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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th April, 2020

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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 11Th to 20Th April, 2020 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 41 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th April, 2020 April 2020 © ONACC April 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction These forecasts are done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day cl imate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions for the good will demonstrated in the sharing of the data. This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°41 highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the st th climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1 to 10 April, 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It st th th th also makes an assessment of the forecasts developed for the dekad from 1 to 10 April, 2020. This dekad from 11 to 20 April, 2020 will be characterized by the progressive set in of the monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-East direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will settle in the coastal zone (Littoral and South West regions), in the West, North West, South, Centre and East regions. This progression will be marked by the displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) which is currently in the southern part, to the northern part of the country. II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yaounde and Eseka in the Centre region; - Moloundou in the East region; - Makam in the West region; NB 1: During this period, we note: 1) a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures between 34°C and 40°C, for several successive days in the Sudano- sahelian zone (Far North region and North region, notabl; in Dembo, Pitoa, Lagdo, Garoua, Tcholliré et Rey Bouba); 2) We also note a high probability of registering large differences in thermal variations over the Sudano-sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Mora in the Far North region; - Touboro in the North region; - Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai in the East region; - Akom II and Ambam in the South region; - Foumbot, Bafang and Bazou in the West region; - Benakuma, Bamenda and Kumbo in the North West region. II. 2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts in excess of historic values recorded for the same period and in excess of those recorded in the dekad of 1-10 April, 2020 in the following localities: - Bertoua, Abong Mbang, Lomie, Mintom II, Ngoyla, Garoua Boulai, Batouri, Betare-Oya, Bertoua, Belabo, Moloundou, Mbitom, Yokadouma and Mindourou in the East region; - Eseka, Mbalmayo and Monatele in the Centre region; - Kribi, Nyabizan, Campo, Ebolowa and Lolodorf in the South region; - Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - Mbouda, Bazou and Tonga in the West region; - Benankuma, Wum, Fundong and Bali in the North West region; - Mouanko, Dizangue, Yabassi, Douala, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Melong and Mbanga in the Littoral region. 2 NB2: For the other localities over the national territory, the forecasts indicate quantities of precipitations globally around the average recorded during the decade from 1st to 10th April, 2020. III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th April, 2020 e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone For precipitations 1) A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; We expect: - higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in the a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone localities of Tiko, Buea and Limbe; around the volume registered in the last - A high probability of recording sporadic and high dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in the localities of Eyumojock, Idenau, intensity rainfall in the North and Far North regions; Mundemba, Bamusso, Kumba, Mutengene and Mamfe in the South West b) In the Guinean high savannah zone region. A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - higher than the volume registered in the dekad from the 1st to 10th April, 2020 - lower than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th in the localities of Mouanko, Dizangue, Yabassi, Douala, Nkongsamba, Manjo, April, 2020 in Tignere, Ngaoundere, Tibati and Banyo; Penja, Ndokoti, Edea, Melong and Mbanga; around the volume registered in the - around the same quantity recorded in the dekad from st th st th last dekad from 1 to 10 April, 2020 in the locality of Loum in the Littoral 1 to 10 April, 2020 at Meiganga in the Adamawa region. region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone NB5: a) This period will also be marked by the setting in of the monsoon A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; winds in the south-west-north-east direction, which brings humidity from - higher than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th the southern part, towards the Centre, South, West and East and the April, 2020 at Eseka, Mbalmayo and Monatele; slightly st th western part of the Littoral, the South West and North West regions and by lower than those recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 the progressive displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) towards the April, 2020 at Bafia, Yaounde, Obala and Ntui in the norhern part of the country. Centre region; b) This dekad corresponds to the extension of the planting season in - approximately equal to the mean recorded in the dekad st th certain localities in the Centre, East, North-West, West, and the Adamawa from 1 to 10 April, 2020 in Yokadouma, Batouri, regions. Bertoua, Garoua Boulai, Betare Oya, Moloundou and Belabo precipitation quantities higher than those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March, 2020 in Ngoyla, Mbitom, Abong Mbang and Mindourou in the East region; - higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 at Campo, Kribi, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, and Ebolowa; around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in Ambam, Sangmelima, Djoum and Akom II in the South region. NB3: During this period, there is a high probability of recording high intensity rainfall in the Southern part, particularly in the localities of Kribi, Campo, Lolodorf, Ambam, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South Rrgion. d) In the high plateaux zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in the localities of Bali, Fundong and Santa; slightly lower than the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 at Benankuma, Bamenda and Wum in the North West region; Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad compared - around the volume recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th to those registered in the dekad friom the 1st to 10th March, 2020 April, 2020 in the localities of Mbouda, Bazou and Tonga; Source: ONACC, April 2020 slightly lower than the mean recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th April, 2020 in Bamendjing, Bafang, Dschang, Bangangte, NB 6: This dekad of 11th to 20th April 2020 corresponds to Foumbot, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. - the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region); NB4: The dekad from 11th to 20th April, 2020
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