Right Response: Understanding and Countering Populist Extremism in Europe Matthew Goodwin Right Response Understanding and Countering Populist Extremism in Europe A Chatham House Report Matthew Goodwin ISBN 9781862032545 Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T: +44 (0)20 7957 5700 E: [email protected] www.chathamhouse.org F: +44 (0)20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Charity Registration Number: 208223 9 781862 032545 Right Response Understanding and Countering Populist Extremism in Europe Matthew Goodwin A Chatham House Report September 2011 www.chathamhouse.org Chatham House has been the home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs for ninety years. 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The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE T: +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 F: + 44 (0) 20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Charity Registration No. 208223 ISBN 978-1-86203-254-5 A catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. Designed and typeset by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Printed and bound in Great Britain by Latimer Trend and Co Ltd The material selected for the printing of this report is Elemental Chlorine Free and has been sourced from well-managed forests. It has been manufactured by an ISO 14001 certified mill under EMAS. ii www.chathamhouse.org Contents Preface v Foreword vi About the Author vii Acknowledgments viii List of Populist Extremist Parties in Europe ix Executive Summary x 1 Introduction: The Challenge 1 Overview of the report 4 2 Who Supports Populist Extremist Parties, and Why? 6 The social profile of their supporters 6 The attitudes of their supporters 8 Conclusion 11 3 The Populist Extremist Message and its Potential 12 The ideological message 12 The wider potential 14 Conclusion 22 4 Response Strategies 23 Exclusion 23 Defusing 23 Adoption 24 Principle 24 Engagement 26 Interaction 27 What strategy, and when? 27 Conclusion 28 5 Conclusion: Changing Track 29 iii www.chathamhouse.org Right Response: Understanding and Countering Populist Extremism in Europe List of Figures and Tables Figures 1 Support for PEPs across 12 states, 1980–2010 2 2 Perceived importance of immigration in EU states, 2003–10 15 3 Two most important issues facing the country, 2010 15 4 Feelings about number of immigrants, 2010 16 5 Public perceptions of whether immigration represents a problem or an opportunity 17 6 Public attitudes towards the cultural impact of immigration 18 7 Public perceptions of Muslim integration in wider society 20 8 Public perceptions of Muslim and immigrant integration in six EU states 20 9 Public dissatisfaction with functioning of national democracy 21 10 Public perceptions of government performance on immigration and integration 22 11 Perceived preconditions for immigrants to obtain citizenship 25 Tables 1 Attitudes of BNP voters 10 2 Attitudes towards legal and illegal immigration 17 3 Attitudes towards Muslims across eight states 19 iv www.chathamhouse.org international affairs, we found the idea of being able to explore this phenomenon in depth and connect policy-makers with the evidence particularly attractive. I am therefore especially grateful to Daniel, not only for encouraging us to undertake this project, but also for his Preface thoughtful input to its deliberations and his unstinting support throughout. In Matthew Goodwin, Lecturer in Politics at Nottingham University and a specialist in this area, Chatham House found a project leader with both a strong research base into extremist parties and a long-standing interest in the In recent years, populist extremist parties have achieved policy responses undertaken by mainstream political notable breakthroughs in national and local elections parties. Tapping into a network of experts and policy across the European Union. Their rise poses a growing practitioners from across the European Union, he has ably challenge to European societies, to mainstream political led this project from the outset and drawn its conclusions parties and to the process of European integration itself. together in this report. This challenge is especially acute at a time when many Chatham House has been supported in this endeavour European governments are struggling to retain their cred- by grants from Stiftung Mercator, Novamedia/ ibility in the face of reduced rates of economic growth, Postkodelotteriet and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Their unpopular immigration policies and growing scepticism generous support has enabled us to take our discussions towards the EU. to four European capitals, engage in a genuinely pan- It was against this background that Daniel Sachs, European conversation on populist extremism, and share CEO of Proventus and Chairman of the Daniel Sachs the research and conclusions with a wide audience. Foundation, first contacted me in the spring of 2010. At Chatham House, we hope to build on the base of Motivated by the upcoming parliamentary elections in this research and to explore in greater detail over the Sweden and the rising support for the populist extremist coming years both the changing phenomenon of the rise Sweden Democrats, he proposed that Chatham House of populist extremist parties and the best avenues for undertake a project that would examine not only the challenging their appeal. drivers behind the support for populist extremist parties but also possible political responses. As an institute Robin Niblett committed to understanding the underlying drivers of Director, Chatham House v www.chathamhouse.org acting without a plan. Too often the response has been event-led and short-sighted, and for too long it has failed to address this challenge. The intention of this project was to go some small way to reversing that trend. The aim was to understand the causes Foreword and consequences of rising support for populist extremism in Europe, and consider how best to respond to this trend. In a process that has taken us from London to Berlin, and from Sofia to Stockholm, we have examined empirical academic research and considered possible response strat- egies with elected politicians, public policy-makers and This project was born out of frustration and fear – the same practitioners. These discussions were geared around a series forces that constitute part of the fertile soil for populist of questions. What are the wider trends that have created extremism. While observing developments in Sweden, favourable conditions for PEPs? What does the evidence a country that has long been considered immune to this tell us about who is voting for these parties, and why? How trend, I became fearful of decreasing public tolerance do small extremist political forces gain broader electoral of difference in society, and the way in which an exclu- support through populist methods? How can we protect sionary form of politics was attracting increasing support the universalistic and egalitarian values that have become and influence. This trend has since materialized with the integral to European identity? And how can various actors anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim Sweden Democrats (SD), in society address public anxiety over sensitive and highly who polled strongly in national elections in 2010 and controversial issues, such as immigration, asylum, globali- gained 20 seats in parliament. This trend of rising support zation and the role of Islam in European democracies? for populist extremist parties (PEPs) is not restricted to How much of the increasing electoral support for PEPs is Sweden. In fact, it has been one of the most striking devel- driven by supply factors – i.e. by these parties becoming opments in modern European politics. better populists and attracting new voter groups – and I was also frustrated with the inability or unwilling- how much by demand factors – i.e. unemployment, crime, ness of the established mainstream parties to confront fear of losing out, lack of trust in established parties and this threat to liberal representative politics. In my own frustration in large parts of the electorate? At a time when view, the inadequacy of this response is evident both in European societies are becoming increasingly diverse, and the substance of mainstream parties’ manifestos – which prejudice and hostility towards that diversity are growing, show a reluctance to address the difficult, value-laden building new foundations for social cohesion will be a and often controversial issues around which populist profound challenge for European citizens and mainstream extremists are rallying support – and in their lack of a political parties alike. It is my hope that this project can coherent and effective strategy for dealing with populist contribute to that important task. extremists. Whereas PEPs devote much of their time, effort and resources to sharing best practice and devel- Daniel Sachs oping longer-term strategies, it seems that the established CEO of Proventus and Chairman of the Daniel Sachs Foundation parties have been in denial about their rise, and are Stockholm, September 2011 vi www.chathamhouse.org About the Author Matthew Goodwin is Lecturer in Politics in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, and an Associate Fellow of Chatham House. His substantive research interests are political extremism, voting behaviour and immigration.