; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to Nyabizan, Campo, Lolodorf, Zoetele, Akom II Sangmelima, Djoum and Kribi and above the historic 2018 in Ngaoundere and Meiganga; above the historican mean at Tibati and around the mean in Ambam in the South region; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mamfe, historical mean in Banyo, Mbakaou and Tignere in the Adamawa region; Nguti, Tiko, Buea, Idenau, Eyumojock, Muyuka, Bamusso, Limbe, Fontem, Mundemba and Kumba in - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to the South West region; 2018 in Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yaounde and Eseka and around the historical average in Obala, - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in, Melong, Monatele,, Akonolinga, Bafia, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock and Mbalmayo in the Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum, Manjo and Edea and above the Centre region; historic mean at Mouanko in the Littoral region. - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to NB8: During this period, we note a very high risk of observing heat waves characterised by 2018 at Yokadouma, Mindourou, Lomie, Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Betare Oya and temperatures above 37°C to 46+°C, for several successive days in the Far North region and the Abong-Mbang and higher than the historical average at Moloundou in the East region; northern part of the North regions.

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the (a) (b) (c) current dekad (a) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (b) forecasts for the period 11 to 20 April 2020 and (c) expected anomalies for the current dekad. (Source: ONACC, April 2020)

st th Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 April, 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2020, there is a high probability of registering:

- mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in - average maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in Kousseri, Kaele, Maroua, Waza, Bogo, Maga and Yagoua, Mindif, Mora,and Mokolo Nyabissan, Kribi, Ambam Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Zoetele; Lolodorf, Sangmelima in the Far North region; and Djoum in the South region; st th - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1 to 10 April, 2020 in - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in

Touboro, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Poli, Dembo, Garoua, Guider and Lagdo in the North Mamfe, Buea, Tiko, Nguti, Mundemba, Fontem, Limbe, Idenau, Kumba, Muyuka, and region; Eyumojock in the South West region; st th - mean maximum temperatures below those recorded from 1 to 10 April, 2020 in st th - average maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1 to 10 April, Tignere and Meiganga; above the mean at Ngaoundere and around those recorded from 2020 in Yabassi, Edea, Mouanko Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, 1st to 10th April, 2020 in Mbakaou, Tibati and Banyo in the Adamawa region; Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in - mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 Bertoua, Batouri, Lomie, Ndelele and Betare Oya; below the mean in Ngoyla, in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Benakuma and Wum,in the North West region; Moloundou and Yokadouma and and above the mean in Betare Oya in the East region; - mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 - average maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in, in Bazou, Foumbot, Bafang, Mbouda, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumban, Bafoussam and Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Bafia, Ngoro, Monatele, Obala, Yaounde, Eseka and Nanga Eboko; below the mean at Yoko in the Centre region; Tonga in the West region.

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures (b)forecast for current dekad compared to (a) the dekad from 1st to 10th (a) April 2020 (c) expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th April, 2020. (b) (c) Source: ONACC, April 2020

Alerts for maximum temperatures

th th During this dekad from 11 to 20 April, 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historic means for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include:

- Tibati in the Adamawa region;

- Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yaounde and Yoko in the Centre region; - Moloundou in the East region; - Makam in the West region;

a) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 26°C in the Far North region, 27.5°C in the North region, 23.3°C in the Adamawa region, 18.8°C in the Centre region, 21.2°C in the South region, 20.3°C in the East region, 18.2°C in the West, 18.2 in the North West regions; 21.8°C in the South West region, 21°C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability of registering: - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mora, Waza, Bogo and Mokolo; around the historical average for the same period in Kaele, Obala, Yaounde, Monatele, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Eseka, Yoko and Bafia in the Centre Mindif, Maroua, Kousseri, Yagoua and Maga in the Far North region; Region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Tcholliré and Rey Bouba; around the historical average in Mandingrin, Touboro Tonga, Bangangte, Bafoussam Bazou, Bafang, Foumban, Bamendjing, and Dschang, in the Dembo, Garoua Lagdo and Pitoa in the North region; West Region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Tibati, Tignere, Mbakaou and Meiganga; and around the historical average in Bali, Fundong, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Benakuma and Wum in the North-West Region; Banyo in the Adamawa region; - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Idenau Tiko, Kumba, Buea, Limbe Mundemba, Bamusso and Muyuka; around the historical Betare Oya, Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Bertoua, Yokadouma, Batouri, Moloundo and Mindourou; and below the historic mean in Ngoyla in the East Region; mean in Eyumodock and Mamfe in the South West region. - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in - -minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbanga, Kribi, Nyabizan, Campo, Sangmelima, Zoetele,, Lolodorf, Akom II, Ebolowa and Djoum in Yabassi, Loum, Douala, Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, Manjo, Melong, Nkongsamba, and Penja in the South region; the Littoral region.

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures (a) for the current dekad compared to (a) (b) (c) (b) historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period and (c )expected anomalies for the period from 11th o 20th April, 2020.

Source: ONACC, April 2020

Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2020 and the average minimum temperatures th th expected for the dekad from 11 to 20 April 2020, there is a high probability of registering:

- average minimum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Mora, - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Mouanko, Mokolo, Bogo, Maroua, Waza, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua and Kousseri in the Far North Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and Edea in the region ; Littoral region; - average minimum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in - average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Kribi, Mandingrin, Rey Bouba, Lagdo, Garoua, Dembo and Pitoa and Touboro in the North region; Akom II, Campo, Nyabisan, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South st th region; - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from February 1 to 10 April, 2020 in Tignere and Meiganga; around those registered in Ngaoundere, Banyo, Mbakaou and - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Tonga, Tibati, in the Adamawa region; Bazou, Bangangte, Foumban, Bafang, Dschang and Bamending in the West region; - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Yoko - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Dikome and Yaounde; around the mean in Eseka, Monatele, Mbalmayo, Obala, Akonolinga, and Ngoro Balue, Nguti, Mundemba, Idenau,Tiko, Kumba, Bamusso,t Muyuka, Eyumejock and Mamfe in in the Centre region; the South-West Region; - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in - mean minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th April 2020 in Nwa, Batouri, Belabo, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Mindourou, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Lomie and Batibo, Bamenda, Bali, Fundong, Kumbo, Benakuma, Widikum, Santa and Wum in the North around the average in Betare Oya, Bertoua,Garoua Boulai, Batouri, in the East region; West Region.

(c) (a) (b) Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures (b) forecast for the dekad from 11th to 20th April 2020 Compared to (a) those registered for the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2020 and (c) expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th April, 2020.

Source : ONACC, April 2020

Alerts for minimum temperatures

th th During this dekad from 11 to 20 April 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to their historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. These localities include; - Mora in the Far North region;

- Touboro in the North region; - Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Ambam and Akom II in the South region;

- Foumbot, Bafang and Bazou in the West region;

- Benakuma, Bamenda and Kumbo in the North West region;

IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors c) In the tourism sector: a) In the agricultural sector: - high risk of recording many cases of wildlife migration, due to dry season which A high risk of recording cases of: causes water shortages in tourist sites in the Far North, North and the northern part of - water stress, for market gardening in the Far North, North and northern part of the Adamawa regions. the Adamawa regions, following the accentuation of the drought; d) In the water and energy sector: - increased attacks on cereal crops by insect pests in the Far North and North - risk of drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in the water regions; groundwater table in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa - destruction of plantations (banana plantations, cocoa plantations, fruit trees, etc.) in regions. the Centre, East, South, North-West, South-West, West and Littoral regions, - high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water catchment and following heavy rains accompanied by violent winds; treatment sites in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa region - flooding of off-season crop in lowlands of the Centre, East, South, North-West, In the Public Works sector: South, North-West, South-West, West and Littoral regions, following heavy rains; -high risk of recording cases of: degradation of road works in the Centre, East, South,

Northwest, Southwest, West and Littoral Regions, due heavy rains accompanied by NB : This dekad corresponds to an extension of the planting season in certain violent winds; localities in the Centre, East, Adamawa, West, and North West regions. -destruction of bridges in some communities in the Northwest, West and Northern parts of Southwest Regions due to heavy rains accompanied by violent winds. b) In the health sector: e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: A risk of recording cases of: - risk of the occurrence of floods, land and mud slides, due to a large increase in - Diarrhoea , of hydric origin (Yeast infections, amoebiasis, dysentery, cholera, etc) precipitation quantities in the North West, West, and the northern part of the South West following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water in the five Agro-ecological region; zones especially in the large conglomerates. ; - high risk of recording flood cases in the coastal areas, in the localities of Limbe, Tiko - meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is affecting some and Buea in the South West region and Douala, Yabassi and Mouanko in the Littoral localities in the Far North and North regions, coupled with dust in the air; region; - Conjunctivitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty winds in various - risk of recording many cases of: localities in the Far North and North regions; - bush fires in various localities in the Far North and North regions; - Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in most localities of - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their migration out of reserves in the country during this period, due to humidity and cold in the southern part of the search of water and food in the Far North and North regions; country coupled with high temperatures in the Far North and North regions during - conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the Far North and North this dekad; regions; - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people living with f) In the livestock sector: AIDS/HIV or suffering from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring medication - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some localities in the acting on thermoregulation in most parts of the country; East, Centre, South, North West and and South West regions; - Psychological stress due to very high temperatures in the Far North, North, and the - scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North and North regions; big cities. - migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and grazing land in the

Far North and North regions; - increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water points, plains and lowlands in the Far North and North regions. 10 st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 1 to 10 April, 2020

Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Soudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 25 27,5 23,3 20,3 18,8 21,2 18,2 18,2 22 21,2

Trend forecasts

Success rates of Forecasts (%) 100 100 86,3 94 88 82 100 100 94,2 100

Maximum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 40 40 37 30,33 29,81 30,11 27,27 27,83 28,83 29

Trend forecasts

Success rates of Forecasts (%) 86 80,77 83,2 78 81 81,7 82,8 86 80 80

Precipitations

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 0-23 0-27 47-69 85-132 85-132 94-136 100-160 100-160 105-163 111-161

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Success rates of Forecasts (%) 71 69 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - continue sowing in the greater south of Cameroon, particularly the South, Centre, West, Littoral, North-West, South-West and the southern part of the East region.

b) In the health sector - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); - sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol during this period in the Far North and Northern regions; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gears in localities experiencing cold nights during this period; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; - Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the Far North, North and Adamaoua regions; - keep livestock away from the fields and surround the fields with barbed wire, especially in the greater south of the country where planting is on-going; - practice sedentary animal husbandry; - raise awareness on the dangers of bush fires and their impacts on the environment and biodiversity in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions.

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm