Statement issued by Shri P. Chidambaram, Shri Rajeev Gowda and Shri Salman Soz An Economy in Deep Trouble: The Modi-Jaitley Legacy As it becomes evident that the Modi government is on its way out, the BJP’s desperation has visibly grown. With each passing day, as Mr Modi indulges in vile rhetoric, the Finance Minister blogs poor attempts at rationalising that language. Between the rhetoric and the blogging, this government has forgotten the economy. The next government has a huge task of reviving the economy. Thankfully, the Congress Party is ready to steer the Indian economy out of the Modi-Jaitley slump. The worrying "macro-economic" indicators The Indian economy has entered a disastrous phase of economic slowdown under the Modi-Jaitley jugalbandi reflected by the consistent fall in quarterly growth of real GDP. A massive shortfall of Rs.1.6 lakh crore in the tax revenues would effectively increase the actual fiscal deficit to 3.9%. The economy is expected to slow down further. The Finance Minister has perfected the art of concealing data and projecting doctored information. Contrary to the false narratives of the Modi Government, the poorest Indians have been worst sufferers of the economic mismanagement. Oxfam's Global Inequality report 2018 showed that 73% of the wealth generated in India in 2017-2018 was pocketed by the richest 1% of the Indian populace while the poorest 50% saw a marginal increase of 1% in their wealth over the same period. The “Naukri Vinash” PM Mr. Modi is the first Prime Minister whose legacy will be of a “Job Destroying PM”, built on the two "Tughlaqi Farmans" of Demonetization and Gabbar Singh Tax. In 2018 itself, India lost over 1.1 crore jobs. The leaked NSSO survey reports that the unemployment rate reached a 45-year high of 6.1% in 2017 (nearly tripled from 2012), with the youth being the worst sufferers of the government’s surgical strikes on jobs and the economy. Unemployment for young males (15-29 years) has tripled. Over 88 lakh women lost their jobs in 2018, accounting for over 80% of the total job loss according to the CMIE report. “Suit Boot Sarkar” has crushed the rural economy The BJP’s apathy for the rural economy and agriculture manifests itself in wages, prices, growth, and employment data. Under Modi government, rural wages have stagnated while non-core inflation has grown. Also, we are in the midst of the worst agricultural price slump in 18 years. Agricultural growth has halved in the Modi government (2014-2018) as compared to growth achieved under the UPA government (2004-2013). Additionally, rural casual labour has also seen an almost 30% decline in employment. Key indicators confirm an economic slowdown In almost all high-frequency indicators that measure consumer sentiment (ranging from domestic automobile sales to cement production), the Dr Manmohan Singh led UPA government outperformed the Modi government. The slowdown is confirmed by household savings and private consumption data. Household savings has declined from ~20% in FY14 to ~17% in FY18. Private consumption has also seen a recent decline according to the government’s own reports. Investments have come to a halt Despite their self declared pro-development credentials, PM Modi’s government has stalled India’s investment cycle. Average total investments under this government have seen an 8% decline versus the UPA I and II average. Manufacturing investments follow the same pattern. As a result, the number of new factories built under the Modi government is a mere ~3,400 per year on average. This compares poorly to the average of ~10,000 built in UPA era. Additionally, new project investments have also seen a slump from ~INR 2.8 Trillion in December 2016 to less than ~INR 1 Trillion in December 2018. Banking Sector Crisis The Modi government has witnessed a four-fold rise in banking frauds and wilful defaults. A crisis on the NBFC front has emerged with little response from the BJP government. A select few businesses, often in close association with the Prime Minister, have acted with impunity and led to the current crisis. BJP’s cosying up to the likes of Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi has resulted in a sharp rise in NPAs and a sluggish credit growth, leading to a squeeze in credit for the MSMEs. Weak Exports and Rupee The trade outlook has been negative and portends a weak economy. Foreign investment inflows have been declining. The rupee fell to a historic low of 74/$. Demonetisation and GST broke the back of the economy, leading to a squeeze in exports. At a time of a positive world trade climate, India’s exports (as a percentage of GDP) fell to a 14-year low. The below-par export growth has been accompanied by a sharp rise in imports, leading to a record high trade deficit. The only spectacular achievement of the Modi-Jaitley regime has been squandering a favourable world trade climate. Despite having to contend with a global recession and extraordinarily high fuel prices, UPA delivered high growth rates and an inclusive development model. Modi-Jaitley’s economic model is of “Nationalisation of loss and privatisation of profit”. This model has brought distress to every sector, the only exceptions have been the businesspeople close to the BJP. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP | FAILURES ACROSS SECTORS AICC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AICC Research Department Page 1 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP | FAILURES ACROSS SECTORS TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE AGRICULTURE……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3 EDUCATION……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 8 HEALTH…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12 WOMEN………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16 BANKING………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 20 SANITATION & WATER…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22 ENVIRONMENT AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT……………………………………………………………….. 24 DEFENCE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 27 INTERNAL SECURITY……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29 JOBS (JOBS, YOUTH, MSME, SKILLING…………………………………………………………………………….. 31 SOCIAL JUSTICE………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 38 HOUSING, URBAN AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT………………………………………………………………… 44 INFRASTRUCTURE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 46 ECONOMY…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 54 AICC Research Department Page 2 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP | FAILURES ACROSS SECTORS AGRICULTURE Between 2004 and 2013 (UPA Government) Agri growth 3.84% per annum Between 2014 and 2018 (BJP Government) Agri growth 1.88% per annum OVERALL GROWTH RATE 1. Between 2014 and 2018, the growth rate of agriculture has declined to 1.88% per annum, which is almost half of that achieved under the UPA government at 3.84% from 2004-05 to 2012-13. 2. To double farmer incomes by 2022 as promised by Prime Minister Modi, the agricultural growth rate must be at least 15% over the next three years. 1. Agriculture received a 144 percent rise in allocation in the interim budget. a. Allocation increased from Rs 57,600 crore in the 2018-19 budget estimates to Rs 1,40,764 crore in 2019-20 MINISTRY the interim budget ALLOCATIONS: b. However, the Ministry routinely underspends its allocation, making this nothing more than an ELECTION election gimmick. Actual expenditure was less than budgeted expenditure in all years of the NDA GIMMICKS Government except for 2016-17 2. The Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, a scheme that proposed to give Rs. 2000 thrice a year for a total of Rs. 6000 to small and marginal farmers, was announced. The sum of money given is paltry and will not provide any significant assistance to farmers. AICC Research Department Page 3 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP Research and education, which would have a long-term impact on farmer livelihoods, are clearly not priorities DECREASE IN for the BJP government. RESEARCH AND EDUCATION In 2014-15, the expenditure for the Department of Agriculture Research and Education stood at 19% of the Ministry’s expenditure, a decline of 5.7%. 1.In the 2018-19 Revised Estimates, the spend that the Centre shares with states has fallen by 17.6% from 17,908.92 to 14,756.95. STATES 2. In 2008, UPA announced a farm loan waiver worth Rs 60,000 crore under the Agriculture Debt NEGLECTED Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme, which benefited 3.73 crore farmers. However, the BJP is leaving it up to the states to foot the loan waiver bill, leaving BJP states severely disadvantaged. EXAMPLES: a. Maharashtra: Only 46 lakh famers declared eligible from the 77 lakh applied for loan waiver and only 31 lakh farmers benefitted b. Uttar Pradesh: 4800 of the loans waived were between Re 1 and Rs 100 1.India's agricultural exports were down 46% by volume, over 50% by value in Apr-Dec 2018. PROMOTION OF 2. India’s exports of agricultural products have declined by 19 per cent in the four years – from EXPORTS $39.6 billion in 2013-14 to $32 billion in 2016-17. 3. The import of agricultural and allied products has risen from $14.6 billion in 2013-14 to $24.2 billion in 2016-17. This is a massive 66% hike. AICC Research Department Page 4 Disclaimer - This document is research input for the Indian National Congress and does not represent the official party line. FIVE WASTED YEARS UNDER BJP The BJP is failing to implement the recommendations of the MS Swaminathan Commission, which stated that the cost of cultivation would be based on actual paid out cost, interest on fixed capital, and the imputed value of family labour and rental value of owned land. MSP: BIG In January, there were 19,872 transactions across 18 states, where the price was below the MSP in PROMISES, NO 2018-19.