THE RISE, DECLINE, SHALLOWNESS, AND BANALITY OF MILITANT NATIONALISM IN EUROPE: HOBBES, THUGS, "ETHNIC CONFLICT," AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE John Mueller August 11, 1999 Prepared for delivery at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta Marriott Marquis and Atlanta Hilton and Towers, Atlanta, GA, September 2-5, 1999. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. Department of Political Science University of Rochester Rochester, NY 14627-0146 USA 716-275-5236 716-271-1616 (fax)
[email protected] www.rochester.edu/College/PSC/Mueller ABSTRACT Most European nationalism is not of the militant variety, does not necessarily imply violence, and may actually be helpful in the process of development and change. The apparent rise of militant nationalism in Europe in the early 1990s was not a harbinger, but rather something of a historical blip. Moreover, it was often quite shallow, even in Yugoslavia, and its effects were exaggerated by some peculiarities of early experiments with democracy in the area. The most destructive expression of militant nationalism in Europe--that which took place in Yugoslavia--was not spawned so much by the convulsive surging of ancient hatreds or by the crafty manipulations of demagogic politicians and the media: indeed, when finally given a chance to express such hatreds in government-sanctioned violence, ordinary soldiers deserted en masse. Rather, the destruction was largely carried out by small bands of opportunistic thugs and criminals operating in a sort of anarchic situation. In this, nationalism was often more of an ordering device than a viscerally motivating force. Because the violence in Yugoslavia was chiefly carried out by small, opportunistic, and essentially cowardly bands of thugs and bullies, policing the situation would probably have been fairly easy for almost any organized, disciplined, and sizeable army.