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Renewable Energy Options for the Industry Sector: Global and Regional Potential Until 2030

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Renewable Energy Options for the Industry Sector: Global and Regional Potential Until 2030 RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS FOR THE INDUSTRY SECTOR: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL POTENTIAL UNTIL 2030 Background to “Renewable Energy in Manufacturing” Technology Roadmap (IRENA, 2014a) BACKGROUND PAPER Copyright © IRENA 2015 Unless otherwise stated, this publication and material featured herein are the property of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and are subject to copyright by IRENA. Material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA and bears a notation that it is subject to copyright (© IRENA), with the year of the copyright. Material contained in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions, including restrictions in relation to any commercial use. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international cooperation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. This report, and other REmap material are available for download through www.irena.org/remap. For further information or to provide feedback, please contact the REmap team at [email protected] Acknowledgements This working paper has benefited from valuable comments provided by the external reviewers Thore Sixten Berntsson (Chalmers University), Yukinobu Hirose and Yuriko Terao (Heat Pump & Thermal Energy Storage Technology Center of Japan), Heinz Kopetz (World Bioenergy Association), Werner Weiss (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Erneurbaure Energie, Institut für Nachhaltige Technologien) and Ernst Worrell (Utrecht University). Zuzana Dobrotkova and Frank Wouters of IRENA also provided valuable feedback. Authors: Deger Saygin, Ruud Kempener, and Dolf Gielen (IRENA) Report citation IRENA (2015), A backgroun d paper to “Renewable Energy in Manufacturing”, March 2015. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. This is a background paper to “Renewable Energy in Manufacturing” (IRENA, 2014a), a technology roadmap developed as part of IRENA’s global renewable energy roadmap, REmap 2030. Disclaimer This publication and the material featured herein are provided “as is”, for informational purposes. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material featured in this publication. Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other, third-party content providers or licensors provides any warranty, including as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose or use of such material, or regarding the non-infringement of third-party rights, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this publication and the material featured therein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Table of Contents List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................. iv Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Options for doubling the share of renewable energy ........................................................................... 8 2.1. Biomass.......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1. Fuel for process heat ............................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2. Feedstock for chemicals and polymers ................................................................................. 9 2.2. Solar thermal ............................................................................................................................... 12 2.3. Heat pumps ................................................................................................................................. 12 2.4. Geothermal.................................................................................................................................. 14 2.5. Potential of renewable energy technologies for industrial electricity use ................................. 14 3. General methodology and the data sources ....................................................................................... 16 3.1. Industrial energy use growth ...................................................................................................... 16 3.2. Production costs of heat generation ........................................................................................... 19 3.3. Estimation of the potential of renewable energy technologies .................................................. 21 4. Potential of renewable technologies for the global industry .............................................................. 25 4.1. Industrial energy use growth ...................................................................................................... 25 4.2. Production costs of heat and materials ...................................................................................... 27 4.3. Potential of renewable energy technologies in the total global industry sector ........................ 32 Realisable technical potential ............................................................................................................. 32 Economic potential .............................................................................................................................. 33 Realisable economic potential ............................................................................................................ 34 Allocation of the realisable economic potential ................................................................................. 36 5. Discussion ............................................................................................................................................ 41 5.1. Data and methodology ................................................................................................................ 41 Uncertainties in industrial energy use projections and heat generation costs due to data issues .... 41 Uncertainties in realisable economic potential estimates .................................................................. 44 5.2. Quantifying the effects of uncertainties over results ................................................................. 46 6. Priority areas for action ....................................................................................................................... 48 References ................................................................................................................................................... 49 List of abbreviations .................................................................................................................................... 60 Annex ........................................................................................................................................................... 62 Appendix A: Technical and economic data used in the analysis ............................................................. 62 Appendix B: Realisable technical potential ............................................................................................. 66 Iron and steel sector ............................................................................................................................ 66 Chemical and petrochemical sector .................................................................................................... 67 Process heat .................................................................................................................................... 67 Feedstock......................................................................................................................................... 68 Non-ferrous metals sector .................................................................................................................. 69 Non-metallic minerals sector .............................................................................................................. 70 Food and tobacco sector ....................................................................................................................
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