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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1St to 10Th April 2021

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1St to 10Th April 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 76

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th April 2021

st 1 April 2021

© NOCC April 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC.

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°76 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th April 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021. This dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Guinea High Savannah zone. At the same time, the Bimodal rainfall forest zone, the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone and the Highlands zone will be under the influence of the monsoon.

II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Yaounde, Eseka, , , , , , Monatele, , , and Yoko in the ; - Ngoyla and Belabo in the ; - Munkep and Nwa in the North ; - , Tonga and Makam in the West Region; - Loum, Melong, Mbanga, , , and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from the 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in various localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa and Centre regions.

II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, , , , Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far ; - , , Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, , , and Tchollire in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, and Banyo in the ; - Garoua-Boulai and Betare Oya in the East Region. NB2: This dekad from the 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the Far North Region (Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Maroua, Waza, Mora and Mokolo), North (Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo and Ngaoundere) and East (Garoua-Boulai and Betare Oya) regions, due to a significant decrease in minimum temperatures.

II.1.3. Thermal Differences This dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by significant daily temperature differences (ranging between 20 and 30°C) in Dembo in the North region.

II.2. For Precipitation Despite the effective start of the short rainy season in the second dekad of March in the bimodal rainfall forest zone and the rainy season in the highlands zone and the mono-modal rainfall forest zone, the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the above- mentioned zones compared to the average rainfall recorded in the dekads from 11th to 20th March and 21st to 30th March 2021 The rest of the territory, notably the northern part of the Centre and East Regions, the Adamawa, North and Far North Regions will be marked by the influence of the Harmattan

NB3: This dekad, from 1st to 10th April 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); with, however, a high probability of recording rainfall disruptions (number of successive days without rain); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). with, however, a high probability of recording rainfall disruptions (number of successive days without rain); - - to the extension of the dry season in the Guinean High Savannah Zone

NB4: It is strongly recommended that farmers in the Guinean High Savannah zone wait for the effective start of the rainy season before commencing the planting phase.

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III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th April 2021

1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions), marked by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high evapotranspiration and great aridity of the atmosphere due to the persistence of the Harmattan during this period. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone an extension of the dry season in the Guinean High Savannah Zone (Adamawa Region), marked by a scarcity of rainfall, (b) due to the persistence of the Harmattan (a) during this period. c) In the Bimodal rainfall forest zone - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, , Akom II, , Campo, , and in the - below average rainfall amounts recorded from the 21st to the 30th of March 2021 in Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that , Garoua-Boulai, , recorded during the period March 21-30, 2021 (a) Lomie, , Betare-Oya, , Source: NOCC, April 2021 Abong-Mbang, Moloundou, Ngoyla and Bélabo in the East Region. d) In the High plateaux zone - below average rainfall amounts recorded st th NB 5: during the dekad from 21 to 30 March 2021 in , , , Despite the general decrease in rainfall amounts over the national st th , Bangangte, , Massagam, territory, for the dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021, we expect: , Foumban, Tonga and Makam in - a continuation of the short rainy season in the bimodal rainfall the West Region; forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions); - rainfall amounts below those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma, Ndop, Furu and North-West Regions) and the monomodal rainfall forest zone Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, (Littoral and South-West Regions); Fundong, Munkep and Nwa in the North - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far West Region. North and North Regions); e) In the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone - an extension of the dry season from the Guinean High Savannah rainfall amounts below those recorded zone (Adamawa region). during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Mundemba, Limbe, , Idenau, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Tiko, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, Ekok, , Mamfe and Eyumojock in the South-West Region ; - rainfall amounts below those recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in , , , , , Bare-Bakem, Edéa, Loum Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region 3

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Bazou, Bangangté, Foumbot, Massagam and Koutaba; above the mean in Foumban, Tonga and during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Makam in the West Region; 40.33°C in the Far North Region; 41°C in the North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Limbe, Buea, Idenau, 35.8°C in the Adamawa Region; 30°C in the Centre Region; 30.2°C in the South Region; 32.2°C in the East Region; 27.6°C in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Tiko, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, Ekok, Kumba, Mamfe and Eyumojock in the South West Region; the West Region; 28.5°C in the North-West Region; 28.83°C in the South-West Region and 28.5°C in the Littoral region, the - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, following temperatures are expected for the dekad from 1 to 10 Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Bare-Bakem and Edea; and above the mean in Loum, Melong, April 2021: Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo, Kousseri, Mora, Makari, Yagoua, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Bogo, Waza and Mindif in the Far North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Pitoa, Poli, Touboro, Guider and Dembo in the North Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Banyo, , Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Tignere and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Eseka and Bafia; above the historical mean in Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Obala Mbandjock, Nanga (a) (b) Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou; above the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Yokadouma and Abong-Mbang; below the historical mean in Moloundou and above the historical mean in Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Akom II, Kribi, Campo, Djoum, Ebolowa and Ambam in the South Region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma, Ndop, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Ndu and Fundong; above the mean in Munkep Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those and Nwa, in the North West Region registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, April 2021)

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Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021, for the dekad from 1st Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, , Benakuma, Wum and Nwa in the North to 10th April 2021, there is a high probability of registering maximum West Region temperatures: - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in st th - above the average recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 Foumbot, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, , Foumban, , March 2021 in Mora and Maroua; around the average in Mokolo, Bangangte, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga and Makam in the West Region. Bogo, Waza, Kousseri, Mindif, Maga, Mokolo, Bogo, Yagoua

and Kaele in the Far North Region; - above the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Poli; around the average in Rey-Bouba, Dembo, Lagdo, Tchollire and Garoua, Touboro and Pitoa in the North Region - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Tignere, Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa Region - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Belabo and Ngoyla; around the average in Moloundou, Yokadouma, Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Lomie and Abong-Mbang in the (a) (b) East Region - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in , Ngoro, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, , Nkoteng, Bafia, Yaounde, Eseka and Mbalmayo; above average in Obala; below average in Yoko in the Centre Region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Ebolowa, Kribi, Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Campo, Lolodorf and Akom II; below average in Ambam in the South Region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Idenau, Fontem, Kumba, Nguti, Mundemba,

Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Tiko, Limbe and Buea in the South Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to West Region the dekad from 21st to 30thMarch 2021 (a) - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Source: NOCC, April 2021 , , Ndom, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Bare- 5 Bakem, , Manjo, Mbanga, Douala, , Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea and Loum in the Littoral Region;

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Obala Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region;

- Ngoyla and Belabo, in the East Region;

- Munkep and Nwa, in the North West Region; - Foumban, Tonga and Makam; in the West Region; - Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. -

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b) For Minimum Temperatures -above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Nwa, Esu and Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures Munkep; around the historical mean in Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop, Wum and recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 26.2°C in the Far North Benakuma in the North West Region; Region; 27.4°C in the North Region; 23.22°C in the - above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Bamusso Tiko, Adamawa Region; 19°C in the Centre Region; 21°C in the Limbe, Idenau and Buea; around the historical mean in Nguti, Mamfe, Kumba, Mundemba, South Region; 20.2°C in the East Region; 17.5°C in the West Fontem, Muyuka and Eyumojock in the South West Region; Region; 17°C in the North-West Region; 21.6°C in the South- - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Douala, West Region and 20.5°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad Mouanko, Edea and Dizangue; and around the historical mean in Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, from 1st to 10th April 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: Nkongsamba, Yabassi Melong and Loum in the Littoral Region.

- below the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Maroua, Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; - below the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire, in the North Region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati, Mbakaou and Yimbere; below the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga and Banyo in the Adamawa Region; (a) - above the historical mean recorded during the same period (b) from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, , Eseka, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo and Yaounde in the Centre Region; - above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla and Batouri; around average in Yokadouma; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai and Betare Oya in the East Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Ambam, Nyabizan and Akom II; above the historical mean in Campo, Kribi, Zoetele, Djoum, Lolodorf and Ebolowa in the South Region; - around the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Foumbot, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafang, Bangangte and Bazou; above the historical Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to mean in Foumban, Makam and Tonga in the West Region; historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period. Source: NOCC, April 2021

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Based on the difference between the average minimum - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Santa, Ndop, Nwa, temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March Bamenda, Fundong, Kumbo, Benakuma and Wum in the North West Region; 2021, there is a high probability during the dekad from 1st to - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Bamusso, Mundemba, 10th April 2021 of registering minimum temperatures: Kumba, Mamfe, Buea, Tiko, Nguti, Muyuka, Idenau and Eyumojock, in the South West st th - above the average recorded from 21 to 30 March 2021 in Region. Mindif and Yagoua; around the average in Makari, Maroua, Bogo, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Lagdo and Guider; above average in Garoua, Pitoa, Dembo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro in the North Region - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere and Banyo in the Adamawa Region; - above the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Obala, Yoko, Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Bafia, Akonolinga, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Nanga Eboko and Mbandjock in the Centre Region; (a) (b) - around the average recorded for the period from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Betare Oya and Yokadouma; below average in Garoua-Boulai; above average in Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua and Lomie in the East Region; - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Campo, Kribi, Akom II and Nyabizan; above average in Zoetele, Ebolowa, Djoum, Sangmelima, Lolodorf and Ambam in the South Region; - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Foumbot, Mbouda and Tonga in the West Region; Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those st th recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 (a). - above the average recorded from 21 to 30 March 2021 in Edea; around the average in Mouanko, Dizangue, Douala, Source: NOCC, April 2021

Loum, Penja, Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo and Yabassi in the Littoral Region. 8

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

- Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Maroua, Waza, Mora and Mokolo, in the Far North Region; - Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire, in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua-Boulai and Betare Oya, in the East Region.

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IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: • cases of loss of animals due to lightning discharge in the Centre, West, South A high risk of recording cases of: West and North West regions. • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effect of dry winds and high • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold prevailing in certain localities in the Far temperatures, resulting in the destruction of fields in the Far North, North and the northern North and North regions and the northern part of Adamawa region; part of the Adamawa regions; • a scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, the North and the • water stress, for vegetable and food crops in the Far North, North and the northern part of northern part of Adamawa region. the Adamawa regions following the accentuation of the dryness; • increased attacks on crops by insect pests in the Far North, North and the northern d) In the water and energy sector: part of Adamawa regions. A high risk of recording:

• a continuous drying up of water supply points, due to the dry season and the NB 7: This period is suitable for the continuation of sowing in the Bimodal Rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions) and the continuous decrease in the level of the water table in the Far North and North regions; Mono -modal rainfall forest zone (South West and Littoral regions). • reduction in the volume of water in dams, water collection and treatment points in the Far North and North regions. b) In the health sector: A risk of recording cases of: e) In the environment and biodiversity sector:  meningococcal meningitis, due to the severe dry season in the Far North, North and the A high risk of recording numerous cases of: northern part of the Adamawa regions, coupled with the increased dust in the air; - bush fires in many localities in the Far North, North and Adamawa Regions;  water -borne diarrheal diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), following the scarcity and - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in / or poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; search of water and food, in the Far North, North and Adamawa Regions;  respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), following the - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in dust increasingly present in the air and the cold which prevails during this period, especially at search of water and food, in the Far North, North and Adamawa Regions. night in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; A high risk of observing morning fog with a consequent high risk of traffic accidents in  conjunctivitis due to the combined effect of heat, wind and dust in the air in the Far North, many localities in the Centre, South and East Regions (forest zone with bimodal rainfall), North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; West and north-west (Highlands zone) and South-West (forest zone with mono-modal  general pathologies, due to the heat of the day and the cold of the night in people suffering rainfall).

from hypertension, obesity, women in menopause, people with diabetics, in the Far North, North and the northern part of Adamawa regions; f) In the defence and security sector:  multiplication of malaria vector mosquitoes, in the Centre, South, East, West, North-West, A risk of recording cases of: South West and Littoral regions, following the proliferation of puddles of water. - conflicts between rearers and farmers in their search for water sources and food in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions. c) For the livestock sector - conflicts between populations in search of water resources and food in the Far A high risk of recording cases of: North, North and Adamawa regions, due to the continuous drying up of water • a massive migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and pasture in the regions of the Far North, North and the northern parts of the Adamawa region; points; - conflicts between populations in search of natural resources, as a result of the • an increase in pastoralist-farmer conflicts and conflicts between pastoralists around water points, plains and lowlands in the regions of the Far North, the North, and the northern part of the continuous drying up of water points due to the severity of the dry season in the Far Adamawa region; North, North and Adamawa regions.

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st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 21 to 30 March 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24.12 24.15 22.6 21.85 23 21.4 17.7 17 21.84 22

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 84.5 83.1 85 82.9 80.1 80 83 81 81.51 85.6 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 39.42 36.42 34.94 32.1 32.6 30.12 29.2 28.9 29.6 30.2 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 80 83 81 81.51 83 81 81.51 80.4 79.2 83.1 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction ; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: In the health sector, continue to Plan agricultural activities, especially in the sowing season by referring to the agricultural calendar developed by ONACC for the 2021 agricultural campaign.

In the health sector, continue to . raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); . avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; . dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; . apply appropriate lubricants to nostrils or put on facemasks to reduce entry of dust particles; . encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; . strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]

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