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Management Report 2018

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Management Report 2018 Management report 2018 CONTENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH 6 World Africa Morocco BANKING AND FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT 12 Africa Morocco ANALYSIS OF GROUP RESULTS 18 Parent-company results Group subsidiaries in Morocco Consolidated results GLOBAL RISK MANAGEMENT 32 Credit risk Market risk Country risk Operational risk and BCP Risk Management Asset-liability management PILLAR III: RISKS AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY 60 RESOLUTIONS OF THE ORDINARY GENERAL MEETING 70 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 72 PARENT-COMPANY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 106 CONTACTS 128 ATTIJARIWAFA BANK: AN INTERNATIONAL BANKING AND FINANCIAL GROUP EuropeEurope NorthAfrique Africa du Nord CAEMCCEMAC WAEMUUEMOA MANAGEMENT REPORT Economic growth World : global gdp growth Global business activity continued to improve in 2018, with GDP In Japan, GDP growth slowed to 0.9% in 2018, compared with rising 3.7%. Growth of 3.5% is expected in 2019, according to 1.9%. This performance is attributable to lower domestic demand the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). and a slowdown in exports hurt by natural disasters. GDP is However, in several countries this performance may be affected expected to recover slightly in 2019, to 1.1%. This performance by political instability and trade disputes. is in line with additional budgetary measures which boost both salaries and corporate profits. In developed countries, GDP growth came to 2.3% in 2018, compared with 2.4% in 2017. Performances varied among the GDP growth in developing countries remained strong, coming to different countries. 4.6% in 2018, compared with 4.7% in 2017 and 4.5% forecast for 2019. However, the outlook varies significantly from one In the eurozone, growth has begun to slow, at 1.8% in 2018 and country to another. 1.6% in 2019F, compared with 2.4% in 2017. This slowdown In 2018, emerging Asian countries again enjoyed GDP growth is due mainly to weaker domestic demand and lower exports, of 6.5%. This performance was attributable mainly to the robust in a less favorable global context. The same conditions can be Indian economy (7.3% in 2018, compared with 6.7% in 2017). In seen in the core member states: Germany (1.5%, after 2.5% China, GDP growth slowed to 6.6% in 2018, compared with 6.9% in 2017), France (1.5%, after 2.3% in 2017), Italy (1.0%, after in 2017. This performance was impacted by more conservative 1.6% in 2017) and Spain (2.5%, after 3.0% in 2017). borrowing policies and by rising trade disagreements with the In the United States, the economy continued to grow vigorously, United States. Emerging European economies also experienced with GDP up 2.9% in 2018, compared with 2.2% in 2017. markedly slower GDP growth of 3.8% in 2018, compared with This performance was underpinned by tax cuts and reduced 6.0% in 2017. unemployment. The British economy contracted by 0.4 points, In sub-Saharan Africa, GDP growth in 2018 was unchanged with GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018. This performance was due from 2017, coming in at 2.9%. GDP growth in the Middle East largely to the prolonged uncertainty surrounding Brexit. totaled 2.4% in 2018, compared with 2.2% in 2017. GDP GROWTH 2017 2018E 2019F World 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% Developed countries 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% Eurozone 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% France 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% Germany 2.5% 1.5% 1.3% Spain 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% United Kingdom 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% United States 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% Japan 1.9% 0.9% 1.1% Emerging and developing countries 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% North Africa and Middle East 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% Sub-Saharan Africa 2.9% 2.9% 3.5% Source : IMF (January 2019) Monetary policy Inflation The European Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged in 2018, As a result of the various monetary policy measures taken by with interest rates at 0%. After suspending its quantitative easing central banks, inflation is close to the official target of 2% in program at the end of 2018, the ECB reaffirmed its accommodative developed countries (2% in 2018 and 1.7% forecast for 2019). monetary policy via key interest rates of 0%. In emerging economies, the consumer price index rose from The Fed raised rates four times in 2018, for a total of 100 bp. The 4.3% in 2017 to 4.9% in 2018. target range for the federal funds rate is 2.25%–2.5%. In 2019, the Fed is expected to continue tightening its monetary policy at a Oil market moderate rate, aiming for inflation of 2% over the medium term. After trending upwards in 2018 to an average of $81.03 dollars In addition, the Bank of England decided at its meeting last August in October, oil prices began to fall, ending the year at $54.14. This 1 to raise the bank rate by 25 bp, to 0.75%. decline is attributable to global supply and uncertain demand. 7 2018 Change in Brent prices in 2018 (USD) Key economic indicators, by country Budget balance Current account GDP (%) Inflation (%) 78.9 81.0 (% PIB) balance (%) 77.0 74.4 74.3 69.1 72.1 72.4 65.3 66.0 64.8 2018E 2019F 2018E 2019F 2018E 2019F 2018E 2019F 57.4 Tunisia 2.4 2.9 8.1 7.5 -5.2 -3.7 -9.6 -8.5 Mauritania 2.5 5.2 3.8 3.9 0.1 -0.1 -16.0 -17.2 Libya 10.9 10.8 28.1 17.9 -25.1 -26.9 1.5 2.9 Management report - Attijariwafa bank Egypt 5.3 5.5 13.9 12.6 -9.5 -8.1 -2.6 -2.4 IMF - October 2018 Jul-18 The region’s budget deficit came to –6.0% of GDP in 2018 (compared Jan.-18 Feb.-18 Mar.-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Sep.-18 Oct.-18 Nov.-18 Dec.-18 with –9.6% in 2017), weakened mainly by high budget balances in Libya (–25.1% in 2018) and, to a lesser extent, Egypt (–9.5% Africa in 2018). According to the latest estimates from the African Development WAEMU Bank, African economies continue to recover, with GDP growth of Surface area Population GDP per capita (2018 DATA) 3.5% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019F. This performance is due mainly (km²) (m) (USD) to East Africa (+5.7% in 2018 and 5.9% in 2019F), North Africa Benin 112,622 11.7 910 (4.3% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2019F) and, to a lesser extent, other Burkina Faso 274,200 19.5 753 regions on the continent. Ivory Coast 322,463 25.6 1,774 Niger 1,267,000 19.3 447 Economic indicators in Africa, by region Mali 1,240,192 19.5 837 GDP (%) Senegal 196,722 16.6 1,079 2018E 2019P Togo 56,785 7.9 675 Africa 3.5% 4.0% Source : IMF Central Africa 2.2% 3.6% East Africa 5.7% 5.9% Economic environment North Africa 4.3% 4.4% According to the latest figures from the IMF, GDP growth of the Southern Africa 1.2% 2.2% West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) remains West Africa 3.3% 3.6% steady, at 6.4% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019F. The WAEMU’s robust AfDB - January 2018 economic performance is attributable to rapid development in the This section describes the main changes in 2018 in the economic service sector, as well as in commercial and industrial activities. This environments of the countries where Attijariwafa bank does growth has been boosted by the development of transportation business. infrastructure, by the vitality of mining and manufacturing activities, North africa and by construction and public works, which continue to benefit GDP per capita from major infrastructure projects. (2018 data) Population (km2) Population (m) (USD) Key economic indicators, by country Tunisia 163,610 11.4 3,428 Solde 1,030,700 4.0 1,274 Solde courant Mauritania PIB (%) Inflation (%) budgétaire (% PIB) Libya 1,759,540 6.5 7,292 (% PIB) Egypt 1,001,450 94.4 2,412 2018E 2019F 2018E 2019F 2018E 2019F 2018E 2019F Source : IMF Benin 6.0 6.3 2.3 2.3 -4.7 -2.4 -10.6 -8.9 Economic environment Burkina Faso 5.9 6.0 2.0 2.0 -5.0 -3.0 -8.6 -7.6 Ivory Coast 7.4 7.0 1.7 2.0 -3.8 -3.0 -4.6 -4.2 In North Africa, GDP growth came to 4.3% in 2018 and should Niger 5.3 5.4 3.9 2.0 -5.9 -4.5 -16.2 -18.3 reach 4.4% in 2019F, according to AfDB forecasts. However, Mali 5.1 4.8 2.5 2.1 -3.3 -3.0 -7.2 -7.8 growth remains erratic because of the Libyan economy, which Senegal 7.0 6.7 0.4 0.9 -3.5 -3.0 -7.7 -7.1 Togo 4.7 5.0 0.4 1.2 -3.2 -0.7 -9.2 -8.0 was hurt by a rise in oil production. This rise in oil prices benefits IMF, October 2018 oil-exporting countries and places additional budgetary pressure on oil-importing countries. The region’s inflation rate came to 1.8% in 2018, still within the target ceiling of 2%. This rise in general price levels is due mainly GDP growth in North Africa benefited all countries in the region: to the food component, subsequent to higher cereal prices in Algeria (2.5% in 2018 vs.
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