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DEBT STATISTICS – MAY 2019 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Contents

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DEBT STATISTICS – MAY 2019 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Contents Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration DEBT STATISTICS – MAY 2019 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Contents Page 3 Debt Stock of the Republic of Serbia on May 31, 2019, Analysis of Debt Stock of the Republic of Serbia from the end of year 2000 till Page 4 May 31 2019 Page 5 Public Debt to GDP ratio Page 6 Currency Structure Page 7 Interest Rate Structure Page 8 Local Government Debt Structure Page 9 Local Government Debt – FX and Interest Rate Structure Page 10 Local Government Debt – Creditors Structure Page 11 Local Government Debt – Risk Indicators 2 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Debt stock of the Republic of Serbia PUBLIC DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA DEBT STOCK OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA ON MAY 31, 2019 In Thousands In Million A. Direct Liabilities EUR USD RSD I - Total Domestic Debt (direct liabilities) 9,553,252 10,631,811 1,126,872 II - Total External Debt (direct liabilities) 12,611,402 14,035,225 1,487,602 IBRD 2,281,770 2,539,381 269,151 IDA 244,869 272,514 28,884 EIB 1,194,176 1,328,998 140,861 EBRD 76,039 84,623 8,969 CEB 113,386 126,187 13,375 Foreign Government loans 2,922,206 3,252,122 344,694 Export - Import Bank of China 988,454 1,100,050 116,595 Eurobonds 3,144,938 3,500,000 370,967 KfW Development Bank 73,635 81,949 8,686 Paris and London Club of Creditors 1,055,333 1,174,480 124,484 European Union 36,034 40,102 4,250 IMF 480,562 534,818 56,686 Commercial Bank loans 0 0 0 Total Direct Liabilities (I + II) 22,164,654 24,667,036 2,614,474 B. Contingent Liabilities EUR USD RSD III - Total Domestic Debt (contingent liabilities) 204,227 227,284 24,090 IV - Total External Debt (contingent liabilities) 1,376,093 1,531,453 162,320 EBRD 448,537 499,177 52,908 EIB 674,246 750,368 79,532 KfW 112,441 125,135 13,263 European Union 0 0 0 EUROFIMA 38,417 42,754 4,532 IDA 9,856 10,969 1,163 Japan International Cooperation Agency - JICA 46,790 52,072 5,519 Foreign Government loans 20,124 22,396 2,374 Commercial Bank loans 25,682 28,582 3,029 Total Contingent Liabilities (III + IV) 1,580,320 1,758,737 186,410 C. Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt EUR USD RSD V - Total Domestic Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt 251,639 280,049 28,283 VI - Total External Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt 94,108 104,733 11,101 Total Non-Guaranteed Debt (V + VI) 345,747 384,782 39,384 Central Government Debt (A + B) 23,744,974 26,425,773 2,800,884 General Government Debt (A + B + C) 24,090,721 26,810,554 2,840,267 3 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Analysis of debt stock of the Republic of Serbia: Central Government Millions EUR PUBLIC DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA FROM THE END OF YEAR 2000 TILL MAY 2019 А. DIRECT LIABILITIES 31/12/00 31/12/01 31/12/02 31/12/03 31/12/04 31/12/05 31/12/06 31/12/07 31/12/08 31/12/09 31/12/10 31/12/11 31/12/12 31/12/13 31/12/14 31/12/15 31/12/16 31/12/17 31/12/18 31/05/19 Domestic Debt 4,108 3,871 4,152 4,240 4,064 4,255 3,837 3,413 3,162 4,050 4,572 5,441 6,496 7,055 8,225 9,051 8,768 9,089 9,414 9,553 External Debt 10,059 9,561 7,230 6,564 5,267 5,364 4,746 4,616 4,691 4,406 5,873 7,239 8,621 10,245 11,992 13,370 13,908 12,370 12,077 12,611 Total Direct Liabilities 14,167 13,432 11,382 10,803 9,331 9,620 8,583 8,029 7,853 8,457 10,444 12,679 15,117 17,299 20,217 22,421 22,676 21,459 21,491 22,165 B. CONTINGENT LIABILITIES Domestic Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135 340 536 723 857 687 608 382 209 155 204 External Debt 0 2 147 220 344 663 769 846 929 1,257 1,372 1,574 1,878 1,985 1,858 1,790 1,763 1,554 1,369 1,376 Total Contingent Liabilities 0 2 147 220 344 663 769 846 929 1,392 1,712 2,110 2,600 2,842 2,545 2,397 2,144 1,763 1,524 1,580 Total Central Government Debt 14,167 13,434 11,529 11,023 9,676 10,283 9,352 8,875 8,781 9,849 12,157 14,789 17,717 20,141 22,762 24,819 24,820 23,222 23,015 23,745 4 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Public Debt to GDP ratio: Central Government Central Government 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 May 2019 Debt/GDP (%) 47.6 33.9 27.9 26.8 30.9 39.5 42.8 52.9 56.0 66.2 70.0 67.8 57.9 53.8 51.8 75 70.0 66.2 67.8 56.0 57.9 52.9 53.8 51.8 47.6 50 42.8 39.5 33.9 30.9 27.9 26.8 In percentageIn 25 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 May 2019 * In accordance with the revised GDP data for the period 2005-2017. published by RZS 5 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Currency structure Central Government Level General Government Level Share of outstanding Share of outstanding Currency Amount in RSD Currency Amount in RSD debt % debt % RSD 724,792,417,726 26.13% RSD 734,154,653,583 26.13% EUR 1,105,447,869,534 39.76% EUR 1,135,130,440,448 39.76% USD 743,118,084,868 26.66% USD 743,416,907,241 26.66% CHF 12,201,693,534 0.43% CHF 12,241,579,673 0.43% SDR 86,732,183,424 3.15% SDR 86,732,183,424 3.15% Other * 128,591,259,965 3.86% Other * 128,591,259,965 3.86% Total 2,800,883,509,052 100% Total 2,840,267,024,334 100% * GBP, JPY, DKK, SEK, NOK EUR EUR 39.8% 39.8% RSD RSD 26.1% 26.1% USD USD 26.7% 26.7% Other * Other * 3.9% SDR CHF 3.9% SDR CHF 3.2% 0.4% 3.2% 0.4% 6 Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Interest rate structure: Interest Rate Structure on the 31 of Central Government May 2019 Total Central Government Debt 2,800,883,509,052 19% Fixed Interest Rates 2,272,637,274,828 Variable Interest Rates 528,246,234,224 EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 418,329,654,039 LIBOR USD 24,696,673,636 LIBOR CHF 7,670,160,034 LIBOR GBP 458,397,930 LIBOR JPY 690,955,673 STIBOR 265,093,935 NIBOR 461,328,442 CIBOR 597,611,385 81% BELIBOR Key Policy Rate 2,612,745,000 SDR Interest Rate 56,685,653,227 Аustrian market interest rate and other KFW rates* 15,777,960,924 Fixed Interest Rates Variable Interest Rates Total Central Government Debt 100.00% Variable Interest Rate Structure Fixed Interest Rates 81.14% on the 31 of May 2019 Variable Interest Rates 18.86% EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 14.94% LIBOR USD 0.88% LIBOR CHF 0.27% 15% LIBOR GBP 0.02% LIBOR JPY 0.02% 1% STIBOR 0.01% NIBOR 0.02% 5% CIBOR 0.02% BELIBOR Key Policy Rate 0.09% SDR Interest Rate 2.02% Аustrian market interest rate and other KFW rates* 0.56% EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 79.19% LIBOR USD 4.68% LIBOR CHF 1.45% 79% Other variable interest rates 14.68% Total 100.00% •other interest rates that forms depending on interest rates of Securities (T-bills) of most developed countries, EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR LIBOR USD LIBOR CHF Other variable interest rates 7 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt Stock and Structure Local Government Debt trends Guaranteed Vs Non-Guaranteed Debt 160 60 54.4 52.7 52.3 131.1 132.6 134.5 140 124.4 50 45.4 120 99.7 99.1 39.0 39.1 123.7 127.6 94.3 36.8 100 118.1 40 In RSD bn RSD In 107.8 29.5 29.6 30.4 94.3 bn RSD In 80 26.9 28.0 93.3 89.6 30 26.3 25.6 81.2 82.2 81.9 51.9 60 41.9 75.7 67.0 64.6 35.9 63.1 20 40 26.6 26.6 29.7 20 26.3 10 0 0 Contracted Amount Withdrawed Amount Repaid Amount Debt Stock Guaranteed Debt Non-Guaranteed Debt Domestic Vs, External Debt In Percentage of GDP 50 45.5 2.50% 42.6 43.7 2.12% 45 41.6 40.7 2.10% 39.6 39.6 1.90% 40 37.9 2.00% 36.4 36.4 1.68% 35 32.1 28.3 1.40% 1.41% 30 1.50% 1.36% 26.3 25.2 1.21% 1.24% 1.20% In RSD bn RSD In 25 1.00% 1.00% 0.82% 20 0.72% 0.72% 15 10 0.50% 5 0 0.00% Total Local Government Debt O/W Non-Guaranteed Debt Total Domestic Debt Total Foreign Debt 8 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt – FX and Interest Rate Structure Currency compositon – in RSD bn Interest Rate structure 100% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 50 45.5 45.1 6.6 5.5 9.4 43.8 90% 16.8 17.4 15.3 11.5 45 38.1 39.1 80% 40 35.7 37.1 36.6 33.433.7 33.8 70% 35 31.831.3 30.9 60% 30 50% bn RSD In 25 60.3 57.5 55.2 40% 64.1 64.5 66.4 64.1 20 30% 15 20% 10 10% 5 0% 0 CHF RSD EUR Fixed Rate Variable Rates EUR/RSD and CHF/RSD Exchange Rate Compositon of Variable Interest Rates 125.0 35 120.0 30 115.0 25 110.0 bn RSD In 20 105.0 15 100.0 10 95.0 5 90.0 0 85.0 Euribor Libor Belibor NBS Key Policy Rate Reference Consumer Price Index Others EURRSD NBSA Curncy CHFRSD NBSA Curncy 9 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt – Creditors Structure Debt Stock as of 31 May, Creditors Withdrawn Amount 2019 EIB 30,987,843,625 24,885,933,800 EBRD 15,648,617,021 12,260,727,682 Intesa Bank 15,437,562,010 11,110,042,542 Domestic Creditors Commercial Bank 7,352,918,139 6,229,773,581 42.5% UniCredit Bank 6,339,342,501 2,579,486,756 ERSTE Bank 2,113,697,336 1,343,306,705 Foreign Postanska Stedionica Bank 1,718,973,242 948,468,618 Creditors 57.5% AIK Bank 1,237,991,757 899,526,109 Societe Generale Bank 1,180,604,122 830,327,161 Addiko Bank 823,392,984 366,675,995 Others 9,727,221,310 4,410,056,545 Total 92,568,164,047 65,864,325,495 35 31.0 Withdrawn Amount Debt Stock as of 31 May, 2019 30 24.9 25 20 In RSD bn RSD In 15.6 15.4 15 12.3 11.1 9.7 10 7.4 6.3 6.2 4.4 1.2 5 2.6 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0 10 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration Local Government Debt – Risk Indicators Analysis of Local Government’s Credit Potential Highly Indebted Local Governments The Lowest Credit Potential The Highest Credit Potential Debt Stock as of 31 May, Local Government 2019 Available Long Term Credit Available Long Term Credit Local Government Local Government Beograd 38,286,469,647 Potential Potential AP Vojvodina 5,900,705,488
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