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Management Report 2012 Management Report 2012 Management Report Attijariwafa bank, a limited company with a capital of MAD 2,012,430,860. Head office : 2, boulevard Moulay Youssef, Casablanca. Approved as a credit institution by order of the Minister of Finance and Privatization n° 2269-03 of the 22 December 2003 as amended and supplemented. Trade Register n° 333. Tel : +212 22 29 88 88 - www.attijariwafabank.com MAnAgeMent report MANAGEMENT REPORT 2012 MANAGEMENT REPORT 5 2012 MAnAgeMent report CONTENTS 6 18 20 eConoMIC BAnKIng AnD AnALYSIS oF enVIronMent FInAnCIAL AttIJArIWAFA BAnK’S enVIronMent BUSIneSS ACtIVItY AnD reSULtS 22 22 30 ApproprIAtIon BUSIneSS ACtIVItY gLoBAL rISK oF InCoMe AnD reSULtS oF tHe MAnAgeMent MAIn SUBSIDIArIeS 56 58 90 orDInArY ConSoLIDAteD pArent CoMpAnY generAL MeetIng FInAnCIAL FInAnCIAL reSoLUtIonS StAteMentS StAteMentS 114 ContACtS MAnAgeMent report Economic Environment Global economic environment: slower growth in 20121 In 2012, global economic activity continued to slow as a result of GDP growth was uneven across geographical regions. In high levels of government borrowing, financial sector weakness, developed countries, growth was weak primarily due to a an inadequate policy response in developed countries and weakened financial system and fiscal austerity measures domestic problems in emerging and developing economies. which had a negative impact on demand and employment. E The global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2012 E Growth was 1.4% in 2012 compared to 1.6% in 2011. compared to 3.9% in 2011 according to the latest International Emerging and developing countries on the other hand registered Monetary Fund estimates. GDP growth of 5.1% in 2012E, slower than the 6.3% rate in 2011. Quarterly GDP growth in main OECD countries (quarter-on-quarter percentage change) Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- 2011* 2012* 2013* 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 World - - - - - - - - 3.9 3.2 3.5 Eurozone 2.4 1.6 1.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 1.4 -0.4 -0.2 France 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 1.7 0.2 0.3 Germany 4.8 3.0 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 3.1 0.9 0.6 Spain 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.7 -1.4 -1.6 -1.9 0.4 -1.4 -1.5 United Kingdom 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 -0.2 1.0 United States 1.8 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.0 Japan 0.2 -1.7 -0.5 -0.1 3.3 4.0 0.4 0.4 -0.6 2.0 1.2 Source : OECD (*) : IMF – January 2013 In the United States, the economy saw an improvement with Brazil registering growth of only 1.0%, Russia 3.6%, India growth likely to be 2.3% in 2012E compared to 1.8% in 2011. This 4.5% and China 7.8% compared to 2.7%, 4.3%, 7.9% and 9.3% was attributable to a recovery in domestic demand due to an respectively in 2011. improvement in the jobs market and the real estate sector. The International trade in goods and services in 2012: unemployment rate fell to 8.2% in December 2012. The downtrend in international trade, which had begun in The Eurozone economy saw further contraction with GDP of 2011, continued through 2012. Trade volumes rose by 2.8% in -0.4% in 2012E compared to 1.4% in 2011. France and Germany 2012E compared to 5.9% the previous year and 12.7% in 2010 registered GDP growth of 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. Spain’s primarily due to a slowdown in the global economy. Exports rose economy, on the other hand, contracted 1.4% in 2012. The by 2.5% in 2012 but at a slower pace than the 20-year historical unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued to trend up and average annual growth rate of 5.5% according to World Trade reached 11.2% at 31 December 2012. Organisation estimates. The United Kingdom economy is expected to have contracted by Inflation and oil prices: 0.2% in 2012E compared to +0.9% in 2011. • Global inflationary pressures eased mainly due to the impact Japan’s economy grew by 2.0% in 2012E after a decrease of of falling global demand, particularly in emerging countries. -0.6% in 2011. Consumer price inflation is likely to be 2.0% and 1.6% in 2012E E Emerging countries experienced broadly slower growth due and in 2013 respectively in advanced countries compared to E P to a slight increase in exports, and a decline in domestic 2.7% in 2011 and 6.1% in 2012 and also in 2013 in emerging demand. The BRIC countries registered slower growth with and developing countries compared to 7.2% in 2011. (1) - Source: IMF, World Bank, Direction de Politique Economique Générale, Banque Al Maghrib 6 Inflation steady at 8.4% in 2012 • Oil prices were impacted by concerns over the global economic Inflation is likely to have risen by 8.4% in 2012E compared to outlook and constantly high levels of oil production and reserves 8.5% in 2011. This was due to inclement weather in a number in 2012. According to the IMF, the average oil price was $105.1 of countries resulting in rising commodity prices. per barrel in 2012 compared to $104.0 per barrel in 2011 and Inflation rose by as much as 17% in East Africa in 2011 due to is estimated to be $99.7 per barrel in 2013P. currency depreciation. This required a tightening of monetary Euro-dollar exchange rate: policy to combat inflationary pressures. Inflation is likely to be 16.5% in 2012. • On foreign exchange markets, the euro trended up during 2012 to reach $1.32 at the year end, a rise of 1.9% on 2011. This Inflation levels are expected to vary considerably from one region rise was primarily due to easing concerns about the Eurozone to another in 2012. crisis according to the IMF. Inflation by African region (%) African economies: review and outlook 2011 2012 After the downturn in 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring Africa 8.5% 8.4% uprisings, the African economy is likely to rebound in 2012. Central Africa 4.5% 5.5% The outlook remains uncertain, however, due to the economic East Africa 17.0% 16.5% environment in Europe. North Africa 7.4% 7.0% Growth rebound in Africa estimated at 4.5% in 2012 Southern Africa 6.7% 6.8% compared to 3.4% in 2011 West Africa 8.8% 8.5% E Economic growth in Africa is estimated at 4.5% in 2012 Source: AfDB compared to 3.4% in 2011 and 4.8% in 2013 E according to African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates. North Africa (excluding Egypt) At a regional level, North Africa is recovering steadily after the social tensions of 2011 which mainly concerned Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. GDP growth estimates for the region have been revised up to 3.1% for 2012 compared to 0.5% in 2011. Tunisia In sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth remains strong with Morocco GDP growth in excess of 5% in 2012, mainly boosted by robust Algeria domestic demand. Libya Despite the crisis in Mali which has seen the north of the country occupied by Tuareg rebels proclaiming independence, West African economies have proved remarkably resilient. Mauritania E MaliMali Growth is likely to be 6.9% in 2012 compared to 6.2% in 2011. NigeNigerr Despite the worst drought to affect the Horn of Africa in SeneSenegalgal 60 years, East African economies registered growth of 5.1% Surface area: 6 million sq. km in 2012E compared to 6.0% in 2011. Population growth: 1.9% GDP growth in Southern Africa was 4.0% in 2012E, while Central Population : 90.0 million Africa registered growth of around 5%. - Morocco: 32.5 million GDP growth by African region (%) - Tunisia: 10.8 million 2011 2012 - Libya: 6.6 million - Mauritania: 3.6 million Africa 3.4% 4.5% - Algeria: 36.5 million Central Africa 5.1% 4.9% Currencies: Dirhams, Dinars, Ouguiyas East Africa 6.0% 5.1% North Africa 0.5% 3.1% Source: IMF Southern Africa 3.5% 4.0% West Africa 6.2% 6.9% Source: AfDB 7 MAnAgeMent report Tunisia Annual GDP growth (%) Economic growth of 2.7% likely in 2012 compared to 121.9% -1.8% in 2011 Following a year of political turmoil in 2011, Tunisia’s economic recovery was particularly anaemic in 2012. Unfavourable 2.4% 3.7% economic conditions in Europe and around the world had an -1.4% impact on the Tunisian economy. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -59.7% Annual GDP growth (%) Source: IMF 4.5% 3.1% 3.1% This record economic performance was predominantly due 2.7% to hydrocarbon production, accounting for 70% of GDP and 95% of export revenue. In the wake of the revolution, hydrocarbon production, Libya’s 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 main revenue source, rose frenetically to reach almost 90% of -1.8% pre-crisis levels i.e. 1.52 million barrels per day in June 2012 Source: IMF compared to an average of 166,000 barrels per day in 2011. According to the latest IMF estimates, Tunisia’s GDP is likely According to the IMF, this recovery is likely to result in a rise to grow by 2.7% in 2012 compared to -1.8% in 2011.
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