IAAE Inter-Conference Symposium Agricultural Transitions along the Silk Road Restructuring, Resources and Trade in the Central Asia Region 4 - 6 April 2016 | ,

Land cover dynamics and water management in basin of river Ile on base of satellite data

Alexey Terekhov, Svetlana Dolgikh

RSE "Kazhydromet", Kazakhstan;

[email protected]

Central Asian regional map

KAZAKHSTAN Lake

River basin Aral Sea 140,000 sq.km

Yining Almaty Uzbekistan

Kyrgystan Lake Issyk-Kul

CHINA 4-year’s average river Ile runoff (164 km, near boundary KZ - China) [daily]

M 3 / sec Why ?

Day Agricultural landcover dynamics in river Ile basin Landsat images covering of river Ile basin [http:/glovis.usgs.gov] 1983 - current time

Arable land in river Ili basin Created on base of LANDSAT 1999-2002 years. Expert interpretation and hand mapping

Lake Balkhash Total arable land area (about 1,000,000 ha)

KZ 45% 55% CH

KZ CHINA Yining

Almaty Fragment of arable land map (on base of satellite data 1999-2002 years) Types of cropland practice in river Ili basin

River Ili BASIN Irrigated Not irrigated 17% Cropland area Kazakhstan 83% KZ CH 38% Cropland 34% Not irrigated 62% winter crops Irrigated area 66% Spring crops Cropland Irrigated area

Irrigated Not irrigated Arable land area change during 2003-2010 years in China part of river Ili basin. Created on base of LANDSAT data

KZ CHINA

Input since 2003

12 %

88%

Before 2003 Time of beginning Cropland Land use 2010 Before 2003 During 2003-2010 Example of land use change fragment of river Ili basin [China] Landsat data

2000 2009

5 000 m 5 000 m Artificial Reservoirs, Natural Lakes in basin of river Ile Artificial reservoirs in China’s part of river Ile basin China

Before River Kas 2005 1990 2010 2011 River Kunges River Ile 2009 River Tekes 2005 2012

2015 Zharyntaisky reservoir River Ile River Kunges River Ile

Kapchagaisky reservoir

Landsat -8 June 4, 2015 Landsat images of reservoir № 4 (Zharyntaysky) on river Kas Landsat images of reservoir № 1 on river Tekes.

Landsat images of reservoir № 2 (Kapchagaysky) on river Tekes.

Landsat images of reservoir № 3 on river Tekes.

Landsat images of reservoir № 5 on river Tekes.

Water deposit dynamic of artificial reservoirs in China’s part of river Ili basin

Water deposit in artificial reservoirs [2010] 106 m3 CH KZ River Ili basin [China] 17%

83%

Total volume

CH KZ

Estimation on base of Landsat images and satellite DEM . Operational part of volume reservoir mirror (river Tekes, China) in presentation of Landsat data and DEM [Google-Earth Elevation]

Altitude, (Meter) over sea level

River Tekes DEM: SRTM-2000 Elevation of Kapchagay (river Tekes) reservoir zone fragment of granule: 43n-82e

Altitude Time series of main parameters of (riv. Tekes, China) in framework of satellite data and DEM Km 2

Year Water mirror area (m), over sea level

Year 10 6 M3 Altitute of reservoir water mirror

Year Water deposite in reservoir Satellite monitoring of water deposite in operational part of Kapchagay reservoir (riv. Tekes, China) during 2005-2015 years Water volume

Year Satellite monitoring of annual water balance between Kapchagay reservoir and river Tekes flow during 2007-2015 years М3\ sec 600 Aver 2007 500 2008 2009 400 2010 2011 2012 300 2013 2014 200 2015

100 Day 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 -100

-200 Change of river Tekes hydrograph as result of Kapchagay reservoir influence

sec

After

Before

M o n t h Different kinds of annual accumulation regimes of Kapchagay reservoir

M 3 / sec

Dry year High-water year

April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. M o n t h Satellite monitoring of water deposite in

Zharyntaysky reservoir (river Kas, China)

part

operational operational

in Deposite Deposite

Year Many years average water balance between Zharyntaysky reservoir and river Kas outflow on base of satellite data during 2007-2015 years

sec

Day in year

INCREASING

R E S E R V O I R I O V R E S E R DECREASING Change of river Kas hydrograph as result of

Zharyntaysky reservoir influence

River flow River After

Before

M o n t h Satellite monitoring of water deposite in artificial reservoirs on territory of China river Ile basin during 2005-2016 years

Sum of Kapchagay and Zharyntay reservoirs

Deposite Depositeparts operational in

Year Water deposit in operational parts of two main artificial reservoirs in China part of river Ile basin on January 01 in seasons of 2007-2016 years

Year Satellite monitoring of water deposite in operational parts of [Kapchagay+Zharyntay] reservoirs during 2014 – 2016 years

Many years maximum

Many years minimum Water volumes aimed at the completion of the largest artificial reservoirs (Kapchagay, Zharyntay) during May – September of 2007-2015 years. Satellite estimation

Year Interannual water volume regulation of river Ile runoff with help of Kapchagay and Zharyntay reservoirs in China part of river Ile basin. Satellite estimation.

Blue – the support of river Ile flow due to stocks of previous years;

Orange – the removal from the current river Ilr flow to roiling stock

Year Kazakhstan part of river Ile basin

Balkhash lake as end water body in river Ili basin Northern Tien-Shan mountain

Kapchagay reservoir

River Ili Alakol gulf

Balhash Lakes Balhash lake: Water mirror area – 16,4 thousands km2 Volume – 112 km3 Satellite diagnostic of water level in Balkhash lake in period 1975-2012 years Landsat images of Alakol gulf

1975 1979 1994 1998 1999 2000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Levels of Balhash lake during 1996-2013 years [daily data]

Annual (01.01 – 31.12) change of Bahash lake level and volume during 1996-2013 years

sm km3

Volume change Volume Level change Level Foto near lake Balkhash (July 2010) Level of Kapchagay reservoir (river Ile, KZ) during 1996-2013 year (daily data)

sm

L e v e l e v e L

sm

L e v e l e v e L

sm

L e v e l e v e L River flow: - satellite estimation in China’s part of river Ile basin; - ground data in Kazakh part of river Ile basin. River Kas [China] flow with different runoff level

LANDSAT images August 12, 2014 August 3, 1999

River Ile

about 50 m3/ sec about 500 m3/ sec River Tekes [China] flow with different runoff level

LANDSAT images April 11, 2013 Augustl 9, 2013

about 90 m3/ sec about 900 m3/ sec

3 km Relation between ground and satellite (Landsat) data of river Kas charge during 1989-2015 years

River runoff

M 3 / sec

Satellite estimation Satellite

River M 3 / sec runoff Ground data (average monthly) Satellite diagnostic of runoff in the downstream of river Kas during 1996-2015 years

M 3/ sec M 3/ sec

M 3/ sec Satellite estimation Ground data

Many year average

M 3/ sec The share of the annual river Kas [China] flow addressed to water conduits bypassing its mouth. Satellite estimation Share of annual river flow

Year Satellite estimation of river Tekes [China] annual hydrographs during 2010-2015 years

M3/ sec M3/ sec M3/ sec

M o n t h M o n t h M o n t h Satellite estimation of river Tekes [China] runoff during May – October of 2010-2015 years

Year River Tekes [China] runoff during [May – October] on base of ground data (1957-2010) and satellite estimation (2009-2015) years

Ground Year data Satellite estimation Daily water level of river Ile (164 km, KZ) during 1996 – 2013 years 0 (mark) - 483 m BS sm Daily river Ile runoff (164 km, KZ) during 1996 – 2013 years

M 3 / sec Relation between river Ile level and its runoff (164 км) [April – November] during 1996-2013 years (daily data) М 3 \ sec

1400 1996 1997 1200 1998

1999 2000 1000 2001 2004 2005 800 2006 2007

River runoff River 2008 2009 600 2010 2011 2012 400 2013

200 200 250 300 350 400 450 River level, (sm) Relation between annual averages river Ile levels and its runoff (164 км, KZ) during 1996-2013 years without 2008 and 2010 data

[M3 / sec] / [sm] [April – November]

Year River Ile state in presentation of LANDSAT 01.08.1996; h=298 sm, 863 м3\sec; 14.08.2013; h=304 sm, 401 м3\sec.

01 August 1996

14 August 2013 Daily water level in river Ile (37 km, KZ) during 1996 – 2013 years 0 (mark) - 427.76 m BS Daily data sm Daily river Ile runoff (37 km, KZ) during 1996 – 2013 years M3 / sec Daily data Relation between river Ile level and its runoff (37 км) [April – November] during 1996-2013 years (daily data) М 3 \ sec 1996 800 1997 750 1998 1999 700

2000

650 2001 600 2002 2004 550 2005 500 River runoff River 2006 450 2009 400 2010 2011 350 2012 300 2013 370 390 410 430 450 470 2007 River level, (sm) Relation between annual averages river Ile levels and its runoff [37 km] during 1996-2013 years

[ M3/sec] / [sm]

Year Comparison between river Ile runoff [164 km] and calculated inflow in Kapchagay reservoir (river Ile runoff [37 km] plus Kapchagay reservoir volume change)

[ M3/sec] M o n t h

Day Black - river Ile runoff [164 km]; Red - calculated inflow Comparison between river Ile runoff [164 km, KZ] and calculated inflow in Kapchagay reservoir (river Ile runoff [37 km] plus Kapchagay reservoir volume change)

M o n t h [ M3/sec]

Day Black - river Ile runoff [164 km]; Red - calculated inflow Relation between average annual change of lake Balkhash level and relevant river Ile runoff [37 km] during 1996 – 2013 years

3 M / sec Original ground data Corrected river runoff data

sm Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Lake level change Conclusion

Informational deficite about territory state of transboundary river basins to create questions about food and water security, unstable economic development and stability of the region ecology

. Part of tasks of control over water management and agriculture landuse can be carried out with help of the remote sensing data, including the satellite images.

For China part of transboundary basin of river Ile the satellite data can be use for estimations: - water management; - water deposite in artificial reservoirs, - river charge and river flow, includung main tributaries; - river hydrograph change after artificial reservoir building; - land cover and land use change. Thanks for attention Спасибо за внимание