Naval War College Review Volume 54 Article 6 Number 2 Spring 2001 War Gaming in the Information Age—Theory and Purpose Paul Bracken Martin Shubik Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Bracken, Paul and Shubik, Martin (2001) "War Gaming in the Information Age—Theory and Purpose," Naval War College Review: Vol. 54 : No. 2 , Article 6. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol54/iss2/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Bracken and Shubik: War Gaming in the Information Age—Theory and Purpose WAR GAMING IN THE INFORMATION AGE Theory and Purpose Paul Bracken and Martin Shubik ver twenty years ago, a study was carried out under the sponsorship of the ODefense Advanced Research Projects Agency and in collaboration with the General Accounting Office to survey and critique the models, simulations, and war games then in use by the Department of Defense.1 From some points of view, twenty years ago means ancient history; changes in communication tech- nology and computers since then can be measured Paul Bracken, professor of management and of political science at Yale University, specializes in national security only in terms of orders of magnitudes. The new world and management issues. He is the author of Command of the networked battlefield, super-accurate weapons, and Control of Nuclear Forces (1983) and of Fire in the and the information technology (IT) revolution, with its East: The Rise of Asian Military Power and the Second Nuclear Age (HarperCollins, 1999). He is a member of instant communication and seamless feedback, seems the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on the Chief as far away from the mud of trench warfare in Flanders of Naval Operations Executive Panel. field as World War I was from the battle of Agincourt. Dr. Shubik is currently the Seymour H. Knox Professor of Mathematical Institutional Economics at Yale Uni- The present era in society, business, and warfare versity. He received his B.A. and M.S. degrees from the has been called “the information age,” and with good University of Toronto, Ontario, in 1947 and 1949, re- reason, given the extraordinary influence that the spectively; he received his A.M. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Princeton University in 1951 and 1953, exponential advances in information technology and respectively. His main academic concerns are the theory the increasing accuracy and lethality of weaponry of money and financial institutions, the theory of games have had on these institutions. But human beings and their relationship to strategic behavior, and the man- agement and economics of cultural institutions. He is the and their biological data-processing, interpreting, author of approximately twenty books and over two hun- and decision-making abilities have not changed at the dred articles, specializing primarily in strategic analysis. rates of these impressive technologies. Indeed, they An earlier draft of this paper was delivered at a confer- ence on war gaming held at the Naval War College on have not changed at all. Neither has the new technol- 6–7 March 2000. ogy changed the purposes of, or the principles behind, war gaming. It has added new problems, however, © 2001 by Paul Bracken and Martin Shubik Naval War College Review, Spring 2001, Vol. LIV, No. 2 and it has made even more difficult the resolution of Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2001 1 Naval War College Review, Vol. 54 [2001], No. 2, Art. 6 48 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW enduring problems that were critical twenty years ago. Notwithstanding the in- disputable benefits of many forms of gaming, formal model building, and simu- lations, it appears that these sciences—as was the case with operations research, the behavioral sciences, and artificial intelligence (and now “complexity the- ory”)—were heavily oversold and their promise rashly overestimated in the 1960s and 1970s. From their introduction by William McCarty Little in 1886, only manual war games were played at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, until 1958, when the Navy Electronic Warfare Simulator was built, heralding a new era in war gaming by tying it to the computer. Others were to develop this link to ever greater degrees. The expansion of new gaming centers at the Air War Col- lege, the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, National Defense University, and at the Joint Forces Command (until October 1999 the U.S. Atlantic Com- mand), along with the growth of for-profit consulting companies, helped to spread computer-based gaming and led to advances in war gaming and military operations research. These developments were not an unmixed blessing, however. Along with the greater ability to handle complexity and administrative detail came a potential for loss of “transparency”—awareness by players of a game’s underlying assumptions—and a temptation to add “realistic features” to games, because it was so technologically easy to do so, without thinking much about whether the additions added to or detracted from the games’ underlying pur- poses. The push for added complexity rarely came from the people who thought games were a good way to test concepts or plans. Rather, it originated mainly from the technical community of analysts and gamers. There is now a divide be- tween an increasingly specialized community of gamers and modelers on the one hand, and policy makers on the other; this divide is greater today than it was in the 1970s. Gamers have to market their capabilities the way any business does. There is nothing wrong with this, per se. But experience indicates that this mar- keting, and much of gaming’s development over the past twenty years, has been aimed at other gamers rather than the policy-making community. It has been aimed even less at casting light on new challenges to U.S. security management, challenges that barely existed twenty years ago. Why has this happened? The reasons are, first, that with computer-driven games it becomes easy to hide layer upon layer of complexity behind user inter- faces that few people understand; and second, that the impact on the policy pro- cess of program “modules” that are opaque to players is not considered. There is much to commend simplicity, in light of the inherent limitation of human data processing, especially when dealing with decision makers. With manual war games, it was not feasible to add “bells, whistles, and gongs”; careful thought was https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol54/iss2/6 2 Bracken and Shubik: War Gaming in the Information Age—Theory and Purpose BRACKEN & SHUBIK 49 required in designing every single move in the sparse abstraction that consti- tuted a game. Over the last twenty years, however, models, simulations, and games have merged with each other. The boundaries separating them are no longer clear, making overall assessment far more difficult. Modeling has become more com- plex, but thinking has not. The The gold lies in human thought—assisted by very unreality of manual games modern communication and computers, not made them real, in the sense that distracted by them. it forced attention to key ques- tions. That is why simple board games, like the Kriegspiel, were adopted by European general staffs in the nine- teenth century. Playing them sharpened everyone’s tactical and strategic sense. As Karl von Mueffling, the chief of the General Staff of the Prussian army, de- clared in 1824, at the very start of war gaming, “It’s not a game at all, it’s a train- ing for war; I shall recommend it most emphatically to the whole army.” Asked what games they like to play and what strategists they read, today’s Chinese gen- erals give an illuminating answer: they play Go and read Sun Tzu, because be- neath their surface simplicity, the generals tell us, “there is great complexity.”2 The advances in gaming since its inception have been large, whether we con- sider table games at the platoon level, tactical exercises, theater games, or political- military games up to the level of global war. But despite the greater complexity and technology, many old problems remain, and have even been magnified. The fascina- tion with analytics and the attractiveness of trying to quantify phenomena we do not know how to describe accurately, let alone measure, suppresses many phenom- ena that may be of the essence in the darkness, turmoil, and confusion of real war. CNN pictures of “smart” missiles homing in on targets hardly convey the factors of morale, bravery, improvisation, trust, and the many others that weave a great armed force together. As yet, computers do not provide wisdom. Seasoned, nonpartisan referees like Frank McHugh, military historians with the skills of a Harvey DeWeerd, and operational analysts of the quality of an Edward Paxon of RAND—all names that are likely unknown to the current war-gaming community—were once able to provide experiential depth that is still needed but is now harder to obtain than ever. A striking feature of the current gaming environment in contrast to that of two and three decades ago is the absence of generalists with an overview of both gaming technology and the decision-making process by which things actually get done. This is not just carping about the good old days: such generalist out- looks are now being applied to, and revolutionizing, a different field.