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Global Energy Prospects and Their Implications for Energy Security & Sustainable Development

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Global Energy Prospects and Their Implications for Energy Security & Sustainable Development Global energy prospects and their implications for energy security & sustainable development Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency OECD, Paris, 24 February 2020 IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Perspectives from energy history Global energy demand 1919 1950 1974 2000 2018 1 500 Mtoe 14 300 Mtoe 100% 50% 0% Wood Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Modern renewables The last century has witnessed multiple transitions to and from different fuels and technologies The challenge today is one of scale: global energy use is ten times higher than in 1919…. and growing IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Oil has been immune to recent turmoil 100 bbl Iran sanctions Attack on Abqaiq–Khurais: Libya 80 Exports fall to multi-decade low Half of Saudi production Renewed conflict cuts Brent $US/ Brent temporarily shut down oil output again Min-Max band $52-$75 60 Venezuela: Soleimani's death: Plummeting oil production Geopolitical tensions goes below 1 mb/d 40 20 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Well-supplied oil markets, largely thanks to US shale, have traded in a remarkably narrow band despite the range of supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties over the last year IEA 2020. All rights reserved. The 20-year switch Change in global oil and electricity consumption, 20182000 - 20402018 Mtoe 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 Oil Electricity When consumers needed more energy in the past, they traditionally turned to oil In the future, they turn first to electricity IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Natural gas turns to Asia Growth in gas demand and supply in selected Asian markets, 2018-2040 bcm 400 OtherPipeline LNGIndustry 300 DemandPowerDomestic growth 200 100 China Southeast India Asia Developing economies in Asia account for half of global growth in gas demand, with industrial consumers taking the largest share, and this provides the spur for almost all the growth in gas trade, led by LNG IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Solar is the star Global power capacity by source in the Stated Policies Scenario Solar PV 3 000 GW Gas Coal 2 000 Wind Hydro 1 000 Nuclear 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Renewables provide three-quarters of the growth in electricity supply to 2040 under stated policies but much more is needed: in Sustainable Development Scenario wind and solar capacity in 2040 is 50% higher IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Africa emerges as a key driver for global energy markets Total population by region Africa’s role in global energy growth, 2018-40 201820232040 Oil demand Natural gas demand Renewables generation 2 /d 4 400 3 000 bcm TWh mb Africa 1.5 3 300 1 500 Case Billion people 1 2 200 1 000 0.5 1 100 500 China India Africa India Africa China Middle China Middle AfricaIndia China India Africa European East East Union With rapidly rising population and a major switch away from the traditional use of biomass, Africa emerges as a major source of global growth for oil, natural gas and renewables IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Defying expectations, global CO2 emissions did not rise in 2019 Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by region, 2018-2019 2 400 Mt CO 200 0 -200 European Union United States Japan Rest of World New IEA data show global CO2 emissions were unchanged at 33 gigatonnes in 2019, even as the world economy expanded by 2.9%, mainly due to lower emissions from electricity generation IEA 2020. All rights reserved. No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source Current Trends Gt CO2 40 Stated Policies Scenario Industrial electric motors Buildings Power Light industry Cars & trucks Efficiency Heavy industry 30 Air conditioners Aviation and shipping Wind Solar PV Biofuels transport Renewables Other renewables power Other renewables end-uses 20 Hydro Nuclear Fuel switch incl. hydrogen Electric vehicles Fuel switch, CCUS CCUS power CCUS industry and other Behavioural change 10 Resource efficiency Sustainable Development Scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach, and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Conclusions • The energy sector is adjusting to new pressures, but the overall response remains far from adequate in view of the energy security & environmental threats the world faces • While solar, wind, storage & digital technologies are transforming the electricity sector, legacy issues surrounding existing infrastructure also need to be tackled • Investment in energy efficiency, renewables and more flexible energy systems must significantly accelerate • The oil & gas industry is critical for some key capital-intensive technologies to reach maturity, including CCUS, low-carbon hydrogen, biofuels, and offshore wind • The IEA is convening, leading & supporting a Grand Coalition – made up of govts, industry & civil society – to accelerate global energy transitions that underpin energy security & economic growth IEA 2020. All rights reserved. IEA 2020. All rights reserved. .
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