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Zürcher Beiträge zur Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktforschung Nr. 64 Myriam Dunn Information Age Conflicts A Study of the Information Revolution and a Changing Operating Environment Hrsg.: Kurt R. Spillmann und Andreas Wenger Forschungsstelle für Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktanalyse der ETH Zürich Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface 5 Abbreviations 9 List of Tables and Figures 13 Introduction 15 Part I – Model Development of a Research Framework 25 1 Theoretical Background 27 2 Developing a Model 42 3 Deducing the Hypotheses and Operationalization 46 Part II – Theory Concepts to Explain a Changing International System 55 1 The Background of Change: A Phenomenon Dubbed Information Revolution 59 2 Redistribution and Changing Nature of Power 73 3 The Information Revolution’s Impact on Military Affairs 85 Part III – Data Collection Operation Allied Force, 25 March–10 June 1999 99 1 Current Military Doctrinal Perception of Information’s Role in Warfare 102 2 Struggle for Air and Information Superiority: Aspects of Information Operations 121 3 Influencing Factors in Kosovo 161 4 Level of Credibility throughout Operation Allied Force 162 5 Intervening Variables 166 6 Level of Success of Operation Allied Force 167 Part IV – Analysis Identifying Factors that Influence Information Age Conflicts 173 1 Asymmetric Credibility 176 2 Technology, Terrain, Weather, International Law 182 3 Asymmetrical Challenge 187 4 Blurring State Boundaries and Multiplication of Actors 191 5 Multiplication of Influential Actors 195 6 Blurring of Boundaries between Military and Politics 199 7 Blurring of Boundaries between Battlefield and Civilian Realm 204 8 Information Operations Decisive in Information Age Conflicts 207 9 Conclusion: Which Influencing Factors Hamper Information Age Conflicts and How Strongly 208 Part V – Review Criticizing the Model 213 1 Reassessing the Five Theorems 215 2 Revising the Model 219 Conclusion 223 Bibliography 233 4 5 Preface The basic conditions in which international relations operate have undergone some fundamental changes in the past decade. Most experts agree that the information revolution is an important com- ponent of this ongoing transformation. The unity of the state, of society, and of the economy can no longer be taken for granted: Geographic boundaries have lost in importance, and the boundar- ies between conventional political spaces have become blurred. The spaces in which power and influence are created and from which they are exerted no longer comprise only the „hard“ spheres of ter- ritory, the military, and resources, but now also include the „soft“ spheres of information, technology, and flexible institutions. Although there is a general belief that the information revolution is causing a widespread restructuring of the international system, it is difficult to pinpoint the exact nature of these changes. Academ- ics are still struggling to understand the often contradictory and volatile developments and the increasing complexity brought about by the information revolution. A variety of theories and concepts have been proposed in the past few years by scholars attempting to grasp the theoretical and practical impacts of recent developments and to explain the changes to international politics induced by the information revolution. One important aim of the present study is to review these fragmentary theories and to fuse them into theorems that will help us to describe the changing environment in the infor- mation age and that will further the development of new conceptual paradigms. This study focuses on a potential new form and class of war, which the author terms „information age conflict“ (IAC). The information revolution has dramatically increased the importance 4 5 of information in the strategic world, alongside existing traditional physical military capabilities, and the information domain has moved to center stage in combat. As a consequence, new forms of warfare are being created. IACs are conducted according to new doctrine papers that describe the ways in which information opera- tions are conducted, with substantial consequences for military affairs, politics, and society as a whole. Using a model derived from the aforementioned theorems and illustrated by the situation that arose during Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, the author, Myriam Dunn, identifies factors in the emerging operating environment that substantially influence the successful managing and waging of IACs, as well as factors that are likely to pose problems for decision-makers. Dunn describes the effects of the information revolution on international relations in general and on warfare in particular and demonstrates her find- ings by means of a case study. Pointing out the implications of these new developments in warfare not only for the military but also for society and international security in general, Dunn draws atten- tion to the crucial issue of newly emerging threats and risks to the information society. Dunn was awarded the Gustav Däniker Award (Förderpreis), sponsored by the Society for Security Policy and Military Science (Verein für Sicherheitspolitik und Wehrwissenschaft, VSWW), for her master thesis, published here in a slightly modified form.* A jury of experts chose Dunn’s thesis for its academic excellence and its ground-breaking findings. At the award presentation, Dunn pre- sented her results to renowned academics, military officers, govern- ment staff, and the press. The editors would like to thank the author, a research assistant at the Center for Security Studies and Conflict Research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich, for her con- * The publication was concluded in October 2001. New developments were not taken into account 6 7 tribution to a better understanding of the impacts of the information revolution on the international system and for her pioneering efforts in tackling an as yet barely investigated but highly relevant topic. Zurich, November 2002 Prof. Dr. Kurt R. Spillmann Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger Leiter der Stellvertretender Leiter der Forschungsstelle für Sicherheitspolitik Forschungsstelle für Sicherheitspolitik und Konfliktanalyse und Konfliktanalyse 6 7 9 Abbreviations AF: Air Force AFDD: Air Force Doctrine Document ASD PA: Assistant Secretary of Defense, Public Affairs AWACS: Airborne Warning and Control System C2W: Command and Control Warfare C3I: Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence C4: Command, Control, Communications and Computers C4I: Command, Control, Communications and Computers and Intelligence C4ISR: Command, Control, Computer, Communica- tions, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Recon- naissance CAOC: Combined Air Operations Center CI: Counter-Information or Counter-Intelligence CIA: Central Intelligence Agency CINCUSAFE: Commander-In-Chief of US Air Forces in Europe CJCS: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff CJTF: Combined Joint Task Force CNN: Cable News Network COTS: Commercially Off-the-Shelf DASD PA: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Public Affairs DBA: Dominant Battlespace Awareness 9 DBK: Dominant Battlespace Knowledge DCI: Defensive Counter-Information DIA: Defense Information Agency DII: Defense Information Infrastructure DIO: Defensive Information Operations DoD: Department of Defense (US) DV: Dependent Variable EMP: Electro-Magnetic Pulse EW: Electronic Warfare FM: Field Manual FRY: Former Republic of Yugoslavia FYROM: Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia GATSGAM: GPS-Aided Targeting System Guided Air Missile GIE: Global Information Environment GII: Global Information Infrastructure GIS: Geographic Information System GPS: Global Positioning System HERF: High Energy Radio Frequency HIC: High-Intensity Conflict HQ: Head Quarters IA: Information Assurance IAC: Information Age Conflict IGO: International Governmental Organizations IntV: Intervening Variable IO: Information Operations ISR: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance IV: Intervening Variable 10 11 IW: Information Warfare J-5: Joint Staff Plans and Policy JCS: Joint Chiefs of Staff JDAM: Joint Direct Attack Munitions JP: Joint Publication JV: Joint Vision KLA: Kosovo Liberation Army LIC: Low Intensity Conflict MIE: Military Information Environment MNC: Multinational Corporation MoD: Ministry of Defense (GB) MRC: Major Regional Conflict NAC: North Atlantic Council NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO: Non-Governmental Organization ICT: Information and Communication Technologies NII: National Information Infrastructure OCI: Offensive Counter-Information OIO: Offensive Information Operations OOTW: Operations-Other-Than-War OPSEC: Operations Security PA: Public Affairs PAO: Public Affairs Officer PGM: Precision-Guided Munitions PSYOP: Psychological Operations SACEUR: Supreme Allied Commander Europe SHAPE: Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe SIO: Special Information Operations 10 11 UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle US: United States USAF: United States Air Force 12 13 List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Circumstances for Falsification of the Hypotheses 50 Table 2: The Model’s Variables, their Values, and Operationalization 52 Table 3: Pro and Contra Arguments for a Democratizing Effect of the Internet 68 Table 4: Five Major Thematic Definitions of the Information Society 70 Table 5: Theories and Concepts of Power 74 Table 6: Impact of ICT on the Pattern of International Actors 84 Table 7: Comparison of the Concepts Cyberwar and Netwar 94 Table 8: Martin Libicki’s Seven Sub-Concepts of Information Warfare 103 Table 9: Winn Schwartau’s Class Distinction of Information
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