FRONT COVER
20 20 One Powerhouse Towards a spatial blueprint South West INSIDE FRONT COVER
Important Note from Authors
You will have noticed that this report is dated 2020.
The delay in publishing has been brought about by the Coronavirus lockdowns.
Any issues that might necessitate allusion to Coronavirus do not, we feel, have a profound impact on the factors that underpin the approach, findings, plans or recommendations contained in our reports.
Indeed, our view is that the likely negative effects of the lockdowns and social distancing, combined with the cross-party aspirations for levelling up, make our draft Spatial Plans even more relevant as a very practical and transparent road map to delivering an equitable, sustainable future for the Regions of England - in the shortest possible time.
One Powerhouse Consortium Board and RSA January 2021
About the One About the RSA Powerhouse Consortium
The One Powerhouse The RSA (Royal Society Consortium, supported by for the encouragement The Sir Hugh and Lady Sykes of Arts Manufactures and Charitable Trust, believes that a Commerce) believes in a substantial part of the problem world where everyone is able to participate in creating a of regional inequality can be better future. Through our solved not just by money, but ideas, research and a 30,000 by the transformative potential strong Fellowship we are a of spatial planning. Working global community of proactive with recognised leaders in problem solvers. We unite people and ideas to resolve the creating draft spatial plans challenges of our time. for the ‘mega regions’ of England to sit alongside the existing spatial plans for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Barton Willmore is the UK’s largest independent, integrated planning
advice. We are passionate about creating places that are not only commercially viable, but also sustainable, dynamic and progressive. By curating teams of Planners, Infrastructure and Environmental specialists, and Designers with a diverse range of skills and expertise,
Barton Willmore would like to thank everyone who contributed to the research behind the project, including the South West Councils, LEPs, and Chambers of Commerce, local businesses, and Highways England. © The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of The Barton Willmore Partnership. All plans are reproduced from the Ordnance Survey Map with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Crown Copyright Reserved. License No. 100019279. Desk Top Publishing and Graphic Design by Barton Willmore Graphic Communication INSIDE FRONT COVER
Thinking Big - Our Top 12 Interventions 4 Our Great Opportunities 42
Connectivity 43 A Vision for Britain. Planned. 6 Our Economy 46 The Importance of Spatial Planning 8 People and Place 48 Assumptions About the Future 9 Environment 50
Barton Willmore 10 Priorities 52 About the One About the RSA South West 2070 – Why Now? Our Connectivity 54 Powerhouse Consortium Current and Future Challenges 12 Our Economy 55 The One Powerhouse The RSA (Royal Society Why Now? 12 Consortium, supported by for the encouragement Our People and Places 56 The Sir Hugh and Lady Sykes of Arts Manufactures and Cross-boundary Infrastructure 13 Charitable Trust, believes that a Commerce) believes in a Our Environment 57 substantial part of the problem world where everyone is able Priorities Summary 13 of regional inequality can be to participate in creating a Strategic Investment Programme 58 solved not just by money, but better future. Through our The South West 14 by the transformative potential ideas, research and a 30,000 Existing Investment in the South West 63 of spatial planning. Working strong Fellowship we are a Demographic Trends 14 with recognised leaders in global community of proactive Institutional Framework 68 the field, the consortium is problem solvers. Uniting creating draft spatial plans people and ideas to resolve The South West Economy 24 for the ‘mega regions’ of the challenges of our time. Sources 74 England to sit alongside the Political Structures 26 existing spatial plans for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Challenges 30
Challenge 1 - Connectivity Barton Willmore is the UK’s largest independent, integrated planning and Congestion in the Region 30 and design consultancy. From our 13 offices nationwide, we combine national influence with local knowledge to offer you the very best Challenge 2 – The Significant Need advice. We are passionate about creating places that are not only for New Homes and Affordable Homes 34 commercially viable, but also sustainable, dynamic and progressive. Challenge 3 – The Skills Gap in the By curating teams of Planners, Infrastructure and Environmental Region & Retention of Skills/Attracting Talent 36 specialists, and Designers with a diverse range of skills and expertise, we offer our clients a highly efficient, informed and innovative service Challenge 4 – Climate Change tailored to the challenges they face on projects of all different types. and Achieving Zero Carbon 38 Barton Willmore would like to thank everyone who contributed to the Challenge 5 – Social Inequality research behind the project, including the South West Councils, LEPs, and Isolated Communities 40 and Chambers of Commerce, local businesses, and Highways England. © The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of The Barton Willmore Partnership. All plans are reproduced from the Ordnance Survey Map with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Crown Copyright Reserved. License No. 100019279. Desk Top Publishing and Graphic Design by Barton Willmore Graphic Communication
3 Thinking Big Our Top 12 Interventions
Our Connectivity Our Economy
1. Prepare a digital infrastructure upgrade 4. Prioritise infrastructure-led housing plan for the whole South-West region and employment development in to enable the region to compete towns with hidden strategic potential, internationally. for example Weston Super Mare, Cheltenham-Gloucester, Plymouth, 2. Host an annual digital infrastructure Tiverton and Taunton. summit, focused on transformative social and economic change for 5. Establish a diverse ‘places of learning vulnerable localities and high growth network’ involving colleges and sectors. universities in towns and cities of all sizes throughout the South-West. 3. Plan for strategic infrastructure connections beyond the region, to 6. Create a public value business plan Newport, Oxford, Southampton and to underpin inward and government Birmingham. investment in infrastructure and skills, channelled across urban and rural localities in the South West.
4 Our People & Places Our Environment
7. Promote the public value business 10. Establish a collaborative network plans under ‘One Voice for the South that supports intelligent long- West’. term investment in natural capital, to achieve local and sub-regional 8. Create cross-boundary, ‘zonal’ biodiversity and environmental net- evidence bases for, in broad terms, gain including regional forests, e.g. the Peninsula, West of England, Forest of Avon; Gloucestershire/ Cotswolds and Wiltshire/Dorset sub-regions. 11. Develop a South-West Coastal Strategy, that strategically blends 9. Align zonal evidence bases with natural, heritage, recreational, planning frameworks that match maritime, sustainable energy and quality of place and design to the tourist assets to enable diverse quality of the South West’s landscape, coastal communities to maximise cultural and heritage assets. their assets and opportunities.
12. Develop a complementary carbon strategy to become a net-exporter of zero-carbon energy, combining energy assets and opportunities including coastal, nuclear and on- shore developments.
5 A Vision for Britain. Planned.
The One Powerhouse Regional inequality in the UK Consortium, supported Today, just under half of the UK While bemoaning the growth of by The Sir Hugh and Lady population live in regions with a regional inequality in the country, Ruby Sykes Charitable comparable productivity to the poorer successive governments have parts of former East Germany – and extolled the virtues of spatially blind Trust, believes that a comparable living standards are investment in the best performing substantial part of the worse. According to the recent UK2070 sectors and projects. The adherence problem of regional Commission, the UK today is more to current appraisal mechanisms, intraregionally unequal than Germany codified in the Treasury’s Green Book, inequality in the UK was in 1995. Since reunification, has been to channel investment to the can be solved not just Germany has since pulled itself most prosperous places, reinforcing together, through decisive investment geographical divides. by money, but by the programmes underpinned by visionary transformative potential spatial planning. During a similar Spatially-sensitive policy is not simply a matter of social justice of spatial planning. period the UK, on the other hand, has fragmented. and political prudence. Regional prosperity drives national prosperity Spatial planning is the ‘where’ The nature and extent of the so-called and so regional imbalance constrains of decisions. It looks at a defined ‘North-South’ divide can be presented overall performance. Accommodating geographical area and makes an in many forms. Maps showing agglomeration in some places while assessment of everything contained economic productivity, educational servicing mounting welfare bills in in that area – towns, cities, housing, attainment and poor health all present others damages the UK’s fiscal balance schools, universities, roads, rails, sharp disparities between regions and and exacerbates the underlying airports, offices, factories, hospitals, nations. Current forecasts suggest the problem. energy sources, museums, parks and situation will only get worse and that leisure activities - and makes a plan to in fact the economy of London and develop those assets for the benefit of the South East is ‘decoupling’ from the people who live in that region, now the rest of the UK (McCann 2016). The and for the future. repercussions are stark and grow more evident all the time. It is well understood that countries and regions around the world have used spatial planning to focus political will, economic activity and social reform to great effect. Notable examples include Germany’s Rhine-Ruhr, Holland’s Randstad and New York City’s Regional Plan Association.
6 The value of place & scale Our Plan Draft blueprints
There is evidence that spatial planning The clear ‘gap’ in terms of economic The vision of the One Powerhouse has already begun to deliver results in planning in the UK, therefore, is at Consortium has been to prepare a series the UK. We are not alone in recognising the level of the English regions. Any of draft spatial blueprints that will that the two ‘regional economies’ that spatial strategy needs to bring together demonstrate the potential of regional have the highest levels of productivity the best local industrial strategies planning in action and show how it are those where there are coherent and plans within a wider regional could lead to better decision-making regional economic plans: London and strategy framework. The foundations and prioritisation of investment Scotland. of how this can be achieved are already across the country. Our definition of present. The regions of England are a blueprint is that of ‘an early plan or Indeed, in England, there is good already coming together: The Northern design that explains how something work taking place through some Local Powerhouse, The Midlands Engine, The might be achieved’ (Cambridge Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) and Great South West and The Wider South dictionary). While based on thorough Combined Authorities and Mayoralties East all exist as functional identities. analysis and evaluation, our draft but not all. In strategic planning and blueprints are by no means the finished investment terms, these tend to be Our ambition is, in short, to work with product but they point to what could rather small and the outcome is rather these regional networks to prepare a be achieved with better resourcing, co- patchwork. series of draft spatial blueprints that ordination and support. will better enable decision-making and prioritisation of investment across the The technical work has been led by country and thus help the UK as a whole planning consultancies linked to the develop over the long term – creating regions: Atkins in the North, Barton opportunity for all, jobs for all and Willmore in the Midlands and the South prosperity for all. West and Aecom in the South East. The One Powerhouse Consortium has also worked hand-in-hand with the UK2070 Commission and drawn upon the support of the well-respected think tank the RSA.
This blueprint, along with those being developed in other English regions, identifies a series of challenges and opportunities facing the region but it also sets the context for a national conversation about the transformative benefits of regional spatial planning.
7 The Importance of Spatial Planning
Defining spatial planning The UK government itself has There has since been little or no spatial previously defined spatial planning planning at the regional scale, leaving The One Powerhouse Consortium as something that “goes beyond a patchwork and uncoordinated system believes adopting and implementing traditional land use planning to bring of local planning at various scales. a broad notion of spatial planning is together and integrate policies for At the time, the all-party Commons critical to the future of the UK economy. the development and use of land Communities and Local Government For some, the discipline of planning with other policies and programmes” Committee warned that “the intended involves a limited set of narrow – such as sustainability, transport, abolition of regional spatial planning statutory functions regulating the use economy and culture – “which strategies leaves a vacuum at the heart and development of land. Increasingly, influence the nature of places and how of the English planning system which however, planning is conceived more they function” (Taylor 2010). could have profound social, economic holistically, as a creative process of and environmental consequences set envisioning and delivering places and to last for many years”. (parliament.uk regions fit for the future. This broader Spatial planning in the UK 2011). conception often goes by the name of In the UK, spatial planning has ‘spatial planning’. Since then, the government has been best embraced in the devolved extolled the virtues of ‘spatially-blind’ nations. It has helped the newly At its most basic, spatial planning is the planning, making its investment devolved nations to express their ‘where’ of decisions. A spatial plan is the decisions according to the current cohesiveness and their distinctiveness visual illustration of the potential future performance of industries and sectors and to coordinate their different policy of an area. It maps out all the assets and deliberately ignoring place – programmes in service of common within a given area – the towns, cities, while simultaneously bemoaning the aims. houses, schools, universities, roads, rails, stubbornness of spatial inequality and airports, offices, factories, hospitals, the poor productivity of large parts Alongside this, in the early 2000s the energy sources, leisure activities – and, of the country. In 2012, a University New Labour government oversaw the using the available evidence, suggests of Manchester study for the RTPI creation of 9 regional development how best to arrange and develop them to showed that only 40% of surveyed UK agencies in England tasked with achieve stated goals. Spatial planning is government policy documents had an developing Regional Spatial Strategies the practice of producing these maps and explicit spatial dimension, despite all (RSS). These helped to bridge the the associated coordination of different having manifest spatial repercussions gap between local planning policy activities and decisions that influence (Wong 2012). and national objectives, in many spatial organisation. In its 2004 plan, cases allowing for more effective the Welsh Government defined spatial Perhaps the one place in England that development and infrastructure planning simply as the “consideration does have a comprehensive spatial decisions. But after 2008, when of what can and should happen where” plan is London. Unsurprisingly, this there were signs of some of these (WAG 2004). has supported it to become uniquely improvements coming to fruition, coordinated and productive. Elsewhere, planning was widely blamed for Spatial planning tends to be multi- there is insufficient focus on how harming the post-crash recovery and agency, long-term and strategic. It policies and interventions interact and some strategies were mired in debates encompasses wide-ranging economic, sometimes contradict in a given place. about housing numbers. In 2010, the political and environmental functions Restrictive land use planning at the new coalition government abolished and incorporates projections for the local level remains the norm across the regional strategies as part of its future, aiming to proactively shape much of the country, preventing the move towards localism in planning. change and improve investor confidence. development of strategic responses to In many parts of the world the discipline many future challenges. of planning spans the spatial elements of multiple different policy streams.
8 Assumptions About the Future
One Powerhouse technical partners Energy Large-scale infrastructure were given a ‘technical brief’ - an projects illustrative outline of the potential form Achieving net zero by 2050 will and content of each mega-regional necessitate a combination of local Despite delays and concerns about plan. It suggests certain common community solutions (such as low costs, HS2 will go ahead, connecting components for the regional blueprints: carbon heat solutions in homes, London and Birmingham by 2031. a) a rigorous analytical framework; electric vehicles, decentralised wind Notwithstanding current equivocation, b) a series of compelling visions; c) a generation, micro-generation and One Powerhouse supports the strategic investment framework; and d) reduced energy demand) and large- extension of tracks to both Manchester an analysis of institutional capacity and scale centralised solutions (such as and Leeds by 2040. This will boost rail strategic partnerships for delivery. offshore wind generation, hydrogen for capacity and ease road congestion. heat, carbon capture and potentially It is possible that by 2070, HS2 will Given the long-term, visionary nature new nuclear energy production by the have been extended to Glasgow and of these spatial plans, we have also mid-2030s). Low levels of: (i) policy Edinburgh. By the end of this period, made several assumptions about support; (ii) GDP growth; (iii) consumer hyperloop might be used to transport potential future scenarios based on the engagement; or (iv) technology freight and possibly passengers, most available evidence. These are set out development might prevent us from likely following existing motorways. below: achieving net zero by 2050 (FES 2019). Issues of energy poverty must Urban life be addressed, as must the potential Green Belt and increased demand on the energy system as a result of technological innovation. agricultural land Short term: Congestion is due to get worse in the UK over the next 30 years. Green Belt policy will not be The degree of intensification will be Climate change abandoned, but there will be a determined by rates of population and gradual and incremental loosening economic growth, costs of driving, A changing climate is likely to bring of restrictions as pressure for house demand for freight and several significantly increased risks of extreme building grows and more councils other variables. High demand could weather events such as flooding or find ways to ease restrictions. In the lead to the introduction of capacity droughts, which will impact transport short term, population increases will management systems such as tolls infrastructure, agriculture and other result in an increase of home-grown and segmentation, as well as smart vital economic sectors. Without food production, but in the long- traffic management systems, such as intervention, it is estimated that floods term changing diets and regenerative driverless cars and the use of big data in and droughts will become more severe. agricultural methods will change how transport systems. Kent, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the land is used. Humber are high flood risk areas, while Longer term: Towards the end of this drought will likely hit hardest in the period, however, congestion might start South East. to ease, as workers leave the biggest cities, driven away by rising house prices, declining air quality and traffic. Digital substitution for travel will facilitate this shift and the robotisation of city-centre jobs will contribute to a reduction in the amount of people travelling to city centres.
9 Barton Willmore
Barton Willmore is the UK’s largest independent, integrated planning and design consultancy. From our 13 offices nationwide, we combine national influence with local knowledge to offer you the very best advice. We are passionate about creating places that are not only commercially viable, but also sustainable, dynamic and progressive. By curating teams of Planners and Designers with a diverse range of skills and specialisms, we offer our clients a highly efficient, informed and innovative service tailored to the challenges they face on projects of all different types.
As a national Practice, we use our size to make a difference. By pushing the standards of legislation, stakeholder engagement and sustainability ever higher, we aim to influence methods of practice and projects, for the good of the property industry, local communities and the environment.
TOWN PLANNING MASTERPLANNING & URBAN DESIGN ARCHITECTURE LANDSCAPE PLANNING & DESIGN INFRASTRUCTURE & ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING HERITAGE GRAPHIC COMMUNICATION COMMUNICATIONS & ENGAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
10 Barton WillmoreApproach tothe SouthWestRegionalBlueprint Challenges & Opportunities facilitate transformative facilitate transformative social and economic social andeconomic Connectivity infrastructure to Economics change Digital Digital
approach to spatial approach tospatial infrastructure-led Resilience Planning planning An An The Economy
Framework OPH Vision living/housing Transport Priorities Regional Regional approach to approach to A smarter A smarter
People &Place Infrastructure Placemaking academic assets the region’s the region’s Galvanising Galvanising
Environment Environment job potential of job potentialof Unlocking the Unlocking the the coast The The
11 South West 2070 – Why Now? Current and Future Challenges
Why Now?
Following the revocation of the South These are the principal priorities for An issue which continues to challenge West Regional Spatial Strategy in 2010 the region: the South West is the need to there has been a fractured approach to balance the level of investment and spatial planning in the wider region. development that is essential to • Sustainable development; maintain the region’s economy and The subregions have been preparing • Strategic infrastructure; quality of life of its residents, with the their own separate joint plans, and the need to protect perhaps its greatest • Tackling disparity of place; process has been slow and convoluted; asset, being the quality of the renowned the West of England Joint Spatial • Enabling a joined-up strategic natural environment and the characters Plan has recently been found to have approach across the local of its villages, towns and cities that substantial problems with soundness authorities and LEPS; attract visitors from all over the world. at Examination and will need to be • Building on key economic assets significantly modified or withdrawn. and exploring new areas; Fractured spatial planning
Yet: • Housing; Responsibilities for co-ordinating housing, jobs, skills, infrastructure and • Education equality; and • The housing and affordable ousingh inward investment are fragmented and need in the region is significant. • Energy provision. open to political tribalism. Political leadership is essential to coordinate and • Regional infrastructure is deliver priorities and relies upon cross- congested and in need of significant boundary evidence and partnerships. improvement. In 2016, the region saw the third fastest growth in GVA per head in the county • There are pockets of deprivation and at 3.3%. The region is continuing to skills gaps in the region with a big grow, with strategic and infrastructure disparity between parts of the South development proposals underway and West. in the pipeline. Accordingly, spatial planning in the South West over the “This inequality can only be tackled next decades will be key to ensuring through a robust regional action plan for that the region seizes this opportunity the South West which looks ahead to 2070. and is sustainable and economically This regional context coupled with the prosperous. national political instability means that the time to act is now, to secure the best sustainable future for the region.”
12 Cross-boundary Infrastructure
To achieve a coherence in spatial Transport Body (SNTBs), covering Proposed High Speed Rail Connections planning and infrastructure that Devon and Cornwall. addresses inequalities between and within the region, it is essential that The risk to the region is that the South – West is an integral part Exeter becomes the end of the of national infrastructure investment line for national infrastructure strategies. investment rather than the focal point that links the Peninsula to HS2 and HS3 remain the focus of the Wester Gateway. With co- attention, neither of which offer ordinated investment by the SNTBs HS1 HS2 scope for the South-West to benefit aligned with spatial planning that Edin urgh Glasgow HS3 directly. Our report identifies strategic captures the economic benefits of HS4 HS5 links to Oxford and Newport, which infrastructure investment, any risk to
HS4 would unlock, as would early furthering the inequality that already ewcastle route suggestions for a Hyperloop exists can be mitigated. link between Wales and Scotland via Oxford. The development of Hinkley Point C and its National Grid connection Leeds Hull
The report also identified two other enables the region to also offer long Manchester Liverpool routes – Bristol to Birmingham, which term cross-boundary logistics and off- Sheffield is currently a notable gap in High site construction facilities backed by a ottingham
Speed rail planning, and a strategic significant skills base. Use of deep- irmingham loop between the South West and water facilities at Bristol Port facilities,
London via Southampton. the M5-M4 motorway network and Oxford
the electrified rail network means ristol The Western Gateway Sub-National this is a cross-boundary opportunity, Cardiff London Transport Body is well placed to make the economic and social value of the investment case for HS4 and this which could contribute significantly Exeter investment case will need to align to addressing inequalities over a long with the Peninsula Sub-National period of time.
Priorities Summary
Our visions and top 12 interventions by developing influential networks cities with potential, not just the focus firstly on addressing the lack of that can create jobs, purpose and traditional hubs of Bristol and Bath. investment per head in infrastructure wellbeing, whether this is linking to provide a strong backbone for the coastal communities or diverse places It is a vision that fights the South- South West region in its entirety, of learning that may often be working West’s corner nationally and stays notably with respect to digital in isolation. Finally, our vision seeks true to what makes this one of the infrastructure. Secondly, they focus to ensure that connectivity goes to most valued parts of the UK to live on tapping into and underpinning places other than London, and draws and work. the wonderful diversity of the region inward investment to towns and
13 The South West
Demographic Trends
The population of the South West is Key demographic trends in the region over 5.5 million (ONS), comprising 8% are: of the UK’s population. As shown on our Population and Place map, the core • The largest concentration of people is settlements (with a population of over located in the north and south east of 180,000), comprising approximately 1 the region. million of the region’s population, in • The region has the oldest median age order of size in the region are: in the UK (2011 census) with West Somerset having the oldest median 1. Bristol; age of 48. 2. Plymouth; • There is a net in-flow of 25 people 3. Bournemouth; and per 1,000 moving to the South West from London (ONS). According to the 4. Swindon. ONS, the South West has more people moving in than out, with a net inflow This is followed by the major of over 10 people per 1,000. settlements of Poole, Torbay, Exeter, Gloucester, and Cheltenham. The • The region has a ranging population location of the core cities and major and placement of core economic settlements indicate the growth areas, with the GDP per capita and influence of the south coast and varying from below average in Devon. Exeter has seen growth over Cornwall to above average in the last few years, and has a significant Gloucestershire and Wiltshire. The employment catchment area, serving a more prosperous regions attract a large surrounding area. skilled workforce, with businesses in the northern part of the region The largest concentration of people is being influenced by the competitive located in the north and south east of pressures of the South East and West the region. The region has the oldest Midlands. However, the spatial areas median age in the UK (2011 census) between the core settlements are with West Somerset having the oldest rural and less prosperous, with ageing median age of 48. There is disparity populations and poor retention of a across the region with pockets of skilled work force. These differences economic prosperity and a net in-flow create disparity of place in the region of people in places such as Bristol, to which is a challenge that needs other parts of the region further down addressing. With population clusters the peninsula in with a significant dispersed across the region, as well aging population. as poor public transport connectivity, it is harder for goods, people, and knowledge to move around easily.
• The region’s population is set to grow. Together with increasing household formation and acute affordability problems across the region, this will increase demand for housing.
14 Core Settlements
Major Settlements
Other Settlements
Rural Hubs
Urban Areas
Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty
National Parks
Sources: Office of ational Statistics 2 11 and mid 2 1 estimates Barton Willmore national constraints map 2 1
15 UK 2070 Futures Research by University of Cambridge Research (May 2019)
The UK2070 Futures Study investigated distinct scenarios regarding three basic policy variables of spatial rebalancing and development:
• Growth and change in jobs;
• Supply and demand of housing; and,
• Provision of transport infrastructure and services.
Below is a summary of the different scenarios in relation to the South West.
16 3.3 Scenario Group 1: Business as • Expected to be an increase in spatial • Housing costs in ‘many other Usual – continuing trends where jobs imbalance of jobs and people across regions could fall either in absolute are growing and where housing is being the UK throughout the period terms or below the expected average built. earnings’ (including SW) • The pattern of economic change would be reflected in diverging • Similar patterns of change would • Based on high and low growth patterns of housing costs and levels also be reflected in the increasing assumptions of commuting levels of commuting across local boundaries and in the length of trips
South West Trends – Low Growth assumption
Topic
Year Extrapolation Extrapolation of Model prediction Model prediction of Model prediction of recent trends recent trends of of average dwelling average wage costs of the volume of regional job house building rents (£) (2011) per 2031 – 2071 of commuting distribution (millions) since unit per year 2031 (within – outside) (millions), low rates 1991 – 2071 and between local of growth authority districts (2031 – 2071)
1981 1.6
1991 2.0 (2.45% change)
2001 2.3
2011 2.5 2.4 7841 100 1.6 – 0.8
2031 2.7 2.4 8624 106 1.7 – 0.9
2051 2.8 2.5 9022 109 1.8 – 1.0
2071 2.9 (0.21% change) 2.6 9435 113 1.9 – 1.0
Summary Percentage change Relatively low Report details that 2nd highest average Report suggests per year increased house building and the SW has the 2nd wage costs in the that the SW rapidly from 1981 has not drastically highest average UK (London and experiences the to 2001, but began improved, dwelling rents in WSE – 121) highest overall to slow down considering the the UK (low number percentage change (potentially due to current housing of houses being of commuters recession) crisis. Therefore, built but expensive travelling within projected house – lack of sound authority districts building numbers infrastructure and and 2nd highest are low based on investment) from outside the past. authority districts.
17 South West Trends – High Growth Assumption
Topic
Year Extrapolation Extrapolation of Model prediction Model prediction of Model prediction of recent trends recent trends of of average dwelling average wage costs of the volume of regional job house building rents (£) (2011) per 2031 – 2071 of commuting distribution (millions) since unit per year 2031 (within – outside (millions), high 1991 – 2071 and between) local rates of growth authority districts (2031 – 2071)
1981 1.6
1991 2.0
2001 2.3
2011 2.5 2.4 7841 100 1.6 – 0.8
2031 2.9 2.7 9610 111 1.9 – 1.0
2051 3.3 3.1 11326 134 2.2 – 1.2
2071 3.8 3.5 13314 175 2.5 – 1.4
Summary 2nd highest rate Predicted to be the Report predicts that 2nd highest average Report suggests of growth in terms highest growth average dwelling wage costs. that the SW of regional job in house building rents will almost experiences the distribution to – more areas for double the initial highest overall London, however it development average in 2011. percentage change is still a predicted if the correct of commuters low regional infrastructure is in travelling within job distribution place potentially authority districts compared to unlocking new land. and 2nd highest London, Midlands, from outside and North England authority districts.
18 S1L – Low Growth S1H – High Growth
Demonstrates that SW is second behind London in dwelling rents (in both Low Growth and High Growth Assumption). However, is still behind the ‘average earnings trend’. As such there is a disparity between living costs and earnings in the region.
19 3.3 Scenario Group 2: Holding the • It assumes the UK regions remain Line – emphasis on preventing the constant for the period, meaning the polarisation in the growth of jobs overall rates converge to the same getting worse. national rate among all regions
• This would mean reduced rates of • Tests the effect of interventions that polarisation in the first couple of alter employment growth rates decades, and in the later decades job creation would start to pick up
South West Trends – High Growth Assumption
Topic
Year Converging Extrapolation of Model prediction Model prediction of Model prediction rates of regional recent trends of of average dwelling average wage costs of the volume job distribution house building rents (£) (2011) per 2031 – 2071 of commuting (millions), high (millions) since unit per year 2031 (within – outside) rates of growth 1991 – 2071 and between local authority districts (2031 – 2071)
1981 1.6
1991 2.0
2001 2.3
2011 2.5 2.4 7841 100 1.6 – 0.8
2031 2.9 2.7 9531 110 1.9 – 1.0
2051 3.2 3.1 11088 132 2.1 – 1.1
2071 3.6 3.5 12926 170 2.3 – 1.3
Summary Compared to the Predicted to have Report details that Model predicts that Report suggests rest of Britain, the lowest number the SW has the 2nd by 2071, the SW that the SW regional job of dwellings in highest average will have the lowest experiences the distribution is the England by dwelling rents in average wage cost highest overall relatively low 2071, almost half the UK (low number in the UK. percentage change (indicating limited of the Midlands of houses being of commuters opportunities in the (suggesting built but expensive travelling within South West) investment is – lack of sound authority districts required) infrastructure and (suggesting limited investment) opportunities in the adjacent authority districts) and 2nd highest from outside authority districts (indicating it’s a desirable place to work).
20 3.3 Scenario Group 3: Attacking the • This scenario also considers • Maximising impact through joined – Problem – focus on more radical enhanced connectivity between the up action reductions in the level of polarisation. core cities • Opening up new markets areas to tip current trends towards better growth • Imagines even more radical changes This scenario reflects the aspirations by postulating that the rates of job for a UK – wide agenda for: • Supporting places to meet the full creation in the currently low growth needs of their communities parts of the UK will pick up sooner • Improving the quality of life and life and gradually become higher – time opportunities for people, in both the fast and slow growing areas • Meaning over time the distribution in jobs would increase outside the • A rebalanced economy which areas that are currently experiencing supports local ambitions fast growth
South West Trends – High Growth Assumption
Topic
Year Higher rates of job Extrapolation of Model prediction Model prediction of Model prediction (millions) growth recent trends of of average dwelling average wage costs of the volume of outside London and house building rents (£) (2011) per 2031 – 2071 commuting (within – WSE, uniform rates (millions) since unit per year 2031 outside) and between 1991 – 2071 local authority districts (2031 – 2071)
1981 1.6
1991 2.0
2001 2.3
2011 2.5 2.4 7841 100 1.6 – 0.8
2031 3.0 2.7 9932 113 1.9 – 1.0
2051 3.4 3.1 11938 139 2.2 – 1.2
2071 3.9 3.5 14355 190 2.5 – 1.4
Summary Lowest growth in Lowest number Report details 2nd lowest average Between 2011 and England (almost half of houses being that the SW has wage cost in 2071, the report of the Midlands) – delivered in the the 2nd highest England (London indicates that the combination of UK is predicted in average dwelling being the lowest the South West low wage cost and the South West, rents in the UK average wage experiences the improvements to but between 2011 (low number of cost) providing highest amount of infrastructure and – 2071, the region houses being built the opportunity commuting travel telecommunications will experience the but expensive to relocate to the within authority could increase the highest % change – lack of sound South West. districts, but number of jobs in per year in the UK. infrastructure and also receives the the region. investment) highest amount of commuters from outside authority districts indicating the region presents vast amounts of opportunities.
21 Comparison of dwelling rents: Scenario • S3Hb assumes the job creation rates 3 Variants: rise first in those areas closest to London and WSE and then spread • S3Ha assumes that all the regions outwards see rates in job creation pick up at a • S3Hc assumes all the core cities uniform rate outside London and WSE see job creation rates pick up first
Three graphs demonstrate that the South West has the second highest dwelling rents per unit per year in the UK. They all have a similar trend, gradually increasing up to 2071 and exceeded ‘All Britain’ average of dwelling rents.
22 Commentary
In summary, unless there is a change in High quality jobs, business investment • An increased level of job creation policy direction economic inequalities and supply chain development could in the rest of the UK would lead to will grow, and the South West will spread from the current growth a better balance of development experience increased problems of hotspots through better transport in terms of not only access to jobs, housing affordability and pressure connections, complimented by internal migration but also house on existing infrastructure. House investment in telecommunications. It prices and commuting levels. prices and rents are high, yet house is considered that the current transport • An increase in the scales of growth in building is low indicating that the investment programme to connect Scenario Group 3 are more consistent regional housing crisis will worsen. the core cities outside London and the with observed housing development The above demonstrates that the South Wider South East are not ambitious capacities. West experiences a high percentage enough in its impact to facilitate a of commuters traveling within local similar level of access. This issue should • The higher growth rates in Scenario authority districts, although, the region not be confused with the separate issue 3 represents the most desirable also attracts commuters from other of cost control since it is accepted that basis for creating a new narrative parts of the UK. transport investment should show its for the UK. It delivers the scale of value through sustainable accessibility change needed to have a significant The report states “higher growth rates and mobility it generates for those core impact on housing and wage costs driven elsewhere in the UK would lead cities, not merely by the money spent – moderating rates of growth where to better job access, better balanced or budget planned. it is problematic. It reduces the migration and housing demand, sole dependency on London for reduced commuting pressures and new The strategic implications of the sustaining the levels of growth of land take for housing”. It goes onto findings from this study are that: the UK and creates ambition across state that “all scenarios demonstrate the UK. the importance of complementary local • Continuing with existing policy policies if economic growth is to reach frameworks (i.e Business as Usual) out beyond the areas that are doing well will exacerbate the problems of in each region”. housing affordability, pressure on transport infrastructure and The overarching finding from the commuting into dense urban areas. scenario tests are that, if the UK was It is considered that it looks very better connected economically and via unlikely that we could build our way transport and telecommunications, out of the problems. “it would be possible to shape a better • High growth run the risk of being rebalanced spatial economy which may stifled by the scale of housing and provide the local communities in both labour costs rising and demands for the south and north of the UK improved major infrastructure investment. prospects to pursue their aspirations in quality of life, nature conservation and economic growth”.
23 The South West Economy
The region’s economy • The South West is ideally located for research and energy development Key economic assets: is worth approximately - the west coast has one of the best wind resources in Europe and £127 billion (House of » Hinkley Point C the best solar in the UK as well as Commons 2018). It is advanced sites for testing offshore- » Manufacturing and high tech home to clusters of world energy. There is expertise in the engineering area in nuclear and renewable energy leading sectors ranging » Digital and creative industry (e.g. Hinkley Point C). from aerospace to digital » Visitor economy • The region has a strong and creative. There manufacturing base in marine, food » Natural resources for clean energy are several prosperous and drink, and engineering. The agricultural economy has a strong areas within the region presence, particularly in Dorset and with some showing an Cornwall. Cornwall has a £1.5 billion above average growth in turnover in the agriculture sector, accounting for 6% of the region’s productivity since 2015 GVA.
(i.e. Gloucestershire). • The visitor economy sector plays an important economic role in the region and is a significant source of employment. With 27% of Cornwall designated as an AONB and Dorset’s world heritage coastline, the areas are major attractors of visitors. Renowned attractions such as Eden Project and Tate St. Ives and the blend of rural and urban locations deliver diversity of the tourism offer and provide many jobs.
• The region has a high concentration of high-tech manufacturing firms, with notable clusters in Gloucestershire and Bristol. Aerospace and advanced manufacturing are an integral component of the South West cluster and key to delivery of the UK Aerospace industrial strategy.
24 Research, Professional, Creative & Design
Advanced Manufacturing
Transport & Logistics
Energy
Visitor Economy
Traditional Industries
Universities / Further Education
Research, Professional, Sources: Creative & Design https www.westofengland ca.gov.uk lep S 1 B West of England Economic evelopment eeds Assessment E A West of England Partnership 2 1 Advanced https swlep.co.uk Manufacturing Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Economic Plan 2 1 https www.cioslep.com vision vision 2 Transport & Logistics 1 Opportunities Towards a ocal Industrial Strategy Cornwall and Isles of Scilly ocal Enterprise Partnership 2 1 Energy Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Employment and Skills Strategy 2 1 2 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Integrated Territorial Investment Strategy 2 1 Visitor Economy https dorsetlep.co.uk orset ori on 2 A Vision for Growth 2 1 Traditional Industries https www.gfirstlep.com a out us our vis ion strategic economic plan Strategic Economic Plan for Gloucestershire Universities / Further 2. 2 1 Education https heartofswlep.co.uk
Sources: https www.westofengland ca.gov.uk lep S 1 B West of England Economic evelopment eeds Assessment E A 25 West of England Partnership 2 1 https swlep.co.uk Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Economic Plan 2 1 https www.cioslep.com vision vision 2 1 Opportunities Towards a ocal Industrial Strategy Cornwall and Isles of Scilly ocal Enterprise Partnership 2 1 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Employment and Skills Strategy 2 1 2 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Integrated Territorial Investment Strategy 2 1 https dorsetlep.co.uk orset ori on 2 A Vision for Growth 2 1 https www.gfirstlep.com a out us our vis ion strategic economic plan Strategic Economic Plan for Gloucestershire 2. 2 1 https heartofswlep.co.uk Political Structures
As shown on our map, the current A new ‘Western Gateway’ has been economic growth across west Wales and approach to spatial planning in the launched which adopts a new regional the west of England and create jobs. region is fragmented and there are geography, going from the West of Linking a number of towns and cities six Local Enterprise Partnerships England to Wales, linking a number across a wide region either side of the (LEPs), with areas defined in all cases of towns and cities either side of the Severn the Western Gateway will look by local authority boundaries but Severn. It is strategic partnership to mirror the Northern Powerhouse and differing significantly in size and promoting economic growth across Midlands Engine in England. Chancellor economic potential. Joint plans are south Wales and the West of England. of the Exchequer Sajid Javid said: being prepared across the region and It is considered that the pooling of in the West of England devolution cross-border skills and expertise on “Today we are announcing an exciting is being progressed via the West of both sides of the Severn estuary can partnership to turbo charge growth across England Combined Authority (WECA) drive prosperity for the region. Up Wales and the south west of England. (comprising three of the councils in the to £400,000 has been allocated from We won’t rest until we have unlocked the region – Bath & North East Somerset, existing budgets to help kick start potential this region has to offer as we Bristol, and South Gloucestershire). the Western Gateway. The Western level-up opportunities across the UK. 1 Gateway is a partnership to promote ”
1. West of England LEP
2. Swindon and Wiltshire LEP
3. Cornwall and Isle of Scilly LEP 6 4. Dorset LEP 5. Heart of the South West LEP
6. GFirst LEP
1 Sources: Regional And Local Economic Growth Statistics, House of Commons, September 2 2018 https://www.lepnetwork.net/lep- activities/local-industrial-strategies/ https://www.rtpi.org.uk/ media/2934389/south_west_briefing_ 5 note_2018.pdf 4 3
1 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cross-border-western-gateway-will-form-new-powerhouse-in-uk-economy
26 LEP Priorities Across these priority areas and the 3. Digital capability: Delivering foundations of productivity set out in excellence in digital connectivity The West of England published their the national Industrial Strategy, the and cyber transformation to achieve Local Industrial Strategy in July West of England is focused on ensuring business growth, innovative public 2019. All the other LEPs have LISs in actions support sustainable, clean services and influence societal preparation. Below is a summary of economic growth and tackle climate change; each of the LEPs key priorities. change. 4. Place shaping: Delivering the The West of England Local Industrial infrastructure required to deliver our West of England (Local Industrial Strategy, focused around these planned growth and regenerate our Strategy 2019) priority areas, will secure the region’s City and Town Centres, and improve This Local Industrial Strategy is position as the place to develop and our visitor and cultural offer underpinned by a robust evidence test innovative solutions to future base that explores the strengths of the challenges. 5. Business development: region and the challenges it faces. Strengthening the competitiveness of It will help to raise productivity and small and medium-sized businesses The evidence base was developed in drive economic growth in a way that is and attract a greater share of foreign collaboration with partners across the sustainable and offers opportunity to and domestic investment into the region and highlighted 4 key priorities all residents. It will support the aims area. partners agreed should be at the heart of the national Industrial Strategy, government’s long-term plan to boost of the West of England’s approach: Dorset (Dorset Horizon 2038 A vision productivity and earning power across for Growth 2018) 1. fostering cross-sectoral the United Kingdom. innovation from research through to Key priorities are: commercialisation Swindon and Wiltshire (Strategic 1. Innovation: By 2038, Dorset will be Economic Plan 2014) 2. ensu ring that growth is inclusive, one of Britain’s Core City regions with a focus on opportunities for Based on their vision for 2026, SWLEP and the most sustainable of these. employment and progression for all have five strategic objectives which are Its competitiveness will be driven also their priorities for investment. by innovation, particularly in its 3. addressing the productivity key sectors, including advanced challenge, including adopting 1. Skills and talent: Enabling an engineering, manufacturing, new technology and management appropriately skilled and competitive financial services, creative industries practices and supporting businesses workforce to achieve our growth and health. to trade ambitions; 2. Skills and Enterprise: By 2038, 4. capitali sing on the region’s 2. T ransport infrastructure Dorset’s workforce will be highly innovative strengths to deliver the improvements: Enabling a well- productive, aspirational and agile infrastructure necessary for future connected, reliable and resilient so that the talents of all contribute growth transport system to support to prosperity, well-being and economic and planned development innovation. growth at key locations;
27 3. Connectivity and mobility: By 7. Health services and technology: Heart of the South West (Local 2038, we will create an efficient, By 2038, Dorset will become a Industrial Strategy Command Paper sustainable, technology-driven nationally recognised ‘healthy 2019) transport system that improves living’ pioneering region for medical connectivity in the region and technology, prevention at scale Place: enables increased productivity programme and innovative health Infrastructure for growth: across all areas of the transportation and social care solutions. network. • Transport and accessibility 8. Advanced manufacturing and 4. Business Support: By 2038, we will engineering: By 2038, Dorset • Digital infrastructure develop and enhance a world-class will become a national centre • Sustainable solutions for flood business support hub that will help of excellence for advanced management businesses start, grow and maximise manufacturing and engineering with their potential through a range of a global reputation driving forward • Energy Infrastructure focused actions that are aligned with innovative technologies. our priority areas and the objectives The infrastructure and facilities to set out in the Government’s 9. Financial services and technology: By create more and better employment: Industrial Strategy and our Local 2038, Dorset will become one of the Industrial Strategy. UK’s most economically prosperous • Enterprise infrastructure centres of excellence for the financial • Strategic employment sites 5. Digital: By 2038, Dorset will become and business services sector, leading a first-class, smart and connected through sector innovation, digital • Unlocking housing growth digital region supporting the future connectivity and expansion to new needs, economic expansion and markets. The infrastructure and facilities needed productivity of industry. We will to support higher value growth: be at the forefront of 5G and digital 10. Rural Economy: By 2038, Dorset • Specialist marine sites technology, products, manufacturing aims to be recognised as an and application development outstanding economy with a • Science/Innovation infrastructure globally. strong focus on sustainable, • Maximising our environmental inclusive and resilient growth assets 6. Clean Growth: By 2038, Dorset driven by investment in education, will become a leading low-carbon technological innovation, high energy economy, driving efforts to speed connectivity and high quality Business: deliver affordable energy to enable infrastructure sympathetically Creating a favourable business productivity and clean growth while developed within the outstanding environment: protecting our natural environment. natural landscape of the region which attracts tourism from a global • A simpler, more accessible, business audience. support system, tailored to our needs
11. Housing: By 2038, we will champion • Improving access to finance the delivery of around 78,000 new • Stimulating enterprise and growth homes across Dorset and in doing so will bring greater diversity and choice to the local housing market, meeting the needs of all its residents.
28 Achieving more sustainable and broadly Gloucester (Draft Local Industrial Cornwall (10 Opportunities 2018) based business growth: Strategy 2019) The 10 opportunities which will form The draft LIS includes the following the basis for the LIS are: • Reaching new markets (on-line, ‘Five Foundations of Productivity’: supply chains, public sector) 1. Creative • Globalisation (exports and inward Cyber-tech and green strategies will be 2. Space investment) supported by interventions across all five foundations of productivity within 3. Energy Supporting higher value growth: the government’s Industrial Strategy. 4. Agri-food
• Innovation through Smart 1. Ideas: Building on a strong track 5. Tourism Specialisation record of innovation across 6. Marine established and emerging sectors • Building our capacity for innovation 7. Mining 2. People: Building the workforce of the 8. Aerospace People future and boosting earning power for everyone by improving skills 9. eHealth Creating a responsive environment, where businesses and individuals can 10. Location 3. Business Environment: Local reach their potential: leadership to turbo charge our business community – starting, • Skills infrastructure and facilities scaling, succeeding • Accessibility to education/ employment (transport, careers 4. Infrastructure: Green growth, advice and digital inclusion) modern transport choices and better digital connectivity wherever you live • Employer engagement and in the county ownership
5. Places: Something for everyone in our Increasing employment, progression vibrant, green county and workforce skills.
• Moving people into employment
• Supporting people to progress to better jobs
• Improving workforce skills
Creating a world class workforce to support higher value growth:
• Enterprise and business skills
• Technical and higher level skills development and retention
• Maximising the skills and employment opportunities aligned to our transformational opportunities
29 Challenges
Challenge 1 - Connectivity and Congestion in the Region
The region is strong and vibrant, attracting start up and inward investors from across the world. It comprises rural areas and coastal towns and cities, many of which are popular tourist destinations.
Key Assets Key Issues
Key assets in the region include: The region suffers from a range of connectivity issues, which results in • Ports - Members of South West the competitiveness of businesses Regional Ports Association and being disadvantaged by productivity Members of the British Ports inefficiencies and increased costs. Key Association and UKMPG. issues include:
• Motorways: M49, M5, M4, M32, M27 • Poor access with congestion • A roads (A303, A358, A30, A31, A35, problems; A350, A27, A37) • Prolonged journeys wasting time • Rail (main stations): Including and decreasing management Bournemouth, Exeter, Poole, productivity; Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Weston • Increased cost of transport leading Super Mare, Dorchester, Weymouth, to non-competitive pricing/reduced Salisbury, Westbury, Bath Spa, margins; Filton Abbey Wood, Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway, Gloucester, • Frequent disruption delaying Cheltenham, Taunton, Tiverton day-to-day business needs and Parkway, St Erth. transportation of time critical goods; and • Aviation: Including Bristol Airport; Bournemouth Airport; Exeter • Difficulties in recruiting key International Airport and Newquay personnel because of extended Airport. travel.
Key assets:
» Bristol Port
» M4, M5, M32, M49, M27
» Mainline railway stations
» 4 international airports
30 Airports in the South West
South West Regional Ports Association (ports and members)
Main Train Stations in the South West
Highways England - RIS1 Junction Schemes
Highways England - RIS1 Major Schemes
Transport Development Consent Orders
Airports in the South Sources: West https infrastructure.planninginspectorate. gov.uk pro ects http www.gis.co.uk latest Greater Connected Transforming Strategic South West Regional Connectivity in South West England. An Ports Association (ports opportunity for local and national and members) government and usiness leaders to work together to significantly accelerate economic growth https swrpa.org.uk Main Train Stations in https travelwest.info pro ects metrowest the South West metrowest phase 1 https www.southwesternrailway.com https www. ristolairport.co.uk a out us who we are our future Highways England - https www.e eter airport.co.uk a out us RIS1 Junction Schemes
Highways England - RIS1 Major Schemes
Transport Development Consent Orders
Sources: https infrastructure.planninginspectorate. gov.uk pro ects 31 http www.gis.co.uk latest Greater Connected Transforming Strategic Connectivity in South West England. An opportunity for local and national government and usiness leaders to work together to significantly accelerate economic growth https swrpa.org.uk https travelwest.info pro ects metrowest metrowest phase 1 https www.southwesternrailway.com https www. ristolairport.co.uk a out us who we are our future https www.e eter airport.co.uk a out us The region is surrounded by water with The South East Dorset conurbation is The graphs also show that the following many coastal communities, presenting the second largest built up area in the districts are the main net importers of connectivity challenges. Yet, every South West and provides the economic labour (meaning that they have greater 200,000 summer visitors head to the coast powerhouse for Dorset. Its full potential numbers of jobs than resident labour 200,000 Out-Commuters Out-Commuters in significant numbers. This creates for growth as well as Dorset as a whole force): In-Commuters 150,000 In-Commuters seasonal congestion particularly on is being stifled by poor transport links 150,000 Live and Work in District the A303, A30, and A358, where the to the North (via A37, A358 to the • North Somerset Live and Work in District lack of dual carriageway is a recognised M5, and A350 to the M4) and to the • Mid Devon 100,000 national priority. The aged design of West (via A31 and A35). There is no 100,000 the single carriageway roads, steep motorways in Dorset and numerous • Weymouth and Portland 50,000 gradients and sharp bends, contribute bottlenecks on the trunk road and • Forest of Dean 50,000 to longer journey times, particularly for across the County encounter heavy heavy goods vehicles. congestion during daily and seasonal Areas with the most significant 0 0 peaks, particularly on the A31 North exporting of labour (meaning that there Poole Exeter Stroud Trunk roads and the motorway network of the South East Dorset conurbation. Torbay Mendip Poole Purbeck Torridge
are fewer jobs in the district than labour Swindon Exeter Stroud Cotswold Torbay Wiltshire Plymouth Mendip Purbeck Gloucester Mid Devon Torridge East Devon Sedgemoor are already under pressure at key Swindon Dualling of the Ameysford to Merley East Dorset Cotswold Wiltshire Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams Plymouth force) are: Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset Christchurch Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor Bournemouth East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury Bristol, City of West Devon Forest of Dean West Dorset South Hams Cheltenham West Somerset Taunton Deane locations in the South West, despite section needs to be completed to assist Devon North North Dorset Christchurch South Somerset North Somerset Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane South Somerset recent investment such as the managed trunk road access to and from the South • Exeter North Somerset South Gloucestershire Weymouth & Portland Weymouth motorway scheme completed on the East. of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles South Gloucestershire Weymouth & Portland Weymouth M4/M5 at Bristol. Particular pressure • West Dorset of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath points include the motorway junctions As shown on the accompanying • Bristol East Somerset & North Bath and links along and around the M4, M5 commute graphs, the areas where and M32 at Swindon and Bristol, the M5 the most amount of people live and The graphs highlight that the most and A30 at Exeter and M5 at Taunton, work in the same district is, Wiltshire, amount of employment activity is the A31/A35 around Bournemouth/ Bristol, and Cornwall and the Isles of found in Bristol, with a high number 1.5 Poole, the poor A37/A358 connection to Scilly. This illustrates the size of these 1.5 of people working and living in Bristol, Net Commute Ratio the A303 and M4 and the M4 junctions districts but also suggests that they but also commuting out of the district Net Commute Ratio 1.2 around Swindon and the A38 through offer local employment opportunities. for work. Smaller district have a greater 1.2
Plymouth. number of people commuting out of the 1.0 area to work. 0.91.0 There is also a lack of adequate trunk 0.9 route connectivity to the South East and 0.6 of linking of the major conurbations 0.6 along the South Coast with the M4 corridor. 0.3 0.3
0.0 0.0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Poole Purbeck Torridge Swindon Exeter Stroud Cotswold Torbay Wiltshire Plymouth Mendip Purbeck Gloucester Mid Devon Torridge East Devon Sedgemoor Swindon East Dorset Cotswold Wiltshire Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams South Plymouth Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset North Christchurch Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor Bournemouth East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury Bristol, City of West Devon Forest of Dean West Dorset South Hams South Cheltenham West Somerset Taunton Deane North Devon North North Dorset North Christchurch South Somerset South North Somerset North Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane South Somerset South North Somerset North South Gloucestershire South Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles South Gloucestershire South Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath
8000 8000
7000 7000
6000 6000
5000 32 5000
4000 4000
3000 3000
2000 2000
1000 1000
0 0 GFirst Dorset GFirst Cornwall Dorset Cornwall West of England West of England Swindon & Wiltshire Swindon & Wiltshire Heart of the South West South Heart of the Heart of the South West South Heart of the Commute Trends
200,000 200,000 Out-Commuters Out-Commuters In-Commuters 150,000 In-Commuters 150,000 Live and Work in District Live and Work in District
100,000 100,000
50,000 50,000
0 0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Poole Purbeck Torridge Swindon Exeter Stroud Cotswold Torbay Wiltshire Plymouth Mendip Purbeck Gloucester Mid Devon Torridge East Devon Sedgemoor Swindon East Dorset Cotswold Wiltshire Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams Plymouth Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset Christchurch Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor Bournemouth East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury Bristol, City of West Devon Forest of Dean West Dorset South Hams Cheltenham West Somerset Taunton Deane North Devon North North Dorset Christchurch South Somerset North Somerset Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane South Somerset North Somerset South Gloucestershire Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles South Gloucestershire Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath
1.5 1.5 Net Commute Ratio Net Commute Ratio 1.2 1.2
1.0 0.91.0 0.9
0.6 0.6
0.3 0.3
0.0 0.0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Poole Purbeck Torridge Swindon Exeter Stroud Cotswold Torbay Wiltshire Plymouth Mendip Purbeck Gloucester Mid Devon Torridge East Devon Sedgemoor Swindon East Dorset Cotswold Wiltshire Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams South Plymouth Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset North Christchurch Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor Bournemouth East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury Bristol, City of West Devon Forest of Dean West Dorset South Hams South Cheltenham West Somerset Taunton Deane Taunton North Devon North North Dorset North Christchurch South Somerset South North Somerset North Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane Taunton South Somerset South North Somerset North South Gloucestershire South Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles South Gloucestershire South Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath Note: A net commute ratio of <1 indicates that District is a net importer of labour (i.e. greater number of jobs than resident labour force), whilst a ratio of >1 indicates that District is a net exporter of labour (i.e. fewer jobs within District that resident labour force)
8000 8000
7000 7000
6000 6000
5000 33 5000
4000 4000
3000 3000
2000 2000
1000 1000
0 0 GFirst Dorset GFirst Cornwall Dorset Cornwall West of England West of England Swindon & Wiltshire Swindon & Wiltshire Heart of the South West South Heart of the Heart of the South West South Heart of the 200,000
Out-Commuters In-Commuters 150,000 Live and Work in District
100,000
50,000
0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Purbeck Torridge Swindon Cotswold Wiltshire Plymouth Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset Christchurch Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane South Somerset North Somerset South Gloucestershire Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset Bath
1.5
Net Commute Ratio
1.2
1.0 0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Purbeck Torridge Swindon Cotswold Wiltshire Plymouth Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams South Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset North Christchurch Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane Taunton South Somerset South Challenge 2 – The Significant Need Somerset North South Gloucestershire South Weymouth & Portland Weymouth for New Homes and Affordable Homes of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath
The housing need in the region is This constraint coupled with the significant, with many families in significant housing need highlights the Key challenge: temporary accommodation and importance of a cross-boundary, spatial on housing waiting lists. Since approach to planning for the region’s 8000 Providing a sufficient amount of the revocation of the RSS in 2010 housing need. Local authorities must housing that is affordable, meeting 7000 local authorities in the region have be looking beyond their boundaries the needs of all, and located in the adopted housing targets far below and working collaboratively with other right places 6000 what was planned by the RSS and authorities to deliver housing need this has resulted in unmet housing in the most sustainable locations. 5000 and affordable housing need and a This approach will need to be made significant backlog of housing need. possible with the guidance of an 4000 In the West of England alone, the overarching regional plan which sets 3000 revocation of the RSS has resulted in out the strategic and infrastructure the housing requirement to be reduced requirements for the region to 2070. 2000 by over 35,000 homes. As shown on the accompanying graph, the area covered There are opportunities to work 1000 by the Heart of the South West has collaboratively to address strategic the highest Standard Method Housing locations for growth, identifying any 0 requirement, followed by the West of potential for Green Belt release and GFirst Dorset
England. the infrastructure required to meet the Cornwall region’s housing need to 2070.
Many of the local authorities in the West of England
region cannot demonstrate a five year Swindon & Wiltshire supply and have local plans that are West South Heart of the significantly out of date. This prevents a spatial approach to planning which is made even more important by the fact that large parts of the region are constrained by Green Belt, AONB, and flood zones.
34 200,000
Out-Commuters In-Commuters 150,000 Live and Work in District
100,000
50,000
0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Purbeck Torridge Swindon Cotswold Wiltshire Plymouth Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset Christchurch Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane South Somerset North Somerset South Gloucestershire Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset Bath
1.5
Net Commute Ratio
1.2
1.0 0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0 Poole Exeter Stroud Torbay Mendip Purbeck Torridge Swindon Cotswold Wiltshire Plymouth Gloucester Mid Devon East Devon Sedgemoor East Dorset Teignbridge Tewkesbury West Devon West Dorset South Hams South Cheltenham North Devon North North Dorset North Christchurch Bournemouth Bristol, City of Forest of Dean West Somerset Taunton Deane Taunton South Somerset South North Somerset North South Gloucestershire South Weymouth & Portland Weymouth Cornwall/ Isles of Scilly Cornwall/ Isles Bath & North East Somerset & North Bath
Standard Method Housing Requirement
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 GFirst Dorset Cornwall West of England Swindon & Wiltshire Heart of the South West South Heart of the
Housing need according to the Standard Method is based on projected average annual household growth over the period 2019-2029 with an adjustment based on the 2018 median workplace based affordability ratio, specific for each LA, plus any necessary application of a cap. The resulting annual figure is then applied to each LAs local plan period to provide an overall figure. Not all LAs are working to the SM assessment of housing need at the moment, but when their plans come up for review, they will be expected to be planning for the SM.
35 Challenge 3 – The Skills Gap in the Region & Retention of Skills/Attracting Talent
The region’s economy is worth Key Issues • High house prices and a low wage approximately £127 billion (House of economy create long term risk for Commons 2018). It is home to clusters Despite recent growth, the South the region. of world leading sectors ranging from West’s economy makes up 7.3% of • Poor transport and infrastructure in aerospace to digital and creative. There the UK’s total GVA. This is one of the parts of the region - there are issues are several prosperous areas within the lowest of England’s regions, and is due with capacity constraints on highway region with some showing an above to several reasons: networks and areas with limited average growth in productivity since public transport services, creating 2015 (i.e. Gloucestershire). • Issues with lack of productivity and rural isolation. a skills gap are a barrier to future growth for the region - Cornwall • The lowest regional infrastructure Key Assets and the Isles of Scilly has been spending in £ per head between 2 recognised as a Less Developed 2011/12 and 2015/16 • The South West is ideally located for Region. In Dorset and Cornwall • Residual gaps in high speed research and energy development there is a dependence on the visitor broadband coverage and reliable • The region has a strong economy, resulting in high levels of mobile phone network in rural areas. manufacturing base in marine, food seasonal un- and underemployment. • Difficulty in retaining and attracting and drink, and engineering. • The accompanying map shows talented people contributes to • The visitor economy sector plays population in employment age the low productivity and skills an important economic role in the 16–64 with NVQ4+ level education by gap in parts of the region. A high region and is a significant source of area. It illustrates that there are two proportion of retired people is a employment. clusters with the highest amount challenge for the work force and of ‘skilled’ people in employment • The region has a high concentration a strain on infrastructure. This and these are the northern part of of high-tech manufacturing is particularly prevaland in the the region (the West of England and firms, with notable clusters in southern part of the region. Gloucestershire), and mid and south Gloucestershire and Bristol. Devon. The area with the lowest Aerospace and advanced proportion of a skilled workforce is manufacturing are an integral Somerset and north Devon. component of the South West cluster and key to delivery of the UK • The map showing the number Aerospace industrial strategy. of claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 shows pockets across the entire region, with the areas with the highest number of Key assets: claimants being: Bristol, Gloucester, Swindon, Sedgemoor, Torbay, and Plymouth. This indicates that there » High-tech manufacturing are areas of deprivation across the » Marine industry region. There are two clusters where the number of claimants is the » Food & drink lowest and these are Gloucestershire » Engineering and south/mid Devon.
» Aerospace
» Visitor economy
2. House of Commons Library ‘Infrastructure policies and investment’ March 2017.
36 Resident Population in Employment aged 16-64 NVQ4+ Cheltenham
Tewkes ury Gloucester 31.0 - 36.0 Forest Cotswold of Dean Stroud 36.1 - 41.0
South 41.1 - 46.0 City of Gloucestershire Swindon ristol
46.1 - 51.0 orth ath Somerset orth East Somerset Wiltshire 51.1 - 56.7
Mendip
Sedgemoor Source: ONS, Annual Somerset West Population Survey, 2018 orth Devon Taunton Deane South Somerset
Torridge Mid Devon
Dorset East Devon
West Devon
Teign ridge Exeter
Cornwall ournemouth Christchurch Poole Tor ay
South Hams
Plymouth
Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 Cheltenham
Tewkes ury Gloucester
1.2 - 1.5 Forest Cotswold of Dean Stroud 1.6 - 1.9
South Swindon 2.0 - 2.4 City of Gloucestershire ristol
2.5 - 2.8 orth ath Somerset orth East Somerset Wiltshire 2.9 - 3.2 Mendip
Sedgemoor Somerset West Source: ONS claimant count data, July 2019 orth Devon Taunton Deane South Somerset
Torridge Mid Devon
Dorset East Devon
West Devon
Teign ridge Exeter
Cornwall ournemouth Christchurch Poole Tor ay
South Hams
Plymouth
37 Challenge 4 – Climate Change and Achieving Zero Carbon
We have identified the following key includes investment values out to 2027 energy priorities for the region: for district heating (£300 million) Key assets: domestic and commercial energy a) Wider use of natural resources; efficiency (£400 million plus) and » Hinkley Point c renewable energy (£40 million). b) Developing energy infrastructure; » Bristol Green Capital 2015 and Key Assets » Opportunities presented by the prevailing South Westerlies, tidal c) Marine sector growth. range in the Severn Estuary, and A key asset in the region is Hinckley Bridgewater Bay Energy provision in the UK is set to Point C nuclear power station. This change significantly, as the law for net forms part of the Nuclear South West » ‘Forest of Avon’ zero carbon emissions by 2050 in the Strategy, which is a partnership UK was passed, which increases the between the Heart of the South 2050 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions West LEP, West of England LEP and reduction target in the Climate Change GFirst LEP with the nuclear industry, Act from at least 80% to 100%. This is a local authorities, academic and legally binding commitment. skills sectors and business support agencies. It anticipates that it will The region has significant potential due generate approximately £55bn worth to the prevailing South Westerlies and of nuclear opportunities over the the tidal range in the Severn Estuary next decade. The project consists of and the Bridgewater Bay which provides building two nuclear reactors providing potential for tidal lagoon and tidal flow low carbon electricity for roughly 6m energy generation. homes. A socio-economic impact of this asset includes £9.4m delivered Opportunities in the region have been to aid local community projects to recognised by the Government and date. It also anticipates that it will international organisations, including create over 25,000 new employment the European Investment Bank. opportunities and bring lasting benefits Approximately £2m allocated for new to communities throughout the region. energy products has been awarded to Bristol City Council, in partnership with Devon and Plymouth councils to fund Key Issues new energy efficient, renewable energy, sustainable transport and heat network A constraint for the region is the rapid projects across the region. growth in construction of distributed renewable energy developments, Bristol was awarded European Green including solar farms which has led Capital status in 2015 and Bristol City to a large strain on the grid network. Council has invested approximately The combination of this and the ever- £50m in energy projects, including growing expectation of producing low wind and solar and district heating. carbon development to achieve the The Council has now agreed plans legally binding government target, to ‘decarbonise, decentralise and presents a challenge for the region. democratise’ the City’s energy Systems. There could be significant challenges Following the launch of Bristol’s over the next 50 years with the ability City Leap programme last year, 180 of the network to provide sufficient organisations from around the world capacity for the region as it develops have expressed their interest in and the population grows. working with Bristol. The programme
38 Power Stations
Wind Development with a capacity of more than 15MW
Solar Development with a capacity of more than 15MW
Hydro Power
Battery Storage with a capacity of more than 20MW
Energy Development Consent Orders
Power Stations Sources: https infrastructure.planninginspectorate.g ov.uk pro ects http www.mygridg .co.uk map Wind Development https theenergyst.com net ero ristols with a capacity of more illion decar onisation plan than 15MW https www.westernpower.co.uk epartment for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy https www.somersetenergyinnovationcentr Solar Development with e.co.uk a capacity of uclear South West Strategy 2 1 more than 15MW https heartofswlep.co.uk wp content uplo ads 2 1 SW Govt Strategy Green Pap er esponse FI A .pdf Hydro Power
Battery Storage with a capacity of more than 20MW
Energy Development Consent Orders
Sources: https infrastructure.planninginspectorate.g ov.uk pro ects http www.mygridg .co.uk map 39 https theenergyst.com net ero ristols illion decar onisation plan https www.westernpower.co.uk epartment for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy https www.somersetenergyinnovationcentr e.co.uk uclear South West Strategy 2 1 https heartofswlep.co.uk wp content uplo ads 2 1 SW Govt Strategy Green Pap er esponse FI A .pdf Challenge 5 – Social Inequality and Isolated Communities
The location of the core cities and major The region has a ranging population settlements indicate the growth and and placement of core economic influence of the south coast and Devon. areas, with the GDP per capita varying The largest concentration of people is from below average in Cornwall to located in the north and south east of above average in Gloucestershire the region. and Wiltshire. The more prosperous regions attract a skilled workforce, A key challenge in the region is areas with businesses in the northern with a significant aging population and part of the region being influenced isolated communities. The region has by the competitive pressures of the oldest median age in the UK (2011 the South East and West Midlands. census) with West Somerset having the However, the spatial areas between oldest median age of 48. the core settlements are rural and less prosperous, with ageing populations There is a net in-flow of 25 people and poor retention of a skilled work per 1,000 moving to the South West force. These differences create from London (ONS). According to the disparity of place in the region which is ONS, the South West has more people a challenge issue that needs addressing. moving in than out, with a net inflow With population clusters dispersed of over 10 people per 1,000. However, across the region, as well as poor public this trend is concentred in the northern transport connectivity, it is harder part of the region around the core city for goods, people, and knowledge to of Bristol and in the area covered by move around easily. Infrastructure the Heart of the South West LEP (Local investment has a significant role to play authorities of Plymouth, Devon, Torbay, in addressing this challenge. and Somerset), there is a growing and aging population. The Working age population is not set to rise in proportion to the population overall. Policy and plans for housing and employment are needed to influence changes in the population profile. In addition, there is an identified persistent productivity gap between the Heart of the South West and the rest of the UK and there is a risk that the gap will widen by 2030, with significant variation at a district level (Heart of the South West Economic Modelling 2017).
40 41 Our Great Opportunities
We have grouped the opportunities for the region to 2070 under four themes, each of which inform our twelve interventions that follow this section of the report.
Our four themes are:
1. Our Connectivity
2. Our Economy
3. Ou r People & Places
4. Our Environment
42 Connectivity
Digital Infrastructure We have identified the following Despite that, the South West still infrastructure improvements required has had the lowest investment in Through the European Convergence for the region: infrastructure per head of all regions. Fund, Cornwall has benefited from To make the most of the investment significant investment in the spine • Rail – improve rail connections to the South West does receive, the proper of its digital infrastructure; however, other regions in the UK. Improving planning of transport and strategic throughout the South West, many speed. Investment in modernising and local investment in services and areas away from the main cities and and electrifying Great Western facilities will assist the achievement of towns suffer from poor to non-existent Mainline to add 14,000 more trains a Spatial Strategy for the region and the connectivity. The locations worst per year aims of stimulating economic activity in the west on the peninsula, realising effected by this are the rural areas of • Roads – improvements to the the potential of the SSCTS in the centre Somerset, Devon, and Cornwall. road network to support access and north of the region, and allowing to businesses, new residential carefully managed growth to occur in Improving broadband connection to developments, unlock potential the south east of the region. all communities, including more rural employment sites, improve isolated areas, underpins transformative connections to ports and airports. Alongside making the most of social and economic change, including Investment in the Strategic Road investment, reducing regional access to services, community Network is managed through the contributions to climate change is empowerment and access to resources. Highways England Road Investment critical to achieving carbon targets. Strategy and continued strategic However, reducing the need to travel All of the LEPs recognise the digital investment on the South West in the South West is a significant challenge and include digital A303-A30-A358 Corridor and the challenge due to the rural nature and infrastructure in their key priorities. Solent to Birmingham corridor the geography of the of the region and Alongside addressing the causes and are needed. On-going strategic the predicted growth in the population impacts of climate change, successfully investment is also required for the and economy. Congestion and addressing digital infrastructure is key motorways (M4, M5, M27, M32, unreliable journey time can prejudice central to sustaining diverse localities M49) and A-roads, which play a the success of the regional economy, up to 2070, and reducing their potential crucial role particularly in Cornwall, whist the growth in private transport isolation. Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire and and reduction in public transport can Wiltshire. leave some sections of the population Areas for Major • Ports – investment and marginalised. Infrastructure enhancement of trunk roads and carriageways for ports in the region Our workshops identified that a holistic Development since they rely heavily on M4 approach to developing business and M5 trunk road networks and cases for road and rail investment is Transport infrastructure is also critical dualling programmes along the a key opportunity for the South West, to support planned economic growth in South Coast. bringing together disparate needs over the region. Some goals around transport diverse geographies, and looking at • Aviation – potential to increase in the region include: reduce carbon the wider social and environmental passengers by 1 million passengers emissions; support economic growth; benefits of that investment in new per annum (mppa) annually to promote accessibility; safety, health ways. Exeter International Airport, and up and security; improve quality of life. A to 20 mppa for Bristol Airport. number of major transport schemes have been implemented and planned in order to deliver economic growth.
43 There are difficulties in dealing with University Technical College, an • Quedgeley East Business Park, the transport needs of a dispersed Advanced Nuclear and Renewables Gloucester – the MOD storage population whilst making a difference Research Centre and a Cyber Security facility is located on the M5 to regional CO2 emissions. There is Training Centre; Junction 12. The 0.24km squared the risk that improvement to strategic site of multi-let industrial / • Dorset Innovation Park Enterprise routes such as M4/M5 and A303/A358 warehouse buildings currently Zone – the decommissioned area of could increase traffic flows whilst not houses 20 tenants. Redevelopment Winfrith Nuclear Research Centre, bringing needed economic benefits. opportunities include a new high- suitable for R&D, environmental and A sustainable approach to transport quality business park; hi – tech businesses, with simplified alone may not be enough to make a planning and incentives. Atlas • Somerset Energy Innovation difference to regional CO2 emissions Elektronik, Qinetiq and Tradebe Centre – 19km from Hinkley Point and congestion unless equal measures Inutec are anchor tenants. C and the focal point for South West are taken to complement them. nuclear supply chain programmes. • Filton Enterprise Area – with world Tenants include multinational Tier However, physical connectivity unlocks renowned heritage in aerospace 1s and developers, specialists and employment potential. Along the technology, manufacturing and project managers. Both shared and western and southern coasts of the engineering, this 1km squared site individual spaces are available; region there are hundreds of small, offers a rich and diverse workforce, a medium and international companies robust and connected infrastructure • Taunton – within Somerset’s largest such as Wave Hub, the world’s most and technological expertise; and fastest growing town, there is advanced site for testing offshore- 50,000m squared of town centre • Junction 21 Enterprise Area – a energy technology. modern and Georgian office space, 0.72km squared site as Weston Super close to a mainline railway station. Mare offering excellent transport The opportunity for the South West Three large business parks offer links, a diverse local economy and a region lies in harnessing the collective distribution and distribution space highly skilled talent pool; potential of these industries, linking nearby; and them to their hinterlands and to each • Gloucester Business Park – the • Temple Quarter Bristol – One of other, providing long term resilience 1.10km squared site alongside M5 the UK’s largest urban regeneration and opportunities for innovation. Junction 11a offers bespoke high projects and home to a wealth of quality industrial, warehouse, office digital, creative, hi – tech, low Key investment sites – below are buildings and site opportunities. carbon and professional services examples of options available across Home to over 60 companies companies. Temple Quarter has the South West: including Horizon Nuclear Power, Ageas and BAE; • Avonmouth – Severnside Enterprise • Huntspill Energy Park Enterprise Area – stretching along 8km Zone – uniquely placed at Junction of the estuary between Bristol 23 of the M5, it is under 20km to and the River Severn, the area Hinkley Point C in Somerset, the comprises 18km squared for large largest brownfield site in the South scale industrial, warehouse and West Enterprise Zone. Simplified distribution, energy and waste planning and business incentives are processing sectors, with access to 45 available; million people via the excellent road, rail and port connections; • Oceansgate Marine Enterprise Zone – located in Plymouth, adjacent to • Berkeley Green, Gloucestershire Devonport Dockyard, this 0.35km Science and Technology Park squared has deep water access, – comprised of 162m squared industrial units and docks, and a new of buildings, lab space and site Business Technology Centre opening opportunities at former Berkeley in 2020; nuclear research facility. The site offers the Green Skills Centre,
44 received millions in investment to improve infrastructure, provide superfast broadband and enhance public transport options.
• Bristol Port – There is an opportunity for the Port and its hinterland to secure ‘Free Port’ status, and act as a catalyst for economic growth.
Our interventions recognise that additional connectivity investment in critical on the one hand, and that the South West has to find a way to make sure that this investment reaches a dispersed range of communities and in particular benefits those small towns most isolated and at risk by 2070.
45 Our Economy
The South West has a diverse economy, Skills and business sectors Place and development spatially, across different sectors and at different scales from the local to the a) Retaining a skilled workforce in e) Main taining and enhancing cultural international. localities across the South West and leisure facilities;
We have identified the following key b) Investing in the knowledge-based f) Developing sustainable, thriving places; economic priorities for the region: sectors and research expertise. g) Providing sufficient housing; c) Promoting successful and competitive businesses; h) Improving digital infrastructure allowing communities to thrive and d) Building on the digital, marine, businesses to connect and trade aviation, advanced manufacturing and worldwide; energy sectors; i) Facilitatin g the development of strategic employment sites to meet growth ambitions;
46 New and emerging assets • The region has a diverse research It will: base, with 13 universities specialising in a range of fields Our stakeholder workshops have drawn • Ensure the region is developing and a network of world-class out the region’s hidden assets – those the skills needed to deliver research institutions, creating and which have strategic potential but are ambitions by, for example, attracting a skilled workforce. The lesser known, whether established or addressing health-related GW4 Alliance brings together the new. barriers to employment and universities of Bristol, Bath, Cardiff, progression; • The region is characterised by and Exeter. They work together to • Ensure employers across the research, professional, creative attract the brightest and the best region are able to access the and digital industries. There are researchers to build a highly skilled skills they need both now several Enterprise Zones and Science workforce, strengthening the and in the future, helping Parks in the region which facilitate regional economy and addressing businesses grow; ‘innovation active’ businesses, the UK’s productivity challenge. creating a dynamic, knowledge- They connect universities with • Ensure there is a strong talent based economy. major businesses, decision makers pipeline of high-skilled people and local communities to champion contributing to future growth in • Advanced Manufacturing: The region research and innovation for the the high-value sectors that are has a high concentration of high- ‘Great West’. key to the regional economy; tech manufacturing firms, with notable clusters in Gloucestershire • .Ensure the region has the and Bristol. Aerospace and advanced Retaining A Skilled skills required to deliver on its manufacturing are an integral Workforce infrastructure ambitions while component of the South West supporting clean growth by cluster and key to delivery of the UK promoting clean construction Improving the further education Aerospace industrial strategy. and retrofit skills etc; and skills training offer is a critical • Projects such as Goonhilly Earth opportunity. • Address health-related barriers Station provide important research to work and progression; and innovation platforms facilitating All education and training activity • Explore locally-led connections with other European should have line of sight to enhancement of existing Space research facilities. employment, matching skills to regional provision such business needs. The South West • Towns and cities such as Weston, as the West of England is targeting investment in the Taunton, Falmouth, Swindon, Apprenticeship Hub to offer a Employability Chartermark which Cheltenham and Gloucester are brokerage systems, enabling brings business and education becoming the increasing focus of levy transfers for the benefit of together, raises aspirations and long-term thinking, with a critical employers who do not pay the attainment and delivers skills for mass and strategic positions in the apprenticeship levy, helping growth which will positively impact South-West. to develop the supply chain of everyone in the region either directly apprenticeships; and • Marine, nuclear and defence or indirectly. industries located in the South-West • Exploring the opportunity to offer provide a platform for growth The West of England Local Industrial enhance the apprenticeship and innovations, with connections to Strategy has an ambition to drive brand in the marketplace industry clusters nationally. clean and inclusive growth, to support leading to an increase in the residents across the region to reach take-up of apprenticeships their potential. across the SME base.
These aspirations can and should be applied to the wider region, through joint working between the LEPs and their Industrial Strategies.
47 People and Place
Tackling social exclusion
There is a need and challenge for Local Authorities to work together and in partnership with others to examine and better understand cross-boundary housing market area issues.
There needs to be more sustainable use of land which can be done through increasing densities for housing and commercial development. Higher densities are possible at the Strategically Significant Cities and towns (SSCTs) of the region where major development and redevelopment within existing urban areas is proposed. Good quality design, green infrastructure and the careful planning of essential services and infrastructure will ensure the higher densities proposed result in good quality living environments. problems, ex-offenders, young people as an asset. An aim for the South West There are opportunities to tackle the leaving care, and Gypsies and Travellers would be to eliminate discrimination demographic and spatial disparity in often feature amongst the most arising as further growth happens and the region through providing a greater deprived and excluded people in the as planning policy is implemented in mix of housing in areas with aging region. In order to tackle these issues, the future. It is important to ensure populations, particularly affordable local authorities must ensure that that policy is sensitive to the needs of family housing. This will of course consideration is given to identifying different groups within the South West need to be linked to employment social groups that represent an above so that all people in the region have opportunities. There are also average percentage of the constituent the opportunity to benefit from the opportunities to direct some housing population. Policies need to ensure rising prosperity this strategy seeks to growth to more isolated parts of the that specific needs of such groups are achieve, and the opportunities enabled region and stimulating economic identified and incorporated into policy by positive planning. activity in the west of the peninsula, decision-making and implementation. realising the potential of SSCTs in the A key measure for success will be to A regional plan for the South West centre and north of the region, and reduce the number of people in the should building on local Equality Impact allowing carefully managed growth the South West suffering from deprivation, Assessments and develop policies in occur in the south east of the region. social exclusion and discrimination, full recognition of the diverse needs, and to improve the quality of life for the circumstances and concerns of the Our workshops identified some key most vulnerable people. people who will be affected by them. known and the emerging SSCTs This will enable the plan to take Equality underpins the aspiration account of the needs of all groups in Poverty and deprivation are obstacles for a more sustainable, inclusive and society when planning the development to the region’s growth potential as not prosperous South West. Extending of communities in the South West to everyone gets a fair share of its success. opportunities for all, mean addressing ensure that all members of society are Homeless people, refugees, asylum social and economic barriers and able to benefit from growing prosperity seekers, people with mental health celebrating and building upon the and improving quality of life in the diversity of the South West’s population region.
48 Key opportunities for improving social • A Biosphere Reserve managed in an This has created significant inclusion include: exemplary fashion will demonstrate development pressure around towns the value of natural capital and cities in the South West that are • Reducing the skills gap issues investment, providing a model for constrained by Green Belt planning by improving young people’s others to follow. designations that do not necessarily attainment at 16 years old. reflect the quality of the landscape Green infrastructure is important but do provide a break from urban • Supporting the development of for people’s well-being. It is a development. sustainable, thriving places that key component of ensuring that offer opportunities and enhance development provides positive benefits Infrastructure-led planning and high- the quality of life for communities for the region and consists of strategic quality design can deliver sustainable in order to ensure the benefits of networks of accessible, multifunctional settlements if these are well-thought a successful economy are shared. sites as well as linkages such as out and identified working with Quality of place is vital for economic river corridors, wildlife corridors, communities. performance as well as social floodplains and greenways. In order cohesion and wellbeing. to achieve a distinctive approach for This social shift in how we work, live • Plans across the region should the South West, it is important that and interact is powered by innovations include a variety of co-ordinated Green Infrastructure is planned around in technologies and can be picked up, activities to help businesses find existing environmental and cultural adapted and implemented globally premises to suit their changing characteristics. Areas of opportunity as cities compete for investment and needs. for Green Infrastructure should be attention. Smart Cities is the latest identified in order to provide clear vision which could solve some of our objectives and priorities. most complex national and global Heritage, environmental challenges, such as climate change, and cultural assets pollution, social equality and economic Opportunities for stability. However, technological With 27% of Cornwall designated as the development of change is not matched by the pace at which cities and communities are an AONB and Dorset’s world heritage Smart new Towns and coastline, the areas are major attractors planning for and delivering smart of visitors. Exmoor National Park in settlements infrastructure and capability. Devon is also a key asset in the region. There are opportunities to enhance There is a significant opportunity for The opportunity for the South West to these assets, contributing to the sustainable new settlements including adopt ‘Smart City’ thinking currently prosperity of the region. and enhancing the main cities to focuses around the major cities of become Smart Cities Bristol – recognised as a world leader In January 2018, the government in Smart Cities, Swindon, Exeter, and published its 25 Year Environment There has been a real cultural shift Plymouth, along with the proposed Plan, setting out 10 environmental to city living in the UK in recent Cheltenham – Gloucester super city goals covering all aspects of the years. A generation ago, many UK concept. environment, from land, sea, air and cities were perceived as bleak and water. The plan is to identify, develop, unsafe areas to live, with suburbia and test and implement a portfolio of new towns deemed more desirable. natural capital investment approaches. With the number of business parks The outcomes of the 25-year delivery decreasing and businesses relocating programme will include: to city centres and leisure facilities and amenities on people’s doorsteps, • A fully integrated network of the population is trading a commute re-naturalised wildlife habitats and outdoor space for location, demonstrating the value of the convenience, facilities and all the other ecosystems approach; and benefits that come with city living.
49 Environment
Climate change and the Other opportunities include the Improving energy efficiency will research centres and key energy continue to be important for zero carbon economy facilities. The Somerset Energy business and household resilience, - major projects for Innovation Centre (SEIC) in Bridgewater as will decentralised heat and power presents an opportunity to exploit the technologies. energy generation and low carbon and nuclear energy sectors. the development of SEIC provides support and low carbon The South West has one of the best environmental capital supply chain expertise to identify live wave and tidal resources within the opportunities in this growing sector. UK. The marine sector includes Marine The Centre provides up to 70 jobs, and Offshore R&D, manufacturing and A challenge and an opportunity for the safeguards up to 210 over 15 years and services and marine renewables. It is region will be the shift towards a low will generate approximately £14 million an area of clear competitive advantage carbon economy. The UK Government of GVA over 15 years. in terms of both existing business aims to reduce carbon emissions by 80% and employment as well as unrivalled 2050 (compared to 1990 levels) with There is significant potential for cutting-edge marine research and an interim reduction target of 34% by the development of on and offshore demonstration facilities such as the 2020. The transition to a less carbon- renewable energy to provide low carbon new hydro-dynamic test facilities. This intensive model of economic growth energy for the future, with aims for the sector is closely aligned with other will have profound impacts on the way UK delivering its target of 15% of total key sectors across the region and as in which we all work and consume. As energy consumed to be generated from such has potential to drive forward well as being an environmental and renewable sources by 2020. significant supply chain opportunities. economic imperative, however, this The South West Marine Energy Park shift is also an economic opportunity Developing the region’s renewable (Wave Hub), for example builds on for residents and businesses alike. energy potential brings about a the region’s mix of renewable energy Plymouth has among the lowest carbon large-scale distributed infrastructure resource and industrial, academic and emissions of UK cities and, there exists challenge and it is important to make technical expertise. a real opportunity to capitalise upon sure that there is sufficient grid the its green credentials as a driver of capacity to allow for the transmission In 2013, the Department for Business, growth and investment (Heart of the of locally generated renewable energy Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) South West Economic Modelling 2017). as well as energy form national estimated that wave and tidal stream infrastructure projects. Obtaining energy has the potential to meet up The rapid growth in construction energy from tidal stream energy and to 20% of the UK’s current electricity of distributed renewable energy exploiting the low carbon and nuclear demand. The BEIS suggested that developments, including solar farms, energy sectors would work to making between 200MW and 300MW of has led to a large strain on the grid energy production less scattered, to generation capacity could be deployed network. The combination of this reduce the stain on the grid network. by 2020, and up to 27 GW’s by 2050. and the ever-growing expectation of An example of this technology includes producing low carbon development to The South West has the potential to the proposed West Somerset Tidal achieve the legally binding government become leader in fields of new nuclear Lagoon. This development presents target, presents a challenge and an and marine renewables; the opportunity for the construction of opportunity for the region. a continuous breakwater mill, which Renewable energy capacity has would have the generating capacity of The energy sector employs 10,000 increased, but there remains 2.8 GW per year. people in the region. The sector is considerable untapped resource and strongly represented in the region market opportunity; Minimising the level of demand for including UKDEA, EDA and Ecotricity. energy through improving energy The region has significant existing and Grid infrastructure is starting to limit efficiency is a major challenge, proposed national energy infrastructure deployment; and particularly with regard to existing projects including Seabank gas fired buildings and a move towards more power station, the Hinkley C grid connections project and the proposed Oldbury Nuclear Power Station.
50 sustainable construction will help Major projects for land address this issue in relation to new development. Producing more energy reclamation and coastal locally from renewable sources will defence reduce the region’s unsustainable ecofootprint as well as providing Due to the region’s significant economic benefits by creating jobs. coastline and rivers, flood risk will be an important risk to manage in the In May 2019, the Committee on Climate region over the next 50 years. There Change (CCC) published ‘Net Zero are opportunities for local community – The UK’s contribution to stopping solutions (i.e. low carbon heat global warming’. The CCC states that solutions in homes; electric vehicles; decentralised wind generation; “the UK must make firm plans for micro-generation and reduced energy housing and domestic heat, for industrial demand), alongside large-scale emissions, carbon capture and storage, centralised solutions (i.e. offshore road transport, agriculture, aviation and wind generation; roll out of hydrogen shipping”. for heat; growing storage capacity and carbon capture; possibly an increase in The South-West does not offer nuclear). significant region-wide opportunities to decarbonise heat through CHP, There is an opportunity to support and in the way London does, or a Carbon provide investment to projects similar Capture cluster of the scale that to the £3.7 million sea defence project Humberside and Teeside offer. However at Long Rock. This project provides as demonstrated in Bristol, city-wide increased coastal protection to the district heating does have potential, Great Western Railway mainline and complemented by the natural resources A30 serving strategic transport links available. Our landscape offers the in and out of Penzance and access to potential for regional-scale tree the Isles of Scilly); protect commercial planting tapping into national level assets and infrastructure including cross-party commitments. 295 residential properties and 65 commercial properties; improve the The opportunity for the South West natural environment by protecting is perhaps more significant and Marazion Marsh, creating an increased urgent than other regions given the area of open water for habitat challenges set out earlier in balancing and wildlife and connecting river infrastructure with the dispersed, catchments to the coast at Mounts Bay. rural nature of much of the region, where road infrastructure is vital for Further investment is required along the economy and communities. The the Dawlish rail lines. Work is being opportunity to invest in sustainable undertaken to erect a 25-foot sea wall electricity-based transport along the Dawlish lines due to the infrastructure is one which may need severe storms in 2014, breaking the sea a combination of legislative, policy defences and dislodging the railway (including development plan and track. Network Rail is planning to local industrial strategy policies) and secure the future of the line for the next financial measures to realise. 100 years. Further investment will be required for this to happen.
51 Priorities
“An open, connected South West that supports and enhances the diverse strength of our local places”
The Cambridge University UK responses at the national level and broken down between administrative 2070 Futures Research highlighted requiring an investment strategy that boundaries, sectors and ways of that it would be the more isolated can achieve value for money and a thinking so that the region as a whole communities in the South West most return on investment whilst reaching is able to make the most of its assets at risk from future scenarios, i.e. a dispersed set of communities and and understand how to speak with one those smaller rural towns not well- localities. voice. served by infrastructure, housing, or employment. These proposed interventions therefore We have continued the four themes aim to maximise the flow of finance, identified in this report to propose With infrastructure spending per-head skills and ideas into and within the 12 inter-connected interventions to in the regional typically the lowest of region and use a network approach to channel effort at three different scales: all regions, the South-West remains channel them to support and enhance vulnerable to increasing inequality, local strengths, whether existing or unable to rely on sympathetic emerging. This requires barriers to be
Networks of common interests
Investment in Local strengths connectivity infrastructure and USPs (digital and physical)
52 Infrastructure-led Proportionate Growth irmingham
Digital Infrastructure West Wales
Academic Assets
Unlocking the Potential of the Coast
Cam ridge/Oxford