IA 26th Annual Conference CZ International Association for Energy AEE EE Hosted by: Czech Association for Energy Economics NEW CHALLENGES FOR ENERGY DECISION MAKERS June 4-7, 2003 • Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni Prague, Czech Republic

Conference Extended an Extra Half Day: Over 275 Abstracts Received

SESSION THEMES AND TOPICS CONFERENCE INFORMATION • Program Detail Prospects for Global Energy Markets • Registration Information • Hotel Information Energy Market Design: Experiences and Issues • Sponsors Renewable Energy: Enhancing Long Term Security • Technical and Social Tours Europe and the U.S.: Rethinking Energy Security WHO SHOULD ATTEND Efficiency and Regulation of Electric & Gas Distribution Companies This conference will attract high profile speakers and delegates from around the Sustainable Development in Energy Context world. The opportunities to expand your knowledge within related energy fields and Ethics in Energy Companies to develop new contacts are vast. Below is a partial listing of who should attend this valu- and Energy Economics able conference: Oil & Gas: Frontier Issues • Attorneys & Accountants • Energy Company Executives & Managers Solar Energy • Energy Policy Analysts • Governmental Employees in Business Round Table: Energy/Resource Planning New Opportunities in the • Academics Specializing in Energy Policy & Analysis European Gas Sector • Electricity Pricing and Market Analysts • Energy Consultants CONFERENCE SPONSORS AND PARTNERS As of 5/22/03) • Energy Company Planning Economists • Energy Risk and Derivatives Specialists • Energy Forecasting Specialists • Oil and Natural Gas Executives CityPlan Ltd. • Energy Rate Executives • Electric and Utility Supervisors IA • Energy Environmental Analysts • Geologists and Engineers EE • Environmentalists Past Presidents’ • Energy Journalists Conference Fund In short, anyone with an active interest in the field of energy economics will not want to miss this meeting.

OFFICIAL CARRIER 26th Annual IAEE International Conference NEW CHALLENGES FOR ENERGY DECISION MAKERS

Dear Energy Professional,

The time for the 26th Annual IAEE Conference, June 4-7, 2003, is fast approaching. Our Call for Papers was met with an extraordinary response. We have received almost 270 abstracts, which is an all-time high. This reflects not only on the growing worldwide interest in the activities of our organization, but also the importance of the issues that the IAEE is concerned with, especially in today’s world. Energy economics issues are becoming key elements in the decision- making processes of world leaders; hence the subject of our conference, “New Challenges for Energy Decision Makers,” cannot be more timely. The number of concurrent sessions had to be expanded to accommodate the large number of papers submitted. At this point, I would like to thank all of those who devoted the time and effort to writing and submitting papers. The Committee reviewing papers appreciated the generally high quality of papers received. Although it was not possible to accommodate all papers into concurrent sessions, the poster sessions will be organized to maximize the number of papers to be pre- sented. Due to the overwhelming response, we have decided to extend the conference by 1/2 a day on Saturday, June 7. Whoever can survive this ordeal will be rewarded for their endurance and stamina at a “Survivor’s Party” at the oldest brewery and pub in Prague with hearty meals, schnapps, and an ocean of the finest beer in the world. The conference venue, Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni in Prague, is cooperating closely with IAEE Headquarters in making this conference take place in the most pleasant setting possible. For those who wish to stay at this hotel during the conference, the rates are from Euro 151 to 171 per room per night. The organizing committee, the IAEE Headquarters team, and council members are working hard to make you all happy. Please reward us with your presence at this conference. If you have any questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact either the organizing committee or IAEE Headquarters.

Jan Myslivec Ivan Benes General Conference Chair Program Chair

PROGRAM COMMITTEE

GENERAL CONFERENCE Edgardo Curcio Peter Kobos Jiri Schwarz CHAIR AIEE Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Liberlani Institut Peter Davies Hoesung Lee Johann Sereinig Jan Myslivec BP plc Council on Energy and Environment, Korea Verbund CityPlan spol.s.r.o. Robert Ebel Michael Lynch Paul Tempest PROGRAM CHAIR CSIS Independent Consultant BIEE Ivan Benes Georg Erdman Jacek Marecki Frits van Oostvoorn CityPlan spol.s.r.o. Technical University of Berlin Technical University of Gdansk Energy Research Foundation, Netherlands Marie Fagan Monika Mechurova COMMITTEE IHRDC CZAEE ARRANGEMENTS CHAIR Seyed Alavi Massimo Filippini Arild Nystad David Williams Institute for International Energy Studies, University of Lugano and ETH PetroManagement, AS IAEE Herman Franssen Tony Owen CONFERENCE Lars Bergman Petroleum Economics Ltd. University of New South Wales COMPANY Handelshogskolan i Stockholm Michelle Michot Foss Lubos Pavlas Fatih Birol University of Houston Prazska teplarenska Administrative Management Services, International Energy Agency Reinhard Haas Miroslav Pise Inc. Josef Bubenik Vienna University of Technology E-ON Czech Energy Agency Einar Hope Andre Plourde Leonard Coburn Norwegian School of Economics and University of Alberta US Department of Energy Business Administration Roberto Rios-Herran Jean-Philipp Cueille Tomas Huner Legal Advisor Institut Francais du Petrole Severomoravska energetika Virve Rouhiainen Espoon Sahko Oyj PROSPECTS FOR GLOBAL Ben Hobbs Wednesday, June 4 ENERGY MARKETS Professor The Johns Hopkins University IAEE COUNCIL MEETING 9:00 – 10:30 am Don Giovanni I, II, III (By Invitation) Jiri Schwarz President 8:00 am – 5:00 pm Herman Franssen, Presiding Liberal Institute, Czech Republic Donna Anna Director Petroleum Economics Ltd. IAEE COUNCIL LUNCH LUNCHEON Panel (By Invitation) 12:30 – 2:30 pm 12:00 noon – 1:00 pm Matthew R. Simmons Don Giovanni I, II, III & President Restaurant Teatro Restaurant Teatro Simmons & Company International REGISTRATION Michelle Foss, Presiding Herman Franssen Executive Director, Institute for 12:00 noon – 7:00 pm Director Energy Law & Enterprise Registration Desk – Don Giovanni Petroleum Economics Ltd. Conference Center – 2nd Floor University of Houston Fatih Birol Formation of the Eurasian Energy Market OPENING RECEPTION Chief Economist – Head, Economic and Energy Charter Process 6:00 – 8:00 pm Analysis Division Andrei Konoplianik International Energy Agency Klub Lávka Deputy Secretary General Address: Novotneho lávka 1, Prague 1 Fadhil Chalabi Energy Charter Secretariat Bus Transportation Will Be Provided Executive Director IAEE COUNCIL DINNER The Centre for Global Energy Studies (By Invitation) COFFEE BREAK CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 1 TO 5 8:00 – 10:00 pm 10:30 – 11:00 am 2:30 – 4:00 pm Parnas Restaurant Foyer 1 & Gallery 1 ENERGY PROSPECTS IN THE Thursday, June 5 DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS LONGER TERM 11:00 am – 12:30 pm 2 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORMS REGISTRATION A. EUROPE AND THE U.S.: RETHINK- 3 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE 7:00 am – 7:00 pm ING ENERGY SECURITY DEVELOPMENT: FROM THEORY Registration Desk – Don Giovanni TO PRACTICE nd Zerlina, Elvira, Anna Rooms Conference Center – 2 Floor 4 TAXATION ISSUES IN THE IRAN CONFERENCE PLANNING Robert Ebel, Presiding ENERGY SECTOR MEETING Director, Energy Programs 5 BUSINESS ROUND TABLE: NEW Center for Strategic & International Studies (By Invitation) OPPORTUNITIES IN THE Panel 7:30 – 8:30 am EUROPEAN GAS SECTOR Leporello Room Arnold B. Baker COFFEE BREAK Chief Economist IAEE AFFILIATE LEADERS MEETING 4:00 – 4:30 pm Sandia National Laboratories (By Invitation) Foyer 1 & Gallery Johannes Maters 7:30 – 8:30 am POSTER SESSION 1 Adviser, Directorate-General for Energy & Donna Anna Room Transport TECHNOLOGY ISSUES IN ENERGY WELCOME & INTRODUCTION European Commission PRODUCTION AND USE 8:30 – 8:40 am Shirley J. Neff 4:00 – 5:00 pm Don Giovanni I, II, III Senior Advisor Board Room 1 Michelle Foss Goldwyn International Strategies CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 6 TO 10 Executive Director, Institute for B. ENERGY MARKET DESIGN: 4:30 – 6:00 pm Energy Law & Enterprise EXPERIENCES AND ISSUES University of Houston 6 WORLD OIL MARKETS: THE BIG IAEE President Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms PICTURE 7 MARKET POWER VERSUS Jan Myslivec Einar Hope, Presiding COMPETITION IN LIBERALIZED General Manager Professor of Energy Economics ENERGY MARKETS CityPlan spol. S r.o. Norwegian School of Economics and Prague General Conference Chairman Business Administration 8 RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS KEYNOTE ADDRESS Panel 9 ENERGY CONSERVATION AND Lars Bergmann 8:40 – 9:00 am EFFICIENCY Professor Cyril Svoboda Stockholm School of Economics 10 ENERGY AND DEMOCRACY Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs David Newbery Government of the Czech Republic Director, Department of Applied Economics University of Cambridge RECEPTION Regulation and Measuring Cost Efficiency LUNCH 6:30 – 7:30 pm with Panel Data Models: Application to 12:30 – 2:30 pm Don Giovanni Conference Centre Electricity Distribution Utilities Don Giovanni I, II, III & Foyer Mehdi Farsi Restaurant Teatro DINNER Massimo Filippini Michelle Foss, Presiding Centre for Energy Policy & Economics and 7:30 – 10:30 pm Executive Director, Institute for University of Lugano Don Giovanni I, II, III & Energy Law & Enterprise Restaurant Teatro B. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN University of Houston ENERGY CONTEXT Solar Energy: Value and Cost on a Michelle Foss, Presiding Warming Planet Executive Director, Institute for Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms Energy Law & Enterprise Jeremy Leggett University of Houston Hoesung Lee, Presiding Chief Executive President Solar Century E.ON’s Investment Strategy in the Council on Energy and Environment Korea Czech Republic Panel DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS Michael Fehn 2:30 - 4:00 pm Chairman Sang-Gon Lee E.ON Czech Holding President A. ETHICS IN ENERGY COMPANIES Korea Energy Economics Institute, South Korea Zerlina, Elvira, Anna Rooms Ken Koyama Ivan Benes, Presiding Managing Director Director, Institute for Economics Friday, June 6 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Transportation & Energy CityPlan Ltd REGISTRATION Mohan Munasinghe Honorary Chief Energy Advisor, Mary-Ellen Boyle 7:00 am – 6:30 pm Assistant Professor of Management Registration Desk – Don Giovanni Government of Sri Lanka & Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development Clark University Conference Center – 2nd Floor Michael Grubb Peter A. Davies TAIWAN CONFERENCE PLANNING Visiting Professor, ICCET VP & Chief Economist MEETING Imperial College, London BP Plc. (By Invitation) Jyoti Prasad Painuly John Holding 7:30 – 9:00 am Senior Energy Planner Manager-Business Planning & Performance Leporello Room RISO National Laboratory Analysis ENERGY JOURNAL BOARD OF ChevronTexaco Nigeria Ltd. COFFEE BREAK EDITORS MEETING Samuel A. Van Vactor 10:30 – 11:00 am (By Invitation) President Foyer 1 & Gallery 7:30 – 9:00 am Economic Insight, Inc. POSTER SESSION 2 Board Room 9 - 3rd Floor B. RENEWABLE ENERGY: ENHANC- DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ING LONG TERM SECURITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 9:00 – 10:30 am Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms 10:30 – 11:30 am A. EFFICIENCY AND REGULATION Board Room 1 Tony Owen, Presiding OF ELECTRICITY AND GAS Professor DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES CONCURRENT SESSIONS (11 TO 15) The University of New South Wales 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM Nanotechnology for Energy Conversion, Zerlina, Elvira, Anna Rooms 11. CAPACITY ISSUES IN Storage and Utilization Massimo Filippini, Presiding ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL Robert J. Eagan Professor of Public Economics GAS MARKETS University of Lugano & ETH Zurich VP, Energy, Information & Infrastructure 12. NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN THE Surety Panel TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Sandia National Laboratories Benchmarking and Regulation in the The Economics of Wind Power Energy Industries: A General Overview 13. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE Poul Erik Morthorst Tooraj Jamasb WORLD Riso National Laboratory Department of Applied Economics 14. PRICE FORMATION AND DISCOV- Growiung Markets for Renewable Energy University of Cambridge ERY IN ENERGY MARKETS Benchmarking and Regulation: John Mogford Pitfalls and Issues in Electricity Regulation 15. LONG-TERM GAS SUPPLY Group VP, Renewables & Alternatives SECURITY FOR AN ENLARGED BP plc. Einar Hope EUROPE Hedging Our Bets: New Technologies in a Professor of Energy Economics World of Uncertainty Norwegian School of Economics & Business Administration Rick Sellers Head, Renewable Energy Unit International Energy Agency COFFEE BREAK COFFEE BREAK LUNCH 4:00 – 4:30 pm 10:30 – 11:00 am 12:30 – 1:30 pm Foyer 1 & Gallery Foyer 1 & Gallery Restaurant Teatro Network With Your IAEE Colleagues POSTER SESSION 3 POSTER SESSION 4 FOCUS ON ISSUES IN OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRICITY CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 26 TO 30 MARKETS MARKETS 1:30 – 3:00 pm 4:00 – 5:00 pm 10:30 – 11:30 am 26. APPROACHES TO ELECTRICITY Board Room 1 Board Room 1 AND NATURAL GAS REGULATION EUROPEAN AFFILIATE LEADERS DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS 27. EUROPE LOOKS EAST: THE EU MEETING 11:00 am – 12:30 pm AND ENERGY IN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA 4:30 – 6:00 pm A. LAW AND ENERGY ECONOMICS Board Room 9 – 3rd Floor 28. SOME CONSEQUENCES OF Don Giovanni I, II, III LIVING IN A CARBON CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 16 TO 20 CONSTRAINED WORLD Roberto Rios-Herran, Presiding 4:30 – 6:00 pm 29. THE PROFITABILITY OF ENERGY Legal Advisor 16. PRICE VOLATILITY IN ENERGY FIRMS: THEORY AND MARKETS: STRUCTURE AND Panel MEASUREMENT CONSEQUENCES Nils von Hinten-Reed 30. PRICING ISSUES IN ENERGY 17. THE STRUCTURE OF ENERGY Director MARKETS (DE)REGULATION CapAnalysis (Europe) COFFEE BREAK 18. ELECTRICITY IN THE LONG RUN: Roberto Rios-Herran 3:00 – 3:30 pm ALTERNATIVE GENERATION Legal Advisor Foyer 1 & Gallery TECHNOLOGIES Charles McPherson CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 31 TO 35 19. PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSES OF Senior Adviser, Oil, Gas & Chemicals ENERGY FIRMS World Bank Group 3:30 – 5:00 pm 20. MARKET-BASED APPROACHES Alfred John Boulos 31. INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL REGULA- International Advisor & Counsel MARKETS TION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR Boulos International 32. ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS IAEE GENERAL MEMBERSHIP B. OIL & GAS: FRONTIER ISSUES 33. MORE CONSEQUENCES OF MEETING LIVING IN A CARBON 6:00 – 6:30 pm Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms CONSTRAINED WORLD Leporello Room Jean-Philippe Cueille, Presiding 34. ISSUES AFFECTING MARKETS Professor FOR CRUDE OIL AND REFINED OFF-SITE RECEPTION/DINNER IFP PRODUCTS 7:00 – 10:00 pm and 35. BACK TO THE FUTURE?: THE Municipal House Vratislav Ludvik, Presiding SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY Address: Namesti republiky 5, Prague 1 Principal Bus Transportation Will Be Provided CLOSING REMARKS ONYX 5:00 – 5:20 pm Panel Don Giovanni I, II, III Saturday, June 7 Jean-Pierre Favennec Michelle Foss Directeur, Centre Econ. & Gestion Executive Director, Institute for Energy Law REGISTRATION IFP-ENSPM & Enterprise 7:00 am – 6:00 pm John R. Brodman University of Houston Registration Desk – Don Giovanni Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Jan Myslivec Conference Center – 2nd Floor Energy Policy General Manager US. Department of Energy CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 21 TO 25 CityPlan spol. S r.o. Ray Leonard 9:00 – 10:30 am FAREWELL / SURVIVAL PARTY Vice President, Exploration 21. THE SECURITY OF ENERGY YUKUS Oil Corporation 8:00 pm – 12:00 midnight SUPPLIES AND U Fleku INFRASTRUCTURE Adam Sieminski Kremencova 11, Prague 1 Director & Global Energy Strategist 22. ENERGY POLICY ISSUES Deutsche Bank AG 23. TECHNOLOGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY 24. ELECTRICITY MARKET LIBERALIZATION: THE EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE 25. SUPPLY-SIDE ISSUES IN CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS MARKETS CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 1 TO 5 The Role of Regions in the Framework of Sustainable 7 MARKET POWER VERSUS COMPETITION IN Energy Policies and Programs LIBERALIZED ENERGY MARKETS Thursday, June 5 Marcello Antinucci Donna Elvira Room 2:30 - 4:00 pm Paola Perini Bo Andersson, Presiding ECUBA srl, Bologna, Head of Analysis 1 ENERGY PROSPECTS IN THE LONGER Graninge Electricity Trading TERM Valentinas Klevas Liberalisation of Integrated Energy Markets and Market Zerlina Room Lithuanian Energy Institute Power Issues Edgardo Curcio, Presiding Brazilian Energy Prospects Seeking the Sustainable President Development Henrik Klinge Jacobsen AIEE Ildo Luis Sauer Peter Fristrup Risø National Laboratory U.S. National Energy Policy: Is the Gulf Widening? Luiz Claudio Ribeiro Galvão Jesper Munksgaard Daniel McGroarty Miguel Edgar Morales Udaeta André Luiz Veiga Gimenes Anders Larsen White House Writers Group AKF, Danish Institute of Local Government Studies Marvin J. Horowitz Cláudio Elias Carvalho The More Co-operation, The More Competition? Demand Research GEPEA Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil Long Term Scenarios for Energy Markets Fieke Rijkers Adrian Wals A.J.G. Manders 4 TAXATION ISSUES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR Leporello Room Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands M. Mulder Benjamin F. Hobbs CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Peter A. Davies, Presiding VP & Chief Economist The Johns Hopkins University Iraq: The Last Great Oil Prize: An Oil Industry BP plc. The Question of Market Power In Restructured Perspective Taxation of Oil Companies Having Outside Options Electricity Markets Mamdouh G. Salameh Trond Olsen Sophie Meritet Director C.G.E.M.P. Oil Market Consultancy Service Norwegian School of Economics & Bus. Admin. Petter Osmundsen Université Paris IX – Dauphine Development of World Energy Prices Model, WEPM Stavanger University College Competition and Prices on a Multinational Market for Yuko Hoshino A Conflict of Interests in Electricity Taxation? Electricity: The Case of the Nordic Countries Yutaka Nagata Bente Halvorsen Eirik S. Amundsen Norihisa Sakurai University of Bergen Socio-Economic Research Center Runa Nesbakken Statistics Norway Lars Bergman Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry Stockholm School of Economics (CRIEPI) The Impact of Oil Taxation on Fields’ Profitability in the UK North Sea – A Comparison with Five International Combining Transmission and Energy Markets Mitigates 2 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORMS Representative Regimes Market Power Donna Elvira Room Karsten Neuhoff Jose Gonzalez Santalo, Presiding Carole Nakhle David Hawdon Faculty of Economics and Politics Director de Sistemas Mecanicos University of Cambridge Institute de Investigaciones Elect. University of Surrey Downstream Energy Taxation: Where Does Oil Stand? 8 RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES: ISSUES Development of a Competitive Electricity Market in Nadir Guerer AND PROSPECTS Indonesia Assistant to the Director of Research Division Donna Anna Room Andreas Korn OPEC Morgan Bazilian, Presiding Peter Pintz Department Head - Sustainable Energy Services Fichtner GmbH & Co. 5 BUSINESS ROUND TABLE: NEW OPPORTU- Sustainable Energy Ireland NITIES IN THE EUROPEAN GAS SECTOR Wind Energy – Present Status – Outlook – Energy System Past, Present and Future of the Latin-American Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms Analysis Electricity Markets Tor Vesterhus, Presiding Isaac Dyner R. CEO H.-J. Wagner Universidad Nacional de Colombia GasOracle AS D. Guerzenich Santiago Arango Conference delegates are invited to join an open round R. Tryfonidou Bergen University table discussion on new business opportunities within Energy Systems and Economics Erik Larsen the European gas sector in light of both the liberaliza- University of Bochum, Germany Case Business School tion process and the European enlargement towards Rent of Hydropower Generation in Switzerland Future of the Lithuanian District Heating Sector: the east. Silvia Banfi Number of CHP’s or Decentralisation? Adrian Müller Ramunas Gatautis CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 6 TO 10 Federal Institute of Technology, WEC Lithuanian Energy Institute Thursday, June 5 Massimo Filippini University of Lugano The Feasibility of European Electric Reforms, A New- 4:30 – 6:00 pm Institutional Economics Evaluation Prospects and Potential for Cost Reductions in PV Yannick Perez 6 WORLD OIL MARKETS: THE BIG PICTURE Systems ATOM Zerlina Room Daniele Poponi Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne John Holding, Presiding Department of Economics Manager-Business Planning & Performance Analysis University of Bari, Italy 3 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE ChevronTexaco Nigeria Ltd. DEVELOPMENT: FROM THEORY TO Electric Power Leveler by Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell PRACTICE The World Oil Economy 30 Years After the First Oil Co-generation System and its Economic Implication Donna Anna Room Price Shock Yutaka Yoneda Reinhard Haas, Presiding Ferdinand E. Banks Shigeru Yasukawa Energy Economics Group Professor Electrical Engineering & Electronics Vienna University of Technology Uppsala University Kanazawa Institute of Technology Geopolitics and the Oil Market: Post Cold War Era The Energy Economic Benefit of Integrated Development 9 ENERGY CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY Planning Policies Mohammad Sadegh Memarian Leporello Room Elizabeth Marshall National Iranian Oil Company Fridtjof Unander, Presiding Area Development Manager Regionalization of the Global Oil and the Nation State Senior Analyst Highland Council, Scotland Alexandre Babak Hedjazi International Energy Agency The Energy Sector in the Context of Sustainable Regional & International Development A Consistent Approach to the Computation of an End- Development – A Review of Concepts UCLA use Energy Efficiency Indicator: A Demonstration of Regina Eich Oil Companies and Energy Security in China Industrial Sector Time-series Data in Taiwan Jurgen-Friedrich Hake Adam Louis Shrier Yunchang Jeffery Bor Research Centre Juelich, Germany Strategic Advisor Cheng-Shu Lin Global Development Opportunities, LLC Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Demand Curves for Electricity Efficiency in OECD Gas-to-Liquid Technologies: Recent Advances, Price Discovery in Gas Market, A Case of UK Countries Economics, Prospects Sharon Lin Aviel Verbruggen Isaac Rahmim Michael Tamvakis Professor Energy Consulting Practice CASS Business School, London University of Antwerp E-MetaVenture, Inc. 15 LONG-TERM GAS SUPPLY SECURITY FOR Consequences of the U.S. Commercial Sector Energy Conventional Versus Innovative Technologies in the AN ENLARGED EUROPE Efficiency Regime Transportation Sector: External Costs and Benefits Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms Marvin J. Horowitz Amy Myers Jaffe Frits van Oostvoorn, Presiding President Kenneth B. Medlock III Manager, European Studies Demand Research Ronald Soligo Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands Cost-Benefit Analysis on Energy Conservation Measures Rice University Future Supply in a Liberalized European Gas Market – in Energy-Intensive Industries of Taiwan An Optimum Fuel Consumption Model for the Transport The Emergence of New Suppliers Chi-Yuan Liang of Cargos by Road Vehicles Eirik Lund Sagen Research Fellow, The Institute of Economics Mahmoud Saffarzadeh Senior Executive Officer Academia Sinica Tarbiat Modares University Statistics Norway Research Department 10 ENERGY AND DEMOCRACY Abdlreza Rezaee-Arjroody Long Term Gas Supply for Filling the “Supply Gap” in Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms Road & Transportation Research & Training Center Europe Against Affordable Prices Participants 13 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP- Frits van Oostvoorn Michelle Foss MENT AROUND THE WORLD Maroeska Boots University of Houston Leporello Room Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands Kevin Warr Franz Meister, Presiding The Effect of Liberalisation of Gas Markets on Trade, U.S. Agency for International Development Staff Member Contracting and Supply Sector James B. Sullivan Umweltbundesamt/Federal Environment Agency Sandro Furlan U.S. Agency for International Development California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard: Can It Coordinator, Energy & Environment Department Recharge a Failed Effort? Eni Corporate University This session will be facilitated discussion on issues asso- Asbjorn Moseidjord The Supply of Natural Gas From Russia: An ciated with international technical and development as- ChevronTexaco Professor of Energy & Resources Intertemporal Market Analysis sistance using country case studies. IAEE delegates with Saint Mary’s College of California Jeroen de Joode research and experience in this arena are invited to par- Renewable Energy in Iran: Challenges and Opportuni- CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis ticipate. ties for Sustainable Development CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 16 TO 20 CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 11 TO 15 Madjid Abbaspour Sharif University of Technology Friday, June 6 Friday, June 6 Head of Iranian Association for Energy Economics 4:30 - 6:00 pm 11:00 am – 12:30 pm Farideh Atabi 16 PRICE VOLATILLITY IN ENERGY MAR- 11 CAPACITY ISSUES IN ELECTRICITY AND Iranian Association for Energy Economics KETS: STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENCES NATURAL GAS MARKETS Sustainable Local Economy in Communities in Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms Zerlina Room Michoacan Virve Rouhiainen, Presiding Kjell Sunnivag, Presiding Juan Jose Jardón Urrieta Risk Manager Research Coordinator Expoon Sahko Oyi SNF Professor of Finance Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo Exploring the Impact of Price Volatility on Energy Optimisation Model for Rationing Efficient Allocation of Markets Capacity in a Natural Gas Transportation Network Sustainable Development Problems of Latvian Energy Sector Mark Finley Hans Jorgen Dahl K. Mikelsons Senior Economist Gassco AS BP America Inc Asgeir Tomasgard Latvian Power Company “Latvenergo” Norwegian University of Science & Technology V. Zebergs Does the Black-Scholes Formula Work for Electricity Frode Rømo N. Zeltins Markets? A Nonparametric Approach SINTEF Industrial Management Latvian Academy of Science Erik Hjalmarsson Electric Transmission and Rents in Europe 14 PRICE FORMATION AND DISCOVERY IN Department of Economics Yale University Anthony Baeza ENERGY MARKETS Economics Department Donna Anna Room Coping with Oil Price Volatility Université Paris IX – Dauphine Paul Horsnell, Presiding Michael C. Lynch Head of Energy Research Transmission Congestion Risks Energy Consultant JP Morgan plc MIT Tarjei Kristiansen Regulation, Competition and Price Formation in the UK Oil Price Volatility and OPEC Compliance: A Challenge Department of Electrical Power Engineering Gas Industry Norwegian University of Science and Technology for OPEC Policy Makers Philip Wright Mandatory Capacity Margins – Good Idea or Not? Mohammad Mazraati Ian Rutledge Institute for International Energy Studies, Iran Robert L. Borlick School of Management K. Abbasi Senior Advisor University of Sheffield Shayegan Energy and Economy Consultants Henwood Energy Services Investment Costs and Equilibrium Energy Prices in 17 THE STRUCTURE OF ENERGY The Role of Excess Capacities for Effective Competition Europe in Electricity Markets (DE)REGULATION Geoff Frewer Donna Elvira Room Reinhard Haas Economist Shirley J. Neff, Presiding Energy Economics Group European Investment Bank Senior Advisor Vienna University of Technology El-Gas Deregulation – Price Convergence? Goldwyn International Strategies 12 NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN THE TRANSPOR- Frank Asche Restructuring the Regulatory Framework in Developing TATION SECTOR Petter Osmundsen Countries Donna Elvira Room Ragnar Tveteras Garry E. Vollans Rick Sellers, Presiding Stavanger University College Senior Consultant Head, Renewable Energy Unit Atle Guttormsen FMP Flaman Management Partners Ltd. International Energy Agency Agricultural University of Norway Optimal Power Reform Design: Experience from Analysis of the Impact of Technological Innovation to A VAR Analysis of the Energy Prices in a Liberalization Reduce CO Emission for Global Environment 2 Liberalised Market Luciano Losekann Toshihiko Nakata Paula Ferreira Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Tetsuya Togasaki Madalena Araújo Joanne Evans Shuichi Ashina University of Minho , Portugal University of Hull Tohoku University Isabel Soares University of Porto, Portugal Weighing Ways of Keeping the Energy Balance Benchmarking for Government Owned Utilities in Building Better Energy Markets: What Next? Hamilcar Knops Emerging Markets Boyko Nitzov International Institute of Energy Law Shakeb Afsah Senior Investment Expert Leiden University Mary C. Webster The Energy Charter Secretariat Efficiency and Equity in a Deregulated Electricity International Resources Group Interactions Between the Green Certificate and Electric Market 20 MARKET-BASED APPROACHES TO Power Markets in a Non-Competitive Government Youngho Chang ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION IN THE Regulated Environment Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics ENERGY SECTOR E. Ariel Bergmann National University of Singapore Zerlina Room Economics Department Regulatory Exigencies of Electricity Reform in Australia Eliska Kotikova, Presiding University of Glasgow Project Manager Deepak Sharma 23 TECHNOLOGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY CityPlan Ltd. Associate Professor Donna Anna Room University of Technology, Sydney Inefficiency and Price Distortion in the International Miroslav Pise, Presiding Emissions Trading Market 18 ELECTRICITY IN THE LONG RUN: Managing Director ALTERNATIVE GENERATON TECHNOLO- Akira Maeda EON Bohemia S.r.o. GIES Assistant Professor Financing Micro Generation: Some Options for the Donna Anna Room Keio University Future John W. Jimison, Presiding Market Based Environmental Regulation in the Jim Watson Executive Director Restructured Australian Electricity Industry Research Fellow U.S. Combined Heat & Power Association Iain F. MacGill University of Sussex Study on the Economic Aspects and Policy Options of Karel Nolles Increasing the Eco-Efficiency and Economy of an Clean Coal Technologies Hugh Outhred Energy System: A Multiobjective Optimization Approach The University of New South Wales Toshihiko Nakata Carlos E. Escobar-Toledo Ryo Kinugasa Assessing Voluntary Commitments: Professor, Faculty of Chemistry Management of Science and Technology Monitoring is Not Enough! National University of Mexico Tohoku University Manuel Frondel Steps Towards a 2000 Watt/cap Society – A White Paper Christoph Böhringer CO2 Emission Impacts of Large Penetration of on Research and Development of Energy-efficient Distributed Generation Systems in Japan ZEW – Centre for European Economic Research Technologies and Entrepreneurial Innovations Hiroshi Asano The Potential for Creating Pollution Credits in a U.S. Eberhard Jochem Masahito Takahashi Statewide “Public Benefits” Energy Efficiency Program CEPE, ETH Zürich Ei-ichi Imamura David Sumi D. Favrat Senior Research Scientist Karl Hausker EPFL Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry PA Consulting Group K. Hungerbühler (CRIEPI) Pat Meier Ph. Rudolph v. Rohr Socio-Economic Evaluation of Long Term Energy State of Wisconsin D. Spreng Options: The Case of Fusion CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 21 TO 25 ETHZ GianCarlo Tosato A. Wokaun Socio-Economic Studies Saturday, June 7 PSI European Fusion Development Agreement M. Zimmermann 9:00 - 10:30 am EMPA Gas Fired Power Plant Investments with CO Capture 2 21 THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES AND Renewable Energy Financing; What Can We Learn From Stein-Erik Fleten INFRASTRUCTURE Thomas Dobbe Experience? Zerlina Room Jyoti Prasad Painuly Sjur Sigmo Carlo Andrea Bollino, Presiding Norwegian University of Science & Technology Riso National Laboratory Universita Degli Studi di Perugia Norbert Wohlgemuth Technology Adoption and Sustainable Development in How Secure is Supply in a Liberalised European University of Klagenfurt Liberalised Electricity Markets: A Panel Data Study for Electricity Market? Six OECD Countries 24 ELECTRICITY MARKET LIBERALIZATION: Mark Lijesen Reinhard Madlener THE EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE Arie ten Cate Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms CEPE, ETH-Zentrum WEC C CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Reza Fathollahzadeh Georg Erdmann, Presiding Deepak Sharma Energy Security and Regional Cooperation in Asia Full Professor University of Technology, Sydney Ken Koyama TU Berlin General Manager, Energy Strategy Department Competition in the Baltic Electricity Markets 19 PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSES OF ENERGY Institute of Energy Economics, Japan FIRMS Arvydas Galinis Leporello Room Improving Energy Infrastructure Security: Costs and Lithuanian Energy Institute Lubos Pavlas, Presiding Consequences Jens Hauch Chairman & CEO Alex Farrell Thomas Engberg Pedersen Prazska Teplarenska A.S. University of California Berkeley COWI A/S Risk Ranking and Selection of Licensed Subjects Hisham Zerriffi Hans Ravn Carnegie Mellon University Elkraft System a.m.b.a. Martin Benes Oldrich Starý Held Hostage: Arms and Infrastructure Liberalisation of the European Electricity Markets – International Electricity Trade in Europe from a German Czech Technical University in Prague Samuel A. Van Vactor Perspective Organizational Forms, Competences and Industrial President Clemens Cremer Strategies: The Relations Between Manufacturers and Economic Insight, Inc.. Harald Bradke Operators in the European Wind Energy Sector 22 ENERGY POLICY ISSUES Fraunhofer Institute Systems & Innovation Research Pierre Taillant Donna Elvira Room CREDEN-LASER Leonard L. Coburn, Presiding Integrating Intermittent Energy Sources in Liberalized Electricity Markets: From Technical Costs to Economic University of Montpellier I Director, Russian & Eurasian Affairs Penalties as a Result of Market Rules Multi-Sector Comparison of Productive Efficiency in U.S. Department of Energy Philippe Menanteau Time Series: An Application of Data Envelopment The New Italian Energy Policy: A Forecast by the Analysis to Japanese Electric Power Utilities in the CEPRIG Model Dominique Finon Marie-Laure Lamy 1990s Enzo Di Giulio IEPE/CNRS Stefania Migliavacca Mika K. Goto University of Grenoble, France Hiroko Takahashi Eni Corporate University The Liberalization of the European Electricity Socio-Economic Research Center Alessandro Vaglio Market(s): An Unstrurctured Restructuring Process Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry University of Bergamo (CRIEPI) Structural Change in Energy Use and Its Implications on Rudi Hakvoort The Effectiveness of Energy Policy: The Case of Taiwan Francois Boisseleau Delft University of Technology Shih-Mo Lin Su-Pin Liu Chung Yuan Christian University, Taiwan 25 SUPPLY-SIDE ISSUES IN CRUDE OIL AND EU Energy Policy and Future European Energy 30 PRICING ISSUES IN ENERGY MARKETS NATURAL GAS MARKETS Markets: Consequences for the Central and East Leporello Room Leporello Room European States G. Campbell Watkins, Presiding Ronald Soligo, Presiding Margarita M. Balmaceda Professor Professor of Economics Davis Center for Russian & Eurasian Studies University of Aberdeen Rice University Harvard University Effective or Ineffective?: Examination of the Saudi Resource Scarcity: Evidence from Values of Oil and Uzbekistan – An Expanding and Capital-Hungry Pricing Policy in the Atlantic Europe Between 1988 and Natural Gas Reserves Economy: Specific Inter-Related Opportunities in 2001 M.A. Adelman Energy, IT and Agriculture Kazushi Uemura Massachusetts Institute of Technology Malika Saidkhodjaeva Professor of Economics G.C. Watkins Associate Professor Sophia University University of Aberdeen Tashkent State Technical University Evaluating the Effects of Crossholdings and Information Optimising Oil and Gas Recovery from a Mature Building the Euro-Asian Energy Bridge on Wholesale Energy Prices Province: The Case of the UKCS Paul Tempest Augusto Rupérez Micola Alex Kemp Executive Director Derek W. Bunn Linda Stephen Windsor Energy Group London Business School Sola Kasim Asian Premium of Crude Oil and Importance on University of Aberdeen 28 SOME CONSEQUENCES OF LIVING IN A CARBON-CONSTRAINED WORLD Preparation of Oil Market in Northeast Asia Optimization of Gas Supply in Iran (Projection vs. Facts) Donna Anna Room Yoshiki Ogawa Shahla Khaleghi Steffen Sacharowitz, Presiding General Manager, 2nd Research Dept. Energy Economist TU Berlin Institute of Energy Economics, Japan National Iranian Gas Company Will European Industry Escape the Kyoto Protocol? Energy Price Distortions in Iran World Oil Production Peak – A Supply-Side Perspective A.J.G. Manders Alimorad Sharifi Roger Bentley Johannes Bollen Isfahan University The University of Reading Henri de Groot Mehdi Sadeghi Michael R. Smith Paul Tang Imam Sadiq University EnergyFiles Limited Herman Vollebergh Optimal Pricing of Petroleum With Budget Constraint CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 26 TO 30 Cees Withagen and Externality CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Chung-Huang Huang Saturday, June 7 The Kyoto Protocol and the Japanese Power Companies National Tsing Hua University 1:30 – 3:00 pm Hiroyuki Okamoto Hsing-Hua Lin Professor, College of International Relations Ching-Yun Institute of Technology 26 APPROACHES TO ELECTRICITY AND Nihon University Han-Pang Su NATURAL GAS REGULATION Allocation of Refinery CO Emissions to Oil Finished National Taiwan University Zerlina Room 2 Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, Presiding Products: A New Approach CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 31 TO 35 President Denis Babusiaux Menlo Energy Economics Axel Pierru Saturday, June 7 Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing Should Be Mandated As Institut Français du Pétrole 3:30 – 5:00 pm Nuclear Power Position in Future Energy Policy, Japan A Public Good 31 INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY MARKETS – Roles of Government and Electric Power Companies in Jeffrey M. Jakubiak Zerlina Room Associate Attorney Private Sector Hamilcar Knops, Presiding Troutman Sanders LLP Taizo Hayashi International Institute of Energy Law Deregulation and Monopoly Profits in New Zealand’s Faculty of Social and Environmental Studies Leiden University Fukuoka Institute of Technology Gas and Electricity Sectors New Dynamics of Forecasting Load and Prices: Geoff Bertram 29 THE PROFITABILITY OF ENERGY FIRMS: Assessing Value of Assets & Future Contracts in School of Economics & Finance THEORY AND MEASUREMENT Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Donna Elvira Room Fereidoon P. Sioshansi Dutch Price and Quality Regulation System Peter K. Nance, Presiding President Principal Virendra Ajodhia Menlo Energy Economics Teknecon Energy Risk Advisors LLC Delft University of Technology The Decision of Investment and its Funding in an Bart Franken Integration or Atomisation? Undergoing Institutional Environment: The Case of a KEMA Consulting Robert Arnott Nuclear Equipment Carel van der Lippe Research Fellow Marie-Laure Guillerminet Dutch Energy Regulator Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Department of Economics Establishment of Regulatory Price Controls and Valuation of International Integrated Oil Companies: University of Montpellier I Benchmarking Electricity Networks in the Republic of The Use of Financial and Operational Indicators Changing Investment Incentives in a Deregulated Ole Gjolberg European Electricity Market: The Case of Increasing Irena Glavic Agricultural University of Norway Transmission Capacity Between Sweden and Germany Majda Paripovic Thore Johnsen Anna Krook-Riekkola Bojan Kuzmic Norwegian School of Economics & Bus. Admin. Erik O. Ahlgren Energy Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Klaus Mohn Ingrid Nystrom Konstantin Petrov Statoil ASA Chalmers University of Technology Petter Osmundsen Gian Carlo Scarsi The Investment Paradox in Competitive Electricity Stavanger University College KEMA Consulting Markets – Problem Formulation, Empirical Evidence Stefan Ivanjko Current Performances of the Firm and Financial and Solution Strategies EIMV Markets’ Evaluations: Does the Ownership Matter in Christoph Weber the Electricity Sector? 27 EUROPE LOOKS EAST: THE EU AND Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of ENERGY IN EASTERN EUROPE AND Augusto Ninni Energy (IER) CENTRAL ASIA Elisabetta Linares University of Stuttgart IEFE Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms The Investment Effectiveness Evaluation in Power Bocconi University, Italy Robert E. Borgstrom, Presiding Engineering Under Market Conditions Independent Consultant Liberalization of Energy Markets and Company Waldemar Kamrat Strategies: A Diagnosis on the European Gas Market East European Natural Gas Markets: Opening to Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering Competition Cécile Bazart Gdansk University of Technology Margarita Pirovska C.R.E.D.E.N. Graduate Student Université Montpellier 1 Université Paris IX – Dauphine 32 ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS): A Sequential Oil Price Shock: A Non-linear Approach Donna Elvira Room Decision Approach to the Threat of Abrupt Climate Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez Huei-Chu Liao, Presiding Change Dpto. Fundamentos del Análisis Económico Associate Professor Peter Read Universidad de Alicante, Spain Tam Kang University Peter Read Consultancy Ltd. The Geographical Oil Consumption-Production Fuel- Switching Capability Jonathan Lermit Mismatch: Its Growth and Possible Growing Pains Alain Bousquet Energy Consultant Bernard A. Gelb Norbert Ladoux Perspectives for the Diffusion of Natural Gas, Renewable Specialist in Industry Economics Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse Energies and Energy Efficiency in a CO2 Mitigation Congressional Research Service The Heat Is On: The Changing Role of Weather on Framework: The Case of Switzerland up to 2010 35 BACK TO THE FUTURE?: THE SECURITY OF Residential Energy Demand Martin Jakob ENERGY SUPPLY David L. Ryan Reinhard Madlener Don Ottavio + Masetto Rooms André Plourde CEPE Denis Babusiaux, Presiding University of Alberta ETH-Zentrum WEC C Directeur Scientifique en Economie The Future of North-Western Mediterranean Natural Gas Kyoto and the Electricity Production in US and Canada Institut Français du Pétrole Demand – Econometric Evidence Jean-Thomas Bernard Security of Energy Supply: Historical Evidence and Hadi Hallouche Frédéric Clavet Future Prospects Michael Tamvakis Jean-Cléophas Ondo Machiel Mulder CASS Business School Université Laval CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis City University, London 34 ISSUES AFFECTING MARKETS FOR CRUDE Aad Correlje Decomposition of Manufacturing Energy Use in OECD OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS Delft University of Technology Countries: How Do Recent Developments Compare to Leporello Room Could Strategic Gas Reserves Help EU Security-of- Historical Long-Term Trends? Musa M. Essayyad, Presiding Supply? Fridtjof Unander Department of Finance & Economics Ole Gunnar Austvik Senior Analyst/Principal Administrator King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals Economist International Energy Agency Too Many Leasing Decisions in the Oil Industry? Lillehammer University College 33 MORE CONSEQUENCES OF LIVING IN A Magne Emhjellen The European Union’s Security of Energy Supply and CARBON-CONSTRAINED WORLD Petoro AS Russian Gas Donna Anna Room Kjell Løvas James Chalker Robert Arnott, Presiding Statoil Amsterdam Law School Research Fellow The Impact of Oil Industry Liberalization on the Universiteit van Amsterdam Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Efficiency of Petroleum Fuels Supply for the Domestic The EvrAzEs and Eurasia’s Energy Security Market in Indonesia Strategic Energy Pricing and Carbon Taxing under Gregory Gleason Uncertainty about Global Warming Dr. Kurtubi Professor of Political Science & Public Admin. Franz Wirl Senior Staff to Executive VP Development University of New Mexico Professor PERTAMINA, Indonesia University of Vienna POSTER SESSION - 1 Board No. 3 POSTER SESSION - 4 DEA Efficiency in the Finnish District Heating Saturday, June 7 Thursday, June 5 Companies 4:00 – 5:00 pm Päivi Peltola 10:30 - 11:30 am Board Room 1 Department of Business and Economics Board Room 1 TECHNOLOGY ISSUES IN ENERGY University of Joensuu DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND USE Board No. 4 MARKETS Board No. 1 The 96/61 Directive (IPPC) and the Role of Best Board No. 1 The Empirical Assessment of Technology Differences: Available Techniques in the Energy Field Competition with Power: Experiences of a Local Utility Comparing the Comparable Maria Proto Company with Five Years of Market Liberalisation in Manuel Frondel Stefania Supino Germany ZEW – Centre for European Economic Research Ornella Malandrino Dirk Buennagel Christoph M. Schmidt University of Salerno, Italy Assistant to the Board of Directors Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institute fur Wirtschaftsforschung Board No. 5 Stadtwerke Duesseldorft AG Board No. 2 Changes of Energy Efficiency in Countries in Transition Board No. 2 Energy Densities: Evolutionary Aspects and Policy and Their Assessment in Forecasting Energy Demand Potential for Market Power in the German Electricity Implications Vaclovas Miskinis Market? Bruno Fritsch Jurgis Vilemas Christian Hewicker Professor Emeritus Lithuanian Energy Institute Konstantin Petrov Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich Board No. 6 KEMA Consulting Board No. 3 Fuel Poverty in Europe: A Cross-Country Analysis Board No. 3 Design for the Optimum Energy System Having Small Using A New Composite Measurement Development of Model for the Simulation of Marginal Nuclear Power in Japan John D. Healy Losses in the Transmission Grid Toshihiko Nakata Urban Institute of Ireland Mindaugas Krakauskas Shuichi Ashina University College Dublin Ausra Pazeraite Management of Science and Technology Lithuanian Energy Institute Tohoku University Board No. 4 Board No. 4 POSTER SESSION - 3 Development of Electricity Market in and the Strategy for Nuclear Fuel Cycle in an Uncertain Baltics Situation: A Model Analysis Focusing on the Uncer- Friday, June 6 Vidmantas Jankauskas tainty about Technological Progress 4:00 – 5:00 pm Chairman Takayuki Takeshita Board Room 1 National Control Commission for Prices and Energy, Lithuania Kenji Yamaji FOCUS ON ISSUES IN OIL AND GAS MARKETS Yasumasa Fujii Board No. 5 Board No. 1 Department of Advanced Energy The Question of Generation Adequacy in Liberalized The University of Tokyo Bertrand Competition with Entry and Asymmetric Electricity Markets Information Board No. 5 Laurens de Vries Entry Mechanisms of Energy Actors in the Telecommuni- Corinne Chaton Rudi Hakvoort cations Industry Laurent David Delft University of Technology Gaz de France Carole Le Henaff CGEMP Board No. 2 Université Paris IX – Dauphine Corporate Governance and Performance: Case of Oil Board No. 6 Companies Energy Trade and Grid in the Northeast Asia: Rym Hachana System for the Better Decision Making PhD Student in Economics Université Paris IX - Dauphine Fumio Arakawa Executive Senior Engineer Board No. 3 Global Engineering Institute, Inc. The Transformation of European Energy Markets and Energy Taxation Incentives Frank Asche Odd Bjarte Nilsen POSTER SESSION - 2 Petter Osmundsen Friday, June 6 Ragnar Tveteras Stavanger University College 10:30 – 11:30 am Board No. 4 Board Room 1 An Alternative Government Oil Stockpile Strategy: The ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABLE Empirical Study in Taiwan DEVELOPMENT Huei-Chu Liao Board No. 1 Economics Department Increase in Environmental Restrictions as a Tamkang University Leverage to GTL Projects Board No. 5 Edmar Luiz Fagundes de Almeida Mergers in Energy Markets: The Case of E.ON-Ruhrgas Professor, Institute of Economics Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Kai Hueschelrath Institute for Industrial Organization, Germany Board No. 2 Kai Rommel

Assessment of Market Systems for CO2 Emissions Technical University Cottbus, Germany Trading as Environmental Policy Options, with Special Board No. 6 Emphasis on Evaluation of Intertemporal Trading Regulation by Duopoly Under Political Constraints Kazuya Fujime Managing Director Jose Eduardo Mendoza Contreras The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Neil Rickman University of Surrey OPENING RECEPTION — CLUB LAVKA The Welcome Reception will be held at Club Lavka from 6 to 8pm on Wednesday, June 4. Situated next to the Charles Bridge, this restaurant has unmatched views of Prague Castle and the Charles Bridge. Lavka’s central location in the Old Town of Prague will enable everybody to visit any of hundreds of other refreshment places, watering holes, restaurants, etc. where socializing and networking never stops. Both indoor and outdoor seating areas are available, depending on the weather. Food, wine, and beer will be served, and your coming will guarantee excellent company.

PRAGUE GALA DINNER The French Restaurant in the Municipal House is often rated as one of the most beautiful restaurants in the world. This restaurant will serve as the backdrop for the Prague conference Gala Dinner. The Municipal House was built on the former King Wenceslas’ IV court, opening in 1910. The building has been restored and kept close to its original appearance. The stucco decorations, wooden wainscoting, original tables and furniture assure it’s historical appeal. Allegorical scenes painted on a sidewall, original wallpaper and other decorations create a special atmosphere. Today’s patrons of The French Restaurant tend to escape the contemporary hustle of the new millennium and opt to return almost 100 years to the days when Art Nouveau ruled in Prague. Registered delegates are invited to the Gala Dinner where they will be surrounded by unique details created during the most significant period of Czech artists, including the present with the restaurant’s chef, Mr. Jiri Kral, winner of many international culinary competitions. Enjoy not only the beauty of The Municipal House, but also the tastes of an award-winning chef, while you mingle with other energy colleagues for an evening of history, beauty and fine cuisine. Conference Information (Have Any Conference Questions? - Call 216-464-5365 for Answers)

HOTEL RESERVATION / INFORMATION Transport from the airport to the hotel: A subsidiary of Czech Air- The Dorint Don Giovanni Hotel, the conference venue, is con- lines, AIRTOURS will provide a shuttle bus between the airport and veniently located near the business district and Prague city attrac- hotel for selected CSA flights on June 4, 2003. Otherwise, taxis can be tions. We have a special room block at the following rates per night: hired at the airport. The trip to the Hotel DORINT is approximately US$20.00. Single/Double Room Euro 151 Expect More Room Euro 171 (Executive Floor) DISCOVER PRAGUE Prague or “The Mother of Cities” is steeped in treasures both These special rates apply for occupancy May 29 – June 11, 2003, past and present. In the heart of the historical Bohemian region of leaving you plenty of time before and after the conference to enjoy central Europe, visitors are treated to history at every turn; the Jew- Prague. Please note that you MUST make your reservations prior to ish quarter, the National Gallery, Old Town Square, Charles Bridge, Thursday, May 15, 2003, to receive these special rates. Reservations Wenceslas Square and the Lesser Quarter. There is no limit to the placed after May 15, will be confirmed at the group rate on a space- amount of history bestowed upon the towers of The Prague Castle available basis. Check-in time is 3:00 pm and check-out time is and St. Vitus Cathedral. 12:00 noon. For reservations please complete the hotel booking form The Czech Republic’s capital city is located on the Vltava included in this conference announcement and either fax this to 420- (Moldau) River. Prague offers the traveler a view of all the major 2-6703-6704 (c/o Ms. Denisa Havlik) or email to the attention of architectural styles of Western European history. Prague’s buildings Ms. Denisa Havlik at [email protected] are well preserved, as they have been relatively free of major wars. Do not send your Hotel Booking form to the Conference Be sure to leave a few days both pre and post of the conference secretariet or IAEE Headquarters. Hotel Booking forms must be sent to allow for time to take in all that Prague has to offer. Walk the direct to the Dorint Don Giovanni Hotel in Prague for processing and Royal Route: Prague Castle (containing walls more than a millen- confirmation. nium old and current home of the Czech president). Within the walls TRAVEL DOCUMENTS of Prague Castle you can visit St. Vitus Cathedral, the Royal Palace All international attendees to the IAEE International Confer- and St. George’s Basilica, which is now an art gallery. Before leav- ence are urged to contact their travel agent regarding the necessity of ing the castle, wander through Golden Lane, an alley of 16 tiny houses a Visa and/or Passport documents to gain entrance to the Czech Re- built along a former castle wall named for the goldsmiths once em- public. If you need a Visa make sure you obtain a Business Visa. ployed by the Emperor. th Allow plenty of time for processing these documents. If you need a Stroll across Charles Bridge built in the mid-14 century by letter of invitation to attend the conference, contact IAEE with a fax Charles IV. The bridge is open to pedestrians only. Take your time request at 216-464-2737. Please provide your return fax number so to enjoy the view and discover the significance of the monarch’s use that we may promptly respond to your request. Note that IAEE does of astrologers to time the building of the bridge to be at the most not have funds to sponsor participant’s registration, travel or hotel/ appropriate time. Speaking of time, just over the bridge, in Old Town transportation costs, etc. in conjunction with this meeting. Square, you’ll find the astrological clock with performances at the top of each hour depicting the march of the twelve apostles. Wolfgang AIR TRANSPORTATION Amadeus Mozart walked the streets of Old Town and conducted the CSA – Czech Airlines – is the official carrier of the 26th Annual premiere of Don Giovanni within its borders. IAEE International Conference. CSA offers a 15% discount from If all your touring hasn’t left you exhausted, you can find some applicable economy class fares and a 25% discount from business good buys while shopping. Blood-red garnets are the official Czech class fares for participants of the conference after checking the regis- national gem, fine crystal has been produced in Bohemia since the tration form in all CSA offices worldwide. The discount will be 14th century, antiques including books and prints are readily avail- valid for journeys during the following period: 7 days before the able, local beer is a bit heavy to carry home, but you can take home a beginning of the conference – 7 days after the end of the conference. taste of Prague with Becherovka, the country’s popular herbal li- The discount is not valid for flights OK 3000 – OK 4999. Please queur. contact your nearest CSA office when booking your flight to Prague Prague has a tradition for theater. Prague’s leading theaters after December 1, 2002. include: the National Theatre, the State Opera, the Estates’ Theatre To receive these special discounts please contact your nearest and the Magic Lantern. You can choose between many performances CSA office. You will need to provide them with the title of the con- such as dance, drama, music or a musical. Wherever you choose, you ference: “26th Annual IAEE Conference” and email your confirma- can be sure that you are sitting where history was made. tion of registration for the conference. Click on To plan your time both pre and post of the conference, be sure to www.czechairlines.com for more information on CSA services, time- check out the following websites: www.czech.cz, tables and a list of offices worldwide. www.centraleurope.com/ceo/czech, www.pis.cz or www.prague- GROUND TRANSPORTATION info.cz These should be useful for general tips, city highlights and travel information. A good metro system, as well as trams and buses serve the city and its suburbs. Metro and tramlines crisscross the city in all direc- CLIMATE tions, while buses generally serve suburban areas, often running from Prague’s weather in June is usually nice, although rain or show- metro station to areas between and beyond metro lines. Tickets can ers are possible. The average temperature at the time of the confer- be purchased in metro stations and in newsstands, but not on board a ence is usually around 70F / 21C but you may find cooler evenings bus or tram. A special deal has been negotiated for conference del- and hotter days. Be sure to check out the weekly forecast at: http:// egates. For approximately US$2.00, delegates can obtain a 4-day www.weather.com/outlook/travel/local/EZXX0012 pass valid for all modes of public transportation – an excellent value! Discount transportation tickets may be purchased at the IAEE Regis- WHAT TO WEAR tration Desk. The Hotel DORINT Don Giovanni is conveniently located just This year’s conference attire is business dress. This includes above the metro station ZELIVSKEHO, four metro stops from the suits and ties for gentlemen; skirts, nine-to-five dresses and pantsuits city center. It takes about 10 minutes to get to downtown. Also, the for ladies. (Please note: Although the temperatures outside may be tram station is located nearby. Basically, no taxi or car rental is warm, often the air-conditioning indoors warrants a light sweater or necessary in Prague, except for the period between midnight and jacket.) 5am, when the metro does not run. During this period, only tram and buses are available. Registration Form NEW CHALLENGES FOR ENERGY DECISION MAKERS June 4-7, 2003 • Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni, Prague, Czech Republic REGISTRATION FEES are payable in advance. Complete the form below and mail to IAEE Conference Headquarters along with your check payable to IAEE in U.S. dollars and drawn on a U.S. bank. Conference registration fees may be wire transferred. Fax 216-464-2737 for wire transfer information. Hotel and related travel costs are not included in registration fees. Registration fees include: registration materials, a copy of the conference proceedings on CD-Rom, three lunches, four receptions, one dinner and coffee breaks. Students: submit a letter stating that you are a full-time student and are not employed full-time. The letter should provide the name and contact information for your main faculty supervisor or your department chair and a copy of your student identification card. IAEE reserves the right to verify student status. Type of registration (check which applies): Received on or Before Received Received Check Speakers and Poster Session May 3, 2003 May 4 to After June 1, 2003 Below Participants - NOTE payment June 1, 2003 & Onsite Fee _____ must be received by 3/3/03 $ 495.00 US _____ IAEE Members 570.00 US $ 620.00 US $645.00 US _____ Nonmembers (includes membership) 670.00 US 720.00 US 745.00 US _____ Nonmembers (without membership) 705.00 US 755.00 US 780.00 US _____ Full Time Students 325.00 US 375.00 US 425.00 US _____ Guests (meal functions only; no meeting sessions) 325.00 US 375.00 US 425.00 US _____ Proceedings CD Rom - Member 100.00 US 100.00 US 100.00 US _____ CD Rom - Nonmember 150.00 US 150.00 US 150.00 US _____ Proceedings Print Version - Member 140.00 US 140.00 US 140.00 US _____ Print Version - Nonmember 190.00 US 190.00 US 190.00 US _____ General Conference Sponsorship 250.00 US 250.00 US 250.00 US _____ Student Scholarship Fund Support 50.00 US 50.00 US 50.00 US Total Paid ______Method of Payment _____ Check (Check payable to IAEE in U.S. dollars and drawn on a U.S. bank) _____ Credit Card ______Visa _____ Master Card Card Number ______We do not accept any other credit cards. Expiration Date______Signature ______Last Name: ______First Name: ______Informal First Name (for badge): ______Guest’s Name (for badge), if any: ______Business Title: ______Company/Organization: ______Address: ______City/Country: ______Zip/Mail Code:______Telephone: ______Fax: ______E-mail: ______

At what hotel will you be staying (circle one)? Dorint Hotel Other (please indicate) ______Special Needs: ___Check here if you have a disability or special need and may require accommodation to fully participate. Please send payment to: CANCELLATIONS/SUBSTITUTIONS IAEE Conference Headquarters All cancellations and substitutions must be received in writing at IAEE Conference Headquarters. Cancellations 28790 Chagrin Blvd., Ste. 350 received on or before May 3, 2003 are subject to a non-refundable $250.00 administrative fee. Cancellations received after May 3, 2003 will be honored, however, no refund will be made. There will be no refunds for no-shows. There is Cleveland, OH 44122 USA no exception allowed to this policy. Should you be unable to attend, substitutions may be made to transfer your Phone: 216-464-2785; Fax: 216-464-2768 registration to another member of your organization at any time up to June 1, 2003. E-mail: [email protected]

IAEE 26th International Conference Presorted June 4-7, 2003 • Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni, Prague, Czech Republic Standard IAEE Conference Headquarters U.S.Postage Paid 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350 Richfield, OH Cleveland, OH 44122 USA Permit No. 82 Dorint

DON* GIOVANNI* * * PRAGUE

HOTEL BOOKING FORM 26th IAEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 04th June 2003 - 07th June 2003 DORINT HOTEL DON GIOVANNI Vinohradská 157 A, CZ - 130 20 Prague 3 tel.: + 420 2 6703 1111 Please, use one form per delegate. All reservations must be received on or before May 15, 2003. Past this date, the rooms will be offered on space available basis and at the group rates listed below. The group rates are valid for occupancy from May 29, 2003 to June 11, 2003.

Please, send this form to the Dorint Don Giovanni Prague to the attention of Meeting & Convention Department, FAX: + 420 2 6703 6704 or send the form via email to Denisa Havlik: [email protected]

First Name: Last Name: Company: Telephone: Facsimile: E-Mail: Arrival Date: Departure Date: Arrival Time: Credit Card Type & No.: Credit Card Holder: Expiration Date: Authorized Signature: I would like to make the following reservation in the hotel: Please tick: Single Room, price Euro 151,-/room night Please tick: Double Room, price Euro151,-/ room night Please tick: Expect More (executive) Room, price Euro 171,-/ room night The number of Expect More Rooms is limited to 20 rooms for IAEE. Please tick: Please book me a non-smoking room. * All rates as listed above include American Breakfast Buffet daily per person. (One breakfast per paid room only)

Dorint Don Giovanni Prague, Vinohradská 157 a, CZ - 13061 Praha 3 Telephone: operator +420-2-6703-1111; reservations: +420-2-6703-6703; fax +420-2-6703-6704 Dorint Don Giovanni Prague – HypoVereinsbank CZ a.s., Praha, account no. 133 100 5011 / 3800 / for Czech Crowns Dorint Don Giovanni Prague – HypoVereisbank CZ a.s., Praha, account no. 133 100 4107 / 3800 SWIFT: HYVECZPP for Foreign Currency DICO: 003 – 26 14 49 48 IAEE PRAGUE CONFERENCE TECHNICAL AND SOCIAL TOURS

TECHNICAL TOUR ECKG POWER PLANT AND DISTRICT HEATING IN KLADNO & KRIVOKLAT CASTLE This tour will demonstrate the most modern Czech power plant (with fluidized bed technology and a gas turbine) that supplies the City of Kladno with district heat. The heat distribution company TEPO (a conference sponsor) is in itself evidence of the successful transformation of the energy market from a central planning to a free market. This power plant is also an important part of the critical infrastructure of Prague’s power supply. Then you will visit Krivoklat Castle, which is one of the oldest and most important castles of the kings of Bohemia. Its beginnings date back to the 12th century. You can admire the magnificent castle chapel, the Royal Hall, and the Hall of Knights with its exhibitions of Gothic paintings and sculptures. There are many other features you will see at Krivoklat Castle, which is a national cultural monument. A bus will depart the Dorint hotel at 9:00am on Wednesday, June 4 and drop participants off in front of Club Luvka for the conference Opening Reception at 5:00pm. Duration: 8 hours Services: Transport by coach, snack, guide Price per person: 33 Euro If you wish to take part in this technical tour please contact Ms. Monika Mechurova by phone at +420-234 125 232 or [email protected]

SOCIAL TOURS GRAND CITY TOUR OF PRAGUE KARLSTEJN CASTLE The basic standard sightseeing to help you set general impressions A half-day tour takes you approximately 35 km south-west from of the “Golden City”. This tour shows the most famous parts of Prague Prague to the medieval Castle Kirsten. This mighty construction has - the Old Town with Rudolfinum and Old Town Square, Charles been built 1348 under Emperor Charles IV. It has never been con- Bridge and of course the most beautiful part - Hradcany including quered and it was here, where for several centuries the Crown Jew- the Loretto Church, Royal Palace, St. Vitus Cathedral, St. George els and all important documents were kept. The Castle entrance is Church and the Golden Lane. The tour continues to the New Town to reachable after 15 minutes walk uphill from the parking lot. During the Wenceslas Square - famous shopping area. a comprehensive guided tour fortifications and rooms of this impres- sive castle will be seen. After the visit return to Prague. Duration: 3,5 hours Services: transport by coach, partially by Duration: 4,5 hours walking, guide Services: transport by coach, guide, and Price per person: 18 Euro entrance fee JEWISH QUARTER WALKING TOUR Price per person: 24 Euro First part of the tour includes the highlights of the historical Prague PILSNER BREWERY - Old Town with the Astronomical Clock, Tyn Church. In the famous Beer has been brewed in Pilsen since 1295. But the Pilsner beer has Jewish Quarter also called Josefov, first the visitor get acquainted the name of the Prazdroj brewery (Pilsner Urquell), which was built with the history of the former Ghetto and the Old New Synagogue, in 1842. During this tour you will understand how real Pilsner was the tour shows the Jewish cemetery, visiting also some of the syna- brewed and drunk in the past, how real Pilsner is brewed and how gogues. Visitors are also informed about Franz Kafka and his native real Pilsner is drunk. house is shown to them during this tour. Duration: 7 hours Duration: 2 hours Services: bus, guide, entrance fee Services: entries to Jewish Quarter, guide Price per person: 41 Euro Price per person: 22 Euro We have arranged special discounts for IAEE delegates. To make reservations for any of the above social tours contact:

CSA Airtours.a.s Kolejni 2 160 00 PRAHA 6 Phone: +420 2 20104521523 Fax: +420 2 20104526 E-mail: [email protected]

“SURVIVORS PARTY” — “U FLEKU” BREWERY AND RESTAURANT The conference closing “Survivor’s Party” will be held at U Fleku on Saturday, June 7, between 8pm and midnight. This place goes back to the 15th century and the beer served is brewed on the spot. It is a dark malty beer that goes well with hearty meals to be served at the party. Despite many centuries, the rooms are almost still in their original state. The food has improved since then, though it’s not exactly diet food. Roast beef, roast pig, fish, and other treats will be waiting for your stomachs. Local schnapps will be a certain delight for connoisseurs. Dress: White tie, Black tie, business suit, jeans, shorts, anything will do. All we need is your presence, and we will foot the bill regardless of how much beer you drink and food you eat. Transportation will be provided to and from the Hotel Dorint.