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Is the Financial Crisis the Only Threat to Swaziland's Regime?

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Is the Financial Crisis the Only Threat to Swaziland's Regime? DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT POLICY BRIEFING Is the financial crisis the only threat to Swaziland's regime? Abstract Swaziland is one of the smallest African countries as well as the only absolute monarchy remaining on the continent. Its political system is an anomaly in Southern Africa, the most advanced and progressive region of the sub-Saharan region. The Swazi state has been mired in a deep financial crisis for the last two years. Given that a large segment of the population lives under the poverty line and that the HIV infection rate is one of the highest in the world, the effects of the financial crisis have been severe. The Swazi people, who have traditionally shown great reverence to their monarch, are growing increasingly critical, blaming the crisis on the government’s mismanagement. King Mswati III's eccentric lifestyle and apparent lack of consideration for the difficulties faced by his people have eroded the regime’s credibility. Political repression has grown. Given the lack of representation built into the country's political system, and the absence of checks and balances, the possibilities for political evolution in the absence of royal leadership are nearly inexistent. While the Swazi crisis has not made international headlines recently, the country's problems persist. The International Monetary Fund left the country in May and, if the announced South African bailout is not agreed by Swaziland due to its conditionality, a peak of the crisis may be expected in late 2012 or early 2013. FOR EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT INTERNAL USE ONLY DG EXPO/B/PolDep/Note/2012_274 September 2012 PE 491.438 EN Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies This Policy Briefing is an initiative of the Policy Department, DG EXPO. AUTHOR: Fernando GARCÉS DE LOS FAYOS Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union Policy Department WIB 06 M 077 rue Wiertz 60 B-1047 Brussels Feedback to [email protected] is welcome. Editorial Assistant: Györgyi MÁCSAI LINGUISTIC VERSIONS: Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER: Manuscript completed on 7 September 2012. © European Union, 2012 Printed inBelgium This Policy Briefing is available on the intranet site of the Directorate-General for External Policies, in the Regions and countries or Policy Areas section. To obtain paper copies, please send a request by e-mail to: [email protected]. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation, except for commercial purposes, are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and provided the publisher is given prior notice and supplied with a copy of the publication. 2 Is the financial crisis the only threat to Swaziland's regime? Table of contents 1. THE LAST ABSOLUTE MONARCHY IN AFRICA 4 2. A SEVERE FINANCIAL CRISIS 7 3. SOME CONCLUSIONS, 10 INCLUDING A CONSIDERATION OF THE REGIONAL DIMENSION 10 3 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies 1. THE LAST ABSOLUTE MONARCHY IN AFRICA Swaziland is the last absolute monarchy in Africa. In the hands of Mswati III, it is a small country — the second smallest country in mainland Africa1 — but located in the middle of one of Africa's two most economically and democratically developed regions: southern Africa2. Swaziland is in fact the only country in southern Africa where, despite regular elections, the political system is not based on the competition of political parties. In 1973, the then King Shobuza II — who reigned during sixty one years and father of the current King3 — decided to ban political parties, despite provisions in the country’s first Constitution, from 1968. His son, Mswati III, pushed his father's reform one step further after assuming power in 19864: State powers in Swaziland after long consultations, the king promulgated a new constitution in 2005 are concentrated in the that provided for regular elections for the majority of the parliamentarians, king's hands and those of but without political parties. His argument for the transformation was that the political elite connected the monarchy consolidates the country's unity, while democracy in the to the king. British5 / Western style only 'causes division'. In fact, the text of the 2005 Constitution is contradictory, as on the one hand it guarantees freedom of association, and on the other it bans political parties and consolidates the enormous powers of the king, including by preserving the state of emergency set up by the king's father in 1973. The legal consolidation of this type of regime is particularly surprising in southern Africa of the 21st century. As the BBC country profile describes Swaziland, the country is 'an island of dictatorship in a sea of democracy'. Swaziland's only two neighbours, the richer South Africa and the poorer Mozambique, made successful transitions to democracy in 1994, each of them coming from very different dictatorship backgrounds — respectively, an apartheid racial regime and a Marxist-Leninist single-party regime which went through a long civil war. Yet Swaziland's absolute monarchy has survived, thanks to the traditional reverence paid by the Swazis to their King, who has always been regarded as the ruler given by God to them and who is assumed to always take the right decision for the country. In a larger context, it should be noticed that Swaziland is a mono ethnic state; a very rare example in Africa Swaziland is in fact governed by a relatively small elite, either belonging to 1 Without counting the African island / archipelago states. Inland on the African continent, only Gambia has a smaller area than Swaziland's 17 363 sq km. 2 The other is arguably northern Africa. 3 The last 18 of which Swaziland was already an independent country 4 Mswati III was only 14 years old when his father died and a regency of two queens was established until he was 18.. 5 Swaziland was transformed into a British Protectorate after the Second Boer War (1899- 1902) and remained one until its independence in 1968. The Bantu Swazis willingly joined the British forces in the hopes of retrieving the lands that had been confiscated by the Boers. 4 Is the financial crisis the only threat to Swaziland's regime? the extensive royal family or traditionally connected with it through tribal The king enjoys an extensive leaders or others. The king's large personal fortune and the royal family's fortune that reinforces his business reinforce the monarch's real power. According to Forbes power. magazine, Mswati III is one of the world's richest monarchs. Although the royal house rejects this allegation, Forbes describes his personal fortune at around EUR 100 million. Moreover the king's official position and power are reinforced by his position as the commander of the army and all other security forces — a post he exercises actively, not simply in name. Political parties and trade unions that oppose the absolute power of the King or the governing political elite in any way are not allowed to be Dissidents and trade unions registered or — if they already have been — are simply de-registered are severely repressed. when their speech turns critical of the regime. This happened earlier this year, when the new and reinvigorated Trade Union Congress of Swaziland (TUCOSWA) received an official certification of its registration in January, only to have it cancelled in March after its leaders pronounced themselves in favour of a their members' boycott of the next general elections, due in 20136. TUCOSWA is the result of the merger of two powerful traditional trade unions, the Swaziland Federation of Labour and the Swaziland National Association of Teachers. Nevertheless the Swazi political system provides for some sort of popular Elections are regularly held elections: the Swazi Parliament, the Libandla, is composed of two Houses. but without political parties. In its Lower House (House of Assembly), 55 of its 65 members are elected by popular vote, although the three candidates who run for election in each constituency or Tinkhundla (tribal community) are nominated by local councils led by the tribal leaders. In other words, the elections are not held on a political party basis, but rather present the best group of candidates as determined by the country’s elite. The other 10 members of the House of Assembly are appointed by the King, as are 20 of the 30 senators. The other 10 senators are appointed by the House of Assembly. The Swazi Parliament has five-year terms, and the next general elections to the lower House should be held before 19 September 2013. The main, outlawed opposition party, the People's United Democratic Political opposition is Movement (PUDEMO), is becoming gradually stronger and bolder. Along outlawed. with TUCOSWA, the party may, for the first time, be in a position in 2013 to defy the Tinkhundla electoral system by launching a credible boycott. 6 International support for Swazi trade unions is growing, as demonstrated at the meeting in London on 5 September on 'Swaziland: A Kingdom in crisis' organised by UK union Unison and South African ACTSA 7 CIVICUS 16 August 2012 http://www.civicus.org/media-centre-129/press-releases/1024- time-for-the-commonwealth-to-act-on-swaziland 8 http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Swazi-party-leader-killed-in-jail-20100506 9 http://www.newstimeafrica.com/archives/26620 10 The king probably refers here to the important casino industry of the country. This still prosperous, although the golden days, when South Africans had to cross the border to gamble, ended as soon as the puritanical apartheid regime was over. 5 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies Moreover Jan Sithole, a popular opposition leader who has been living in exile, recently appeared in the country announcing that he will be leading SWADEPA, a new organisation that wants to contest next year's election.
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