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Northconnex Reaches Close

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Northconnex Reaches Close Toll Roads│Australia February 2, 2015 Transurban Group COMPANY NOTE TCL AU / TCL.AX Current A$9.30 Market Cap Avg Daily Turnover Free Float Target A$9.26 US$13,778m US$36.06m 100.0% Prev. Target A$9.21 A$17,729m A$43.07m 1,902 m shares Up/Downside -0.4% Conviction| | Notes from the Field NorthConnex reaches close Important: The recommendation has been made on a 12 month view and may not suit your TCL has announced financial close on NorthConnex with key project investment needs or timeframe. The basis it is details consistent with the in-principle agreement announced in May prepared on is summarised on the last page of 2013. With the funding package designed to provide cash flows while this report. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR ADVISER TO DISCUSS THIS GENERAL construction is ongoing, we see the project as positive for TCL’s RECOMMENDATION BEFORE ACTING ON IT. medium-term cash flow profile and longer-term growth profile. We had previously factored the Morgans Financial Limited (A.B.N. 49 010 669 Project highlights CA 726) AFSL235410 A Participant of ASX NorthConnex into our forecasts but This project is another solid deal for Group have made changes to assumptions TCL, in our view, and highlights the Sourced from CIMB Securities (Australia) reflecting the ancillary funding competitive advantage TCL has in Limited (“CSAL”) ABN 84 002 768 701 arrangement. While our short-term AFS Licence number 240 530 operating a network of assets across forecasts remain largely unchanged, Sydney. By harnessing multiple funding www.morgans.com.au changes to longer-term forecasts see sources across various assets, TCL has our valuation and DCF-based TP successfully negotiated the provision of TCL150202 increase to A$9.26 (from A$9.21), and a needed piece of infrastructure that we maintain our Add rating. may not have been commercial on its Company Visit Expert Opinion NorthConnex reaches close own merits. Combined with the Channel Check Customer Views additional M2 widening and ancillary ———————————————————————————————————————— TCL announced it has reached funding arrangement, TCL also has Show Style "View Doc Map" financial close on the NorthConnex achieved alignment of the majority of its project. Key details for the A$2.9bn project are consistent with earlier Sydney road concession lives and truck announcements, with construction to multipliers potentially enabling future commence imminently and expected discussions around issues such as to be completed by end-2019. TCL’s network pricing. share (A$1.05bn) will be financed Maintain Add rating initially through the corporate balance With yield and a pipeline of projects sheet over the five-year construction providing defensive growth, in a low period, though the M7/NorthConnex interest rate environment, we consortium has rights to issue an continue to see a positive outlook for additional A$1.5bn of debt across TCL and maintain our Add rating on both projects. The project will be an increased A$9.26 target price (DCF funded through a number of sources based) reflecting minor changes to including Government contributions our forecasts. Risks to our valuation (20%), existing revenue sources (ie and target price include truck multipliers) (30%), concession higher-than-expected bond rates, extensions (25%) and tolling of the lower-than-expected traffic growth link itself (25%). and M&A activity integration risks. Price Close Relative to S&P/ASX 200 (RHS) Financial Summary 9.90 137.0 9.40 130.6 Jun-13A Jun-14A Jun-15F Jun-16F Jun-17F 8.90 124.1 Revenue (A$m) 868 985 1,587 1,714 1,780 8.40 117.7 7.90 111.3 Operating EBITDA (A$m) 676 759 1,189 1,259 1,309 7.40 104.9 6.90 98.4 Net Profit (A$m) 171.7 282.0 196.8 179.6 194.7 6.40 92.0 25 Normalised EPS (A$) 0.12 0.16 0.10 0.09 0.10 20 15 Normalised EPS Growth 209% 39% (36%) (10%) 7% 10 FD Normalised P/E (x) 79.65 57.34 90.26 99.82 92.96 5 Vol m DPS (A$) 0.31 0.35 0.39 0.43 0.46 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Dividend Yield 3.33% 3.76% 4.19% 4.62% 4.95% Source: Bloomberg EV/EBITDA (x) 27.09 26.08 21.95 21.30 20.99 52-week share price range P/FCFE (x) 830.1 76.4 NA NA NA 9.30 Net Gearing 139% 66% 106% 122% 139% 6.75 9.30 P/BV (x) 4.05 3.05 2.34 2.50 2.67 ROE 4.99% 5.95% 2.93% 2.42% 2.78% 9.26 Current Target % Change In Normalised EPS Estimates (3.52%) (8.11%) (6.68%) Normalised EPS/consensus EPS (x) 0.59 0.45 0.40 SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REGARDING COMPANIES THAT ARE THE SUBJECT OF THIS REPORT AND AN EXPLANATION OF RECOMMENDATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT. Transurban Group│Australia February 2, 2015 PEER COMPARISON Research Coverage Bloomberg Code Market Recommendation Mkt Cap US$m Price Target Price Upside Macquarie Atlas Roads MQA AU AU ADD 1,173 2.95 3.44 16.5% Transurban Group TCL AU AU ADD 13,778 9.30 9.26 -0.4% Rolling P/BV (x) 12-month Forward Rolling FD P/E (x) 30.00 50 45 25.00 40 35 20.00 30 15.00 25 20 10.00 15 10 5.00 5 0.00 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Macquarie Atlas Roads Transurban Group Macquarie Atlas Roads Transurban Group Peer Aggregate: P/BV vs ROE Peer Aggregate: 12-mth Fwd FD P/E vs FD EPS Growth 5.00 6.0% 50 150% 4.50 4.2% 48 108% 4.00 2.4% 3.50 0.6% 46 67% 3.00 -1.2% 2.50 -3.0% 44 25% 2.00 -4.8% 42 -17% 1.50 -6.6% 1.00 -8.4% 40 -58% 0.50 -10.2% 0.00 -12.0% 38 -100% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (See Footnote) (rhs) 12-mth Fwd FD P/E (x) (See Footnote) (lhs) FD EPS Growth (See Footnote) (rhs) Valuation FD P/E (x) (See Footnote) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Macquarie Atlas Roads 28.09 14.11 12.66 1.82 1.59 1.40 NA NA NA Transurban Group 70.26 94.96 96.11 2.65 2.42 2.58 23.66 21.65 21.11 Growth and Returns FD EPS Growth (See Footnote) ROE (See Footnote) Dividend Yield Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Macquarie Atlas Roads NA 99.1% 11.4% 6.5% 12.1% 11.9% 4.47% 5.42% 6.38% Transurban Group -5.2% -26.0% -1.2% 4.1% 2.7% 2.6% 3.98% 4.40% 4.79% SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS Calculations are performed using EFA™ Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends. NPAT/EPS values for calculations and valuations are based on recurring and normalised values for GAAP and IFRS accounting standard companies respectively. 2 Transurban Group│Australia February 2, 2015 BY THE NUMBERS Share price info P/BV vs ROE 12-mth Fwd FD Normalised P/E vs FD Share px perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M 3.50 7.00% 160 Normalised EPS Growth 300% Relative 3.6 12.6 26.2 3.00 6.00% 140 250% Absolute 7.1 14.4 34.6 2.50 5.00% 120 200% 100 150% Major shareholders % held 2.00 4.00% 80 100% 1.50 3.00% Unisuper 9.5 60 50% 1.00 2.00% CBA 6.4 40 0% 0.50 1.00% 20 -50% Bank of New York Mellon 2.1 0.00 0.00% 0 -100% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (See Footnote) (rhs) 12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Normalised P/E (x) (lhs) Diluted Normalised EPS Growth (rhs) Profit & Loss (A$m) Jun-13A Jun-14A Jun-15F Jun-16F Jun-17F Growth driven by addition of QM and Total Net Revenues 939 1,045 1,671 1,802 1,872 CCT to the asset portfolio Gross Profit 939 1,045 1,671 1,802 1,872 Operating EBITDA 676 759 1,189 1,259 1,309 Depreciation And Amortisation -312 -330 -577 -615 -631 Operating EBIT 364 429 612 644 677 Financial Income/(Expense) -237 -345 -442 -457 -474 Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. -10 115 11 21 45 Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0 Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 117 199 181 208 249 Exceptional Items Pre-tax Profit 117 199 181 208 249 Taxation 57 45 41 47 56 Exceptional Income - post-tax 0 8 0 0 0 Profit After Tax 175 252 222 255 305 Minority Interests -3 30 -25 -75 -110 Preferred Dividends FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax Other Adjustments - post-tax Preference Dividends (Australia) Net Profit 172 282 197 180 195 Normalised Net Profit 175 244 222 255 305 Fully Diluted Normalised Profit 172 274 197 180 195 Cash Flow (A$m) Jun-13A Jun-14A Jun-15F Jun-16F Jun-17F EBITDA 676 759 1,189 1,259 1,309 Cash Flow from Invt.
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