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Promotion, Turnover and Satisfaction in the Army Civilian Workforce

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Promotion, Turnover and Satisfaction in the Army Civilian Workforce Dissertation Promotion, Turnover, and Satisfaction in the Army Civilian Workforce An Analysis of Features of Occupation Ladders and Employee Perspectives of the Work Environment Christina E. Steiner This document was submitted as a dissertation in December 2018 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of of Lawrence M. Hanser (Chair), Shanthi Nataraj, Gery Ryan, and Curt Gilroy (outside reader). PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD434.html Published 2019 by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Abstract Every organization is inherently interested in optimizing its talent pool; as an employer, the government is no exception. Retaining the workforce’s highest-performing employees maximizes the return on an employer’s financial investment in these individuals. Promotion can be a retention tool, while occupations that lack promotion opportunity may cause high performers to leave in search of new employment. This dissertation explores the relationships between promotion, turnover, employee satisfaction, and the positioning and movement of people in an occupation. Specifically, it utilizes Army civilian personnel data to: (1) describe the features of occupation ladders; (2) characterize expected promotion opportunity using the features of occupation ladders; (3) determine if the features of occupation ladders are related to promotion and turnover; and (4) explore additional determinants of turnover by analyzing employee perspectives. Using quantitative methods, the analysis provides insights on how promotion and turnover are associated with features of the occupation ladder and work environment. Specifically, the analyses reveal that a one standard deviation increase in expected promotion opportunity is significantly correlated with a 1.72 (GS11), .81 (GS12), .36 (GS13), and .19 (GS14) percentage point increase in actual promotion rates; a moderate effect size given that the average promotion rate in GS-11 is 8.9 percent and GS-14 is 2.2 percent. The analyses also reveal that employees who do not have promotion opportunity within the same occupation and location are more likely to leave their occupation. However, there is limited evidence that employees who do not have promotion opportunity within the same occupation and location are more likely to leave the organization. Finally, the analyses provide initial evidence that low perceived support from supervisors is linked to both occupation and organizational turnover. While there is evidence in the literature that promotion opportunity is related to turnover, and that support from supervisors is related to turnover, more data are needed to corroborate these initial findings before large-scale policy changes are considered. Instead, the Army may consider low-cost interventions to limit potentially undesirable turnover. For example, the Army may consider creating a mechanism for employees to voice concern about promotion opportunity via an employee’s Individual Development Plan (IDP) or an initial training for new supervisors outlining best practices for supporting direct reports. iii Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... ix Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................. x Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Research Aims and Questions .................................................................................................................. 2 Chapter 2: Civilian Service Management and Policy ..................................................................... 4 General Schedule and Senior Executive Service Pay Systems................................................................. 5 The Promotion Process ............................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 3: Analytical Context ...................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 4: Literature Review ........................................................................................................ 16 Promotion ............................................................................................................................................... 16 Information, Education, and Promotions............................................................................................ 16 Gender as a Determinant of Promotion .............................................................................................. 17 Turnover and Retention .......................................................................................................................... 18 Individual Factors Related to Turnover .............................................................................................. 19 Workplace Factors Related to Turnover............................................................................................. 20 External Economic Factors Related to Turnover ............................................................................... 23 Features of the Occupation Ladder and Organizational Hierarchy ........................................................ 23 Larger Context for Army Civilian Workforce ........................................................................................ 27 Economic Determinants of Public Sector Employment ..................................................................... 27 Psychological Determinants of Public Sector Employment ............................................................... 27 Promotion in the Civil Service ........................................................................................................... 28 Specific Civil Service Promotion and Turnover Studies .................................................................... 29 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 32 Contribution to the Literature ................................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 5: Data, Analytic Sample, and Data Adjustments ........................................................... 34 I. Raw Data Files ................................................................................................................................. 34 DMDC Data ....................................................................................................................................... 34 II. The Analytic Sample ........................................................................................................................ 36 III. Major Data Adjustments .................................................................................................................. 37 National Security Personnel System Pay Bands ................................................................................ 37 Chapter 6: Characterizing the Occupation Ladder ........................................................................ 38 I. Structure and Transition Measures of the Occupation Ladder ......................................................... 38 II. Developing Local Measures: A Note about the Role of Region in Structure and Transition Measures .......................................................................................................................................... 41 v Chapter 7: Creating and Validating
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