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Climate Shocks and Conflict in Lake Riparian Zones: Evidence from the Lake Chad Basin

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Climate Shocks and Conflict in Lake Riparian Zones: Evidence from the Lake Chad Basin Characterising the relationship between climate shocks, lake drying and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin Uche Thaddeus Okpara Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment August 2016 ii The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Uche Thaddeus Okpara to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2016 University of Leeds and Uche Okpara iii PhD Publications Several aspects of this PhD thesis have been published in the following peer-reviewed international journals: Okpara, U., Stringer, L. & Dougill, A. 2016. Perspectives on contextual vulnerability in discourses of climate conflict. Earth System Dynamics, 6: 2543-2576. DOI: 10.5194/esdd-6- 2543-2015 (Impact Factor: 4.589). Okpara, U., Stringer, L. & Dougill, A. 2016. Using a novel climate-water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad. Regional Environmental Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-016-1003-6 (Impact Factor: 2.664). Okpara, U., Stringer, L. & Dougill, A. 2016. Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: Unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses. Ambio - A Journal of the Human Environment. DOI: 10.1007/s13280-016-0805-6 (Impact Factor: 2.555). Okpara, U., Stringer, L., Dougill, A. & Bila, M. 2015. Conflicts about water in Lake Chad: Are environmental, vulnerability and security issues linked? Progress in Development Studies, 15(4): 308 – 325. DOI: 10.1177/1464993415592738 (Impact Factor: 0.795). The candidate designed the research that led to the journal articles, including the methodologies and data analyses, and led the writing of the articles, with co-authors providing editorial input around the structure and writing style. Other aspects of the thesis currently in preparation for publication include: Okpara, et al. (in prep.) Does lake drying condition the effect of climate shocks on conflict in lake riparian zones? Targeted for Global Environmental Change (to be submitted for publication in September 2016). Okpara, et al. (in prep.) Climate violence in the worst of times: Unpacking lessons for integrating climate adaptation, water governance and conflict management. Targeted for Environmental Science and Policy (to be submitted for publication in September 2016). iv Acknowledgments I owe a special thanks to God Almighty, the true source of all wisdom, strength and grace. This thesis has benefitted immensely from funding support from several sources. I would especially like to thank the following: the Nigerian Tertiary Education Trust Fund who provided funds for my tuition fees and living expenses, the US Social Science Research Council who granted me a pre-doctoral fellowship that facilitated my fieldwork activities in Lake Chad, the University of Leeds Climate and Geo-hazards Hub who provided funding for the stakeholder workshop I organised at the Headquarters office of the Lake Chad Basin Commission in N’Djamena, the University of Leeds Sustainable Agriculture Bursary Fund which enabled me to successfully complete a scoping study in Lake Chad, and the University of Leeds Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy for additional funding support that led to the publication of my research papers. I am grateful to all the agencies that provided me with conference travel grants, especially the Carnegie Fund for Conference Attendance, USA. I am deeply indebted to my supervisors, Professors Lindsay Stringer and Andrew Dougill, for their invaluable guidance and support. Their hard work and proactive attitudes to research remain a daily inspiration to me. I owe my sincere thanks to the Executive Director of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), Engineer Sanusi Imran Abdullahi, for providing all the institutional support that facilitated my fieldwork at the Lake Chad villages in Chad Republic at a time it was practically impossible to visit the Lake Chad territories. I am also deeply grateful to Mr. Bila Mohammed who coordinated my fieldwork and Ms Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim whose NGO facilitated my first entry into the islands and lakeside communities around the Lake Chad Basin. I am very grateful to my interpreters. Their knowledge, socio-cultural understanding and inspiring company made fieldwork a valuable learning adventure. My friends and colleagues at v the Faculty of Environment have been invaluable in providing pleasant intellectual engagements, as well as good laughs that made the PhD journey a pleasant one. Family members have encouraged me and prayed for me. I owe a lot of thanks to my parents and siblings, including my in-laws. Most importantly, I deeply thank my wife, Onyinyechi Blessing, and my two lovely daughters – Kayla and Katriel. They have always provided me a home full of happiness and peace. This thesis is dedicated to all the victims of violence and environmental degradation in the Lake Chad Basin, especially the 276 Chibok girls kidnapped in 2014 from their secondary schools in the Lake Chad area of Borno State, Nigeria. vi Abstract This thesis provides a basin-level analysis of climate shocks and conflict links, utilising livelihoods and vulnerability toolboxes, including a newly assembled conflict dataset that captures communal, rebel and water conflicts in four Lake Chad Basin (LCB) zones. The thesis draws on multi-method approaches to assess: (i) the manner in which lake drying shapes livelihood drawbacks and opportunities, (ii) the directionality of occupation-based vulnerability to double exposures, (iii) climate conflict interactions in the context of contextual vulnerability and lake drying, and (iv) adaptation-water-conflict integration need for the LCB. Key findings reveal that: - Asset holdings from unstable water-based activities are a medium through which drying influences livelihoods; - Pastoralists are more vulnerable to double exposures because they have limited social networks and income strategies; - Rainfall anomalies have dampening effects on conflict and lake drying does not represent a sufficient mediator for climate conflict links. Effects of rainfall anomalies on conflict are more pronounced in the presence of political exclusion in the Chad and Nigeria zones which occupy large areas of the LCB; - Policy initiatives increasingly acknowledge the need to preserve the Lake waters, yet initiatives that explicitly integrate adaptation, water and conflict concerns are only beginning to emerge. Two new documents indicating integration have been developed between 2015 and 2016. This thesis is the first to develop a new set of integrated vulnerability tools for use in framing climate conflict vulnerabilities in water scarce environments. It provides a piece of empirically- rich understanding that suggests that climate conflict studies that fail to account for vulnerability forces risk a critical misrepresentation and misunderstanding. The results offer an empirical case to buttress the theoretical critiques already available in the literature. The thesis concludes by vii outlining recommendations and ways forward that better integrate LCB-related adaptation, water governance and conflict management goals. viii Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... iv Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... vi Contents ....................................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. xiii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. xv Acronyms and abbreviations......................................................................................................... xv Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 Outline ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview of the climate conflict discourse lines .................................................................. 1 1.2 Framing the study .................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Arguments and research contributions .................................................................................. 5 1.4 Structure ................................................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 2 Literature review and theoretical grounding ............................................................ 10 Outline ......................................................................................................................................
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