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On-Line Education Material at CCMC On-Line Education Material at CCMC George Siscoe, M. Kuznetsova, A. Chulaki, D. Berrios A. Taktakishvili, A. Pulkkinen, L. Rastaetter, M. Hesse M. Maddox, P. MacNeice Outline • CCMC Support of Heliophysics Summer School • General Purpose Runs for Education and Research • Idea of On-line Educational Courses on Space Physics and Space Weather that Use CCMC Simulations • DEMO of the First of the Series of Modules on Earth’s Magnetosphere (George Siscoe, Anna Chulaki) George Siscoe George Siscoe Sandro Taktakishvili Antti Pulkkinen SOHO Satellite Instrument Images for 4 Moments of time t1<t2<t3<t4. EIT‐ EUV Imaging Telescope LASCO C2 Coronograph LASCO C3 Coronograph t1 t2 t3 t4 5 ExerciseExercise 11:: WhichWhich instrumentinstrument hashas dedetectedtected ththee CMECME appearanceappearance firstfirst andand whwhen?en? Average CME Speed from the Catalog at IACS CUA (http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) (Exercise 4) There were 8 halo CMEs in March and April of 2002 listed in this catalog. CME date Catalog POS speed TheThe tabltablee showsshows halohalo CMECMEss inin MarchMarch andand AprilApril 20022002 listedlisted At 2 Rs inin ththee catalog,catalog, justjust bebeforefore 2002/04/172002/04/17 CMECME occurred.occurred. (km/sec) OneOne ofof thethe waysways ofof forecastingforecasting CMECME arrivalarrival timestimes isis toto 2002/03/10 1429 estimateestimate ththee propagationpropagation timtimee ofof anan “average”“average”sspeedpeed 2002/03/11 950 CME.CME. 2002/03/14 907 ExerciseExercise 4:4: TakingTaking thethe averageaverage ofof halohalo CMECME speedsspeeds listedlisted inin thethe TableTable 2002/03/15 957 estimateestimate thethe arrivalarrival timetime ofof thethe “average”“average” sspeedpeed CMECME toto thethe EarthEarth andand comparecompare itit toto thethe observedobserved arrivalarrival timetime andand thethe arrivalarrival timetime obtainedobtained inin thethe ExercisExercisee 3.3. 2002/03/18 989 WhichWhich ofof thethe esestimatestimates workedworked better?better? 6 2002/03/20 603 The CME when it reaches 1 AU e edg ng adi eam E le str CM ind ar w Sol ExerciseExercise 8:8: PlPlotot thethe prprogressogress ofof thethe CMECME leadingleading edgeedge fromfrom ititss ororiginigin toto 22 AU.AU. ObtainObtain thethe velocityvelocity asas aa functionfunction ofof distancedistance fromfrom thethe sunsun (also(also asas aa functionfunction ofof time).time). EstimateEstimate thethe decdecelerationeleration ofof thethe CMECME asas aa functfunctionion ofof distance.distance. Shock Arrival Time Results CME Detection by ACE Satellite Apr 19, 08:00 T = 48 h Climatology Model Apr 19, 00:00 T = 40 h LASCO C2 Image Analysis 1.Apr 18, 20:00 T1 = 36 h 2. Apr 19, 05:00 T2 = 45 h T2 = (5/4) T1 Enlil Cone Model Apr 19, 07:00 T = 47 h CME Leading Edge Position 2 1.5 1 Distance in in AU Distance 0.5 0 0 20406080100120 Time in Hours 9 General Purpose Runs for Education and Research > 100 runs On-line Educational Courses on Space Physics and Space Weather • Combine CCMC simulations with tutorials. • Can be utilized by teaches, researchers. • Repository of lectures. • Cool features of on-line tools. Flexibility: user/student can stop, restart, go back, click on links with supplemental material. • Cannot ask question. Frequently asked questions (asked through the e-mail) can be periodically updated. • Feedback/Ideas/Participation are invited. Supplementary Slides CME Velocity Estimate C2 Coronograph Image for the Moment of Time t3 The CME is very prominent in C2 image, but yet barely noticeable in C3 image. t3 ExerciseExercise 2:2: EstimateEstimate thethe projectionprojection ofof speedspeed ofof thethe CMECME onon thethe planeplane ofof skysky V.V. AssumeAssume thatthat thethe CMECME leadingleading edgeedge reachedreached thethe C2C2 windowwindow edgeedge inin horizontalhorizontal directiondirection (4Rs,(4Rs, solarsolar radiusradius Rs=700,000Rs=700,000 km)km) atat thethe momentmoment ofof timetime 2002/04/172002/04/17 08:5008:50 UT.UT. TheThe 14 CMECME startstart timetime 2002/04/172002/04/17 08:0008:00 UT.UT. What is a CME/ICME ? A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an ejection of material from the solar corona, detected remotely with a white‐light coronagraph. When the CME reaches the Earth as an ICME (Interplanetary CME), it may disrupt the Earth's magnetosphere, compressing it on the dayside and extending the nightside tail. The most severe geomagnetic storms are caused by CME events. CMEs can result in damage to satellites, disruption of radio transmissions, damage to electrical transmission lines and power outages. That is why knowing the arrival time of CMEs at the Earth accurately and it’s possible magnitude of impact is of crucial importance in predicting space weather. Here we are studying a CME that was ejected from the sun on April 17, 2002 and reached the Earth approximately 48 hours later. 15 ENLIL Cone Model SAT Prediction ENLIL: Density and velocity magnitude of the solar wind at the ACE position (R=0.99 AU, Latitude=0 deg, Longitude=180 deg) Enlil Cone Model Apr 19, 07:00 T=47h Cone Model for Halo CME TheThe concept:concept: •• CMECME propagatespropagates withwith nearlynearly constantconstant angularangular widthwidth inin aa radialradial directiondirection •• TheThe sourcesource isis nearnear thethe solasolarr discdisc centrecentre •• CMECME bulkbulk velocityvelocity isis radialradial andand thethe expansionexpansion isis isotropicisotropic AnalyticalAnalytical method:method: •• TheThe projectionprojection ofof thethe conecone onon thethe POSPOS isis anan ellipseellipse •• FromFrom twotwo ellipsesellipses ofof twotwo consecutiveconsecutive C3C3 runningrunning didifferencefference imagesimages wewe cancan derivederive thethe CMECME radialradial speedspeed andand thethe conecone orientationorientation –– iinputnput toto thethe ENLILENLIL heliosphereheliosphere mmodelodel 17 Shock Arrival Time Error For 10 CMEs Enlil Cone Model vs. Climatology Arrival Time Error (abs. value in hours) 24 22 climatology model ENLIL 20 18 16 14 our storm 12 10 8 6 10% 4 2 0 8/24/02 10/29/03 12/13/06 -- 4/24/99 6/01/99 11/8/00 3/29/01 10/9/01 4/19/02 8/16/02 EVENT Enlil Cone Model: < 10% error in 90% of events .
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