The Mobile Wallet Could Be a “Credit Card Killer”, Or at Least a Major Contender in the Purchase Process

Research for Marketers by Marketers

Driving analysis, insights and strategic thinking through tools, audience trends and customized quantitative and qualitative primary research.

The Mobile buy Wallet

The mobile payments space is rapidly evolving, with everyone from Apple to Visa releasing ways to pay by mobile device. Mobile payments are expected to more than double this year, to nearly $9 billion.

With this much at stake, the major players are competing fiercely for a share of the consumer’s mobile wallet. Penetration is low—for now. In time, the mobile wallet could be a “credit card killer”, or at least a major contender in the purchase process.

June 2015 Learn more about Annalect’s research team at annalect.com. The Future is Bright for Mobile Payments

Mobile payments reached $3.5 billion last year and are on track to grow rapidly in the coming years, especially between this year and the end of next year, when value is expected to triple.

US Proximity Mobile Payment Transaction Value, 2013-2018 (billions and % change)

207% $118.01

156% 117% 120% 133%

$64.00

$27.47 84%

$8.95 $1.59 $3.50

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Proximity mobile payment % change transaction value

Source: eMarketer, September 2014 The Mobile Wallet | 101

The beauty of the mobile wallet means not having to worry about carrying around cards (credit, debit, loyalty) and using something you already have on you at all times: your mobile device. The space is primarily concerned with payments but it extends to other functions like ticketing.

The most common methods for mobile payments in-store require you to tap your device on a payment reader, or scan a code using your device’s camera, or attach a credit card reader to your device. The technology involved in these methods differs. MST (magnetic secure transmission) works for older point-of-sale devices that read magnetic strips from plastic cards. NFC (near field communication) powers contactless payments that only work at newer POS terminals.

The mobile wallet space is getting more fragmented by the day. The current main players are Apple Pay, PayPal, and Google Wallet. This summer, Android Pay and Samsung Wallet will become available, with Android Pay replacing the functionality of Google Wallet.

Apple Pay Android Pay Paypal / Samsung MCX / Paydiant CurrentC

Launch Fall 2014 This summer Fall 2013 This summer TBA

Technology NFC NFC QR Code / Both NFC QR Code Cloud Wallet and MST

Strengths + user + large, young + strong fraud + high + backed by experience user base protection adoption rate powerful at merchants, conglomeration + high + brand-friendly + smooth user thanks to use of of merchants awareness, thanks to open experience, NFC and MST buzz source system incl. beacons technology + could offer lower prices by + affluent user + automatic + rich portfolio + automatic base enrollment of cards on saving on enrollment with merchant fees w/ phone file phone + automatic + works on any + can work w / enrollment phone carrier MCX (see w/ phone right)

+ works on any phone carrier

Limitiations - many - many - accepted at - late entry - clunky user merchants merchants few locations, experience don’t support don’t support better for - only on S6 NFC payments NFC payments m-commerce phones - doesn’t accept many - no rewards - late entry credit cards program - security issue: - only iPhone primary source users is customer’s checking account

© Annalect 2015 The Mobile Wallet | Jun 2015 4 Apple Pay saw immediate success—just one month after launching, it made up 1% of digital dollars (with PayPal at 78% and Google Wallet at 4%). Its main problem is that it isn’t available at many retailers or on as many phones, compared to Android Pay, which will be enabled to work on seven out of ten Android devices and at 700,000 merchants.

Unlike Android and Apple versions, Samsung Wallet will work nearly anywhere, even at the millions of old-fashioned checkout terminals that don’t have a wireless connection.

MCX/CurrentC is backed by a consortium of merchants (including Walmart, Best Buy, and Target) who have been building their own mobile wallet to bypass fees, saving costs for themselves and customers. In addition, Visa, MasterCard, and Capital One have all released their own payment services as well.

Not all mobile payments are consumer-to-retailer; the option for peer- to-peer payment is available through apps like Venmo. Have you ever faced an awkward settling of the restaurant bill when someone forgets cash? Mobile P2P (peer-to-peer) payments solve that pain point—in fact, 1 Nielsen, July 2014 the dining category makes up almost half of P2P mobile spend. 1

Consumer Interest

other Male vs Female male Age 47% 10%

35-55 35%

female 18-34 53% 55%

Who are mobile payment users? Men and women are about evenly represented, 47% and 53%, respectively. Mobile users 18-34 account for the majority (55%), while 35% are age 35-54. Interestingly, users span all income levels, with the highest usage among those making less than 2 Nielsen: The Mobile $50,000 (32%) and more than $100,000 (29%).2 Among 18-24 year olds, Wallet, 2014 cash is king; it’s more used than plastic or mobile, making up half of all 3 Federal Reserve their purchases.3 Board, April 2014

© Annalect 2015 The Mobile Wallet | Jun 2015 5 US mobile payments reached $3.5 billion in 2014, an increase of 120% YOY. Despite these numbers, less than 25% of consumers say they are 4 451 Research, likely to use mobile payments, only a small increase from one year ago.4 March 2015 Still, nearly one-third of shoppers surveyed plan to make more mobile payments this year, and the majority of consumers believe that mobile 5 eMarketer, July 2014 payments will become widely used by 2019. 5 6 6 AYTM via Statista, August 2014 The U.S. is just starting to catch up to the rest of world; globally, mobile payments reached $507 billion in 2014, with APAC and LATAM leading the way.

So why is consumer interest low? The overwhelming consensus is that consumers are comfortable with their current payment systems and 7 Mintel, October 2014 aren’t interested in switching or learning a new method.7

Convenience can motivate them, but most consumers find swiping a card easy enough. After that, security concerns are the top obstacle, with 27% of respondents stating that mobile payment apps are less secure than traditional credit cards. Still, others see mobile payments as clunky or gimmicky. And as this sector is both young and fragmented, some consumers might be confused where to even start.

The bottom line? Shoppers are not motivated to change payment form unless they see opportunities to save money—thus, value-adding features are a must. The mobile wallet can offer consumer extras in order to entice them to a new form of payment—rewards programs, coupons, gift cards, and promotions. Price comparisons and access to loyalty points are the features consumers are most interested in.7

US Mobile Payments 2014 $3.5B

120% YOY

The landscape is rapidly evolving. Six months ago, Apple Pay’s launch had a major impact; it brought awareness of mobile payments to a wider array of consumers, but it also prompted other companies to boost their own efforts in the space. To compete in this arena, some players have made significant acquisitions (like Samsung’s purchase of LoopPay), while others like Facebook and Amazon are developing their own payment products. The acquisitions and partnerships are not necessarily equating to market consolidation—the marketplace continues to be fragmented. The most likely catalyst for mobile payment adoption is the future fleet of 8 Federal Reserve Board, smartphones, which will have built-in wallets. 8 March 2014

As consumers spend more time on messaging apps, mobile payments are becoming increasingly intertwined with those services. Snapchat’s new payment app, Snapcash, is powered by mobile payment pioneer Square. Pay-by-message apps are growing, like Tencent’s WeChat and PayPal’s Venmo. In the near future, Facebook will facilitate payments through Messenger, Google will let consumers pay bills through Gmail, and Twitter will let users pay through tweets. Through the interlinking of social media and payments, the mobile wallet could become a new marketing channel.

Acceptance of Mobile Payments Among Retailers

Already Plan to accept Plan to accept accepted within 12 months within 1-3 years

Paypal 13% 18% 31%

Apple Pay 8% 30% 18%

Mobile payment in app 5% 13% 35%

Google Wallet 3% 15% 28%

Softcard 3% 13% 13%

CurrentC - 8% 13%

Bitcoin - 8% 5%

Source: Boston Retail Partners, % of respondents among North American retailers, January 2015

It’s not just about mobile payments—the mobile wallet will span many features. But at the moment, penetration is relatively low and consumers are still wary. To convince consumers to test the waters, marketers must take several actions: emphasize added-value features, combine many features in one convenient place, and offer solutions for consumers’ pain points (eg. see value on a card/store credit, access loyalty points, and retrieve digital receipts).

Increasingly, mobile users are spending most of their time on just a few apps, especially messaging and social media apps. By adding payment options to these, marketers can take advantage of new audience portals. Brands that establish a presence on these apps benefit from mobile user engagement, but they must also keep in mind that they are “borrowing” the mobile moment. Any branded content must keep the user in mind, offering an experience that is valuable and personalized, not merely convenient.

1) Starbucks has leveraged these principles into the biggest mobile wallet success story yet. The brand averages over 7 million mobile transactions in stores each week, representing 16% percent of total tender - far more than any other brick-and-mortar store. As Starbucks has brought millions of customers into the mobile payments space, they are taking the technology a step further, with mobile ordering. This option is set to roll out nationally by the end of 2015.

2) Transportation services in Boston (MBTA) have lured commuters into using mobile payments by offering both convenience and price. The mobile ticket is purchased before boarding the train or boat and once onboard, the conductor simply checks the screen. Shortly after, the ticket self-destructs. This mobile ticket is not just seamless but also cheaper, which should entice many consumers.

• Despite the wide array of offerings, penetration remains low, although increased exposure to mobile payments is helping drive adoption.

• Security is a double edged sword for mobile payments; while many consumers don’t trust this technology, some say they are more secure than cards, as they can require measures like biometric identification and tokenization (substituting a surrogate value for the customer’s identification data so the merchant never has access to it).

• In order to grab a piece of this valuable market, tech giants and retailers need to constantly innovate what the mobile wallet can do.

• The biggest challenge will be convincing consumers to switch to a new method of payment when they are satisfied with their current method.

• Marketers must emphasize the added value of mobile payments, including rewards and promotions.

• As the market matures and the number of users grows, merchants plan to increase their acceptance of mobile payments.

• What will likely drive adoption is new smartphones with built‑in wallets, along with consumers’ growing attachment to their devices, including shopping on them.

Allison Cramer Kathy Grey Market Trends Analyst and Curator, Director, Tools & Insights Tools & Insights [email protected] [email protected] 212-590-7458 212-590-0689

195 Broadway, 19th floor New York, NY 10007 annalect.com

/annalect

/annalectgroup

/company/annalect-group

Research for Marketers by Marketers

Driving analysis, insights and strategic thinking through tools, audience trends and customized quantitative and qualitative primary research.