Statement issued by Shri P. Chidambaram, Shri Rajeev Gowda and Shri Salman Soz
An Economy in Deep Trouble: The Modi-Jaitley Legacy
As it becomes evident that the Modi government is on its way out, the BJP’s desperation has visibly grown. With each passing day, as Mr Modi indulges in vile rhetoric, the Finance Minister blogs poor attempts at rationalising that language. Between the rhetoric and the blogging, this government has forgotten the economy. The next government has a huge task of reviving the economy. Thankfully, the Congress Party is ready to steer the Indian economy out of the Modi-Jaitley slump.
The worrying "macro-economic" indicators The Indian economy has entered a disastrous phase of economic slowdown under the Modi-Jaitley jugalbandi reflected by the consistent fall in quarterly growth of real GDP. A massive shortfall of Rs.1.6 lakh crore in the tax revenues would effectively increase the actual fiscal deficit to 3.9%. The economy is expected to slow down further.
The Finance Minister has perfected the art of concealing data and projecting doctored information. Contrary to the false narratives of the Modi Government, the poorest Indians have been worst sufferers of the economic mismanagement. Oxfam's Global Inequality report 2018 showed that 73% of the wealth generated in India in 2017-2018 was pocketed by the richest 1% of the Indian populace while the poorest 50% saw a marginal increase of 1% in their wealth over the same period.
The “Naukri Vinash” PM Mr. Modi is the first Prime Minister whose legacy will be of a “Job Destroying PM”, built on the two "Tughlaqi Farmans" of Demonetization and Gabbar Singh Tax. In 2018 itself, India lost over 1.1 crore jobs.
The leaked NSSO survey reports that the unemployment rate reached a 45-year high of 6.1% in 2017 (nearly tripled from 2012), with the youth being the worst sufferers of the government’s surgical strikes on jobs and the economy.
Unemployment for young males (15-29 years) has tripled. Over 88 lakh women lost their jobs in 2018, accounting for over 80% of the total job loss according to the CMIE report.
“Suit Boot Sarkar” has crushed the rural economy The BJP’s apathy for the rural economy and agriculture manifests itself in wages, prices, growth, and employment data.
Under Modi government, rural wages have stagnated while non-core inflation has grown. Also, we are in the midst of the worst agricultural price slump in 18 years. Agricultural growth has halved in the Modi government (2014-2018) as compared to growth achieved under the UPA government (2004-2013). Additionally, rural casual labour has also seen an almost 30% decline in employment.
Key indicators confirm an economic slowdown In almost all high-frequency indicators that measure consumer sentiment (ranging from domestic automobile sales to cement production), the Dr Manmohan Singh led UPA government outperformed the Modi government. The slowdown is confirmed by household savings and private consumption data. Household savings has declined from ~20% in FY14 to ~17% in FY18. Private consumption has also seen a recent decline according to the government’s own reports.
Investments have come to a halt Despite their self declared pro-development credentials, PM Modi’s government has stalled India’s investment cycle. Average total investments under this government have seen an 8% decline versus the UPA I and II average. Manufacturing investments follow the same pattern. As a result, the number of new factories built under the Modi government is a mere ~3,400 per year on average. This compares poorly to the average of ~10,000 built in UPA era. Additionally, new project investments have also seen a slump from ~INR 2.8 Trillion in December 2016 to less than ~INR 1 Trillion in December 2018.
Banking Sector Crisis The Modi government has witnessed a four-fold rise in banking frauds and wilful defaults. A crisis on the NBFC front has emerged with little response from the BJP government.
A select few businesses, often in close association with the Prime Minister, have acted with impunity and led to the current crisis. BJP’s cosying up to the likes of Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi has resulted in a sharp rise in NPAs and a sluggish credit growth, leading to a squeeze in credit for the MSMEs.
Weak Exports and Rupee The trade outlook has been negative and portends a weak economy. Foreign investment inflows have been declining. The rupee fell to a historic low of 74/$. Demonetisation and GST broke the back of the economy, leading to a squeeze in exports. At a time of a positive world trade climate, India’s exports (as a percentage of GDP) fell to a 14-year low. The below-par export growth has been accompanied by a sharp rise in imports, leading to a record high trade deficit.
The only spectacular achievement of the Modi-Jaitley regime has been squandering a favourable world trade climate. Despite having to contend with a global recession and extraordinarily high fuel prices, UPA delivered high growth rates and an inclusive development model.
Modi-Jaitley’s economic model is of “Nationalisation of loss and privatisation of profit”. This model has brought distress to every sector, the only exceptions have been the businesspeople close to the BJP. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP
FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP | FAILURES ACROSS SECTORS
AICC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
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FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP | FAILURES ACROSS SECTORS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE AGRICULTURE……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3 EDUCATION……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 8 HEALTH…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12 WOMEN………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16 BANKING………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 20 SANITATION & WATER…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22 ENVIRONMENT AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT……………………………………………………………….. 24 DEFENCE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 27 INTERNAL SECURITY……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29 JOBS (JOBS, YOUTH, MSME, SKILLING…………………………………………………………………………….. 31 SOCIAL JUSTICE………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 38 HOUSING, URBAN AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT………………………………………………………………… 44 INFRASTRUCTURE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 46 ECONOMY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 54
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FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP | FAILURES ACROSS SECTORS
AGRICULTURE
Between 2004 and 2013 (UPA Government) Agri growth 3.84% per annum
Between 2014 and 2018 (BJP Government) Agri growth 1.88% per annum
OVERALL GROWTH RATE 1. Between 2014 and 2018, the growth rate of agriculture has declined to 1.88% per annum, which is almost half of that achieved under the UPA government at 3.84% from 2004-05 to 2012-13. 2. To double farmer incomes by 2022 as promised by Prime Minister Modi, the agricultural growth rate must be at least 15% over the next three years.
1. Agriculture received a 144 percent rise in allocation in the interim budget.
a. Allocation increased from Rs 57,600 crore in the 2018-19 budget estimates to Rs 1,40,764 crore in 2019-20 MINISTRY the interim budget ALLOCATIONS: b. However, the Ministry routinely underspends its allocation, making this nothing more than an ELECTION election gimmick. Actual expenditure was less than budgeted expenditure in all years of the NDA GIMMICKS Government except for 2016-17
2. The Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, a scheme that proposed to give Rs. 2000 thrice a year for a total of Rs. 6000 to small and marginal farmers, was announced. The sum of money given is paltry and will not provide any significant assistance to farmers.
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Research and education, which would have a long-term impact on farmer livelihoods, are clearly not priorities DECREASE IN for the BJP government. RESEARCH AND EDUCATION In 2014-15, the expenditure for the Department of Agriculture Research and Education stood at 19% of the Ministry’s expenditure, a decline of 5.7%.
1.In the 2018-19 Revised Estimates, the spend that the Centre shares with states has fallen by 17.6% from 17,908.92 to 14,756.95. STATES 2. In 2008, UPA announced a farm loan waiver worth Rs 60,000 crore under the Agriculture Debt NEGLECTED Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme, which benefited 3.73 crore farmers. However, the BJP is leaving it up to the states to foot the loan waiver bill, leaving BJP states severely disadvantaged. EXAMPLES: a. Maharashtra: Only 46 lakh famers declared eligible from the 77 lakh applied for loan waiver and only 31 lakh farmers benefitted b. Uttar Pradesh: 4800 of the loans waived were between Re 1 and Rs 100
1.India's agricultural exports were down 46% by volume, over 50% by value in Apr-Dec 2018. PROMOTION OF 2. India’s exports of agricultural products have declined by 19 per cent in the four years – from EXPORTS $39.6 billion in 2013-14 to $32 billion in 2016-17. 3. The import of agricultural and allied products has risen from $14.6 billion in 2013-14 to $24.2 billion in 2016-17. This is a massive 66% hike.
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The BJP is failing to implement the recommendations of the MS Swaminathan Commission, which stated that the cost of cultivation would be based on actual paid out cost, interest on fixed capital, and the
imputed value of family labour and rental value of owned land. MSP: BIG In January, there were 19,872 transactions across 18 states, where the price was below the MSP in PROMISES, NO 2018-19. FOLLOW THROUGH Just 12% of the 33.6 million farmers who were growing wheat availed of the government’s MSP.
UPA II: Between 2009 and 2013 NDA: Between 2014 and 2018 GROWTH IN MSP 11.28% 4.91% (ALL CROPS)
FARMING In March 2018, 69% of farmers surveyed by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) FORGOTTEN thought that city life would be better than village life.
PM KISAAN SAMMAN NIDHI
The minimum income transfer scheme has been allocated Rs. 75,000 crore for 2019-20. With an intended
12 crore beneficiaries, it seeks to provide Rs. 6000 per annum to every small and marginal farmer with up FAILED SCHEMES/ to 2 hectares of land. PROGRAMMES 1. This amounts to Rs 3.33 per day for an average farmer household of 5, much lower than what one can earn through MGNREGA. 2. This scheme does not address the average annual indebtedness of farmers, which stands at Rs. 47,000/year, and it does not help those 57.74% of rural households that are landless.
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PM FASAL BIMA YOJANA As of May 2018, only 45% of all claims made under the PMFBY had been disbursed to the farmers. Private players have benefited far more than the intended farmers. They stand to have windfall gains of Rs 3000 crore.
PM KRISHI SINCHAI YOJANA July 2015 saw the announcement of the scheme with an outlay of Rs. 50,000 crore for the next 5 years, at approximately Rs. 10,000 crore/year.
The allocation in this budget, like the last 4 years, has been far below the initial target, decreasing around 25% from Rs. 4000 crore to Rs. 2954.69 crore in the 2018-19 revised estimates.
MGNREGA
Funding to the Employment guarantee scheme saw a 1.7% decrease.
Any decrease is unacceptable given the current allocation does not even service 50% of the requirement.
THE MATHS: There are 7.4 crore active MGNREGA job cards of the total 12.8 crore cards that exist. At an average wage rate of Rs. 222 a day – providing all these people take 100 days of work – it would cost Rs. 1,64,280 crore. This is far more than the current allocation of Rs. 60,000 Crores.
UNPRECEDENTED With rural wage growth down from 8.4% under UPA II to 3.09% in Jan 2018 (effectively negative growth NUMBER OF rate factoring in inflation) under NDA, rural communities are suffering, but the government does not want PROTESTS to listen.
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An RBI paper identified the contraction in food prices and the NGREGA scheme as key culprits. KEY PRTOTESTS 1. India was swept by a dozen major farm protests in 2018, with thousands of farmers travelling to Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai in the last week of November 2018 alone.
2. According to data released by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), agrarian protests shot up by more than 6.5 times from 628 in 2014 to 4,837 in 2016.
3. Protests in BJP ruled states turned fatally violent: a. In June 2017, 6 farmers were shot dead during a police firing amidst a protest in Mandsaur, Madhya Pradesh.
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EDUCATION
Despite the BJP’s promises to improve education across the country, expenditure in the sector has seen a substantial reduction. Instead of supporting education as a public good, the BJP FALLING BUDGET ALLOCATION government is privatising it at the cost of access to education for the poor and vulnerable. 1. Education’s share in the total union budget fell from 2.55% in 2014-15 to 2.05% in 2018-19 2. Between 2011-14, UPA spent an average of 4.5% of the budget on education 3. UPA government allocated up to 3.29% of GDP on education
There has been a 34% reduction in budget allocation in 2019-20 budget estimates. GENDER GAP IN This is especially dangerous given the gender gap in enrollments already present: ENROLMENT (11-16 YEARS) As per the ASER 2018 Survey, the children not in school:
Age 11-14 Boys: 2.6%
Girls: 3.6%
Age 15-16 Boys: 15.4%
Girls: 24.9%
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MERGING SCHEMES, REDUCING BUDGETS: SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN
1. In 2018, the Modi government merged the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan with Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan.
2. The merger undermined the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan by depriving it of funds.
3. In the 2018-19 Union budget, the allocations to all the schemes were made under separate heads. By May, the heads were merged and combined funds were released, but states reported FAILED SCHEMES/ that funds released under the combined scheme were smaller than what states received under PROGRAMMES separate heads.
MADAN MOHAN MALAVIYA TEACHER AND TRAINING SCHEME
1. The Right to Education Act 2009 – implemented in 2010 – had given the government five years to train all school teachers, but the 2015 deadline passed with 11 lakh untrained teachers in schools. In August 2017, the government amended the Act to extend the deadline to 2019.
2. Gross budgetary support has gone down by 83% for FY19. 3. As of March 2017, 17.64% of sanctioned teaching posts (900,316/5,103,539) in elementary schools and 15.7% (107,689/685,895) posts in secondary schools are vacant. This has led to under-qualified or contract teachers being employed. The children are the ones who ultimately suffer from this mismanagement.
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KENDRIYA VIDYALAYA SANGATHAN
Reduction to Rs. 4425 crore in BE 2018-19 from Rs. 4600.5 in RE 2017-18.
NAVODAYA VIDYALAYA SAMITI
Reduction to Rs. 2793 crore in BE 2018-19 from Rs 3035 crores in RE 2017-18.
1.Until the Supreme Court eventually put a halt to Aadhaar linking in schools in September 2018, this Central decree resulted in massive disruptions, keeping children out of school or DISRUPTIONS, denying them access to benefits in states like Uttar Pradesh and even Delhi. MISMANAGEMENT AND SCANDAL 2. NITI Aayog released funds for laboratories in over 2,000 schools, but a large number of these are well-funded private schools. 3. Exam scandals: In March 2018, the Central Board’s Class 10 Mathematics and Class 12 Economics question papers were leaked and circulated through social media. Ultimately, the board only chose to conduct a re-examination for economics. 4. There has been a 24% decline in funding for the newly constituted Higher Education Funding Agency (HEFA) in the 2019 interim budget.
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INDIAN INSTITUTES OF Funding allocation reduced by 50% from Rs. 828 crore in the previous budget to Rs. 413 MANAGEMENT FUNDING crore in the present one.
No budget allocation for: • Digital India e-learning CONSPICUOUS BY ABSENCE • Support to Voluntary Associations/SRCs/Institutions for Adult Education and Skill Development
• Strengthening of Teachers Training Institutions
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HEALTH
INTERIM BUDGET 2019-20 The total allocation for the Health sector this year has seen an increase of 15.9% compared to BUDGET ALLOCATION the amount allocated in the previous budget. However, the total outlay still remains low at 1.15% of GDP. This expenditure is much lower than the world average of 6%. Under the National Health Policy 2017, the NDA government promised that the budgetary allocation for health would be increased to 2.5 per cent by 2025. Based on current trends in allocation for the health sector, this is highly unlikely.
1. UPA Govt was effective in reducing MMR between 2007-13, with a 21% fall in rates.
2. The BJP Govt has not released data about
MMR since 2014, belying doubts about their MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE interventions in reducing MMR. 3. WHO report pegs MMR at 174 of 100,000 live births in India in 2017, indicating an increase from 167 in 2014 under the UPA. This is an indication that the Modi Govt has failed at improving maternal health.
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NUTRITION The nutritional safety of children and mothers is under threat as Ministry of Women & Child Development has moved to replace the hot cooked meals and panjiri given under ICDS with
direct cash transfers.
AYUSHMAN BHARAT
Increases in allocated funding likely only benefits private hospitals rather than citizens. The low central allocations to this scheme, the unrealistic premium of Rs 1,000 per household and the rates set for various procedures ilustrate how Ayushman Bharat is only sustainable from a PR point of view.
In 2019-20 the government has earmarked only Rs 6,400 crore for PMJAY. If beneficiaries conservatively spend even 1% of their Rs 5 lakh quota in a year, the annual expenditure under the scheme will be Rs 50,000 crore. FAILED SCHEMES/ PROGRAMMES NATIONAL RURAL HEALTH MISSION
1. The allocations for the UPA government flagship scheme, the National Rural Health Mission have been consistently declining since the NDA came to power. 2. Allocations for the scheme have been increased by only 2.16%, despite the 20% shortage of health sub-centres, 22% shortage of primary health centres and 30% shortage of community health centres in the country.
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NATIONAL HEALTH MISSION 1. The overall budgetary allocations for the National Health Mission have seen an increase of only 0.81%.
2. NDA have announced several new AIIMS, however there is no budget sanctioned for them.
3. The allocation for the establishment of new medical colleges and upgrading District Hospitals in the country has been reduced by Rs. 1167 crore.
On coming to power in 2014, the NDA announced 4 new AIIMS followed by 7 more in 2015 and 2 more in 2017, none of these are currently near completion - five of the AIIMS announced by the NDA are yet to get Cabinet approval, while only 3 percent of the funds for the sanctioned ones have been released.
JAN AUSHADHI SCHEME
Most of the stores, under the scheme haven't stocked common medicines for months for lack of supply. These include medicines for seasonal infections, gas, cough, cold, etc.
PRADHAN MANTRI JAN AAROGYA YOJANA
1. Scheme is designed to offer annual health cover of Rs. 5 lakh per family.
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2. The scheme aims to cover the poorest 40% of India’s population, but the budget allocated in 2018 was just Rs. 2,000 crore, which is not nearly sufficient.
3. Policy increases the likelihood of pumping public funds into private healthcare and weakening public health facilities.
1. No allocation has been made for the State Drug Regulatory Systems under the National Health Mission, despite India having one of the poorest drug regulatory, pricing and quality
control mechanisms.
2. Former Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in his 2015 Budget Speech had said that the POOR IMPLEMENTATION government had prepared an Action Plan to eliminate Kala Azar by 2017. However, the AND ABSENT ALLOCATION government has missed the deadlines, with an increase in endemic blocks from 61 to 68 in 17 districts of Bihar and Jharkhand.
3. Union Health Minister JP Nadda had announced that 1.5 lakh Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs) would be built by 2022, for which an allocation of 1,200 crore had been made. However, of the planned 1.5 lakh only about 3000, i.e. 2 per cent have been built so far.
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WOMEN
1. Average cases of rapes per year has gone up 63.79% under NDA (as compared to the complete UPA tenure). Between 2004 and 2013, 22,455 rapes occurred per annum on
average, while between 2014 and 2016 under the NDA, 36,778 rapes occur per annum.
2. Meanwhile, government machinery is failing as the conviction rate for crimes against women has been on a decline under the BJP. In 2014, the national average was 21% and it came down to 18.9% in 2016. Furthermore, it is a mere 3.4% in Gujarat, a state that Modi presents as a model for the nation.
STATUS QUO – BJP RULE 3. BJP States are the worst for women in the country: DANGEROUS FOR WOMEN a. Top 3 States in Rapes: Madhya Pradesh (Under BJP), Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra
b. Top 3 States in Gang Rapes: Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan (Under BJP), Madhya Pradesh (Under BJP)
c. Top 3 States in Assaults on women: Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh (Under BJP)
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1. The allocations to the Ministry of Women and Child Development was Rs. 29164.90 crore
i.e. only 1.04 % of the total Union Budget for 2019-20.
2. The allocation for the Rashtriya Mahila Kosh is a paltry Rs 1 lakh.
3. Reductions in Revised Estimates: Failure to implement Scheme:
BUDGET ALLOCATION SCHEMES 2018-19 2018-19 % 2019-20 (BE)* (RE)* Decline (BE)* FOR 2019-20 Gender Budget (100% women-oriented 4271.09 2573.66 39.7% 4018.01 schemes and programmes)
Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana 2400 1200 50% 2500
1.Allocations for National Creche Scheme has reduced by 77% between BE 2018-19 and BE 2019-20, i.e., from Rs 128 crore to Rs 30 crore. REDUCTIONS FROM PREVIOUS BUDGET 2. The funds for Women’s Helpline has been reduced from Rs 28.8 crore to Rs 17.78 crore, i.e., a reduction of 38%. 3. STEP (Support to Training and Employment Programme for Women) has seen a reduction in allocation from Rs 40 crore in the previous budget to Rs 5 crore in the present one.
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1.There has been no change in the allocations to the Nirbhaya Fund, which stands at Rs. 500 crore, which is a mere 13.8% of the total corpus of Rs. 3600 crore. NON-PERFORMING SCHEMES 2.While the allocation for Beti Bachao Beti Padhao has risen, it must be noted that most of the funds are diverted towards advertising. In 2018-19, out of Rs. 280 crore allocated, Rs 70.63 was released to states and districts and Rs. 155.71 crore were spent on media activities. A whopping 55% of funds were spent on media activities while 20% of the funds have not even been spent.
GENDER GAP INDEX 1.Latest ranking is 10 notches lower than its reading in 2006 when the WEF started measuring the gender gap. Rank went from 98 in 2006 2.Decline caused due to widening of gender gaps in political empowerment as well as healthy to 108 in 2018 life expectancy and basic literacy. 3.India ranks 142nd out of 149 countries in the economic opportunity and participation subindex.
1.Ranked 149th out of 193 nations in 2018 on percentage of women in the lower house. INTER-PARLIAMENTARY 2. World Bank data shows the proportion of seats held by women in the lower house of UNION: PARTICIPATION OF parliament increased to just 11.8% in 2018. WOMEN IN POLITICS 3. Experts have called for creation of quotas for women to increase their political participation
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4. The Women's Reservation Bill, which was passed by the Rajya Sabha under UPA-II, lapsed with the dissolution of the 15th Lok Sabha in 2014. Despite their majority, the BJP has not passed this bill.
India’s female workforce participation rate sits at 24 percent, according to the 2018 Economic Survey, which is amongst the worst in South Asia. In the previous Budget Speech, Shri Arun Jaitley had se WOMEN AT WORK promised that “To incentivi employment of more women in the formal sector and to enable higher take-home wages, I propose to make amendments in the Employees Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions Act, 1952”. But, no amendment has been tabled by the government so far.
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BANKING
NON- 1.Despite claims of recovery, gross NPAs still grew at 8.4% to Rs 902,853 crore in the October-December quarter PERFORMING (2018). ASSETS (NPAs) 2. 17 of 21 lenders surveyed by CARE Ratings still had 10% gross NPAs as a percentage of their advances, i.e., for every 100 rupees lent, Rs 10 has not come back in PSBs.
MUDRA 1. Rs. 7277.31 crore of MUDRA loans disbursed by PSBs turned into NPAs in 2017-18, up from Rs. 596.72 crore TURNED NPAs in 2015-16. 2. 3.43% of all loans disbursed under the scheme by PSBs have turned into NPAs.
1. The number of bank accounts nearly doubled between 2014 and 2018, with Jan Dhan Yojana: JAN DHAN: (NON) a. By December 2016, 24% of the accounts were zero balance accounts, no data for the subsequent period is INCLUSIVE available
BANKING b. Other accounts saw very large deposits, raising suspicions that they were used for money laundering c. The accounts have helped the government transfer money directly to beneficiaries, but such transfers have created stress on the banking system, and have been prone to errors d. Rural Credit Deposit ratio which was 67 in March 2014, declined to 60 in March 2017
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2. Basic Savings Bank Deposit Accounts were growing around 30% each year since 2011-’12. After the initial surge in 2014, the rate of increase in accounts slowed down, until it reached a mere 0.6% increase in 2017-18.
UPA (2010-14) NDA (2014-18)
RURAL BRANCHES 12,748 4,679 RURAL OPENED BANKING RURAL BANKING CORRESPONDENTS 3,03,504 1,77,639 APPOINTED
TOTAL 1,82,318 3,16,252
FRDI BILL WITHDRAWN
FAILED a. BJP’s anti-people, anti-poor Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurancee (FRDI) bill was forced to be withdrawn, in a major defeat to the government. PROGRAMMES b. The FDI Bill’s “bail in” clause endangered depositors’ money in case of liquidation
FAULTY BANK RECAPITALISATION PLAN Fallacy of Market Recapitalisation: The failing banks are to raise the rest from the market.
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SANITATION & WATER
LOW ALLOCATION a. The overall budgetary allocations for the Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation have declined by 8.88%, from the previous year’s budget.
1.Swachh Bharat (Urban and Rural) has been slashed by 28% from the previous budget 2018-19 of Rs. 17843 crore, to Rs. 12750 crore in 2019-20 (BE).
SWACHH BHARAT ABHIYAN BUDGET 2. The allocation for the rural component of the NDA’s flagship scheme has been slashed by 30%, from SLASHED Rs. 14,478 crore for 2018 - 19 to Rs. 10,000 crore for 2019 -2020.
3. Several important components within the programme have also seen a major decline in allocations:
a. The allocations for ‘Monitoring and Evaluation’ of the programme have been slashed by 66.9% b. The allocation for the ‘Programme Component’ of the mission has been slashed by 68%
NDA’S MISSED An RTI report has revealed that since its launch through to 2017, the Modi government spent Rs. 530 TARGETS crore on advertising the Swachh Bharat Mission. However, it’s budgetary allocation for building awareness and communication is only Rs. 190 crore.
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1. More than 163 million Indians do not have access to safe drinking water, despite BJP spending 90% NATIONAL RURAL of Rs. 89,956 crore over the five years leading up to 2017. DRINKING WATER a. An August 2018 report from the government’s auditor stated that the government has “failed” its PROGRAMME targets b. Nearly 18% of rural habitations get less than 40 litres per person per day under the National Rural Drinking Water Programme 2. India ranks on top among nations that have the most people without clean water availability close to home, according to a 2018 WaterAid report.
DEMOLITION OF It has come to light that the Government in multiple locations, such as in Indore, demolished houses HOUSES TO and hutments that did not have toilets after taking the stipulated sum of money under the MANIPULATE DATA Swacch Bharat Abhiyan for building toilets. This was done in order to manipulate data and reduce the percentage of houses without toilets.
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ENVIRONMENT & DISASTER MANAGEMENT
DISASTER In spite of the devastation of floods and other disasters in recent years, allocations have dropped for MANAGEMENT disaster management from Rs. 348.46 crore in the previous budget to Rs. 249.60 crore in the present BUDGET one a reduction of 28%. ALLOCATIONS –
1.Under UPA, NDMA was constituted under the Disaster Management Act of 2005
a. In the past 5 years, the authority has been ineffective in carrying out most of its functions b. NDMA had initiated projects for flood mitigation and landslide mitigation at the national level in 2008. However, those projects have either been abandoned midway or are being redesigned c. Projects to prepare national vulnerability atlases of landslides, floods, and earthquake are also incomplete
NATIONAL DISASTER 2. National Disaster Management Plan not implemented MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY PROJECTS a. Massive flooding, internally displaced people, and meagre budget allocation have done next to ABANDONED nothing in helping vulnerable people, particularly in the East. b. Forecasting technology not used resulting in high casualty numbers
3. National Clean Air Programme implemented with very weak mandate
a. Programme not notified under the Environment Protection Act or any other Act thereby depriving it legal backing b. A pittance of Rs. 300 crore has been earmarked for the programme. This sum is not nearly enough to allow the programme to be effectively implemented
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Actuals BE 2019-20 % Decline
135.16 85.8 36% Environmental Knowledge and Capacity Building DECLINE IN SUSTAINABILITY 152.50 95 38% FUNDING National Coastal Management Programme
118.81 100 16% Central Pollution Control Board
990.10 688.00 31% Off-Grid/Distributed and Decentralized Renewable Power
1.The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) selected Prime Minister Narendra Modi for an award, but his track record indicates his regime has done harm to the environment. FAKE ENVIRONMENTALIST a. His ministers have diluted laws without public consultation, especially in their review and attempted amendment of the six main environmental laws of the country b. Institutions have been undermined and it is now easier for corporates to exploit natural resources. Modi’s government disempowered the National Green Tribunal, which was set up by the Congress-led UPA government in 2010 to adjudicate on environmental litigations c. Air pollution and waste continues to worsen d. In an interview PM Modi stated that Climate Change is not real
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Under Modi, India stands 177 (out of 180 countries) on the Environmental Performance Index, 2018. DUBIOUS HONOURS In 2016, India was ranked 141 on the same index.
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DEFENCE
DEFENCE BUDGET 1. BJP continually fails to invest in defence: The Interim Budget 2019 set defence allocation at just over 3.05 lakh crores. Despite this representing a 3.38% increase on last year's allocation of 2.95 lakh crores, in real terms, the defence budget has shrunk, with inflation at 4.74% and the rupee depreciating around 11%. 2. BJP's 2014 election manifesto had promised to: 'Modernise armed forces, and increase the research and development in defence, to develop indigenous defence technologies and fast track defence purchases'. FAILED SCHEMES/PROGRAMMES a. In the 2017 budget, defence received only 12.22% of the total budget outlay – the smallest distribution in the last two decades b. Defence expenditure has declined from 3.18% of GDP in 1988 to half of that now at around 1.6 per cent. This compares unfavourably to the 2-2.5% global standard, with China spending 2.1% and Pakistan 2.36%
3. The ten years of UPA rule saw a considerable increase in expenditure on national security and defence, with an increase from 77,000 crore in 2004-05 to 1,93,407 crore in 2012-13 a. In its ten years in power, the UPA government managed to utilise most of its annual defence budget, returning less than 5% in some cases b. BJP has poor utilisation of budget, returning up to 15% of funds allocated to defence in the budget.
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RAFALE SCANDAL In September 2016, NDA signed an inter-governmental agreement with France. India agreed to pay Rs. 58,000 crore for 36 off-the-shelf Dassault Rafale twin-engine fighters: • Anil Ambani-led Reliance Defence Limited, with zero experience in the aircraft manufacturing sector, was picked to be the French firm's Indian partner.
• Cost of each aircraft is three times more than negotiated with France under the UPA government in 2012
• The 2012 deal UPA negotiated with Dassault had a strong focus on ‘Make in India’ – Prime Minister Modi’s renegotiation took jobs out of India. The technology transfer and manufacture at HAL clauses were dropped.
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INTERNAL SECURITY
INSECURITY & RISE OF A SURVEILLANCE STATE 1. Misuse of Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and Enforcement Directorate (ED). They are being used for political purposes, including possible “collusion” in the probe on the Agusta Westland deal.
2. A committee headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi removed CBI director, Alok Verma, violating the principles of natural justice by denying him a hearing. FAILED SCHEMES/PROGRAMMES 3. Ministry of Home Affairs authorised ten security and intelligence agencies under the central government to intercept, monitor, and decrypt all data contained in any computer system.
4. As of June 2018 there has been a 64% rise in terror incidents in Jammu and Kashmir over three years. a. Armed encounters between militants and security forces have increased by 53% over the three years since BJP came to power b. Casualties of security forces in Jammu and Kashmir have increased from 15 in 2012 to 80 in 2017.
5. Budgetary allocations for the Ministry of Home Affairs have increased, but capital expenditure remains low after almost 5 years of BJP governance.
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1. From the year 2014 till December, 2018, there have been over 1000 incidents involving terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. In these incidents, 183 civilians lost their lives and 838
terrorists were neutralised.
2. 174% rise in terror incidents in J&K (222 in 2014 to 606 in 2018).
3. 35% rise in civilians killed (28 in 2014 to 38 in 2018).
4. 93% rise in security forces killed (47 in 2014 to 91 in 2018)
Terror Incidents in J&K Terror Incidents in J&K THE RESURGENCE OF (2005-13) (2014-18) TERRORISM IN J&K 700 600 2500 500 2000 400 300 1500 200 1000 100
500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 Terror Incidents (2005-13) Terror Incidents in J&K 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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JOBS (JOBS, YOUTH, MSME, SKILLING)
1.Unemployment rate in India rose to 7.2 percent in February 2019, the highest since September 2016, and up from 5.9 percent in February 2018, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
2.The number of employed persons in India was estimated at 400 million in February compared with 406 million a year ago.
3. A report by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that 110 lakh people lost their jobs due to declining employment in 2018.
UNEMPLOYMENT: a. An estimated 9.1 million jobs were lost in rural India while the loss in urban India was 1.8 million jobs BROKEN PROMISES b. Rural India accounts for two-thirds of India's population, but it accounted for 84 per cent of the job losses
c. In light of this it is shameful that the government is reducing funding for three schemes that attempt to rejuvenate rural small industries, which have the capacity to provide jobs to lakhs of rural Indians
4. Empty claims of transparency: The BJP-led Government is withholding employment data.
The National Sample Survey (NSSO) conducted by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has not been released since the 2011-12 round of the survey.
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IMPACT OF GST AND DEMONETISATION A study conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has found that the controversial note-ban imposed in November 2016 has led to further decline in the already falling credit to the MSME sector. The GST roll-out led to an increase in compliance costs and other operating costs as most of MSMEs were brought into the tax net. Over 60 per cent of them were not ready for the new tax regime.
DECREASED ALLOCATIONS FOR SCHEMES (Rs. Crores)
Scheme BE RE BE % Decline 2018-19 2018-19 2019-20 (BE FY19 and BE FY20)
MSMEs: SMALL Village Industries Grant 110 75 101.92 7.33% INDUSTRIES IN RURAL AREAS Khadi Reform Development Package SUFFER 80 146 0.01 99.98% (ADB Assistance)
Coir Vikas Yojana 80 75.93 70.50 11.87%
Coir Udyami Yojana 10 10 2 80%
Technology Upgradation and Quality 1238 1237.56 787.44 36.39% Certification
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Since 2014, Rs.4,632 crore has been disbursed by the ministry in setting up 1.8 lakh units, which have given employment to a total of 13.2 lakh persons. This adds up to about 3.3 lakh people per year.
1. On average, each unit that received the bank loan also got a subsidy of about Rs.2 lakh.
2. The scheme has underperformed given the huge expenditure incurred:
Year Govt. Expenditure (in Units Jobs (in lakh) PRIME MINISTER’S crore) EMPLOYMENT GENERATION 2014-15 1093 48168 3.58 PROGRAM: FEW JOBS TO SHOW FOR EXPENDITURE 2015-16 1286 44340 3.23
2016-17 1083 52912 4.08
2017-18 1170 36109 2.31
Total 4683 181529 13.2
The Prime Minister has widely cited the ZED program as a huge success but the scheme is proving to be a curse for 6 crore micro units. ZERO EFFECT ZERO DEFECT 1. More than 20,935 companies have registered under the ZED scheme, but the process is so strenuous (ZED) SCHEME that, so far, only 68 companies successfully received the ZED rating. 2. Among the 68 units, only 5 belong to the micro category; 13 belong to the medium; and 50 units belong to the small category.
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SCHEMES WITH SEVERE DECLINES IN BUDGET ALLOCATION:
SCHEME (IN RS. CRORES) BE RE BE 2019- % DECLINE
2018-19 2018-19 20 (BETWEEN BE FY19 AND BE FY20) EMPLOYMENT AND
SKILL Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana 3273.34 2765.34 2931.75 10.43% DEVELOPMENT: DECREASE IN ALLOCATIONS FOR Strengthening of Adjudication 10 6.5 0 100% SCHEMES Machinery and holding of Lok Adalats
Machinery for Better Conciliation, Preventive Mediation, Effective 32.11 14 22 31.48% Enforcement of Labour Laws
Creation of National Platform of 50 1 1 98% Unorganized Workers and allotment of Aadhaar seeded ID number
Employees Pension Scheme, 1995 4900 4900 4500 8.16%
National Child Labour Project 120 93.5 100 16.66%
Coaching and Guidance for SC, ST and 22 18 19 13.63% OBC
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Launched in April 2016, this scheme was meant to incentivise job creation with the government agreeing to pay 8.33% of the employer’s contribution towards EPF (this number was subsequently raised to 12% in the 2018-19 budget).
PRADHAN MANTRI 1. The government is obfuscating data received under the scheme to falsely show the creation of new jobs. ROJGAR This is possible because all new PF holders enrolled under the scheme are considered as new employees – PROTSAHAN even if they already held jobs before 2016 YOJNA 2. The 2019-20 budget allocation increased to Rs. 4000 crore from Rs. 1651 crore in the previous year. This is a nonsensical increase in funding given the programme already underspends. In 2017-18, of the Rs. 1000 crore provided, only Rs. 486.01 crore was utilised. It is driven purely by the government’s attempt to inflate employment figures.
PRADHAN MANTRI 1. Of the 41.3 lakh persons trained in three years up till March 2018, only 6.15 lakh of them have gotten KAUSHAL VIKAS jobs. This is a low placement rate of 15%.
2. According to the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC), 76% of those who were placed after YOJANA: NO JOBS undergoing training in PMKVY received wage employment while only 24% could set up their own TO BE FOUND businesses. 3. Just 10,000 of all those trained under PMKVY this year applied for MUDRA loans, meant for self- employment.
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1. Over 40% of allocated funds remain idle (since the last financial year). 2. Out of the total 15.26 crore MUDRA loans sanctioned so far, the Shishu (loans up to Rs. 50 thousand) component stands at over 90%. MUDRA MESS 3. Bad loans under MUDRA have almost doubled since the last fiscal year: In financial year 2015-16, MUDRA generated bad loans worth Rs. 596 crore while in 2016-17 it rose to Rs. 3,790 crore. In 2017-18, the bad loan volume climbed to a dangerous level of Rs. 7,277 crore. 4. Distorting objectives: Self-Employment Through MUDRA loans. The government claims the MUDRA scheme has generated a lot of self-employment and created entrepreneurs. However, data shows that only 2.25 crore new entrepreneurs were provided loans under MUDRA; the rest were already self-employed individuals. This contradicts BJP’s 7.28 crore self-employed figures.
RASHTRIYA YUVA SASHAKTIKARAN KARYAKARAM YOUTH 1. The majority of budget allocation goes to this amalgamation of 7 different programmes, which originally existed independent of each other 2. The grant has gone down from Rs. 153 crore in 2018-19 to Rs. 138 crore in 2019-20
THE NATIONAL YOUNG LEADERS PROGRAMME This programme was meant to harness the energy of the youth towards nation building; it received a paltry Rs. 12 crore this year. The sum is not nearly enough to reach even a fraction of the 243 million adolescents (aged 10 to 19) in India.
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SOCIAL JUSTICE
SC AND OBC The Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment’s budget has only been increased by a paltry sum of COMMUNITIES Rs. 50 crore - from Rs. 7750 crore to 7800 crore (BE 2019-20).
SCHEME ALLOCATION IN BUDGET 2019-20
DISCARDED PROGRAMMES WITH NO Self Employment Scheme for Rehabilitation of Rs 0 ALLOCATIONS Manual Scavengers
National Scheduled Castes Finance and Rs 0 Development Corporation
National Safai Karamcharis Finance and Rs 0 Development Corporation
Credit Guarantee Fund for SCs Rs 0
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National Backward Classes Finance and Rs 0 Development Corporation
Scheme for Transgender Persons Rs 0
Integrated Programme for Rehabilitation of Beggars Rs 0
NO SUPPORT TO The NDA government has stopped assistance to Voluntary Organisations working for the welfare of VOLUNTARY SCs, OBCs, the Aged, and for providing Social Defense Services. ORGANISATIONS
1. Allocation for National Fellowship for Other Backward Classes and Economically Backward Classes reduced from Rs 100 crore in BE 2018-19 to Rs 30 crore in BE 2019-20. This is a 70% EDUCATION OF SC AND reduction. BACKWARD CLASSES HIT 2. Allocations for Post Matric Scholarships for Backward Classes has gone down from Rs 1100 crore in the previous budget to Rs 909.1 crore.
3. Post-Matric Scholarships for SCs are at a three year low of Rs 2926 crore; 14% below that spent in 2017-18 and 50% lower than RE 2018-19’s Rs 6000 crore.
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SCHEME 2018-19 2019-20 % (BE)* (BE)* DECLINE
692 530 23.4% Post-Matric Scholarship for Minorities
MINORITIES FACE
REDUCED ALLOCATIONS National Minorities Development and Finance 165.02 60 64% FROM PREVIOUS Corporation BUDGET
Maulana Azad Education Foundation 125.01 70 44%
Outlay on Welfare of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled 150.03 54.01 64% Tribes, Other Backward Classes and Minorities
1. The Modi Government’s Ministry of Environments, Forests and Climate Change drafted new rules, which dilute the rights of Adivasis and other forest dwellers to independently decide how their TRIBALS traditional forestlands are to be used.
2. The new rules give the forest bureaucracy the power to grow plantations on the traditional lands of Adivasis and other forest dweller without their prior consent or even consultation in most cases.
3. The government’s scheme to provide a Minimum Support Price for minor forest produce was a total non-starter. The government is now attempting to salvage the scheme for electoral gains.
4. Almost none of the funds allocated for the Tribal Sub Plan between 2014 and 2018 were utilised towards the purpose of the plan. Nearly all the funds have been spent on regional exploration, detailed drilling, and conservation safety.
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5. Allocations to the Vanbandhu Kalyan Yojana have been reduced by Rs. 14.02 crore – from Rs. 420.02 crore in the previous budget to Rs 406 crore in the present one.
6. There have been no allocations for the National Commission for Denotified Tribes.
PRADHAN MANTRI SHRAM-YOGI MAANDHAN
1. The new pension for workers is not mentioned in either the expenditure budget of the Department of Financial Services, nor does it feature in the Centre’s budget outlay.
2. In his budget speech, Interim FM Piyush Goyal, said that an allocation of Rs. 500 crore would be made towards providing pension benefits to 10 crore workers. LOW ALLOCATION FOR UNORGANISED a. The allocation to Atal Pension Yojana is Rs. 205 crore rupees, the additional Rs 295 crore is still WORKERS missing (assuming that the government just plans to rebrand this already existing scheme)
b. Even the assumed allocation of Rs. 500 crore is abysmally low. at a monthly contribution size between Rs. 100 and Rs. 55, the average contribution would be Rs. 77.5, which needs to be contributed by the government too
c. At an annual spend of Rs. 930, the government would be able to cover roughly 54 lakh people assuming a Rs 0 spend on administration. This is a comically low allocation.
1. Since 2010, 97% of all of cow-related violence took place under the Modi government, i.e., post ATROCITIES AGAINST 2014; 86% of the people killed were Muslims. MINORITIES 2. Most of this violence has occurred in BJP rules states: Haryana and UP top the list followed by Gujarat.
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TARGETING OF SC/ST STUDENTS BY THE CENTRE After 2014, the University Grant Commission (UGC), at the behest of the Ministry of Human Resource Development sent circulars to universities demanding details of students belonging to
certain sections of society – Adivasis, Dalits, Muslim minorities along with their photographs and details of the courses they were studying. This is blatant violation of the privacy of the students and an indication of the government profiling students in educational institutions.
SC/ST FACE CENTRE REDUCES RESERVATION SC/STS AND OBCS IN FACULTY POSITIONS MISMANAGED REFORM The MHRD has accepted a proposal of the UGC to calculate reservation in teaching posts at all ATTEMPTS Central Universities department-wise. Currently, it is decided on the basis the number of posts available at the University. In practice, this lowers the chance of positions being reserved as some departments would have only one vacancy.
POOR BUDGET ALLOCATION 1. In the 2019-20 Interim Budget, the Modi government allotted just Rs. 39.87 crore for five national MANUAL SCAVENGERS commissions including the National Commission for Safai Karamchari’s, the National Commission for Backward Castes, and the National Commission for Backward Classes. Just Rs. 9 crore has been set aside for the National Commission for Safai Karamcharis. 2. Declining allocations for the Self Employment Scheme for Rehabilitation of Manual Scavengers (SRMS). The scheme is run by the National Safai Karamcharis Finance and Development Corporation. Data reveals that allocations for the scheme have been declining. The scheme received Rs. 448 crore in 2014-15, 470 crore in 2015-16, and then the allocation alarmingly fell to Rs 10 crore in 2016-17 and Rs 5 crore in 2017-18. No expenditure was incurred on the scheme between 2014-15 and 2016-17.
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HOUSING, URBAN AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
DEENDAYAL ANTYODAYA YOJANA-NATIONAL URBAN LIVELIHOODS MISSION (DAY-NULM)
Placement of only 4.72 lakh youth in almost the entire period of Modi government.
PRADHAN MANTRI AWAS YOJANA
The government set the ambitious target of building more than four crore new houses by 2022.
1. One crore rural houses to be built by March 2019. But 69 lakh rural houses, 40% of targets still to FAILED be met. SCHEMES/PROGRAMMES 2. 35% of the houses not complete even after two years of being sanctioned.
3. Progress in urban areas is slowing, only 12.4 lakh houses built till December 2018. 4. The inclusion of Middle-Income Groups in the PMAY has shifted money and attention away from the housing needs of EWS and LIG groups.
AMRUT 1. With one more year to meet the target, only 20% of the total projects have been completed. 2. Only 3% of the total funds approved have been utilised. 3. States such as Bihar and Assam have not been able to complete even one project (as of January 11, 2019).
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UJJWALA Consumers (BPL women) are not returning for a refill of the free cylinder since concessions do not apply if the security deposit has been waived. Consumers: 10.2% growth in 2015-16 to 16.2% in 2016-17 Consumption: 9% in 2015-16 to 9.8% in 2016-17 CRISIL Study: 86% beneficiaries state that they had not shifted from biomass to LPG because the price of installing a connection was too high. Almost the same number – 83% – said the price of refills was too high.
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INFRASTRUCTURE
1. BJP has been constructing 27 km of roads every day since 2017-18, which is much lower than the target of 45 km/day for the current fiscal year. It also counts every lane kilometre rather than overall ROADS: INTERIM BUDGET road kilometer to inflate its road construction statistics. , was not mentioned by the Finance Minister 2. Bharatmala, the government’s signature programme in his Interim Budget speech signaling that the targets aimed for were damaging and unrealistic. 3. About three-fourths of the NH network are still two lanes or less.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DECREASE IN FINANCIAL YEAR 2019-20 a. Budget of Rs. 1.59 trillion allocated for Indian Railways for the financial year 2019-20. b. This is over 8.2 per cent compared to Rs 1.46 trillion that the government had proposed in last . year’s Budget However, the 2017-18 budget only resulted in 1.16 trillion rupees invested, with a substantial gap RAILWAYS: INTERIM between allocation and investment. BUDGET c. This target is totally unrealistic and unlikely to be spent, which is a sure sign of this being another of the BJP’s blatant electioneering tactics.
TRACK RENEWAL The average length of track renewal was 3,357 kms a year during UPA-2 while it is only 3,027 kms a year during the first four years of the current BJP government. The BJP had promised an agri-rail network but there has hardly been any progress on this front.
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1.The government claims 25 states have electrified all households, but the 100% electrification claims are based on slashed targets. 2. By the time that the BJP announced its electrification programme in 2014, 97% of India’s villages already had an electricity connection.
3. The UPA government had already connected 52,611 and 80,189 villages to the grid between 2004- 2014 during UPA 1 and UPA 2 respectively. a. This was done through the Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana to achieve a total of 1,32,800 electrified villages. Average rate of electrification was 13,280 per year. ELECTRIFICATION b. The Modi government added just 18,374 villages through the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana. Average rate of electrification is 4,593.5 per year. 4. Allocations have been falling for key programmes a. Government of India had launched Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana-Saubhagya. The scheme envisaged providing last mile connectivity and electricity connections to all the remaining un-electrified households in rural areas by March 31, 2019. (Originally the deadline was set for December 31, 2018), b. The Saubhagya Scheme was started in 2017. It is barely 2 years old and the scheme has seen no allocation for the interim period. c. In the state of UP, 33% households do not have electricity while 40% of those have denied taking free electricity under the government scheme. d. Under the UDAY Scheme, state governments were to take over 75 per cent of the utilities’ debts and include it in their fiscal deficit calculations. This scheme has been a failure with average aggregate technical and commercial losses across the country at 25.41% (as of October 26, 2018).
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ALLOCATIONS
SCHEMES 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2019-2020 (RE) (BE) (ACTUALS) (RE) (BE)
Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar 1550 2750 1463.95 2750.00 No allocation Yojana - Saubhagya (R)
Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana - Saubhagya 450 950 89.38 119.35 No allocation Urban
UDAY- Financial Debt 0.01 No allocation restructuring DISCOMS
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ECONOMY
India attained double digit growth under UPA in the 2007-08 (10.23%) and 2010-11 (10.78%) Fiscal Years. This is a feat that the BJP has not been able to achieve.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) UPA maintained an average GDP growth rate of 8.03% (UPA 1 - 8.37 %, UPA II - 7.69 %) whilst the Modi government has only achieved a 7.35 % GDP growth rate.
The high growth rate achieved by the UPA is even more impressive in light of the twin issues of high oil prices and an unfavorable global economy post the 2008 recession. The Modi government has been unable to convert the windfall gained by the steep drop in oil prices into economic growth and the average growth rate achieved by the BJP is disappointing in light of favorable conditions.
OIL PRICES INFLATION 1. As of 23rd May 2018, oil prices in the four metros witnessed the highest level they have been at under Retail inflation in the Modi government. (Petrol stood at Rs. 76.87/litre in Delhi; Diesel was priced at Rs. 68.08/litre in December 2017 at 17- Delhi). month high of 5.21%, 2. Falling Global Prices saw no transfer of benefits driven by rising fuel and As opposed to passing the benefits of low prices to consumers, the Centre hiked excise duties on petrol oil prices and diesel over 9 times. It made a token cut in excise duty by Rs 2 in October 2017.
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3. Government has falsely blamed states for charging high VAT. Between 2013-14 and 2016-17 revenue mobilisation from sales tax/VAT of all the states together increased by 30%. The nominal increase in excise duties for the same period was 257%. 4. Budget 2018-19 decisions to cost states Rs 12,000 Crore. The Budget for 2018-19 offered a cumulative Rs.2/litre cut in excise duty on diesel and petrol. However it hiked the road and infrastructure cess from Rs. 6/litre to Rs. 8/litre. Therefore, the tax paid by all consumers remain the same. Since the Centre need not share cess with states, the states stand to lose Rs 12,000 crore
Indicator 2011-12 (UPA 2) 2016-17 (NDA)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 34.31% of GDP (investment (measures the level of investment in to GDP ratio) 28.53% of GDP the economy (capital expenditure on machinery, equipment and dwellings)
Gross Domestic Savings 34.65% of GDP 29.98% of GDP
DECLINING GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON THE DECLINE: INVESTMENTS
1. State Governments: For Q4 FY18, a 7.1% contraction in capital spending of a sample of 10 state governments (Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh) was observed. 2. Central Government: 58% year-on-year decline in capital spending for Q4 FY18.
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3. New Project Announcements seeing a fall: • As per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the value of new project announcements in the quarter ending in June 2018 dropped 33.4% in comparison to the previous quarter • IIFL Securities’ India Economy Report also noted a 13% year-on-year (four quarters ending in June 2018) fall in new project announcements for the quarter ending June 2018 • Further, as per the April 2018 Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS) by the RBI, which looks at a sample of manufacturing firms every quarter (released with a lag), capacity utilisation is only 74%, providing little incentive for companies to invest in new capacity Stalling rate in projects: As of the quarter ending March 2018, 11.4% of all projects are stalled and 24% of all private sector projects remain stalled
1. Fiscal deficit FY 2017- 18 is 3.5% against target of 3.2%. Despite “disinvestment” target having been exceeded; the Finance Minister failed to meet his target. FISCAL DEFICIT 2. The government has relaxed its fiscal deficit target for FY 2018-19 from 3% to 3.3%.
3. Rising oil prices: Global oil prices had been falling rapidly from 105 USD/barrel in 2013-14 to a 11- year low of 26 USD/barrel in January 2016. Despite this, excise duties on petrol were hiked 9 times before a 2 rupee/litre cut in October 2017. This gave the government the room to stay on its path of fiscal responsibility. With oil prices rising, the government will see a hit on its revenue, as excise duties will have to be brought down.
AICC Research Department Page 50 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP
EXPORTS AND 1. Growth in merchandise exports was 4.7% in 2013-14, (-1.3%) in 2014-15, (-15%) in 2015-16.
TRADE DEFICIT 2. Merchandise Trade stood at 42% of GDP in 2013 and fell to 27.5% of GDP in 2016.
3. India’s Merchandise Trade Deficit of USD 157 Billion in 2017-18 was the widest in 5 years.
MANUFACTURING 1. In November 2017, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth registered a 25-month high of 8.4%, with manufacturing growing at 10.2%. This high was because of the low base of 5.7% in November 2016, which was caused due to demonetisation and change in base year.
2. In June 2017, India’s IIP contracted by 0.2%; its first fall into negative territory since June 2013.
3. A comparison of the 7% growth in manufacturing in the July-September quarter with a 2.2% year-on- year growth in the IIP for the same quarter reflects a worrying trend. (The IIP measures the production volumes while the GDP calculation measures the value addition taking place in the economy. Volume increase is outpaced by value of production.)
AICC Research Department Page 51 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP
REFERENCES ECONOMY https://www.businesstoday.in/budget-2019/budget-2019-who-managed-indian-economy-better---modi-or-manmohan/story/315860.html https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS?locations=IN&name_desc=true https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gross-domestic-savings-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/value-of-new-project-announcements-down-33-4-in-june-quarter-cmie- 118072700060_1.html https://www.livemint.com/Industry/bWDpfF6VtAtYLMx9PfGZcI/Fresh-investments-in-India-point-to-modest-recovery.html
INFRASTRUCTURE https://www.indiatoday.in/4-years-of-modi-government/story/after-4-years-here-are-the-promises-modi-govt-could-not-keep-1242120-2018-05- 26 https://scroll.in/article/913185/the-modi-years-do-more-indians-have-access-to-electricity https://factly.in/fact-checking-government-claims-over-railway-track-development/ https://indianexpress.com/article/india/four-years-of-modi-government-railways-piyush-goyal-5187436/ https://indianexpress.com/article/india/train-18-breakdown-vande-bharat-express-engine-failure-5586740/ https://www.crisil.com/en/home/our-analysis/reports/2017/09/sector-report-roads-and-highways.html https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/nda-pips-upa-ii-in-building-roads-but-most-are-2-lanes/articleshow/66112824.cms https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/pm-modis-failed-projects-and-lies-the-saga-continues https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/india-spends-record-18-billion-to-develop-roads-as-polls-loom#gs.3asoxs https://www.outlookindia.com/magazine/story/modinomics-how-has-modi-regime-fared-on-the-economy-its-time-for-an-audit/300969 https://www.thehindu.com/business/budget/interim-budget-2019-railways-gets-158-lakh-cr-highest-ever-for-national- transporter/article26148573.ece https://www.business-standard.com/article/interim-budget-2019/interim-budget-2019-railways-capex-at-all-time-high-of-rs-1-59-trillion- 119020100628_1.html https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/budget/india-fastest-highway-developer-in-world-fm/article26148354.ece https://www.business-standard.com/article/interim-budget-2019/interim-budget-2019-road-construction-per-day-60-less-than-targeted- 119020100716_1.html
HOUSING, URBAN AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT https://scroll.in/article/913188/the-modi-years-how-close-is-india-to-affordable-housing-for-all https://scroll.in/article/911637/data-analysis-governments-flagship-schemes-for-urban-development-have-fallen-far-short-of-targets https://www.newsclick.in/fact-check-modi-lying-about-houses-built-under-pmay AICC Research Department Page 52 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/energy/pmuy-successful-in-terms-of-number-but-is-it-the-same-with-intent--60701 https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/kozhikode/city-fails-to-make-the-cut-in-amrut-implementation/article26433039.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/with-a-year-to-go-for-amrut-just-20-of-urban-facelift-projects-complete/article25972963.ece https://www.deccanherald.com/national/only-275l-jobs-45-years-modi-719000.html
SOCIAL JUSTICE https://www.newsclick.in/modis-forward-quota-insult-dr-ambedkar https://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2018/11/5-budget-cuts-modi-govt-made-thats-hit-students-from-marginalised-communities/ https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/india https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/modi-govt-has-done-little-on-religious-violence-us-commission/article23686681.ece
JOBS (JOBS, YOUTH, MSME, SKILLING) https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english/india+press+agency-epaper-indpres/modi+government+failed+to+breathe+life+into+msmes- newsid-94896146 https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-february-jobless-rate-climbed-to-7-2-cmie-1551794593776.html https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/jobs-and-careers/story/unemployment-growing-concern-indian-students-1384978-2018-11-09 http://datatopics.worldbank.org/jobs/country/india https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-unemployment-rate-highest-since-2016-report-1471150-2019-03-06 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/established-nearly-1-94-lakh-projects-provided-jobs-to-over-14-75-lakh-in-four-years- kvic/articleshow/64343207.cms?from=mdr https://www.newsclick.in/modis-failures-job-creation-schemes-fail-despite-huge-funding https://caravanmagazine.in/government/policy-narendra-modi-job-schemes-unemployment-labour https://www.zed.org.in https://www.newsclick.in/modis-failures-skill-development-disaster https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/english/z+business-epaper-zbusnes/cabinet+approves+continuation+of+umbrella+scheme+for+youth- newsid-105357199 https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/mudra-scheme-is-modi-mission-turning-into-a-mess/story/314952.html
BANKING https://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/2019/02/14/Is-the-worst-over-for-India-banks.html https://scroll.in/article/914452/the-modi-years-have-banking-services-become-more-accessible-for-indians https://www.livemint.com/Industry/Ff29jhSKgcOxZkjkipHY5K/Govt-withdraws-FRDI-Bill-from-Lok-Sabha.html https://www.livemint.com/industry/banking/12-psu-banks-to-get-rs-48-000-more-in-fy19-as-part-of-bank-recapitalisation-plan-
AICC Research Department Page 53 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP
1550661562178.html https://www.livemint.com/Industry/Jr7oKMh0gv0vxdNiVcxumN/Why-govt-is-upping-the-ante-on-PSU-bank-recapitalisation-pla.html https://www.livemint.com/Industry/bNqRJW1PQsvgH8mWHWYIEI/Govt-to-infuse-Rs42000-crore-in-PSU-banks-by-March-end.html RBI Annual Reports https://www.mudra.org.in/Home/ShowPDF http://164.100.47.190/loksabhaquestions/annex/16/AU1876.pdf http://164.100.47.5/qsearch/QResult.aspx
ENVIRONMENT & DISASTER MANAGEMENT https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/how-effective-is-india-s-disaster-management-authority--41415 https://thewire.in/environment/heavy-flooding-casualties-raise-questions-indias-disaster-preparedness https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/forests/is-pm-modi-really-a-champion-of-the-earth--61739
SANITATION & WATER https://www.newsclick.in/modis-most-tom-tommed-swachh-bharat-mission-failure https://www.downtoearth.org.in/coverage/waste/india-will-soon-stop-defecating-outdoors-but-does-that-end-our-big-sanitation-problem-61752 https://www.indiaspend.com/national-rural-drinking-water-programme-failed-to-achieve-targets-government-auditor-heres-why/ https://www.indiaspend.com/despite-improvement-india-still-has-most-people-without-close-access-to-clean-water-88706/
WOMEN https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-ranks-108th-in-wef-gender-gap-index-2018/articleshow/67145220.cms https://www.firstpost.com/india/indias-female-workforce-participation-stands-at-24-motherhood-gender-inequality-in-household-work-to- blame-4892161.html http://www.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2017/4/women-in-politics-2017-map
HEALTH https://www.indiatoday.in/business/union-budget-2019/story/interim-budget-2019-rs-61-398-crore-allocated-for-health-sector-ayushman- bharat-gets-rs-6-400-crore-1444725-2019-02-01 https://www.indiatoday.in/business/union-budget-2019/story/interim-budget-2019-the-math-just-doesn-t-add-up-on-healthcare-1444395-2019- 02-01 https://scroll.in/article/908398/the-modi-years-do-indians-stand-to-benefit-from-the-health-insurance-push
AICC Research Department Page 54 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP
EDUCATION https://scroll.in/article/909667/the-modi-years-what-have-school-children-gained-in-the-last-five-years https://www.indiaspend.com/what-budget-2019-can-do-to-raise-indias-plummeting-quality-of-school-education/ http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=187952 https://indianexpress.com/article/education/education-budget-2019-analysis-disappointing-say-stakeholders-5564719/
AGRICULTURE https://www.bloombergquint.com/union-budget-2019/144-hike-in-budget-allocation-for-agriculture-isnt-enough-to-quell-farm- unrest#gs.2c55ua https://www.prsindia.org/report-summaries/economic-survey-2017-18 https://www.counterview.net/2018/05/rural-wage-growth-down-from-84-under.html https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-farm-exports-down-46-by-volume-over-50-by-value-in-apr-dec-2018- 119021101087_1.html https://www.indiaspend.com/farm-spending-doubles-over-past-5-years-but-budget-will-have-to-go-beyond-money-say-experts/ https://www.livemint.com/industry/agriculture/how-central-government-s-minimum-support-price-failed-marginal-farmers- 1551031226482.html https://factly.in/fact-check-in-whose-tenure-did-msp-increase-by-a-greater-percentage/ https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/explained-why-farmers-are-angry-in-india-s-fastest-growing-farm-economy- 118113000153_1.html
DEFENCE https://www.dailyo.in/politics/budget-2019-defence-budget-2019-armed-forces-narendra-modi-bjp-piyush-goyal-arun-jaitley- security/story/1/29249.html https://www.rediff.com/news/special/what-ails-modi-regimes-defence-purchases-policy/20190109.htm https://factly.in/fact-check-has-there-been-a-considerable-increase-in-defence-sector-expenditure-during-the-upa/ https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/heres-how-to-fix-indias-defence-budget-more-allocation-fewer- soldiers/articleshow/62601270.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/defence-spending-slips-when-nda-is-in-power-rs-11595-crore- unspent/articleshow/51216838.cms?from=mdr https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-is-rafale-deal-controversy-all-you-need-to-know-1810706 INTERNAL SECURITY https://thewire.in/government/narendra-modi-alok-verma-cbi
AICC Research Department Page 55 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/news/india/mha-empowers-10-agencies-to-intercept-all-computer-data-opposition-slams-modi- government/articleshow/67197808.cms https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/kashmir-64-rise-in-terror-incidents-in-bjp-pdp-ruled-j-k-shows-data- 118062000117_1.html http://www.nipfp.org.in/blog/2018/02/21/cess-collection-and-spending-brief-review-basis-union-budget-2018-19/ http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456 https://thewire.in/220973/agriculture-minimum-export-price-budget-2018/" https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/poor-msp-growth-led-to-farm-distress-says-crisil/article9885614.ece https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/farm-loan-waiver-scheme-has-failed-cong/articleshow/62656742.cms http://www.firstpost.com/business/uttar-pradesh-farm-loan-waiver-19-paise-writeoff-is-a-cruel-joke-govt-needs-to-explain-the-math- 4047795.html https://www.counterview.net/2018/02/govt-of-indias-pm-crop-insurance-thrust.html https://www.firstpost.com/india/mandsaur-farmers-protest-one-killed-four-injured-after-police-firing-in-madhya-pradesh-3523001.html http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/sugarcane-farmers-stir-turns-violent-in-ahmednagar/article20459838.ece http://niti.gov.in/content/infant-mortality-rate-imr-1000-live-births http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/193994/WHO_RHR_15.23_eng.pdf;jsessionid=69C67750EB93A33B3964B6526C11EB3B?sequ ence=1 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-records-5-7-dip-in-maternal-mortality-ratio-since-2009/articleshow/52211202.cms https://www.firstpost.com/india/india-has-one-of-the-smallest-health-budgets-globally-but-highest-mmr-in-south-east-asia-who-report- 3462560.html https://everylifecounts.ndtv.com/childhood-wasting-india-rise-heres-done-17220 https://everylifecounts.ndtv.com/childhood-wasting- india-rise-heres-done-17220 https://thewire.in/featured/government-planning-dismantle-icds-programme https://thewire.in/health/the-governments-previous-health-insurance-schemes-have-failed-why-should-the-new-one-work https://thewire.in/economy/budget-2018-modi-government-health-announcement https://newsclick.in/anganwadi-workers-angry-budget http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2017/jun/24/govts-cheap-medicine-scheme-falls-sick-1620516.html https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/ima-slams-pms-talk-of-nexus-with-pharma-cos-opposes-nmc-bill/articleshow/63965095.cms https://www.firstpost.com/india/narendra-modis-mudra-scheme-fails-to-attract-women-seeking-loans-for-small-business-despite-incentives- 4361263.html https://www.firstpost.com/india/narendra-modis-mudra-scheme-fails-to-attract-women-seeking-loans-for-small-business-despite-incentives- 4361263.html https://www.dailyo.in/politics/women-safety-india-nirbhaya-rohtak-rape-modi-government/story/1/17275.html https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/5-years-after-nirbhaya-funds-over-3000-crores-for-womens-safety-unused-1811281
AICC Research Department Page 56 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/68000-cases-of-rape-in-200911-only-16000-convicted/article4374968.ece http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-slips-21-slots-occupy-108th-rank-on-wef-gender-gap-index-2017/article19966894.ece http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/blogs/blog-datadelve/article5275487.ece https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-ranks-120th-among-131-nations-in-women-workforce-says-world-bank-report/story- Q5AVD5aRlmLHA1RAFpnZuJ.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/static/indian-women-leaving-workforce/index.html http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-at-148th-in-number-of-women-mps/article17471164.ece http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2017/mar/17/india-ranks-148-in-representation-of-women-in-government-1582359.html http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/more-joblessness-ilo-sees-india-s-unemployment-rate-rising-to-3-5-in-2018- 118012300389_1.html http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/mHHUu5H3S0PiCu59WAlY0O/The-republic-of-statistical-scramble.html http://indianexpress.com/article/india/7-28-crore-people-have-become-self-employed-under-the-centres-mudra-loan-scheme-amit-shah- 4747544/ https://teekhapan.wordpress.com/2017/09/21/mudra-loans-arent-creating-self-employment-opportunities/ https://www.telegraphindia.com/1170518/jsp/frontpage/story_152234.jsp AICC Research Department Analysis of Economic Survey https://www.ndtv.com/business/as-crude-oil-price-touches-80-what-it-means-for-indias-petrol-prices-diesel-prices-1854493 https://www.news18.com/news/india/50-tax-on-fuel-in-india-highest-among-south-asian-countries-1755071.html https://www.firstpost.com/business/petrol-diesel-prices-at-record-high-narendra-modis-lucky-crude-oil-charm-is-gone-welcome-to-the-real- economy-4478119.html http://www.livemint.com/Politics/vlxf4t4L9rJ3ffXSqywhkI/Budget-2018-Govt-revises-fiscal-deficit-target-for-FY19-to.html https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/petrol-diesel-price-rise-saga-explained/articleshow/60525871.cms https://thewire.in/177415/petrol-price-narendra-modi-government/ http://indiabudget.nic.in/vol1_survey.asp https://thewire.in/109891/oil-cost-indian-economy/ http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/states-may-lose-rs-120-bn-in-share-of-central-taxes-over-road-infra-cess- 118021300536_1.html https://www.ndtv.com/business/december-retail-inflation-at-17-month-high-of-5-21-1799346 http://www.macroscan.org/cur/jan18/pdf/Public_Banks.pdf https://thewire.in/communalism/cow-vigilantism-violence-2017-muslims-hate-crime https://countercurrents.org/2018/02/27/150-concerned-citizens-sign-solidarity-statement-supporting-striking-tiss-students/ https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/value-of-new-project-announcements-down-33-4-in-june-quarter-cmie- 118072700060_1.html https://www.livemint.com/Industry/bWDpfF6VtAtYLMx9PfGZcI/Fresh-investments-in-India-point-to-modest-recovery.html
AICC Research Department Page 57 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. An Economy in Deep Trouble
The Modi-Jaitley Legacy A Grim Reality Declining Growth High Inequality
• 73% of wealth generated in 2017-18 went to richest 1% • Poorest 50% saw a 1% increase in wealth
Actual Fiscal Deficit Shortfall in Investments and Savings
• 1.6 lakh cr tax revenue shortfall (FY18-19) • Fiscal deficit likely to be 3.9% (or more) of GDP
2 A Jobs Crisis Job loss government 45-year high unemployment • 1.1. crore jobs lost in 2018 • 92% female, 82% male workers earn less than Rs 10000 per month • 35 lakh people lost their jobs due to demonetisation • Male workforce shrank for the first time in 25 years • Demonetisation and GST contributed to worsening unemployment scenario 3 Rural Economy in Distress Stagnant Rural Wages Between 2004 and Agri growth 3.84% 2013 (UPA per annum Government) Between 2014 and Agri growth 1.88% 2018 (BJP per annum Government)
Worst Farm Price Slump in 18 Years
4 A Consumption Slowdown
Decline in Household Savings
Decline in Private Consumption
5 A Stalled Investment Cycle Fewer Factories Built Investment and Manufacturing Investment Declined
Total No. of Factories Built per Year (Avg)
Total No. of Factories Built
15023
5249 3430
UPA 1 UPA 2 NDA Value of New Project Announcements Continue To Fall Decline in Fresh Investments
6 A Banking Sector in Crisis Four Fold Rise in Banking Frauds Sharp Rise in NPAs Post 2015 No. of Frauds A I C Banking Frauds • NBFC Crisis is unfolding • Mudra NPAs spiked 53% in FY18-19
41168 23934 19455 18699 10171 4306 4639 4693 5076 5917
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Wilful Defaults Rise
Sluggish Credit Growth
7 External Sector Challenges Record High Trade Deficit Share of Exports at a 14-year Low
Devaluing Rupee Foreign Investment Inflows
NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT INFLOWS (MAY 2014-NOV 2018) 15.000
10.000
5.000 USD USD Million 0
-5.000 Jul.17 Jul.16 Jul.14 Jul.18 Jul.15 Jän.18 Jän.17 Jän.16 Jän.15 8 Sep.17 Sep.16 Sep.14 Sep.18 Sep.15 Mai.14 Mai.18 Mai.15 Mai.17 Mai.16 Mär.18 Mär.17 Mär.16 Mär.15 Nov.17 Nov.16 Nov.14 Nov.18 Nov.15 The Congress Alternative
9