Belarus Without Lukashenko: How It Became a Realistic Scenario

AUGUST 2020 15 Arkady Moshes, Programme Director, FIIA Ryhor Nizhnikau, Senior Research Fellow, FIIA BELARUS WITHOUT LUKASHENKO HOW IT BECAME A REALISTIC SCENARIO Alexander Lukashenko’s “victory” in the election cannot bridge the gap between the president and the modern part of Belarusian society. Turbulent times may lie ahead for Belarus. This will require the West to revise its current approach and invest more in supporting forces that want reforms and the country’s Europeanization. Six months ago, yet anoth- ruled out in practice. “Serious con- not working. People with no prior er presidential term for Alexan- cerns” about electoral irregularities political experience, like banker der Lukashenko, who has been in were to be duly expressed, but could Viktor Babaryko or blogger Sergei power in Belarus for 26 years, ap- be totally ignored by the regime. Sergei Tikhanovsky and later his peared to be a done deal. Internally, In turn, for Moscow, Lukashen- wife Svetlana, gained hundreds of everything seemed under control. ko, while not an ideal partner, was thousands of supporters across the Political opposition had been mar- still a safe bet as well. As long as country, giving their signatures in ginalized and grossly weakened he stayed in power in the country, favour of the nomination of candi- due to its chronic inability to unite. Belarus would not go the way of dates and gathering for huge ral- Economic protests that shook the Ukraine, either in terms of building lies. The 2020 election has turned country in 2017 had been quashed. democracy within or in terms of out to be the most challenging for The governing elite had been con- establishing a trust-based partner- Lukashenko, and this requires some solidated and showed no sign of po- ship with the West. The lack of eco- explaining. tential dissent. nomic reforms, taken for granted The fundamental reason is the The West was expected to give its under Lukashenko, were expected widening gap between a moderniz- blessing to the incumbent’s victory. to keep Belarus critically dependent ing, educated and increasingly open Both the EU and the US, for geopo- on Russian subsidies, cheap energy Belarusian society and the leader, litical reasons, had invested so much and markets. who professes archaic views and in the reset of relations with Minsk But as the campaign unfolded, it values and rejects the very concept that re-imposing sanctions had been became clear that the calculus was of change; who continues governing AUGUST 2020 15 through personally loyal, but not electorate and, arguably, for the president will deepen, and sooner or necessarily efficient administra- majority of Lukashenko’s voters, later the protests will prevail, as was tors and security officers, and who this was unconvincing as they the case in Ukraine and Armenia. In cannot guarantee a decent level of generally do not regard Russia as other words, the scenario of a Bela- welfare. a threat. The notion of the Rus- rus without Lukashenko has become Lukashenko’s attitude to the sian-Belarusian brotherhood has a reality. Covid-19 pandemic was the trig- been impressed upon them for dec- But this may also signify turbu- ger for the protest movement. The ades and they believe that the an- lent times ahead for both Belarus president’s stubborn refusal to nexation of Crimea was provoked and the West. The latter, which, like recognize the danger, to introduce by Ukraine itself. In turn, many of Lukashenko, has come to appreci- quarantine and to help people and those Belarusians who do see Russia ate Belarusian “stability”, should enterprises in economic need, let as a security problem do not think be prepared to meet the challenge. alone the insulting victim-blaming that Lukashenko, with his lack of The West should draw lessons from which laced his pronouncements, respect for the Belarusian language its mistakes in Ukraine, where it ran against Belarusian cultural con- and the country’s historical sym- did not anticipate the coming crisis ventions and turned even his tradi- bols, is a solution. He has done too and where, amid the Revolution of tional supporters against him. little to persuade the electorate to Dignity, EU mediators were nego- Lukashenko’s campaign as such the contrary. tiating the extension of Viktor Ya- was a chain of mistakes, which Where arguments fail, falsifica- nukovich’s stay in power, which again may show that he is out of tions and repressions are used. As a was unacceptable to the people. It sync with the nation and that his consequence, several strong candi- would already be worth concen- instincts are finally failing him. dates were put in jail and one had to trating less on endless and pointless One major blunder was the un- flee the country. The 2020 election “dialogues” with the regime, and derestimation of the potential of in Belarus has blatantly been neither helping instead to build the resil- Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who be- fair nor free. Peaceful protests could ience of those forces in Belarusian came his main opponent. As far as not withstand the pressure of the society that want change, reforms, Lukashenko was concerned, she well-trained security machinery. and national development, and that and other leading female figures of Still, Lukashenko’s victory in envisage Belarus’s future as a mod- her campaign were just “girls” and, 2020 gives him only temporary re- ern European country. as such, apparently not worth much lief. The Belarusian leader is now Unlike during the campaign of attention. politically much weaker than before. 2010, the Belarusian protesters no Another big mistake was a fix- Nothing he promises has credibili- longer wave EU flags, which means ation on the perceived Russian ty and he will be wary of inflicting that for them Europe is no longer a interference, which culminated massive repressions because this will source of hope. This is as regretta- in the arrest of Russian fighters in only serve to provoke a more wide- ble as it is logical in view of recent Belarus. The problem is that for a spread negative reaction among the Western policies towards Belarus – significant part of the Belarusian people. The gap between society and policies that should clearly change. The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decisionmaking and public debate both nationally and internationally. All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other experts in the field to ensure the high quality of the publications. In addition, publications undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors..

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