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AFN31926 CONTENTS October 2002 I Volume 79, No. 10 Focus ON INDIA No MORE AMBIGUITY: INDIA’S NUCLEAR POLICY / 48 In 1998, India transformed its status to a nuclear weapon 18 / A REMARKABLE TURNAROUND: state. Its nuclear policy is based on two pillars: U.S.-INDIA RELATIONS minimum deterrence and no first use. The world s two largest democracies were estranged for By Vijai K Nair 50 years, but they now get along. How did this occur? Is the newfound friendship likely to endure? By Dennis Kux FEATURES 24 / ECONOMIC REFORM IN INDIA: PALESTINE: THE PROBLEM AND THE PROSPECT / 55 How DEEP? HOW FAST? All parties to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including Economic data appear to support both optimism and Arab and Western governments and the U.N., need to take pessimism, but a look behind the numbers reveals several concrete steps to help bring peace to the Middle East. encouraging trends that give the optimists an edge. But above all, the U.S. must lead. By Joy deep Mukherji By Terrell E. Arnold 29 / SEEKING THE MIDDLE GROUND: APPRECIATION: RICHARD 1. QUEEN, 1951-2002 / 62 INDIAN POLITICS IN FLUX After nearly 50 years of Congress Party rule, COLUMNS the rise of coalition government and a reinvigorated federalism are transforming PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 the political equations in India. On the Front Lines of Diplomacy By Walter Andersen By John K. Naland 35 / INSIDE THE INDIAN FOREIGN SERVICE SPEAKING OUT /15 Among developing countries, the Indian Foreign Service How to Truly Transform Afghanistan is one of the older and better developed diplomatic By Edmund McWilliams services. An insider discusses the IFS s origins and present-day contours. REFLECTIONS/ 76 By Kishan S. Rana By Matthew Murray DEPARTMENTS 42 / OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGE: INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY TODAY LETTERS/7 New Delhi has been working on its post-Cold War CYBERNOTES / 12 priorities with measured realism, but uncertainties IN MEMORY / 64 abound in the new period of adjustment. BOOKS / 68 By K. Shankar Bajpai INDEX TO ADVERTISERS / 74 Page 18 AFSA NEWS / CENTER INSERT Cover and inside illustrations by Dana Cooper THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS FOREIGNJSERVICE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published _I_.I 0 II R N A L Editor Editorial Board monthly by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit organization. Material appearing here¬ STEVEN ALAN HON LEY CAROLINE MEIRS, in represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent the views of the Journal, the Editorial Associate Editor CHAIRMAN Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSA SUSAN B. MAITRA Business Manager LISA BRODEY Members - $9.50 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign air¬ MIKKELA V. THOMPSON WES CARRINGTON mail, $36 per year. 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Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037- Advertising Intern HOLLIS SUMMERS 2990. Printed on 50 percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. NING ZHANG WILLIAM WANLUND OCTOBER 2002/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 3 SINCE 1979, MEETING THE NEEDS OF CHILDREN IN AMERICA AND AROUND THE WORLD Your Contributions At Work. Feeding Children ... It’s What We Do Best! FEED THE §r\CHILDREN www.feedthechildren.org BOX 36, OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 73101 PHONE (405) 942-0228 PRESIDENT’S VIEWS On the Front Lines of Diplomacy BY JOHN K. NALAND This month, I every employees career and that they am scheduled to Staffing is an supported AFSAs proposal earlier this testily before the year that State adopt a fair-share Subcommittee on ever-moving target. assignment rule. Unfortunately, State National Security If the administration turned down our proposal, arguing of the House of and Congress set instead that States senior leadership Representatives would achieve the fair-share goals by , Government new requirements applying existing bidding rules. I will Reform Committee. The topic is it is vital that they tell the lawmakers that, while I do not Foreign Service staffing overseas, with also provide the doubt the determination of States specific focus on the June 2002 current leadership to accomplish this, General Accounting Office report enti¬ necessary' increased their predecessors had failed to do so tled “Staffing Shortfalls and Ineffective funding for them. and, absent new rules, dieir succes¬ Assignment System Compromise sors might also fail. Diplomatic Readiness at Hardship Workforce Planning: Finally, I will Posts.” In my testimony, I will focus on eral years for die planned “training highlight die fact that staffing is an several areas: float” of additional student positions ever-moving target. For example, in Short-Staffing: I will stress tiiat the at FSI to permit all employees the coming years we may need more most important tiling that lawmakers bound for language-designated posi¬ consular officers to interview a higher could do to improve overseas staffing tions to receive the necessary train¬ percentage of visa applicants. Given would be to pass the FY 2003 and FY ing. It will also take several more the ongoing war on terrorism, we 2004 appropriations bills funding the years of promotions to refill the FSO could well need additional completion of Secretaiy Powells mid-ranks that are now depleted as a Diplomatic Security special agents. three-year effort to rebuild our work¬ result of low junior officer intake We might need to open or expand force by hiring 1,158 new employees during the mid-1990s. posts in die Middle East. We might above attrition. That increased staffing Disincentives to Overseas Service: need to put additional staffing into would give State the ability to fill all of Hiring a lot of new employees is only public diplomacy. If the administra¬ its overseas positions for the first time half die job. Those new hires (and we tion and Congress set such new since die end of the Cold War. veterans) must also be retained. I will requirements, it is vital diat they also Skills and Experience: Unfor¬ tell die lawmakers that the lack of provide the necessary increased fund¬ tunately, even if State hires the 1,158 locality pay overseas is a growing disin¬ ing for them. Otherwise, we will be new employees by the target date of centive to overseas service. I will also forced once again to leave positions September 2004, the department say diat State can and should do more vacant and to rush employees to post will not yet have attained its goal of to improve the quality of life at hard¬ without adequate language and other “getting the right people in the right ship posts. training. place at the right time with the right Fair-Share Service: On die issue of The next two years will be critical skills.” For example, it will take sev- staffing hardship posts, I will report ones in die effort to strengthen U.S. that the vast majority of Foreign diplomatic readiness. AFSA is com¬ John K. Noland is the president of the Service members believe that service mitted to working with Secretary American Foreign Service Association. at differential posts should be a part of Powell to achieve diis vital task.