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Impacts of a Ban Or Restrictions in Sale of Items in the EU's Single Use Plastics Directive

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Impacts of a Ban Or Restrictions in Sale of Items in the EU's Single Use Plastics Directive SOCIAL RESEARCH NUMBER: 32/2020 PUBLICATION DATE: 19/05/2020 Preliminary Research to Assess the Impacts of a Ban or Restrictions in Sale in Wales of Items in the EU's Single Use Plastics Directive Mae’r ddogfen yma hefyd ar gael yn Gymraeg. This document is also available in Welsh. © Crown Copyright Digital ISBN 978-1-80038-424-8 Title: Preliminary Research to Assess the Impacts of a Ban or Restrictions in Sale in Wales of Items in the EU's Single Use Plastics Directive Author(s): George Cole, Resource Futures Carla Worth, Resource Futures Katie Powell, Resource Futures Sam Reeve, Resource Futures Susie Stevenson, Miller Research (UK) Nick Morgan, Miller Research (UK) Howard Walker, Bridge Economics Full Research Report: Cole, G; Worth, C; Powell, K; Reeve, S; Stevenson, S; Morgan, N; Walker, H (2019). Preliminary Research to Assess the Impacts of a Ban or Restrictions in Sale in Wales of Items in the EU's Single Use Plastics Directive. Cardiff: Welsh Government, GSR report number 32/2020 Available at: https://gov.wales/impacts-ban-or-restrictions-sale-items-eus-single- use-plastics-directive Views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government For further information please contact: Isabella Malet-Lambert Knowledge and Analytical Services Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ 03000 628250 [email protected] Table of contents List of tables ........................................................................................................................... 2 List of figures.......................................................................................................................... 3 Glossary ................................................................................................................................. 4 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 6 2. Definitions and Scope ............................................................................................. 12 3. Methodology ............................................................................................................ 21 4. Findings - Market failure and the case for intervention ............................................ 37 5. Findings - The market for each single-use product ................................................. 41 6. Findings - Market mapping in Wales ....................................................................... 57 7. Findings - Stakeholder consultation ........................................................................ 62 8. Findings – Considerations in implementing legislation ............................................ 71 9. Findings – Life cycle thinking and life cycle analysis ............................................... 74 10. Findings – Model impact estimates ......................................................................... 83 11. Discussion ............................................................................................................... 99 Reference section .............................................................................................................. 104 Annex A. LCA results comparing single-use plastic and non-plastic products ................... 112 Annex B. Further details on manufacturer market leaders ................................................. 113 Annex C. Key economic impacts for individual products .................................................... 114 Annex D. Record of data sources and assumptions .......................................................... 115 1 List of tables Table 1.1. Products and measures in the EU SUP Directive……………………………………7 Table 3.Error! No text of specified style in document.1. Organisations contributing to the research………………………………………….25 Table 3.2. Decomposition rates for common types of marine debris .................................. 31 Table 3.3. Market growth rate uncertainty – sensitivity analysis values ............................... 35 Table 3.4. Plausible upper and lower range analysis around the central estimate .............. 36 Table 3.5. Further variables tested for plausible upper and lower range analysis ............... 36 Table 4.1. Beach litter items and findings from the Great British Beach Clean 2019 in Wales ................................................................................................................................ 39 Table 6.1. List of identified Welsh manufacturers ................................................................ 58 Table 9.1. The number of times bags need to be used to result in the same CO2eq emissions as single-use HDPE ............................................................................... 81 Table 10.1. Baseline assumption of volumes placed on market in Wales, millions of units . 87 Table 10.2. All products, financial impact estimates, NPV 2021 to 2030 (£m) ..................... 89 Table 10.3. Market growth rate uncertainty - lower sensitivity results, all products, NPV 2021 to 2030 (£m) ............................................................................................................ 93 Table 10.4. Market growth rate uncertainty - upper sensitivity results, all products, NPV 2021 to 2030 (£m) ................................................................................................... 94 Table 10.5. Other uncertainties around the central estimate - lower sensitivity results, all products, NPV 2021 to 2030 (£m) ........................................................................... 96 Table 10.6. Other uncertainties around the central estimate - upper sensitivity results, all products, NPV 2021 to 2030 (£m) ........................................................................... 97 Table C.1. Key financial impact estimates of individual products, NPV 2021 to 2030 (£m)114 Table D.1. Model assumptions for plastic products ..…………………………………………115 Table D.2. Model assumptions for alternative products ..…………………………………….115 Table D.3. Sources of data and assumptions used in impact model…………………….….116 2 List of figures Figure 2.1. Plastic-stemmed cotton buds ............................................................................. 13 Figure 2.2. Plastic fork ......................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2.3. SUP plates ......................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2.4. Plastic drinking straw ......................................................................................... 15 Figure 2.5. Plastic beverage stirrer ...................................................................................... 16 Figure 2.6. Plastic balloon stick............................................................................................ 16 Figure 2.7. EPS/XPS take-out containers, food trays, chip cones, and portion pots ............ 17 Figure 2.8. 25x close-up of XPS (left) versus EPS (right) .................................................... 18 Figure 2.9. EPS beverage cup and lid ................................................................................. 19 Figure 3.1. Schematic indicating the main calculations in the impact model for a scenario . 26 Figure 3.2. Description of the calculated litter impacts ......................................................... 29 Figure 3.3. Cone of uncertainty ............................................................................................ 34 Figure 6.1. Welsh businesses in the food and drink service by employment size band ...... 59 Figure 6.2. Welsh businesses in food retail industry by employment size band .................. 60 Figure 9.1. Relationship between life cycle thinking and circular economy .......................... 75 Figure 9.2. The global warming potential impacts of each type of carrier bag ..................... 80 assuming each is reused to outperform a conventional HDPE bag with .............................. 80 no reuse ............................................................................................................................... 80 Figure 10.1. Market share of SUP products in Wales in Ban and No Ban scenario – Group 1 SUP products .......................................................................................................... 85 Figure 10.2. Market share of SUP products in Ban and No Ban scenario – Group 2 SUP products .................................................................................................................. 86 Figure A.1. LCA results for functional unit of one use of a product .................................... 112 3 Glossary Term Definition BBIA Bio-based and Biodegradable Industries Association Biodegradable A plastic capable of undergoing physical, biological plastic decomposition, such that it ultimately decomposes into carbon dioxide (CO2), biomass and water, and is, in accordance with European standards for packaging, recoverable through composting and anaerobic digestion (definition source: EU SUP Directive) BSDA British Soft Drinks Association CEN European Committee for Standardisation Defra Department for Environmental, Food and Rural Affairs DRS Deposit Return Scheme ECHA European Chemicals Agency EPR Extended producer responsibility EPS/XPS Expanded / extruded polystyrene Global warming A measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in potential the atmosphere up
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