Effectiveness of Ring Roads in Reducing Traffic Congestion

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Article Eﬀectiveness of Ring Roads in Reducing Traﬃc Congestion in Cities for Long Run: Big Almaty Ring Road Case Study

Assel Nugmanova 1 , Wulf-Holger Arndt 2, Md Aslam Hossain 1 and Jong Ryeol Kim 1,*

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan 010000, Kazakhstan 2 Centre for Technology and Society, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +7-7172-70-91-36

Received: 29 May 2019; Accepted: 22 July 2019; Published: 11 September 2019

Abstract: It is common to increase road capacity by constructing ring roads to reduce traffic congestion in city areas, although this is often found to be ineffective in the long run. Accordingly, this study investigates various traffic congestion management approaches and their effectiveness in major cities, and explores an identical transport problem in Almaty, Kazakhstan: The Big Almaty Ring Road (BAKAD). Several case examples from the existing literature are examined in which various approaches were taken for managing traffic congestion problems, and these approaches are classified into three concepts. The first concept comprises heavy engineering measures such as ring road development, new road construction, expansion of existing roads, etc. Such measures can initially reduce traffic congestion, but often become ineffective with time due to the generation of induced traffic. Many cities have taken Push and Pull measures that ensure more efficient use of existing capacity and have initiated environmentally friendly alternative transportation modes such as decreased car usage; promotion of public transport, biking and walking; minimization of the necessity of people’s movement by changing urban land use patterns; and so on. These approaches have been found to be effective in providing sustainable transportation solutions and are classified as concept 2. Nevertheless, Push and Pull measures might not be enough for managing traffic congestion, and it might be necessary to increase the road capacity through heavy engineering measures, especially if the city experiences heavy transit traffic. This combined approach is categorized as concept 3. Consequently, the BAKAD project is examined under the umbrella of three concepts, and recommendations are provided based on the findings from the experience of different cities and interviews with experts from Almaty city. Both the results and recommendations developed are relevant for this specific case only, and are not necessarily transferable.

Keywords: induced traﬃc; traﬃc congestion; car use; travel demand management

1. Introduction The economic cost and environmental impact of traffic jams in large metropolitan areas are enormous. For example, the Canadian Taxpayer Alliance found that the cost of traffic was more than $1.5 billion annually without considering the economic costs associated with an extensive consumption of greenhouse gases and severe damage to the environment due to smog generated by inefficiently operated vehicles [1]. In Moscow, a driver lost 127 h per year in traffic congestion [2]. Moreover, in Europe, traffic congestion accounted for 20.3% of total green-house gas emissions, where 88.2% of all GHG emissions were CO2. Traffic congestion was also reported as the main source of other air pollutant emissions, such as NOx (58%), NMVOC (18%), CO (30%), SOx (21%), PM2.5 (27%) and

Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973; doi:10.3390/su11184973 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 27 Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 2 of 26

PM2.5 (27%) and PM10 (22%) [3,4]. Many ways to combat traffic congestion have been applied worldwide, and the main goal of these practices is to reduce the time spent on the roads. Traffic PM10 (22%) [3,4]. Many ways to combat traffic congestion have been applied worldwide, and the engineersmain goal ofsee these one practicessolution to is tothe reduce congestion the time proble spentm onas thethe roads.provision Traffi ofc engineersadditional see road one capacity, solution suchto the as congestion through ring problem road development, as the provision road of extens additionalion, rail-over-road road capacity, grade such asseparation, through ringfly overs, road intersectiondevelopment, improvement, road extension, parking rail-over-road lot development, grade separation, toll road incentives fly overs, and intersection so on. One improvement, of the most parkingwidely used lot development, mitigation measures toll road in incentives reducing andcong soestion on. Oneis the of construction/development the most widely used mitigation of ring roadmeasures systems. in reducing congestion is the construction/development of ring road systems. Almaty is the most densely populated city in Kazakhstan, with a large number of cars and heavy tratraffic,ffic, which which tremendously tremendously worsen worsen the current the ecologicalcurrent situation.ecological Tosituation. prevent environmentalTo prevent environmentaldegradation of thedegradation region, as of well the asregion, to relieve as well the as urban to relieve roadnetwork the urban in road Almaty network by diverting in Almaty transit by diverting transit traffic from it, the Big Almaty Ring Road (BAKAD) project has been initiated. traffic from it, the Big Almaty Ring Road (BAKAD) project has been initiated. However, the long-term However, the long-term effectiveness of ring road developments in solving congestion problem is effectiveness of ring road developments in solving congestion problem is mistakenly exaggerated due mistakenly exaggerated due to the exclusion of induced traffic demand phenomena [5]. to the exclusion of induced traffic demand phenomena [5]. In this research, different approaches to reducing traffic congestion and their effectiveness in In this research, different approaches to reducing traffic congestion and their effectiveness in the long run are investigated for major cities around the world. Accordingly, the objectives of this the long run are investigated for major cities around the world. Accordingly, the objectives of this study are to classify these cities’ traffic congestion reduction plans into different concepts and to study are to classify these cities’ traffic congestion reduction plans into different concepts and to compare them to see if building a ring road (bypass) is effective in solving the problem of traffic jams compare them to see if building a ring road (bypass) is effective in solving the problem of traffic jams in the metropolitan areas in the long run by means of decreasing through traffic and personal car in the metropolitan areas in the long run by means of decreasing through traffic and personal car use. use. Consequently, the findings will form the basis for recommendations to address identical Consequently, the findings will form the basis for recommendations to address identical transport transport problems in Almaty city, Kazakhstan, considering the new bypass road—the Big Almaty problems in Almaty city, Kazakhstan, considering the new bypass road—the Big Almaty Ring Road Ring Road (BAKAD) project, which is under construction. (BAKAD) project, which is under construction.

2. Literature Literature Review Review

2.1. Methods Methods Used to Reduce Traffic Traffic CongestionCongestion Polegate, Newbury and other cities in the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands have applied heavyheavy engineeringengineering measures measures only only in solvingin solving traffi trafficc congestion, congestion, without without any sustainable any sustainable urban urbantransport transport policy policy measures. measures. Heavy Heavy engineering engineering measures measures refer to refer building to building a new ringa new road, ring a bypass,road, a bypass,a tunnel a or tunnel road widening.or road widening. It was found It was that, found in cases that, within cases application with application of heavy engineeringof heavy engineering measures measuresonly, there only, was anthere initial was temporary an initial relieftemporary of traffi reliefc congestion, of traffic untilcongestion, induced un tratilffi inducedc filled up traffic the added filled uptransport the added capacity. transport The capacity. evidence The of theevidence induced of the tra ffiinducedc phenomenon traffic phenomenon is taken from is taken the reports from the of post-openingreports of post-opening project evaluations project evaluations (POPE, by Highways(POPE, by England) Highways of England) bypass/ring of roads.bypass/ring These roads. POPE Thesereports POPE compared reports the compared outturn impactsthe outturn of newimpacts ring of and new bypass ring and roads bypass with roads the forecasted with the forecasted values of valuestraffic flows,of traffic and flows, environmental and environmental and economic and ec impacts.onomic Post-evaluationimpacts. Post-evaluation is conducted is conducted one year andone yearfive yearsand five after years the openingafter the ofopening a new road.of a new Figure road.1 summarizes Figure 1 summarizes the POPE the method. POPE method.

Figure 1. Approach to the POPE of major schemes. Source: [6]. [6]. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 3 of 26 Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 27

AsAs anan alternativealternative method,method, insteadinstead ofof heavyheavy engineeringengineering measures,measures, Hasselt,Hasselt, Hague,Hague, Utrecht,Utrecht, Malmö,Malmö, Seoul,Seoul, Auckland Auckland and and other other cities cities applied applie transportationd transportation or travel or travel demand demand management management only, withonly, “Push with and“Push Pull measures”and Pull measures” for improving for tra improvingﬃc congestion. traffic These congestion. Push and These Pull measures Push and refer Pull to sustainablemeasures refer mobility to sustainable policy with mobility a coherent policy set ofwith technological, a coherent socialset of andtechnological, urban design social interventions. and urban Thedesign components interventions. of these The measures components are shownof these in measures Figure2. are shown in Figure 2.

FigureFigure 2. 2.Push Push andand PullPull measures.measures.

Moreover,Moreover, Stockholm, Stockholm, Oslo, Oslo, Helsinki, Helsinki, Milan, Milan, Gothenburg, Gothenburg, and other an citiesd other have cities used ahave combination used a ofcombination both heavy of engineering both heavy measures engineering and measures complementary and complementary Push and Pull Push measures and Pull to solvemeasures traﬃ toc congestionsolve traffic problems. congestion For problems. example, Stockholm’sFor example, plan Stockholm’s to reduce traplanﬃ cto congestion reduce traffic consisted congestion of the openingconsisted of of the the southern opening bypass of the along southern with bypass other complimentary along with other measures complimentary such as congestion measures charges, such as improvementcongestion charges, of public improvement transport services,of public development transport services, of pedestrian development spaces of and pedestrian application spaces of compactand application spatial planning.of compact spatial planning.

2.2.2.2. RingRing RoadsRoads againstagainst TraTrafficffic Congestion Congestion InIn thethe 1930s,1930s, the first first ring ring roads roads were were built built ar aroundound Berlin, Berlin, Munich Munich and and London. London. In the In thepast, past, the thedevelopment development of ofring ring roads roads was was not not specifically specifically planned planned to to decrease decrease congestion in Europe,Europe, sincesince therethere werewere nono tratrafficffic jamsjams ononthe the roads roads at at that that time time [ 7[7].]. RingRing roadsroads werewere intendedintended toto “reveal“reveal andand reinforcereinforce organicorganic spatialspatial structurestructure ofof cities, cities,and and to to make make monumental monumental artefacts” artefacts” [[8].8]. Moreover,Moreover, afterafter thethe SecondSecond WorldWorld War,War, the the number number of of cars cars started started toto increaseincrease tremendously,tremendously, andand thisthis boostedboosted thethe constructionconstruction of of ring ring roads roads in in many many developed developed countries. countries. Ring Ring roads roads decentralize decentralize traffi ctraffic movement movement from thefrom existing, the existing, heavily heavily congested, congested, roads inroads the cityin the centre city centre by providing by providing alternate alternate routes routes for tra ffiforc flows.traffic Consequently,flows. Consequently, ring roads ring reduce roads the reduce congestion the congesti by relievingon by pressurerelieving onpressure inner city on areas.inner Moreover,city areas. ringMoreover, roads allow ring channellingroads allow ofchannelling unwanted of tra unwantedffic flow so tr thataffic transit flow cargoso that flows transit or othercargo throughflows or tra otherffic dothrough not enter traffic the do city not centre, enter and the docity not centre, generate and congestiondo not generate in the congestion core area. Thein the other core function area. The of other ring roadsfunction is to of shape ring theroads structure is to shape of the the city, structure as its urban of the spatial city, structure as its urban starts spatial to decentralize structure towardsstarts to thedecentralize ring road ortowards exurban the areas, ring androad the or cityexurban expands; areas, at and the samethe city time, expands; a ring road at the provides same time, a physical a ring barrierroad provides for the growing a physical city. barrier Nevertheless, for the growing suburbanization city. Nevertheless, or turning suburbanization rural locationsinto or turning settlements rural thatlocations can be into reached settlements only by that car can increases be reached dependence only by car on carsincreases in cases dependence with limited on cars public in cases transport with options.limited Moreover,public transport the development options. Moreover, of ring roads, the dev togetherelopment with traof ffiringc congestion roads, together growth with in the traffic city centres,congestion has broughtgrowth aboutin the substantialcity centres, change has brought in the distribution about substantial of intra-metropolitan change in the accessibility distribution [ 9of]. “Theintra-metropolitan most accessible accessibility points by car [9]. are “The no longer most located accessible in the points centre by of car the are city; no because longer accessibilitylocated in the is oftencentre highest of the along city; thebecause orbital accessibility corridors, much is ofte ofn the highest suburban along decentralization the orbital corridors, process has much gravitated of the towardssuburban these decentralization areas” [9]. Some process authors has gravitated [10] state towards that construction these areas” of ring[9]. Some roads authors stimulates [10] localstate business,that construction as ring roads of ring nowadays roads servestimulates both transport local business, functions as and ring boost roads business nowadays growth, serve develop both economictransport areas,functions and decentralize and boost employment business growth from the, develop inner city economic to exurban areas, locations. and Ring decentralize roads do notemployment just enhance from the accessibilitythe inner city of suburbanto exurban municipalities; locations. Ring they alsoroads increase do not property just enhance values andthe accessibility of suburban municipalities; they also increase property values and make them more attractive to investors [11]. Hence, ring roads decentralize activities, and at the same time increase Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 4 of 26 make them more attractive to investors [11]. Hence, ring roads decentralize activities, and at the same time increase flows between suburbs, causing progressive congestion of these roads. This eventually increases demand for new orbitals farther from the city centre [11]. “A meta-analysis of dozens of studies found that, on average, a 10 percent increase in lane miles induces an immediate 4 percent increase in vehicle miles travelled, which climbs to 10 percent—the entire new capacity—in a few years” [12]. Thus, it can be said that building more ring roads will not actually reduce traffic congestion problems in the long run, but rather will actually induce an increase in new car users and lead to a severely degraded environment due to additional peak-period vehicle travel or “generated traffic”.

2.3. Generated Traffic The components of generated traffic due to new road capacity are of two types: diverted traffic that shifts with respect to time, route and destination; and induced traffic, which shifts with regard to other modes, longer trips and new vehicle trips [13]. Generated traffic refers to the statements “the more you build, the more drivers will come” and “roads themselves generate traffic”. Thus, any improvement made to a transport structure, whether it is a widening of an existing road with added lanes or the development of a ring road, will encourage more people to use that new transport facility. At first glance, it seems that the new development provides travel time benefits and better traffic flow [14]. Hence, congestion problems might presumably have been solved. Nevertheless, the new road facility attracts new drivers and changes home/work locations in the long run, which eventually generates new traffic [14]. Therefore, ignoring the long-term effects of induced traffic demand hardly solves congestion problems. For example, one year after opening the North Sea Channel section of the Amsterdam Ring Road, the total number of trips increased by 8%, of which 3% was the result of autonomous growth (2% home–work commuters), and 5% was the result of new drivers accumulated due to improved transport infrastructure; this is considered to be induced demand. Of this 5% induced demand: 2% of car kilometres were due to a shift in routes, 1% was due to passengers who had decided to become drivers, and 2% more traffic was produced by shifts in destination and trip frequency [15]. Furthermore, five years after the North Sea Channel opening, the total number of trips rose to 22%, of which 15% was autonomous growth and 7% was induced demand due to the new road facility [16]. It is crucial to have a clear understanding of the behavioural reactions of drivers to new travel conditions. The list of typical decisions made by vehicle users before they start their journey are: whether or not to travel (trip generation); the best destination to fulfil the purpose (trip distribution); the best time to set out on the journey (trip scheduling); the best mode of transport to use (modal choice); the best route to take (traffic assignment); whether to travel alone or with others (vehicle occupancy); and how often to repeat the journey within a given period (trip frequency) [17]. In the short run, the generated traffic mostly consists of trips diverted from other routes, times and modes, called “Triple Convergence” [18,19]. On the other hand, in the long run, an increasing portion of the generated traffic is from induced travel. Apparently, road capacity expansion leverages automobile-dependent land use patterns [20]. For example, a new highway may encourage companies or households to move to suburban and exurban places where per capita vehicle travel is higher, compared to their previous homes in more accessible and multimodal neighbourhoods. Moreover, Figure3 shows that tra ffic congestion tends to maintain an equilibrium state [21]. Traffic volume increases when roads are uncongested; however, later, the traffic volume’s growth rate declines as roads become congested, and reaches an equilibrium point (where the curve becomes horizontal). As the new capacity is added, the traffic volumes start to increase again until this new equilibrium is reached. This additional vehicle travel is known as “generated traffic” when considering a particular link, and “induced travel” when considering the total vehicle travel [13]. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 5 of 26 Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 27

FigureFigure 3. 3. RoadwayRoadway capacity capacity effect eﬀect on on traffic traﬃc volumes. volumes. Source: Source: [21]. [21].

Also,Also, it it can can be be added added that that short-run short-run generated generated traffic traffic is is demonstrated demonstrated by by the the movement movement along along thethe demand demand curve: curve: decreased decreased congestion congestion decreases decreases ve vehiclehicle drivers’ drivers’ travel travel costs; costs; however, however, the the total total vehiclevehicle travel travel demand demand is is the the same. same. Moreover, Moreover, long long-run-run induced induced travel travel effects effects are are demonstrated demonstrated by by thethe outward outward shift shift as as spatial spatial development development and and transp transportationortation patterns patterns become become more more auto-centric, auto-centric, i.e., i.e., extensiveextensive car usageusage is is needed needed to getto accessget access to shops, to workshops, and work other and activities. other Anyactivities. road improvement Any road improvementwith accurately with calculated accurately traffi calculatedc increase valuetraffic still increase will have value “an still additional will have or induced “an additional 10% of base or inducedtraffic in 10% the of short base run” traffic and in 20% the inshort the run” long runand [20%22]. in the long run [22]. NumerousNumerous research research studies studies and and transport transport modelling modelling have have shown shown that that adding adding road road capacity capacity providesprovides only only a a short-term short-term solution toto congestioncongestion andandtra traffic-relatedffic-related environmental environmental problems. problems. It It can can be besaid said that that the the construction construction of newof new ring ring roads roads must must be accompaniedbe accompanied by Pushby Push and and Pull Pull measures measures that thatchange change travel travel demand demand and and decrease decrease car uses.car uses. 3. Methodology 3. Methodology Following a thorough literature review, this study explored several case examples in which various Following a thorough literature review, this study explored several case examples in which approaches had been taken in managing traffic congestion problems. These approaches were then various approaches had been taken in managing traffic congestion problems. These approaches categorized into three major concepts. A comparative analysis was conducted for these case examples were then categorized into three major concepts. A comparative analysis was conducted for these under the umbrella of the three identified concepts. Then, the proposed classification system was case examples under the umbrella of the three identified concepts. Then, the proposed classification investigated for the BAKAD project in Almaty, developing its assessment based on the interview system was investigated for the BAKAD project in Almaty, developing its assessment based on the responses of 60 experts. The details of the interviews are discussed later, in Section6. Subsequently, interview responses of 60 experts. The details of the interviews are discussed later, in Section 6. the necessity of an in-depth analysis of the BAKAD project (the proposed ring road in Almaty), Subsequently, the necessity of an in-depth analysis of the BAKAD project (the proposed ring road in in consideration of both technical solutions and environmentally friendly actions leading to the Almaty), in consideration of both technical solutions and environmentally friendly actions leading to decrease in private vehicle traffic and the dissemination of other modes of transport, is acknowledged. the decrease in private vehicle traffic and the dissemination of other modes of transport, is acknowledged.4. Categorization of Methods into Three Concepts

4. CategorizationSeveral cities of are Methods compared into in Three terms Concepts of traffic congestion decrease, and their traffic congestion reduction methods are categorized into three groups, as shown in Figure4. Specifically, Polegate and 5 Several cities are compared in terms of traffic congestion decrease, and their traffic congestion bypasses across the UK, Hasselt and Malmö, Stockholm and Oslo cities are considered in detail. More reduction methods are categorized into three groups, as shown in Figure 4. Specifically, Polegate case studies for each concept are presented in Section 4.4 in tabular form. All these cities have the same and 5 bypasses across the UK, Hasselt and Malmö, Stockholm and Oslo cities are considered in objectives as Almaty city, such as improvement of the ecological state of urban and peri-urban areas by detail. More case studies for each concept are presented in Section 4.4 in tabular form. All these cities reducing the traffic load on the transport system. The reason for having three concepts is to see the have the same objectives as Almaty city, such as improvement of the ecological state of urban and different ways in which traffic congestion can be reduced: by adding new road capacity (concept 1), peri-urban areas by reducing the traffic load on the transport system. The reason for having three by using transport demand management with Push and Pull measures to reduce car traffic without concepts is to see the different ways in which traffic congestion can be reduced: by adding new road expansion of road capacity (concept 2), and by combining concepts 1 and 2 (concept 3). capacity (concept 1), by using transport demand management with Push and Pull measures to reduce car traffic without expansion of road capacity (concept 2), and by combining concepts 1 and 2 (concept 3). Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 27 Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 6 of 26 Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 27

Figure 4. Classification of concepts for reducing traffic congestion. Figure 4. ClassificationClassification of concepts for reducing tratrafficffic congestion. 4.1. Concept 1: Heavy Engineering Measures 4.1. Concept 1: Heavy Engineering Measures 4.1. ConceptPolegate 1: BypassHeavy Engineering and five other Measures bypasses in the UK were selected based on the availability of officialPolegate pre- and Bypass post-construction and five five other monitoring bypassesbypasses inda theta, UKand wereensuring selected that basedsufficient on thetime availability had passed of sinceoofficialfficial construction pre-pre- andand post-construction post-construction to allow for post-scheme monitoring monitoring land data, da useta, and andchanges ensuring ensuring to that have that su ffioccurred sucientfficient time [23]. time had These passedhad bypasspassed since roadsconstructionsince constructionhad the to same allow to objectives forallow post-scheme for aspost-scheme BAKAD land use does: land changes to use divert changes to have through occurred to have traffic [occurred23 from]. These the [23]. bypass city These and roads reducebypass had congestiontheroads same had objectives thein the same city. as objectives BAKAD does:as BAKAD to divert does: through to divert traffi throughc from thetraffic city from and reducethe city congestion and reduce in thecongestion city. in the city. 4.1.1. Polegate (United Kingdom) 4.1.1. Polegate (United Kingdom) 4.1.1.A27 Polegate Polegate (United Bypass Kingdom) was opened in 2002 and continues as A22 Golden Jubilee Way at its A27 Polegate Bypass was opened in 2002 and continues as A22 Golden Jubilee Way at its eastern easternA27 end Polegate as shown Bypass in Figurewas opened 5. A27 in Polegate 2002 and Bypass continues aimed as toA22 provide Golden relief Jubilee to B2247Way at and its end as shown in Figure5. A27 Polegate Bypass aimed to provide relief to B2247 and congestion in congestioneastern end in as Polegate shown cityin Figurecentre, 5.whereas A27 Polegate A22 Golden Bypass Jubilee aimed Way to aimedprovide to relieverelief to heavy B2247 traffic and Polegate city centre, whereas A22 Golden Jubilee Way aimed to relieve heavy traffic from A2270. fromcongestion A2270. in Polegate city centre, whereas A22 Golden Jubilee Way aimed to relieve heavy traffic from A2270.

Figure 5. Polegate Bypass location. Source: Source: [24]. [24]. Figure 5. Polegate Bypass location. Source: [24]. It is found that after opening the bypass in 2002, 2002, there were signs of induced traffic traffic in 2003, as a 76% overallItoverall is found increaseincrease that after in in tra traffic openingffic occurred occurred the bypass on on the the “old”in 2002,“old” A27 thereA27 and andwere B2247 B2247 signs routes routesof withininduced within one traffic year.one in year. Also, 2003, Also, there as a 76% overall increase in traffic occurred on the “old” A27 and B2247 routes within one year. Also, Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 7 of 26 was a relatively small 9% traffic volume increase on the B2247 (city centre) one year after the bypass opening, implying that it was partially effective in city centre traffic reduction [23]. Then, the traffic volume on the A27 and B2247 rose from 50,600 vehicles per day (before opening) to 66,700 vehicles per day five years after the bypass opening, which amounts to a 32% traffic increase after five years [25]. After five years, traffic volume continued to increase on the B2247 (city centre). Traffic volume on the A22 Golden Jubilee road continued to increase as well; moreover, part of this traffic increase was caused by recent developments at the southern end of the A22 Golden Jubilee road [25]. It can be observed that there is a constant traffic generation and that these values are much higher than the forecasted traffic. For example, one year after the bypass opened, the growth of traffic was 27%, and after five years, it was 32%. City roads in Polegate were partially unloaded; however, in a short time, a car regrowth was observed on the old A27 (now B2247) in the city centre. Moreover, it is to be noted that new developments along the roads contributed to the traffic volume increase. The net effect, in combination with the new road, is a considerable overall increase in traffic. This demonstrates a case of resurgent congestion and it will clearly be a much harder task for the highway authority to reallocate road space [23]. Finally, this case represents Concept 1 and proves the fact that an added road capacity without other travel demand management measures will not be effective in congestion reduction; alternatively, it will encourage induced traffic growth and lead to more congested roads.

4.1.2. Five Bypass Roads (United Kingdom) The POPE reports for five different schemes (bypasses) across the UK were examined to identify induced demand patterns without considering reassigned traffic growth (people changing their route) or background traffic growth (i.e., that which would have happened with or without the scheme) [23]. The five schemes demonstrated a similar pattern, which is attributed to induced traffic. Table1 provides a summary of the evidence of induced traffic for the five schemes.

Table 1. Summary of induced traﬃc for the ﬁve schemes. Source: [23].

Growth in Excess of Average Likelihood of Road/Scheme Name Traﬃc Background Growth Induced Traﬃc A500 Basford, Hough, Shavington bypass +7.7% in 5 years Yes A66 Stainburn & Great Clifton bypass +2.1% or +13.6% in 7 years Yes A1 Willowburn–Denwick Improvement +21.8% in 8 years Yes A1 Bramham–Wetherby +7.4% in 3 years Yes A10 Wadesmill to Colliers End bypass +2.3% or +6.3% in 6 years Yes

4.2. Concept 2: Travel Demand Management with Push and Pull Measures The second type of solution for congestion comprises case studies from Hasselt and Malmö, where without introducing heavy engineering measures such as building new ring roads or road improvement, congestion is eﬀectively regulated by means of transportation demand management through Push and Pull measures, carefully balancing the needs of residents, commuters, businesses, visitors and tourists.

4.2.1. Hasselt (Belgium) The transport strategy in Hasselt included long-term measures such as a Mobility Plan, a Green Boulevard, a public transport policy, spatial planning strategies and separate plans for bicycle use, parking, through traffic, and remodelling of the train station’s forecourt. In addition, the short-term plan included anti-parking bollards, speed-bumps, elevated intersections, and street narrowing. Moreover, there were social campaigns such as car-free days or shopping by bus [26]. One of the strategies was to achieve dense land use around public transport junctions or stations; the other strategy was to decrease Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 8 of 26 the number of empty houses inside the city by introducing high taxes. Furthermore, no development was allowed along the outer ring road to avoid car-oriented land use (sprawl) and, consequently, Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 27 induced traffic. The Green Boulevard used to be an inner ring road that had carried a large amount ofhad tra carriedffic, and a waslarge subsequently amount of tr transformedaffic, and was into subsequently a green pedestrian transformed zone that into keeps a green tra ffipedestrianc outside thezone city that centre. keeps Peopletraffic outside leave their the city cars centre. at parking People zones leave and their use cars free at and parking convenient zones busand servicesuse free toand reach convenient their final bus destinations services to reach inside their Hasselt final city.destinations Moreover, inside car lanesHasselt were city. reduced, Moreover, and car the lanes free spaceswere reduced, were transformed and the free into spaces green were areas transformed or cycling lanes. into Traingreen stations areas or were cycling remodelled lanes. Train into modernstations mobilitywere remodelled hubs which into facilitated modern modal mobility shifts. hubs Such which train stationfacilitated forecourts modal are shifts. now accessibleSuch train for station public transport,forecourts bicyclists,are now accessible wheelchair for users public and transport, pedestrians. bicyclists, To attract wheelchair more people users to workand pedestrians. and live in theTo inner-cityattract more and people to minimize to work personal and live car in use, the mixed inner-city land-use and districtsto minimize around personal railway car stations use, mixed were builtland-use by providing districts betteraround availability railway ofstations daily supplies were built at the by neighbourhood-level providing better availability [27]. Another of spatial daily planningsupplies at strategy the neighbourhood-level of Hasselt included [27]. bringing Another life backspatial to theplanning centre bystrategy decreasing of Hasselt the number included of emptybringing residential life back units to the by centre means by of decreasing negative taxes, the thusnumber preventing of empty urban residential sprawl, units which by encourages means of extensivenegative taxes, car use. thus preventing urban sprawl, which encourages extensive car use. Along with many Push and Pull measures,measures, Hasselt has become popular due to itsits innovativeinnovative public transport policy, whichwhich promoted free-of-chargefree-of-charge bus services from 1997 until 2014. Moreover, Moreover, the qualityquality of the bus stops, with heated, tidy rooms and convenient wash room facilities, was high, and therefore attractive attractive for for bus bus users. users. There There are are many many bicycle bicycle racks racks and andguarded guarded bicycle bicycle sheds sheds with withshowers showers and cloakrooms and cloakrooms across across the city the to city promote to promote cycling. cycling. Shopping Shopping areas areas are car-free are car-free zones, zones, and andnumerous numerous bollards bollards in such in such areas areas make make even even cycl cyclistsists and and bus bus passengers passengers become become pedestrians. The new busbus systemsystem alone alone was was successful successful in in cutting cutting 28,529 28,529 trips trips through through Hasselt’s Hasselt’s city city centre centre per monthper month [26]. Immediately[26]. Immediately after theafter introduction the introduction of the free-of-charge of the free-of-charge bus policy bus in 1997,policy around in 1997, 12,000 around people 12,000 per daypeople started per day to use started buses, to compared use buses, to compared the previous to the value previous of 1000 value bus passengers of 1000 bus [28 passengers]. Accordingly, [28]. asAccordingly, can be seen as in can Figure be 6seen, free-of-charge in Figure 6, buses free-of-charge in Hasselt transportedbuses in Hasselt around transported 4.6 million around travellers 4.6 annuallymillion travellers in 2006 comparedannually in to 2006 1.5 millioncompared bus to users 1.5 million in 1997 bus [29 ];users 16% in of 1997 bus users[29]; 16% were of former bus users car drivers,were former 12% werecar drivers, former 12% cyclists were and former 9% were cyclists former and pedestrians9% were former [26]. pedestrians [26].

Figure 6.6. Number of travellers transported annuallyannually by buses in Hasselt. Source: [[29].29].

Hasselt’s case clearly demonstrates that tratrafffificc congestion can be managed without heavy engineering solutionssolutions such such as buildingas building a bypass, a bypass, ring road ring or otherroad traditional or other transport traditional infrastructure transport facilitiesinfrastructure that generate facilities induced that generate traffic. induced traffic. It shouldshould bebe added added that that Hasselt Hasselt terminated terminated free free of charge of charge public public transport transport in 2014. in 2014. However, However, ticket pricesticket todayprices aretoday cheaper are cheaper than those than before those the before introduction the introduction of ticketless of ticketless public transport. public transport. As described As above,described this above, measure this was measure only one was of only many one in theof many strategic in planthe strategic to reduce plan car trato ffireducec. Hasselt’s car traffic. case clearlyHasselt’s demonstrates case clearly that demonstrates traffic congestion that can traf befic managed congestion without can heavy be managed engineering without solutions heavy such asengineering building a bypass,solutions ring such road as or otherbuilding traditional a bypass, transport ring infrastructure road or other facilities traditional that induce transport traffic. infrastructure facilities that induce traffic.

4.2.2. Malmö (Sweden) In the 1980s, the city of Malmö was a traditional car-centric city; however, it subsequently rejected a large-scale road project and adopted a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP). Since then, Malmö city has become a top bicycle city in Europe, with 30% of its residents using bicycles to reach their workplaces.Sustainability 2019 It, has11, x aFOR 500 PEER km REVIEW cycle path network, and the bike and ride parking facility at Malmö’s9 of 27 central station, in particular, is outstanding [30]. This bike station can be used for free 24/7, and it has theand capacity it has the to accommodatecapacity to accommodate more than 1500 more bikes, than together 1500 bikes, with together bike racks. with Also, bike there racks. are Also, restrooms, there bikeare restrooms, shops, lockers bike and shops, a waiting lockers lounge and witha waiting numerous lounge screens with showing numerous train screens departure showing and arrival train times,departure and airand pumps arrival [30 times,]. This and bike air and pumps ride station[30]. This is locatedbike and right ride under station the is bus located station right and under connects the withbus station the train and platforms connects to with assist the multimodality. train platforms Moreover, to assist 24-h multimodality. safety is guaranteed Moreover, by station 24-h safety guards. is Theguaranteed main idea by is station that one guards. can reach The themain central idea is station that one using can a reach bicycle the and central then leavestation it atusing the bikea bicycle and rideand parkingthen leave station, it at the and bike then and continue ride parking the trip station, either byand bus then or contin by trainue followingthe trip either routes by and bus travel or by timestrain onfollowing the LED routes screens and installed travel insidetimes theon station.the LED The screens other installed important inside element the of station. SUMP The in Malmö other cityimportant is its Bus element Rapid Transitof SUMP (BRT) in Malmö [30]. The city BRT is systemits Bus representsRapid Transit 24-m-long (BRT) hybrid [30]. The (biogas-electric) BRT system bussesrepresents that 24-m-long run on special hybrid bus (biogas-electric) lanes. Major bus busses stops alongthat run the on route special were bus rebuilt, lanes. and Major a tra ffibusc signal stops priorityalong the system route waswere installed. rebuilt, Therefore,and a traffic passenger signal priority capacity system has been was increased; installed. whileTherefore, the travel passenger times andcapacity traffi hasc emissions been increased; have been while decreased the travel [30 ].times and traffic emissions have been decreased [30]. Finally,Finally, itit is is important important to to note note that that Malmö Malmö city’s city’s travel travel demand demand management management with with Push Push and Pulland measuresPull measures was foundwas found to be to very be very effective effective in decreasing in decreasing private private car usage, car usage, despite despite the increasethe increase in the in city’sthe city’s population. population. As can As be can seen be inseen Figure in Figure7, the amount 7, the amount of individual of individual car tra ffi ccar decreased traffic decreased by 6% in the by period6% in the of 2006period to 2011of 2006 against to 2011 a population against a populati increaseon of 9%increase and an of increase9% and ofan workersincrease byof 15%workers [30,31 by]. During15% [30,31]. this timeDuring period, this time a significant period, a shiftsignificant to other shift transport to other modes transport such modes as bicycle, such as bus bicycle, and train bus wasand observed.train was observed.

FigureFigure 7.7. Development ofof tratrafficffic modesmodes andand populationpopulation 2007–20132007–2013 inin Malmö.Malmö. Source:Source: [[30].30]. 4.3. Concept 3: Combined Heavy Engineering Measures and Travel Demand Management with Push and Pull4.3. Concept Measures 3: Combined Heavy Engineering Measures and Travel Demand Management with Push and Pull Measures The third type of solution for dealing with congestion is a combination of heavy engineering and sustainableThe third type complementary of solution for measures. dealing with The congestion example ofis a Stockholm’s combination plan of heavy to reduce engineering traffic congestionand sustainable is considered, complementary where, together measures. with The the Southernexample bypassof Stockholm’s opening, otherplan measuresto reduce such traffic as congestioncongestion chargesis considered, and improvement where, together of public with the transport Southern services, bypass development opening, other of pedestrianmeasures such spaces as andcongestion application charges of compact and improvement spatial planning of public are tran recognizedsport services, as being development effective for of confronting pedestrian spaces traffic congestionand application and environmental of compact spatial pollution. planning are recognized as being effective for confronting traffic congestion and environmental pollution. 4.3.1. Stockholm (Sweden) 4.3.1. Stockholm (Sweden) In Stockholm, together with the Southern bypass opening, other measures, such as congestion chargesIn Stockholm, (toll) and improvement together with of the public Southern transport bypass services, opening, development other measures, of pedestrian such as spacescongestion and applicationcharges (toll) of and compact improvement spatial planning of public are transpor recognizedt services, as eff ectivedevelopment in confronting of pedestrian traffic congestion.spaces and Theapplication Southern of bypass compact was spatial constructed planning to unloadare recogniz innered city as traeffectiveffic. Moreover, in confronting congestion traffic charges congestion. (toll) The Southern bypass was constructed to unload inner city traffic. Moreover, congestion charges (toll) were introduced, along with improvement of public transport capacity to restrain car traffic. In the 1970s, there was rapid traffic growth throughout the inner city until the 1990s; afterwards, and for the next 15 years, the traffic volume unexpectedly remained the same; then, in 2006, a time-differentiated toll around the inner city was introduced [32]. In addition, there was an exemption for alternative-fuel cars (propelled by ethanol, biogas or hybrids) that stimulated the growth of such car ownership (from 3% in 2006 to 15% in 2009) [33]. At the same time, the Essinge Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 10 of 26 were introduced, along with improvement of public transport capacity to restrain car traffic. In the 1970s, there was rapid traffic growth throughout the inner city until the 1990s; afterwards, and for the next 15 years, the traffic volume unexpectedly remained the same; then, in 2006, a time-differentiated toll around the inner city was introduced [32]. In addition, there was an exemption for alternative-fuel Sustainabilitycars (propelled 2019, 11 by, x ethanol, FOR PEER biogas REVIEW or hybrids) that stimulated the growth of such car ownership 10 (from of 27 3% in 2006 to 15% in 2009) [33]. At the same time, the Essinge bypass was opened, which was free of bypasscharge. was Figure opened,8 shows which the was average free dailyof charge. tra ffi Figurec volume 8 shows across the the average inner citydaily (weekdays traffic volume 6:00–19:00) across thesince inner 2000. city (weekdays 6:00–19:00) since 2000.

Figure 8. AverageAverage traffic traﬃc volumes in Stockholm,Stockholm, weekdays 6:00–19:00. Source: [[32].32].

As can be seen, from the 1990s until 2004, tratrafffificc across Stockholm remained constant due to reduced traffic traffic demand (unchanged road capacity). The blue colour indicates that there were no toll charges inin thisthis time time period, period, whereas whereas the the red red colour colo depictsur depicts the tra theffic traffic volume volume when therewhen were there charges. were Therecharges. was There a slight was decrease a slight in decrease traffic congestion in traffic incong 2005estion due in to the2005 opening due to ofthe the opening bypass. of Then, the bypass. in 2006, Then,there wasin 2006, a sharp there decrease was a sharp in tra decreaseffic due in to traffic the combined due to the eff combinedect of the effect bypass of opening,the bypass congestion opening, congestioncharging, and charging, the extension and the of extension public transport of public services. transport In services. late 2006 In to late early 2006 2007, to early the congestion 2007, the congestioncharging was charging removed, was and removed, traffic volumesand traffic started volumes to grow started again. to grow Asa again. result, As starting a result, from starting 2007, fromcongestion 2007, congestion charging was charging imposed was again imposed to avoid again further to avoid traffi furtherc growth. traffic As cangrowth. be seen As fromcan be the seen red frombars, the red traffi bars,c volume the traffic remained volume constant remained until cons 2013.tant Theuntil number 2013. The of vehiclenumberkilometres of vehicle kilometres decreased decreasedby 16% in by the 16% inner in city;the inner the tra city;ffic the volume traffic dropped volume bydropped 5% outside by 5% the outside inner the city, inner on the city, outlying on the outlyingapproach approach roads, and roads, on outlying and on streetsoutlying [32 streets]. Extension [32]. Extension of public transitof public services transit was services also a was part also of the a planpart inof Stockholm.the plan in As Stockholm. a result, the As number a result, of driversthe number switching of drivers to public switching transport to servicespublic increasedtransport servicesby 5% [32 increased]. Hence, by it can5% be[32]. concluded Hence, it that can improved be concluded quality that of improved public transit quality services, of public added transit road services,capacity suchadded as road bypass capacity and congestion such as bypass charging, and togethercongestion with charging, promoting toge thether pedestrian with promoting mode, canthe pedestrianbe effective mode, for reducing can be traeffectiveffic congestion. for reducing traffic congestion.

4.3.2. Oslo Oslo (Norway) (Norway) Oslo city introduced a new urban road tunnel ca calledlled the “Castle tunnel” or or “Festningstunnel” simultaneously with a new toll system that charged drivers enteringentering the citycity centrecentre ofof Oslo.Oslo. This transformed thethe severelyseverely congested congested square square in in front front of of the the City City Hall Hall into into an openan open space space for walkingfor walking and andleisure leisure [34]. [34]. Traffi Trafficc volumes volumes decreased decreased enormously enormously at City at Hall City square Hall square after the after opening the opening of the Castleof the TunnelCastle Tunnel (Festningstunnel) (Festningstunnel) and the and application the application of congestion of congestion charges. charges. The Oslo The toll Oslo ring toll has ring a classic has a classiccordon cordon pricing pricing scheme, scheme, with 19 with toll stations 19 toll stations circling thecircling centre the of centre Oslo [ 34of ].Oslo In the [34]. first In yearthe first of Oslo year toll of Osloring operation,toll ring operation, there was there a 3–5% was tra affi 3–5%c reduction traffic reduction in Oslo [34 in]. Oslo The average[34]. The number average of number car crossings of car crossingsthrough the through Oslo toll the ring Oslo per toll day ring for per the day period for the 1996–2014 period 1996–2014 is shown inis Figureshown9 in. Figure 9. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 11 of 26 Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 27

Figure 9. AverageAverage number number of of car car crossings crossings through through th thee Oslo Oslo toll toll ring ring road road per per day day in in 1996–2014. 1996–2014. Source: [35]. [35].

As cancan bebe seen, seen, after after 2007, 2007, the numberthe number of cars of that cars crossed that crossed the toll barrierthe toll significantly barrier significantly decreased, decreased,despite the despite population the population growth during growth this during time period. this time Part period. of the explanation Part of the forexplanation this could for be this the couldcombined be the eff combinedect of reduced effect faresof reduced for public fares transportfor public andtransport the improved and the improved public transport public transport facilities. facilities.The public The transport public transport share increased share increased from 21% from to 32% 21% between to 32% 2005 between and 2015, 2005 whileand 2015, car ownership while car ownershipdecreased from decreased 45% to from 34% [45%36]. Into addition,34% [36]. starting In addition, from 2017,starting around from 700 2017, parking around spots 700 for parking private spotscars in for the private city centre cars werein the removed city centre to assistwere aremove transitiond to to assist a car-free a transition city of Oslo.to a car-free The “Oslo city Package”of Oslo. Theplan “Oslo is acknowledged Package” plan as having is acknowledged been a successful as having and smartbeen a tool successful for funding and publicsmart tool transport. for funding public transport. 4.4. Effectiveness of the Three Concepts 4.4. EffectivenessTable2 presents of the aThree summary Concepts analysis of the three concepts discussed earlier, along with a few otherTable supporting 2 presents case a studies summary for eachanalys concept.is of the As three can concepts be seen, conceptdiscussed 1 isearlier, not eff ectivealong with in the a longfew otherrun, since supporting a significant case studies increase for in traeachffic concept. volume isAs observed can be seen, in the concept case study. 1 is not Whereas, effective concept in the 2 long and run,3 were since found a significant to be effective increase at reducing in traffic congestion volume is by observed means ofin a the decrease case study. in car Whereas, use and an concept increase 2 andin the 3 usewere of found alternative to be modeseffective of transport.at reducing congestion by means of a decrease in car use and an increase in the use of alternative modes of transport.

Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 12 of 26

Table 2. Results of three concepts and their eﬀectiveness in congestion reduction.

Concept 3: Heavy Engineering + Concept 1: Heavy Engineering Concept 2: Travel Demand Management Travel Demand Management with Measures with Push and Pull Measures Push and Pull Measures Hasselt: after 1 year 16% switched from Stockholm: Essinge bypass + Polegate Bypass: 76% total car to bus, 12% from bicycle to bus, 9% congestion charges (tolls), expanded increase in traffic with 27% former pedestrians to bus; By 2006, bus service decreased the number of induced traffic after one year, and free-of-charge buses in Hasselt vehicle kilometres driven in the inner 32% induced traffic after five transported around 4.6 million travellers city by 16%, vehicle-traffic reduction years. annually versus 1.5 million bus users of 22% over the charge cordon in 1997 A500 Basford, Hough, Shavington bypass: 7.7% increase in 5 years; A66 Stainburn & Great Clifton Malmö: 30% of residents use bicycles to Oslo: Festningstunnel + congestion bypass: 13.6% increase in 7 years; reach workplaces; individual car traffic charges in 2005–2015 the public A1 Willowburn–Denwick decreased by 6% in the period of 2006 to transport share increased from 21% to Improvement: 21.8% increase in 2011 against a population increase of 9% 32%, while car ownership decreased 8 years; and an increase of workers by 15%. from 45% to 34%. A1 Bramham–Wetherby bypass: 7.4% increase in 3 years. Newbury Bypass: FYA: vastly Utrecht: increased bicycle use and car exceeded the HA’s 1995 worst case sharing by almost 50% and reduced Helsinki: ring road + charging estimate that there would be no private car use by 14% [38]. Hague: policies reduced peak-period traffic more than 10% induced traffic. decreased car ownership by 12%, the use congestion by 10–30% on the main Forecasted traffic volume was of public transport grew from 30% to roads in the metropolitan area [40]. exceeded by 46% six years before 65% [39]. the 2010 prediction [37]. Seoul Cheonggyecheon: decommissioning of freeway in the city Milan: underground network centre and “improved bus services, longer Barnstaple Bypass: 20% induced extensions + city centre charge + “new subway operation time, new bus lines traffic in 3 years; M62: 19% bus lanes, high bus frequency, increase circling the CBD area, raised parking induced traffic in 5 years; in parking restriction and fees, rates” removed traffic congestion of Severn Bypass: 44% induced park-and-ride facilities” [45] 168,000 cars per day [42,43]; resulted in a traffic in 1 year [41]. decreased car traffic by 34% in the city 15.1% increase in bus ridership and a 3.3% centre [46]. increase in subway ridership within 2003 and 2008, decreased car use by 45% [44]. North Sea Channel of the Jellicoe Street, Auckland: removal of Gothenburg: Göteborg congestion Amsterdam Ring Road: one year industrial service road, opening tolled cordon + new bus lanes, after opening, 8% traffic increase pedestrian boulevard, car bans area, parking space restrictions in the city occurred, of which 5% was integration of LRT and shared-space centre reduced car traffic across the induced traffic. After five years, approach, controlled parking increased cordon by 12% and by 6% in the city total number of trips rose by 22%, cycling volume by 67%, increased bus use centre [47]. of which 7% was induced traffic. by 57%, decrease in car use by 456% [44]. Paris: Pompidou Expressway closure + A316 (London): 84% induced Jakarta: Outer ring road + congestion “a car free zone along the left bank and a traffic in 8 years; M11 (London): charges + Great Jakarta commuter shared space on the right bank with a 38% induced traffic in 9 years; train extension, mass rapid transit narrower road for cars, and wider routes Leigh Bypass: 20% induced traffic (MRT), LRT, BRT reduce car traffic by for pedestrians and cyclists” decreased in 1 year [41]. 30% in the city centre [49]. private car use by 20% in 5 years [48]. Hammersby Sjostad, Stockholm: 160 ha brownfield redevelopment + Vauban, Freiburg: a car-free, parking free, Tvärbanan tram line extension, 2 new Westway (London): 50% induced mixed-use neighbourhood (district of bus lines, near congestion toll traffic in 10 years; short distance), direct bus-tram boundary, car-sharing, bike-sharing, Manchester Ring: 23% induced interchange, not-for-profit Car-Sharing bicycle parking per building increased traffic in 1 year [41]. service reduced car use by 57%, increased public transport use by 52% and bicycle use by 75% [48]. walking and cycling by 27%, car use is only 21% [48]. Non-effective in long term. Effective Effective Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 13 of 26 Sustainability 2019,, 11,, xx FORFOR PEERPEER REVIEWREVIEW 13 13 of of 27 27 5. Traffic Congestion in Almaty (Kazakhstan) 5. Traffic Congestion in Almaty (Kazakhstan) The total number of inhabitants in Almaty is 1.81 million people. It lies in the northern foothills of The total number of inhabitants in Almaty is 1.81 million people. It lies in the northern foothills the Trans-Ili Alatau at an elevation of 700–900 m. The city is located in a piedmont basin, where fogs of the Trans-Ili Alatau at an elevation of 700–900 m. TheThe citycity isis locatedlocated inin aa piedmontpiedmont basin,basin, wherewhere and surface inversions are often observed, which makes it difficult to disperse impurities in air. This fogs and surface inversions are often observed, which makes it difficult to disperse impurities in air. leads to the accumulation of air pollutants such as exhaust gases from automotive vehicles, emissions This leads to the accumulation of air pollutants such as exhaust gases from automotive vehicles, from heat stations, co-generation plants, and industrial activities. According to the Centre of Hydro emissions from heat stations, co-generation plants, and industrial activities. According to the Centre Meteorological Monitoring of Almaty, the index of atmospheric air pollution in the city was 9.2 in of Hydro Meteorological Monitoring of Almaty, the index of atmospheric air pollution in the city 2011—one of the highest in the country [50]. Almaty city and Almaty rural region have the highest was 9.2 in 2011—one of the highest in the country [50]. Almaty city and Almaty rural region have the number of cars, accounting for 930,761 vehicles [51]. Below, in Figure 10, private car ownership for highest number of cars, accounting for 930,761 vehicles [51]. Below, in Figure 10, private car Almaty city for 2018 is given. ownership for Almaty city forfor 20182018 isis given.given.

Figure 10.10. Number of registered private cars in Alma Almatytyty citycity fromfrom January January 20182018 untiluntil JanuaryJanuary 2019.2019. Source: [[51].51].

InIn general,general, more thanthan 700 thousandthousand units of vehi vehiclescles are in operation in the city, ofof whichwhich twotwo thirdsthirds (250(250 thousand)thousand) areare non-residentnon-resident andand transittransit vehiclesvehicles [[52].52]. The most preferred transport for moving around the city is aa privateprivate carcar (38%(38% ofof AlmatyAlmaty populationpopulation are car users), 36% of Almaty residentsresidents use busbus andand trolleybus,trolleybus, 12% use taxi servicesservicesices and and 7% 7% use the metro;metro; only 3% ofof AlmatyAlmaty residentsresidents useuse bicycle,bicycle, andand anotheranother 4%4% dodo notnot useuse anyany typetype ofof transport,transport, asas shownshown inin FigureFigure 1111[ 53[53].].

Transport mode preferences in Almaty Bicycle Underground Bicycle Underground 3% Pedestrian metro 3% metro 4% 7% Taxi service 7% Taxi service private car 12% 12% 38%

bus and trolleybustrolleybus 36%

Figure 11. Transport mode choice in Almaty. Source:Source: [[53].53].

The route of the ﬁrstfirst BRTBRT lineline withwith aa lengthlength ofof 8.78.7 kmkm waswas introducedintroduced throughthrough the streets of Mustaﬁn-Suleimenov-Zhandosov-TimiryazevMustafin-Suleimenov-Zhandosov-Timiryazev to to Zheltoksan Zheltoksan Street Street in in Almaty Almaty in 2018.in 2018. Below, Below, theBRT the lineBRT online Timiryazev on Timiryazev Street Street is shown is shown in Figure in Figure 12. 12. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973x FOR PEER REVIEW 1414 of of 2726 Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 27

Figure 12. BRT line in Almaty in 2018. Figure 12. BRT line in Almaty in 2018. Due to the overloaded transport system in Almaty, the average driving speed in the city was measuredDue toat the19 overloadedkm/h [54]. The transport ecological system situation in Almaty, is aggravated the average by the driving technical speed condition in the city of wasthe existingmeasured fleet at of 19 old kmkm/h /passengerh [[54].54]. The cars ecological (manufacturing situation year is aggravated more than 10by years the technical ago), which condition accounts of thefor 80.8%existing of fleetfleetregistered of old passenger cars. cars (manufacturingCurrently, more year than more 115 thousand than 10 years techni ago),cally which outdated accounts cars are for in80.8% operation, ofof registeredregistered providing passengerpassenger up to cars. 70%cars. of Currently,Currently, the gross more morevolu thanme than of 115 115emissions thousand thousand from technically techni motocallyr vehicles outdated outdated [50]. cars cars At are theare in sameoperation,in operation, time, providing 99% providing of all up registered toup 70% to 70% of passenger the of grossthe gross volumecars volu use of megasoline emissions of emissions as fromfuel. fromThe motor use moto vehicles of rlow-quality vehicles [50]. At[50]. thefuel At same and the lubricantstime,same 99%time, ofcontributes 99% all registered of all registeredto passengeran increase passenger cars in useemissions cars gasoline use of gasoline as harmful fuel. The as substances fuel. use of The low-quality use into of the low-quality fuelatmosphere and lubricants fuel from and motorizedcontributeslubricants contributestransport to an increase in toAlmaty. an in increase emissions An immediate in ofemissions harmful transiti of substances harmfulon to higher substances into standards the atmosphere into of the gasoline atmosphere from quality motorized from will decreasetransportmotorized exhaust in transport Almaty. emissions in An Almaty. immediate produced An immediate transition by cars by transiti to 25% higher onin Almaty standardsto higher city standards of [55]. gasoline Due of qualitytogasoline the increase will quality decrease in willthe standardexhaustdecrease emissions exhaustof living emissions producedand income produced by growth cars by byof 25% Almaty’scars in Almatyby 25% population, cityin Almaty [55]. Duethe city mobility to [55]. the increaseDue of theto the inresidents theincrease standard and in the of levellivingstandard of and car of income livingownership and growth income will of Almaty’sincrease, growth of population,which Almaty’s will population, theput mobilitytremendous the of themobility strain residents onof thethe and residents city’s the level transport and of carthe infrastructure.ownershiplevel of car will ownership increase, whichwill increase, will put which tremendous will put strain tremendous on the city’s strain transport on the infrastructure. city’s transport infrastructure. The Big Almaty Ring Road (Kazakhstan) The Big Almaty Ring Road (Kazakhstan) Considering the huge amount of traffic traffic in AlmatyAlmaty city and the negativenegative environmental impact that it Considering causes, the the Big huge Almaty amount Ring of Road traffic (BAKAD) in Almaty has city been and initiated the negative to relieve environmental the urban impact road networkthat it causes, by by diverting diverting the Big transit Almaty transit traffic traRingffi fromc Road from the (BAKAD) the city. city. Transit has Transit vehiclesbeen vehicles initiated pass through pass to relieve through Almaty the Almaty urbanand follow road and internationalfollownetwork international by diverting corridors corridors transit such suchtrafficas Tashkent–Shymk as from Tashkent–Shymkent–Taraz–Bishkek–Almaty-Khorgos the city. Transitent–Taraz–Bishkek–Almaty-Khorgos vehicles pass through Almaty and(New (New follow Silk Road),international andand Almaty–Karaganda–Nur-Sultan Almaty–Karaganda–Nur-Sultancorridors such as Tashkent–Shymk (Astana)–Petropavlovsk, (Astana)–Petropavlovsk,ent–Taraz–Bishkek–Almaty-Khorgos Western Western Europe–Western Europe–Western (New China, Silk China,asRoad), shown asand shown in FigureAlmaty–Karaganda–Nur-Sultan in 13Figure. 13. (Astana)–Petropavlovsk, Western Europe–Western China, as shown in Figure 13.

Figure 13. Big Almaty Ring Road (BAKAD) map. Source: [56]. [56]. Figure 13. Big Almaty Ring Road (BAKAD) map. Source: [56]. It is planned to build 8 junctions and 39 overpasses along the BAKAD, which would be a 4- to 6-laneIt autobahnis planned with to build a permitted 8 junctions speed and of 39 120–150 overpa kmsses/h. along The ringthe BAKAD, road will which be 66 wouldkm long, be aand 4- tois 6-lane autobahn with a permitted speed of 120–150 km/h. The ring road will be 66 km long, and is Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 15 of 26

It is planned to build 8 junctions and 39 overpasses along the BAKAD, which would be a 4- to Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 27 6-lane autobahn with a permitted speed of 120–150 km/h. The ring road will be 66 km long, and is planned to be located at a distance of 20–25 km from the centre of Almaty, alongalong itsits suburbansuburban zone through the territory of the Karasai (27.5 km long), Ili (19.26 km long) and Talgar (19.24 km long) districts of the AlmatyAlmaty regionregion [[56].56]. It is expectedexpected that BAKAD will ensure improvementimprovement of transittransit capacity and competitiveness ofof trans-Kazakhstantrans-Kazakhstan transittransit routes.routes. The annual increase in the intensity of traffic traffic on external roads in the suburban area area of of Almaty, Almaty, depending on the the direction direction of of the the road, road, is is3% 3% to to8.5% 8.5% [56]. [56 The]. The transport transport model model of Almaty of Almaty city was city wasdeveloped developed by means by means of PTV of Vision PTV Vision VISUM, VISUM, and the and forecasted the forecasted results of results increasing of increasing annual average annual averagedaily traffic daily intensity traffic intensity along BAKAD along BAKAD(v/day) are (v/day) shown are in shown Figure in 14. Figure It can 14 be. It seen can bethat seen the thathighest the highesttraffic volume traffic volume will occur will occurin 2033 in 2033and and2038 2038 on onNorthern Northern semi-ring–Zhansugurov semi-ring–Zhansugurov streets streets and and on Zhansugurov–Lavreneva streets as they are leadingleading to the “Western Europe–Western China”China” trade corridor and the International CentreCentre forfor Cross-BorderCross-Border CooperationCooperation “Khorgos”.“Khorgos”.

Figure 14. Forecasted results of annual average daily tratrafficﬃc intensity along BAKAD in 2033 (v(v/day)./day).

It isis claimedclaimed that “the BAKAD operation will lead to a decrease in tratrafficffic jams to the Almaty centre and an increasing in the average speed of motormotor transport in the city; as a result, there will be a decrease in averageaverage fuelfuel consumption,consumption, which will lead to a generalgeneral reductionreduction in greenhousegreenhouse gas emissions” [[57].57]. Apparently, it seemsseems that the phenomenonphenomenon of induced demand is neglected in this statement. It is a known fact that new roads generate extra tratrafficffic (the figurefigure aboveabove demonstratesdemonstrates a vehicle growth on BAKAD). Moreover, ruralrural car-basedcar-based developmentdevelopment mightmight bebe stimulated.stimulated. Figure 15 depicts thatthat BAKAD BAKAD will will pass pass through through farmlands farmlands (represented (represented by pink by colour)pink colour) and settlements and settlements around itaround (represented it (represented by green colour). by green In addition, colour). Table In 3addition, describes Table the list 3 of describes housing developments the list of housing located alongdevelopments the proposed located BAKAD along bypassthe proposed road. BAKAD bypass road. Therefore, the new capacity will encourage extra trips which would not otherwise be made. Also, the car number growth will lead to congestion increase, which will cause an increase in the amount of vehicle emissions. Thus, environmental state might not be improved in the long run. Moreover, GEF/UNDP claimed that “if Almaty follows existing transportation policies when most of the investments are made towards the development of new road networks and personal car use stimulation, by 2023, carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector in Almaty are expected to grow by 75%” [58]. The actual benefits, as well as the adverse effect of induced traffic can be assessed now for the BAKAD as the project is still under construction. Thus, in order to anticipate whether BAKAD will Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 27 mitigate traffic congestion in Almaty and improve its current ecological situation in the long run, expertSustainability interviews2019, 11, 4973were conducted and matched with the classified concepts (discussed earlier)16 offor 26 the BAKAD.

FigureFigure 15. 15. BigBig Almaty Almaty Ring Ring Road Road (BAKAD) (BAKAD) scheme. scheme.

Table 3. Table 3. ListList of of existing existing settlements settlements along along the the BAKAD BAKAD route. route.

VillageVillage Name Station Station Point Point Distance Distance from from the the Route, Route, m m AsselAssel village SP SP 0 + 0 +00–SP00–SP 1 1++ 5050 20 20m mon on the the left left HousingHousing area SP SP 13 13 + +00–SP00–SP 20 20 From From both both sides sides Raimbek village SP 19 + 00–SP 33 + 00 Right 400 m Raimbek village SP 19 + 00–SP 33 + 00 Right 400 m Raimbek-2 village ΠK 52 + 00–SP 55+00 Right 280 m Raimbek-2Lastochka villagevillage ПК SP 52 75 + 00–SP 11755+00+ 00 On Right the left 280 550–690 m m LastochkaAksengir villagevillage SP SP 75 209 + 00–SP+ 00–SP 117 210 + +0000 On the left Left 550–690 20 m m AksengirAksengir village SP 209 SP 213 + 00–SP+ –SP 210 215 ++ 00 On the Left axis 20 ofm the road AksengirIssaevo villagevillage SP SP 213 225 ++ –SP00–SP 215 227 + 00+ 00 On the axis Left of 50 the m road Tuimebayev village SP 374 + 00–SP 379 + 00 On the axis of the road Issaevo village SP 225 + 00–SP 227 + 00 Left 50 m Yntymak village SP 420 + 00–SP 426 + 00 Right 600 m TuimebayevPokrovka village village SP SP 374 454 + +00–SP00–SP 379 468 ++ 0000 On the Through axis of settlement the road YntymakKyzyltu villagevillage SP SP 420 528 + +00–SP00–SP 426 530 ++ 0000 OnRight the 600 right m 20 m PokrovkaTaldybulak village village SP SP 454 649 + +00–SP00–SP 468 653 ++ 0000 Through Right settlement 140 m KyzylkairatKyzyltu village village SP SP 528 653 + +00–SP00–SP 530 658 ++ 0000 On Tothe the right left 20020 m m Taldybulak village SP 649 + 00–SP 653 + 00 Right 140 m Therefore,Kyzylkairat the new village capacity SP will 653 encourage + 00–SP 658 extra + 00 trips which To the would left 200 not m otherwise be made. Also, the car number growth will lead to congestion increase, which will cause an increase in the 6.amount Big Almaty of vehicle Ring emissions.Road (BAKAD) Thus, analysis environmental state might not be improved in the long run. Moreover, GEF/UNDP claimed that “if Almaty follows existing transportation policies when most 6.1.of the Expert investments Opinion on are BAKAD made towards the development of new road networks and personal car use stimulation,To gather by expert 2023, carbonopinion dioxide on BAKAD emissions and from over theall transportcongestion sector management in Almaty in are Almaty expected city, to interviewsgrow by 75%” were [58 conducted]. face-to-face and over the phone with 60 respondents. Among the respondents,The actual two benefits, persons as were well involved as the adverse in BAKAD effect project, of induced and tratheffi restc can had be expertise assessed in now highway for the andBAKAD traffic as theengineering, project is stillbusine underss and construction. finance, and Thus, members in order toof anticipatethe environmental whether BAKAD protection will community.mitigate tra ffiFurthermore,c congestion the in majority Almaty andof respondent improve itss were current residents ecological of Almaty situation who in were the long familiar run, withexpert the interviews Almaty transport were conducted system and matchedthe local withenvironment. the classified The conceptsinterview (discussed was conducted earlier) in for a structuredthe BAKAD. format with a fixed number of pre-set questions so that comprehensive opinion could be gathered for each factor. The responses are summarized as follows. 6. Big Almaty Ring Road (BAKAD) analysis Q1: What will be the results of the BAKAD project in terms of congestion, environmental impact6.1. Expert (air Opinionquality), on and BAKAD new developments along the BAKAD? Will it solve congestion in the long run inTo Almaty? gather expert opinion on BAKAD and overall congestion management in Almaty city, interviews wereThe conducted majority face-to-face of respondents and overassumed the phonethat an with initial 60 relief respondents. in traffic Amongcongestion the respondents,would occur due two topersons the operation were involved of BAKAD; in BAKAD however, project, it would and the ha restve hada temporary expertise ineffect highway only. andAdditional traffic engineering, measures suchbusiness as further and finance, construction and members of metro of the lines, environmental implying an protection annual community.construction Furthermore,of 2–3 stations, the commissioningmajority of respondents of monorail were lines, residents and an of increase Almaty whoin trolleybus were familiar lines withmight the solve Almaty traffic transport congestion system in and the local environment. The interview was conducted in a structured format with a fixed number Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 17 of 26 of pre-set questions so that comprehensive opinion could be gathered for each factor. The responses are summarized as follows.

Q1: What will be the results of the BAKAD project in terms of congestion, environmental impact (air quality), and new developments along the BAKAD? Will it solve congestion in the long run in Almaty?

The majority of respondents assumed that an initial relief in traffic congestion would occur due to Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 27 the operation of BAKAD; however, it would have a temporary effect only. Additional measures such asthe further long run. construction In addition, of metrothe switching lines, implying of all public an annual transport construction of Almaty of to 2–3 gas, stations, and an commissioning upgrade of all of monorailthe HPPs lines, in the and city an by increase switching in trolleybus them to linesgas mightwould solveminimize traffi cthe congestion harmful inimpact the long on run.the Inenvironment. addition, the switching of all public transport of Almaty to gas, and an upgrade of all of the HPPs in the cityCurrently by switching a large them number to gas of would drivers minimize from the the periphery harmful impact(exurban on areas the environment. outside Almaty), for exampleCurrently from aKamenka, large number Akzhar, of drivers Kaskelen, from the Talgar periphery and (exurbanother villages areas outside in Almaty Almaty), regional for example areas, fromconverge Kamenka, on the Akzhar, Almaty Kaskelen, city centre Talgar every and morning other villages and evening, in Almaty thus regional creating areas, traffic converge jams on the Almatyroad. Almost city centre 200,000 every people morning come and to evening,Almaty thuscity daily creating from tra ffinearbyc jams exurban on the road. regions, Almost and200,000 only a peoplenegligible come number to Almaty use citypublic daily transport. from nearby Urban exurban sprawl regions, is also andinduced only by a negligible the 50% discounts number use on public taxes transport.and insurance Urban for sprawlresidents is alsofrom induced nearby byexurban the 50% areas discounts of Almaty, on taxes which and motivates insurance people for residents to live fromoutside nearby the city exurban boundaries, areas of where Almaty, private which cars motivates are the peopleonly mode to live of outsidetransport the to city the boundaries,city centre. whereTherefore, private BAKAD cars are will the designate only mode new of transportborders for to thethe citycity centre. of Almaty, Therefore, meaning BAKAD that willthe designateterritorial newborders borders of the for agglomeration the city of Almaty, core meaning will be thatin ac thetive territorial growth. bordersTherefore, of the the agglomeration previously organized core will begreen in active belts (green growth. lands) Therefore, around the the previously city will gradually organized be green destroyed belts (green in favour lands) of aroundlow-rise the buildings, city will graduallyas shown in be Figure destroyed 16, and in favour the dependence of low-rise on buildings, personal as transport shown in will Figure also 16 grow., and theThe dependenceother problem on personalis that new transport housing will developments, also grow. The which other problemwould mostly is that newbe private housing houses, developments, use coal which for heating would mostlypurposes. be privateFurthermore, houses, new use coalbusiness for heating and indust purposes.rial developments Furthermore, are new expected business along andindustrial BAKAD, developmentswhich will also are stimulate expected private along BAKAD,car ownership. which willAll alsothese stimulate facts will private influence car ownership.the development All these of factsinduced will traffic influence on BAKAD the development and in Almaty of induced city in tra thffie clong on BAKADrun and andwill incause Almaty irreparable city in theharm long to runthe andenvironment, will cause imposing irreparable damage harm toto thethe environment,air quality of Almaty. imposing damage to the air quality of Almaty.

Figure 16. Green lands around Almaty in 2019.

Q2: Do youyou knowknow if if any any developments developments (housing, (housing, business business and and other) other) are are planned planned in the in the BAKADBAKAD Project? Project? Will Willthese these developments developments around around the the BAKAD BAKAD project project stimulate stimulate employment? employment?

A majoritymajority ofof respondents respondents claimed claimed that that it was it was planned planned to locate to locate bus stations, bus stations, recreational recreational centres, residentialcentres, residential and industrial and industrial zones, and zones, petrol and stations petrol fromstations private from owners private in owners the area in of the the area transport of the interchangestransport interchanges at the entrances at the toentran BAKAD.ces to Also, BAKAD. to ensure Also, the to operation ensure th ofe operation the toll highway, of the toll a DEU highway, (road maintenancea DEU (road facility)maintenance complex facility) with an complex IPTS (Intelligent with an IPTS Transport (Intelligent Payment Transport System) controlPayment centre System) will control centre will be constructed. At radial exits (Almaty-Bishkek, Almaty-Shamalgan, Almaty-Talgar and three other highways), as in Figure 13, construction of large shopping centres (hypermarkets), logistics terminals, industrial zones (factories), and production and distribution centres may be initiated. Also, at a short distance from the BAKAD Ring Road, new residential areas, social and business infrastructure (as residential complexes, business centres, business parks) will be located. Some companies will move their branches from the city centre to the ring road area due to convenient parking and better transport accessibility. Moreover, hotels, gas stations, vehicle repair and maintenance services for transit vehicles on international corridor (Almaty-Ust-Kamenogorsk) and the transcontinental corridor (Western Europe–Western China) will be developed. The respondents agreed that new job opportunities would be created due to BAKAD development. However, if industrial and business sites were to be more concentrated inside the Almaty city, then Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 18 of 26 be constructed. At radial exits (Almaty-Bishkek, Almaty-Shamalgan, Almaty-Talgar and three other highways), as in Figure 13, construction of large shopping centres (hypermarkets), logistics terminals, industrial zones (factories), and production and distribution centres may be initiated. Also, at a short distance from the BAKAD Ring Road, new residential areas, social and business infrastructure (as residential complexes, business centres, business parks) will be located. Some companies will move their branches from the city centre to the ring road area due to convenient parking and better transport accessibility. Moreover, hotels, gas stations, vehicle repair and maintenance services for transit vehicles on international corridor (Almaty-Ust-Kamenogorsk) and the transcontinental corridor (Western Europe–Western China) will be developed. The respondents agreed that new job opportunities would be created due to BAKAD development. However, if industrial and business sites were to be more concentrated inside the Almaty city, then there would be a risk that these HGVs would enter the city to access industrial and business sites such as warehouses, etc., as happened, for example, in the case of the Newbury bypass, where the old road still experienced high levels of HGVs because of new industrial and business sites accessed via the old road (through the city centre). The other risk is that some drivers might want to skip paying fees for BAKAD and again use the old roads through the city centre, thus resulting in there being no decrease in traﬃc volume inside the city.

Q3: In your opinion, will the BAKAD ring road cause changes in the behaviour patterns of Almaty inhabitants in the long run? Will there be a new growth of car owners?

All respondents talked about induced traffic demand and believed that there would be recurring traffic congestion on BAKAD and in the city centre. In the short run, this will consist of generated traffic: drivers divert their trips from other routes, times, and destinations. In the long term, the growing number of vehicles will be a result of induced traffic. For example, the post-opening project evaluation of Polegate in the United Kingdom proves the existence of induced traffic growth as described in the section on concept 1. Therefore, considering BAKAD in the framework of the 1st concept findings, it can be assumed that induced traffic will occur after the opening of the BAKAD road.. The parallel routes M36, P19 and outbound roads such as Talgar, Kuljinsky, Iliysky, Almaty–Bishkek might have lower traffic volumes immediately after opening the BAKAD bypass. According to the responses, BAKAD will make remote areas of Almaty attractive for drivers, and thus they will switch from other alternate routes, times and modes due to the high speed that is possible on it. Moreover, BAKAD will stretch the city and increase its car dependency by expanding residential areas significantly, as mentioned earlier in response of the first question. In connection with the de-urbanization of the city, there will be many new places that can only be reached by private cars.

Q4: Please provide a few methods to destimulate car ownership in Almaty

According to the responses, it is possible to destimulate car use by: building park-and-ride areas (P + R) at the entrances to the city and at metro; • increasing the number of suburban bus routes to Kaskelen, Uzyn Agash, Talgar, Esik, Kapshagai • from Almaty city and settlements adjacent to the city; launching commuter trains to Uzyn Agash, Kapshagay, Talgar; • increasing the cost of parking in the city centre and making the city centre a paid area; • organising transport services for students and staﬀ at educational institutions; • introducing ﬁnes for cars that do not meet Euro 5 fuel standards; • developing a convenient bicycle infrastructure in Almaty; • providing excellent, low-cost and frequent public transport inside the city and on the outskirts; • ensuring a safe licensed taxi service and providing safety in general in the city. • Despite such responses related to building P + R areas, it must be taken into account that such areas, after long-term analyses do not actually decrease car ownership, as a car is still needed to reach the P + R station [59]. Thus, a positive impact of P + R areas is questionable. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 19 of 26

All these methods are similar approaches, successfully applied in different cities such as Hasselt and Stockholm, as described earlier. However, further detailed study is necessary to examine the suitability of each method for Almaty city, taking into consideration its current transportation system, socio-economic cultures, land use pattern, people’s behaviour, etc. Furthermore, one respondent suggested following the example of Jakarta’s traffic regulation in Almaty, since the city is heavily car dependent. According to the regulation, each car must have three or more passengers in the central business district of the city during peak hours, otherwise drivers are fined. The respondent claimed that traffic jam in Jakarta increased significantly after the cancellation of this policy in 2016, and average speeds dropped from 28 km/hr to 19 km/hr and from 21 km/hr to 11 km/hr during the morning and evening peak periods, respectively.

Q5: Do you think that the charging system on BAKAD bypass will attract drivers to use it?

According to the responses, it is expected that the cost of travel of 1 km might be equal to 1 KZT for private cars, 5 to 15 KZT for buses depending on passenger capacity, and 5 to 20 KZT for trucks depending on their carrying capacity. Thus, charges on BAKAD ring road will be affordable for potential drivers. However, when considering Oslo city’s mobility plan, with its high tariffs on the Oslo toll ring, it was found that traffic congestion inside the city and personal car ownership on the local roads were effectively decreased, whereas the share of public transport increased (drivers wanted to save money). This means that if the BAKAD tolling system has low tariffs, then this measure will not be effective in achieving the expected results. However, if toll tariffs become unaffordable for drivers, then there is a risk that they may not use the tolled BAKAD road and continue to use old routes, and keep entering the city. The next solution to that might be the inclusion of another toll charge on entry into the city centre. This would encourage drivers (not transit vehicle drivers) to switch to public transport, provided that public transport conditions are improved with competitive fares. For example, in Stockholm, as a result of the tolled cordon around its city centre, the number of drivers switching to public transport services increased by 5%, causing a vehicle traffic reduction of 22% in the inner city. One respondent added that due to the active transit flow from and to China, the BAKAD project will bring huge profits to the Kazakhstani state budget in the future, as soon as the repayment period for the Concessionaires ends.

Q6: Do you think that the BAKAD project must be a part of an integrated plan to solve congestion problems in Almaty (with other intercity measures such as improvement of public transport, cycling conditions, decreasing car use, road pricing)?

All respondents agreed that BAKAD must be a part of a combined plan with other intercity measures. The city’s urban structure must minimize the need for people to move over long distances, and thus to use private cars. It is necessary to increase the density of the city and to avoid an urban sprawl. One of the respondents provided a detailed plan: 1. Control taxis with proper taxi licenses and designated taxi points. Currently, there are huge numbers of gypsy taxis who stop here and there for passengers and occupy the external lanes, leading to ineffective use of road capacity. 2. Develop a proper transport facility for school-going students. Everyone knows how the traffic flow slows down from 1 September, when classes start for schools. Following the example of the USA, where a couple of buses collect children at special areas at certain time periods, instead of 30 private cars with parents and students occupying the road space and creating traffic congestion, there will be 1 bus on the road. 3. Improve the public transport facilities, develop an underground metro in the city centre, since there is not enough open space. 4. Develop trains from the suburbs (Talgar, Kapchagay, Kaskelen). Although this is expensive, it would effectively replace the huge traffic flow coming from the suburbs to the city centre. A taxi driver can make 2–3 trips every day in the morning from Talgar to Almaty. One train would replace no less than 100 cars. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 20 of 26

However, further detailed study is necessary before implementing the aforementioned plans, as mentioned earlier. Many respondents placed an emphasis on improved and friendlier public transport, especially bus services with polite crew (drivers and conductors) so that more passengers are attracted to using public transport, special priority places for pregnant women and older people inside the bus, the need for buses to be convenient for users with disabilities, and a culture of organised boarding of buses must be developed (like in many developed countries, where those who come to the Sustainabilitybus station 2019 ﬁrst, 11 enter, x FOR the PEER bus REVIEW ﬁrst). 20 of 27

Q7: What What would would personally personally motivate you to ride a bike to work?

A majority of respondents stated that the main obstacles to riding a bike to work were: harsh climate conditionsconditions in in winter, winter, that that the citythe wascity built was on built a slope, on thea slope, illogical the and illogical fragmented and (incomplete)fragmented (incomplete)cycling infrastructure, cycling infrastructure, the lack of safety the on lack roads of forsafety cyclists, on roads and therefor cyclists, being no and priority there for being cyclists, no priorityno barriers for cyclists, for the cyclingno barriers paths for on the the cycling road space,paths on no the parking road space, facilities no forparking bikes facilities near commercial for bikes nearcentres, commercial no shower centres, cabins onoffered shower by employers cabins offer aftered by driving employers a bike, after and nodriving bike promotiona bike, and programs no bike promotion(e.g., subsidies programs for purchasing (e.g., subsidies a bicycle, for purchasing or a rewards a bicycle, per kilometre or a rewards with aper GPS kilometre sensor installedwith a GPS in sensorbicycles). installed Therefore, in bikesbicycles). might Therefore, not be an ebikeffectives might measure not tobe manage an effective congestion measure in Almaty. to manage congestion in Almaty. Q8: What dodo youyou thinkthink of of the the second second BRT BRT corridor corridor that that will will pass pass along along densely densely populated populated streetsstreets such such as Zheltoksan, as Zheltoksan, Tole Tole bi biand and the the Ea Easternstern bypassbypass roadroad to to the the new new bus bus station station on theon the KuldzhinskyKuldzhinsky highway highway in 2021? in 2021? A majoritymajority ofof respondents respondents (51%) (51%) from from Figure Figure 17 criticized 17 criticized the construction the construction of the 2ndof the BRT 2nd corridor BRT corridorby describing by describing their negative their experience negative experience of the 1st BRT of the line 1st on TimiryazevBRT line on Street, Timiryazev which isStreet, still congested. which is stillSome congested. of the respondents Some of the asked respondents to stop concentrating asked to stop on concentrating the city centre on only,the city and centre to think only, of and public to thinktransport of public options transport in the outskirts options of Almatyin the outski and ruralrts areasof Almaty around and Almaty; rural furthermore,areas around they Almaty; stated “whyfurthermore, not increase they stated the number “why ofnot new increase routes the of numb the undergrounder of new routes metro? of the Its underground capacity is greater metro? than Its capacitythat of the is buses”.greater Onlythan 20%that supportedof the buses”. construction Only 20% of supported the new BRT construction line, saying of thatthe “Almatynew BRT is line, not sayingfor cars, that it is “Almaty for people, is not our for children cars, it mustis for growpeople, in aour safe children city with must no grow car accidents, in a safe andcity thus,with publicno car accidents,transport (LRT,and thus, BRT) ispublic a good transport solution”. (LRT, Obviously, BRT) is due a good to poor solution”. experiences Obviously, of the 1st due BRT to line poor on experiencesTimiryazev Street,of the Almaty1st BRT citizens line on are Timiryazev sceptical about Street, reducing Almaty tra citizensffic congestion are sceptical by launching about reducing the new trafficBRT line. congestion by launching the new BRT line.

FigureFigure 17. 17. PercentagePercentage of of public public attitude attitude towards towards the the construction construction of of the the 2nd BRT line in Almaty.

Q9: From the beginning ofof AprilApril 2019,2019, reconstructionreconstruction workworkwith with a a priority priority for for pedestrians pedestrians on the sectionson thesections of Baiseitova of Baiseitova Street, Street,Zhibek Zhibek Zholy Zholyand Dostyk and Dostyk Avenue Avenue will start will start(Figure (Figure 18). What18). is your Whatopinion? is your opinion?

A majority of respondents (63%) as shown in Figure 19 were positive towards turning three city centre streets into pedestrian priority streets. However, some respondents wished to stop doing reconstruction work only in the city centre area, as some districts in the outskirts of Almaty do not have proper roads and roadway lighting.

Figure 18. Zhibek Zholy Street’s visualization model. Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 20 of 27

Q7: What would personally motivate you to ride a bike to work? A majority of respondents stated that the main obstacles to riding a bike to work were: harsh climate conditions in winter, that the city was built on a slope, the illogical and fragmented (incomplete) cycling infrastructure, the lack of safety on roads for cyclists, and there being no priority for cyclists, no barriers for the cycling paths on the road space, no parking facilities for bikes near commercial centres, no shower cabins offered by employers after driving a bike, and no bike promotion programs (e.g., subsidies for purchasing a bicycle, or a rewards per kilometre with a GPS sensor installed in bicycles). Therefore, bikes might not be an effective measure to manage congestion in Almaty. Q8: What do you think of the second BRT corridor that will pass along densely populated streets such as Zheltoksan, Tole bi and the Eastern bypass road to the new bus station on the Kuldzhinsky highway in 2021? A majority of respondents (51%) from Figure 17 criticized the construction of the 2nd BRT corridor by describing their negative experience of the 1st BRT line on Timiryazev Street, which is still congested. Some of the respondents asked to stop concentrating on the city centre only, and to think of public transport options in the outskirts of Almaty and rural areas around Almaty; furthermore, they stated “why not increase the number of new routes of the underground metro? Its capacity is greater than that of the buses”. Only 20% supported construction of the new BRT line, saying that “Almaty is not for cars, it is for people, our children must grow in a safe city with no car accidents, and thus, public transport (LRT, BRT) is a good solution”. Obviously, due to poor experiences of the 1st BRT line on Timiryazev Street, Almaty citizens are sceptical about reducing traffic congestion by launching the new BRT line.

Figure 17. Percentage of public attitude towards the construction of the 2nd BRT line in Almaty.

Q9: From the beginning of April 2019, reconstruction work with a priority for pedestrians on Sustainabilitythe sections2019 of, 11Baiseitova, 4973 Street, Zhibek Zholy and Dostyk Avenue will start (Figure 18). What21 of 26is your opinion?

Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 21 of 27 Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 21 of 27 A majority of respondents (63%) as shown in Figure 19 were positive towards turning three city centreA majority streets of into respondents pedestrian (63%) priority as shownstreets. inHowever, Figure 19 some were respondents positive towards wished toturning stop doing three reconstructioncity centre streets work into only pedestrian in the ci priorityty centre street area,s. asHowever, some districts some respondentsin the outskirts wished of Almaty to stop do doing not havereconstruction proper roads work and only roadway in the ci orty propercentre area,lighting. as some districts in the outskirts of Almaty do not have proper roads and roadwayFigure 18. or Zhibek proper Zholy lighting. Street’s visualization model.

Figure 19. Percentage of public attitude towards reconstruction of three streets. Figure 19. Percentage of public attitude toward towardss reconstruction of three streets. 6.2. Recommendations for Almaty 6.2. Recommendations for Almaty In the feasibility study, it was assumed that construction of additional outer bypasses around BAKADIn the would feasibilityfeasibility reduce study, the traffic itit waswas assumedintensityassumed thatonthat it, constructionco panstructionrticularly ofof by additionaladditional removing outer the bypassestransit flow around that followsBAKAD the wouldwould international reduce reduce the thetransport tra trafficﬃc intensity corridorintensity on “Western it,on particularly it, pa Europe–Westernrticularly by removing by removing China”. the transit the It cantransit ﬂow be that seenflow follows from that thefollows internationalmaster the planinternational of transport Almaty’s transport corridor suburban “Westerncorridor area “Western Europe–Westerndevelopment Europe–Western (Figure China”. 20) Itthat China”. can there be seen It will can from bebe themoreseen master fromring roadsplanthe master of constructed Almaty’s plan suburbanof around Almaty’s areaAlmaty. suburban development BAKAD area (Figurewilldevelop be 20thement) thatnucleus (Figure there of will 20)development, be that more there ring willand roads bewill constructed more generate ring newaroundroads trips constructed Almaty. between BAKAD thearound city will centreAlmaty. be the and nucleusBAKAD suburban of will development, areas be the (where nucleus andthe new willof development, generatering road new will and trips be built).will between generate Due the to thesecitynew centretrips growing between and suburbantravel the distancescity areas centre (wherein and the suburban thenon-controll new ringareased road (where spatially will the be extendednew built). ring Due roadAlmaty to thesewill districts, be growing built). a Due travelgreat to numberdistancesthese growing of in private the travel non-controlled vehicles distances will spatially causein the unsustainablenon-controll extended Almatyed “development spatially districts, extended a greatof the number Almatyurban transport of districts, private system” vehiclesa great will[59].number cause of unsustainable private vehicles “development will cause unsustainable of the urban transport “development system” of [the59]. urban transport system” [59].

Figure 20. Master plan of Almaty’s suburban area development. Source: [60]. [60]. Figure 20. Master plan of Almaty’s suburban area development. Source: [60]. Instead of building numerous bypasses around Almaty, approach to the induced traffic problemInstead must of be building rethought. numerous As was foundbypasses in thearou UKnd case, Almaty, congestion approach reduction to the by induced extending traffic the roadproblem network must alonebe rethought. (concept As1) iswas not found effective in the in theUK longcase, run.congestion A long-term reduction solution by extending for reducing the congestionroad network requires alone (conceptmaking road1) is spacenot effective for public in the transport, long run. pedestrians A long-term and solution cyclists. for Therefore, reducing peoplecongestion will requiresswitch to making more sustainable, road space space-efficient for public transport, modes ofpedestrians transport: walking,and cyclists. cycling, Therefore, buses, tramspeople and will trains. switch These to more are elementssustainable, of the space-efficient 2nd and 3rd modes concepts of transport:of congestion walking, reduction cycling, studied buses, in thistrams research, and trains. which These have are been elements proved of theto be 2nd effe andctive. 3rd For concepts instance, of congestion Hasselt and reduction Stockholm, studied which in werethis research, considered which in detail, have beenand th provede other to cities be effe in ctive.Table For1 demons instance,trated Hasselt sound and results Stockholm, in decreasing which trafficwere considered congestion in (car detail, use). and The th modale other shift cities from in Table driving 1 demons requirestrated investment sound resultsin order in todecreasing improve traffic congestion (car use). The modal shift from driving requires investment in order to improve Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 22 of 26

Instead of building numerous bypasses around Almaty, approach to the induced traffic problem must be rethought. As was found in the UK case, congestion reduction by extending the road network alone (concept 1) is not effective in the long run. A long-term solution for reducing congestion requires making road space for public transport, pedestrians and cyclists. Therefore, people will switch to more sustainable, space-efficient modes of transport: walking, cycling, buses, trams and trains. These are elements of the 2nd and 3rd concepts of congestion reduction studied in this research, which have been proved to be effective. For instance, Hasselt and Stockholm, which were considered in detail, and the other cities in Table1 demonstrated sound results in decreasing tra ffic congestion (car use). The modal shift from driving requires investment in order to improve sustainable transport modes, while at the same time the capacity, access and convenience of urban road networks for motor vehicles must be minimized. Thus, the following recommendations can be made for Almaty city’s mobility approach:

Apply a mixed land use approach to reduce travel distances in Almaty. • Develop a centralized spatial planning system that integrates both transport infrastructure and • land-use development. Introduce a congestion charge (toll) for driving a car in the city centre, and then the revenues from • tolls can be further invested in public transport facilities in Almaty. Ideally, it should be aimed to make the city centre a car-free zone; thus, an excellent public • transport alternative must be ensured. For example, in Hasselt city, vehicle drivers are obliged to leave their cars outside the city centre and further reach their destinations by different modes. Start operation of LRT or restore operation of tram infrastructure that was developed during the • Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic period, and increase the routes of the existing underground metro. Increase the number of buses and the frequency of their operation, and ensure that drivers and • conductors are trained, polite and helpful to passengers with disabilities in getting into the bus. Add BRT lines on other streets in Almaty and prohibit gypsy taxi services on streets with BRT lines. • Reduce the number of parking lots in the city centre and convert them into pedestrian zones. • Impose a reasonable charge for parking, with short-term parking only, thereby discouraging car usage. Make cycling lanes safe for cyclists and give priority to cyclists on roads (as several cases • demonstrate that buses or private cars take up road space dedicated for cyclists), provide bike parking facilities near commercial, business centres (develop bike promoting programs). Develop train services and increase bus frequencies from the suburbs (Talgar, Kapchagay and • Kaskelen) to Almaty to remove the huge traffic flow coming daily from suburbs to the city centre for work and study. An expedited transition to gas of all heat power plants, public transport and residential sector in • Almaty and Almaty’s regional area to minimize air pollution. Remove unfit and old cars from roads to minimize air pollution. Organize various promotional and social campaigns such as car-free days, days with free-of-charge • bus service, etc. All stakeholders, including Almaty residents, must be involved in the planning process. • Develop a shared mobility taxi service to move more people with fewer vehicles; app-based • ride-hailing services such as Yandex, Uber, EcoTaxi.kz will need to apply such option for trips in Almaty and Almaty’s regional area.

Finally, it must be admitted that transport infrastructure is a crucial aspect for the economy of Kazakhstan. Considering Kazakhstan as a transit corridor country, and the importance of the strategic location of Almaty, it must develop an adaptive and robust transport infrastructure. Heavy engineering measure such as the BAKAD project is necessary to divert transit vehicles and unload inner city traﬃc. At the same time, sustainable solutions such as attractive public transport, walkability, compact spatial Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 23 of 26 planning, and restricted car usage in the city centre, as Push and Pull measures must be implemented to manage the traﬃc congestion in the long run.

7. Conclusions In this study, various approaches for mitigating traffic congestion in the long run were investigated in several cities and were classified into three concepts. The first concept comprises heavy engineering measures such as ring roads, bypass roads or roadway expansions, which provide short-lived relief to traffic congestion. This approach cannot solve the congestion problem alone, due to induced traffic demand, which might worsen the situation for traffic and the environment in the long run, as added road capacity leads to car-dependent development, which further results in growth of traffic volumes; therefore, a new urban roadway capacity is needed. Hence, alternative strategies that make more efficient use of existing capacity and promotion of alternative modes of transport must be applied in order to reduce congestion. These are known as travel demand management with Push and Pull measures and were categorized as concept 2 in this study. The third concept is a combination of heavy engineering measures and travel demand management with Push and Pull measures; this approach is suitable for cities that need to divert through traffic. The heavy engineering measures are necessary to increase the capacity of existing road(s) and other complementary measures provide more sustainable solutions to the traffic congestion in the long run. For the traffic congestion problem case in Almaty, it is strongly recommended that the implementation of the BAKAD project will be accompanied by extensive Push and Pull measures. It is anticipated that BAKAD alone will not be sufficient to solve the long-term traffic congestion problem in Almaty. It must be ensured that living and working places are concentrated in the city and are close to public transport facilities such as existing and new rail stations, which are built to corresponding density and urban structure that makes walking and cycling the most preferred mode of transport. Moreover, sufficient funding for high-quality LRT is needed to stimulate rail + bus and rail + pedestrian/cycle travel modes for working and living activities. Also, the removal of private vehicle traffic from the roads by application of travel demand management with Push and Pull measures such as charges for driving in a particular road, charged parking areas for employees and attractive public transport facilities at the same roads is needed. Finally, a major reconsideration of the regulations by which new road projects are appraised must be carried out. In a nutshell, specific recommendations include reasonable charging systems on BAKAD and in the city centre, improved public transport facilities in the city centre and from suburban areas, discouraging car dependency, control of taxi services including gypsy taxis, promotional and social campaigns such as car-free days, etc. These recommendations are supported by a detailed investigation of the congestion management approaches in many cities around the world and expert interviews related to the BAKAD project and the overall transportation system in Almaty city. However, detailed study must be conducted before implementing any Push and Pull measures. Moreover, appropriate programs to be developed for evaluating post-implementation impacts of BAKAD project and any other complementary measure taken to reduce traffic congestion in Almaty. Based on the data, the effectiveness of the added infrastructure capacity can be assessed, along with other measures, so that corrective actions can be taken, hence improving the traffic congestion. Finally, it should be noted that the results generated in this case study are helpful for this specific case, and the recommendations provided by the authors are not necessarily transferable.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, W.-H.A., J.R.K., M.A.H., A.N.; methodology, A.N., M.A.H., J.R.K.; investigation, A.N., M.A.H.; resources, J.R.K., W.-H.A.; data curation, A.N., J.R.K., M.A.H., W.-H.A.; writing—original draft preparation, A.N., M.A.H.; writing—review and editing, A.N., W.-H.A., J.R.K.; supervision, J.R.K., W.-H.A. Funding: This research was supported by the Nazarbayev University Research Fund under Grants #SOE2017003 and Sustainable Urban Mobility Research in Central Asia (SUMRICA) project. The authors are grateful for these sources of support. Any opinions, ﬁndings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the views of the Nazarbayev University. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4973 24 of 26

Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance and contributions of the respondents who participated in the interviews and provided valuable feedback for this research. Conﬂicts of Interest: The authors declare no conﬂict of interest.

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