MONTHLY February 2018 CONTENTS 4 13 14 CHEMEZOV’S PRE- SHOIGU’S FEDERAL CLEAN-UP ELECTION OFFENSIVE REVENGE IN DAGESTAN THE BASE IN ŠIAULIAI FEDERAL CLEAN-UP 3 ON THE RUSSIAN TARGET 14 IN DAGESTAN CHEMEZOV’S PROBLEMS WITH 4 PRE-ELECTION OFFENSIVE 16 THE TURKISH STREAM PROJECT OIL, ELECTIONS AND ANTI-RUSSIAN THEATRE MERCENARIES. THE MASSACRE OF THE OLIGARCH VLAD 6 IN THE DEIR AL-ZOR PROVINCE 17 PLAHOTNIUC THE SAGA OF T-14 ARMATA: COMMUNISTS’ 7 AN END IN SIGHT? 19 UNFORTUNATE MANEUVER BASTRYKIN’S LONELY END. RUSSIANS THREATEN WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL 20 THE “INVISIBLE” FIGHTER 9 ELECTION MORE PRIVILEGES FOR THE 10 LUKOIL ON SALE? 21 FEDERAL PROTECTIVE SERVICE RUSSIA’S MIND GAMES A BLOW INTO THE RUSSIAN 12 WITH ISKANDER MISSILES 22 MONEY LAUNDRY 13 SHOIGU’S REVENGE www.warsawinstitute.org 2 SOURCE: WIKIPEDIA.ORG 9 February 2018 THE BASE IN ŠIAULIAI ON THE RUSSIAN TARGET Revealed information about the detainment of Lithuanians suspected of spying for Russia confirms, that the main object of interest of the Russian intelligence service is the Air Force Base in Šiauliai, which is a headquarters of NATO’s aircrafts participating in the Baltic Air Policing. Information about this facility was allegedly being passed to the Russian by two already detained Lithuanians, with a former military pilot among them. An officer in Šiauliai, captain Sergey Pushin was also sentenced last year to 5 years in prison for spying for Russia. A decision concerning his appeal will be pronounced in March. s Lithuanian law enforcement authorities was to have been passing information to the Arevealed, during last two months three Russian about the installation in the Port of citizens of Lithuania suspected of spying for Klaipeda and the navy. But the second case Russia had been detained. Two of them used seems to be more important as it concerns to serve in the army. None of the suspects espionage in Šiauliai. One of the suspects is had an access to the secret information. They a former military pilot and the second one is all were supposed to have been paid for their a senior of the Ministry of Defence who has activities. They may be sentenced to up to 15 a permanent residence permit in Russia. years in prison. It is known that detainments resulted from two separate investigations They both were supposed to have been conducted by the military counterintelligence collecting and conveying information about service (Second Investigation Department the military facility in Šiauliai to the Russian. under MND). One of the investigations led to It is another act of the Russian espionage the detainment of the Klaipeda dweller, who aimed at the Lithuania’s First Air Force www.warsawinstitute.org 3 Base beside the Šiauliai airport. Taking into in that region. consideration a minimal potential of the Lithuanian air forces, it is obvious that The suspects presumably worked for the what interests Moscow the most is the unit Russian military intelligence agency GRU. of NATO’s allies. Changing every few months But Russian civil services are as well active aircrafts of the respective members of the on the Lithuanian territory. In July 2017, Alliance are stationed in the nearby Zokniai an FSB agent, who was accused of trying to military airport. They participate in the wiretap the President Dalia Grybauskaitė, mission of protecting the airspace was sentenced for espionage to 10 years in of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (Baltic prison. Since 2014 in Lithuania, twelve people Air Policing mission) and especially in suspected of spying for Russia and Belarus last years they have to frequently react on have been denounced. Five were judged and provocative flights of the Russian air forces sentenced to prison. SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU 9 February 2018 CHEMEZOV’S PRE-ELECTION OFFENSIVE After the upcoming presidential elections in Russia and the reelection of Vladimir Putin, one may expect big personal changes among highest-ranking officials. Key players of the Russian ruling elite have already been fighting for influence, new positions and sources of income. Judging by the form of the campaign, the main winner will probably be Sergey Chemezov, CEO of Rostec State Corporation. His people seem to play important roles in the campaign; in addition, last year, Chemezov appeared to be very effective in all kinds of political games. www.warsawinstitute.org 4 ostec chief executive, who served together a number of successes (we have discussed this Rwith Putin in the KGB in Dresden, is issue in Russia Monitor). He constitutes one said to be associated with such people as the of the three strongest figures in the FSB, next official co-chairman of Putin’s presidential to the FSB director Alexander Bortnikov and campaign team and the actual head of the the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin, which seems campaign. Sergei Kogogin is one of the three to be corroborated by the events of July last heads of Putin’s campaign team. He is a long- year when a group of FSB officers tried to term head of KamAZ (the state-controlled force taking bribes in one of the companies truck manufacturer); Rostec owns 49,9% of its subordinate to Rostec. Eventually, the situation shares whereas another 12% belongs to Vitaliy ended up with their detention. In October Machitski, a friend of Chemezov. However, 2017, with the use of the FSB, Chemezov it is current head of Putin’s administration, forced the resignation of the Deputy Interior Anton Vaino, who is actually in charge of Minister Alexander Makhonov. It was all his election campaign (according to some about corruption allegations against his unofficial information). Due to the model subordinate officials who had been in conflict adopted, that is the one of a “non-partisan with Chemezov. candidate” (or even “people’s” one, as some tend to say), Putin’s campaign headquarters CEO of Rostec Corporation has been should not be composed of high-ranking responsible for appointing many officials. His officials. circle of associates includes the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Since his nomination for the head of the Denis Manturov (he is a member of the presidential administration in August 2016 Supervisory Board of Rostec) and a group (it was reportedly Chemezov himself who of governors appointed in recent years had lobbied for this designation), Vaino has (referred as so-called young technocrats). been very active and has been gaining his Among them, there are such officials as political capital. His father Eduard is an old the governor of Sevastopol Oblast Dmitry friend of Sergey Chemezov and holds the Ovsyannikov, the governor of Kaliningrad position of the vice president for international Oblast Anton Alikhanov, acting governor of relations and cooperation with shareholders Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Gleb Nikitin and of the company AVTOVAZ (a one-third of acting governor of Samara Oblast Dmitry its shares is owned by Rostec Corporation). Azarov. In September 2017, the latter replaced When he was appointed head of the Kremlin Nikolay Merkushkin who was in conflict with administration, Vaino had already been Chemezov. a member of the Supervisory Board of Rostec Corporation. Vaino is even expected In addition, CEO of Rostec Corporation to become a new prime minister after the remains in friendly relations with Viktor presidential election. In April 2017, we Zolotov (the current Director of the informed that Chemezov and the Rotenberg National Guard of Russia) and Yury Tchayka brothers had been lobbying for Vaino’s (Prosecutor General). Recently, they have candidacy for this position. clearly strengthened their positions and influence. It is possible that CEO of Rostec Chemezov has gained considerable influence will cooperate with them, basing on so-called in the services as well in the regional young technocrats (including Vaino), in order administration. He became active in the to gain even more influence in the Putin second half of 2017 when he achieved regime. www.warsawinstitute.org 5 SOURCE: SYRIA.MIL.RU 14 February 2018 OIL, ELECTIONS AND MERCENARIES. THE MASSACRE IN THE DEIR AL-ZOR PROVINCE The massacre of the Russian mercenaries by the American air forces and artillery in the Deir al-Zor province is a sign for Kremlin that the USA will not allow for crossing certain “red lines” in Syria. It is a part of a struggle for a post-war order in the country, not only when it comes to a political division, but also to an access to rich oil and gas resources. For Vladimir Putin it is a punch which has already considerably disturbed his election campaign. As a result, a Russian reaction, which can be forceful, should be expected not necessarily in Syria, but for instance in Donbass. n February 7, American aircrafts and were not present in this area was of course Oartillery bombed pro-Assad forces in true. Because it was not a regular army, but Deir al-Zor province, when the latter, with mercenaries trained by GRU sponsored by the approx half a thousand people, attacked state. It is not clearly known what they were the headquarters of the Kurdish-Arab SDF doing in that area. Much points to the fact, alliance forces and their American instructors. that the competition for oil and gas deposits According to different data, from 100 to 200 in Deir al-Zor is intensifying. Most of them people were killed. Many, if not most, of them, are controlled by Kurds supported by the are Russian. The statement of the Russian USA, but Assad and the Russian also crave Ministry of Defence that Russian soldiers for these treasures. It is worth mentioning, www.warsawinstitute.org 6 that in the same week when the massacre The massacre in Deir al-Zor causes severe of the mercenaries happened, the Russian domestic troubles for Putin.