View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by DSpace@MIT Public Transportation is Not Going to Work: Non-Work Travel Markets for the Future of Mass Transit by Alexander Nobler Cohen B.A., Urban Studies Columbia University, 2001 Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master in City Planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology February 2004 © 2004 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. Signature of Author: Department of Urban Studies and Planning January 21, 2004 Certified by: Joseph Ferreira Jr. Professor of Urban Planning and Operations Research Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: Dennis Frenchman Chair, MCP Committee Department of Urban Studies and Planning Public Transportation is Not Going to Work: Non-Work Travel Markets for the Future of Mass Transit by Alexander Nobler Cohen Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning on January 21, 2004 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning ABSTRACT For public transportation agencies to attract new riders in an automobile-dominated environment, niche markets must be targeted. The downtown journey to work is already recognized as a successful niche for transit. This thesis seeks to identify non-work travel markets with strong ridership potential. Nationwide data sources indicate that about half of all transit trips in the largest US cities are non- work trips, and that non-work travel has contributed to transit ridership growth in 13 of 20 large US cities. Based on these findings, St. Louis and Chicago are selected as cases for further analysis. St. Louis is the successful case, in which non-work travel contributed to overall ridership growth in the 1990’s. Chicago is the baseline case, in which overall ridership declined in the 1990’s, with no evidence of growth in non-work ridership. Detailed case studies of St. Louis and Chicago are conducted. First, an overview is presented, providing a description of transit routes; a profile of transit riders; and an understanding of recent ridership changes. Next, non-work ridership markets are identified, based on original analysis of travel survey data and off-peak ridership data. Finally, the characteristics of those markets are reviewed, based on secondary sources, press articles, and existing market research. This is done in order to evaluate the benefits of providing transit service to each market, and the effectiveness of current transit service to each market. Five non-work travel markets are identified in the case studies as strong sources of ridership. These markets are: tourists; large events; shopping; younger adults without children, living in urban areas; and people who prefer not to own cars. To pursue non-work ridership growth, transit agencies must be proactive about improving service to meet the unique needs of these markets. Doing so can yield a variety of social, political, and economic benefits for the transit agency, transit riders, and the general public. In conclusion, recommendations are offered for effective transit service to each non-work travel market. General recommendations are offered, as well as specific applications to the Chicago Transit Authority and to Tren Urbano in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Thesis Supervisor: Joseph Ferreira Jr. Title: Professor of Urban Planning and Operations Research Thesis Reader: Nigel H. M. Wilson Title: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Acknowledgements Needless to say, this thesis would not have been possible without the advice and support of numerous individuals. I am grateful to those listed below, as well as to so many others. On the MIT faculty, I would like to thank… Joe Ferreira, for serving capably as my advisor Joe Coughlin, for helping me get started Fred Salvucci, for providing invaluable advice along the way Nigel Wilson, for your comments on the final product On the MIT staff, I would like to thank… Ginny Siggia and Sandy Wellford, for your ongoing assistance and flexibility Among my fellow students at MIT, I would like to thank… Jeff Busby, Julie Kirschbaum, and Jinhua Zhao, for the lively exchange of ideas on “intern row” Ajay Martin, for your company when traveling to St. Louis Jordan Karp and Aaron Koffman, for passing along documents that proved very useful Outside of MIT, I would like to thank… Bruce Schaller, at Schaller Consulting, for inspiring the topic of this thesis Gabriel Moreno Viqueira, at the University of Puerto Rico, for your insight on San Juan Peter Foote, Jeff Sriver, and David Urbanczyk at the Chicago Transit Authority, for making my summer internship an enjoyable and productive experience Crucially, I would like to thank everyone who responded to my requests for data… Bill Lyons and Larry Labell at the Volpe Center Jason Lange and Todd Brauer at the East-West Gateway Coordinating Council David Beal at Metro St. Louis Kevin O’Malley at the Chicago Transit Authority Most importantly, I would like to thank my wonderful wife and family, for your continued moral (and financial) support, and for tolerating my bizarre schedule and all of my sleepless nights… Jane Chuang Ted and Cindy Cohen Max Cohen Table of Contents Maps 6 St. Louis Metropolitan Region Downtown St. Louis City of Chicago The CTA Rail System Tren Urbano – Phase I I. Introduction 11 Motivation Approach II. Literature Review 17 Scope of this literature review Non-work travel by automobile Mode choice for non-work travel Implications of the literature III. Nationwide Findings and the Selection of Case Studies 32 Selection of major metropolitan areas Non-work transit trips as a share of total transit trips Growth in transit journeys to work Growth in total transit ridership Non-work travel as a driver of transit ridership growth Selection of case study areas Case study research methodology IV. St. Louis Case Study: Overview and Identification of Markets 51 Transit ridership by mode, 1990 to 2000 Census journey-to-work data by mode and county Description of the MetroLink route Demographic profile of MetroLink riders Non-work riders: Analysis of East-West Gateway survey results Non-work destinations: Analysis of MetroLink ridership data Identification of MetroLink non-work travel markets V. Chicago Case Study: Overview 79 Transit ridership by mode, 1990 to 2000 Census journey-to-work data by mode and county Description of the CTA route network Demographic profile of CTA riders CTA service changes in the 1990’s Understanding CTA ridership changes in the 1990’s VI. Chicago Case Study: Identification of Markets 104 Non-work riders: Analysis of recent CTA survey results Non-work destinations: Analysis of CTA ridership data Identification of CTA non-work travel markets VII. St. Louis Case Study: Characteristics of Markets 131 Sporting events Tourists Shopping VIII. Chicago Case Study: Characteristics of Markets 147 Younger adults without children, living in North Side neighborhoods People who choose not to own cars because they prefer to ride CTA Shopping travel, particularly by transit-dependent riders Sporting events IX. Conclusions and Applications to Tren Urbano and the CTA 170 How to serve non-work travel markets Why St. Louis succeeded while Chicago did not The costs and benefits of pursuing non-work ridership Conclusion: The multiple objectives of public transportation Opportunities for future research Applications to Tren Urbano Applications to the Chicago Transit Authority Bibliography 195 tF2vouis2wetropolitn2egion @ vmert2eirport @ wdison2gounty @ @ sllinois @ @ @ howntown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tF2vouis2gounty wissouri tF2vouis2gity ist2tF2vouis wissouri tF2glir2gounty sllinois S H S IH IS wiles x @ wetrovink2ttions wetrovink2oute snterstte2righwys i gounty2forders wississippi2iver porest2rk Joplin House A.G. Edwards Jefferson Ave. To Grand Center (approx. 1 mi.) 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