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Focus ON INDIA No MORE : INDIA’S NUCLEAR POLICY / 48 In 1998, India transformed its status to a nuclear weapon 18 / A REMARKABLE TURNAROUND: state. Its nuclear policy is based on two pillars: U.S.-INDIA RELATIONS minimum deterrence and no first use. The world s two largest democracies were estranged for By Vijai K Nair 50 years, but they now get along. How did this occur? Is the newfound friendship likely to endure? By Dennis Kux FEATURES

24 / ECONOMIC REFORM IN INDIA: PALESTINE: THE PROBLEM AND THE PROSPECT / 55 How DEEP? HOW FAST? All parties to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including Economic data appear to support both optimism and Arab and Western governments and the U.N., need to take pessimism, but a look behind the numbers reveals several concrete steps to help bring peace to the Middle East. encouraging trends that give the optimists an edge. But above all, the U.S. must lead. By Joy deep Mukherji By Terrell E. Arnold

29 / SEEKING THE MIDDLE GROUND: APPRECIATION: RICHARD 1. QUEEN, 1951-2002 / 62 INDIAN POLITICS IN FLUX After nearly 50 years of Congress Party rule, COLUMNS the rise of coalition government and a reinvigorated federalism are transforming PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 the political equations in India. On the Front Lines of Diplomacy By Walter Andersen By John K. Naland

35 / INSIDE THE INDIAN FOREIGN SERVICE SPEAKING OUT /15 Among developing countries, the Indian Foreign Service How to Truly Transform Afghanistan is one of the older and better developed diplomatic By Edmund McWilliams services. An insider discusses the IFS s origins and present-day contours. REFLECTIONS/ 76 By Kishan S. Rana By Matthew Murray DEPARTMENTS 42 / OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGE: INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TODAY LETTERS/7 New Delhi has been working on its post-Cold War CYBERNOTES / 12 priorities with measured realism, but uncertainties IN MEMORY / 64 abound in the new period of adjustment. BOOKS / 68 By K. Shankar Bajpai INDEX TO ADVERTISERS / 74 Page 18 AFSA NEWS / CENTER INSERT Cover and inside illustrations by Dana Cooper

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FOREIGNJSERVICE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published _I_.I 0 II R N A L Editor Editorial Board monthly by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit organization. Material appearing here¬ STEVEN ALAN HON LEY CAROLINE MEIRS, in represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent the views of the Journal, the Editorial Associate Editor CHAIRMAN Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSA SUSAN B. MAITRA Business Manager LISA BRODEY Members - $9.50 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign air¬ MIKKELA V. THOMPSON WES CARRINGTON mail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Manchester, N.H., and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Ad & Circulation Manager ELIZABETH SPIRO CLARK Send address changes to Foreign Service Journal, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Indexed ED MILTENBERGER MAUREEN S. DUGAN AFSA News Editor by Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts, photos SHAWN DORMAN JOHN DWYER or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein does not imply the Art Director CAROL A. GIACOMO CARYN J. SUKO endorsement of the services or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. E-MAIL: [email protected]. EDWARD MARKS Editorial Intern WEB: wvw.afsa.org. TELEPHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service Association, 2001. Printed ARNOLD SCHIFFERDECKER ERIC RIDGE in the U.S.A. Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037- Advertising Intern HOLLIS SUMMERS 2990. Printed on 50 percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. NING ZHANG WILLIAM WANLUND

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This month, I every employees career and that they am scheduled to Staffing is an supported AFSAs proposal earlier this testily before the year that State adopt a fair-share Subcommittee on ever-moving target. assignment rule. Unfortunately, State National Security If the administration turned down our proposal, arguing of the House of and Congress set instead that States senior leadership Representatives would achieve the fair-share goals by , Government new requirements applying existing bidding rules. I will Reform Committee. The topic is it is vital that they tell the lawmakers that, while I do not Foreign Service staffing overseas, with also provide the doubt the determination of States specific focus on the June 2002 current leadership to accomplish this, General Accounting Office report enti¬ necessary' increased their predecessors had failed to do so tled “Staffing Shortfalls and Ineffective funding for them. and, absent new rules, dieir succes¬ Assignment System Compromise sors might also fail. Diplomatic Readiness at Hardship Workforce Planning: Finally, I will Posts.” In my testimony, I will focus on eral years for die planned “training highlight die fact that staffing is an several areas: float” of additional student positions ever-moving target. For example, in Short-Staffing: I will stress tiiat the at FSI to permit all employees the coming years we may need more most important tiling that lawmakers bound for language-designated posi¬ consular officers to interview a higher could do to improve overseas staffing tions to receive the necessary train¬ percentage of visa applicants. Given would be to pass the FY 2003 and FY ing. It will also take several more the ongoing war on terrorism, we 2004 appropriations bills funding the years of promotions to refill the FSO could well need additional completion of Secretaiy Powells mid-ranks that are now depleted as a Diplomatic Security special agents. three-year effort to rebuild our work¬ result of low junior officer intake We might need to open or expand force by hiring 1,158 new employees during the mid-1990s. posts in die Middle East. We might above attrition. That increased staffing Disincentives to Overseas Service: need to put additional staffing into would give State the ability to fill all of Hiring a lot of new employees is only public diplomacy. If the administra¬ its overseas positions for the first time half die job. Those new hires (and we tion and Congress set such new since die end of the Cold War. veterans) must also be retained. I will requirements, it is vital diat they also Skills and Experience: Unfor¬ tell die lawmakers that the lack of provide the necessary increased fund¬ tunately, even if State hires the 1,158 locality pay overseas is a growing disin¬ ing for them. Otherwise, we will be new employees by the target date of centive to overseas service. I will also forced once again to leave positions September 2004, the department say diat State can and should do more vacant and to rush employees to post will not yet have attained its goal of to improve the quality of life at hard¬ without adequate language and other “getting the right people in the right ship posts. training. place at the right time with the right Fair-Share Service: On die issue of The next two years will be critical skills.” For example, it will take sev- staffing hardship posts, I will report ones in die effort to strengthen U.S. that the vast majority of Foreign diplomatic readiness. AFSA is com¬ John K. Noland is the president of the Service members believe that service mitted to working with Secretary American Foreign Service Association. at differential posts should be a part of Powell to achieve diis vital task. ■

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6 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2 0 02 LETTERS

Our Not-So-Secret Weapon and libraries. We don’t have a big pot CORRECTION I would like to compliment the of money, but we have made consid¬ Due to an inadvertent editing Journal and John Naland for his col¬ erable donations to the FSN error on p. 35 in the story umn about retirees, “AFSA’s Secret Emergency Fund following disasters “Encounter at Palazzo Corpi” in Weapon” (July-August FSJ). Here in and to the Senior Living Foundation. the July-August issue, the Turkish Florida we’re not so secret, however. FSRA members have volunteered to word “gel” mistranslated. The Foreign Service Retirees participate in Foreign Service The correct meaning is “come.” Association of Florida recently cele¬ recruiting endeavors here in our brated its 20th anniversary and now state. We have collected over 130 has some 850 members. I’m fairly tales, stories and vignettes of Foreign We Are the Foreign Service certain we are die largest and most Service fife and are attempting to find As a first-tour Foreign Service offi¬ active of the more than 20 Foreign a publisher to put diem into book cer, I want to congratulate and thank Sendee retiree organizations outside form in the near future. Roy Perrin for his advocacy for junior of Washington, D.C. We meet five We have also been distributing our officers related to the new salary scale times a year around die state to newsletter to 23 other Foreign Service policy. At the same time, we should share good food and good compan¬ retiree organizations, and someday we thank the leadership in Guatemala, ionship and to hear interesting may be able to develop a more struc¬ especially Ambassador Prudence speakers, ranging from a hospice tured network for retirees around the Bushnell, for similarly strong sup¬ director to a newspaper publisher country to work for die common good. port of the junior officers on that and a Frank Lloyd Wright expert. Inoin Rubenstein issue. Amb. Bushnell reminded us We’ve also had our own Marc FSO, retired that we are the Foreign Sendee, and Grossman, Thomas Pickering and Chair, Foreign Service that we should not blame “them” for Grant Green from the Department Retirees Association of policies that we do not like. But nei¬ of State. We hope to host Secretary Florida ther should we accept the status Powell one of these days. Plantation, Fla. quo. Instead, we should raise our We have taken public stands in let¬ voices in just the type of creative ters to the media and to our elected Praise for Fiction Issue dissent that the June 2002 issue representatives on increasing die for¬ Permit me to congratulate you and salutes. eign affairs budget, rapid confirma¬ die Journal staff on an outstanding Lets hope that in the future, we tion of career officers to ambassador¬ July-August issue. The added attrac¬ can more often advocate policies ships and other vital but nonpartisan tion of a section of fiction pieces adds that benefit U.S. citizens and people issues. FSRA conducts three Elder- considerably to die general interest of in the countries in which we serve, hostels a year about the Foreign die articles. Keep up the good work! and less often have to seek fair treat¬ Service, family life overseas, etc. Last Henry E. Mattox, Ph.D. ment of ourselves and other Foreign year’s programs were sold out and we FSO, retired Service personnel. expect the same this year. We have a Editor of the American Mary Lou Bartoletti Speakers Bureau to provide experi¬ Diplomacy Web site Consular Officer enced speakers on foreign affairs (americandiplomacy. org) Embassy Guatemala City issues to schools, colleges, civic clubs Chapel Hill, N.C.

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 7 MARKETPLACE L E T T E R S

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8 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RNAL/O C TO B ER 2002 LETTERS

Ashcrofts prosecutors stopped well Service and a specialist in the Middle courage by dissenters tiian all deserve. short of that with Lindh. Berenson was East and I myself have worked in many I recall a subordinate abroad who no Baader-Meinhoff or Patty Hearst in countries in the Middle East for some came to tell me he planned to write a her connection with the Shining Path. years. I can that you will be dissent to one of my telegrams. I lis¬ Even — or perhaps particularly — in receiving a vast nmnber of e-mails and tened to him, agreed, and we sent the batdes against terrorism there are letters objecting to this article from anodier message with his views. He nuances to be considered. many in die U.S. and elsewhere who seemed chagrined that he did not have I refuse Guy’s nomination and wish perhaps are unaware of die true situa¬ the opportunity to dissent. him a more nuanced existence out in tion in Israel and the Occupied Speaking as a retiree who has been Carson City. Territories. As you read those com¬ a Middle East peace activist for over 20 Gunther K Rosinus plaints, I hope you will remember that years, Jerri Bird’s article did not sur¬ FSO, retired there are many out there who cele¬ prise me — only its publication. I had Potomac, Md. brate your courage. long known, from newspaper reading Sam Richmond and stories of Palestinian-American Celebrating Your Courage Newcastle, U.K friends, about Israel’s wholesale viola¬ Many congratulations on publish¬ tions of international law and practice ing Jerri Bird’s article on die torture of Proving Your Independence in the Occupied Territories. But to Palestinian-Americans in Israel (June I was delighted by your June issue. find that American citizens within FSJ). It is extremely refreshing to see Publication of the articles by Ed Peck Israel proper were also denied their such an article in an American publica¬ and Jerri Bird prove diat the FSJ is rights came as a shock. As a three-time tion. My grandfather worked for most independent, not a house organ of the consular officer I was always notified of his life in Palestine, my father was a State Department. when an American citizen was career diplomat in the British Foreign Peck’s article may suggest more detained or arrested, and I was always

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 9 LETTERS

permitted to visit our citizens in deten¬ and realized how communism was fail¬ officer during die Carter administra¬ tion. ing diem. tion) told me shortly before he died The Israeli government will stick to In die old USIA, culture took sec¬ that AFSA vigorously lobbied for die its own interpretation of international ond place to information with its Foreign Sendee Act of 1980. He said law in the Occupied Territories. But emphasis on pamphlets, press releases, die AFSA leadership, zealously dedi¬ inside the 1967 borders? I cannot and die print media. “Culture vul¬ cated to selection-out, favored a statu¬ imagine any American consular officer tures,” we cultural officers were deri¬ tory basis for terminating die careers tolerating without protest the viola¬ sively called. Yet, it was cultural of most Foreign Service officers after tions that Jerri Bird described. exchanges that brought real change to 20 years. I look forward to reading die die Soviet Union and prepared die A debate on the merits of “dissent” departments apologia in your next way for the end of die Cold War, at a would be too narrow. The focus issue. cost diat was miniscule in comparison should be on the principle of selec¬ C. Patrick Quinlan widi expenditures on intelligence and tion-out as die centerpiece of our per¬ FSO, retired die military over die same 30 years. sonnel system. A parallel analysis of Edina, Minn. Yale Richmond die actual role of die Department of FSO, retired State in formulating and implement¬ Graduate Exchanges Work Washington, D C. ing foreign policy within a national In his letter on cultural diplomacy framework overloaded witii represen¬ in die June FS], Sheldon Avenius Debate Time on Selection-Out tatives of die military and intelligence claims diat high-school student AFSA members might usefully communities would provide a useful exchanges are more effective than ponder die theme of a recent article in context. post-graduate Fulbright exchanges The Virginian-Pilot calling for our mil¬ John J. Harter because tiiey are more cost-effective itary establishment to jettison selec- FSO, retired and result in greater attitudinal tion-out, which inhibits internal debate Virginia Beach, Va. change. on key issues and requires premature This is an old debate. Younger stu¬ retirement of highly skilled officers. Praise for MED dents arc more impressionable and die We might do well to consider die same I am writing to let you know about cost of their exchanges is much less, for our corps of professional diplomats. die extraordinary service I received but who can predict which teenagers The up-or-out principle was rarely recendy from the staff of die State will go on to become leaders in dieir applied to Foreign Service officers Department’s Office of Medical chosen professions? The plus for send¬ before die self-styled ‘Young Turks” Services while expecting die birth of ing graduate students is diat it is possi¬ seized control of AFSA in 1968. In die my first child. ble to examine their academic and late 1950s, Loy Henderson repeatedly I arrived in die States on a work- extra-curricular activities and choose blocked efforts to punish “Wristonees” related trip from my post in China die future winners. (Civil Service personnel who were right before the Sept. 11 attacks. Since In my book, Cultural Exchange and forced into die Foreign Service) I was in my last trimester of pregnancy, the Cold War, to be published next dirough selection-out. MED recommended diat I not return year by Penn State Press, I show how It is no coincidence that the Dissent to China until after giving birth. Soviet society and attitudes were Channel (as described in die June Because of this cautious and humani¬ changed by die thousands of graduate issue) was instituted shortly after selec¬ tarian decision, I received die very best students, senior scholars, scientists, tion-out became a ritualistic feature of care from high-risk specialists and my engineers, writers, and otiier members die Foreign Service. This was also die daughter was born widiout incident. of the intelligentsia who came to die period when many FSOs ran afoul of Throughout die time I spent in die United States and Western Europe on misbegotten tragedies in Vietnam, States, Kay Boyer, R.N., was always exchanges between 1958 and 1988. Iran, Central America and elsewhere, helpful and seemed to follow my They came, they saw, diey were con¬ ostensibly aimed at “containing” progress witii genuine interest and quered, and the Soviet Union would Communism. Before 1968 a diplomat concern. never again be the same. Gorbachevs could assert and apply a healthy con¬ I am so impressed that MED chose reforms did not begin in 1985. They science and independent analysis widi- life over everything else. When you had been gestating in die minds of out unduly shortening his career. work for a big faceless organization Soviet citizens who had seen die West Ben Read (our top management like die federal government, you don’t

10 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/O C T OB E R 2002 LETTERS

expect to find that people at the heart of it are more concerned about the safety of a baby than they are about squeezing a few more hours of work out of the mother. Gwen B. Lyle Commercial Officer Consulate General Guangzhou, China

Praise for May and June Issues We finally got our Foreign Service Journal deliveries sorted out here in Montevideo. I especially liked the May issue focusing on family life abroad and the working situation (lack of employment opportunities,) for family members. I hope these voices will Contact Dana Martens, Diplomatic Sales Director make a difference in D.C. (202) 537-3000 Voice / (202) 537-1826 Fax I read top to bottom Ellen E-mail: [email protected] • www.martenscars.com 4800 Wisconsin Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20016 Rafshoons piece on Harry Bingham in the Jvme issue. As a journalist by pro¬ fession, I have to say it was excellent. Marlene M. Nice Community Liaison Officer SEVEN MINUTES TO STATE DEPARTMENT Embassy Montevideo, Uruguay No Pidgin (P As die General Services Officer in Istanbul from 1990 to 1993,1 oversaw COLUMBIA PLAZA the maintenance unit, and was die APARTMENTS immediate supervisor of the Turlash Capital Living FSN maintenance chief. The same With Comfort and Convenience individual I supervised then is on die job today. Ruby Carlino (“Encounter at SHORT TERM FURNISHED APARTMENTS AVAILABLE Palazzo Corpi,” July-August FSJ ) has Utilities Included 24 Hour Front Desk built an interesting short stoiy around Complimentary Voice Mail Garage Parking Available some of die Palazzo Corpi legends Courtyard Style Plaza Shopping on Site known to all who have served in Polished Hardwood Floors Cardkey Entry/Access Istanbul over the last century. Private Balconies River Views However, I can tell you widi absolute Huge Walk-In Closets Minutes to Fine Dining certainty that the maintenance super¬ visor does not speak some sort of Walk to the Kennedy Center and Georgetown Turko-pidgin English, and would Minutes to Foggy Bottom Metro never have said, ‘They get tools and (202) 293-2000 we open this up.” 2400 Virginia Ave., N.W. Dwight Rhoades Washington, D.C., 20037 FSO PdZhflVl, $£M***

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 11 CYBERNOTES

U.S. Terror List It’s less important to have unanimity than it Asia-Pacific region. Catsanis urges the Addition Causes U.S. to be mindful not to let its own Concern is to be making the right decisions and counterterrorism campaign give free The East Turkestan doing the right thing, even though at the rein to governments like Chinas to Islamic Movement, or outset it may seem lonesome. pursue their own campaigns against ETIM, is the first part of the Uighurs and other groups peace¬ the Uighur separatist — Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, fully expressing their wish for inde¬ movement in Chinas Aug. 27, 2002, on the topic of internation¬ pendence or die right to preserve their Xinjiang province to be al support for a proposed U.S. overthrow national and religious identity. designated a foreign ter¬ of the Iraqi regime, at Camp Pendleton. Despite warnings from U.S. rorist organization by tire President Bush and appeals by then- U.S. State Department. U.N. Human Rights Commissioner The decision to add the group to the identity in tire name of the campaign Mary Robinson, Beijing had greatly U.S. list of terrorist organizations against terrorism. stepped up arrests, detentions, sen¬ was announced by Deputy The Uighurs, a Muslim minority in tencing, intimidation and censorship Secretary of State Richard Armitage China with a population of some 7.2 during his early-September visit to million, have been fighting for inde¬ Beijing. Embassy officials said that pendent statehood since 1759, when ETIM had been planning attacks China invaded the Uighur Kingdom of 50 Years against U.S. interests abroad, Eastern Turkestan and annexed it, including the embassy in Kyrgyzstan. later changing its name to Xinjiang Ago The Foreign Terrorist Organization (“new territory”). The largest Uighur Probably one of the most List, begun in 1997, plays a critical revolt was suppressed by Chinese role in the U.S. fight against terror¬ communists in 1945. important qualifications of a ism, and is meant to draw the atten¬ Enver Can, president of the tion of foreign governments and Munich-based East Turkestan Foreign Service officer should encourage them to take action to iso¬ National Congress, says that the late these organizations and prevent Uighurs have never been religious be an awareness of the extent their movement across international extremists, and states that among tire borders. But the move points to the many Uighur organizations around the to which blind chance can complexities inherent in the war on world, the ETIM is virtually unknown terror, especially as it is conducted in and perhaps doesn’t warrant classifica¬ shape and even determine his the culturally-remote Central Asian tion as an independent Uighur group work. Its operation in history theater. at all. According to Can, the ETIM is According to Radio Free Europe a small group of people who fled first leads one to suspect that correspondent Zamira Eshanova to Central Asia, and when govern¬ (www.eurasianet.org), the U.S. ments there began deporting Uighurs diplomacy is at least as much a action has prompted concern on the back to China they went instead to part of both Uighurs and international Afghanistan and Pakistan, where they “game” as it is an “art.” human rights organizations, who received shelter. — James J. Blake, in “Chance worry that Beijing will take it as a “We would ask the U.S. govern¬ in Diplomacy: The Webster- green light to intensify its crackdown ment to be very, veiy, very careful...,” Ashburton Treaty,” FSJ, across the board on Uighur efforts to stated Maya Catsanis, Amnesty October, 1952. preserve their national and cultural Internationals press officer for the

12 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/O C TO B ER 2002 CYBERNOTES

in Xinjiang after Sept. 11, 2001. in the world, separating the real maneuver, there aren’t enough bath¬ Between Sept. 11 and the end of from the unreal can be downright rooms, and let’s not even talk about 2001, it is estimated that 3,000 peo¬ daunting, as a recent blunder by the the parking.” If a new building wasn’t ple were detained and scores sen¬ Beijing Evening News testifies. erected, the Beijing Evening News tenced to long prison terms for “sep¬ According to the Los Angeles reported, lawmakers were prepared aratist offenses.” Times (www.latimes.com), on one to pack up and move to Memphis, fine evening in June, the Evening Tenn., or Charlotte, N.C.! The Race between News’ readers were treated to a hot It was fiction. With a leap of trust in Fact and Fiction news story from Washington: the the authority of the Fourth Estate and It’s not always easy to distinguish U.S. Congress had threatened to its Internet incarnations and faith in truth from fiction. In todays hyper- move out of the District unless a the belief that the Americans are capa¬ informed global village, documen¬ fancy new Capitol was built. “Don’t ble of almost anything, the state-run tary reports from every possible cor¬ get us wrong. We actually the Beijing Evening News had, with ner of hither and yon routinely dilapidated [old] building,” House a straight face, lifted the piece as-is shock, surprise and amaze far better Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., from The Onion, based in New than the most finely-wrought inven¬ was quoted as saying. “But the cruel York and arguably the best of tion could. And with the Internet reality is, it’s no longer suitable for die satirical U.S. “news” publications acting as a vast and instantaneous use by a world-class legislature. Its (www.theonion.com). open market for any and every voice contours are ugly, there’s no room to As the Beijing Evening News learned, being aware of your precon¬ ceptions can prevent embarrass¬ SITE OF THE MONTH: www.SoYouWanna.com ment. And consulting any of the sev¬ Planning a high tea, and haven’t a clue what to serve for eats? Got a great eral interesting satirical sites avail¬ idea for some freelance work, and need to write a business plan? Your able on the Net is a great way to test kid’s become a Buddhist, and you want to know what it means? Want to your grip on reality. Besides, they buy a cell phone, or a laptop, and don’t know where to start? Do you have a can be counted on to produce a book in your head, but can’t get it out? Do you want to learn to play poker? healing belly laugh in even die most You can get substantive, practical answers to these and hundreds more ques¬ jaded student of current affairs. tions without spending another penny on yet one more Dummies tome. Just Apart from The Onion, there is The click your way to SoYouWanna.com, Daily Sedative, a mainstream howler This award-winning Web site has comprehensive, “how-to” explana¬ (www.dailysedative.com), and BBspot, tions in sixteen categories, from apartments (e.g., how to buy a home) to a site devoted to tech humor and beauty & fashion, to education, to etiquette & custom, to money, technol¬ the techie’s take on the news ogy and work (e.g., how to ace an interview). In each category, there are at (www.bbspot.com). Anodier site, least 20 to 25 entries. The write-ups are well organized and generally read¬ SatireWire, has regrettably been able, though at times the effort to be chatty is overdone. For those of you discontinued; the author is no who are really in a hurry, there are condensed versions, the “mini-wannas.” longer updating the site, but main¬ There’s also a bulletin board for those who seek more interactivity, an tains a list of his all-time best gags e-mail newletter, and an online store that guarantees safe shopping. The (www.satu-ewire.com). clincher on this fabulously useful site is the “Cocktail Conversation” For completeness, you may want to department down at the lower right of the home page, where you’ll find consult the Yahoo! Internet Life the most intriguing top-ten lists, a host of movie reviews, and a pros-and- Magazine’s list of the top ten satirical cons primer on today’s “hot-button” issues. sites (www.yil.com/issues/guide.asp? volume=08&dssue=06). ■

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 13 J. KIRBY SIMON FOREIGN SERVICE TRUST The J. Kirby Simon Foreign Service Trust is pleased to announce that it has been approved for participation in the 2002 Combined Federal Campaign of the National Capital Area. The Trust’s 2002 designation number is: 7044.

The Trust, founded in 1995 in memory of Kirby Simon, a Foreign Service Officer who died that year while serving | in Taipei, is primarily committed to funding community service and humanitarian projects conducted, on a voluntary 1 basis, by Foreign Service Officers and Specialists, members of their families, and other U.S Government employees j located at American diplomatic posts abroad. Since its inception, the Trust has approved 127 grants, in amounts rang- \ ing from $250 to $4000, for activities conducted in 68 countries. 3 The Trust has helped Foreign Service personnel to initiate a wide variety of projects - for example, in support of orphanages, libraries, women’s shelters, schools, housing for HIV/AIDs patients and others, income-generating activ- 1 ities, medical facilities, arts and music programs and educational publications. The goods and services funded by the I Trust include refrigerators, washing machines, computers, books, soccer balls, printing services, play equipment, musi- I cal instruments, mattresses, bus fares, skill training courses, toilets, paints and brushes, and wheelchairs. A descrip¬ tion of all Trust grants made through 2001 is available on the Trust’s Website: kirbysimontrust.org. (The 2002 grants will be posted in late October.) A photographic exhibition depicting many of the Trust’s grants will be mounted at the j Foreign Service Institute in the future. The Trust is exempt from Federal income tax under Section 501 (c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, and contribu- | tions to it are tax-deductible. The Trust’s representative in the Capital Area is a Trustee, Colette Marcellin, who can be j reached at (202) 647-4473. Web address: www.kirbysimontrust.org. I Persons without access to the Combined Federal Campaign for the National Capital Area are welcome to contribute \ to the Trust by sending contributions to the Trust at 82 Edgehill Road, New Haven, CT 06511. I The Trustees of the J. Kirby Simon Foreign Service Trust are: Liisa Ecola, Cynthia Ely, Herbert J. Hansell, John George P. Kent, Colette Marcellin, Daniel Morris, Courtney Nemroff, Kathleen Sheehan, Claire B. Simon, John G. Simon.

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14 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN A L/O C T O B E R 2002 SPEAKING OUT How to Truly Transform Afghanistan

BY EDMUND MCWILLIAMS

Those of us in the Foreign ernment is rare, so too is genuine cen¬ Service who have served in Many Afghans fear tral control. Many of these indepen¬ Afghanistan over tire past 40 dent regional leaders are much more years have seen that country’s for¬ that U.S. interest responsive to their own interests (and tunes run the gamut from the rela¬ will not last long foreign influence) than tire urgent tively halcyon era of Zahir Shah’s rule needs of the Afghan nation-state. One through the politically turbulent rule enough to secure a recalls the British aphorism that of President Daoud to tire tragic peri¬ full transformation Afghan warlords can be rented but od of the Soviet invasion and occupa¬ never bought, underscoring the tran¬ tion. There were essentially no of their country. sitory nature of purchased loyalty. American witnesses for the last and Meanwhile, the ethnic and tribal most painful epoch in Afghanistan’s fault lines that have long crisscrossed recent history, encompassing the Afghan territory and history seem to Soviet withdrawal in 1989, subse¬ be growing more active. Perhaps out quent civil wars and the brutal rule of gathered then, reinforced by subse¬ of necessity, the U.S. forces entering tire Taliban, which was based on aber¬ quent conversations with more recent Afghanistan a year ago allied them¬ rant interpretations of Islam drat were visitors to Afghanistan, are not selves with the most significant anti- as foreign to most Afghans as to most encouraging. Taliban force in the field, the of dre Muslim world. Northern Alliance. That force consist¬ Over dre past year a new genera¬ A Country Divided ed primarily of Panjshir Tajiks and tion of Americans has returned to The capital itself embodies the other northern forces organized Afghanistan, not only as witnesses, country’s mixed prospects. Kabul’s essentially along ethnic lines. Except but, to a greater extent than at any northeast has become a boom town, for warlords in the south, notably in time in the previous decades of the with bustling shops and fierce compe¬ the Kandahar area, and small forces bilateral relationship, as shapers of tire tition for office space and housing loyal to Hamid Karzai, Pushtuns — country’s future. Following the swift, among the latest “occupation force” the largest Afghan minority— did not though by no means bloodless, evic¬ — thousands of U.N., diplomatic and play a notable role in the defeat of the tion of the Taliban and tireir al-Qaida NGO personnel. But the southwest Taliban or, most significantly, in tire patrons by U.S.-led international district, a lawless wasteland where capture of Kabul. forces in October 2001, and the ethnic and tribal rivals compete for Since pushing the Taliban out of reopening of Embassy Kabul last dominance, typifies the incomplete Kabul, the U.S. has done little to allay December, U.S. civilian and military and possibly temporary results of growing fears among Pushtuns, and officials have been leading interna¬ international efforts to restore others not part of the Northern tional efforts on tire ground to trans¬ Afghanistan as a responsible member Alliance, that the U.S. is enabling the form Afghanistan. of the international community. Tajiks to gain mrprecedented power In March, I made a private journey The broader Afghan political/mili¬ in Kabul. Pushtuns I spoke to there of my own back to Kabul, partly in tary is similarly dominated earlier tin's year, and have talked with search of old friends but mainly to by ethnic or tribal-based warlords (the since my visit, have cited a growing list assess prospects for the rebirth of a term of art is “regional leaders”) of Tajik/Northem Alliance affronts nation that I, like so many of my fel¬ whose mini-realms function as local they believe have transpired with U.S. low Foreign Service officers, had arbiters of power. While open con¬ acquiescence: come to love. Sadly, the impressions I frontation with President Karzai’s gov¬ • A pogrom mounted against

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 15 SPEAKING OUT

Pushtuns living in the north earlier Open confrontation While U.S. and international this year has led to an exodus of forces are vastiy better equipped, approximately 50,000 Pushtuns who with President trained and more nimble tiian the had lived in the north for generations. KarzaVs government Soviets were, we and our Afghan • Pushtuns captured as “Taliban” allies are vulnerable to the same guer¬ fighters in the north have been sub¬ is rare, but so is rilla tactics of ambush and assassina¬ jected to inhumane conditions in genuine centred tion. Such losses in the field will like¬ Northern Alliance detention facilities ly weigh far more heavily on strate¬ which, while not under U.S. control, control gists in Washington and other are visited by U.S. personnel search¬ Western capitals than they did on die ing for al-Qaida or senior Taliban per¬ totalitarian Soviet leadership. sonnel. Many of these “fighters” were As a result, many Afghans are in fact themselves victims of the apprehensive that — as happened Taliban, dragooned into Taliban ranks mental challenge in Afghanistan was over a decade ago following die with¬ as war erupted in late 2001. Some not human rights abuse, but rather, drawal of die Soviet occupiers — U.S. have been ransomed back to relatives security. “Without security,” she interest and involvement will not be in the south by their Northern observed, “there are no human sufficient to secure a full transforma¬ Alliance captors; others were victims rights.” tion of Afghanistan diat goes beyond of mass killings following their surren¬ Similarly, die Afghan contacts who military liberation to achieve political der in the battle of Kunduz. escorted me inside and outside the and economic reconstruction. • Pushtuns deeply resent die man¬ capital warned diat Taliban adherents It is true that diere is still genuine ner in which die U.S. was seen as and other opponents of the regime appreciation for U.S. action in ousting blocking a potential groundswell of were still active, a point underscored the Taliban from power. Most support for Mohammad Zaliir Shah, both by the periodic assassinations of Afghans even appear prepared to the former Afghan king, at the June Afghan officials and attacks on U.S. accept die significant civilian casual¬ national assembly (Loya Jirga). The and allied forces and a more pervasive ties from die U.S. bombing campaign appearance of U.S. officials in die sense of fear and uncertainty. Even in as die cost of transforming Afghan¬ entourage surrounding Zahir Shall as Kabul, many Afghan women told me istan into a peaceful, democratic he renounced any ambition to lead they continue to wear head-to-toe state. But the growing disillusionment Afghanistan, on die eve of diat gadi- veils because the Taliban-era men of Pushtuns with the underfunded ering, was seen by many Afghans as a (die “vice and virtue” thugs) who and largely ineffective government sign of an American role in that whipped and clubbed diem for failing led by President Hamid Karzai (him¬ announcement. to obey strict dress codes were still in self a Pushtun) and their fear of con¬ • Pushtuns have tended to be, by die streets and markets. “They don’t tinued dominance of state security far, the most common victims of tacti¬ all wear the black turbans now, but we organs by Tajiks have made them cal “mistakes” by U.S. forces in recent know diem.” increasingly reluctant to give active mondis. The human cost of diese Recent reporting from Konar support to U.S. and allied forces. As a errant strikes and Washington s reluc¬ Province and other eastern and south¬ result, efforts to establish an Afghan tance to acknowledge them and make ern provinces indicates preparations national army have barely gotten off restitution has diminished the U.S. in are under way for organized funda¬ the ground. There have been massive the eyes of many Afghans. mentalist resistance to U.S. forces and desertions among the early trainees, • The still-unsolved murder of to the weak central government, especially Pushtuns, many of whom prominent Pushtun Vice President drawing on the centuries-old Afghan chafe at an officer corps that is main¬ Haji Quadir is yet anodier bone of capacity for stealth, deception and ly Tajik, staffed by the U.S. military’s contention in U.S.-Afghan relations. betrayal. Monitoring the anti-Soviet key ally, die Northern Alliance. war from Embassy Kabul (1986-88) To supplement that effort, the Staying the Course and as a special envoy to Afghanistan Karzai government, the United During my visit to Afghanistan in based in Pakistan (1988-89), I Nations and many NGOs have called March, Mary Robinson, former chair¬ observed die effective use of such tac¬ for an expansion of the U.S.-led woman of die U.N. Human Rights tics to wear down and defeat the International Security Assistance Commission, told me diat die funda- much stronger Soviet force. Force to areas outside of Kabul. Only

16 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN AL! O CT O BER 2002 SPEAKING OUT

the ISAF, they argue, can act as arbiter between and among rival regional forces and begin the very dif¬ ficult but essential task of decommis¬ sioning arms, including those in the hands of warlords. Until recently, the Bush adminis¬ FARA tration rebuffed such calls, but it has Foreign Affairs Recreation Association now expressed a willingness to at least FARA Housing Division, Managed by ECMC consider doing force expansion. This is a welcome development, but it is 610 Bashford Lane, Alexandria, VA 22314 essential that die new mission be Ph: (703) 684-1825 Fax: (703) 739-9318 broad enough, and U.S. support We are proud to provide the best hotel values in the Washington, DC strong enough, to ensure tiiat ISAF metropolitan area! You can choose from properties offering studios, forces do not themselves become tar¬ one bedroom, 2-bedroom apartments, suites & hotel rooms. gets. Moreover, the ISAF must have a clear mandate to support central gov¬ Our locations have unique proximity to FSI, State Department, the ernment autiiority against die ambi¬ Pentagon, NFATC, National Airport, Old Town , Alexandria, tions of warlords who have been White House and Georgetown emboldened by their relationships with U.S. forces. Indications the U.S. For more information call for features and rates of participating FARA hotels. may use its diplomatic leadership to induce other governments to fulfill pledges they made to provide finan¬ cial assistance to Kabul are also wel¬ come, though tardy. Even if this approach works, Afghanistan’s history underscores the fact that there are no guarantees. But we can be sure of one tiling: absent sustained U.S. assistance for stabiliz¬ ing the security situation, real trans¬ formation will remain on hold and increasingly doubtful. U

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 17 Focus ON INDIA

A REMARKABLE TURNAROUND: U.S.-INDIA RELATIONS

THE WORLD’S TWO LARGEST DEMOCRACIES WERE ESTRANGED FOR 50 YEARS, BUT THEY NOW GET ALONG. HOW DID THIS OCCUR? IS THE NEWFOUND FRIENDSHIP LIKELY TO ENDURE?

BY DENNIS KUX

ince 1999, relations with India have seen a remarkable turnaround. After half a century of estrangement, tire world’s two largest democracies are finally getting along. President Bill Clinton enjoyed a hugely successful visit to India in March 2000 and President George W. Bush has continued the effort for friendlier and more cooperative ties. And, despite the revival of intimate U.S. security links with Pakistan, since die events of Sept. 11,2001, the improved relationship between New Delhi and Washington has so far held firm. What lies behind the shift from estrangement to engagement? How and why did tiris occur? This article will explore diese questions and consider

18 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 Focus

whether the newfound friend¬ The fact that the nuclear tests from Afghanistan. And, after ship between India and the Islamabad refused to heed United States is likely to were a fait accompli helped Washingtons warnings about endure. its nuclear weapons program, With the benefit of hind¬ lance the boil of nonproliferation American economic and mili¬ sight, it is clear that the end of tary aid was suspended in the Cold War fundamentally that had previously infected October 1990. This action altered the strategic underpin¬ effectively ruptured U.S.- nings of U.S. interaction with bilateral relations. Pakistan security ties. During India. For most of the four the decade of the 1990s, bilat¬ decades of the Cold War, the eral relations further soured United States was a military ally of Pakistan, India’s because of Islamabad’s support for militant Islamic groups enemy. For its part, India, after adopting a policy of neu¬ hi Afghanistan and Kashmir and its lackadaisical approach tralism and nonalignment to avoid entanglement with to anti-narcotics efforts. either of the two contending global power blocs, moved Yet there was little significant warming between closer to the Soviet Union, the chief foe of America. By Washington and New Delhi for nearly a decade, the end of the 1960s, Moscow had become New Delhi's despite the disappearance of the two principal bones of principal source of sophisticated military equipment. bilateral contention, the Indo-Soviet and U.S.-Pakistan The situation changed radically after 1989, when tire security links. India’s economic reforms launched in Soviet Union withdrew its military forces from 1991 led to expanded economic relations and Prime Afghanistan. In 1991, the disintegration of the Soviet Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao’s 1994 visit to the United Union itself deprived New Delhi of its closest security States focused on promoting further growth in trade partner. Even diough India has subsequently established and commerce. Still, during Bill Clinton’s first term close security ties with Russia, the much-diminished suc¬ India remained largely off Washington’s radar screen, cessor state, the large-scale inflow of Russian arms has except for the issue of nuclear nonproliferation. In both stirred scant U.S. concern. Washington no longer regards New Delhi and Washington, an underlying mistrust Moscow either as an enemy or as a major threat to its continued, the lingering legacy of past differences. security. In the case of Pakistan, that nations importance When South Asian Affairs Assistant Secretary Robin for the United States diminished with the Soviet pullout Raphel, in a 1993 press background briefing, slipped in commenting that the United States had never recog¬ Dennis Kux spent 39 years in the Foreign Service, retir¬ nized the accession of Kashmir to India, foreign policy ing in 1994 with the rank of career minister. A South mandarins and media pundits in New Delhi took this Asia specialist, he served overseas in Pakistan, India, as “proof’ that America was still following a Turkey, Germany and the Ivory Coast, where he was pro-Pakistan policy. ambassador. Following retirement Mr. Kux has written At the start of Clinton’s second term in 1997, he extensively on U.S.-South Asia relations and has been a decided to seek a new and friendlier chapter in rela¬ frequent media commentator. He is the author of India tions with India, stressing common interests and val¬ and the United States, 1941-1991: Estranged ues, placing reduced emphasis on the nuclear issue and Democracies (Sage and National Defense University initiating a series of high-level visits that would culmi¬ Presses, 1993), described by The New York Times as “the nate in a presidential trip. The effort was, however, definitive history of Indo-American relations,” and The derailed, first by internal political disarray in India and United States and Pakistan, 1947-2000: Disenchanted then by the decision of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Allies (Wilson Center and Johns Hopkins University Janata Party government that took power after winning Presses, 2001). He is presently a Senior Policy Scholar at elections in early 1998 to test India’s nuclear weapons. the Woodrow Wilson Center and co-executive director of The angry U.S. response to the May 1998 tests and the the Council on Foreign Relations-Asia Society imposition of economic sanctions caused relations to Independent Task Force on India and South Asia, plummet once more.

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 19 Focus

Key Benchmarks For their part, the Indians saw it as veiy much in But the downturn did not last long. Nine rounds of their interest to reciprocate the Bush administration’s talks between Deputy Secretary of State Strobe embrace. Even if New Delhi had little desire to Talbott and India’s Jaswant Singh helped clear the air become a partner in a U.S.-led grouping to contain and gave both Washington and New Delhi a more dis¬ China, it wanted to develop security ties with tinct picture of what each wanted and could expect America, the global superpower, and firm up eco¬ from the other. It finally began to dawn on foreign nomic ties, especially the links diat had burgeoned in policy-makers in both capitals that with Cold War dif¬ the latter half of the 1990s between U.S. and Indian ferences history, there was considerable convergence information technology sectors. Reflecting this atti¬ between U.S. and Indian interests and policies. tude, the Vajpayee government responded to the Moreover, the fact that the nuclear tests were a fait Bush administration’s controversial missile defense accompli helped lance the boil of nonproliferation that proposal more positively than America’s own tradi¬ had previously infected bilateral relations. tional allies in Europe and Asia. New Delhi also The Talbott-Singh dialogue was followed by another downplayed differences with Washington over envi¬ key benchmark — the forceful intervention by President ronmental issues and the Kyoto Protocol, which India Clinton in July 1999 to pressure Pakistan to withdraw its strongly supported in contrast to Bush’s defiant oppo¬ forces after its rash attempt to seize strategic heights sition. near Kargil on the Indian side of the line of control in Osama bin Laden’s terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, Kashmir. Although the Americans acted from fear lest 2001, put the new U.S.-India relationship to an early Pakistan’s action trigger broader conflict, possibly involv¬ test. India promptly endorsed Bush’s stance and ing nuclear weapons, India interpreted the presidential promised full cooperation. In the process, Delhi hoped arm-twisting of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as a sign to turn the “war on terrorism” to its advantage as a that Washington no longer automatically backed lever to end Pakistan’s decade-long covert support for Pakistan on Kashmir. the anti-India insurgency in disputed Kashmir. But The Kargil episode set die stage for the entiiusiasdc when Pakistan itself joined the coalition, ditching its welcome drat Bill Clinton received during his March former Taliban allies, New Delhi feared that 2000 visit to India. The president charmed bodi India’s Washington would tilt toward Islamabad once more. parliament and the public during a wildly successful five- In particular, Indians fretted that the Americans would day trip — the first by a U.S. chief executive in two turn a blind eye to Pakistani support for infiltration by decades. India’s Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee Islamic militants across the Kashmir line of control, paid a more muted but still successful return visit to die the de facto border in the disputed state. United States in September 2000. By die time Clinton The Bush administration, however, adroitly managed vacated die White House in January 2001, he had suc¬ to walk both sides of the street at once, gaining Pakistan’s ceeded in achieving his goal: a new chapter in U.S.-India cooperation in the war against tire Taliban and al-Qaida relations had begun. without jeopardizing the new ties with India. The price Yet it was uncertain whether his successor George W. was Washington’s acceptance of the Indian contention Bush would continue the effort or would revert to the that Pakistan’s activities in Kashmir amounted to terror¬ more traditional Republican preference for Pakistan. It ism and should end. When faced with India’s threat of soon became clear that die new president wanted to take war against Pakistan after the Dec. 13, 2001, attempt to up widi India where Clinton had left off. Bush was espe¬ blow up the Indian parliament and after terrorist attacks cially impressed that India, despite its one billion people in May 2002, tire United States acted forcefully. The and severe economic and social problems, had made a Bush administration repeatedly pressed President success of democracy unlike many third world nations. Pervez Musharraf to stop supporting cross-border infil¬ Once die word was out that Bush “liked” India, his for¬ tration. Along the way it also spumed Pakistani requests eign policy advisers found a strategic rationale to buttress for advanced military hardware, such as F-16 fighter- the president’s stance — common American and Indian bombers, the supply of which would be certain to cause security concerns about China. a severe backlash in India.

20 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U R N A L / O C T O B E R 2002 Focus

Forging Stronger Ties Surprisingly, it is in the ment barring U.S. economic aid to Surprisingly, it is in the security India was defeated by a mere four field that the new relationship with security field that the votes, 204-208. Anti-India con¬ India has moved ahead fastest. After gressmen like Dan Burton, R-Ind., nearly four decades of almost no new relationship with continued to propose the amend¬ interaction between the two defense ment annually, but after the birth of establishments, the Bush administra¬ India has moved the caucus it received fewer and tion has launched a host of new ini¬ fewer “yes” votes. Finally, after tiatives. A steady stream of high-level ahead fastest. 1997, when the anti-India amend¬ military visitors has traveled to and ment lost by 260 votes, Burton from India. Sales of U.S. military equipment and train¬ threw in the towel. ing of Indian military personnel in the United States have The fact that English has emerged as the de facto resumed. There have been joint naval patrols in the national language of India has provided a further sig¬ Malacca Straits and joint special forces exercises in Agra nificant bond. This has been true not only in the high- near the fabled Taj Mahal. Given India’s traditional aver¬ tech area where India boasts a large pool of well- sion to U.S. naval activities in the Indian Ocean and to the trained, English-speaking engineers, but in literature as presence of foreign troops on Indian soil, these two activ¬ well. A few decades back, the sole well-known Indian ities dramatically underscore how much the relationship writer in English was the recendy deceased R. K. has changed. India and the United States have taken sig¬ Narayan. His tales of small-town life in South India nificant steps toward establishing the sort of ties that tire earned him praise in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s as an American military enjoys with a host of friendly nations Indian Chekhov. Narayan stood almost alone, but since around the globe. then many young Indian authors have won prestigious In a very different sense, the emergence of the Indian prizes and best-seller status in the West for their liter¬ ethnic community in die United States has played a ary efforts. major role in paving the way for improved relations. Business and commercial links between the United Before the liberalization of immigration laws in the early States and India have, however, not prospered to the 1960s, Americans of Indian origin numbered no more extent expected after India launched its economic than 25,000. The 2000 census counted 1.7 million. On reforms in 1991. American investment, following a sig¬ the whole — and in contrast to many other immigrant nificant initial rise, has slipped back to about $500 million groups — Indian-Americans are well educated and eco¬ annually, split between direct and portfolio investment. nomically successful. In medicine, the sciences and espe¬ Nor has trade surged. Thanks mainly to burgeoning cially in the computer field, dre Indian edrnic communi¬ information technology-related sales, Indian exports have ty has made a name for itself. passed the $10 billion annual level, but Indian imports Indian-Americans also brought to the United States from America have leveled off at about $4 billion annual¬ a political savvy acquired from experience widi India’s ly. Although die United States is India’s largest trading own democratic system. And as the community pro¬ partner, India ranks only No. 25 for the United States. gressed economically, it became active in die political Botii trade and investment figures pale in comparison arena, making generous financial contributions to elec¬ with U.S. economic interaction witii China, with which tion campaigns. This led to the birth of a bipartisan India, because of its size and population, is often com¬ India caucus in the House of Representatives in 1993, pared. founded by Representatives Frank Pallone, D-N.J., Despite many reforms, India continues to be con¬ whose district has a large concentration of Indian- sidered a difficult place to do business. Especially for Americans, and Bill McCollum, R-Fla. The caucus large-scale undertakings, Indian bureaucracy remains a quickly grew in size and now has about 130 members. formidable bar to rapid action. Inadequate infrastruc¬ It has become a force for better bilateral relations as ture, restrictive labor laws and serious power shortages well as a dampener on anti-India legislation on the Hill. pose significant restraints. Nonetiieless, the Indian Its growing clout is measurable: in 1989, an amend¬ economy is currentiy growing at a better than 6 percent

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 21 Focus

annual rate and many American companies are happy will allow each relationship to develop on its own sepa¬ with their Indian operations, especially those in the rate track. In theory, such an approach is fine, but in prac¬ information technology sector. tice it is difficult to implement because both India and India has become far more open to die global market Pakistan regard die others relations witii America as a than it used to be, despite continuing high tariffs. Coca- zero-sum game. Thus, if New Delhi concludes that Cola, Pepsi-Cola, McDonalds (no beef hamburgers, Washington has put insufficient pressure on Islamabad to however) and most other major U.S. consumer products deliver on President Musharraf's repeated promises to are now readily available. After the end of tire central end support for cross-border infiltration in Kashmir, government monopoly on television, Indians have access U.S.-India relations will suffer. Now, as in the past, die to about as many TV channels as Americans, including way around this problem lies in somehow effecting a four 24-hour news channels. For better or worse, TV major reduction in India-Pakistan tensions. Trying to advertising in India bears a striking resemblance to what achieve tiiis difficult goal, however, quickly lands one in appears on U.S. screens. the marshland of die half-century-old Kashmir dispute. The last time Washington actively tried to “solve” The Road Ahead Kashmir was four decades ago; ever since, die United Looking ahead, what are the potiioles in the path of States has been content to limit its role to conflict avoid¬ what U.S. Ambassador Robert Blackwill terms the “trans¬ ance. During 1962 and 1963, John F. Kennedy strove formed” relationship? The major problem relates to without success to get India’s Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan. The Bush administration has asserted that it has Pakistan’s Ayub Khan to agree to a settlement. The prob¬ delinked relations with the two sparring neighbors, and lem, as veteran diplomat W. Averell Harriman counseled

INDIA: 21st Century Superpower? 2002 DACOR CONFERENCE Opening remarks by Ambassador Alan W. Lukens President, Diplomatic and Consular Officers, Retired Panel I: The Internal Scene Ambassador Dennis Kux Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Former Finance Secretary of India Walter Andersen, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, DOS Teresita Schaffer, Former Ambassador to Sri Lanka Panel II: The External Scene Robert Hathaway, Director, Asia Program; Wilson Center George Perkovich, Author, India's Nuclear Bomb Karl (Rick) Inderfurth, Asst. Sec. of State for South Asia ‘97-’01 Stephen Cohen, Author, India: Emerging Power Keynote Address H.E. Lalit Mansingh, Ambassador of India 8:15 AM to 2 PM Friday, October 11, 2002 World Bank Auditorium (H Street, NW, Between 18th and 19th Streets). $10.00/person (panels and continental breakfast), or $32 per person (panels, breakfast & lunch). Send check (note "conference” on check) to DACOR, 1801F. St., NW, Washington, DC 20006. Include address and phone number. Make checks payable to DACOR Bacon House Foundation, or DBHF. More information: (202) 682-0500.

22 FOREIGN SERVICE JOVRHAL/OC TOBBR 2002 Focus

Kennedy, was that any solution acceptable to India was led anti-China grouping. India sees itself as an indepen¬ unacceptable to Pakistan, and vice versa. In the year dent player in the international arena with a major 2002, not that much has changed, and prospects for an regional and eventually global role. New Delhi has been early resolution are dim. working to improve relations not just widi the United The current dilemma the Bush administration con¬ States but widi other major power centers, including fronts — apart from the impact of U.S. actions on rela¬ Europe, Japan, China and die nations of Southeast Asia. tions with India and Pakistan — is that left to themselves, Even tiiough Indians acknowledge that substantially the two protagonists are unlikely to overcome dieir dif¬ greater economic growdi is needed to claim genuine ferences and are thus likely to face periodic crises over Great Power status, they believe that the country’s more Kashmir. If the United States wants to prevent these, and dian one billion people — one-sixth of humanity — war¬ die related risk of military conflict between nuclear¬ rant a seat on the U.N. Security Council. Nonedieless, armed enemies, it cannot limit its high-level engagement the U.S. has remained unwilling to support India’s bid for to times when India and Pakistan are on die brink of war. Council membership. In the not-too-distant future, how¬ It needs to undertake a sustained effort to get New Delhi ever, Washington will need to shift gears or face a signif¬ and Islamabad into a process of serious dialogue on die icant bilateral problem. issues that divide them, including Kashmir. This task will In dealing with political issues, Washington and New not be easy, especially as India has refused to begin talks Delhi need to show continued sensitivity to each other’s until it is satisfied Pakistan has ended its clandestine sup¬ views. For America, apart from supporting India’s mem¬ port for the anti-India insurgency. bership in the U.N. Security Council, diis mainly means What had been the major issue between India and die avoiding actions in Soutii Asia, especially regarding U.S. in the 1990s, the nuclear problem, is off the radar Pakistan, that India sees as threatening its interests. For Screen for the time being. The Bush administration has India, tiiis means avoiding a reversion to die knee-jerk anti- eased sanctions on export of dual-use items to India, Americanism that prevailed until recent years and is still overcoming a stiff rear-guard action from nonprolifera¬ favored under the guise of anti-globalism by tire far left and tion proponents. India has embraced die U.S. national right extremes of the political spectrum. Substantial expan¬ missile defense initiative. Still, the issue is unlikely to go sion in economic ties would provide greater ballast against away. More dian anything else, concern about possible political upsets by broadening and deepening the links nuclear war triggered Clinton s intervention to defuse the between the two countries. Whedier or not this occurs Kargil crisis in 1999 and, togetiier widi worries about die depends mosdy on India’s continued pursuit of economic impact of India-Paldstan conflict on the war against ter¬ reforms to it to play a role in die world economy rorism, spurred Bush administration efforts to reduce more commensurate with its size and potential, but also on tensions over Kashmir during the past year. Clearly some American willingness to eschew protectionist trade policies. confidence-building measures are desirable to reduce As the Bush administration nears the two-year mark, the risk of nuclear war between die two countries. The prospects that the world’s two largest democracies will be more complex policy challenge, which the Bush adminis¬ able to maintain friendly and cooperative relations remain tration has so far chosen to duck, is to find some way to on the whole encouraging. In both capitals, tiiere exists bring India (and also Pakistan) into the global nuclear bipartisan agreement — in Washington between regime without upsetting the system established by the Republicans and Democrats and in New Delhi between Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. die B JP and die Congress Party—in favor of an improved Then tiiere is the China factor. If security policy plan¬ relationship. Witii India’s representative government firm¬ ners in the Bush administration see ties with India strate¬ ly institutionalized despite serious problems of corruption gically important mainly as a way to provide the United and —as in die United States — major campaign finance States witii a partner in containing China, tiiey are mak¬ difficulties, die two countries share the values common to ing a mistake. Although common concerns about Beijing democracies. Although coincidence of national interests do exist, they do not provide a sound basis for improved will remain the key factor in sustaining friendly ties, shared bilateral ties. While worried about China as a security values matter — and this has become increasingly true threat, India has no interest in becoming part of a U.S.- between India and die United States. ■

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 23 Focus ON INDIA

ECONOMIC REFORM IN INDIA: How DEEP? HOW FAST?

ECONOMIC DATA APPEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM, BUT A LOOK BEHIND THE NUMBERS REVEALS SEVERAL ENCOURAGING TRENDS THAT GIVE THE OPTIMISTS AN EDGE.

BY JOYDEEP MUKHERJI

t has become something of a truism that India’s economic reform program is the key to the Indo-U.S. relationship. Accordingly, to the extent that India emerges as a magnet for profitable investment and mutual trade across a range of products and industries, U.S. involvement with India wall necessarily quick¬ en and deepen. But because economic trends in India appear to support both optimism and pessimism, it is not easy to put the reform effort embarked upon in 1991 into perspective. Consider this: economic growth, as measured by the increase in gross domestic product, has been a steady

24 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O VIIN A L / O C T O B E R 2002 Focus

5 to 6 percent annually for the last State governments are much discretionary power is vest¬ two decades in India, impressive ed in bureaucrats and politicians, by global standards. India now establishing new began to absorb more and more makes and buys more cars than public resources, undermining China, the only other nation with economic reform policies the ability of the public sector to roughly comparable demograph¬ deliver health care, education and ics, and is increasingly making its designed to attract physical infrastructure like roads mark in high-technology indus¬ and electricity. tries. The Internet, for example, foreign investment. Decades of a low overall would be far less developed and growth rate and poor public less convenient to use without the spending held the growth of per contribution of Indian in software and capita income to less than 2 percent annually from telecommunications. At the same time, about one- 1950 to 1990 in India, less than half the level of the third of all Indians cannot read or write and an esti¬ developing world as a whole, including sub-Saharan mated 400 million of them earn less than a dollar a Africa. Many Asian countries abandoned controlled, day, the largest concentration of poverty in the world. inward-looking economic strategies during the 1970s Will economic reform help shrink the gap and 1980s in favor of export-led growth based on the between the two Indias and propel the country into private sector and market forces, rapidly surpassing the major leagues of world powers, and how fast can India in reducing poverty. India, however, clung to its it do so? To answer that question we must look at the old economic policies until its government nearly progress of several encouraging trends at work defaulted on its debt in 1991. At that point, India behind the data, so to speak, where economics and began to gradually liberalize its economy by cutting politics meet. trade barriers, removing restrictions on the private sector, lowering taxes, and seeking foreign invest¬ A Mixed Legacy ment. More recently, New Delhi began to privatize The persistence of mass poverty next to pockets of some of its government enterprises, including large rapid modernization is a product of India’s history. energy, mining and telecom companies. India gained political freedom in 1947, prior to other The legacy of India’s pre-1991 development strat¬ colonial countries, but its citizens and its private sec¬ egy was mixed. While the country failed to eradicate tor did not enjoy much economic liberty until barely mass poverty, it did achieve food self-sufficiency and a decade ago. In the first half of the 20th century, create the foundations of a modern economy, devel¬ when British-ruled India still suffered from periodic oping many pockets of excellence in education, tech¬ famines, India’s economy is estimated to have grown nology and industry. The education system may have by only 1 percent annually. The economic growth failed many, but since 1965 it has produced thou¬ rate rose to 3.5 percent annually during the 1950 to sands of well-trained graduates annually, whose num¬ 1975 period as independent India, in common with bers are impressive in absolute terms even if they are most developing countries, pursued an inward-look¬ a small share of India’s one billion people. Those ing development strategy based on high trade barri¬ investments began to pay off handsomely in the ers, a dominant public sector, and strict controls on 1990s as the economy was opened up to competition both domestic and foreign investment. With govern¬ and businesses were deregulated. ment officials deciding on the allocation of A decade of gradual economic reform has created resources, the result was poor investments and low a vibrant private sector and growing private wealth, economic growth. Corruption, inevitable when so both in cities and in the countryside. New centers of growth, such as information technology and other Joydeep Mukherji is a sovereign credit analyst with service sectors, blossomed in the new deregulated Standard and. Poor’s in New York. The views expressed economy. India’s middle class has grown to reach per¬ in this article are his own. haps 150 million today, a consumer market that is

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 25 Focus

several times larger than the total The boom in the service The same competitive pressures population of many countries, will encourage them to shift more spurring the growth of consumer sector has been better of their service work to lower-cost industries competing to cater to countries, helped by the Internet their needs. than had been expected and better telecommunications. India missed the earlier waves Encouraging Trends only a few years ago. of export-oriented foreign invest¬ The momentum for change ment in manufacturing that trans¬ will most likely continue in the coming years, thanks formed many East Asian countries, especially China, to several encouraging trends. First, India’s vibrant into a huge export platform for multinationals selling democracy has helped advance the reform program. to Western markets. (More than half of China’s Much as in America, the democratic system may at exports, for example, come from enterprises owned times limit the pace of change by forcing reformers fully or partially by foreigners.) India was closed to to painstakingly build coalitions across powerful foreign investment until recently, and its poor physi¬ interest groups and party lines to implement any new cal infrastructure even now deters many foreign measures. But at the same time, democracy, and the investors who can locate to other countries with bet¬ country’s federal system of strong state governments, ter power, roads, highways and ports. The service have successfully spread the impulse for reform sector, however, is not as badly affected by such infra¬ widely throughout India’s political arteries, making structure handicaps. the reform effort resilient and less vulnerable to India’s large base of skilled manpower (who speak reversals. English), its Western-style laws and institutions, and State governments are now playing a bigger role in easy telecommunication links with the outside world undertaking economic reform, including establishing allow it to enter the global economy in the footsteps new policies designed to attract foreign investment. of other successful Asian countries through building Competition between the states, long a common prac¬ a massive platform for exporting services. Indian and tice in America, is relatively new for India and the ini¬ foreign companies are quickly investing in a range of tial results are quite encouraging. The success of south¬ industries such as software, call offices, back office ern Indian states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and work, accounting, medical transcription, and Tamil Nadu in attracting investment in information research and development. technology has spurred politicians in other states to copy their practices. State politicians know that their Service-Sector Boom Shatters Stereotypes voters are acutely aware of developments in other The boom in the service sector has been better states, thanks to India’s active and largely pro-reform than had been expected only a few years ago. Exports media. In addition, a decade of growing prosperity has from IT services grew 30 percent in the year ending convinced much of India’s increasingly assertive middle March 31, 2002, to reach about $7.5 billion, despite a class to support deeper economic liberalization. downturn in the dominant U.S. market, and are pro¬ Second, India is uniquely well positioned to take jected to reach $9.6 billion this year. Earnings from advantage of the current globalization of the service back-office and other IT-enabled services are esti¬ sector, mainly because of its large pool of highly qual¬ mated to have grown over 70 percent in 2001, to ified human resources. As more of the economic out¬ about $1.5 billion. Such IT-related services now put of developed countries comes from the service employ 100,000 people; but employment may reach sector, more of the value of the products sold by 1.1 million by 2008, generating more than $16 billion major companies will consist of services embedded in in exports, according to industry enthusiasts. The them. Successful companies in the developed world total IT-services industry, including software, back- shifted much of their manufacturing work during the office and other IT-enabled services, is projected to last two decades to Asian countries other than India, export $50 billion by 2008. in order to cut costs and maintain competitiveness. The political impact of the new IT industries may

26 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O V RNAL/OCTO BER 2002 Focus

be even greater than the eco¬ The political impact of the response to the initial stimulus nomic impact, for they are of economic liberalization but shattering old stereotypes and new IT industries may be soon slumped back to the pre¬ creating new aspirations crisis growth rates of 5 percent among Indians. The IT indus¬ even greater than to 6 percent annually as the try has provided a visible chan¬ pace of the first wave of eco¬ nel for lower-middle class and the economic impact, nomic reform decelerated. As middle-class people to become in many other countries, the wealthy through sheer talent for they are shattering political will to undertake dif¬ and hard work, without resort¬ ficult reform measures weak¬ ing to corruption or relying on old stereotypes. ened as the sense of economic political or personal connec¬ crisis faded. The slow pace of tions to get ahead. The lesson economic reform keeps India is important in a country like India where many from growing as fast as its potential, in turn slowing decades of poor economic growth and heavy govern¬ the pace of poverty reduction. ment controls over business had created a perception In particular, India has, so far, found it easier to that wealth was usually attainable only through inher¬ nurture new companies in the private sector than to itance or through political shenanigans. The new IT address deep-seated problems in the public sector, millionaires, who are lionized by the Indian media including in government institutions and in govern¬ and courted by Indian politicians, are indirectly legit¬ ment-owned companies. For example, the combined imizing the capitalist pursuit of wealth through a budget deficits of India’s central and state govern¬ market economy. Foreign investment in IT elicits no ments reaches a very high 10 percent of GDP, and political opposition and is helping to slowly erode their growing public debt has risen to around 75 per¬ resistance to such investment in other sectors. cent of GDP. About half of every rupee of tax rev¬ To the momentum of current policies, and their enues going to the central government now goes to political implications, must be added demographic paying interest on the growing debt, leaving very lit¬ trends. In the coming years these will give a powerful tle money for building schools, hospitals, roads and impetus to the reform process, making India a more other urgently-needed infrastructure. open economy with growing trade and investment The failure of public institutions to provide ade¬ links with the outside world. Much of the country’s quate levels of such basic services makes it more dif¬ current leadership in politics and business was born ficult for many poor Indians to take advantage of the before independence while the bulk of the popula¬ opportunities opened up by a decade of economic tion is under 40 years of age. Generational change liberalization. Educated Indians can find lucrative will soon bring new leadership at all levels of govern¬ jobs in the export-oriented service sector but illiter¬ ment that is less beholden to outdated ideas and ate Indians cannot. The lack of roads in many rural more impatient to overcome India’s economic back¬ areas raises the cost of transportation, making it dif¬ wardness on the global stage. ficult for many farmers to sell their crops to the increasingly affluent urban market. The lack of reli¬ Tough Problems Remain able supplies of electricity prevents the development The economic changes during the last decade have of cold storage and other facilities that could been dramatic by Indian standards, reversing the increase farmers’ incomes by allowing them to mar¬ country’s isolation from the global economy and ket more of their perishable goods, spurring the steadily unshackling its private sector. However, they development of rural industry and generating off- did not put India on the very fast trajectory seen in farm employment. some East Asian countries during their peak years of India’s fiscal problems also constrain the growth economic growth. India’s GDP grew about 7.5 per¬ of the agricultural sector, which provides employ¬ cent annually for two years in the mid-1990s in ment for most people. Cash-strapped governments

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 27 Focus

have reduced public invest¬ Democracy does not ensure and prosperity, but are loath to ment in irrigation, an essential abandon some populist policies ingredient in raising agricultur¬ that government policies that continue to weaken the al productivity and farmers’ governments own finances. As incomes. Agricultural com¬ will maximize economic a result, the Indian economy modities are still subject to can be expected to continue laws that regulate their sale growth, but it does help growing steadily at a and movement, similar to those respectable rate, around 5 per¬ laws that restricted Indian avoid extremes. cent to 6 percent annually, over industry until a decade ago. the coming years. Based on The Indian government recently announced plans to current trends, the middle class may account for liberalize the agriculture sector, but progress is like¬ most of the population in several Indian states, espe¬ ly to be slow. cially in the west and south, within a decade from now. The gap between large pockets of poverty and Make Haste, Slowly the many enclaves of a modern dynamic economy In India, as in America, democracy does not will persist for some time, but the wealth is likely to ensure that government policies will maximize eco¬ become more and more widespread, thanks to con¬ nomic growth, but it does help avoid extremes. tinued economic reform. Indian policy-makers are shifting economic policies The optimists are likely to be proved right about slowly in the right direction for promoting growth India, but slowly. ■

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28 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN AL / O C T O B ER 2002 Focus ON INDIA

SEEKING THE MIDDLE GROUND: INDIAN POLITICS IN FLUX

'AFTER NEARLY 50 YEARS OF CONGRESS PARTY RULE, THE RISE OF COALITION GOVERNMENT AND A REINVIGORATED FEDERALISM ARE TRANSFORMING THE POLITICAL EQUATIONS IN INDIA.

BY WALTER ANDERSEN

atching a session of India’s parliament provides a snapshot of the incredible complexity of both Indian society and Indian politics. Seats in the visitors’ gallery are equipped with headsets that provide translations of the many languages being used on the floor of parliament. India recognizes 17 languages in its constitution, but there are over 30 languages that claim more than a million speakers, most of which belong to two very different linguistic groupings — Indo-European, spoken mainly in the north and center, and the Dravidian languages of the peninsular south. An inspection of the backgrounds of parliamentary members reveals the presence of representatives from across

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 29 Focus

die broad spectrum of Hinduism, as well as Muslims, toral nadir in 1999, widi its poorest parliamentary showing Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists and others. Moreover, since independence, it has regained some stature widi Hindus, though some 83 percent of India’s billion people, recent successes at die local level, and now controls 14 of are not a cohesive group; they are divided by caste, lan¬ die 28 state governments (though die biggest, most politi¬ guage, sect and region, as are other religious groups. cally decisive states are not among them). But the drive It is not therefore surprising that a coalition govern¬ and programmatic ideas necessary to rebuild support in ment made up of 24 partners governs this complex coun¬ die crucial Hindi heartland of north-central India seem try. Beginning widi the 1989 general elections, India’s lacking. ninth since its independence in 1947, no party has won a The Congress Party’s steady decline and fall from majority of die 543 elected seats to die national parlia¬ power and the rise of the BJP-led coalition government ment in New Delhi. All but one of the governments since at die national level prompted a host of dire predictions die 1989 elections have been coalitions. This is a big from commentators widiin and outside of India, most of change, however. For almost all of India’s first 50 years, them centered on die Hindu-nationalist character of die the Congress Party dominated die country’s politics. BJP. But although the BJP government has been criti¬ Though it never won a majority of die popular vote, cized for not taking a sufficiendy firm stand on die out¬ the Congress Party won a sufficiendy large plurality in breaks of violence against the non-Hindu minority, the India’s first-past-die-post constituencies against a divided transition from Congress Party rule to coalition govern¬ opposition to keep itself in power at die national level ments has, so far, been the harbinger of some surprising¬ from die first parliamentary elections in 1951 to die exit ly healthy developments in die body politic. First, the of the last Congress government in 1996, widi only two country’s federal system has been rejuvenated: a mean¬ short-lived interludes of coalition government in ingful decentralization of political and economic power to between. It was inextricably finked with the freedom the state and local level throughout die countiy is under struggle led by Mahatma Gandhi, who had transformed way. Second, a premium has been put on consensus¬ the pre-independence Indian National Congress into a building: commitment to a search for the ideological cen¬ mass organization widi a base in all parts of the countiy. ter has become die standard for any political party seri¬ Jawaharlal Nehru, Gandhi’s choice to lead the Congress, ously pursuing national power. The BJP-led govern¬ was die first prime minister of independent India and ment’s stability and staying power are a measure of its remained in office until Iris deadi in 1964; during diat grasp of diese new realities. long period he built up the groundwork for a state diat was democratic, socialist, secular and nonafigned. Coalition-Building Key Today large parts of diis legacy are being challenged, The BJP, die dominant group in die current coalition and die Congress Party has declined. Many of die party’s government, was for most of its existence the quintessen¬ supporters at the bottom of the socio-economic hierarchy tial outside party, seldom able to win more than 5 percent — increasingly desperate for progress on basic bread-and- of the popular vote in parliamentary elections. As late as butter issues, and feeling left out of die economic reform the 1984 parliamentary elections it won only two seats, plans — sought a better deal in new regional and caste par¬ before its electoral takeoff later in the decade. Jawaharlal ties, and die Bharatiya Janata Party, that rely heavily on Nehru had labeled the BJP’s predecessor party, die appeals to identity. Though die Congress Party hit an elec- Bharatiya Jana Sangh (founded in the early 1950s), a reli¬ gious, communal party widi no place in a country diat Walter Andersen is chief of the Office of Analysis for was secular and had just experienced a violent partition South Asia at the State Department and an adjunct prompted by appeals to religion. This stigma against die professor at the School of Advanced International Jana Sangh/BJP stuck for decades. But a combination of Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He is the co-author superb organizational work, die collapse of the Congress of The Brotherhood in Saffron: The Rashtriya Party in large parts of the countiy and a more sympa- Swayamsevak Sangh and Hindu Revivalism (Westview dietic view of Hindu nationalism enabled die BJP to Press, 1987). The views expressed here are those of the expand rapidly during the 1980s. author and not necessarily the Department of State. It emerged as the largest party in die 1999 elections

30 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN AL / O C T O B E R 2002 Focus

with 183 of 543 seats (the Congress India’s federal system has its Hindu-nationalist agenda — such Party won only 113 contests). The as the construction of a temple dedi¬ BJP had already replaced Congress been rejuvenated, and a cated to die Hindu god Ram on a site as the largest single party in the 1996 in Ayodhya also claimed by Muslims parliamentary elections, and polled premium has been put on — in the NDAs program; it accom¬ almost as many popular votes as its modated allies in key ministerial rival (about 25 percent each) in the consensus-building. posts; and it selected its most concil¬ 1999 elections. But as the party on iatory national figure, Atal Behari the outside, the Bp3 realized earlier Vajpayee, as the prime minister. than die Congress die necessity of building a coalition, and The NDA has proved resilient, despite its heteroge¬ it finally succeeded in the 1998 elections. The National neous nature. Most of its constituents were satisfied with Democratic Alliance that formed around the BJP was a the usually contentious seat-distribution process for the broad array of some two dozen parties united by their com¬ 1999 parliamentary elections; die initial Cabinet selec¬ mon desire to oust the Congress from power. The BJP’s tion process went smoothly and subsequent ministerial long-time leaders and colleagues, Atal Behari Vajpayee changes, including tire most recent hr July 2002, have not (prime minister) and Lai Krishna Advani (the deputy triggered revolts. The coalition has also survived such prime minister and home minister), astutely made com¬ batterings as tire violent Hindu-Muslim rioting in Gujarat promises necessary to bring die various parties together in early 2002. Gujarat’s state government, controlled by under the NDA banner. Most significantiy, the BJP lead¬ the BJP, was widely blamed for not protecting Muslim ership did not insist on including controversial elements of victims. Some NDA regional parties were very critical of

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tlie national BJP leadership for refus¬ As the party on the argue that the party had expanded ing to replace the states BJP chief rapidly in tlie early 1990s because it minister afterwards, but only one outside, the BJP realized emphasized its Hindu nationalism small constituent group abandoned agenda — especially the demand die coalition at the time of an unsuc¬ earlier than the Congress that a Hindu temple dedicated to cessful censure vote against the NDA tlie god Ram, one of tlie major in parliament (though some coalition the necessity of bu ilding deities of Hinduism, be constructed partners abstained from the vote). in the town of Ayodhya at a site This incident put considerable strain a coalition. widely believed by Hindus to be the on an alliance containing several precise place where Ram took regional parties that rely heavily on Muslim votes. human form. This issue, which had an emotional appeal The fear of a Congress Party revival keeps the coali¬ that transcended caste and linguistic boundaries, was tion together in the face of these challenges. Several of used by the B JP to counter the efforts of other parties the larger regional parties in the NDA face the Congress that were mobilizing support based on appeals to caste as their chief local rival and do not want early elections at and language loyalties. a time when the coalition might be in a vulnerable posi¬ The problem, however, is that the Ayodhya site was tion. Moreover, some regional parties face a strong chal¬ also occupied by tlie Babri Masjid, a Muslim shrine con¬ lenge from the Congress Party in state assembly elections structed by a Mughal general hi the early 16th century in late 2002 and early 2003, and do not want to go into and named after the first Mughal emperor, Babar. Many those elections alienated from the central government in Hindus believe that a Ram temple was destroyed to make New Delhi. Unless the BJP totally abandons tire concil¬ way for tlie Babri Masjid, and periodic efforts have been iatory approach it adopted when the NDA was formed, made over tlie past century to take control of tlie site. For including a formally neutral stance on the Ayodhya tem¬ some Hindus, the presence of a Muslim shrine was a ple issue, the NDA coalition is likely to survive its full humiliating reminder of the country’s conquest by people five-year term, which ends in late 2004. of Islamic faith. In 1992, destruction of the Babri Masjid by a mob unleashed Hindu-Muslim rioting. In February Holding the Center 2002, communal rioting broke out in Gujarat after a train The BJP’s move to the ideological center at the time carrying Hindu pilgrims back from Ayodhya was torched. tlie NDA took shape aroused considerable criticism with¬ Most of tlie subsequent thousand-plus fatalities in Gujarat in the ranks of the party as well as from loosely affiliated were Muslim. groups that are collectively referred to as the “Sangh The question of possession of the disputed site is now Parivar,” a “family” of organizations around tlie Rashtriya before the High Court of Uttar Pradesh, which has ruled Swayamsevak Sangh. The RSS defines itself as a cultural that no construction activity is permitted while tlie issue organization that trains men and boys, almost all of them is under judicial review. The Vajpayee government head¬ Hindu, to be on tlie cutting edge of social and political ed off a confrontation with Hindu activists in March 2002 change. Its major objective is to create an enhanced sense by putting pressure on the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, tlie of social solidarity and nationalism among Indians. Both organization leading the campaign to construct a Ram Vajpayee and Home Minister Advani were once full-time temple, to cancel an illegal consecration ceremony at the workers in die RSS and retain close links to its leadership. site. At tlie same time, several hundred Hindu activists Criticism of the BJP’s ideologically centrist approach were rounded up and violence was avoided. But tlie was brought out into the open by the party’s poor perfor¬ VHP’s repeated statements questioning the court’s mance in the February 2002 local elections in four states, authority and promising to continue their struggle make including the loss of its majority in India’s mega-state of it clear that the issue is not resolved. Uttar Pradesh (with over 150 million people). Charges that the Vajpayee government’s efforts to placate its allies Looking to 2004 resulted in a demoralization of the party’s Hindu nation¬ The BJP’s electoral setbacks in early 2002 have alist cadre came from the party’s right. These critics strengthened the position of those in the party

32 FOREIGN SERVICE J O URN Ah! O CT O BER 2002 Focus

demanding a more Hindu-oriented Another significant emerge with fewer seats than in agenda. This was evident at the 1999. The party will almost certain¬ party’s April 12 conclave in Goa, BJP difference with ly need the support of coalition part¬ where the delegates refused to sanc¬ ners to form the next government tion the dismissal of the controversial the RSS is its approach and most of those prospective part¬ Gujarat state chief minister, ners are strongly committed to secu¬ Narendra Modi, despite die demand to the current larism, as it is interpreted in India: of some NDA coalition partners that no official favoritism toward any he be replaced. The party’s executive Indo-Pakistani crisis. particular religion and refusal to also rejected Modi’s offer to resign. accept religious categories as a legit¬ Vajpayee reflected the conference’s mood in an angry imate basis for political action. speech in which he said, “No one should challenge us about Indian secularism and no one should teach us BJP vs. RSS about tolerance. We were secular even in the early In rejecting the demand of the RSS that the parts of days when Muslims and Christians were not here.” Kashmir with Buddhist and Hindu majorities (Ladakh The June 2002 appointment of Vinay Katiyar, a BJP and Jammu, respectively) be separated from the rest of politician who is from a historically disadvantaged caste the state, Advani upheld an essential element of Indian and is closely associated with the agitation for a Ram secularism: namely, that religion cannot be used as a temple, as the president of the Uttar Pradesh state criterion for political action. The RSS proposal flies in party organization suggests that the BJP may use a the face of the Indian political mainstream’s aversion to Hindu agenda to broaden its support base in this key the two-nation theory (one Muslim, and the other state once again. Hindu) that India’s founding fathers rejected. (That The Cabinet reshuffle in July 2002, also clearly theory, adamantly held by the Muslim League and aimed at important local elections late this year and given the nod by Britain, had led to the disastrous par¬ the parliamentary elections in 2004, was apparently tition of the country.) It would also violate the notion directed toward revitalizing the party’s Hindu-oriented of India as a multicultural country. Though the RSS base. Advani, associated more closely with the Hindu and BJP have differed on this and other significant agenda than Vajpayee, was named the deputy prime issues, neither organization is likely to abandon the minister, and a close associate of Advani was appointed other anytime soon. The BJP needs the active support party president. These decisions confirmed Advani’s of the cadre from the RSS and its affiliated organiza¬ status as eventual heir to Vajpayee, and may have sig¬ tions during election campaigns. And for the RSS, the naled the BJP’s intention to take a more active role in BJP is the political party that best represents its views advancing the party’s traditional Hindu agenda. in die political arena. Advani’s elevation, however, does not threaten Another significant BJP difference with the RSS is Vajpayee’s position. The two men have worked closely its approach to the current Indo-Pakistani crisis, together in politics for five decades and view them¬ sparked by the Dec. 13, 2001, attack on India’s parlia¬ selves as a compatible team that has guided the party to ment by masked gunmen. The RSS called for immedi¬ the center of power. Advani deferred to Vajpayee in ate aggressive action against Pakistan, charging that it 1996 so that Vajpayee could become prime minister supports cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and within and has loyally stood by his side since then. India itself. Vajpayee, though reacting to the attack on Nonetheless, the BJP walks a fine line between parliament by implementing a policy of coercive diplo¬ reviving Hindu activism and retaining the backing of macy toward Pakistan, has demonstrated patience in its coalition partners. The party leadership clearly giving international diplomacy a chance to stop this wants to enthuse the activists but they also must deal cross-border movement. In May 2002 the parliament with the reality that the BJP is unlikely to win a major¬ unanimously affirmed its backing for whatever steps ity on its own in the next parliamentary elections. the Vajpayee government takes to stop cross-border Recent midterm elections suggest that it might even terrorist activity. This political unanimity makes it dif-

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 33 Focus

ficult for any single party to take credit for defending a high economic growth rate, a more effective voice in the country from terrorism. The crisis, moreover, did international economic decision-making, and an not play a role in the early 2002 state elections, which enhanced international standing generally. This govern¬ revolved around local political issues. ment, like its immediate predecessors, however, is reluc¬ The BJP also differs from the RSS in its approach to tant to make the politically tough decisions to encourage economic reform. The RSS, whose support is historical¬ substantially greater foreign (and domestic) investment, ly rooted in the north Indian urban trading class, is not such as privatizing the current inefficient system of elec¬ opposed to domestic reforms but is against efforts to trical power distribution and reforming labor legislation make India a more active player in the global market diat gives die government highly intrusive powers. place. Before coming to power in 1999, dre BJP itself Coalition governments and economic reforms have criticized die move away from economic self-sufficiency, cumulatively worked to decentralize political and eco¬ but changed its stance when it assumed power. Rejecting nomic power. States in India’s federal system command the opposition of the RSS and the right wing of his own more economic and political power than they did dur¬ party, Vajpayee successfully pushed for such controversial ing the long years of the Congress Party dispensation. proposals as opening the Indian market to foreign direct How this revitalized federal system will affect party investment in insurance and the print media. The prime politics is not yet certain. minister and his key economic advisers apparently What is certain is that coalition politics will contin¬ believe that a more active involvement in die world econ¬ ue for some time, forcing any serious aspirant for omy offers India significant advantages: access to high political power in New Delhi to avoid ideological technology and investment believed necessary to sustain extremes. ■

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34 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2 0 02 Focus ON INDIA

INSIDE THE INDIAN FOREIGN SERVICE

AMONG DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, THE INDIAN FOREIGN SERVICE IS ONE OF THE OLDER AND BETTER-ORGANIZED DIPLOMATIC SERVICES. AN INSIDER DISCUSSES THE IFS’S ORIGINS AND CURRENT CONTOURS.

BY KISH AN S. RAN A

mong the countries of the developing world, India has one of the older and better-organized diplomatic services. Part heir to the ‘Political Service’ of the renowned colonial Indian Civil Service, the Indian Foreign Service was established in 1948, a year after independence. From the outset the IFS was imbued with a sense of uniqueness and relative isolation from the rest of the central government, due primarily to the circumstances of its cre¬ ation as virtually a personal project of India’s first prime minister, the urbane and worldly national movement leader Jawaharlal Nehru.

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 35 Focus

In 1946, on the eve of independence, Jawaharlal minister’s prerogative, with the Foreign Secretary acting Nehru articulated India’s commitment to approach the as his adviser. The exchange reflected Nehru’s passion for world with “clear and friendly eyes” and spoke of the philosophical debate and his speed of thought, but also a newly liberated country’s right to choose an external pol¬ certain disinclination for hard decisions. icy drat reflected its independence and was not a pawn in The fact diat for the first 30 years new entrants had to die hands of odiers — the basic policy of nonalignment. rank among die top 20 to 40 individuals in die Union Nehru functioned as his own foreign minister for his Public Sendee Commission annual combined Civil entire prime ministership, from 1947 until his death in Services examination merit list, out of die 20,000 to 1964. It was Nehru who set up the Indian Foreign 40,000 who sat for the exam (which was the only entry Service and, witir his towering personality and penchant route into the high civil services, including the sister ser¬ for micro-management, stamped it indelibly with his vice, the Indian Administrative Service), reinforced the style as well as his worldview. For nearly two decades, sense of elitism. both the IFS and the Ministry of External Affairs basked In recent years career opportunities in India have in Nehru’s reflected glory. gready expanded. Yet die civil service, and the IFS in It is not our purpose to discuss tire Nehruvian foreign particular, continue to attract top talent. What are the policy legacy, but some instances of his passion for detail contours of tiiis diplomatic service today? What are its help shed light on facets of the Indian Foreign Service. It strengths and weaknesses? was not unusual, for example, for Nehru to write replies to incoming cipher telegrams from ambassadors, which The IFS Today were then sent out in the name of heads of territorial divi¬ Structure. The first tiling to note about the Indian sions, or even tiieir deputies. In die veiy readable mem¬ Foreign Service is that it is exceptionally small in size, by oirs written by Badr-ud-din Tyabji, former ambassador comparison with not just India’s needs but also the func¬ and secretary in the MEA, Memoirs of an Egoist (Roli tions performed. To operate some 115 embassies and Books, 1988), dris has been described as the syndrome of permanent missions and 40-odd consulates abroad, plus die time: “leave it to Panditji” — pushing up all decisions man die MEA, there are only some 750 officials of the to Nehru, however minor. rank of desk-officers and above (i.e., tiiird secretaries and Working on the staff of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi higher). By comparison die “tail” is much longer, consist¬ in 1981-82,1 came upon a set of long notes exchanged in ing of about 2,800 non-diplomatic support personnel, die mid-1950s between Nehru and the Civil Service head according to the MEA Annual Report published each of MEA, called the Foreign Secretary in Indian termi¬ March. nology. Nehru sent him a four-page note describing die MEA simply does not have the personnel it needs for criteria diat should be applied to the selection of ambas¬ vital tasks, and die number of missions abroad is too sadors. The Foreign Secretary sent a two-page rejoinder large. Ideally, looking to the experience of otiier major die same day, gendy pointing to the practical difficulties services, die ratio of officers at headquarters to missions in finding ideal choices, to which Nehru sent a further should be around l-to-1.5 or -2: in India it is l-to-4. The long response the next day. No decision was taken, die IFS cadre needs urgent expansion to at least 1,000, and more so as selection of envoys was principally the prime with it a pruning of support staff, via upgrading many to function as junior desk officials. With this must come also Kishan S. Rana joined the Indian Foreign Service in a reduction in the number of missions and posts. But as 1960 and served in Hong Kong, Beijing (twice) and long as assignments abroad are seen as an essential Geneva. He specialized in Chinese affairs and, later, “right,” vested interests block diese cutbacks. economic diplomacy. He was ambassador to Algeria, The results are plain to see. Public diplomacy, for Czechoslovakia, Kenya, Mauritius and Germany, retir¬ example, is in its infancy in India, not because its meth¬ ing in 1995. He is Professor Emeritus at the Foreign ods are not understood, but because the structure for Service Institute in New Delhi, and the author of Inside handling this work does not exist. Today, the official head¬ Diplomacy (Manas Publications, 2000) and Bilateral ing die external publicity division is die MEA spokesper¬ Diplomacy (DiploProjects, 2002). son; tiiis same person heads the entire publicity and

36 FOREIGN SERVICE J O URN AL/O C T O B E R 2002 Focus

information apparatus, and handles From the outset the IFS entrants spend three months some aspects of public diplomacy as attending a common foundation well, as there is no dedicated unit for was imbued with a seme course with all other entrants to the this purpose. civil services for that year at the Further, although all but one of of uniqueness and relative National Academy of Adminis¬ the foreign ministries of the 19 tration, located in the Himalayan countries of the E.U. and the G-8 isolation from the rest of hill-resort town of Mussourie, and have carried out structural changes then come to the Institute for a year. since 1990 to cope with changes in the central government. Their program encompasses lec¬ the post-Cold War world (according tures, workshops and visits to many to a comparative study by the Italian partner agencies, including forma¬ Foreign Ministry), ME A has so far limited itself to adding tions of die army, navy and air force. It also calls for about a new territorial division to handle relations with the five months of travel to different locations in the country strategically important Central Asian countries. Deeper to see die challenges of economic and social develop¬ structural change has yet to materialize, diough some ment, as well as two separate tours to neighboring coun¬ reforms are under consideration. tries. Concerning languages, new recruits undergo train¬ There has always been an abundance of ideas — the ing in the assigned foreign language at the first station of problem is with action! The initiative of External Affairs assignment, and are confirmed in service after passing Minister Jaswant Singh to re-examine the Services struc¬ the language test. tures, set into motion at tire end of 2000, was moving What the IFS misses, however, is mid-career training slowly toward concrete action until he and Finance — the Institute does nothing at all at diis level, nor for Minister Yashwant Sinlia swapped jobs in July, and it is senior officials. MEA is simply not able to spare anyone. now unclear if the planned actions will be implemented. Recruitment and personnel management. The These included creation of a Foreign Service inspec¬ examination system for selection of civil servants, admin¬ torate (vital to undertake periodic inspection of all mis¬ istered by the Union Public Service Commission, now sions, ensure uniformity of standards, and help to has some 300,000 applicants annually competing for enhance dieir performance) and placement of IFS offi¬ about 300 to 400 jobs in all tire “central services” — the cials widiin die administration of some states to help in other services are the Administrative Service, the their international contacts. There are also plans to Customs, Audit and Accounts, and die Police Service. expand the strengdi of die cadre, though not to die level The written exam is at two levels, with only about 20,000 needed; diat would require a major decision of die gov¬ who at the first stage (the serious candidates) ernment, especially to link die expansion widi cuts in die appearing for the second exam. Widiin a couple of support staff. months after the results announcement, all Civil Service Still, there is some expectation that the Jaswant Singh entrants join the “foundation course” at Mussourie men¬ initiative may yet lead to some real improvements; die tioned earlier, and diereafter separate to attend training new minister has not revealed his thinking as yet. The at dieir own services. recent reform proposals echo suggestions contained in The IFS takes an average of around 10 new entrants the Pillai Committee Report of 1966, die only public doc¬ each year, diough in 2001 the number was stepped up to ument on die IFS and its reform. But the exercise that 18. A notable feature of recent years is the progressive Jaswant Singh launched was different in one important widening of the intake — in terms of the regions and respect — it was the first effort that originated at die min¬ groups represented, the educational background and the isterial level, and from within MEA. presence of rural candidates. Around 20 percent of new Training. Training for new entrants has improved recruits are women. dramatically in die past 15 years, widi the establishment British colonial administrators borrowed the con¬ of the Foreign Service Institute in 1986 in New Delhi cept of a single open examination for the Civil Services (set to move to its new campus in a year or so), and with from China: It has provided India with a stable, unified a continuous improvement in training content. New administrative structure, which has its faults — princi-

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 37 Focus

pally that it has become a vehicle for corruption, and a A Learning Curve victim of political pressures, and the two are inter¬ Like many other diplomatic services, the MEA is still twined — but no one has come up with a remotely on a learning curve when it comes to coping with the new comparable or viable method of selection for new domestic players in diplomacy. Today as it shifts from the entrants into the Service. classic gatekeeper role in external affairs to that of tire Human resource management is the key issue for all privileged coordinator, every foreign ministry has to han¬ organizations, the more so for diplomatic services that dle three broad clusters of players — tire official agencies mainly deal in intangibles. Throughout the Indian admin¬ beyond the foreign ministry, the non-state agents (cham¬ istration promotion by seniority is the norm; tire only bers of commerce, academic institutions, think tanks, obstacle to promotion is outstanding incompetence. Since NGOs and the like), and the ordinary citizens who too are 1950 the constitutionally-mandated affirmative action pol¬ involved players in virtually every country. (The best icy of reserving 22.5 percent of government service jobs definition of these new roles is provided in the opening for individuals from Scheduled Castes and Scheduled essay by Brian Hocking in tire book he has edited, Tribes has been in effect. Now some even demand that Foreign Ministries: Change & Adaptation [Macmillan, this policy ought to apply also to promotions. 1999].) Against this background, maintaining the traditional All government agencies are autonomous actors in the systems of rotation among “hard” and “soft” posts and foreign arena. They will accept the foreign ministry as a motivating individuals to perform their best are chal¬ coordinator only if they perceive this brings value to their lenges. Many of us lament that the system does not work interests and concerns. It is entirely possible for the optimally, but we should be thankful that it works at all. Indian foreign ministry to do this, but to win credibility it

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38 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 AFSANEWS American Foreign Service Association • October 2002

EYE ON REFORM Renewing Esprit de Corps AFSA’S Foreign Service Reform The latest effort seeks not so much to NEWS BRIEFS: Initiative has already served as a cat¬ change the personnel system, but to FAMILY-FRIENDLY JOBS? 2 alyst for the adoption of a number breathe new life into the concept of esprit CONGRESS & THE FOREIGN SERVICE 3 of significant personnel reforms over the de corps in the Service. AFSA believes it is past year. These reforms have covered a time to renew Foreign Service morale, and LETS PLAN FOR PROMOTIONS 5 number of key areas, including: making has proposed that the director general send LEGISLATIVE UPDATE 6 the Foreign Service Core Precepts less risk- a letter to all new Foreign Service employ¬ WHY WOULD I GO THERE? 7 averse, adopting a leadership and man¬ ees outlining the rewards and challenges of Q&A: HEALTH BENEFITS 8 agement training requirement, and a Foreign Service career. The goal of the Q&A: PERSONAL FINANCES 9 expanding promotion opportunities for letter would be to enhance the sense of pro- Foreign Service specialists. Continued on page 6

PREMIERE OF “AMBASSADOR: UNDER FIRE OVERSEAS” AFSA Works with National Geographic on TV Special ■ BY TOM SWITZER, DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS National Geographic held promotional screenings of its new TV special, “Ambassador. Under Fire Overseas,” at the State Department Aug. 21 and 22. Attendees includ¬ ed some 400 department personnel, AFSA President John Naland, AFSA Governing Board Treasurer Amb. Thomas Boyatt, and several AFSA staffers. Producer Robin Goldman warmly thanked AFSA for its substantial advice and support over the past year. This superb documentary premiered nationally Sept. 4 on PBS. Continued on page 3

AFSA SUPPORT FOR COLEAD Promoting U.S. Engagement Abroad ■ BY SHAWN DORMAN AFSA FINANCIAL AID SCHOLARSHIPS AFSA members may not realize that organizations, including AFSA, that make a unique and growing coalition of up COLEAD. The main purpose of the AFSA Eases foreign affairs organizations is head¬ coalition is to foster “engagement in world quartered at AFSA and works closely with affairs and the strengthening of American College Costs for 70 AFSA on efforts to support U.S. engage¬ diplomacy,” says COLEAD president and ment abroad. The Coalition for American former FSO Harry Blaney III. Students in 2002 Leadership Abroad (COLEAD) is a broad- AFSA was largely responsible for the In addition to the Academic and Art based non-profit organization dedicated to creation of COLEAD in 1995, and was one Merit Scholarship Program for high furthering well-informed public debate of the eight founding members of the coali¬ school seniors (covered in the July AFSA about international issues affecting U.S. tion. At that time, AFSA leadership was News), AFSA sponsors need-based renew¬ interests and supporting adequate resources focusing on the debate about American able financial aid scholarships every year for for foreign affairs. There are currently 44 Continued on page 10 Continued on page 9 annual Open Assignments message. That 2003 assignments cycle AFSA Efforts to Make Family- guidance now says: Friendly State Jobs a Reality “Overseas posts and domestic offices are authorized to allow When asked to name the single most important thing that the employees to work on alternative work schedules (3FAH-1 State Department could do to retain its employees, respondents to H2331). Another family-friendly option is job sharing. Bidders the State Department’s March 2002 employee satisfaction survey interested in job sharing need to identify another person interested put “permit greater flexibility in work hours, job share, telecom¬ in taking a half-time job and then contact the bureau to determine muting, and other family-friendly issues” just behind “pay me if there are openings for which a job share is appropriate. Part more” in terms of importance. Responding to this, AFSA under¬ time opportunities may also occasionally be available as an alterna¬ took three actions based on our belief that employees could benefit tive to leave without pay, if there is no ability to fill a position full from more information on the opportunities available for family- time. Bidders should contact individual bureaus and posts to friendly assignments and how to take advantage of them. determine if any of these plans are, or could be, offered.” First, AFSA convinced the State Department to include — for Second, to assist employees in identifying bureaus that have the first time — information on alternative work schedules in the adopted family-friendly work schedules, AFSA obtained from State a list of bureaus utilizing flexible work schedules and/or com¬ pressed work schedules. Unfortunately, the list is not broken Reminder: down by Foreign Service/Civil Service employees or by positions, AFSA Governing Board Election but it may still give employees some sense of which bureaus are Nov. 14 is the deadline for nominations of candidates to run for most open to flexible-hours programs. We have posted it for ref¬ the AFSA 2003-2005 Governing Board. See the call for nominations erence at wrvw.afsa.org/news/family .html. in the September AFSA News or contact Susan Reardon by phone: Finally, AFSA now announces the creation of a discussion forum (202) 944-5505 or e-mail: [email protected] for more information. on the AFSA Web site where bidding employees can exchange To all AFSA members: Please make sure AFSA has your correct information on flexible work schedules or seek out other bidders mailing address so that we can send you an election ballot All for job shares. That forum is in the members-only section of our address changes must be in by Dec. 1. You can change your Web site at www.afsa.org/secure/corridors/ which can only be address by using the card in this issue, sending an e-mail to mem- logged into by AFSA members whose names and e-mail addresses [email protected], or making changes directly on the AFSA Web site at are in our database (if you cannot log in, please e-mail www.afea.org/directory.cfm. [email protected] to update your e-mail address in our records or, if needed, to join AFSA). Once on the site, dick on the discussion forum entitled “State Career Comer.” You can also access this site da a link at www.atsa.org/news/family.html.

AFSA News Briefs • Continued on page 4

AFSA HEADQUARTERS: Staff Governing Board: Executive Director Susan Reardon: [email protected] (202) 338-4045; Fax: (202) 338-6820 PRESIDENT: John K. Naland Business Department STATE DEPARTMENT AFSA OFFICE: STATE VICE PRESIDENT: Louise K. Crane S Controller Kalpna Srimal: [email protected] (202) 647-8160; Fax: (202) 647-0265 Accounting Assistant Christa Nyamekye: [email protected] USAID VICE PRESIDENT: Joe Pastic USAID AFSA OFFICE: U Labor Management FCS VICE PRESIDENT: Peter G. Frederick (202) 712-1941; Fax: (202) 216-3710 General Counsel Sharon Papp: [email protected] FAS VICE PRESIDENT: Edwin Porter 4-4 Labor Management Attorney Zlatana Bad rich: [email protected] AFSA Internet and E-mail addresses: Labor Management Specialist James Yorke: [email protected] RETIREE VICE PRESIDENT: Robert W. Farrand AFSA WEB SITE: www.afsa.org R USAID Labor Management Specialist Douglas Broome: [email protected] SECRETARY: FA ‘Tex” Harris AFSA E-MAIL: [email protected] USAID Office Manager Suzan Reagen [email protected] AFSA NEWS: [email protected] Grievance Attorneys Harry Sizer [email protected], and Neera Parikh: [email protected] TREASURER: Thomas D. Boyatt FSJ: [email protected] Office Manager Christine Warren: [email protected] STATE REPRESENTATIVES: John P. Boulanger, PRESIDENT: [email protected] a Member Services STATE VP: [email protected] George W. Colvin, Roy Perrin, Lynn G. Sever Director Janet Hedridc [email protected] RETIREE VP: [email protected] Representative Lindsay Peyton: [email protected] USAID REPRESENTATIVE: Woody Navin a USAID VP: [email protected] Administrative Assistant Ana Lopez: [email protected] FCS REPRESENTATIVE: James Joy FAS VP: [email protected] FCS VP: [email protected] Outreach Programs RETIREE REPRESENTATIVES: Retiree Liaison Ward Thompson: [email protected] William C Harrop, David E. Reuther, AFSA News Director of Communications Thomas Switzer: [email protected] Congressional Affairs Director Ken Nakamura: [email protected] Editor Shawn Dorman: [email protected] Richard C Scissors, Theodore S. Wilkinson, III Corporate Relations/Executive Assistant Marc Goldberg: [email protected] (202) 3384045 x 503: Fax: (202) 3388244 IBB REPRESENTATIVE: Vacant Scholarship Director Lori Dec: [email protected] On the Web: www.afea.org/news Professional Issues Coordinator Barbara Berger [email protected] FAS REPRESENTATIVE: Eric Wenberg

2 AFSA NEWS • OCTOBER 2002 National Geographic • Continued from page 1 STATE ■ BY LOUISE CRANE In a candid look inside embassies around the world, this program reveals Congress and the Foreign Service the uniquely demanding — and some¬ times dangerous — challenges facing Sometimes I think Rodney Dangerfield’s “I don’t get no America’s ambassadors. More than a respect,” sums up the feelings of many Foreign Service dozen U.S. diplomats are interviewed, as employees about Congress. It resonated with me dur¬ well as Secretary of State Colin Powell. ing the July debate on whether or not the visa functions should Four ambassadors in different regions be removed from the Bureau of Consular Affairs and moved grant intimate access to their daily lives, into the Department of Homeland Security. Some mem¬ revealing what diplomacy means to bers of Congress made unflattering and unfounded remarks them personally, and how their lives and about the lack of dedication in the ranks of the Foreign Service families are affected by the realities of when it comes to issuing visas. The gist of the argument was their chosen career. that all Foreign Service officers are wannabe ambassadors who see working the visa Amb. Pmdence Bushnell, featured as line as something to be gotten over with as quickly as possible. These comments were the U.S. ambassador to Guatemala, is then echoed on the op-ed pages by several so-called “experts” on the Foreign Service. used to difficult situations. She was pre¬ Since those debates, I have been wrestling with the question of how we can get viously ambassador to Kenya, and sur¬ some respect from Congress for the Foreign Service. One way is to get some “face vived the 1998 bombing of Embassy time” with members of Congress when they are on official travel overseas. Visits Nairobi. “I’ve come to realize that ter¬ by congressional delegations help broaden rorist acts are a part of modem life and Congress’ outlook on foreign affairs. In addi¬ part of being an ambassador is never let¬ tion, they can offer an opportunity for ting your guard down,” she said. Foreign Service personnel to inform I continue to wrestle This is something that Amb. Wendy Congress about issues unique to government Chamberlin also realized as she arrived employees working abroad. The next time with the question of how at her new post in Islamabad, Pakistan, a codel is scheduled to come to your post, to get more respect from just one month before the Sept 11 attacks try to get a session with the “troops” on the last year. Chamberlin shares details of her notional schedule. If the schedule’s too full, the Congress for the historic meeting with Pakistani President try enlisting someone at post to speak with Foreign Service. Pervez Musharraf in which he sided with the delegation on behalf of the Service to the U.S. in the war on terrorism. But raise issues of concern such as locality pay when Chamberlin’s two teenage daugh¬ and spousal employment. ters were forced to return to the United The attention Congress has been paying to States for security reasons on a second the consular function warrants our increased efforts to call to their attention the work evacuation, she faced a wrenching deci¬ we do on behalf of American citizens every day around the world. If you are espe¬ sion: her post or her family. She decid¬ cially proud of your efforts to help a stranded citizen, let me know. AFSA will be happy ed to leave her assignment early. to inform the appropriate representative or senator of how the Foreign Service helped

Continued on page 8 his or her constituent. At the same time, you receive a lot of congressional correspondence, many ask¬ ing about visa cases. One refrain I heard many times in July: “Who are they to criti¬ BOOKFAIR 2002 cize how we issue visas? They’re the ones who always criticize us for denying visas, The Associates of the American asking us to overturn denials and make exceptions for their constituents.” Foreign Service Worldwide invites you to But these congressional inquiries are one way that citizens can get the attention visit the 42nd annual BOOKFAIR. BOOK- of the bureaucracy. There are fewer and fewer live voices at the end of our telephone FAIR will be held in the Exhibit Hall of the calls to the government Government at all levels has grown increasingly faceless, which State Department from Oct 18-27. Open is where Congress comes in. Citizens write to their representative to protest some act to employees, retirees (with retiree pass¬ of the bureaucracy or to grab the bureaucracy’s attention. es) and spouses, and escorted guests Oct AFSA works the Hill for you. We write letters and brief Hill staffers. You can 18 from 2-5 p.m. and Oct. 21-25 from contribute, too. Write a letter to your congressional representative (remember not 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Open to the public the to use government time, equipment or supplies) or encourage your family to write weekends of Oct. 19-20 and Oct 26-27 from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Questions: call on your behalf. I was impressed with a recent letter the parents of a junior officer (202) 223-5796 or (202) 362-6514. on a consular hardship tour wrote to a particularly acerbic congressional critic. This letter, and others like it, can help. □

OCTOBER 2002 • AFSA NEWS 3 DACOR Conference on India Diplomats and Consular Officers, Retired (DACOR) is hosting a conference “India: 21st Century Superpower?” on Oct. 11 at the Worid Continued from page 2 AFSA President to Bank Auditorium in Washington, D.C. For AFSA Seeks Rost Reps more information, contact DACOR at (202) Call on Foreign Service 682-0500. As the transfer season draws to a close and you settle into your new job, consider volun¬ Retirees in Florida teering to be your post’s AFSA representative. AFSA President John Naland plans to Record Interest in AFSA reps can help protect the interests of meet with members of the Foreign Service Foreign Service Careers Foreign Service employees overseas, and serve Retirees Association of Florida during their as a vital link between AFSA and AFSA mem¬ A record 33,497 people signed up to annual meeting on Nov. 9 in Mt. Dora, Fla. bers overseas. Post reps can be instrumental take the Sept 21 Foreign Service written in solving quality-of-life issues at post, and The FSRA of Florida has about 850 mem¬ exam. This is about 10,000 more than AFSA headquarters stands ready to be of assis¬ bers and is the largest FSRA in the coun¬ tance. signed up last year, and 21,000 more try. Read more about the FSRA of Florida For details about becoming an AFSA rep, go than the year before. Minority registrants in the letter to the editor from the group’s to www.afsa.org/postreps/index.html or con¬ reached an all-time high at 40 percent of tact the AFSA membership office by e-mail: chair, retired FS0 Irwin Rubenstein, in this [email protected] or phone: (202) 338-4045, issue of the Journal. the Sept. 2002 registrants. ext 525.

USAA for Specialists Donate to FSYF through the CFC AFSA reminds Foreign Service specialists This year, you can donate to the Foreign Service Youth Foundation through that the USAA Insurance Company has the Combined Federal Campaign. FSYF’s designation number is 8488. agreed to open up its membership to them Employees may give as a payroll deduction or make a one-time contribution. during the fourth quarter of this year. That The FSYF appreciates each donation. For more information about the FSYF, go decision was made in response to a request to www.fsyf.org or call (301) 404-6655. Secretary Powell made to USAA earlier this year at AFSA’s suggestion. State’s Bureau of Human Resources is coordinating with USAA and, once the details are set, HR will Open Enrollment for Long-Term Care Insurance send out a message informing specialists how The open enrollment period for the Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program to contact USAA. runs through Dec. 31. The decision about whether to enroll is a complicated one and We have had inquiries from retired special¬ ists asking whether they can join USAA. depends on your individual needs. AFSA urges members who decide to enroll to Unfortunately, the answer is no. Under research the options offered through the federal government program and look at USAA’s rules, only active service personnel other options as well to find the best program and price. There are resources available can become members. This means that retirees — former enlisted military, FSOs and that can help in the process. Foreign Service specialists — cannot join if The Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program is administered by Long Term they have not previously been members. Care Partners, LLC, a joint venture company between John Hancock Life Insurance However, once you have joined, you can Company and MetLife, the country’s largest carriers of group long-term care insur¬ remain a member after you retire. ance. Welcome to During the open enrollment period, Long Term Care Partners, in cooperation with New Membership Rep the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), is conducting an LTC insurance educa¬ AFSA welcomes Lindsay Peyton to the AFSA tion campaign. The OPM Web site contains information about LTC insurance: go to staff as the new Membership Representative. Lindsay is a recent graduate of George Mason www.opm.gov/insure/ltc. Certified LTC insurance consultants are available to answer University. She has worked as a legislative assis¬ questions at the toll-free number 1 (800) LTC-FEDS (800-582-3337). Information is tant and campaign coordinator for Virginia also available at www.ltcfeds.com. The Web site offers online applications and an House Delegate David Albo and spent about three years working for Tech 2000 Inc., where interactive calculator to provide customized price quotes. The AFSA Web site also she was the database manager and process has information on LTC insurance, at www.afsa.org/retiree/ltc.html. writer. Undsay can be reached at (202) 338- The Federal Employees News Digest has put together a free report covering the key 4045, ext 525 and her e-mail address is points to consider before purchasing long-term care insurance. It can be downloaded [email protected]. from www.fendonline.com/LTCreport.html.

4 AFSA NEWS • OCTOBER 2002 Fund for American flOPBE USAID ■ BY JOE PASTIC Diplomacy joins CFC For the first time, federal workers can Let’s Plan for Promotions now designate their Combined Federal he 2002 promotion results were similar to the 2001 results. Campaign pledge to the Fund for T American Diplomacy (FAD), AFSA’s public Overall, 12 percent of the USAID Foreign Service (119 education and outreach charity. The FAD people) was promoted this year, compared to 11 per¬ supports efforts to educate diverse cent in 2001,8 percent in 2000 and 1999, and 9 percent in 1998. audiences about the role of diplomacy The most notable difference this year is the large number of and the significance of foreign policy, and how they influence U.S. economic promotions from FS-02 to FS-01. prosperity and national security. FAD We extend sincere congratulations to our colleagues who programs are highly varied, from week- won this year’s crapshooL Hold on there! How dare I refer long education programs for seniors through Elderhostel to a national high to this most important ritual with disrespect? Because it has school essay contest on the role of the been impossible to give helpful guidance to the many members who have asked me Foreign Service. No AFSA dues go toward how they too might get promoted I am not referring to colleagues who could be accused FAD programs. The FAD is listed under of laziness or lack of dedication. These are people who have been in grade many years the CFC’s “Educate America!” Federation. The FAD CFC number is 2460. and have been ranked for promotion more times than not Among these people are You can also donate to the AFSA those who have served prominently on high-profile task forces, others in positions above Scholarship Fund through the CFC (CFC their personal grades. number 2422). Most federal agency The hopefuls ask for clues to the promo¬ deadlines for CFC donations are in December. The State Department’s tion mystery. Many have been regularly top- Structure can come from a deadline is Dec. 13. Retirees can now ranked, but still, are always the bridesmaid We make CFC donations via a check or cannot just blame the agency or the panels. The multiyear promotion plan. through an annuity deduction. Contact agency tries every five years to overhaul the Lori Dec at [email protected] or 1 (800) 704- 2372, ext. 504 for more information. process. The panel members are mostly our own, and the public members are sincere and try to do the right thing. Open Season for Health Each year the agency dutifully implements all reasonable suggestions collected from panel debriefings. Some ideas are not pursued because implementation of them would Insurance and TSP require legislative change or consultation with Congress. I’d like to lay out one of those The open season for changing your health ideas that I find compelling. insurance policy runs through Dec. 10. For more information, go to www.opm.gov/insure. Panels presently base certain vital initial decisions on only the most current evalu¬ Open seasons for the Thrift Savings Ran run ation, representing only the past year. The first decision is whether to send an employ¬ from Oct. 15 to Dec. 31, and from April 15 to ee’s file for review by the Performance Standards Board. The second decision—heav¬ June 30. For TSP details, go to www.tsp.gov. ily influenced by the current-year evaluation — is whether to rank the employee for promotion. In doing this, the panels also refer to the previous five evaluations, but they Family Member Matters: are free to interpret these previous evaluations in their own way. Call for Writers The important factor now absent from the process is the reference point The employ¬ AFSA is seeking contributors for the ee, rater, appraisal committee and promotion panel all need structure and reference Family Member Matters column, which points when reviewing past-year performance for promotion consideration. Structure runs every other month in AFSA News. can come from a multiyear promotion plan. Prepared jointly in advance by the employ¬ Family member writers should focus on par¬ ticular issues of concern or interest to ee and agency workforce planning/career development experts, such a plan would set Foreign Service families. Examples include forth critical milestones and benchmarks that, once accomplished, objectively and con¬ employment, security, evacuations, health cretely establish that portion of the employee’s “proof’ of promotion eligibility. It would care overseas, and any of the numerous follow that each employee not be considered for promotion each year, but at the com¬ lifestyle issues unique to the Foreign Service. pletion of his or her promotion plan. Intermediate-year review would focus on a cri¬ Columns that address ways family members overcame obstacles or hardships are particu¬ tique of plan progress and to single out unsatisfactory performance. larly welcome. We also welcome looks at Employees with tangible guides for assignments, skill areas, and benchmarks—moti¬ the lighter side of Foreign Service life, and vated by the promotion associated with those accomplishments — will not only have humor is encouraged. Submit your 400- to the benefit of managing their own careers but will also be more inclined to take respon¬ 500-word essay to AFSA News Editor Shawn sibility for their success or lack thereof To work, this approach requires motivated employ¬ Dorman at [email protected]. There is no ees and sufficient agency workforce planning resources and commitment AFSA will deadline. All submissions are seriously con¬ sidered, and authors of selected submissions provide motivation to the Foreign Service. Can the agency provide the resources and receive a $60 honorarium. □ commitment? □

OCTOBER 2002 • AFSA NEWS S LEGISLATIVE UPDATE last year, at the request of AFSA, and has to leave the visa function in the State written several letters at key points to sen¬ Department, rather than moving it to the Hopeful Signs ators in support of the effort. Department of Homeland Security. The Because the House earlier passed a bill Senate Government Affairs-reported for Upcoming covering only the uniformed military, Homeland Security bill, which should be Legislation AFSA has been meeting with key House voted on in September, does not propose members to seek their support for to move the visa function out of State CAPITAL GAINS: AFSA’s legislative either. affairs staff has been making the rounds LOCALITY PAY: The Office of on Capitol Hill to push for inclusion of Management and Budget (OMB) has still Foreign Service members in new capital- not decided if it will seek legislation to gains tax legislation. AFSA has been extend locality pay (now only available to working with the Uniformed Coalition employees in Washington) to overseas and the American Bar Association to Foreign Service members. AFSA under¬ amend the tax code to remove the capi¬ stands that Under Secretary for tal-gains tax penalty against Foreign Management Grant Green recently re¬ Service and military members who can¬ emphasized to OMB the importance of not meet the 2-in-5 years residency acting on this in the upcoming FY 2004 requirement. Thanks primarily to the budget cycle. AFSA has locality pay at the support of Senators John McCain, R- top of our legislative agenda and will keep Ariz.; Finance Committee Chairman you apprised of developments. Max Baucus, D-Mont.; and Ranking VIRTUAL LOCALITY PAY (of interest to Member Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, the including coverage for the Foreign Service employees nearing retirement) and PIT Senate is expected to pass a bill, S. 2816, in the final version of the bill to be nego¬ RETIREMENT BENEFITS: These are includ¬ that covers both the military and the tiated at a Senate-House conference ed in the FY 2003 Authorization bill. Foreign Service. Adding to the chances committee. While the House still needs to appoint for success of the effort is the fact that HOMELAND SECURITY: As you all know, conferees, AFSA is optimistic that this bill Secretary Powell has been involved from the House of Representatives has voted will pass in the fall. □

Reform • Continued from page 1 for the American people. Diplomacy is an instrument of nation¬ fessionalism, responsibility, service and esprit de corps and to help al power, essential for maintaining effective international relation¬ prepare new employees for the practical demands and rigors of ships, and a principal means through which the United States defends Foreign Service life. It would reinforce and perpetuate a distinc¬ its interests, protects its borders, responds to crises, and achieves tive Foreign Service culture characterized by Service discipline, ded¬ its international goals. ication to duty, and patriotism. “The Foreign Service is a distinct corps of employees from whom AFSA sent the first draft of a proposed letter to members request¬ more is expected and to whom more is given. There is a balance ing feedback and input. Nearly 100 members responded, and the between the rewards and challenges of this service. While even the final draft reflects their input AFSA sent the proposed letter to challenges contain elements that attract many people to the Foreign Director General Ruth A. Davis on Aug. 2, and is awaiting a response. Service, it is important that you understand the commitment that you will be undertaking. Excerpts from Proposed Letter “Those of us who have spent many years in the Foreign Service “The Foreign Service is more than just a job: it is a demanding have found that the rewards of representing our great nation have and rewarding way of life. The rewards and challenges of a career far outweighed the demands laid upon us. I am confident that you in the Foreign Service are unique. The Foreign Service has a vital will have the same experience. In joining this corps of dedicated mission and a proud history. It was established to provide the pres¬ Americans, the expression ‘the United States of America’ will take ident with a dedicated and skilled corps of professionals who pos¬ on a new meaning and importance for you. You will become part sess keen understandings of the affairs, cultures, and languages of of something greater than yourself, something that began in 1776 other countries and who are available to serve in assignments when our first diplomat Benjamin Franklin set sail for Europe. You throughout the world as ordered. Foreign Service members work will see the world in a way most others can only dream. You will closely with other colleagues on the State Department team and at make your family and friends proud and perform an invaluable other federal agencies to accomplish the State Department’s mis¬ service to America. Welcome to the Foreign Service and the State sion of creating a more secure, prosperous and democratic world Department team!” □

6 AFSA NEWS • OCTOBER 2002 ■yk»][»3» FAMILY MEMBER MATTERS ■ BY KELLY MIDURA Now Why Would I Want to Go There?

There has been much discussion lately about the lack of bid¬ employed in D.C., but would have little chance of that status ders on “hardship” posts. It’s clear that many people con¬ overseas. Why would I give up my salary just in time for tuition sider today’s FSOs to be wimps, interested only in cushy, bills? In addition, my husband’s salary would probably drop: career-enhancing posts in the developed world. today’s piddling hardship differentials usually do not even match There is another reason officers aren’t bidding on the Washington locality pay. Free housing does not make up for Ouagadougous of the world: spouses are crossing them off the a lost second income and the considerable expenses of relocating list. I certainly have, after asking myself the following questions: and living overseas. Should we bid on a hardship post for the sake of my husband’s Should we bid on a hardship post to broaden our horizons? career? I learned a great deal during our tours in Latin America and I have seen no evidence that service in hardship posts accel¬ Africa, but I often did not know what I was getting into when erates a State career. On the contrary, it seems that the best way we bid on those posts. When we bid on Zambia in 1991, we relied to get promoted is to serve in highly visible places with highly on an outdated post report describing Lusaka as a “dean and attrac¬ visible people. It does tive dty.” (Neither was true.) Nowadays, I can read Real Post Reports I have seen no evidence that not appear to matter (www.realpostreports.com), post queries on discussion lists such service in hardship posts how hard it is for an offi¬ as AAFSW’s Livelines (www.aafsw.org), and e-mail spouses at post cer (or his spouse) to My research is no longer restricted to materials provided by State, accelerates a State career. accomplish the most and, in the case of many hardship posts, I conclude that I’ve been It seems that the best way to basic tasks during a there and done that. hardship posting. So, why would I agree to bid on hardship posts when there get promoted is to serve in Should we bid on a is no compelling professional, financial or personal reason to highly visible places with hardship post because it’s do so? Hardship assignments should be compensated not only our turn? by generous pay and career incentives for officers, but tangi¬ highly visible people. We have served at ble support for spouses, such as support for portable careers four hardship posts, and decently paid, professionally challenging embassy employ¬ including one of the poorest countries in the world, one of the ment. At the moment, no substantial reason exists for any¬ most devastated by AIDS, and one of the most crime-ridden, fol¬ one with a family to bid on these “hard-to-fill” assignments. lowed by one tour in Washington and our current post in Europe. If State wants to encourage officers and their spouses to bid Yet the next time we bid, my husband will be “eligible” for Fair on hardship posts, it would do well to address bread-and-but¬ Share, categorized with officers who have spent most, if not all of ter issues that matter to families, and stop admonishing offi¬ their careers in non-hardship posts. How is this “fair?” cers who simply have their priorities in the right place. □ Should we bid on a hardship post for the money? Kelly Bembry Midura is a Web site designer and writer who has By the time we bid on our next overseas post, we will be in accompanied her husband, Chris, a public diplomacy officer, to La Paz, Washington, D.C., with a child entering college. I will be fully Guatemala City, Lusaka, San Salvador, Washington and Prague.

FOREIGN SERVICE YOUTH the challenges of an internationally mobile mitment to the teen population at his post AWARDS CEREMONY lifestyle. The award program is organized Eric developed a first-of-its-kind Teen by the Foreign Service Youth Foundation, Community Liaison Office Program. Each Honoring Teens for the Department of State’s Family Liaison first-place winner received a $1,000 U.S. sav¬ Office and the Associates of the American ings bond. Volunteer Work Foreign Service Worldwide. The awards are Honorable mention recipients were The 2002 Foreign Service Youth sponsored by Harry M. Jannette Tristan Allen in Pretoria, South Africa; Awards were presented on July 25 in International and Wood-Wilson Company, Chelsea Hudson in Havana, Cuba; and the Treaty Room of the Department Inc. of Dallas, Texas. Joseph Jackson in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. of State by Under Secretary for First-place award winners Anne aid Eva Under Secretary Green also presented a Management Grant S. Green. These pres¬ Kolker (ages 15 and 13) were recognized Certificate of Appreciation to Michael tigious annual awards are given to Foreign for helping orphans in Ouagadougou, Yamamoto for an Eagle Scout project he Service teens who have contributed signif¬ Burkina Faso. Eric Wanner (17) also designed to help raise international aware¬ icantly to their communities, while facing received first place, honored for his com¬ ness in his Virginia community. □

OCTOBER 2002 • AFSA NEWS 7 riers to try to constrain premium increas¬ Q: Why the pressure on premiums? es in 2003 by considering an increase in A^The industry-wide trend out-of-pocket costs for services or to • toward higher health care adjust deductibles or co-pay waivers. costs continues to be pushed by pre¬ Carriers were also told that any benefit scription drug costs and, recently, esca¬ increases must be cost-neutral through lating hospital costs. Underlying these offsetting benefit reductions. Members, factors, according to the administration, Retiree Issues especially retirees with Medicare, should are technological changes, increased con¬ look carefully at prescription drug copay¬ sumer demand, health plan consolida¬ BY WARD THOMPSON, RETIREE UAISON ment rules. tion and increased provider leverage. For more information, go to Health www.opm.gov/insure and click on FEHB Q: How can our COLA be smaller than and open season 2003. the percentage increase in health Benefits premiums? Q: Why should I pay attention to the Q: Why aren’t there better dental and A^The annual cost of living upcoming Federal Employees Health vision benefits? • adjustment (COLA), applied Benefits (FEHB) open season? A* Except for HMO packages that to federal annuities and Social Security • include dental coverage at no benefits, is based on the Consumer Price A#It is always important for . employees and retirees to study extra cost to members, for years FEHB Index (CPI), in which medical costs con¬ open season materials carefully. FEHB plans have not been allowed to add or stitute only one of several elements, most open season runs from Nov. 11 through increase dental or vision benefits. This of which have not been hit by inflation. the end of December for retirees. derives from the long-standing govern¬ Health care costs are an increasing bur¬ Although most members do not change ment philosophy favoring traditional hos¬ den for people on fixed incomes. plans, there may be changes in the plans pital, surgical and medical benefits and that you should be aware of, not only in protection against unforeseeable health Q: Is it true that employees pay lower premiums but also in deductibles and care expenditures. Some plans do offer FEHB premiums than retirees do? copayments or coinsurance for particu¬ separate dental and vision benefits out¬ Federal workers have had a lar services. The administration told car- side the FEHB program. • “premium conversion” ben¬ efit since 2000, whereby they pay for health insurance premiums with pre¬ National Geographic • Continued from page 3 tax dollars, thus reducing taxable gross “This is not a career-enhancing move,” strained relations to contend with, annual income. Federal annuitants she said, “but I’m a mother first.” ambassadors must learn much more than were excluded from the program In Tokyo, one of newly appointed how to entertain foreign heads of state. because their entitlement to the bene¬ Amb. Howard Baker’s AFSA is grateful to fit was not made clear under Section first official duties was We were pleased to facilitate National Geographic 125 of the Internal Revenue Code. offering — in person for doing an excellent AFSA supports legislation to remedy — our nation’s apol¬ the production of this job of explaining to the this inequity. American people ogy to the families of outstanding documentary, the victims of the fatal exactly what their Q: If Medicare is my primary payer, why collision of an which presents some of the diplomatic corps does do I pay the full FEHB premium? American submarine to advance our vital ^The FEHB program, based on most positive images of A and a Japanese fishing national interests. We • the entire pool of eligible fed¬ ship. Baker’s presen¬ American diplomats seen on were pleased to facili¬ eral civilian employees and retirees, uses tation of his creden¬ tate the production of a single set of premiums which already U.S. television in recent years. tials to the emperor of this outstanding doc¬ reflect variations in health care needs as Japan in an ornate umentary, which pre¬ age and family situation change, as well ceremony is also shown. sents some of the most positive images as expectation of outside coverage Meanwhile, first-time ambassador of American diplomats seen on U.S. tele¬ including Medicare. As you qualify for Robert Royall learns the ways of Tanzania, vision in recent years. More information Medicare and/or long-term care, it his new home, in a crash course. But it’s about the special is available at becomes even more important to look not all pleasantries and protocol. With www.nationalgeographic.com/tv/ at costs and benefits of your FEHB plan extreme poverty, terrorist threats, and specials/ambassador. □ as a part of your coverage mix. □

8 AFSA NEWS • OCTOBER 2002 Scholarships • Continued from page 1 AFSA continues to add two or three new perpet¬ undergraduates. For the 2002-2003 school year, AFSA has bestowed ual scholarships each year from individuals who leave $123,500 in undergraduate financial aid awards to 70 students who J bequests in their wills, want to honor a loved one, want are children of Foreign Service employees. The students must main¬ ,to give to AFSA while living, or want a tax break. tain at least a 2.0 grade point average, take at least 12 credits a semes¬ Establishing a perpetual scholarship is a great, and per¬ ter, and attend a U.S. accredited college or university. Awards range manent, way to pay tribute to the Foreign Service: only from $1,000 to $3,000 and are payable to the school. Awards are the interest from the original donation is used as the intended to reduce loans and work-study and cannot reduce any award while the principal remains protected in perpetuity. grant the school is providing to the student AFSA financial aid scholarships were awarded to 64 students last Financial aid scholarship money comes from individual donors year. AFSA’s policy is to help the neediest students with higher award as well as from organizations and trusts. For example, DACOR amounts. Each family’s financial situation is assessed using the College (Diplomatic and Consular Officers, Retired) annually provides $30,000 Scholarship Service PROFILE, which can be found at www.col- to AFSA for aid to juniors or seniors majoring in foreign affairs. This legeboard.com. year 13 students received the DACOR awards. Associates of the Applications for AFSA scholarships are available Oct 1 and are American Foreign Service Worldwide (AAFSW) contributed due at AFSA by the following Feb. 5. For an overview of the AFSA $8,000 to fund eight $1000 scholarships. The following trusts bestowed Scholarship Program, application information, and a complete list¬ several awards in their names: Oliver Bishop Harriman Memorial ing of the 2002-2003 Financial Aid Awards, go to the AFSA Web Scholarship, Gertrude Stewart Memorial Scholarship, Wilbur J. Carr site at www.afsa.org, and click on the “Students” tab and then Memorial Scholarship, and Dorothy Osborne Xanthaky and “Scholarships.” For more information contact AFSA Scholarship Theodore Xanthaky Memorial Scholarship. Director Lori Dec at [email protected] or (202) 944-5504. □

ed overseas since 1990, renting out our register to vote and open a bank account home until the tenants purchased it in there. Be sure to notify Virginia that you July 2002. We used the proceeds from have done so by using federal Form 8822. this sale to buy a condo in Colorado in July. Will we have to pay taxes when we Q: When I attended the Retirement sell the house in Colorado? Seminar a few years ago, about 20 per¬ cent of the participants were considering Personal Finances You will have to pay federal and living in a country other than the United • Virginia state taxes on the sale of BY CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER States after retirement What are some the rental house in Virginia, unless this was MARY GINN of the financial/tax implications of retir¬ a Starker Exchange. For the Colorado house ing overseas? you will not pay federal or state taxes if it AFSA is proud to announce the first edition of a A#If you are working outside the new Q&A feature designed to address personal is your primary residence for two of the last • United States, foreign earned financial issues facing Foreign Service employees five years of ownership and if the capital gain income of less than $80,000 per year is not around the world. In April’s Foreign Service is less than $250,000 for single and taxable once you have lived overseas for 12 Journal, we asked you to send in your financial $500,000 for a couple. A rental property consecutive months (though you may questions related to investments, retirement plan¬ incurs a federal tax liability of 20 percent spend up to 35 days of that period in the ning, saving for your children’s education, prop¬ of the capital gain and 25 percent of all U.S.). However, you are supposed to pay erty management and any other related topics. depreciation. taxes in the country of residence on all After reviewing the questions received from read¬ income, including investment income ers so far, MSA’s Advertising and Circulation Q: Would our taxes be lower if we derived from offshore accounts. Also, no Manager Ed MUtenberger chose expert Mary Ginn, switched our legal state of residence from matter where you live, you are required to who has been an independent financial Virginia to Colorado? If so, how can we report any income from non-U.S. sources consultant for neady 20 years, to answer them. do that? Please send further questions to Ed at to the IRS if you are a U.S. citizen. [email protected]. Yes, the taxes in Colorado appear If your spouse is not a U.S. citizen, that • to be lower. (A state-by-state can have additional estate tax conse¬ breakdown is included in the AFSA Tax quences which need to be carefully con¬ Q: My wife and I have paid Virginia taxes Guide published each February in AFSA sidered. These may include a limited mar¬ and voted in Virginia since 1988, when I News.) To obtain residency in Colorado, ital deduction, as well as estate and invest¬ purchased a house there. I have been post¬ you will need to obtain a driver’s license, ment ramifications. □

OCTOBER 2002 • AFSA NEWS 9 COLEAD • Continued from page 1 across the country are especially well non-proliferation and enhancing security, involvement in the world, concerned that placed to become involved in COLEAD expanding world trade; and promoting America might take a turn toward isola¬ efforts to broaden support for American human rights. tionism. As stated in the COLEAD char¬ engagement in the world. Last October, COLEAD and the State ter, “Coalition members share a deep con¬ Among the 44 member organizations Department co-sponsored the “National cern about the increasing absence of pub¬ are the Associates of the American Foreign Foreign Policy Conference for Leaders of lic interest, awareness and understanding Service Worldwide (AAFSW), the Non-Governmental Organizations,” which of international affairs. We believe that American Academy of Diplomacy, the brought together leaders of the foreign over the longer run, this lack of under¬ Academy for Educational Development, the affairs community from inside and outside standing will have serious negative conse¬ American Public Health Association, government to dialogue about support for quences for U.S. policies and programs CARE, the Center for Strategic and U.S. foreign policy goals. Secretary Powell abroad. The Coalition will work to over¬ International Studies (CSIS), the National addressed the 400 participants, and the con¬ come ignorance about world affairs in Peace Corps Association, the Henry L. ference was broadcast on C-SPAN. Topics America and promote educational pro¬ Stimson Center, and the United Nations included human rights, international grams to redress this problem.” Association of the USA. health issues, regional issues, and interna¬ The debate about the role America Coalition members share concern tional trade issues. should play in the post-Cold War world has about the insufficient levels of funding for Relative to other sectors and interest taken on increased significance in the after- U.S. international programs, and they lobby groups, the foreign affairs community is fair¬ math of Sept 11. The coalition members Congress to increase the funding for State ly small and does not have significant finan¬ believe that the foreign affairs communi¬ Department operations, cultural diplomacy, cial resources. COLEAD is helping this ty must answer the growing criticism of the Peace Corps, international development community gain a stronger voice, and is the American engagement abroad and encour¬ programs, and other foreign affairs efforts. only broad-based association of foreign age new approaches, while improving its Coalition members meet often to discuss affairs organizations. If you are part of a communications with the American pub¬ strategy, working closely with AFSA’s leg¬ group that might want to join COLEAD, lic The coalition seeks to bring together the islative affairs staff. Key areas of focus for or if you want more information about foreign affairs community, at the nation¬ the COLEAD include: protecting the COLEAD activities, go to the Web site at al and grassroots level. AFSA retirees who global environment; promoting sustainable www.colead.org e-mail [email protected] or have returned to American communities development and resource use; dealing with call (202) 944-5519. □ M CLASSIFIEDS GRIEVANCE ATTORNEY (specializing TAX & FINANCIAL SERVICES since 1983) Attorney assists FS officers cor¬ ATTORNEY WITH 22 years successful rect defective performance appraisals, reverse ROLAND S. HEARD, CPA experience SPECIALIZING FULL TIME IN FS improper tenuring and promotion board deci¬ 1091 ChaddwyckDr. GRIEVANCES will more than double your sions, secure financial benefits, defend Athens, GA 30606 chance of winning. 30% of grievants win before against disciplinary actions and obtain relief Tel/Fax: (706) 769-8976 the Grievance Board; 85% of my clients win. from all forms of discrimination. Free Initial E-mail: [email protected] Only a private attorney can adequately devel¬ Consultation. Call William T. Irelan, Esq. • U.S. income tax services op and present your case, including neces¬ Tel: (202) 625-1800 Fax: (202)625-1616. • Many FS & contractor clients sary regs, arcane legal doctrines, precedents E-mail: [email protected] • Practiced before the IRS and rules. Call R. Mugane at • Financial planning WILL/ESTATE PLANNING by attorney Tel: (202) 387-4383, Tel: (301) 596-0175. • American Institute of CPAs, Member who is a former FSO. Have your will reviewed E-mail: [email protected] FIRST CONSULTATION FREE Free initial consultation. and updated, or new one prepared: No charge for initial consultation. FREE TAX CONSULTATION: For over¬ M. Bruce Hirshorn, Boring & Pilger, 307 seas personnel. We process returns as ATTORNEY Maple Ave. W, Suite D, Vienna, VA 22180 received, without delay. Preparation and rep¬ Tel: (703) 281-2161, Fax: (703) 281-9464 ESTATE PLANNING, WILLS, POW¬ resentation by Enrolled Agents. Federal and E-mail: [email protected] ERS OF ATTORNEY. General practice; all states prepared. Includes “TAX TRAX” PLACE A CLASSIFIED AD: $1.25/word estate planning: wills, trusts, living wills, pow¬ unique mini-financial planning review with rec¬ ommendations. Full planning available. Get the ers of attorney; review and update of old wills (10 word min.) First 3 words bolded free, add’l most from your financial dollar! Financial or drafting of new one; probate administra¬ bold text $2/word, header, box, shading $10 Forecasts Inc., Barry B. De Marr, CFP, EA tion. Charles S. Abell, Furey, Doolan & Abell, ea. Ad Deadline: 20th of the month for pub. 3918 Prosperity Ave. #230 Fairfax, VA 22031 LLP; 8401 Conn. Ave., #1100, Chevy Chase, 5 wks. later. Contact: Ad Mgr Tel: (202) 944- Tel: (703) 289-1167, Fax: (703) 289-1178, MD 20815, Tel: (301) 652-6880, 5507, Fax: (202) 338-6820 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: (301) 652-8972. E-mail: [email protected]

10 AFSA NEWS • OCTOBER 2002 CLASSIFIEDS

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OCTOBER 2002 • AFSA NEWS 11 ■ CLASSIFIEDS

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needs to cultivate an inclusive attitude, and modify the die Indian system: even the budgeted funds of ministries, past mindset of exclusivity and die corresponding turf- duly approved by parliament, can be spent only widi the warfare reflex. There are exceptional senior MEA offi¬ approval of the Finance Ministry, either direcdy for big- cials who are able to get other ministries on board on spe¬ ticket items, or through the “financial advisers” it cific issues, but this is not die general practice as yet. appoints and supervises in each ministry.) A ministry¬ Cooperation with non-state players is good in some areas, wide computer network does not exist, diough most ter¬ such as with die apex bodies of business and some ritorial divisions have their own local area networks; they branches of non-official international organizations, but do not talk to one another, or to die higher officials. An almost nonexistent with high-profile NGOs and human intranet or virtual private network linking MEA and the rights activists. missions remains on the drawing board. Though performance enhancement methods, many of them borrowed from business management, have crept Strengths and Weaknesses into the diplomatic work arena, die infrastructure to max¬ What are the accomplishments of the IFS, and its imize productivity is not uniformly in place. Methods to points of strength? What might one expect from this set improve performance encompass annual action plans, of professionals? My comments are necessarily subjec¬ benchmarking and service optimization (for example, in tive, because witiiin a “brotherhood” one may not find consular work, public affairs, and commercial promo¬ the distance for dispassionate scrutiny, and also because tion). MEA uses annual plans, but has not got around to diere exist no real tools for comparing foreign ministries tying resources into these, or carrying out a real delega¬ and diplomats. With these caveats I offer die following. tion of financial powers. (This is a general weakness of Indians are individualists for the most part, and this

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 39 Focus

shows in a huge between the The IFS is diplomat or a mission that fails to treat best and the worst among diplomats. economics as virtually die first priority Major missions are natural concentra¬ exceptionally small in at the majority of posts, on die premise tion points for talent, not just at the diat good political relations are a given level of the head of mission. Anyone size, by comparison condition in most countries but it is who has dealt with Indian counterparts economics diat explores die full enve¬ in Washington, D.C., New York or Paris with India’s needs lope of action, and valorizes die politi¬ will bear witness that the best can hold cal relationship as well. their own against anyone. But if die and the functions Is there an Indian negotiating style? true measure of a good system is diat it Stephen Cohen, one of the gurus of evens out the peaks and troughs by ele¬ performed. South Asia scholarship in the U.S., vating die performance of the lower has a brilliant chapter in his book, half, then the IFS has a way to go. India: Emerging Power (Brookings In multilateral diplomacy during die 1970s and 1980s, Institution, 2001), titled “The India That Can’t Say in what we might call die heyday of declaratory diploma¬ Yes.” Cohens thesis is, first, that Indians are intent on cy, Indians seized the high ground at conferences, U.N. establishing die moral and political equality of the two assemblies and committees — alas, not all of it very pro¬ sides and are especially touchy over “status”; second, they ductively. In bilateral diplomacy, which is necessarily are patient and will wait till the terms improve; third, they practiced on a much broader canvas, there are die bright negotiate for information; and fourth, they tend to have a stars, and the rest. And it is often noted diat the discrep¬ good institutional memory, better than that of the ancy between the peaks and troughs of ability and perfor¬ Americans. Cohen also speaks of “a defensive arrogance mance among different persons is glaring. Management and acute sensitivity to real and perceived slights,” and and business culture specialists observe die same trait of concludes that India seems to relish “getting to no.” He individualism, and a relative weakness at teamwork, when adds diat ME A has tight control over foreign negotiations they look at die Indian corporate world. and is difficult to bypass. One of die strong features of die IFS was an early shift to economic diplomacy. The first oil shock of 1973 deliv¬ Behind the “Indian Negotiating Style” ered a body blow to the Indian economy at a time when it Some of die above criticism comes from experience had barely recovered from die disastrous droughts of the with India-U.S. relations of die pre-1991 era, when India’s late 1960s (when P.L. 480 provided succor, before die South-centered diplomacy (including leadership of the Green Revolution became a reality), and from the Nonaligned Movement, G-77 and the like) produced Bangladesh War of 1971. Economic diplomacy became a inevitable confrontation with much of die West. However, matter of survival for India, and the IFS adapted rapidly, Strobe Talbott, whose 10-odd rounds of discussion widi quickly learning to blend political and economic objec¬ Jaswant Singh between 1998 and 2000 are the most inten¬ tives, and practice integrated diplomacy. sive dialogue carried out by India widi die U.S. or any The service produced role models like Bimal Sanyal odier partner, may not agree widi all of Cohens character¬ and Vishnu Aliuja, bodi senior heads of ME As Economics ization. Division, who demonstrated that being proactive involved Indian negotiators are often hemmed hi by an impos¬ a vast amount of internal diplomacy with the otiier min¬ sible brief, which is relatively rigid, to the point that no istries and agencies, but reliably produced results. The fallback positions are provided or dexibility given to die two mobilized public-private partnerships at home, at a negotiators. The result is “positional bargaining” and an time when even this concept was in its infancy, to push for impression of negativism. For example, this was the case project and consultancy contracts in die Gulf region, and in die past widi WTO meetings and odier multilateral to win placement for Indian technicians. Simultaneously, economic fora. By contrast, at Doha in November 2001, a they motivated Indian missions to blend political and eco¬ strong Cabinet minister leading the Indian delegation, nomic diplomacy, a craft I, too, learnt in my first ambas¬ widi die personal clout to obtain flexible instructions, sadorship in Algeria (1975-79). Today there is hardly a managed to produce a good result, overcoming die rigidi-

40 FOREIGN S E RVIC E ] OU RN AU OCT O B ER 2002 Focus

ties of the brief and past policy. Indian negotiators remains nonaligned in the original Many individual negotiators are bril¬ sense of die term, but real Indian liant, adept at winning trust and work¬ are often hemmed involvement with NAM and G-77 has ing to achieve results. And generally, in waned. Instead, there is a clearer per¬ multilateral settings Indians are often a in by an ception of self-interest, and a willing¬ popular consensus choice as rappor¬ ness to say so. This translates into teurs and committee chairmen. But in impossible brief. hard-headed pragmatism, where ideo¬ regional diplomacy, being adept at tac¬ logical rhetoric of die past is absent, tics is not enough when policy has been unimaginative or and does not cloud actions. This is especially visible in defensive. This has been the case, for example, in India’s pursuit of eco-political objectives. In die Sept. 11 attacks, past stance vis-a-vis ASEAN, when opportunities for close India finds vindication of the battle it has long waged association were passed up in die 1980s. Defensiveness against terrorism, plus the opportunity to pursue new has crippled India’s approach to the Soudi Asian relationships in Central Asia and elsewhere that move Association for Regional Cooperation, where a fear of all beyond a fixation with Pakistan. the smaller neighbors ganging up blocked innovative ideas As a service, die IFS has no political bias and it is well to overcome die impasse created by Pakistan's obduracy. harnessed in die pursuit of national goals. Yet it has the India’s economic reforms, launched in 1991, coincided latent capacity to perform far better, provided that real with the end of the Cold War. Bodi have affected die way reform can be implemented in the ME A and its process¬ India looks at die world, and die goals it pursues external¬ es incrementally — for that is the only “Indian way” that ly, in bilateral, regional and multilateral settings. India produces results. ■

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 41 Focus ON INDIA

OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGE: INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TODAY

NEW DELHI HAS BEEN WORKING ON ITS POST-COLD WAR PRIORITIES WITH MEASURED REALISM, BUT UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND IN THE NEW PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT.

BY K. SHANKAR BAJPAI

he pulls and pressures of both the world at large and domestic factors always condition the pursuit of foreign policy, but from its birth as an independent nation in 1947 India was obliged to function under the overwhelming demands of the former. The Cold War was for so very long the central fact of international life as to severely limit India’s search for an independent role. The deceptive lull following dissolution of the Soviet Union, mis¬ conceived as die end of history, had barely allowed a reorientation to get under way before the explosion of terrorism imposed its own still indefinite demands. On the whole, New Delhi has been working on its post-Cold War priorities

42 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN A L! O C TO B E R 2002 Focus

with measured realism, but uncertainties abound in the dealt with extensively, and magisterially, elsewhere in new period of adjustment. these pages — the following issues are at the top of India’s The evolution of ties between India and America, still foreign policy agenda: Pakistan’s antagonism, and the nascent, represents one of die more productive new ele¬ related need for reconciling the compulsions of tire glob¬ ments in each country’s drinking. It also brings out many al war on terrorism with the terrorism directed at India; of India’s major issues. The exploration of military coop¬ the stability or lack of it, of the South Asian neighbor¬ eration between the two illustrates a major shift in India’s hood; and the growing problem of India’s energy needs. approach to international strategic engagements. The opening up of India’s economy, while far slower and more Past as Prologue limited, and driven (and constrained) more by internal To get a practical grasp of the thoughts, attitudes and considerations than the more necessary calls of globaliza¬ objectives that shape India’s approaches to its post-Cold tion, also has a significant eye on the American market. War priorities and challenges, it is useful to review the his¬ Drugs, AIDS, the environment, globalisation and eco¬ torical roots of India’s foreign policy-making. The factors nomic inequities, weapons of mass destruction and the that determined India’s international interactions when it whole range of nuclear proliferation problems — all these took charge of its own destiny 55 years ago are still, to great global issues on which multilateral action is needed some degree, operative today. Those influences start with are also being intensively discussed. (Despite being seen the persistent, never-fulfilled, desire for policy¬ by many American policy-makers as a proliferator, India making autonomy. Whether working for autarchic eco¬ actually shares their concerns over looming dangers.) nomic policies, or working out nonalignment, India’s intel¬ The same is true of relationships of mainly bilateral lective classes felt independence was incomplete until we concern to India but which are so full of wider interna¬ could develop a foreign policy that was entirely Indian. tional aspects, or imponderables, as to be incapable of This longing was frustrated by the compulsions of the clear-cut national handling. These issues are as varied as Cold War, which erupted almost simultaneously with our China’s future role, developments in the Persian Gulf independence. Hence, partly, the aversion toward part¬ area and their enormous impact on India’s economy, nerships, military or economic, and the touchiness about and, of course, the great new international approach to outside interference in bilateral relationships. The real¬ terrorism. Delhi has become far more conscious of and ization that such freedom of choice is simply not available active regarding relations with countries to its east; and to anyone anymore — that we came, in fact, to a party that the problems and opportunities of Central Asia are a was already over — is still to work its way through India’s new, still inchoate but increasingly active set of inputs collective consciousness. into planning. An innate isolationism reinforced this urge to act alone. In addition to the India-U.S. relationship, which is Historically, India was a world unto itself, acted upon from outside rather than reaching outward itself. India did K. Shankar Bajpai joined the Indian Foreign Service in once have an outside presence — witness Angkor Wat or 1952. His foreign tours took him to Bonn, Ankara, Borobudur, the Indian-inspired monuments in Cambodia Bern and San Francisco. He then served as the and Indonesia, respectively— and its frontiers were never Government of India’s representative in Sikkim (1970- as all-inclusive or protective as many like to think. But 1974) and as secretary of the External Affairs Ministry these were essentially trading links, and do not alter the (1982-1983). Mr. Bajpai was ambassador to the basic fact that India never sought to act outside those nat¬ Netherlands (1975), Pakistan (1976-1980), China ural frontiers that its inhabitants felt defined its unity. (1980-1982) and the U.S. (1984-1986). Following Indeed, the only Indian name, used since Vedic times, to retirement in 1986, he was Regents and Visiting cover tiie regions that constituted the traditional concept Professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and of India is “jambu-dwipay,” or the great island. Initially inaugurated the Chair of Non-Western Studies at used cosmologically, it reflects the way Indians have usu¬ Brancleis University. He was also a senior internation¬ ally thought of their land, as cut off from the rest of the al adviser to Merrill Lynch. Since 1995 he has served world. Considering both the number of invasions India as the founder-chairman of the Delhi Policy Group. endured prior to independence and the active role in

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 43 Focus

world affairs it has taken since, this element may be hard millennia. The nationalist cause was deeply rooted in his¬ to accept, but the average Indians preference for not tory as well as idealism, witii tens of millions of India’s engaging with the world abroad has been a significant fac¬ Muslims sharing in die vision. But it was hard to define; tor in our thinking. it had to be felt from within. Compared to tins almost The nature of India’s nationalist movement, specially mystical sense of India’s unity, the cold, hard logic of the the influence of Gandhi, is also important. Non-violence argument for partitioning India on communal lines seemed all die more relevant an ideal after die horrors of sounded simple and persuasive, as India was to find to its World War II, which strengdiened the conceptual aver¬ continuing cost. (The irony was that in die majority of die sion to the role of military force, notwithstanding Delhi's areas in what was finally to be Pakistan die local leaders resort to its use, and molded India’s views on issues rang¬ were opposed to partition, but die Indian nationalists gave ing from military alliances to disarmament and die U.N.’s in and accepted it.) There was no way any line could have role. After two great wars, a widespread idealism flitted been drawn fully separating the two communities, even if briefly across the world, and hopes of a new world order all Muslims had preferred to opt out. The ensuing horrors based on international law and multilateral institutions were to have lasting consequences in embittering atti¬ were not confined to die underprivileged states. Both its tudes between the two — eventually tiiree — new states, own traditions and the state of the world, with another war but die strongest effect on policy-making was to leave a direatening, encouraged a feeling diat a new message was profound commitment to maintaining, first and foremost, needed and India might just have it. To dismiss both the the unity of what remained of India. notion and its believers as humbug is easy enough, but that would depreciate die strengdi and sincerity at work New Elements therein, and ignore the extent to which moral preachings Much has changed, especially in the world in which were the currency of the day. India must willy-nilly make its way. India’s world-view Anodier powerful induence was anti-colonialism. remains strongly rooted in die circumstances in which it Almost die first, and largest, colonized country to gain emerged on the international scene, yet it is not as diough independence, India felt its freedom was partial and vul¬ we are mired in die past. There is sufficient adaptability nerable until all colonies were freed. Decolonization was to seek ways diat are better suited to current and forth¬ a top foreign policy priority, and remained so despite coming needs and purposes. Strategic and economic real¬ much friction witii many powers. Almost as influential ities are stimulating new flunking, if as yet tentatively, and was socialism, universally die doctrine of die colonized. striking new elements are already at work. Not only was socialism popular in die culture of the 1920s Some change is evident in economic thinking, for to 1940s that formed most anti-colonial leaders, but example. A powerful private sector, a tradition of entre¬ socialists in the imperialist countries were the first few preneurship, die erosion of economic frontiers with the friends die nationalists had anywhere, and socialist princi¬ evolution of a global economy, the growth of new techno¬ ples seemed die fairest way to meet the terrible inequities logical and brainpower-based businesses at home, and the of society in tire colonies. evident failure of state-controlled economies worldwide Above all, however, was die imperative of maintaining have gradually opened up our ways of doing business. As unity. Indians had always been told that diey were too full remaining constraints wither, India’s place in the interna¬ of diversities to be able to keep together when the tional economy will become a major element in its foreign cementing force of British rale was removed. Indian policy. The slowness of change, however, marks the per¬ nationalists dismissed this assertion as imperialist divide- sistence of old fears and faiths. For instance, diough anti¬ and-conquer tactics, and held to a profound belief that we colonialism would seem a part of die past, and there is no were all brothers, and that whatever differences our colo¬ burning issue to keep up the good fight, the apprehension nizers exploited would disappear with diem. Yet India’s of “neo-colonialism,” and particularly “economic imperial¬ new leaders were unable to meet the crucial challenge of ism,” is not negligible. It strengthens the inwardness tiiat Hindu-Muslim relations. The idea that the area between constrains India’s readiness to interact with the world in die Himalayas and the ocean constituted a coherent ways appropriate to its size and capabilities, not to men¬ whole had animated its inhabitants and outsiders alike for tion its national interest.

44 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN AL/O CT O B ER 2002 Focus

One dramatic new factor is India’s One dramatic new policy because of the Pakistani realization of the need for military involvement in Jammu and Kashmir. strengdr. Britain had developed India factor is India’s as a base of power, relying on it for Current Challenges extension from Suez to Hong Kong; realization of the need India’s development as a military and at the end of World War II India power, which offers so many possibili¬ had one of the largest armies in the for military strength. ties for its role bodi as a fellow worker world, and one of the worlds largest widi die United States and as a stabiliz¬ industrial bases. The potential to be a ing factor in its region in its own right, significant military power was deliberately rejected. India also complicates a major issue for New Delhi’s policy¬ was accused of hypocrisy, of using military power readily makers: relations with neighbors. South Asia, as it is now enough — in Kashmir, in Hyderabad, in Goa — but it commonly called, was essentially a unified conglomera¬ really took the 1962 conflict with China to drive home the tion under British rule: Nepal was proudly if only techni¬ need for an effective military though the thinking has cally independent, Sri Lanka had a separate link with remained defensive. The development of a nuclear London, and Bhutan enjoyed lack of defined status; but weapons capability' and delivery systems has introduced togedier witii present-day Pakistan, Bangladesh, the still incalculable dimensions to India’s potential military Maldives and India, they were all dominated by die Raj in role, and many questions about the theory and practice of Delhi in practically tire same ways. Once independent, militaiy power await development. drey feared India was out to dominate them afresh. The While hesitantly mentioned, the concern for unity —- suspicion of Indian hegemonism, usually accompanied by both territorial and political — remains the most potent perceived advantages from India-bashing for domestic of the historic influences at work today India’s political political purposes, deprived the region of all the immense evolution is one of history's most remarkable achieve¬ benefits of working together for a whole host of common ments. No democracy has ever encompassed so many purposes — communications, weather forecasting and diversities — religious, linguistic, racial, regional — and flood control warnings, healtir, drug control, sports and, in such huge numbers. Yet within a couple of decades above all, economic ties. All the infrastructure of fruitful after independence India empowered ever wider sec¬ interaction that existed before India’s independence was tions of the underprivileged of its society, compressing willfully abandoned, with all states of the region looking in processes of democratization for which the established ever)' direction except toward each other. exemplars of the system needed generations, and usually In the last two decades, with regional cooperation bloody revolutions. India has witnessed more than its fair being developed elsewhere in the world wherever possi¬ share of violence, but has managed to go a very long way ble, the South Asian version — the South Asian toward consolidating its unique nationhood mainly Association for Regional Cooperation, established in 1985 through peaceful means. Some of the sharpest chal¬ — has been overdue, tentative and woefully limited, and lenges — separatist extremism in the Tamil and Sikh India bears a heavy responsibility for diis. Indo-Pakistani communities — have been met, but others remain, main¬ differences are a built-in brake on progress and, sadly, ly in the Northeast and in Kashmir. Though colonialist except for Bhutan and the Maldives, and to some extent prophecies of disintegration left marks on Indian minds, Sri Lanka, the neighbors have almost enjoyed seeing India the issues involved are now sensibly discussed, and the in conflict rather than working out advantageous cooper¬ overcentralization of power in New Delhi is no longer ation with New Delhi. This is particularly unfortunate in considered necessary to restrain “fissiparous” tendencies economic matters, especially in the field of energy. — indeed, it is now widely seen as an impediment to tire Nepal’s great hydroelectric potential, and Bangladesh’s further development of a vibrant nationhood. Still, the huge natural gas deposits, provide the basis for a truly old underlying fears are politically live and act to prevent impressive regional take-off, but the psychological hang¬ the degree of devolution that might best meet die pre¬ ups are beyond the reach of reason. (Americans should sent challenges. While this is mosdy a matter of domes¬ know something of tire irrationalities one has to deal with tic arrangements, it becomes vitally relevant to foreign among neighbors if one is — by a very very long way —

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 45 Focus

the biggest power around.) While illustrating die continu¬ him. We have been put in a fix, and dealing with it is by ing hold of outdated notions, they make the production of far the most pressing and serious of our issues. a sensible framework of Soudi Asian cooperation a key objective for Indian diplomacy. The Kashmir Impasse Hitting India’s national interests in more direct and far- Whether the militancy in Kashmir is Pakistan-con- reaching ways is Pakistan’s attitude toward India. Until trolled or arises from the manifest dissatisfaction of many the events of last Sept. 11, the mess Pakistan was malting Kashmiris with New Delhi can be argued endlessly, but of its own affairs and interest in India for other reasons two facts are incontrovertible: one, Pakistan could not suc¬ had begun to overcome international susceptibility to the ceed as well as it does without such genuine dissatisfaction simplistic arguments of Muslim separateness. Whether with India’s rale; and two, New Delhi could work out set¬ India’s case was better understood or not, there was little tlements with the Kashmiris tomorrow if there were no support left for Pakistan. Sept. 11 had the paradoxical Pakistani-directed terrorism from outside. India has to effect of changing this by making the creators and meet Kashmiri aspirations; it has unquestionably mishan¬ employers of the Taliban beneficiaries of the new interna¬ dled the situation and must remedy it, but this is its tional campaign against terrorism. It is, of course, an old domestic duty. In relation to Pakistan, what emerged Wild West tradition to co-opt the gunslinger into the from partition cannot be tinkered with now without incal¬ posse — and the Afghanistan intervention has resembled culable consequences. nothing so much as a Wild West outlaw hunt writ large — Whereas sanctifying the status quo is the maximum but as the continuing victim of the gunslinger, India may concession New Delhi can envisage, Pakistan seeks a be forgiven for wondering how it is expected to embrace basic change in the status quo. The continuing terrorism

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inflicted on India is the most effective weapon Pakistan on imports for 80 percent of its energy, India will have has ever found to pressure India: like most states, India is to compete with other growing economies. The secu¬ unable to develop graduated responses to this new instru¬ rity of the Persian Gulf, India’s main supplier, is thus ment of policy, and has been driven to threaten tire ulti¬ even more important for India than for America, but mate sanction of war. While presently defused, the result¬ presents a classic example of how commonality of inter¬ ing crisis remains dangerously risky. The international ests may be less compelling than differences over community — that euphemism for America — therefore means. America has relied, as its chief regional instru¬ increasingly urges India-Pakistan talks. This seemingly ment for stability, on Saudi Arabia, from where untold reasonable, practical, even inevitable view is the “continu¬ harm has been done to India by the funding of Islamic ing cost” India pays for dre oversimplified view of its com¬ extremism; whereas India has worked closely with both plex, almost tortuous case. That case is not simply that Iraq and Iran, both of which are anathema to cross-border terrorism has to stop before any new talks Washington. India fully supported the Gulf War, but can begin, but also diat Kashmir cannot be dealt with in paid heavily for it with the evacuation of 350,000 isolation. Attempts to resolve the Kashmir dispute, while Indian workers from the region and loss of their remit¬ necessary to meet Pakistani compulsions, cannot be on tances, and astronomical oil prices. No one in the Pakistan’s insistence that such a solution is a prerequisite Indian leadership holds any brief for Saddam Hussein, for detente. On die contrary, die attempts have to be part and as already noted, India is in agreement with of a process that embeds die issue in the wider context of America over the dangers of spreading weapons of detente, which alone can create changes of circumstances mass destruction; but the problems that could arise in which die issue can be sensibly discussed. from another war in the region need no elaboration. Had Pakistan agreed to what India learned from its India is often thought to have great power ambitions as experience with China — namely, that if you cannot well as pretensions. Loose rhetoric in India may encour¬ resolve your main difference it helps to develop relations age this notion, but it is not something animating India’s in otiier fields — there might today have been positive policy-makers or people. With its civilization, size, strate¬ elements at work to prevent tilings from getting out of gic situation, strengths present and potential, and die tal¬ hand. Instead, there are none whatsoever — no pressures ents of its peoples, for India to play a major role in the evo¬ at work within either government, or country, no sense of lution of our times could hardly be considered a manifes¬ benefits from a changed relationship, no trust in each tation of hegemonistic ambition. And, if the U.N. others bona fides and no dialogue. Even matters both Security Council is to be expanded, India’s demand to be sides have an interest in soiling out are left out — for included among the permanent members is, again, hard¬ example, avoiding nuclear miscalculations or accidents. ly unreasonable, but it is not on the short list of foreign We are talking to each other through America, which is a policy priorities. major change for an India historically opposed to foreign The projection of power outside its borders has not involvement. However vehemently New Delhi may insist been India’s natural inclination. True, it has intervened, that Americans are only a channel of communication (not commendably, to save existing regimes in the Seychelles mediation), it is only American involvement alongside and Maldives, and more controversially, but essentially in India’s show of resolve that can have any effect on stop¬ the hope of preventing upheaval, in Sri Lanka. India is ping cross-border terrorism and creating the basis for now engaged in joint efforts with the U.S. Navy on behalf talks, and it is up to New Delhi to make the most of this of the peaceful openness of the Indian Ocean sea lanes; reality. This working out of the U.S.-Pakistan-India inter¬ and it was in the front fine against terrorism long before connections is a formidable diplomatic undertaking. last Sept. 11. But the claim to inwardness, to being hap¬ piest left alone, remains valid. India is learning, however, Beyond the Region that “the world is too much with us,” and that it must Similar challenges, albeit less pressing, could arise in engage with the world and, in that process, meet the chal¬ other areas of potential cooperation with the United lenges discussed here. Its interaction with the United States. India’s energy needs are growing, and will grow States is a promising if still uncertain and vulnerable new even faster as its economy grows. Already dependent factor. ■

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 47 Focus ON INDIA

No MORE AMBIGUITY: INDIA’S NUCLEAR POLICY

IN 1998, INDIA TRANSFORMED ITS STATUS TO A NUCLEAR WEAPON STATE. ITS NUCLEAR POLICY IS BASED ON TWO PILLARS: MINIMUM DETERRENCE AND NO FIRST USE.

BY VIJAI K. NAIR

ithout abandoning its belief in the propriety of total nuclear disarmament, India bucked U.S. pressure and world opinion in 1998 to transform its status to a nuclear weapon state. India’s apparently contradictory national security policy is the product of history. It is the product of the Indian establishments exceptional understand¬ ing of the dynamics of tire global nuclear weapons environment as it developed and sensitivity to the changing implica¬ tions for tire nations security interests. In 1947, lacking tire political experience of governments guiding their states through tire modern-day jungle of inter-

48 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAh/OCTOBER 2002 Focus

national relations, the leader¬ humor Nehru along on die ship of newly-independent India is a nuclear weapon state. assumption that his exhorta¬ India saw nuclear weapons as This is a reality that cannot be denied. tions on behalf of disarma¬ a destabilizing factor that It is not a conferment that we seek; ment would help contain lat¬ threatened the global security nor is it a status for others to grant. eral proliferation of nuclear environment within which The call made in the [U.N. Security weapons to the original India had to exist as a sover¬ Council] Resolution that we should coterie. Of great consequence eign nation. The conviction stop our nuclear programs or missile for India as die Cold War era that nuclear weapons are programs is unacceptable. Decisions unfolded was the fact diat the abhorrent to the larger in this regard will be taken by the U.S. and its Western Bloc human values and that their government on the basis of our own allies adopted an “if you aren’t possession — by whomever assessments and national security widi us you’re against us” view or however few — is a threat requirements, in a reasonable and toward India: diey perceived to mankind as a whole charac¬ responsible manner. India’s nuclear weapon poten¬ terized the times. This view — Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, tial as a threat to their national was forcefully articulated by June 8, 1998, in a statement before the interests, and proceeded to Jawaharlal Nehru, who, as Upper House of Parliament in response to evolve and implement a wide India’s prime minister and his U.N. Security Council Resolution 1172. range of so-called disarma¬ own foreign minister, steered ment policies that threatened India through its first 17 years. During this time India the existence of India’s sovereign nuclear option. became a leading proponent for the cause of total and As it happened, Nehru’s idealistic belief in the good¬ complete nuclear disarmament, a philosophy that remains ness of man and a global brotherhood was abruptly shat¬ a bedrock of Indian policy even today. tered in 1962 when Chinese President Mao Zedong sur¬ The victors of the second world war, the only states that reptitiously took over 30,000 square kilometers of Indian had acquired the phenomenal power accruing from the territory in the Aksai Chin plateau and unleashed the possession of nuclear weapons, were quite happy to People’s Liberation Army through Sikkim and the North East Frontier Agency (now the state of Arunachal Brig. Vijai K Nair retired from the Indian Army in 1991 Pradesh) to deliver a stunning defeat to the Indian mili¬ after 30 years of service, having been awarded the VSM tary. (China claims yet another 90,000 square kilometers for distinguished service. In addition to three tenures of of Indian territory in the eastern state of Arunachal combat duty, he served as an instructor at the Defence Pradesh, a claim Beijing supported by military offensives Services Staff College, commander of an Independent in 1967 and 1987 and continues to make with regular fre¬ Armoured Brigade, and deputy director general of strate¬ quency to this day.) The main fallout of this conflict did gic planning at the Directorate of Perspective Planning, not materialize until 1964, when China crossed the Indian Army. Brig. Nair earned a masters degree in nuclear threshold, bringing about an exponential incre¬ defence studies and a doctorate in political science. He ment in its power quotient and bringing the effect of specializes in nuclear strategy formulation and nuclear nuclear weapomy directly to bear on India’s national secu¬ arms control negotiations. He is the author of several rity perceptions. books, including Nuclear India (New Delhi, 1992, cur¬ The dilemma for India was whether to sign on the dot¬ rently under revision). He is currently a member of the ted line of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and governing body of the Forum for Strategic ir Security eschew nuclear weapons in keeping with its basic philoso¬ Studies and editor of the Forums journal, Agni Brig. phy of nuclear disarmament, or to actively pursue the Nair is on the guest faculty of the Foreign Services nuclear option to deter China from factoring its nuclear Institute in New Delhi, and is managing director of capability, legitimized by the NPT, to seize the territories Magoo Strategic Infotech Pvt. Ltd,, an information ser¬ it claimed. It was becoming clear to the Indian leadership vice providing daily news updates and analyses on that tiie nuclear nonproliferation drive was not meant as a nuclear agendas, international and regional. step toward disarmament, but rather to legitimize the

OCTOBER 2002/FOREJGN SERVICE JOURNAL 49 Focus

selective possession and use of nuclear weapons for meters of nationally legitimized policy. national and collective security. India’s embrace of the • Low-level alert status of strategic forces to preclude Eisenhower Atoms for Peace program and pursuit of any possibility of air accidental or unauthorized launch, nuclear technology for power and other peaceful means and assure that a reaction by strategic forces complies had, in effect, given it the potential to exercise the with the conflict status. “nuclear option” if the security environment required. In • A deployment policy that gives tire political leader¬ tire event, the Indian leadership decided to walk two ship confidence that the proposed launch sequence is not seemingly incongruous strategic padis at once — espous¬ jeopardized by a pre-emptive nuclear strike by an adver¬ ing the cause of nuclear disarmament, on the one hand, sary. Tiris would include a built-in guarantee of retaliation and simultaneously creating a fallback capability to deter if the situation so demands. China in the event real and total nuclear disarmament • A moderate force level, well within the national tech¬ failed to materialize. nological and resource horizons, so that it does not upend All this is water under the bridge — albeit water drat the national socio-economic well-being. drove the wheel drat turned India’s evolution into a The closest New Delhi has come to spelling out its nuclear weapon state in 1998. But what is India’s current nuclear doctrine is the Draft Nuclear Doctrine, released nuclear policy? How does it fit into tire larger matrix of Aug. 17, 1999, by the National Security Advisory Board. American strategies? And what part might it play in dri¬ The merit of this document lies in the fact that for the first ving the dynamics of nuclear strategies among India’s time ever the Indian government made public its thought friends and foes? process on evolving nuclear security policies, a critical step in tire development of a nuclear weapons strategy and its An Unambiguous Policy management policy. The draf t doctrine lays out tire broad India’s nuclear policy is articulated unambiguously in parameters for development of India’s nuclear strategy, tire Annual Report 2001-2002 of tire Ministry of Defense, which is predicated on fielding a minimum credible put before parliament in March. As the Report states: deterrent, a weapons capability based on a ‘triad’ (a capa¬ “India remains a consistent proponent of general and bility to deploy and launch nuclear weapons from plat¬ complete disarmament and attaches the highest priority forms on land, at sea or in tire air) and limited to retalia¬ to global nuclear disarmament. India’s policy on disarma¬ tion-specific situations. ment also takes into account changes that have taken According to tire draft doctrine, India will only initiate place in the world, especially in tire 1990s. The nuclear a nuclear attack in retaliation to a nuclear strike on its civil tests of May 1998 do not dilute India’s commitment to tiris and military' assets: any nuclear attack on India and its long-held objective. ... As a nuclear weapon state, India is forces shall result in punitive retaliation with nuclear' even more conscious of its responsibility in tiris regard weapons to inflict damage unacceptable to tire aggressor. and, as in the past, initiatives in pursuit of global nuclear The magnitude of the retaliation clearly points to disarmament continue to be taken. ...” ‘counter-value’ targets, or area targets having a high den¬ The Report further states: “India’s nuclear weapons sity of population and economic infrastructure. Deputy capability is meant only for self-defense and seeks only to Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Raj Kadyan recently ensure that India’s security, independence and integrity explained: “India has maintained that even a tactical are not threatened hr future. India is not interested in a nuclear strike on its forces will be treated as a nuclear first nuclear arms race. This is tire rationale behind the two pil¬ strike, and shall invite massive retaliation.” lars of India’s nuclear policy — minimum deterrence and India has proceeded with development and induction no-first-use.” The document also explicitly rejects war¬ of systems, infrastructure and hardware to include: fighting doctrines and tire concept of launch-on-waming. • Delivery systems that would reliably penetrate hos¬ India’s nuclear weapons policy requires, further, drat tile airspace in the technological environment that will tire following be assured: prevail two decades into the future; and reach extreme • Absolute and positive control by the highest civil¬ ranges prescribed by the nation’s nuclear strategy from ian authority of all national strategic assets so that secure launch sites, both mobile and static, from sea, land strategic weapon systems are not used outside the para¬ or air. In the existing environment this entails an IRBM

50 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/O C TO B E R 2002 Focus

that would threaten retaliation against targets visualized Agreement for Peace and Tranquility was signed in 1993, 360 degrees around India; subsurface launched missiles to as the first step in a hoped-for dialogue. The stonewalling guarantee survival of the strategic deterrent; and cruise tactics Beijing has employed indicate that it has no desire missiles to enhance accuracy and penetration. to resolve die Sino-Indian territorial issue now, or in the • A warhead inventory in keeping with the targeting near future, pointing to a conflict of interests with China policy dictated by the nuclear strategy, with yields com¬ in the long term. mensurate to the required levels of target punishment Not only is China a long-established nuclear weapon dictated by strategy. state widi a carefully diought-out nuclear strategy in • A national policy for integrated command and place, but it continues to take gigantic strides in modern¬ control with an enlightened leadership. izing and increasing its nuclear arsenal. The country is cre¬ • Validation of hardware to be incorporated in die ating a subsurface nuclear capability diat gives it the nuclear infrastructure, some of which may have to be test¬ potential to deploy nuclear weapons in the Indian Ocean. ed under pressures and temperatures of a nuclear explo¬ China has also tested and produced tactical nuclear sion. weapons, and introduced a nuclear war-fighting doctrine in the PLA for use against qualitatively superior conven¬ Threat Assessment tional forces. Further, China’s nuclear doctrine includes The Draft Nuclear Doctrine is predicated on assump¬ use of nuclear weapons to setde territorial disputes and its tions diat have been identified and resolutely adhered to ‘no-first-use’ strategy is directed only toward non-nuclear by successive Congress, United Front and BJP regimes. weapon states, a group from which India was excluded First among diem is the recognition tiiat nuclear weapons well before May 1998. remain instruments for national and collective security, If China were to resort to armed conflict to resolve its the possession of which on a selective basis has been territorial claims along India’s northern borders, it would sought to be legitimized through permanent extension of find itself logistically handicapped and pitted against a the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in May 1995. qualitatively superior force. Under the circumstances, it Second, India has no intention of rolling back its nuclear may resort to localized tactical nuclear strikes to facilitate weapons strategy, as has been clearly stated through its achievement of its military objective. Although China’s rejection of die resolution of die Sixth NPT Review current deployment of its strategic assets suggests a land- Conference calling for such a reversal. based threat from die north, New Delhi cannot rule out India’s nuclear policy, its nuclear doctrine and nuclear employment through Myanmar on its eastern flank or the strategy are structured to cope with four very disparate threat from sea-based nuclear weapons that the expand¬ threat perceptions. They are: ing potential of the PLA Navy and the bases China is cre¬ China. In addition to occupying large tracts of Indian ating in die Andaman Sea off the coast of Myanmar territory, China rejects Indian sovereignty over Sikkim, potentially afford. and lays claim to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh up to Pakistan. The threat from Pakistan is equally explicit the Brahmaputra River in the Assam plains. India’s con¬ and immediate. Having created a nuclear weapons capa¬ cerns also include China’s defense cooperation widi bility, Pakistan has met the imperatives for a deployment Myanmar, its deployment of surveillance and communi¬ policy and has articulated a policy, which unabashedly cation systems on the Coco Islands, acquisition of strate¬ links the nuclear weapons program to its ongoing hostility gic port facilities and the construction of strategic surface widi India. Ambassador Munir Akram threatened to use communications connecting Yunan Province to the nuclear weapons to wrest control of Kashmir from India Andaman Sea, its assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear and mis¬ at the United Nations on May 25, and was echoed by sim¬ sile programs (documented in Jane’s Intelligence Review ilar rhetoric from Pakistani President Musharraf in and Time magazine, among odier places), and its frequent Islamabad. New Delhi must assume that Islamabad’s incursions across the line of actual control. recendy-created National Command Audiority has for¬ No progress whatsoever has been made on die border mulated an employment policy directed toward India, dispute by the Joint Working Group and its specialist cell, even diough Pakistan’s recent round of nuclear missile- the Experts Working Group, set up soon after die mongering is aimed more at drawing international inter-

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 51 Focus

vention into its dispute with India. The verbal threats Western governments to infer that India is deterred from from Pakistan’s leadership were meant not so much to initiating a conventional strike to wipe out terrorist camps deter India from launching an offensive into Pakistan to in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir by Pakistan’s nuclear destroy Islamabad’s surrogate terrorist infrastructure as weapons capability at dris poiirt in history. they were designed to heighten international concerns to Counterproliferation. Yet another drreat — one a level that would force extra-regional powers to intervene which may not necessarily involve nuclear weapons — in Kashmir on behalf of Pakistan. emanates from die philosophy of counterproliferation New Delhi is fully aware of the infirmities of Pakistan’s espoused by dre U.S. and dre strategic means it has devel¬ nuclear potential and its strategic disadvantages (reports oped and incorporated into dre war fighting doctrines of its in the Western media notwithstanding), whereby a dreater commands. Counterproliferation refers to tire use nuclear exchange would result in its annihilation as a of military action to prevent proliferation or disarm prolif¬ nation-state even though it may be able to inflict consid¬ erate countries. In spite of a limited estrangement in U.S.- erable death and destruction on India. As far as tire actu¬ Pakistani relations in the 1990s, they are today full-fledged al act of a nuclear strike against India is concerned, allies in a war against terrorism, witir troops conjointiy Pakistan seems more than adequately deterred. And, addressing tire Taliban and al-Qaida operating in eastern given India’s no-first-use policy and tire fact that its Afghanistan and western Pakistan. Under tirese conditions nuclear capability was not developed to deal with the mil¬ the U.S. strategy clearly lays down that tire theater com¬ itary threat from Pakistan, in any case, Pakistan has no mander must initiate counterproliferation operations cause to fear a nuclear attack from India. But it would be designed to destroy all nuclear weapon systems and atten¬ a serious miscalculation on tire part of Pakistan and dant national nuclear infrastructure of any country that Need Auto Parts NOIV?

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52 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN A L/O C T O B E R 2002 Focus

goes to war with its ally. India cannot turn a blind eye to The Indo-U.S. Equation such a possibility, and needs to include certain defensive India does not perceive a threat from die U.S. in the measures to safeguard its strategic assets and wherewithal. foreseeable future and has no intention of developing Restrictions on Trade and Development. Last strategic capabilities that would cause the U.S. security but not least is the threat posed to India’s capacity to concerns. However, the Indian strategic force structures keep its nuclear arsenal contemporary to the changing could have an incidental effect on U.S. forces deployed in dynamics of nuclear capabilities and doctrines among the Asian region as a consequence of its requirements to the nuclear weapon states. Failure to keep the nuclear deter China. The benign nature of the overall Indo-U.S. capability current would soon render its “minimum relationship, therefore, suggests die value of instituting credible deterrent” redundant in the face of the capa¬ appropriate confidence-building measures, provided U.S. bilities being developed and deployed by China. This nonproliferation policy permits, to alleviate die fallout of threat comes in the form of the imposition of restrictive this incidental capability. technology transfer regimes (such as the Australia New Delhi recognizes that it is in the common inter¬ Club, the London Club, the Wassenaar Arrangement, ests of both India and the U.S. to ensure diat their strate¬ the Missile Technology Control Regime, etc.) and the gic competencies do not facilitate proliferation to other manipulation of the arms control regime by the devel¬ states and non-state entities. It is similarly in the interest oped countries, which would prefer to see India’s of bodi parties to institutionalize a practicable fissile mate¬ nuclear potential wither in keeping with the basic rial control regime that would deny access to fissile mate¬ tenets of the NPT — i.e., limiting nuclear weapons rials to possible proliferators and cap their own inventories capabilities to the five original nuclear weapon states. at a level diat would ensure die continued efficacy of their

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strategic forces, maritime propulsion assets and other ties. Modifications to India’s strategic forces would, strategic systems. India has taken active measures to deny perforce, be limited to meeting the regional threat and nuclear weapons technology, materials and equipment to therefore have no bearing on U.S. national interests. non-nuclear weapon states through suitable controls on In conclusion, India fully recognizes that the world national assets, a credible export control regime and a today is markedly unipolar, with the U.S. the single matching enforcement policy. superpower, and therefore it needs to understand how Each country has security concerns for which it Washington views India’s role in this strategic scenario exercises its sovereign prerogative to formulate, devel¬ so that it can be sensitive to American concerns. At the op and implement specific policies and capabilities. same time the U.S., with its exponential power quo¬ If tire U.S. has come to the determination that it needs tient, is expected to understand the legitimate concerns to create a suitable national missile defense system in of the states to which it relates. New Delhi unabashed¬ deference to its national security interests, India is not ly acknowledges the pre-eminence of the U.S. and one to be critical, especially as such a defensive mea¬ expects to develop a positive relationship with sure does not impinge directly on its national security. Washington — but in doing so it cannot abdicate its By the same logic, India reserves its sovereign right to sovereign responsibility to secure the state’s national upgrade its own strategic capabilities to meet the interests by all means necessary, including nuclear changes in the regional nuclear environment diat may weaponry, over which it has unqualified control. The be brought about by China as a consequence of its per¬ nuclear threat is real and live — a threat that requires ceptions of the impact of the U.S. national missile India to generate and field the means to defend itself defense system on its own nuclear weapons capabili¬ without falling back on external beneficence. ■

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54 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/OC TO B E R 2002 PALESTINE: THE PROBLEM AND THE PROSPECT

ALL PARTIES TO THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT, INCLUDING ARAB AND WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND THE U.N., NEED TO TAKE CONCRETE STEPS TO HELP BRING PEACE TO

THE MIDDLE EAST. BUT ABOVE ALL, THE U.S. MUST LEAD.

BY TERRELL E. ARNOLD

he brutality of Palestinian and Israeli ble unless it takes into account dre severe imbalances that T actions since the second intifada exist between the capabilities, actions and situations of the began two years ago, and especially Israelis and the Palestinians. during the past few months, has It is important to have a clear fix on how this situation focused world attention on finding canre about, because, as is often the case, the remedies ways to stop tire cycle of death and are tied irrevocably to understanding and treatment of the destruction in Palestine. Widespread causes. agreement exists that the only way out of the conflict is an The diplomatic and legal starting point for dre creation of approach that recognizes tire interests of both parties, Israel was the Balfour Declaration of Nov. 2, 1917. In that includes restraint from both sides, and is aimed at a com¬ document, British Foreign Secretary Arthur James (Lord) prehensive peace settlement. However, no solution is possi- Balfour gave the following ground rules to tire British Zionist Federation: Terrell Arnold entered the Foreign Service in 1957, retiring “His Majesty’s Government view with favor the estab¬ from the Senior Foreign Service in 1984 with the rank of min¬ lishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish peo¬ ister counselor. Among his many overseas postings, he served ple, and will use dreir best endeavors to facilitate dre as economic officer in Cairo (1960-61), economic and consular achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that officer in Calcutta (1962-64), economic and commercial coun¬ nothing shall be done ivhich may prejudice the civil and reli¬ selor in Manila (1971-75) and consul general in Sao Paulo gious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine (1978-80). In Washington, he was chairman of the [my italics], or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews Department of International Studies at the National War in any otirer country.” College (1981-83) and deputy director of the Office of While he no doubt was acting to safeguard broader Counterterrorism (1983-84), among other assignments. Since British colonial interests in taking tiris approach, Lord his retirement, he has been one of the chief emergency man¬ Balfour stated the correct principles for building tire new agement trainers for the Depa rtment of State and has provid¬ state. But he failed to anticipate how the process would ed crisis management, performance ineasurement and other unfold in practice. Instead of recognizing Palestine as the consulting services to State and many other federal agencies. home of tire people who had lived there for centuries, tire Arnold is co-author of Fighting Back: Winning tire War League of Nations treated the Balfour Declaration as a man¬ Against Terrorism (DC Heath, 1986), author of The Violence date that, while specifying no timetable, gave the Jewish Formula: Why People Lend Sympathy and Support to people — a small minority in Palestine at the time — a Terrorism (DC Heath, 1988) and co-author of Terrorism: The national home, if drey could achieve a majority of tire popu¬ New Warfare (Walker 0 Company, 1988) a high-school text¬ lation. The triumph of the Israelis and tire tragedy of the book. A regular speaker on terrorism and violence issues in the Palestinians began widr dre way tire Zionist Federation and Department of State’s Elderhostel lecture series, he often later tire leadership of Israel carried out the mandate. speaks to service club and university audiences about terror¬ To achieve and retain a majority of tire population, ism and violence in society. Zionist organizations encouraged mass Jewish migrations to

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 55 Palestine, mainly from Central Arafat’s inability to stop the suicide Europe. They also forcefully, and bombings has been a continuing sometimes violendy, started removing Lord Balfour stated the bone of contention for the Israelis, Palestinians from all areas of Palestine who cite his earlier history of out¬ west of the Jordan River. These tac¬ correct principles for right opposition to the very exis¬ tics were applied well before the Arab- tence of Israel. As a result, despite Israeli wars that began soon after Israel building the new state of his key role in earlier peace efforts, was declared a state in 1948, and they Arafat appears less than ideal for are still common practice. Israel 85 years ago. But controlling extremists or for pursu¬ The Zionist program was so effec¬ ing any future peace process. tive that by mid-1955, there were he failed to anticipate The Israelis, for their part, use 1,200,000 Jews in Israel, compared the suicide bombings as a justifica¬ widi only 50,000 or so Jewish resi¬ how the process would tion for systematic and often indis¬ dents at the time the Balfour criminate action against Palestinians Declaration was issued. By diat same unfold in practice. in general. In the process, over the year, about 750,000 Palestinians (by past several months, the Israel U.N. estimates) had been displaced, Defense Forces have given us all a mainly into refugee camps in the valuable lesson: Although the IDF is West Bank and Gaza. Their numbers National Interests said by experts to be among the top have steadily grown since then: in The Israelis, the Palestinians, military forces in the world, it has 2001, the United Nations reported Arab and Western governments, and demonstrated conclusively the limi¬ approximately three million regis¬ the United Nations all share varying tations of formal military power as a tered Palestinian refugees in die West degrees of responsibility for die fail¬ defense against terrorism. Despite Bank and Gaza, compared widi a total ure to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian wrecking much of the West Bank Israeli population of about 6.3 mil¬ conflict and address its human costs. and Gaza, the IDF has failed to stop lion, predominantly Jews. An addi¬ The U.S. has always favored Israel in the suicide bombers, who continue tional 800,000 Palestinian refugees the condict and still does. Arab gov¬ to target the Israeli public precisely are resident in die contiguous states ernments favor the Palestinians but because they lack tire numbers or of Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt. have done little to help them move the weapons to face the military. More than 60 percent of the toward the command of their situa¬ The enormous differences in die Palestinians are under die age of 18. tion that would facilitate statehood. economic, managerial and war-fight¬ They have limited economic and edu¬ Especially since the Camp David ing capabilities of the two parties cational opportunities. They are accords, U.S. assistance of more underlie much of the conflict. These extremely vulnerable to recruitment, dian $3 billion per year has been differences enable the Israelis to con¬ indoctrination and training by provided to Israel. By comparison, trol die lives and destinies of die extremists. very little aid has been provided to Palestinians, as seen in the systematic Making matters worse, even the Palestinians, either by the expulsion of the Palestinians from diough die West Bank and Gaza are United States, Arab governments or their homes and property, in the nominally under die jurisdiction of the U.N. The resulting institutional assassination of Palestinian activists, the Palestine National Authority, and human underdevelopment has and in the ongoing creation and Israel exercises critical control over severely limited the ability of the expansion of Jewish settlements in die conditions in bodi sectors. Twice in Palestinian leadership to cariy out West Bank. Such actions are at the die past decade, for stated security its responsibilities. root of much of die hatred, uncertain¬ reasons, the Israelis sharply curtailed Lacking strong and widely ty and frustration felt by Palestinians. traffic between Palestinian and Israeli approved leadership, the Palestinian In the worst sense, these actions areas, causing abrupt and severe dam¬ National Authority not only has inspire die suicide bombers and other age to die Palestinian economy. equivocated over efforts to suppress extremists at a personal level tiiat is Recent curfews and denials of border the ongoing series of suicide bomb¬ hard for leadership to control. crossings for workers in Israel have ings, but also has shown itself inca¬ Meanwhile, in the midst of die compounded die problems of unem¬ pable of controlling its extremists current chaos, it is easy to forget that ployment, malnutrition of the young, (e.g., Hamas and the Al-Aqsa many of the longstanding interests and general frustration. Brigade). PNA Chairman Yasser of die United States and the West in

56 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O V RN AL! O C TO B E R 2002 the Middle East would exist even in Once that is done, the next step own Christian minority. Finally, the absence of a Palestine conflict. will be to define and stabilize the they would also like to establish their But resolving that dispute is key to boundaries of the Palestinian state capital in the Muslim sector of assuring successful pursuit of those and Israel. Washington must then Jerusalem. larger political, economic and reli¬ help both parties create an environ¬ Israel. The Israelis want to pre¬ gious concerns; ment in which each party views the serve their national identity, and The U.S. The most immediate other as an equal and without fear. some of them want this to be a U.S. interest is helping to shut down Such tasks mean the U.S. must stay Jewish state. They also want to be a conflict that has become a serious involved in the process; just helping free of threats and attacks, and to be and escalating generator of hatred the parties to the first day of peace treated as an equal by their Middle against Americans and the United will not be good enough. Eastern neighbors as well as by the States. Toward that end, Washington The Palestinians. The funda¬ rest of the world community. Those must do what it can to cut off fuel to mental goals of the Palestinians are aims are hard to argue with. But the conflict by working with other to establish and govern a state of other objectives of the current gov¬ governments to limit the flow of their own, and to enjoy free and ernment are less defensible. It seeks weapons to both sides. It also must unencumbered access to and from permanent, unchallenged bound¬ play a strong diplomatic role to get their own exclusive territory, includ¬ aries around as much land as possi¬ the parties to back off and to shut ing freedom of movement between ble, including all of the West Bank down the terrorism generators on the West Bank and Gaza. They want and Gaza, and as much control of both sides of the conflict. Such to be free of interference in their water resources as it can get. It intervention will have the further internal affairs, and to be recognized seeks to avoid either a return of the benefit of convincing both parties and treated as equals by other states. Palestinians whom Israelis have dis¬ and the international community They seek free access to both placed or compensation for the land that the United States is seeking a Christian and Muslim sites in taken. And it wants Jerusalem as fair and equitable solution. Jerusalem to accommodate their Israel’s exclusive capital. Such a

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 57 tire peace process in Palestine will The Irene T. Harter be closely watched by die whole Memorial Fund The enormous world for signs of just how well, or how badly, die rights of both parties, The Irene T. differences in the but particularly the underdog Palestinians, fare in any setdement. Harter Memorial economic, managerial Fund will enable The Tasks Ahead highly qualified and war-fighting As die Palestinians see it now, scholars from dieir safety and survival depend on outside the United capabilities of the two the decisions, even die whims, of a States to participate in cutting-edge hostile government. Thus, to shut research aimed at improving parties underlie much of down the terrorism generators and to treatment for victims of stop die suicide bombers, die highest Myelodysplastic Syndrome. This the conflict. single priority today is to change die rare disease results when the bone conditions that sustain tiiat percep¬ marrow overproduces cells that do tion. Toward tiiat end, the tasks for not mature properly. die next several montiis are clear. Fellows will be selected by the dream is not attainable without Moderate the extremists. Botii trampling the rights of the die Palestinians and the Israelis must internationally renowned Palestinians and engendering moderate their extremists. For exam¬ Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) unremitting bloodshed, but Israelis, ple, die recent furor about Arafat’s Center at the Rush-Presbyterian-St. or at least the hard-liners, have yet to abortive bid to bring Hamas into his Luke’s Medical Center in Chicago recognize this reality. government shows a lack of political on the basis of Arab governments. Most Arab feel for die situation. Instead of criti¬ demonstrated governments have asserted they cizing such steps, Israel should achievement in would accept any diplomatic solu¬ encourage them. After all, it followed research and/or tion reached by the Palestinian lead¬ tire same approach earlier in its histo¬ treatment of ership. However, their interests ry, bringing Menachem Begin and Myelodysplasia. hardly end there. They also want to Ariel Sharon, as well as otiier mem¬ Irene T. “Mickie” Harter, wife of see a political and economic regime bers of the Irgmi and Stem terrorist John Harter, FSO retired, died on in Jerusalem that recognizes the groups, into the government in die February 10, 2002. This fund interests of Muslims worldwide, hope of moderating their behavior including free access to Islamic holy (admittedly with mixed results). honors her strong spirit and places for their people. This pattern There are no guarantees tins strategy perseverance to find a cure, so of interests no doubt underlies their will enable Arafat (or any successor) others might benefit. support for the proposal made by to coopt Hamas, but it is well worth YOUR TAX-DEDUCTIBLE Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah earli¬ trying. CONTRIBUTIONS MAY BE er this year. Under that proposal, For their part, Israels leaders have SENT TO: Israel would return to its pre-1967 regularly used violence to achieve The Irene T. Harter war boundaries in exchange for national interests. In addition to Memorial Fund diplomatic recognition by all Arab bloody attacks against the British in c/o Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke’s governments die lead-up to independence, they Medical Center Other interested parties. used terrorist tactics to convince die 1700 West Van Buren, Suite 250 Chicago, IL 60612-3244 Mushms now comprise about one- Palestinians to leave their land (e.g., sixth of the world population, and a the attack on the village of Qibya in large number of them are neither 1953). Similarly, the assassination of For further information, contact Linda Testin, Arabs nor citizens of Arab countries. Palestinian militants has long been a at the Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke’s Interest in access to the holy places matter of official policy. For the state Medical Center at of Islam is therefore as global as the of Israel to survive and prosper, its (312) 942-6112 or Christian interest in Jerusalem. And future leadership must reject such E-mail: [email protected] in a broader sense, the outcome of methods.

58 FOREIGN SERVICE jOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 Stop Israeli incursions. The other attacks on Israeli civilians. Such Sharon government insists that its violence allows Israel to assert that all military incursions into the West Bank Many of the long¬ Palestinians are terrorists or terrorist and Gaza are necessary to fight ter¬ sympathizers, which superficially rorism, but the deliberate social disin¬ standing interests of the excuses IDF attacks on Palestinian tegration and economic disruption civilians. But for Arafat and the PNA they have caused only undermine United States and the to succeed in shutting down Hamas Arafat’s authority, strengthen the and other groups, the Israelis need to extremists, and retaliation by West in the Middle East halt military incursions, assassinations militants, including new suicide and settlement activity. bombers. The Israelis then cite those would exist even in the Get on with the transition. attacks to justify the next round of Delay is destructive. The longer it harsh military reprisals, which pre¬ absence of a Palestine takes to resolve die Palestine ques¬ dictably engender more Palestinian tion, the more likely it is that further violence. This vicious cycle is self- conflict. terrorist attacks will occur. Moreover, defeating, as die economy of force use the more remote a prospect factor is on the side of the Palestinian statehood appears to be, Palestinians, not die Israelis. die more excuses and opportunities It should be obvious that, after die Israelis peace more quickly and Israelis and Jews from outside Israel, four generations of refugee status, the surely dian any military campaign in including the United States, have to Palestinians will neither leave tiieir the West Bank. expand existing settlements and con¬ land voluntarily nor desist from fight¬ Shut down Palestinian attacks. struct new ones, thereby rendering ing back. A graceful backing-off by The Palestine National Authority an already volatile situation steadily both parties under a framework such must persuade its population to more explosive. as the Abdullah proposal would buy refrain from suicide bombings and Define national borders. The

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 59 boundaries of Israel and Palestine thus are not returnable. While com¬ must be defined, recognized and pensation is hardly the same as the respected by both sides. So-called right of return, some combination of buffer zones that go beyond the the two measures may pave the way agreed-upon lines cannot be permit¬ for permanent resolution of the ted, and fences, which have figured overall conflict. in recent internal Israeli debate about Restore the Palestinian infra¬ how to “contain” tire Palestinians, are structure. The primary effect of a perverse notion on their face. For the Israeli attacks has been the die Israelis to build and maintain a destruction of Palestinian places of fence around the West Bank and business, government offices and Gaza is in the same class with creat¬ other infrastructure, educational ing an enclosure or prison com¬ and cultural facilities, and medical pound to house a subject popula¬ services. Beginning immediately, the tion. It would say that the United Nations should take the lead Palestinians have no rights, they can in marshaling the resources and be confined without any processes expanding or initiating the programs of law, and they can be kept that way necessary to rebuild infrastructure at the whim of their neighbors. and stabilize and improve the living By contrast, much if not all of the conditions of the Palestinian people. present conflict could be dealt with Remove the settlements. if diose boundaries were in place Even though removal of the settle¬ and accepted. Above all, the very ments in the West Bank and Gaza is launch of serious negotiations an absolute requirement of any toward that end would give the peace agreement likely to be accept¬ Palestinian leadership strong argu¬ ed by the Palestinians, Israelis con¬ ments with which to counsel tinue to start new settlements in the patience and deprive extremists of Occupied Territories and to expand support. the older ones. This provokes con¬ Get rid of the “refugee” label. tinuous clashes between Pales¬ The label “refugee” itself is a great tinians and Jewish settlers, many of barrier to stabilizing the situation. whom are American citizens or have Thinking of oneself as a displaced vocal friends and relatives living in person creates an unhealthy sense of the United States. Their lobby will uncertainty and insecurity that be fractious when the settlements interferes with living and planning, have to be closed, but perhaps because nothing is seen as perma¬ Palestinians whose properties were nent. confiscated earlier could move into In addition, the Israelis must these settlements in lieu of other either find some basis of agreement compensation. Such an outcome wit! i the Palestinians on the issue of could greatly facilitate the peace return, which is still on the United process. Nations agenda, or move on to com¬ Resolve long-term economic pensation for confiscated property, issues. Many of the borders Israel which is a longstanding subject of wishes to keep relate to access to and U.N. General Assembly Resolution control over water. The present dis¬

194. tribution of that resource is heavily In practice, it may be that many weighted toward the Israelis, not only of the Palestinian properties taken in absolute terms but also in per-capi- over in the earlier years have been ta water use terms. Any long-term torn down and turned into shopping resolution of the present conflict has malls, roads and other facilities, and to focus on redistributing access to

60 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 water in this very parched region on a ments, must work immediately to basis that is equitable for all of its identify the victims of trauma in the inhabitants. However, even with a The longer it takes region and undertake counseling and fairer distribution of supplies, more treatment. water will be needed to sustain to resolve the Palestine The U.S. must lead. A peaceful growth, and large-scale desalination future in the Middle East requires of seawater is probably necessary. question, the more accommodation by everyone in¬ Ideas for regional cooperative action volved, based on principles of fair¬ such as desalination of seawater have likely it is that further ness, equity and mutual respect. But been proposed for the the parties to this dispute do not pos¬ Palestine/Jordan Valley region for terrorist attacks sess equal power, wealth or capabili¬ more than 50 years. The peace ties — leaving a gap that has to be process is a good place to revisit such will occur. bridged by the careful, realistic inter¬ proposals. vention of the United States and other Settle the status of Jerusalem. interested governments. The 1948 United Nations partition of If Washington, in particular, does Palestine included three compo¬ of the major effects of Israeli raids and not exert strong leadership that is nents: the state of Israel, Palestine Palestinian suicide bombings is an attentive to both sets of interests, the and the Holy Places. None of the accumulation of potentially destruc¬ situation will fester, and the terrorism three religions that have an historic tive trauma in both populations. If generators that brought us the Sept. interest in die Holy Places can claim a untreated, this legacy will perpetuate 11 attacks will flourish without unique right to them, so the U.N. the cycle of violence on both sides, restraint. And sooner or later the should take on the task of administer¬ with terrible consequences. Israeli combination of hate, frustration and ing these sites for all humankind. and Palestinian leaders, as well as the resentment will unleash a weapon of Deal with human trauma. One U.N. and interested national govern¬ mass destruction. ■

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OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 61 APPRECIATION

RICHARD I. QUEEN 1951-2002

Richard Ivan Queen, 51, a Pahlavi, who had been admitted to health continued to deteriorate, die retired Foreign Service officer, died the U.S. for medical treatment. The range of assignments he could Aug. 14 at his home in Falls Church, U.S. refused and eventually severed accept was limited, and he retired in Va., of complications related to mul¬ diplomatic relations with Iran. 1995 after serving as a consular offi¬ tiple sclerosis. He was among the 66 On July 11, 1980, Iran’s revolu¬ cer in the Office of American Americans taken hostage by Islamic tionary leader, the Ayatollah Citizen Services in Washington. militants at the U.S. embassy in Ruhollah Khomeini, ordered Mr. Mr. Queen’s marriage to Moire Tehran in 1979. He was held captive Queens release. As Mr. Queen later MacDonald ended in divorce. He is for 250 days, a third of that in a dark said, “They were afraid of having a survived by his brother, Alexander, and windowless basement room, and dead hostage.” A short time later, the and mother, Jeanne Queen, of Stone was released only when worsening deposed shah died. Finally, on Jan. Ridge, N.Y. symptoms of what would later be 20, 1981, after protracted negotia¬ diagnosed as multiple sclerosis con¬ tions between Iranian representa¬ “THE BEST IN THE vinced Iranian doctors that he tives and officials of the outgoing required sophisticated medical care. Carter administration, the rest of the FOREIGN SERVICE...” Mr. Queen was born in hostages were freed, after 444 days When asked about his experi¬ Washington, D.C., and grew up in in captivity. ence, Richard Queen is reported to Westchester County, N.Y. He grad¬ Later that year, Mr. Queen pub¬ have said that he was in the wrong uated from Hamilton College in lished a book about his experiences, place at the wrong time, but that he Clinton, N.Y., in 1973 and then stud¬ Hostage to Iran, Hostage to Myself also had chosen to go. That well ied Eastern European histoiy at the (G.P. Putnam, 1981), in which he exemplifies what kind of person he University of Michigan, where he described the ordeal. In March was — a classic example of the best received a master’s degree. 1980, he had been moved from the in the Foreign Service: a dedicated, Joining the Foreign Service in basement to quarters in the competent, outgoing public servant, 1978, Mr. Queen was posted to the embassy’s chancery. He organized a a proud and patriotic American. consulate in Isfahan, Iran. It was library from stored books of the When I knew him in Tehran, closed as the revolution heated up, closed Tehran American School, and however briefly, he was a tall and and in July 1979 he was reassigned spent hours reading. Rut he also robust young man, excited about to Tehran as a consular officer, an began to experience tingling sensa¬ being there, however difficult and assignment he had requested. He tions, dizziness, double vision and often tedious was his assignment at “wanted to be a witness to history,” difficulty coordinating movement — the visa window, day after day. The he said, and “thought it would be symptoms of the onset of his MS. next time I saw him, he was among extremely exciting to go to a country Following his release, Mr. Queen those who welcomed the rest of us in revolution.” met regularly with die families and home in January 1981. Just four months after he started friends of the remaining hostages. I watched him in the years since, work in Tehran, Islamic militants He resumed his Foreign Service as he gradually succumbed to the seized the U.S. embassy compound, career, going to London as a con¬ ravages of the terrible illness that has and took the hostages, demanding sular officer in 1981. The following now caused his death. He said once that the U.S. return to Iran the year he was posted to Toronto, drat he bore no grudge against those deposed Shah Mohammad Reza where he served until 1985. As his who held him hostage, and I respect

62 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 his memory for that — however “TEHRAN TESTED “WE HONOR HIM... much I find it difficult to share that RICHARD TWICE...” AND TREASURE judgment. Richard Queens life and death Tehran tested Richard twice: first, HIS MEMORY” are testimony to todays scourge of for several months on the visa line, and All of us who were his colleagues terrorism, whose roots lie in the then as a captive for 250 days. Both respected him for many things, but Iranian Revolution of 1979. were tough, but Richard acquitted two in particular stand out: first, his Subjected to the isolation and abuse himself magnificendy in both circum¬ willingness to serve his country in a that surely contributed to the illness stances. difficult place; and second, his lack that in time caused Inis death, his As a vice consul he was always of bitterness or rancor about his passing is a reminder of the Tehran courteous, patient, and professional. Tehran experience. He was once regimes culpability in that hostage When we reopened our consular sec¬ quoted as saying, “It happened to crisis, which it has never adequately tion in early September, after an eight- me, but I will not let it get to me.” acknowledged, much less offered month closure, Richard and his col¬ He showed courage, dedication, or compensation. leagues faced over 30,000 applicants. and devotion to duty and country. — Arnb. Bruce Richard had a wonderful curiosity We, his colleagues, honor him for Laingen, about Iran and things Iranian, and I this, lament his passing, and will fellow hostage remember some of our discussions continue to treasure his memory. about diat country and its rich culture — Amb. Ruth A. Davis,

“EMPATHY AND A DESIRE and history. Persian was a challenge, Director General of however, and a few months at FSI left the Foreign Service, FOR PUBLIC SERVICE...” him still struggling with the language. Aug. 20, 2002, from A warm, open personality, a real In a memorable moment, Richard a letter to Alexander interest in people and other cul¬ nearly brought the entire consular Queen on the death tures, and empathy made it possible operation to a halt. Interviewing a of his brother, for Richard to understand the point student visa applicant, he wanted to Richard. of view of others. When coupled tell the young man that his grade

with a desire for public service and point average (mo’adel) was inade¬ “WE TRULY REGRET real ambition to succeed he was able quate. Unfortunately he replaced to cope with the bane of many first- “mo’adel” with “maadar,” and the HIS PASSING...” tour officers — working on a high- sentence came out, “I’m sorry I can¬ Not only during the hostage crisis volume, high-refusal visa assignment not give you a visa. Your mother is in Iran, but throughout his entire without losing his perspective. inadequate.” The baffled applicant Foreign Service career, Richard rep¬ These same attributes and a quiet could never quite figure out why he resented the best of American diplo¬ pride in his country served him well did not get the visa. macy, and we truly regret his passing as a hostage, allowing him to interact Had tragedy not struck, I think from us. with his captors without falling into Richard would have had a great tour The thoughts and prayers of the the Stockholm Syndrome. As a in Tehran. It is a shame that the dou¬ State Department are with you and result he was, in large part, responsi¬ ble calamities of the hostage crisis your family. ble for probably the only positive and illness changed so much for this — Colin L. Powell, morale factor for the hostages, the wonderful young man. U. S. Secretary of organization of the library for their —John Limbert, State, from a use. Ambassador to personal letter to — Richard Morefield, Mauritania, Richard’s brother, FSO, fellow hostage fellow hostage Alexander. ■

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 63 IN MEMORY

William Osgood Boswell. 88, Mr. Boswell was a former president Stephen Squires, her son-in law; retired FSO, died on Aug. 8 at his of the American Foreign Service Kellen Stellmacher-Squires, her home in Bethesda, Md. Association, a member of the board of grandson; and Kyla Stellmacher- Mr. Boswell was bom on Oct. 24, directors of both DACOR (Diplomatic Squires, her granddaughter. 1913, at Vancouver Barracks, Wash., and Consular Officers, Retired) and die son of Col. Walter O. Boswell, U.S. the Ross Mountain Club of New Army, and Anne Dekker Orr of Florence, Pa. Pittsburgh, Pa. He was a graduate of He is survived by his wife, Janine William Rex Crawford, Jr., 74, Phillips Academy, Andover and Werner Boswell, five sons (including retired FSO, and twice ambassador, Stanford University, where he received former FSOs Steven and Eric Boswell) died Aug. 4 at his summer home in his bachelors degree in 1936. and four grandchildren. Greensboro, Vt. He had cancer. After two years in private business, Mr. Crawford, who resided in Mr. Boswell joined the Foreign Service Washington, was bom in Philadelphia. in 1939 and was assigned to Le Havre As a child, he accompanied his father, a as a vice consul. After a brief return to Maiy Stellinacher, 82, wife of professor of sociology at the University the then-Foreign Service School in retired FSO Edward Stellmacher, of of Pennsylvania, on tours as an Washington, he was posted to Tucson, Ariz., died on June 21 of pan¬ exchange professor in France and Martinique (and Georgetown, British creatic cancer. She accompanied her Chile, and as cultural attache at die Guiana) for a few months in early 1941. husband of 58 years, Edward, on U.S. embassy in Rio de Janeiro. Mr. He was transferred to Lisbon as third assignment to Cali, Guatemala City, Crawford received his bachelors secretary later that year. In early 1945 Juarez, Piedras Negras, Munich, degree from Harvard University in he joined the staff of the Supreme Manila and Hermosillo. 1949 and an M.A. in Middle East stud¬ Allied Commander, Mediterranean Mrs. Stellmacher will be remem¬ ies from the University of Pennsylvania Theater, as political advisor. bered by her family and by everyone in 1950. He also studied at the Institut Following World War II, Mr. who knew her as a true goodwill ambas¬ des Langues Orientates Vivantes in Boswell was posted to Vienna in 1946 sador, who dedicated her life and career Paris. He served as an ensign in the and promoted to second secretary and to her husband and her family. She U.S. Navy from 1948 to 1949. consul. In 1947 he was transferred to devoted herself to her role as diplomats Entering tire Foreign Service in Paris. He returned to Washington in wife, and her culinaiy talents ■will be 1950, Mr. Crawford was posted to 1950, and in 1953 was sent to Rome as remembered by all fortunate enough to Jeddah as a political officer and then, in first secretary. Two years later, he was attend a function diat she and her hus¬ 1953, transferred to Venice as a vice assigned to Milan as consul general. band hosted. Marys gourmet cooking consul. He studied Arabic at die He was a member of die 1958-59 and Edwards musical talents comple¬ Foreign Service Institute in 1955, con¬ Senior Seminar class, and became mented each other, and combined to tinuing his efforts at the FSI language director of the Office of Security in make a memorable and positive event school in Beimt in 1956. In 1957 he 1959. In 1962 he was sent to Cairo as for host-country citizens as well as received a dual assignment, to tire deputy chief of mission with the per¬ members of die diplomatic community. British colony and protectorate of sonal rank of minister. He returned to She is greatiy missed by her family: Aden as principal officer and to Taiz, die department in 1965 and held sev¬ Edward, her spouse; Phillip tire seasonal capital of die Imamate of eral personnel assignments. His last Stellmacher, her son; Linda Yemen, as charge d’affaires. position before he retired in 1970 was Stellmacher-Lester, her daughter; He returned to Washington in director of die Office of International James Lester, her son-in-law; Barbara 1959, was assigned to die Lebanon Conferences. Stellmacher-Squires, her daughter; desk in 1962, and was promoted to

64 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 IN MEMORY

serve as director of the Office of Israeli Sue Merrick Maule, 69, wife of officer in the U.S. Navy overseas Affairs in 1963. He received the retired FSO Robert W. (Bill) Maule, from 1942 to 1946. William A. Jump Award for outstand¬ died on Aug. 4 in Bremerton, Wash., After joining the Foreign Service ing government service in that year. alter a three-month battle with pancre¬ in 1947, Mr. McKesson was posted to In 1964 he was posted to Rabat as atic cancer. Reykjavik. Pie returned to political counselor. Returning to the Mrs. Maule was bom in Seattle. Washington and was detailed to tire U.S. in 1967, he spent a year at She met her husband at Pomona Economic Cooperation Adminis¬ Princeton University as a Woodrow College in California, from which both tration, a predecessor of USAID, in Wilson Fellow. In 1968, he was graduated. She also earned a masters 1948. In 1949 he was assigned to assigned to Nicosia as deputy chief of degree in botany from the University study German affairs at Columbia mission. of Minnesota. University, and was posted to Berlin Mr. Crawford returned to Yemen Mrs. Maule accompanied, and as an economic officer in 1951 and to in 1972 as ambassador. In 1974, fol¬ assisted, her husband on assignments Bonn as a political officer two years lowing the assassination of to Brussels, Baghdad, Port-au-Prince, later. In 1954 he was transferred to Ambassador Rodger P. Davies in Vienna, Beirut, Montreal, London and Saigon, again serving as a political offi¬ Nicosia, he was transferred there to back again to Montreal, where Mr. cer. In 1957 he was posted to Paris. succeed him. His tenure in Nicosia, Maule served as consul general. She He returned to Washington to work in begun in the wake of the Turkish was active in community affairs at Personnel in 1962. He was selected invasion and occupation of the north¬ every post. Her linguistic ability and to study at tire National War College. ern third of the island, was marked by her interest in music helped her play Soon thereafter, in 1963, he was heightened tension between the an important role in the representation assigned to Dakar as deputy chief of Greek and Turkish communities and of the countr)-' abroad. In Montreal mission, concurrently accredited to great strain in relations among she founded a small musical group, Bathurst (now Banjul) as consul. In Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the U.S. Octet Plus, which continues success¬ 1967 he became director of the Office He retired in 1980 as senior deputy fully to this day. of Central African Affairs at the assistant secretary of State in the After retirement she and her hus¬ Department of State. His last assign¬ Bureau of Near Eastern and South band divided their time among homes ment before he retired in 1975 was as Asian Affairs. in Washington, Vancouver Island and ambassador to Gabon. After retirement, Mr. Crawford Portugal, interspersed with extensive Following retirement, Mr. served as executive director of the world travel. McKesson lived in New York City. National Committee to Honor the Mrs. Maule is survived by her hus¬ He was a vice president of the 14th Centenary of Islam, and as pres¬ band Robert, her sister Jean, daughter French firm Sentimeg, which man¬ ident of the Eisenhower Fellow¬ Alison, son Brian, foster daughter aged projects in Africa, from 1975 to ships, a Philadelphia-based interna¬ Mary, and eight grandchildren. Her 1979. He then taught international tional leadership exchange program. daughters Michele and Andrea prede¬ relations at New York University He also sang with the Washington ceased her. from 1983 until the mid-1990s. An Opera and the Washington Cathedral avid collector of African art and arti¬ Choral Society. facts, he served as assistant editor of Mr. Crawfords first wife, the for¬ the quarterly magazine Art d’Afrique mer Virginia Vollrath Lowry, whom John Alexander McKesson III, Noire from 1978 to 2000. he married in 1950, died in 1987. 80, retired FSO and ambassador, died Mr. McKesson’s wife, Ema Jensson He is survived by his second wife, May 21 in New York City. McKesson, died several years ago in Celia Faulkner Crawford; a daugh¬ Mr. McKesson was bom in New Paiis. He is survived by a son, John A. ter from his first marriage, Sarah York. He received a degree from the McKesson IV of New York. Crawford-Najafi of France; two Lycee Janson in Paris in 1939, a stepsons, Winthrop T. Clevenger bachelors degree from Columbia and Peter R. Clevenger, both of New University in 1941, and a masters York; a brother, Dr. John Crawford; degree from the same institution in Stella Elizabeth Davis, 85, a and a grandchild. 1942. He served as an intelligence retired FSO with USIA, died July 13 at

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 65 / /V M E M 0 R Y

die Magnolia Retirement Center in was assigned to Addis Ababa as a pub¬ positions. She served as cultural Albany, Ga. lic affairs assistant. She joined USIA affairs officer in Accra from 1967 to Ms. Davis was a native of Albany, in 1953 during her assignment to 1971, and then as public affairs officer the daughter of Donald Gunn and Nairobi. From 1956 to 1958 she in Addis Ababa. Ms. Davis retired in Bertha Mock Davis. She attended Mt. served as assistant press officer in 1973 to return to Albany because of Holyoke College, and for career devel¬ Saigon. In early 1958 USIA selected the illness of her sister Helen. opment courses, die Johns Hopkins Ms. Davis for Swahili language train¬ Following retirement Ms. Davis School of Advanced International ing, and at the end of die year she was served as chairman of the Albany- Studies in Washington and the London posted to Dar es Salaam as branch Dougherty County Bi-Centennial School of Economics. Before joining public affairs officer. She received Committee, 1975-76, and was hon¬ die Department of State staff as a clerk several promotions there before ored for tiiis work as Albany’s Woman in 1943, she worked for die Albany returning to Washington in 1963 to of the Year for 1975. She was active in Chamber of Commerce, in the office work at USIA as an information spe¬ die Albany Museum of Art as a trustee of Georgia Senator Walter F. George, cialist. In that year she received a and docent, gifting her extensive col¬ as an advertising manager for Farrell superior service award from Edward lection of African ait and artifacts to Lines, Inc. of New York City, and for R. Murrow, dien director of USIA. In the museum and devoting many years the FBI. 1966 Ms. Davis received the Federal to teaching African-American children Pretoria was Ms. Davis’ first post¬ Womans Award as one of the six most about the art and culture of Africa. ing, from 1943 to 1945. In 1951 she effective women in senior federal Ms. Davis continued to travel to

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Go to www.afsa.org. click on the student tab (http://www.afsa.org/student.html).

66 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/OCTOBER 2002 IN MEMORY

many areas of the world during retire¬ Europe. In 1957 he became export also on the Visiting Committee for ment. For 25 years she spent sum¬ manager for Ranco Co., of Columbus, Athletics at Harvard and on the execu¬ mers at her shore-side cottage in Ohio, and later was International tive board of the Harvard Varsity Club. Sullivan, Maine. Ms. Davis was also a Division vice president of the Ohio In 1988, Mr. Birge was given the regular golfer, and member of the National Bank (Banc Ohio). Based in Harvard Club of Bostons Special Radium Country Club. A lifelong Brussels, Belgium, he represented die Award for his interest in and devotion Catholic, she was an active member of state of Ohio in Europe from 1975 to to Harvard atiiletics. And for all this, St. Teresas Church. 1980. Harvard awarded him an Honorary She is survived by her sister, Mrs. Mr. Birge served on Harvard’s Major Varsity H. Burr F. (Bert) Coleman; a nephew and Schools and Scholarships Committee, Mr. Birge is survived by his wife of his wife, Andrew and Cathy Coleman interviewing candidates for Harvard 35 years, Virginia (Ness); his sons, of Cheshire, Ct; a niece, Maura for more dian 40 years. In 1997 he Walter W. Birge III of Concord, Mass., Coleman of Cooperstown, N.Y.; and received the Hiram Hunn Memorial and Major Eric Hartman-Birge of two grandnephews and many cousins Schools and Scholarships Award, pre¬ Stuttgart; and three grandchildren. in the Albany area. sented nationally to die alumnus He is also survived by stepsons Brian whose work as a seeker of young talent Sweney, of Chicago, II., and Neil and interviewer is outstanding. He was Sweney, of Kingston, Mass. ■

Walter W. Birge, Jr., 89, retired Statement ot Ownership, Circulation Data Below: October 2002 15) FSO, died June 19 in Kingston, Mass. Management and Circulation Extent and Nature of Circulation: Average A native of St. Louis, Mo., he was (required by 39 U.S.C. 3685) Number of Copies of Each Issue During raised in Greenwich, Ct. and New Preceding 12 months: A. Total Number of York City. Mr. Birge graduated from 1) Publication Title: Foreign Service Copies: 13,000 B. Paid and/or Requested Journal 2) Publication No. 00157279 3) Filing Circulation: (1) Sales Through Dealers and the Groton School in 1931, and Date: October 1, 2002 4) Issue Frequency: Carriers, Street Vendors and Counter Sales: Harvard College in 1935. In 1935-36, monthly 5) Number of Issues Published 180 (2) Mail subscription: 11,527 C. Total Paid he worked as secretary to U.S. Annually: 11 6) Annual subscription price: and/or Requested Circulation: 11,707 D. Free Ambassador Weddell in Buenos Aires. $40.00 7) Complete Mailing Address of Known Distribution by Mail (Samples, Complimentary Office of Publication: 2101 E Street NW, and Other Free): 935 E. Free Distribution In 1937-38 he studied at the London Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 8) Complete Outside the Mail: 89 F. Total Free Distribution: School of Economics. Returning to Mailing Address of Headquarters of General 1024 G. Total Distribution: 12,731 H. Copies the U.S., he studied for the diplomat¬ Business Office of Publisher: 2101 E Street Not Distributed: (1) Office Use, Leftovers, NW, Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 9) Full Spoiled: 225 (2) Returns from News Agents: 4 ic service at the George Washington Names and Complete Mailing Addresses of I. Total: 12,956 J. Percent Paid and/or University from 1939 to 1940. Publisher, Editor and Associate Editor: Requested Circulation: 92% Actual Number of Mr. Birge joined the Foreign Publisher: American Foreign Service Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Service in 1941, and was posted to Association, 2101 E Street NW, Washington, Filing Date A. Total number of copies: 13,500 D.C. 20037-2990; Editor: Steven Alan Honley, B. Paid and/or Requested Circulation: (1) Sales Nuevo Laredo as vice consul. 2101 E Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037- Through Dealers and Carriers, Street Vendors Subsequent tours of duty took him to 2990; Associate Editor: Susan Maitra, 2101 E and Counter Sales: 180 (2) Mail subscription: Istanbul, Baghdad, Saudi Arabia, Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 10) II, 527 C. Total Paid and/or Requested Prague and Dakar. While in Prague, Owner: American Foreign Service Association, Circulation: 11,707 D. Free Distribution by 2101 E Street NW, Washington, D.C., 20037- Mail (Samples, Complimentary and Other he rowed for the Czech Rowing Club, 2990 11) Known Bondholders, Mortgagees, Free): 965 E. Free Distribution Outside the and after the communist takeover and Other Security Holders Owning or Holding Mail: 89 F. Total Free Distribution: 1054 G. there in 1948, was instrumental in 1 Percent of More of Total Amount of Bonds, Total Distribution: 12,731 H. Copies Not helping many to escape across tire bor¬ Mortgages or Other Securities: none 12) For Distributed: (1) Office Use, Leftovers, Spoiled: completion by non-profit organizations autho¬ 225 (2) Returns from News Agents: 4 Total: der to Germany, earning him die nick¬ rized to mail at special rates: the purpose, func¬ 12,761 Percent Paid and/or Requested name of ‘The Scarlet Pimpernel of tion and non-profit status of this organization Circulation: 92% Prague.” and the exempt status for Federal income tax purposes: (1) has not changed during preced¬ In 1953, Mr. Birge retired from die I certify that the statements made by me ing 12 months 13) Publication’s Name: above are correct and complete, (signed) Foreign Service to become director of Foreign Service Journal 14) Issue Date for Mikkeia Thompson, Business Manager the Czech division of Radio Free

OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 67 BOOKS

assumption diat all states act alike. Realists vs. Liberals Specifically, he takes the definition of a Mearsheimer sees the key realist variable — power — to The Tragedy of mean land power, die ability to occupy Great Power Politics United States as a docile, ground, noting that “large bodies of John J. Mearsheimer, W.W. Norton, water severely limited the power-pro¬ 2001, hardcover $27.95, 448 pages. status-quo power, jection capabilities of armies.” This interpretation explains why REVIEWED BY DAVID REUTHER not a global hegemon, England did not invade Europe dur¬ ing the 17th, 18tii or 19tii centuries These pages usually review books contrary to realist when all power indicators (and die on foreign policy, country studies, or predictions of Offensive Realism) sug¬ the personal adventures of journalists theory. gested it should have, and why or Foreign Service personnel. Rut Mearsheimer ranks die United States high above that cacophony reigns as a regional rather than a global hege¬ international relations theory, the sub¬ mon. But it also implies diat the U.S. ject of John J. Mearsheimers book, maximize its share of world power, is a docile, status-quo power, contrary The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. which means gaining power at the bodi to realist dieory and to how much As Mearsheimer explains, there are expense of other entities. And of the world, which also uses realist two major schools of international because there is no way to determine criteria, sees us. relations theory the “realist” and the how much power is enough, die ulti¬ Mearsheimer argues that the “liberal.” Tragedy is a bold and aggres¬ mate aim of die giants in the interna¬ “tragedy” in his tide refers to the sive presentation on behalf of the for¬ tional system is to be the hegemon — never-ending struggle for dominance mer camp, which contends that it the only great power in die system. among nation-states that inevitably doesn’t matter whether a country is Thus, there are “no status-quo powers leads to war. But a more accurate ruled by Mao, Roosevelt, Reagan or in die international system ... great reading is that realisms variables are Richelieu; what predicts state behav¬ powers are primed for offense.” too broad to be helpful and its securi¬ ior is the structure of the international What are theoretical strategies for ty dilemma becomes a self-fulfilling, system and tire power of its individual most states in die anarchic world of pessimistic prophecy where conflict is units: nation-states. what Mearsheimer calls “Offensive seen as something not to be managed Specifically Mearsheimers volume Realism?” Under his assumptions, and minimized, but a useful tool along targets the liberal schools claim that a appeasement and bandwagoning are die never-ending road to power. democratic peace means that security not useful for dealing widi states aspir¬ In fact, the dieoretical sleight of competition and war between the ing to be hegemons, for both “call for hand that keeps Americans from see¬ great powers have become “an obso¬ conceding power to a rival state.” He ing ourselves as others do, and as the lete enterprise.” The assumptions of sees only “balancing” (assuming die doctrine of realism requires — as an liberalism can be seen in die organiza¬ burden of checking die aggressor) or aggressive hegemon — is precisely tion of die State Department, which “buck-passing” (passing diat burden what causes us to be bewildered by has a Bureau of Democracy, Human on to odiers) as viable policies. foreign reaction to U.S. foreign policy. Rights and Labor reporting to an Mearsheimer rounds up the usual And that misperception may be the under secretary for global affairs. 20di-century powers for his data greatest tragedy of all. By contrast, realism postulates diat points: Japan, Germany, the Soviet every nation-state is solely responsible Union and Italy. He also adds Great David Reuther, a retired Foreign for its own survival in an anarchic Britain and the United States, but in a Service officer, is a member of the world. This requires each state to way that deviates from realisms AFSA Governing Board.

68 FOREIGN SERVICE J O IJ RN AL/O C TO B E R 2002 BOOKS

Calculating an ambassador, a better ambassador childless at age 40 (compared to 25 than I’ve been. But nobody else can be percent of men) diough only a small Tradeoffs my daughters’ mother.” proportion intended to be. This figure Amb. Chamberlin’s decision was rises to 49 percent of the highest- Creating A Life: poignant — and a great advertisement achievers (those earning over Professional Women and the for Sylvia Ann Hewlett’s Creating a $100,000 a year). This occurs because Quest for Children Life: Professional Women and the women tend to spend their time and Sylvia Ann Hewlett, Talk Miramax Quest for Children. energies in post-college work and Books, 2002, hardcover, $22.00, 334 Hewlett, a policy analyst and crit¬ graduate school during their 20s, dien pages. ically acclaimed author, actually set establishing a reputation witiiin an out to write a different book, one organization and working toward pro¬ REVIEWED BY TAMERA FILLINGER based on interviews with highly suc¬ motion, director, partner, etc. in their cessful women who were turning 50 30s. It is only then that many women When Wendy Chamberlin recently at die millennium. But when she dis¬ who have devoted primary attention to resigned as U.S. ambassador to covered that none of her subjects their career track realize that dieir Pakistan to return to Washington to had children (a source of great disap¬ chances for marriage and children, care for her daughters, she noted rue¬ pointment for the majority of them), especially die latter, are diminishing fully that it wasn’t a “career-enhancing that fact led her to the research that quickly. move.” But as she commented in an became Creating a Life. She also identifies odier factors that interview with The New York Times: She found that 42 percent of aggravate die problem, such as a stub¬ “There are many people who can be women in corporate America are bornly traditional division of labor at

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home and a fertility industry that lulls Although Hewlett’s And tandem couples face additional women into a false sense that they can problems. Beyond tire pressures of get pregnant deep into middle age. research focuses on the both employees finding career¬ Although Hewlett’s research focus¬ enhancing jobs at tire same post, what es on high-achieving women in the corporate world, the happens when the kids are evacuated? corporate world, the parallels to Hewlett ends her book with Foreign Service life are evident. It is parallels to Foreign detailed suggestions for government highly unusual for overseas FS person¬ and private sector initiatives to support nel to job-share or work a reduced- Service life are evident. a better work/family balance. But her hours schedule so they can spend most important piece of advice for more time with their children while young professional women is simply filling a full-time position (and only Furthermore, the current State this: figure out what you want your slighdy more common in Washing¬ Department medical requirement work and personal life to look like at ton). Because there is no maternity that women depart post six weeks in 45 and plan accordingly. ■ leave in the federal personnel system, advance of their due date to deliver a women must use sick leave or annual child in the U.S. depletes a large Tamera FiUinger was an FSO legal leave for time off to have a child — a amount of leave before delivery, often adviser with USAID, serving in Nairobi policy that disadvantages both those leaving little for recovery. and Jakarta from 1992 to 1999. She left who have already used their leave for School considerations and tire lack USAID to spend more time with her ofiier reasons and newer hires who of jobs for male spouses also adversely young children and now practices law have not yet accumulated much leave. affect female Foreign Service officers. part-time in Washington, D.C.

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Running Toward Reconciliation

By Matthew Murray

My Sunday morning run herons, starlings and egrets flocking, as through the “Haven of The new U.S. if awaiting a secret signal to take off Peace,” Dar es Salaam, pro¬ into die wind. The birds remind me of vides ample time to reflect on life here embassy in Dar es many of Tanzania’s natural wonders, in Tanzania. Starting up a lull outside Salaam seems a including Mt. Kilimanjaro, the our residence in die Mikocheni neigh¬ Serengeti National Park, die Selous borhood, I am further refreshed by symbol of our Game Reserve and die Ngorongoro friendly taxi drivers who greet me in renewed bilateral Crater. I recognize salesmen zooming Swahili as I jog past. past on bicycles headed to or from die As I turn the comer, with “Jambo” relationship since local fish market to peddle the fresh (hello) and “Habari za asubuhi” (good the bombing of four catch of the day. Turning onto Ocean morning) still hanging in the ah; I years ago. Road, I see dhows widi their huge sails come across the construction site of flapping in die breeze. One can imag¬ die new embassy. Two miles later, I ine the boats carrying slaves to pass die site of die old U.S. embassy Zanzibar or up the coast to Bagamoyo, where so many Tanzanian lives were littie more than a century ago. lost or scarred in die terrorist attack of ter of health and he toils in a country Turning back toward town, I see August 1998. This new building seems where an estimated one in seven adults one of the latest foreign investments, a symbol of our renewed bilateral rela¬ has HIV/AIDS and coundess numbers the Holiday Inn, rising in the back¬ tionship since the bombing of four die of malaria. ground. On the comer is the Mobitel years ago, but diere has been other vio¬ Next, I spot fanners hard at work office — a reminder diat more lence in recent years, stemming from a on tiny plots of land. We in the U.S. Tanzanians may rely on cellular phones secessionist political movement on would consider plots this size to be gar¬ tiian on landlines in die not-too-distant Zanzibar and periodic Muslim- dens but Tanzanians consider tiiem to future. Passing the Nyerere Cultural Christian tensions. be their livelihood. Eighty percent of Center, I head into “Littie India,” At die half-mile point, I reach Ali die population struggles to make a liv¬ where a “Namaste” (hello) or “Salaam Hassan Mwinyi Road, named after die ing off of a piece of land often less tiian aleikum” (peace be with you) is more man who succeeded die fadier of die one acre in size. likely to open doors than die local ver¬ nation, Julius Nyerere, as president. A few feet further on I get my nacular. Mwinyi failed to capture the hearts of first view of the Indian Ocean at On die homestretch, I feel the sun die population as his predecessor had Kenyatta Drive. If my eyes could at my back and note die smiling faces done, but his son is now deputy minis- strain to see farther, I might be able of children dutifully running to church to make out the outline of the exotic or die mosque. Ahead of me, I see a isle of Zanzibar. The majority of rainbow tiiat reminds me of Gods Matthew Murray is a political/ Zanzibaris offer a friendly smile or promise to Noah diat a brighter future economic officer in Dar es Salaam and wave to visiting Americans but iron¬ was in store. As I race home, I fer¬ also serves as the post’s AFSA rejxre- ically, one of the convicted bombers vently hope diat this promise will sentative. He previously served in New reportedly originated in these someday be fulfilled for all Tanzanians Delhi. The stamp is courtesy of the islands. — Christian, Muslim and others— AAFSWBookfair “Stamp Comer.” On die coast, I spot a gaggle of even if it happens long after I depart. ■

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