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"All Politics Is Local": How Local Context Explains Radical Right Voting

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"All Politics is Local": How Local Context Explains Radical Right Voting Diane Bolet London School of Economics and Political Science A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy January 2020 2 Statement of Originality I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work. Chapter three has been published at the European Journal of Polit- ical Research. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 53,292 words. 3 Acknowledgements Embarking on a PhD journey is not an individual experience. I am greatly indebted to the many people who have helped me over the last few years. This adventure would have not been so enriching and inspir- ing without the incredible mentorship I received from my two super- visors, Sara Hobolt and Simon Hix. Sara’s sharp analytical feedback, meticulous scrutiny and insightful guidance have greatly improved the quality of this thesis. Her pragmatism and timely suggestions have helped me to stay on track with my PhD. Simon’s impressive flow of ideas was always combined with astute advice and method- ological rigour. His encouragement and optimism have been major driving forces throughout the development of my thesis. This PhD has benefitted immensely from their supervision and I am infinitely grateful for having taken part of their stimulating and passionate intellectual exchanges. The large academic community at LSE has contributed to the improvement of my PhD. I am thankful to Thomas Leeper for acting as the moderator at my major upgrade. Neil Lee has been very kind to read drafts of my research and offer insightful feedback. Waltraud Schelkle has been an exceptional doctoral programme di- rector, and I thank her for her advice and support. I would also like 5 to thank Elisabeth Ivarsflaten and Chris Anderson for acting as my PhD examiners. My term abroad at Stanford was intellectually stimulating. I am grateful to Ken Scheve for welcoming me into his department and facilitating my visit. His acute comments have significantly improved the second paper of my PhD. I would also like to thank Jon Krosnick for offering wise methodological guidance for my research endeavours. I am grateful to Jens Hainmueller for including me in his immigration lab where I had the chance to pitch my ideas to a large group of experts. My friends, Philipp, Giorgio and Jona have greatly contributed to the pleasant experience of my American trip. I would like to thank them for making weekends filled with unforgettable memories. I also owe a massive thank you to Karen for accommodating me in this new American environment in the kindest possible way. The Economics and Social Research Council funded my trip and my postgraduate studies, and to them I also offer my thanks. My PhD benefitted from my attendance of multiple con- ferences and workshops. I am thankful to Markus Wagner, Nick Vivyan, Jae-Jae Spoon, Werner Krause, Pietro Stanig, Lawrence McKay and Elias Dinas for their thorough comments on my first and third papers at the European Political Science Association con- ference. The comments offered by Ruth Dassonneville and Brett Baker on my second paper at the Southern Political Science Asso- ciation conference have been very helpful. I also give my thanks to 6 Ben Ansell and Tom Fleming for imparting their knowledge and ex- pertise in the third paper of my PhD during the Oxford-LSE Politics Graduate Student Conference. I have met loyal academic people during my student years. I am thankful to Rubén Ruiz-Rufino for introducing me to the aca- demic world in my undergraduate years and for sharing useful aca- demic tips. Mary Stegmaier has been generous with her time and academic advice, and I thank her for acting as a mentor. I am also grateful to have met fascinating people with similar interests on the radical right during the ECPR standing group on the radical right at Florence. I would like to thank Rosie Campbell for being so under- standing and accommodating in the final phases of my PhD when I joined her project as a Post-Doc researcher. I am very fortunate to be surrounded by a supportive, loyal and fun group of academic friends. In particular, I am grateful to Philipp Dreyer for being my partner in crime at the office, for reviewing my papers and for offering incredible help and support over the past three years. I would also like to thank Max Kiefel for sharing most of our lunches, discussing the political fate of Britain and for talking about exciting new projects together. Elizabeth Morrow-Ralph has helped me develop my theoretical ideas and has become a supportive friend over these past three years. Outside my academic circle, I am grateful to my London friends who kept me sane at times of anxiety and self-doubt. I want to give special thanks to Arnaud, Charline, Florian, Lucia, Norah, 7 Norvan and Tifenn. I would also like to thank my close friends in France and, Alessia, Pat and Piotr, who have constantly shown their support and love despite being scattered around the world. Just across the channel, my family, my grandparents, Mum, Dad, Aurélie, Géraldine and Alexandre have always being present and immeasurably supportive. I am extremely grateful to my par- ents for having instilled in me the value of work and patience. I am lucky to have my sisters and brother who have always offered their affection and profound generosity. The birth of my niece has brightened the last months of my PhD. Finally, my infinite gratitude, and love, go to Fergus Green. He has not only made his mark on this PhD with his proofreading and his creative title ideas but he has also helped me grow as a person. His fine mind, his kindness and his healthy work-life balance are an everyday source of admiration and inspiration. I could not have thought of a better companion to write this PhD and I cannot wait to continue our journey together! 8 Abstract People do not form their political preferences in a vacuum. They are deeply influenced by everyday experiences in the communities where they live and work—experiences that cannot neatly be categorised as ‘economic’ or ‘cultural’. These insights, this thesis argues, are crucial to understanding why people vote for radical right parties in Europe. The thesis examines these local contextual factors using panel regressions and multilevel analyses based on original and existing datasets of fine-grained census, electoral and survey data. It makes three main contributions. First, the thesis adds a spatial dimension to the study of radical right voting behaviour by showing how local sociotropic mech- anisms—such as local labour market competition from immigrants with similar skill levels (paper 2) and the degradation of local socio-cultural spaces (pa- per 3)—affect people’s vote, alongside individual and national factors. Second, the thesis reconciles competing theories about the influence of economic and cultural factors on radical right support by pointing to the role of additional variables. Paper 1 shows how ‘subjective social status’ intermediates the rela- tionship between economic distress and the rejection of cultural outgroups (a radical right catch-cry). Paper 3 explores how the decline of everyday opportu- nities for communal interaction—here, the closure of British pubs—fuels radical right support. Paper 2 looks at the economic effects of immigration at a more granular level, showing that it is neither immigration nor unemployment per se that boosts radical right support but rather localised competition between immigrants and natives with similar skillsets. This finding points to the third contribution of this thesis: it explains why middle-class voters are also drawn to the radical right. Overall, this investigation of local contextual factors adds a crucial new dimension to our understanding of what drives people to vote for radical right political parties. 10 Contents Statement of Originality 3 Acknowledgements 5 Abstract 9 List of Tables 15 List of Figures 17 1 Introduction 18 1.1 Contributions to Debates . 22 1.2 Methodology: Model and Data Contributions . 32 1.3 Defining the Radical Right . 37 1.4 Paper 1: The Janus-Faced Nature of Radical Voting: Subjective Social Decline and the Radical Right and Radical Left Support . 41 1.5 Paper 2: Local Labour Market Competition and Radical Right Voting: Evidence from France . 42 1.6 Paper 3: Pissed! Local Socio-Cultural Degradation and Radical Right Support: The Case of British Pub Closures . 44 1.7 Road Map . 46 11 2 The Janus-Faced Nature of Radical Voting: Subjective Social Decline at the Roots of Radical Right and Radical Left Sup- port 47 2.1 Introduction . 49 2.2 Similarities: Status Anxiety, Radical Right and Radical Left Vot- ing.................................. 52 2.3 Additive Attitudinal Effects on Status Anxiety . 61 2.4 Data . 62 2.5 Empirical Strategy . 69 2.6 Results . 71 2.7 Conclusion . 80 3 Local Labour Market Competition and Radical Right Voting: Evidence from France 83 3.1 Introduction . 85 3.2 The Radical Right . 89 3.3 Local Labour Market Competition and Radical Right Voting . 91 3.4 Data and Research Design . 97 3.5 Results and Discussion . 106 3.6 Robustness Checks . 114 3.7 Conclusion . 118 4 Pissed! Local Socio-Cultural Degradation and Radical Right Support: The case of British Pub Closures 121 4.1 Introduction .
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