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Deliverable 1.2 Process knowledge from existing data PAradigm for Novel Dynamic Oceanic Resource Assessments Grant agreement No: 773713 Project funded by the European Commission within the Horizon 2020 Programme Start date of project: 1st May 2018 Duration: 48 months Deliverable D 1.2 Process knowledge from existing data Due date of deliverable: Project month 18, 31 October 2019 Actual submission date: Dissemination Level: CO1 Type of deliverable: Report Main Authors: Alexander Kemp, Patricia Reglero, Rudi Voss, Pascal Lorance, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Jane Behrens, Øyvind Fiksen WP Leader: Jane Behrens, DTU 1 PU: Public, PP: Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services), RE: Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services), CO: Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) PANDORA Project The Blue Growth of European fisheries is at risk due to over-exploitation, unforeseen changes in stock productivity, loss of markets for capture fisheries due to aquaculture, future trade agreements opening European markets to external fleets, and fluctuations in the price of oil and other business costs. All of these risks need to be considered when providing advice needed to sustainably maximize profits for the diverse array of fisheries operating in European waters and to help safeguard the benefits this sector provides to the social coherence of local, coastal communities. PANDORA aims to: 1. Create more realistic assessments and projections of changes in fisheries resources (30 stocks) by utilizing new biological knowledge (spatial patterns, environmental drivers, food-web interactions and density-dependence) including, for the first time, proprietary data sampled by pelagic fishers. 2. Advice on how to secure long-term sustainability of EU fish stocks (maximum sustainable/”pretty good” and economic yields) and elucidate tradeoffs between profitability and number of jobs in their (mixed demersal, mixed pelagic and single species) fisheries fleets. Provide recommendations on how to stabilize the long-term profitability of European fisheries. 3. Develop a public, internet-based resource tool box (PANDORAs Box of Tools), including assessment modelling and stock projections code, economic models, and region- and species- specific decision support tools; increase ownership and contribution opportunities of the industry to the fish stock assessment process through involvement in data sampling and training in data collection, processing and ecosystem-based fisheries management. The project will create new knowledge (via industry-led collection, laboratory and field work, and theoretical simulations), new collaborative networks (industry, scientists and advisory bodies) and new mechanisms (training courses and management tools) to ensure relevance, utility and impact. Project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 773713 Deliverable data Project / Grant Agreement 773713 Number Project title and acronym PAradigm for Novel Dynamic Oceanic Resource Assessments Type of action: RIA, Research and Innovation action Call identifier: H2020-SFS-2017-2 Topic: SFS-21-2016-2017 Advancing basic biological knowledge and improving management tools for commercially important fish and other seafood species Starting date: 01.05.1018 Duration: 48 months Work Package(s) / Task(s): Work Package 1/ Task 1.2 Lead beneficiary: DTU Aqua / University of Bergen Main author: Øyvind Fiksen Co-authors: Jane Behrens, Jane Behrens, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Rudi Voss, Bernhard Kühn, Alexander Kempf, Tobias van Kooten, Patricia Reglero, Manuel Hidalgo, Pascal Lorance, Chris Griffiths, Oliver Hogg, Hayley Bannister, Myron Peck, Paolo Domenici, Matteo Sinerchia, Francesco Colloca, Stefano Marras, Gary Carvalho, Dimitrios Damalas, Diego Alvarez-Berastegui Date of delivery: 31.10.2019 Deliverable type: Report Date of internal approval 29.10.2019 (for the submission to EC) Approved by: (name) Stefan Neuenfeldt Keywords: Ecology, Marine biology, Fishery, Ecosystem-based fisheries management, management reference points, recruitment, density dependence, stock assessment Contributing partners No. Short name Full name Name and contact info of persons involved Editors: 7 UiB University of Bergen Øyvind Fiksen [email protected] 1 DTU-Aqua Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Jane Behrens, Stefan Neuenfeldt [email protected] Contributors: 9 CAU Christian-Albrechts-Universität Rudi Voss zu Kiel [email protected] 14 TI Thünen Institut für Seefischerei Bernhard Kühn bernhard.kü[email protected] Alexander Kempf [email protected] 16 WR Stichting Wageningen Research Tobias van Kooten [email protected] 6 IEO Instituto Español de Oceanografia Patricia Reglero [email protected] Manuel Hidalgo [email protected] 8 IFREMER Institut Française pour Pascal Lorance l’Exploratation de la Mer [email protected] 5 CEFAS Centre for Environment, Fisheries Chris Griffiths and Aquaculture [email protected] Oliver Hogg, Hayley Bannister 4 UHAM University of Hamburg Myron Peck [email protected] 3 IAMC-CNR Italian National Research Council Paolo Domenici, Matteo Oristano Sinerchia, Francesco Colloca, Stefano Marras [email protected] 2 BU Bangor University Gary Carvalho [email protected] 11 HCMR Hellenic Centre for Marine Dimitrios Damalas Research [email protected] 18 SOCIB Balearic Islands Coastal Diego Alvarez-Berastegui Observing and Forecasting [email protected] System Organization across regions: The North Sea: Alexander Kempf (TI), UHAM, CEFAS, DTU, WR Eastern Baltic Sea: Rudi Voss (CAU), DTU, BU Bay of Biscay: Pascal Lorance (IFREMER) The Mediterranean Sea: Patricia Reglero (IEO), HCMR, IAMC, SOCIB Document history Version Date Description 01 1.0 Initial version, Øyvind Fiksen 02 14th Sept First collection of contributions 03 25th Sept All parts collected, first complete draft 04 10th Oct Revision 1 05 29th Oct Revision 2 1 Contents List of symbols and abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 8 2 Executive summary .............................................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Defining the Challenge .......................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Approach ............................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Contribution to the project ................................................................................................... 12 2.5 Summary of existing knowledge from each region ............................................................... 12 2.5.1 The North Sea ................................................................................................................ 12 2.5.2 The Baltic Sea ................................................................................................................ 13 2.5.3 Bay of Biscay .................................................................................................................. 14 2.5.4 The Mediterranean Sea ................................................................................................. 14 3 List of Annexes ........................................................................................................................................................ 15 4 Status and planned activities within each region .................................................................................... 15 4.1 The North Sea ........................................................................................................................ 15 4.1.1 The regional scoping of management needs ................................................................ 15 4.1.2 Recruitment dynamics in cod, herring, haddock, saithe, whiting ................................. 16 4.1.3 Knowledge and data gaps in North Sea stocks .............................................................. 24 4.1.4 Climate change impacts on the distribution of North Sea stocks and predicted shifts in distribution .................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.5 Knowledge and Data Gaps for climate change scenarios ............................................. 28 4.1.6 Density dependent effects with focus on North Sea flatfish ........................................ 29 4.1.7 Stock/Spatial structure of North Sea cod and Plaice ..................................................... 31 4.1.8 Available knowledge on North Sea food web interactions relevant for stock assessments and fisheries management. ...................................................................................... 33 4.1.9 Activities in PANDORA to fill the gaps (or needs) – The North Sea ............................... 36 4.2 Eastern Baltic Sea .................................................................................................................. 39 Existing knowledge relevant to the needs – Eastern Baltic Sea .................................................... 39 4.2.1 Abiotic factors
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