REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 76 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th April 2021 st 1 April 2021 © NOCC April 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°76 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th April 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th March st th 2021. This dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Guinea High Savannah zone. At the same time, the Bimodal rainfall forest zone, the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone and the Highlands zone will be under the influence of the monsoon. II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region; - Ngoyla and Belabo in the East Region; - Munkep and Nwa in the North West Region; - Foumban, Tonga and Makam in the West Region; - Loum, Melong, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from the 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in various localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa and Centre regions. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Maroua, Waza, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; - Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North Region; - Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga and Banyo in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua-Boulai and Betare Oya in the East Region. NB2: This dekad from the 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the Far North Region (Makari, Kousseri, Kaele, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Maroua, Waza, Mora and Mokolo), North (Pitoa, Garoua, Dembo, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo and Ngaoundere) and East (Garoua-Boulai and Betare Oya) regions, due to a significant decrease in minimum temperatures. II.1.3. Thermal Differences This dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by significant daily temperature differences (ranging between 20 and 30°C) in Dembo in the North region. II.2. For Precipitation Despite the effective start of the short rainy season in the second dekad of March in the bimodal rainfall forest zone and the rainy season in the highlands zone and the mono-modal rainfall forest zone, the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the above- mentioned zones compared to the average rainfall recorded in the dekads from 11th to 20th March and 21st to 30th March 2021 The rest of the territory, notably the northern part of the Centre and East Regions, the Adamawa, North and Far North Regions will be marked by the influence of the Harmattan NB3: This dekad, from 1st to 10th April 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); with, however, a high probability of recording rainfall disruptions (number of successive days without rain); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). with, however, a high probability of recording rainfall disruptions (number of successive days without rain); - - to the extension of the dry season in the Guinean High Savannah Zone NB4: It is strongly recommended that farmers in the Guinean High Savannah zone wait for the effective start of the rainy season before commencing the planting phase. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th April 2021 1) For precipitation For the dekad from 1st to 10th April 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions), marked by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high evapotranspiration and great aridity of the atmosphere due to the persistence of the Harmattan during this period. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone an extension of the dry season in the Guinean High Savannah Zone (Adamawa Region), marked by a scarcity of rainfall, (b) due to the persistence of the Harmattan (a) during this period. c) In the Bimodal rainfall forest zone - below average rainfall amounts recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Lolodorf, Akom II, Kribi, Campo, Djoum, Ebolowa and Ambam in the South Region - below average rainfall amounts recorded from the 21st to the 30th of March 2021 in Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Batouri, recorded during the period March 21-30, 2021 (a) Lomie, Bertoua, Betare -Oya, Yokadouma, Source: NOCC, April 2021 Abong-Mbang, Moloundou, Ngoyla and Bélabo in the East Region. d) In the High plateaux zone - below average rainfall amounts recorded st th NB 5: during the dekad from 21 to 30 March 2021 in Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Despite the general decrease in rainfall amounts over the national st th Bazou, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, territory, for the dekad from 1 to 10 April 2021, we expect: Koutaba, Foumban, Tonga and Makam in - a continuation of the short rainy season in the bimodal rainfall the West Region; forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions); - rainfall amounts below those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma, Ndop, Furu and North-West Regions) and the monomodal rainfall forest zone Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, (Littoral and South-West Regions); Fundong, Munkep and Nwa in the North - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far West Region. North and North Regions); e) In the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone - an extension of the dry season from the Guinean High Savannah rainfall amounts below those recorded zone (Adamawa region). during the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2021 in Mundemba, Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Tiko, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Fontem, Ekok, Kumba, Mamfe and Eyumojock in the South-West Region ; - rainfall amounts below those recorded during the