Italy becomes more anti-immigrant and anti-EU By Michael Guterbock

Unemployment, population decline, changes in immigration, and world events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the wars in Syria and Libya strengthen Italian anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties and their chances for national power.

Significance: Domestic Italian issues (unemployment, rural emptying, population decline) and world events (COVID-19 pandemic, wars in Syria and Libya) will increase the power of anti-immigrant and anti- EU political parties in Italy. This trend heightens the chance of anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties winning elections and gaining ruling power in Italy to the detriment of European integration and open Italian markets.

Forecast: Immigration and anti-EU rhetoric will play an increasingly important role in upcoming regional and national elections in Italy, helping Matteo Salvini and his anti-immigrant League party and Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party win elections in regions that historically supported left-of- centre parties. The combination of domestic concerns and international events surrounding immigration issues will further allow the League, the Brothers of Italy, and the 5-Star Movement to gain national power in Italy, move Italian politics to the right, and harm Italy’s relations with the EU.

Subsidiary impacts: • Increased anti-immigrant sentiment will cause more attacks against immigrant populations in Italy and create harsher anti-immigrant policies at all levels of government • Italy will further pursue an “Italy first” foreign policy lead by Salvini, Meloni, and conservative elements of the 5-Star Movement • Italy will take steps to tighten its borders including against other EU member states • International companies in Italy will find it more difficult to find qualified workers even as Italian unemployment remains very high • More fighting in Syria’s Idlib province and Libya will push an increasing number of immigrants to Italy and other EU nations causing infighting between EU member states on how to deal with the crisis Immigration in Italy by the numbers: Total immigration to Italy was 515,000 in 2007 compared with 300,000 in 2017. Illegal immigration has also dropped in recent years. 181,000 migrants arrived in Italy by boat in 2016 compared to 11,500 in 2019. Salvini claims this drop is due to his tough policies. Despite the drop, Italy’s anti-immigrant parties continue to call for stronger border enforcement, more deportations of migrants already in Italy, and changes to asylum rules. Even though Salvini failed in his attempt in August to bring his League party to power, their anti-immigrant platform continues to make advances in regional elections. The election in Umbria in October 2019 of Donatella Tesei, backed by the League, is one example. More recently in Emilia-Romana, the League came close to unseating the center-left www.MaggioreRisk.com @MaggioreRisk +1 (314) 412-4161 regional government which has been in power for seven decades. Although the center-left won a majority, when you look at the distribution of votes across parties the League is only 2 percentage points behind the center-left. The League candidate lost by about 100,000 votes, of more than 2.2 million votes cast. Anti-immigrant policies were a main plank of their candidate’s platform.

Domestic concerns: Italy’s domestic population is in decline. In 2019, Italy’s overall population fell by 116,000 to 60.3 million. There was a steady rise in immigrant births helping to offset the declining domestic birth rate, but the decline remained. The loss of population can be seen most clearly in rural Italy, especially in the South, a phenomenon referred to as rural emptying. Between 2000 and 2018 rural Italy lost almost 800,000 residents. Young Italians move to larger cities or other countries leaving only older people in the villages. Some rural villages even resort to selling properties for one euro if the buyer promises to live in the town and maintain the property. The decline of Italians living in these areas, combined with immigrant arrivals cause some Italians to claim Italy is becoming less Italian. These trends cause anxiety among ordinary Italians who feel their way of life is threatened and must be protected from outside influence.

Anti-immigrant sentiment is felt among the youth as well older Italians, even in prosperous regions. One cause for this sentiment is high youth unemployment. At 29% even before the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy’s youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the Eurozone. Many Italians leave Italy to find work in other countries. In 2018 over 150,000 Italians left the country. Many of the unemployed blame immigrants and EU policies for the situation. They feel the centre-left parties have failed them so the League, the Brothers of Italy, and 5-Star Movement draw some of the youth vote. In recent pre-polling election data, the 5-Star Movement won the support of 31 percent of those aged 18 to 22 and 35 percent of those aged 23 to 28. With the 5-Star Movement dropping in recent polls, some of the youth support will go to the League and possibly to the Brothers of Italy. Even in the wealthy university town of Bologna you hear middle class Italians speak negatively of immigrants.

Where immigrants to Italy come from has also changed. In the years after Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU, many migrants to Italy came from those countries. In 2019, the largest number of official migrants came from Tunisia (2,654) followed by Pakistan and Ivory Coast with more than 1,100 each. Many Pakistanis and Tunisians in Italy own, run, and maintain vegetable stands and other small shops. The newly arrived immigrants find it more difficult to integrate than did previous waves because they are culturally, racially, and religiously more distinct from Italians. Bulgarians and Romanians tend to be Orthodox, more similar to Roman Catholic Italians, while Pakistanis and Tunisians tend to be Muslim.

According to one survey most Italians describe their country in negative terms. More than half of Italians believed that “weak” was an accurate description of Italy, followed by “angry” and “divided.” Population decline, globalization, high unemployment, and the changing demographics of immigrants will create more voters sympathetic to anti-immigrant views and policies.

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International events: In addition to domestic issues, international events help anti-immigrant parties. The COVID-19 outbreak means 60 million Italians only recently exited government-imposed lockdown, isolation, and travel bans. Italy has had more deaths than any country in Europe. Italy has more cases than any other country in Europe, and the outbreak was centered around the northern economic hubs of Lombardy, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna. The effects on the Italian economy have been extreme and are not yet fully felt. Additionally, Salvini, Meloni and other anti-immigrant anti-EU politicians have used the crisis to call for tighter borders and to blame immigrants and foreign tourists for bringing the virus to Italy. They also blame the EU for acting too slowly and ignoring Italy. Meloni quipped “When the coronavirus was just an Italian problem it didn’t interest anyone in the European Union. They only did things when the virus arrived in Germany.” Salvini for his part has called for a tough approach, such as closing borders and shuttering all businesses, and the ruling coalition followed through with similarly tough actions, which Salvini claims he precipitated. As the true scale of the damage to the Italian economy becomes clearer and unemployment increases, anti- immigrant parties will find more support for the view that Italy must protect itself from the outside world. The latest Politico poll shows the League polling at 26%, with the 5-Star Movement at 16%, and the Brothers of Italy at 14%. Other world crises also have an effect.

Continued fighting in Idlib province in Syria created 1 million new refugees, with many of them heading to Europe, as evidenced by recent migrant clashes on the Greco-Turkish border. Turkey now allows Syrian refugees to pass through its territory unimpeded. As cracks in Syria’s ruling elite begin to increase, it is likely there will be more unrest. Additionally, the conflict in Libya hardens as both sides procure arms and prepare for a long fight. Foreign powers (Turkey, Russia, Egypt) send arms, mercenaries, and troops into the country, and UN flights with humanitarian assistance have recently been blocked from entry. Any large uptick in fighting is sure to cause refugees and increase the number of migrants seeking to reach Italy by boat. Additionally, Libya is a transit point for migrants from other sub-Saharan African countries so more chaos there will impede any efforts by Libyan authorities to stop the migrant flow across the Mediterranean. Both Italy and the EU need to form coherent policies on these matters quickly and have so far failed to do so.

Italy is a unique bellwether for anti-immigrant and anti-EU feeling across Europe. Anti-immigrant and anti-EU politicians in Italy are adept at exploiting the local issues and world events currently driving “Italy First” feelings. Salvini and Meloni are the Italian politicians to watch in the coming months as domestic concerns and international events further allow their parties to gain national power, move Italian politics to the right, and severely harm Italy’s relations with the EU.

Michael Guterbock worked for a decade in disaster preparedness and global health for the US Government. Michael currently works as a country risk manager for Booz Allen Hamilton and is pursuing his Doctorate in International Affairs from Johns Hopkin University's School for Advanced International Studies.

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