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May 2014

Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural

Prepared by Association of Public and -grant Universities Board on Natural Resources Board on Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate

May 2014

Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources

Prepared by Association of Public and Land-grant Universities Board on Natural Resources Board on Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate About this Publication To reference this publication, please use the following citation:

Association of Public and Land-grant Universities, Board on Natural Resources and Board on Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate, "Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources," May 2014. An electronic version of this publication is available here: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/47169

For more information about this publication, contact:

Dan Edge [email protected] Wendy Fink [email protected]

Cover photo and document design: Caryn M. Davis, Communications, Oregon State University. Additional images courtesy of Bryan Bernart Photography; Logan Bernart, OSU; Matt Betts, OSU; Dai Crisp, Lumos Winery; Kevin Davis; Terrence E. Davis; Camille Freitag, OSU; Dave Leer, OSU; Kansas Department of Transportation; Marcus Kauffman, Oregon Department of Forestry; Garrett Meigs, OSU; Brenda Miraglia; Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Resources Institute (OFRI); Oregon Natural Resources Education Program (ONREP); OSU College ; OSU News & Communications; USDA Forest Service, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; U.S. Department of ; Wisconsin Department of Transportation; Harold Zald, OSU. Contents 7 Introduction 16 Grand Challenge 1: We need to conserve and manage natural and maintain environmental quality while optimizing renewable productivity to meet increasing human demands for natural resources, particularly with respect to increasing , , and demands. 28 Grand Challenge 2: Water We must restore, protect and conserve watersheds for , , pollution reduction and water security. 38 Grand Challenge 3: We need to understand the impacts of climate change on our environment, including such aspects as disease transmission, air quality, water supply, ecosystems, fire, species survival, and pest risk. Further, we must develop a comprehensive strategy for managing natural resources to adapt to climate changes. 50 Grand Challenge 4: Agriculture We must develop a sustainable, profitable, and environmentally responsible agriculture industry. 52 Grand Challenge 5: Energy We must identify new and alternative sources and improve the efficiency of existing renewable resource-based energy to meet increasing energy demands while reducing the ecological footprint of energy production and consumption. 66 Grand Challenge 6: Education We must maintain and strengthen natural resources education at all levels to have the informed and engaged citizenry, civic leaders, and practicing professionals needed to sustain the natural resources, ecosystems, and ecosystem services of the . 84 Appendix A: Glossary for Science, Education, and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources 86 Appendix B: Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Contributors 88 Appendix C: Crosswalk for priority areas in the NR Roadmap with priorities identified in the ESCOP Science Roadmap for Agriculture

November of 2010, the Agricultural Experiment Station Committee on Organization and Policy (ESCOP) published the Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (Association of Public and Land-grant Universities [APLU] 2010), which identified research priorities forIn agriculture for the next decade. Though the definition of agriculture1 in the report includes natural resources, the focus of the report was primarily agriculture, with natural resources largely treated as an input into agriculture. Because of the lack of emphasis on natural resources in the report, several individuals in the natural resources academic community reacted to the report with disappointment, feeling that another story needed to be told, one with a more natural resources-centric perspective. While there have been many high-level reports and strategic plans written about the topics covered by this report, most have tended to break natural resources into sub-disciplines representing particular resources: atmospheric, coastal, , forests, marine, , water, and others. Although universities frequently segregate these fields through disciplines, the resources themselves are all interrelated and need to be dealt with as a whole. With that in mind, the APLU Board on Natural Resources (BNR) and Board on Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate (BOAC) jointly created the Science, Education, and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources (hereafter NR Roadmap). The BNR represents over 500 university scientists in the fields of ecology, fish and wildlife, forestry, and water resources. The BOAC represents over 250 university scientists in the fields of atmospheric, marine, and coastal sciences. 1 See Appendix A for definitions of commonly used terms. APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 7 The goals of the NR Roadmap are to: ‹‹ Chart a path for natural resources research, education, and outreach direction for public universities for the next 5-10 years; ‹‹ Identify major challenges, knowledge gaps and priorities; ‹‹ Provide guidance for policy makers in strategic planning and investment; ‹‹ Support natural resources agencies, professional societies, and non- governmental organizations in advocating for the use of sound science in natural resources decision-making; and ‹‹ Facilitate the development of interdisciplinary research, education and outreach teams focused on natural resources challenges.

Conceptual Framework

Historians often tie the success of the nation’s land-grant universities to their tripartite mission of education, research, and outreach. Originally created to provide a practical and liberal arts education to average citizens, land-grant universities expanded their mission to include research and outreach with the passage of the Hatch and Smith-Lever Acts. This roadmap attempts to honor the tripartite mission by including education and outreach goals along with research goals. The NR Roadmap is set in the context of the changing nature of funding opportunities and research needs. Calls for more interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary research are now routine among federal agencies funding research. Also routine are calls to include education and outreach goals during research development, not as an afterthought. Although the timeframe for implementation of the NR Roadmap is the next decade, we acknowledge that many of the resources we deal with have ecological and evolutionary processes with broader temporal and spatial scales. This roadmap is framed around the following societal needs to: ‹‹ Optimize renewable resource productivity while maintaining environmental quality; ‹‹ Conserve and manage natural landscapes while addressing increasing human demands for natural resources; ‹‹ Protect, conserve and restore watersheds for biodiversity, water resources, and pollution reduction; ‹‹ Enhance water security globally; ‹‹ Understand the impacts of climate change on environmental processes; ‹‹ Develop a comprehensive strategy for managing natural resources to adapt to climate changes; ‹‹ Create a sustainable, profitable, and environmentally responsible agriculture industry;

8 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources ‹‹ Identify new and alternative renewable energy resources and improve the efficiency of existing renewable resources; ‹‹ Minimize impacts of increasing energy demands on natural resources; ‹‹ Include natural resources in the K-12 education system and improve the scientific literacy of the nation’s citizens; ‹‹ Promote ; and ‹‹ Communicate scientific information to the general public in efficient and effective ways.

The NR Roadmap Process

Following the release of the ESCOP Science Roadmap for Agriculture (APLU 2010) in November of 2010, the BNR executive committee began discussing creation of a natural resources roadmap. On behalf of the BNR, Hal Salwasser, former dean of the College of Forestry at Oregon State University, obtained a grant from USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture to conduct a Delphi survey and write the NR Roadmap based on the results of the survey. The Delphi process utilizes experts in facilitated rounds of questioning that lead to synthesis and general consensus. Given that Dr. Travis Park of Cornell University had helped ESCOP conduct a Delphi survey to gather information for their roadmap, the BNR executive committee chose to contract with him for the NR Roadmap. The BNR also reached out to APLU’s BOAC to gain participation from marine, atmospheric, and climate scientists as well as Sea Grant outreach experts. The BNR and BOAC nominated 118 thought leaders by discipline or area of expertise to participate in the Delphi survey. Experts came from the following fields: atmospheric sciences, climate sciences, economics, energy sciences, fisheries, forestry, marine sciences, rangelands, recreation, water resources, and wildlife. All regions of the United States were represented. Of the 118 individuals nominated, 33 chose not to participate, so the survey results are based on the responses of 78 experts. Participants completed five rounds of Delphi surveys focused on the grand challenges in natural resources. Given that the BNR and BOAC had not produced any previous roadmaps, the starting question for the study was: Preservation, conservation, and use of our natural resources, broadly defined, face many grand challenges in the next five to 10 years. These grand challenges are those which are difficult to solve, yet do have solutions, or at least milestones that mark progress toward solutions. These grand challenges also carry significant social, environmental, and economic impact. Grand challenges involve and stretch the limits of our collective research, extension, and teaching abilities and capacities.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 9 For example, a grand challenge in technology might be "to make economical," or one in global health might be "to create effective single dose vaccines that can be used soon after birth." What are the grand challenges in the research and teaching in and about natural resources over the next 10 years? The first round of questions began on 19 March 2012 and the last round finished on 12 September 2012. The first survey round resulted in 576 responses, which were reduced to 95 items through an inductive analysis of the responses by Dr. Park’s team. In rounds two and three, participants were asked to rate their level of agreement that each item should be considered a grand challenge for natural resources. Based on those responses, the team narrowed the challenge items to 38 for round four. In that round, participants were asked to choose “yes” or “no” as to whether the item should be considered a grand challenge. If they chose “yes,” participants were asked to group the grand challenge into eight general areas of natural resources issues (climate, , energy, water, education, sustainability, agriculture and food, or population). Round four resulted in 18 grand challenge items among the eight areas. The NR Roadmap Advisory Panel, composed of members from both the BNR and BOAC executive committees, reduced that to six categories by combining the three areas of sustainability, land use, and population into a single sustainability area. All three dealt with the impact of humans on natural resources as a direct result of using the natural resources or as an indirect result of degradation of natural resources through pursuit of fulfilling other needs, such as food or energy needs. The final grand challenge areas identified after the Delphi surveys and the NR Roadmap Advisory Panel’s decision to create a single sustainability area were climate change, sustainability, education, energy, water, and agriculture. The challenge statement that emerged on agriculture was “Develop a sustainable, profitable, and environmentally responsible agriculture industry.” Given that ESCOP had produced an entire roadmap dedicated to the science priorities in agriculture, several of which aim to address the above challenge, the NR Roadmap Advisory Panel chose to reference the ESCOP Science Roadmap for Agriculture (APLU 2010) where appropriate rather than writing a separate chapter on the subject. This does not lessen the importance of the agriculture challenge area, but instead points out that the expertise for solving the problems of agriculture as they pertain to natural resources lies largely with those who conduct agricultural science, education, and outreach. Additionally, the NR Roadmap Advisory Panel crosswalked the priorities of both the ESCOP Roadmap (APLU 2010) and the NR Roadmap to look for areas of commonality in solving any of the six grand challenges identified in the NR Roadmap. The NR Roadmap Advisory Panel invited scientists from each of the BNR and BOAC sections to serve as science leaders for each of the grand challenges; 35 scientists wrote the six sections in this roadmap. The Advisory Panel also nominated peer-reviewers for each section and each section received a minimum of two peer reviews. Finally, the Advisory Panel invited six thought leaders to provide

10 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources comprehensive reviews of the entire document. Science leaders and reviewers are identified in Appendix B. The NR Roadmap is divided into five sections, each describing a grand challenge area in natural resources. Each section follows the same format: ‹‹ Framing the Issue — Provides background for the grand challenge, discussing historical, political, social, and/or economic context as needed. ‹‹ Gap Analysis — Examines current capacity and science gaps and identifies specific education and outreach needs for the challenge. ‹‹ Research Needs and Priorities — Identifies needs to conduct the necessary research and prioritizes research areas in order to solve the grand challenge. ‹‹ Expected Outcomes — A short summation of outcomes under two scenarios – status quo versus following the roadmap’s recommendations.

The Six Grand Challenges

Grand Challenge 1: Sustainability We need to conserve and manage natural landscapes and maintain environmental quality while optimizing renewable resource productivity to meet increasing human demands for natural resources, particularly with respect to increasing water, food, and energy demands.

The sustainability of natural resources must be evaluated not only by environmental quality standards, but also in terms of present and future social and economic expectations. Often, sustainable may be used synonymously to represent minimized inputs and idealized environmental quality. This vision of sustainability is often at odds with the reality of economics, a growing population with an increasing standard for quality of , and the necessity to adapt to climate extremes. It is only with a mind towards the future that scientists can begin to analyze today’s resource use patterns and start to compare alternative strategies to meet tomorrow’s increasing natural resource demands. Focal areas for this research are: ‹‹ Coupled Human-Natural Systems — Natural resource analyses must account for interrelated human and natural resource systems by improving the knowledge base of interactive processes between ecosystems and growing human populations. There is also the need to understand the influences of social and economic practices and policies on natural resources.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 11 ‹‹ and Freshwater — Research on adaptive and effective and water management strategies and the role global climate change and demographic changes will play on crucial water and soil resources. ‹‹ Forestlands — Refine sustainable and harvesting operations practices and technologies. ‹‹ Rangelands — Advance knowledge of how ecosystems, socioeconomics, climate, and specific management practices change and interrelate over time. ‹‹ Marine and Coastal Ecosystems — We need to understand: (1) the status and trends of resource abundance and distribution through more accurate, timely assessments; (2) interspecies and habitat-species relationships to support forecasting of resource stability and sustainability; (3) human-use patterns that influence resource stability and sustainability; (4) resiliency and adaptation to a changing climate; and (5) the interactions between coastal and marine operations/use and the environment. We also need to advance the environmental sustainability of ocean energy technologies and develop sustainable fishing practices and technologies.

Grand Challenge 2: Water We must restore, protect and conserve watersheds for biodiversity, water resources, pollution reduction and water security.

Water issues are becoming increasingly complex and require multi-disciplinary science to find cross-cutting solutions. Most of our existing knowledge of human or natural disturbance impacts on watersheds considers only two variables at a time. Given the complexity of watersheds and the demands placed on watersheds, along with a changing climate, we must expand our understanding of multiple stressors and plan our mitigation of those stressors accordingly. Furthermore, as we improve our understanding of the mechanics of our watersheds and the risks facing them, additional research into the impact of energy, transportation, agricultural, and urban policies on water security, quantity, and quality will need to occur simultaneously. This will entail integrated work with the social sciences and require outreach and education components to translate research into workable solutions. Our areas of scientific focus should be: ‹‹ Improving understanding of mechanistic linkages between land uses, extractive consumption of water resources, and watershed resistance and resilience to better inform policy. ‹‹ Improving understanding of risks and impacts to water supplies from extractive uses, sequestration technologies, and extractive technologies. ‹‹ Improving technology to process and allocate water in a manner that ensures sustainable, high quality water for human uses and maintenance of ecosystem services.

12 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources ‹‹ Developing understanding of how existing and future policies and land uses impact water security, quantity, and quality over regional and national scales. ‹‹ Assessing how the intersection of social (or human) and natural (or environmental) systems impact water security, quantity and quality.

Grand Challenge 3: Climate Change We need to understand the impacts of climate change on our environment, including such aspects as disease transmission, air quality, water supply, ecosystems, fire, species survival, and pest risk. Further, we must develop a comprehensive strategy for managing natural resources to adapt to climate changes.

Ecosystems are critical components of cultural, social and economic systems as they interact with water and climate to produce critically important natural resources, biodiversity, and an array of services upon which humans depend. Climate change threatens disruption of these systems on a massive scale, but our understanding of these complex systems and their reaction to rapid, multiple changes brought on by climate change is limited. Like water science, the difficult questions for natural resources and climate change lie in the complexity of the systems and the likely changes. While our knowledge of individual species reactions to individual stressors is good, our knowledge of an entire ecosystem response to the full suite of climate change variables is meager and will not be useful to natural resource managers or policy makers as it currently stands. To remedy this situation, much greater research on the following will be necessary: ‹‹ Observational and Experimental Approaches — Many of the greatest challenges in understanding the effects of climate change on natural resources involve interactions between multiple climate variables, natural processes, and society. Ecosystem responses to climate change are contingent upon a large number of location, history, and stochastic variables. ‹‹ Simulations and Modeling — Computer models, whether statistical, dynamical, or mixed, provide useful tools for testing our understanding of the behavior of natural and human systems. If such models have been validated, they can serve as valuable planning and management tools. ‹‹ Management, Risk and Uncertainty — Risk evaluation and management of natural resources in the context of climate change requires real-time monitoring data, comprehensive exploration of the consequence of management choices, and models for testing management hypotheses. There is especially poor cross- disciplinary knowledge of the uncertainties associated with climate change and climate change impacts, leading inevitably to poor or biased understanding of uncertainty by natural resource managers and other stakeholders.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 13 Grand Challenge 4: Agriculture We must develop a sustainable, profitable, and environmentally responsible agriculture industry.

As mentioned before, the Delphi survey named agriculture as one of the six grand challenges of natural resources and we have chosen in this roadmap to reference the ESCOP Science Roadmap for Agriculture (APLU 2010) rather than writing a chapter specifically on creating . However, we would be remiss if we did not highlight the importance of developing a sustainable agricultural industry to the sustainability of our natural resources. Furthermore, we must also point out that agriculture cannot exist without the natural resources base upon which it exists, namely clean and abundant water, healthy soils, pollinators, genetic biodiversity, and a stable climate. In lieu of a chapter, we provide a visual overview, in the form of a crosswalk (Appendix 3), of commonalities and differences between the NR Roadmap’s and the ESCOP Roadmap’s priorities. Grand Challenge 5: Energy We must identify new and alternative renewable energy sources and improve the efficiency of existing renewable resource-based energy to meet increasing energy demands while reducing the ecological footprint of energy production and consumption.

Between 1980 and 2000, U.S. energy usage grew 21 percent. Though the past decade has seen some plateauing of energy consumption in the U.S., energy consumption is expected to rise again once the economy fully recovers. Even now, the U.S. is increasing exports of natural gas. To support this current and growing consumption, the U.S. expends a great deal of capital to produce or purchase energy sources, often at a cost to natural resources. While the environmental effects of traditional, carbon-based energy are fairly well-known, most renewable energy sources are still quite new. Renewable energy research during the coming decades will need to balance various needs including environmental stress, public perception and acceptability, regional differences, economics, technical feasibility, geopolitics, and fluctuations in the supply, demand, and price of non-renewable energy forms. Areas of scientific focus should be to: ‹‹ Improve understanding of costs and benefits of and use and public perceptions related to energy. ‹‹ Minimize impacts of increasing energy demands on natural resources. ‹‹ Maintain available energy and increase efficiency to reduce ecological footprint.

14 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources ‹‹ Provide educational opportunities to students, teachers, and consumers on the social, political, and environmental challenges related to energy production and use. Grand Challenge 6: Education We must maintain and strengthen natural resources education at our educational institutions at all levels in order to have the informed citizenry, civic leaders, and practicing professionals needed to sustain the natural resources of the United States.

Issues pertaining to sustainability of natural resources are the focus of local, regional, and national discussion. In a democracy such as ours, the development of natural resources policy involves interactions among professional managers, the public and elected officials. Public acceptance of natural resources plans and their effectiveness for achieving sustainable management depends upon the integration of scientific information and societal values. However, much of the American public has little understanding of the process by which scientific knowledge is gained. That is, most people neither understand the framing and testing of hypotheses, nor the difference between hypothesis testing and construction of theory explaining a body of natural phenomena. Hence, it is not surprising that citizens—and frequently their leaders—misunderstand and often misconstrue scientific issues in discussions regarding the science and management of natural resources. Only by advances in popular understanding of scientific process, combined with more effective science communication, can discussion of natural resources issues be elevated. This goal may be achieved by the following: ‹‹ Include natural resources in K-12 education by incorporation into Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) curriculum and activities. ‹‹ Strengthen natural resources curricula at the higher education level. ‹‹ Improve the scientific literacy of the Nation’s citizens. ‹‹ Communicate scientific information to the general public in efficient and effective ways. ‹‹ Promote natural resource stewardship. ‹‹ Promote diversity in the natural resources professions. Conclusion It is hoped that the NR Roadmap will serve as a point of reference for discussions about these crucial resources. Furthermore, the recommendations proposed in this roadmap should justify increased funding and collaboration for research, education and outreach in the natural resources. References Association of Public and Land-grant Universities, Experiment Station Committee on Organ- ization and Policy—Science and Technology Committee. 2010. A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture. Association of Public and Land-grant Universities, Washington DC.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 15 Grand Challenge 1: Sustainability

We need to conserve and manage natural landscapes and maintain environmental quality while optimizing renewable resource productivity to meet increasing human demands for natural resources, particularly with respect to increasing water, food, and energy demands.

Human society has developed activity) to human well-being; within the context of coupled (2) human decisions may affect Framing the Issue human and natural systems, in ecosystems positively via recovery, which the natural systems are self- restoration and reclamation, or sustaining and support human negatively via degradation; and Survival of human civilization is activities so long as those activities (3) real or perceived well-being dependent on “life supporting” do not deteriorate the system or of humans should have a direct goods and services that are provided extract system components in a input in decision making (policy) by healthy coupled human and manner that compromises the supporting adaptive and sustainable natural resource systems, or social- system’s functional integrity (Figure management of natural systems ecological systems. Further, quality 1). These coupled systems and (Willig and Scheiner 2011). From of life and connection to the natural their interactions are regulated this perspective, the positive inputs world are positively affected by by selected principles: (1) the from ecosystems represent various accessibility to intact natural functionality of natural systems provisions, regulations, support, or resource areas and opportunities to varies along a condition continuum cultural services that are collectively experience the diversity of services from intact to deteriorated, with considered to be ecosystem goods that these areas offer to all facets of each system component providing or services. society at all times. Destruction or positive or negative input(s) The linkages between the degradation of ecosystems threatens (tradeoffs may exist with respect social and ecological systems are human well-being and the survival of to inputs for any particular expressed through the delivery civilization as we currently know it. disturbance or management and utilization of ecosystem

16 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources goods and services (Figure 1). The community shifts, and conversion contrast, sustainably-geared social biophysical condition represents of to animal ; while policies can lead to changes in the abiotic and biotic state of the social and economic processes, human behavior and investments ecosystem elements, while natural such as demographic, cultural, in ecosystem conservation that capital represents the stock of all and policy-based factors, influence enhance and ecosystem elements that lead to the level of benefit derived from biophysical condition. However, biophysical function. ecosystem services. Interactions socially-imposed restrictions Human condition represents the between the biophysical and on ecosystem function that are well-being of people, social capital socioeconomic systems occur the result of actions by poorly is the capacity for innovation and through the delivery and utilization informed decision-makers can also adaptation, and economic capital of extractable ecosystem goods lead to long-term deterioration represents built and and the in situ provision of of ecosystems and subsequent financial stocks that can generate ecosystem services. The utilization catastrophic events. A prime financial dividends. The vertical of ecosystem goods and services example has been widespread arrows in Figure 2 represent the can lead to external negative or restrictions on the use of fire as a processes that affect capital and positive effects. For example, management tool, as well as the condition within the biophysical natural capital and biophysical suppression of wildfires, that lead and socioeconomic subsystems condition are diminished if to unmanageable build-up of . over time. For example, biophysical ecosystem goods are extracted at The result has been large, difficult- processes lead to soil genesis, plant rates greater than the capacity of to-control wildfires that threaten growth and reproduction, plant the ecosystem to produce them. By , property, and reflect changes

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 17 in ecosystem function (away from historically fire-dependent Intact ecosystems). Ecosystems As human populations grow, pressure on natural resources increases as illustrated in the Human Recovery Human linkages in Figures 1 and 2 because Decision Degradation Restoration Well each person requires space to Making Disturbance Being live, shelter for survival, and infrastructure to meet daily needs. The result is increased dependence Degraded on extraction and deterioration Ecosystems of natural resources. Equally and maybe more importantly, per capita consumption is increasing Figure 1. This simplified but overarching conceptual model (Willig and Scheiner 2011) defines key linkages between natural and human systems that together constitute a dynamic and therefore the environmental socioecological system. impact of each human being is also increasing. The combination of a growing and more affluent population foretells serious natural Biophysical Natural Social and Human resource challenges. State t0 Condition Capital Economic Capital Condition Incentives to sustain natural resources for the long term are Ecosystem often overshadowed by human Services desire for short-term gain and profit maximization (economic Goods Extraction capital depicted in Figure 2). Climate regulation, water retention

Time Services In Situ Use and filtration, healthy streams, External intact forests and open rangelands Outcomes

Ecological Processes Social and Economic Processes provide habitat for many wild species. They exemplify natural capital and ecosystem services that have mostly unquantified economic State t Biophysical Natural Social and Human value. By contrast, electricity 1 Condition Capital Economic Capital Condition generated from pollution-emitting power , corn produced in Water use drained wetlands, and housing Agricultural production developments on open grasslands Vegetative diversity Forest/Rangeland production Animal diversity or timbered mountainsides have easily identified market values, but the associated negative impacts Figure 2. The integrated social, economic and ecological conceptual (ISEEC) framework for identifying linkages between biophysical and socioeconomic components of on the natural resources that they social-ecological systems (adapted from Fox et al. 2009). affect are generally externalized. If

18 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources we continue “business as usual,” current and future generations will increasingly experience the burden of ecosystems that have been degraded by economically-driven human activities. In turn, this would result in an ever-larger proportion of the human population with inadequate access to the natural resources that they need and ever- greater disparity in the quality of life between the rich and the poor, which represents a significant environmental justice issue. To avoid this outcome, the highest research priorities should focus on the means to restore and maintain the health of existing and deteriorated social-ecological systems. Moreover, this restoration to expand agricultural production current food production will need and maintenance must be into areas previously dominated to be intensified and/or expanded. accomplished in the face of rising by perennial plant cover that Such land use change often leads global demand for basic human served as valuable wildlife habitat. to degradation of soil and water necessities (food, water, energy and Grasslands are vanishing in the resources both on-site and off-site, shelter) under the uncertainty of upper Midwest faster than at any and destruction of currently intact ecosystem-wide effects of climate time since the 1920s and 1930s due natural resource systems. The need change and in a market economy to increasing commodity prices and for a sustainable form of agriculture that currently has a limited farmers’ desires to capture resulting is paramount from multiple capacity to identify monetary value profits (Wright and Wimberly natural resource perspectives. for ecosystem services that can 2013). These and multiple other For a more thorough discussion of the fundamental necessity to be obtained only from properly examples identified in subsequent develop sustainable agricultural functioning natural resource sections dealing with climate techniques and methods, refer to systems. change and with water illustrate the complex and daunting task of A Science Roadmap for Food and Natural Resource Stressors sustaining or improving our natural Agriculture prepared by the APLU resources under the influence of an and ESCOP, and see especially Grand Rapid changes Climate Change — increasingly variable climate. Challenge 1 (“We must enhance in climatic conditions threaten to the sustainability, competitiveness, destabilize and possibly collapse Agriculture — Humans depend and profitability of U.S. food and existing social-ecological systems. heavily on agricultural production agricultural systems.”) and Grand For example, between 1980 and for their survival. In turn, Challenge 6 (“We must heighten 2008 climate change reduced global agriculture is heavily dependent environmental stewardship through and yields (Lobell on natural resources, especially the development of sustainable et al. 2011), elevating commodity soil, water and pollinators. In management practices.”) (APLU prices and thus increasing pressure order to meet growing demand, 2010).

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 19 Natural Resource Systems the values of the resource base other invasive species on ecosystem in both rural and urban settings. services and on other environmental Forestlands — The growth in For example, large acreages of impacts. Life cycle assessment industries that use forest biomass hardwood forests have suffered modeling will help identify the will increase utilization of from decades of high-grading in economic and ecosystem value of forestlands not previously used which the larger, more commercially this natural resource (Wolfslehner et due to relatively poor timber valuable trees and species were al. 2013). However, assumptions and quality, low market prices (Janowiak removed, providing a market inputs into these models will need and Webster 2010) and limited opportunity for the remaining less to be specific in order to accurately accessibility. However, these desirable species. An emerging represent local contexts and needs forested areas also contribute market for “lower quality” and develop new markets. to carbon sequestration and, products from urban and traditional Rangelands — Rangelands therefore, mitigate climate change forests could encourage a renewal encompass many natural resources (Vose et al. 2012), and may of the forest ecosystem with a and ecosystem services but are support high biodiversity. This more balanced approach that often discounted due to their change in utilization and increased protects species that are desirable relatively low potential for food environmental burden applies to for , commercial, wildlife, and timber production. They are increasingly large urban forests and other purposes. In addition, among the most widely distributed as well as traditional timberlands. enhancing the sustainability of and diverse landforms in the It is imperative that all forests forest ecosystem services and world and include grasslands, are managed not only for wood systems will require studies to shrublands, and savannas. Due to production but also to protect other consider the entire supply chain their extensiveness, rangelands not ecosystem services and values, of forest products from stump to only support the livelihoods of over which may require the development end use as well as focus on the one third of the world’s population of new valuation models. In effects of the harvest intensity (Reynolds et al. 2007), but they developing these models there is and consequences such as the provide many critical ecosystems also an opportunity to improve introduction of no-native trees and services, including water catchment and filtration, carbon sequestration, and the provision of wildlife habitat, all of which affect human well- being. Maintenance and restoration of rangelands ecosystems in a changing world are critical for the future welfare of burgeoning human populations. In the U.S., federal subsidies for some commodity crops have led to the conversion of marginally productive grasslands to croplands and subsequently to non-native pastures. Such land conversion negatively impacts the health of native rangelands as well as those species, especially birds, which depend on native grassland

20 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources habitats. Another growing issue As with agricultural and forest- and important species (Scheffer is the increasing utilization of rangeland-related uses of natural and Carpenter 2003) as well as rangelands for energy production, resources, wildlife research needs the intrusion of non-native and including the development of to focus not only on management invasive species with significant additional oil and gas resources tied to the direct economic value consequences (Occhipinti- as well as and solar energy of wildlife but also on the effects Ambrogi 2007). Understanding the (Kreuter et al. 2012). Such of other non-commercial species influence of land use on marine developments have both biophysical and suites of species on the health and coastal habitats continues and socio-economic consequences of ecosystems. An example of this to emerge as a vital component for rangelands. A research, is the removal of wolves leading of sustaining marine and coastal education, and outreach framework to the increase of elk and the resources. Traditional uses, such is needed in which rangelands are associated decrease in aspen and as , fishing, and tourism viewed as dynamic and integrated willows and subsequently also now sit alongside more recent social-ecological systems, and beavers in the Yellowstone National uses such as aquaculture, and in which the human dimensions Park, which ultimately resulted in tidal, current and wind energy of these systems are addressed substantial changes in hydrology production. These emerging uses concomitantly with and to the same within the ecosystem (Ripple and are continuing to expand and it is degree as the their biophysical Beschta 2012). becoming increasingly challenging characteristics (Figure 2). Marine and Coastal Ecosystems — to effectively coordinate sometimes competing uses through current Wildlife — Changes in the Healthy marine and coastal management approaches. On 19 composition of ecological environments are in decline, July 2010, President Obama signed communities through extirpations, largely due to over-harvesting, an executive order establishing a invasions and altered abundances, pollution, climate change, reduced National Policy for the Stewardship which may be exacerbated through inflow, and land use of the Ocean, Our Coasts, and the climate change, human use and change. Dramatic shifts in species Great Lakes (Executive Order No. altered disturbance regimes composition have been observed 13547, 2010). The national policy such as fire suppression, have for commercially and regionally resulted in an increasing need to understand the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Results from biodiversity- ecosystem function studies have found that increases in diversity are associated with increase in resource capture efficiency, biomass production, decomposition and cycling. However, research that has focused on biodiversity has often been associated with economically important wildlife species while studies of the broader effects of wildlife species on ecosystem processes have been less common.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 21 identifies coastal and marine spatial to meet tomorrow’s increasing There is a rising need for planning as one of nine priority natural resource demands. For infrastructure planning to be implementation objectives and example, life cycle analyses used coupled with resource location outlines a framework for effective to evaluate the sustainability and production capability analysis. marine planning that addresses of a given system, compared to As human populations grow in conservation, economic activity, traditional research approaches, size and density and expand user conflict, and sustainable use of provide a more comprehensive geographically, it will not be the ocean, our coasts, and the Great opportunity to understand resource feasible to continue converting Lakes. requirements of that system; natural (frequently less suitable) similar approaches could be used areas to resource production to examine externalized costs that areas; nor will it be feasible Gap Analysis are not considered in the final from an energy balance stand- prices of goods or services. A useful point to produce and process assessment of future decrease in consumables at great distances The sustainability of natural economic profit, ability to rely on from the populations needing resources must be evaluated by a resource, or standard of living these products. The development environmental quality standards will not be possible until the full of decentralized means to as well as by present and future value of and resource accommodate food and energy social and economic expectations. systems is acknowledged and demands is needed, as is public Heretofore, sustainable has been included in evaluations of social- education on the benefits of used to represent minimized ecological systems. available local resources. inputs and idealized environmental The means to generate or An important knowledge quality. This vision of sustainability recognize incentives are limited gap in the understanding and is often at odds with the reality of by poor understanding of feasible implementation of sustainable economics, a growing population ecosystem services trade- systems involves the power of with an increasing standard for offs. Furthermore, mitigation of local practitioners to integrate quality of life, and the necessity adversities will not be possible recommendations based on to adapt to climate changes. It is without understanding the factors scientific knowledge, or the only with a mind towards the future that affect the values, goals, barriers that prevent them from that scientists can begin to analyze and decisions of stakeholders doing so. Further, the impacts today’s resource use patterns and (public) and production groups of current policy on adoption compare alternative strategies (private). Research to better of science-based resource understand resource management recommendations sustainability is not fully known, nor are the must consider unintended impacts of such both technologies policies. The long-term success of and practices that such recommendations, especially improve or increase between public and private use production as well sectors, is also not fully known. as technologies Interdisciplinary research and practices that must effectively address complex protect or improve systems critical to the future environmental management of sustainable natural quality. resources. Should innovative

22 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources methods to preserve and recycle novel agricultural systems that critical resources, such as water, support ecological processes and Research Needs be insufficient to support future that are capable of meeting the demands, implementation increasing demands for food, and Priorities of adaptation strategies to water, and energy of a growing certain priority resources may human population. Policies, socio- Coupled Human-Natural be necessary, perhaps even economic challenges, shifting Systems transferring the resource product demographics, and public versus or services produced from one area private stakeholder decision- Natural resource analyses must to another. The development of making processes and behaviors account for interrelated human policies and market mechanisms to are all important elements for and natural resource systems by support such adaptation may also understanding and optimizing the addressing interactive processes between ecosystems and growing be needed. potential future use of natural human populations. Understanding resources in an environmentally Research on the responses the influences of social and responsible manner. There is a of natural resource systems to economic practices and policies on critical societal need to promote different environmental stresses natural resources is critical. or management strategies has and adopt generated voluminous data, but practices while researchers and ‹‹ Seek to more thoroughly these data are rarely amalgamated. lawmakers collaborate to devise understand and apply the concept of socioecology; human There is a great need for the scientifically rigorous policies that and natural systems are linked synthesis of these extensive data will facilitate effective sustenance and should be studied as one sets to better understand system of natural resources. Only with broad human-natural system. responses to such stresses and the adoption of social-ecological strategies and, therefore, to better frameworks for developing solutions ‹‹ Improve environmental and predict their positive or negative to natural resources challenges social justice for all social impacts on natural resources in the can managers proceed with greater classes. future. Also, the need for resolution confidence in the sustainability of ‹‹ Apply life cycle analysis to of these interpretive or predictive their actions. major materials and natural functions at the local level has highlighted an inadequacy in both spatial and temporal analytical tools or methods in data capture. The National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis exemplifies a strategy to meet this current data management inadequacy. Resource priorities such as maintenance of soil and ecosystem resiliency, stream and water protection, public conservation, and natural landscapes for diverse demographics must be balanced against the need to develop

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 23 resources management and alter the future availability, simulations in order to improve production scenarios. utility, and resilience of natural the capability of climate- ‹‹ Recognize and account for resources. dependent natural resource models to predict outcomes external costs not internalized Soils and Freshwater Resources — under future climate scenarios in prices. Adaptive and effective soil and (e.g., water availability; forest, water management strategies ‹‹ Improve agricultural, forest and rangeland, and crop response are necessary. Global climate and fisheries production through to persistence; and soil demographic change will further more efficient use of land, ). water, energy, and chemicals stress crucial water and soil to meet the 9 Billion Challenge resources. ‹‹ Predict and evaluate how (United Nations 2013). a growing and urbanizing ‹‹ Quantify the benefits of human populace with an ‹‹ Simultaneously increase the technological innovation. overall increase in standard generation of renewable energy Precision technologies (e.g., of living will affect how soils while reducing the impacts of micro-) can enhance are managed and how water is infrastructure and land use the sustainability of how allocated. change (e.g., wind , wells, humans use water and soil. ‹‹ Apply systems-level analytics pipelines) on fisheries and ‹‹ Determine the capacity of soil to understand the complex wildlife. and water reserves to meet feedbacks between humans, ‹‹ Evaluate how food production, current and future demands for soil, and water and to identify freshwater availability, and agricultural and forest products. key leverage points for policy natural landscapes can coexist ‹‹ Evaluate the effectiveness makers in order to optimize the in a sustainable manner while of policies and incentives efficiency of public and private facing the demands of a that promote soil and expenditures. growing human population. conservation. Forestlands — Refined sustainable ‹‹ Evaluate how different policy ‹‹ Increase the spatial and forest management practices and and economic scenarios might temporal precision of climate technologies will be required to meet the growing needs of an expanding and more diverse society. ‹‹ Create quantifiable measures of the cumulative effects of improved forest management, including harvesting and transportation practices, and products on integrated soil, water, ecosystem services and biodiversity protection needs. ‹‹ Research and identify forest management practices that support amelioration of climate change. ‹‹ Develop realistic economic assessments of the long-term

24 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources effect of current utilization rates hayfields. Expand spatial and keeping them within the on the resource and ecosystem temporal scales of research to sustainable capacities of their productivity with the goal of provide accurate measurements habitats. determining the utilization of the heterogeneous ‹‹ Quantify native and invasive rates needed to maintain forest biophysical factors as well as species responses to habitat health and reduce negative response lags to management changes imposed by climate environmental effects, while practices that influence and land use change and meeting society’s needs. rangeland productivity and develop options that improve ‹‹ Identify reasonable scale and the ecosystem services they native species adaptation utilization rates of resources to provide. as well as invasive species reduce negative environmental ‹‹ Promote transdisciplinary containment or mitigation. effects, e.g., limits for biomass research to address cross- ‹‹ Identify local and regional removals to retain soil cutting social and biophysical strategies for conservation of and organic matter and the factors that influence the threatened and endangered effectiveness of intensive dynamics of rangelands species in light of likely climate forestry for -based and tradeoffs resulting and land change scenarios. products in offsetting the need from changing demands for tree harvests on ecologically for potentially competing ‹‹ Monitor the arrival and or aesthetically sensitive sites. ecosystem services. encroachment rate of invasive flora, insects, and diseases, ‹‹ Identify forest management ‹‹ Develop protocols, document and the resulting effects on options for sustainable and and assess contributions of biodiversity at the landscape economically viable use of non- science-based and local land level. forest timber products. management decisions to short- and long-term outcomes of Marine and Coastal Ecosystems — ‹‹ Fully analyze the impacts of To improve sustainability of marine proposed large scale extraction conservation programs. and coastal ecosystems we must projects, such as hydraulic Biological Diversity — While the understand: (1) the status and fracking, on overall forest health diversity of native flora and fauna trends of resource abundance and and landscapes. —both aquatic and terrestrial—and distribution through more accurate, Rangelands — There is a ecological processes are integral timely assessments; (2) interspecies fundamental need to advance to all of the mentioned systems, and habitat-species relationships knowledge of how rangeland improved understanding of to support forecasting of resource ecosystems, socioeconomics, responses to and adaptation to stability and sustainability; and (3) climate, and specific management climate change and land use change human-use patterns that influence practices change and interrelate is a pressing need. resource stability and sustainability. over time. ‹‹ Assess watershed and regional ‹‹ Assess the coupled impacts of ‹‹ Emphasize and promote an landscape connectivity factors resource use and extraction integrated systems approach for major groups of species, (e.g., fisheries, ocean , for research and outreach to e.g., residential and migratory tourism, energy) and systemic improve policy formulation birds and mammals, with change. that supports the long-term large area requirements, and ‹‹ Monitor living resources at sustainable management of pollinators. multiple trophic levels using dynamic rangeland ecosystems, ‹‹ Monitor key wildlife populations both -independent including pastures and and develop techniques for and fishery-dependent data

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 25 and ecosystem a more integrative and holistic function. approach to the evaluation of the ‹‹ Model release, dispersion, conditions and trends of natural cycling, and cumulative resources. ecological impacts of contaminants (e.g., from oil spills and releases, air emissions, and non-point New Directions sources of pollution).

collected at appropriate Future investments for research, levels of species resolution to education, and outreach relating understand and better identify Expected Outcomes to the provision and use of natural physical, biological, and social resources must promote systems- thresholds and sustainability thinking approaches to developing shifts. Status Quo — Disconnected silo-type new knowledge and novel solutions ‹‹ Promote marine spatial research approaches may not only to natural resource challenges. planning by developing and be economically inefficient but may Such approaches must incorporate validating ecosystem and also hinder a broader understanding rigorous scientific methodology species interaction models. of natural resource system with integrative modeling and dynamics and factors that influence adaptive management approaches ‹‹ Develop approaches and the sustainability of such systems. to problem solving. Moreover, scenarios to understand and Especially problematic is the lack of increasing emphasis needs to integrate the specific and knowledge about feedback effects be placed on multidisciplinary cumulative impacts of various resulting from human economic research, education, planning, natural resource policies on activities on biophysical functions and outreach endeavors, all living resources and human and processes that produce the supported by the development communities. ecosystem goods and services of a comprehensive knowledge ‹‹ Conduct process studies and upon which human well-being is network for sustainability science. develop models to assess predicated. Moreover, an over- As the biophysical and social impact and recovery responses emphasis on reductionist science scientists increasingly interact to natural and anthropogenic and the lack of focus on integrated in such integrative solution- induced declines (e.g., linking systems-thinking approaches to oriented approaches, a wider effects of hypoxic zones to problem solving with respect to the range of knowledge bases as well land use practices) in natural, management of natural resources as data acquisition and analytical biological or physical coastal contradict the goal of sustainability, tools need to be appreciated and and marine resources. whereby future generations have utilized. These include scientific as ‹‹ Develop means to measure the same right and ability to well as local knowledge sets, and the impact of invasive species, benefit from natural resources as both quantitative and qualitative aquaculture development, current generations. It also inhibits research methods. With such disease and pathogens, ocean the capacity of natural resources multifaceted approaches there is warming and acidification, managers to adapt to changing a greater potential that complex severe weather and coastal biophysical and socioeconomic and dynamic natural resources flooding/erosion on marine conditions; such adaptation requires systems can not only be better

26 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources understood but also that natural biomass harvesting. Journal of Population Division. 2013. World resources managers will develop Forestry 108:16-23. Population Prospects: The a greater capacity to adapt Kreuter, U.P., W.E. Fox, J.A. Tanaka, 2012 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables. Working to changing biophysical and K.A. Maczko, D.W. McCollum, J.E. Mitchell, C.S. Duke and L. No. ESA/P/WP.228. socioeconomic conditions. This is Hidinger. 2012. Framework for Vose, J.M., C.R. Ford, S. Laseter, S. critical for the sustainable use of comparing ecosystem impacts Dymond, G. Sun, M.B. Adams, natural resources under changing of developing unconventional S. Sebestyen, J. Campbell, C. conditions in an increasingly energy resources on western US Luce, D. Amatya, K. Elder and populated world. rangelands. Rangeland Ecology T. Heartsill-Scalley. 2011. Can and Management 65:433-443 forest watershed management References Lobell, D.B., W. Schlenker and J. mitigate climate change effects Costa-Roberts. 2011. Climate on water resources? Revisiting Association of Public and Land- trends and global crop Experimental Catchment Studies grant Universities, Experiment production since 1980. in Forest Hydrology (Proceedings Station Committee on Science 333:616-620. of a Workshop held during the Organization and Policy— XXV IUGG General Assembly Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A. 2007. Science and Technology in Melbourne, June–July 2011) Global change and marine Committee. 2010. A Science (IAHS Publ. 353, 2012). communities: Alien species Roadmap for Food and Willig, M.R., and S.M. Scheiner. 2011. Agriculture. Association and climate change. Marine Pollution Bulletin 55:342-352. The state of theory in ecology. of Public and Land-grant Pages 333-347 in S.M. Scheiner Universities, Washington, DC. Reynolds R.W., T.M. Smith, C. Liu, and M.R. Willig, editors. Theory Executive Order No. 13547, Federal D.B. Chelton, K.S. Casey and of Ecology. University of Chicago Register, Vol. 75, No. 140, M.G. Schlax. 2007. Daily high- Press, Chicago, IL. Thursday, July 22, 2010. resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. Wolfslehner, B., P. Huber and Fox, W.E., D.W. McCollum, J.E. Journal of Climate 20:5473-5496. M.J. Lexer. 2013. Smart Mitchell, L.E. Swanson, G.R. use of small-diameter Evans, H.T. Heintz, Jr., J.A. Ripple, W.J., and R.L. Beschta. 2012. hardwood - A forestry-wood Tanaka, U.P. Kreuter, R.P. Trophic cascades in Yellowstone: chain sustainability impact Breckenridge and P.H. Geissler. The first 15 years after wolf assessment in Austria. 2009. An integrated social, reintroduction. Biological Scandanavian Journal of Forest economic, and ecologic Conservation 145:205–213. Research 28:184-192. conceptual (ISEEC) framework Scheffer, M., and S. Carpenter 2003. Wright, C.K., and M.C. Wimberly. for considering rangeland Catastrophic regime shifts in 2013. Recent land use change sustainability. Society and ecosystems: linking theory to in the Western Corn Belt Natural Resources 22:593-606. observation. Trends in Ecology threatens grasslands and Janowiak, M.K., and C.R. Webster. and Evolution 18:648-656. wetlands. Proceedings of the 2010. Promoting ecological United Nations, Department of National Academy of Sciences sustainability in woody Economic and Social Affairs, 110:4124-4139.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 27 Grand Challenge 2: Water

We must restore, protect and conserve watersheds for biodiversity, water resources, pollution reduction and water security.

rivers comprise only 0.3 percent of U.S. and have resulted in a total global water resources, which reduction in certain types of water Framing the Issue are constantly being cycled from pollution. For example, the CWA rainfall to the oceans (Oki and Kanae led to the development of Best 2006). Efficient and balanced use of Management Practices (BMPs) for Humans, animals, plants, and clean freshwater supplies is critically forestry and agriculture, which terrestrial ecosystems depend on important (Russi et al. 2013). have helped to reduce sediment, a consistent supply of freshwater. nutrient, and discharges Indeed, most major civilizations Scientists, managers, and policy to waterways. The CWA also led have been formed near the sources makers have made great strides to the development of the Total of clean and abundant freshwater in improving water quality and that are critical for drinking, raising equitable access to water in the Maximum Daily Load program, agricultural crops, supporting U.S. The 1969 fire on the Cuyahoga which has helped managers to industry, and transporting goods River, Ohio was a major event that prioritize pollutant reductions (Naiman et al. 1995). Although 71 led to the passage of the Clean based on localized watershed percent of the ’s surface is Water Act (CWA—originally the conditions, although this effort covered by water, only about 2.5 Federal Control Act has been hampered by inadequate percent of the earth’s water is of 1972). The CWA and subsequent understanding of water quality freshwater, primarily composed of updates and guidance have provided thresholds and contaminant and . Surface a solid framework for regulating movements (Keisman and Shenk waters such as wetlands, lakes, and direct discharge of pollutants into 2013).

28 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Furthermore, an increased modeling has provided information addressing these challenges will understanding of the importance on attributes that contribute to a require enhanced technology, policy, of wetlands led to the 1985 high quality and high functioning and management approaches. Bill “Swampbuster” Provision, watershed. In spite of significant There are potentially large which makes agricultural producers progress, we still have polluted economic and human welfare ineligible for certain farm programs waterways in agricultural, rural costs of failing to conserve water if they convert wetlands to and urban areas, limited water and sustain water quality. Recent farmland. Wetland and stream availability in arid regions, water unexpected and mitigation policies and technologies use conflicts even in humid regions, in regions not previously thought have led to further protection rivers with highly modified water vulnerable (e.g., drought in and enhancement of water flows and habitat connectivity, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) resources. For example, scientific and deteriorated watersheds. A demonstrate the need to plan breakthroughs including genetic complex regulatory system that for the unexpected. They further alteration of plants have resulted cannot always accommodate whole demonstrate the need to form in reduced water requirements ecosystem services or all potential more nimble water management for some crops (Paoletti and water users, the failure of our institutions and adapt water law Pimentel 1996). Improvements in economic systems to properly to allow more flexibility in times of irrigation technology have led to the account for externalities, and rigid stress. conservation of water in arid and institutional structures all contribute Water also has cultural and semi-arid environments. Watershed to these problems. Effectively recreational benefits to our society.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 29 We rely on clean fresh water for 1. Naturally vegetated riparian proper ecosystem functioning; spiritual and cultural activities. In zones and wetlands that and some areas, recreational fishing, assimilate nutrients, the 5. Built-in natural redundancy—if boating and swimming are the water, reduce sedimentation, one water source should fail or primary sources of income in sequester carbon, and provide experience disturbance (e.g., regional economies. All of these habitat for fish and wildlife; wildfire), another is available uses depend on healthy ecosystems 2. Working, well maintained for ecosystem services (and and healthy watersheds. forests and grasslands that to provide source populations Researchers and managers promote infiltration, resulting for plant and animal increasingly recognize watersheds in cleaner water and reduced recolonization). and as the proper scale incidence of flooding; Watersheds can be resilient for action when addressing 3. Connected aquatic and and accommodate a variety of nonpoint source pollution problems. terrestrial habitats, allowing land use changes and impacts. Watersheds and aquifers form for animal movement, plant However, there can be tipping useful identifiable areas for dispersal, and recolonization points at which cumulative water management of water and other of disturbed habitats and thus quality impacts move aquatic and natural resources. Well-functioning maintaining ecosystem function wetland ecosystems to new quasi- watersheds are more resilient and biodiversity; equilibrium states associated with to external pollution loads, and 4. Dynamic flow regimes that greatly diminished ecosystem their protection, restoration, and support multiple water quality services. A prominent example is conservation at all scales (e.g., from processes and aquatic physical the recurrent algal bloom and zone headwater streams and wetlands regimes, including temperature of hypoxia off the mouth of the to estuaries, bays, and oceans) are dynamics, biogeochemical Mississippi each summer due to vitally important for maintaining cycling, and geomorphological excess biodiversity, water resources, processes (woody debris, into the Mississippi tributaries. and pollution reduction. High sediment deposition, floodplain In some cases, watersheds quality, functional watersheds are connectivity), across spatial and require minimum flows and peak characterized by: temporal scales important to flow events to sustain aquatic biodiversity. Management of withdrawals and storage systems do not always take these concepts into consideration. Future economic and environmental sustainability, human health, and population growth are all tied to and limited by the supply of water and the ecosystem services provided by healthy watersheds. Hullar (1996) grouped water issues into three key areas: (1) physical and hydrologic challenges, (2) biological problems, and (3) policies and institutions.

30 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources More recently, Kiang and others from fertilized farm fields; (8) allocation and access; (3) political (2011) stress the impact of land emergence of legacy contaminant and technical interstate and use change, climate change and issues and the influence on water interbasin transfer of water; and (4) variability, and markets, policies, quality; and (9) overall increased redundancy of backup systems and and regulations on watershed demand on the water supply at conservation strategies. health and resilience. Water issues regional domestic and international are becoming increasingly complex scales. and require multi-disciplinary Watershed function (health Water Research science to find cross-cutting and resilience) and water security solutions. There are a number (quantity, quality, and variability) Gaps of emerging factors that impact are inter-related, and they must a watershed’s ability to deliver be sustained at local, regional, While the Clean Water Act has clean and plentiful water supplies, national, and global scales. For significantly decreased point including: (1) climate change and example, local communities are sources of pollution, non-point its potential effects on biodiversity, often more attuned and responsive sources of pollution such as water availability, and water quality; to watershed conditions and sediment, excess nutrients, solar (2) groundwater overdraft for urban thus are critical in developing insolation (causing high summer and suburban water supplies and rapid responses to perturbations. water temperatures), and urban cropland irrigation, leading to Regional-scale assessments and runoff continue to plague many of depleted water tables and drying management includes potential the nation’s waterways. Research aquifers; (3) changing land use conflicts across political boundaries has significantly advanced our such as increased urbanization, (e.g., state, county), but usually understanding of the importance which result in more impervious at scales that are consistent with of aquatic physical regimes, surfaces and leads to increased locally developed solutions. including temperature, sediment, incidences of flooding and pollutant National-scale policies and wood debris input, and flow, for inputs; (4) contaminants, such as actions are important for multi- maintaining functioning flowing endocrine disruptors, or activities jurisdictional issues, but can involve water ecosystems from headwaters such as hydrofracking or mining more complex trade-offs and to estuaries. Our understanding and their impacts on aquatic life equity issues. Globally, watersheds of the watershed processes that and human health; (5) deposition of encompass transboundary issues contribute to functioning non- atmospheric pollutants and impacts that have the potential to create flowing water systems, from small on quality; (6) shifts international disputes and conflicts ephemerally flooded wetlands in agricultural commodities or (Michel and Pandya 2009). to the Great Lakes, has also production methods, which may Lessons learned from improved. This understanding has lead to increased erosion and studying watershed function and yet to be fully implemented in a sedimentation from conventional management within the U.S. are policy framework—we monitor and or , increased transferable to other parts of the regulate systems using maximum inputs of nitrogen, phosphorous, world. In particular: (1) industrial daily loads and maximum or and carbon from fertilizer and and municipal wastewater minimum threshold values rather feed, and decreased and treatment than maintaining spatially explicit, stream flows due to surface technologies for improving water regime-based water quality diversions for irrigation; (7) quality; (2) implementation of standards that may be more estuarine eutrophication due to policies, laws, and rules for relevant for maintaining watershed leaching of high levels of nitrate governance to promote fair water function.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 31 Successfully conserving changes to many aspects of stream functioning and water quality (e.g., watersheds for biodiversity and function, and prioritizing stressors areas of , water quality requires holistic, is difficult (Wenger et al. 2009). riparian areas, wetlands, or interdisciplinary research. This Further stressors include nonnative floodplain habitats) (Wickham and research can be paired with policy species introductions, interbasin Flather 2013). and social-science studies to transfers, and habitat and species Despite our broad understanding develop science-based solutions to homogenization. We generally lack of the impacts of human activity on-the-ground problems. To foster a full understanding of how these on water quality and quantity, public support and understanding changes in habitat translate to watershed planners face a variety of policy changes, research needs changes in watershed biodiversity of unknowns, including changing to be accompanied by outreach and ecosystem functioning (e.g., economic conditions for crop and education focused on policy Jackson and Pringle 2010). A production (e.g., corn production outcomes that translate to better understanding of linkages for markets), the impact improvements in human quality of could inform policy aimed at of new extractive technologies life and biodiversity. setting meaningful water quality (e.g., hydrofracking), and issues The impacts of natural and thresholds, the maximum human for which there is little guidance, human disturbances, including footprint levels in a watershed, such as minimizing and mitigating silviculture, agriculture, and or regime-based standards for introductions of nonnative species. urbanization on freshwater and water quality and quantity that are In addition, the energy-water coastal marine habitats are necessary to maintain ecosystem nexus continues to dominate generally well understood, but function and biological diversity many aspects of water quality in a piecemeal fashion. While we from headwater streams to and quantity as energy extraction understand that water quality estuaries (e.g., Poole et al. 2004, can sometimes both use and stressors are inter-related, our et al. 2004). To be effective, contaminate water (e.g., through knowledge of system responses regulatory thresholds and/ damming, acid mine drainage, mine to pollutants is usually based on or landscape planning must be tailings, hydrofracking solutions), a series of bivariate relationships spatially explicit to protect areas while cheaper energy increases (i.e., one response variable and one of watersheds or landscapes that options for water supply (e.g., stressor). Watershed urbanization are more vulnerable than others ). imposes broad simultaneous or more essential for ecosystem Further complicating planning is a lack of technology to process and distribute water in a manner that ensures consistent and high quality supply to both human users and the ecosystem services expected from freshwater habitats. In particular, we lack sufficient techniques for removing pharmaceutical waste from wastewater, which may impact to an unknown extent the integrity of biological systems, animal behavior (both domestic and wildlife), and human health. It

32 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources may be more effective to consider communities should important watershed mitigation activities primary water supplies or habitats Research Needs that address water quality and become temporarily unavailable. aquatic ecosystem function Policies must facilitate spatially and Priorities holistically rather than through explicit management, and focus on ad-hoc implementation of simple resistance and resiliency that are In the United States, a number of and individual water properties most relevant in our most disaster- water quality challenges, particularly and attributes (e.g., temperature, prone areas (e.g., coastal habitats, related to point sources of pollution, nutrient loads). In addition, the areas prone to drought, wildfires have been effectively addressed. importance of understanding and areas of high-seismic activity). The water problems we face now are more complex and multi- watershed physical regimes (water Ultimately, to sustain watershed dimensional. Developing solutions quantity and stream flow, thermal functioning and water security at a will require inter-disciplinary regimes, and groundwater recharge) range of geographic scales, we need approaches involving the social and necessitates the advent and to understand which human factors natural sciences. This integration advancement of technology that impact water and energy security, of physical, biological, and social allows us to monitor and manage water quantity, and water quality sciences can help to create water in real-time. at the local, regional, national, linkages between the science and Finally, we must understand and global levels. Human factors management that allow for adaptive the policies—including mitigation include impacts of existing energy approaches to both. Prioritizing requirements, watershed policy (, hydrofracking, challenges and research needs management, and water allocation— drilling, atmospheric deposition will help lead to the development that best contribute to sustaining from coal fired power plants, of more efficient and effective aquatic ecosystem services in pipelines, extraction), forest environmental policies. Gold et al. the face of human land use management policy (streamside (2013) and APLU (2010) outline a activities, natural disturbance, management zones, and other set of research needs for water in and climate change. Resistance, BMPs), agriculture policy (water agriculture. Here we expand this the ability of an ecosystem to subsidies and other agriculture scope beyond agriculture to propose maintain function when disturbed policies and practices that lead five research themes and associated or undergoing environmental to unsustainable water use), objectives for moving water quantity change, and resilience, the ability residential and urban development and quality management forward. of an ecosystem to rapidly return (land-use and city planning), and to a pre-disturbance state, are transportation (urban sprawl, mass Theme I: Improve understanding increasingly important research transit, and highway development). of mechanistic linkages between topics. This importance increases Policies appropriate for each factor land uses, extractive consumption given the increased impact on across the range of scales are of water resources, and watershed resistance and resilience to better society from natural disasters, required to ensure a balance of inform policy. including drought, hurricanes, and water supply with demand, and wildfire. Intact systems with a full resilience of supply in the face of ‹‹ Quantify loads and impacts of complement of native fauna appear unexpected disaster, disturbance nutrients in watersheds. Identify more resistant to the impacts and ongoing climate change. In methods to reduce loads while of disaster, and redundancy in summary, we need to understand maintaining healthy economies. water supplies and key habitat which policies lead to a watershed- ‹‹ Identify meaningful water quality features allows for increased specific ‘tipping point’ from fully thresholds related to biological resilience in human and biological functioning to impaired. and human health.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 33 ‹‹ Define achievable restoration ‹‹ Identify spatially explicit targets for forested, urban, landscape and groundwater agricultural, aquatic and features that provide wetland systems. mechanisms of resistance and resilience to natural and man- Theme 2: Improve understanding of risks and caused hazards, particularly in impacts to water supplies our most disaster-prone areas from extractive uses, carbon (e.g., coastal habitats, areas ‹‹ Determine the undeveloped sequestration technologies, and prone to wildfire and areas of footprints needed in watersheds extractive technologies. high-seismic activity). to buffer hydrologic and water Quantify current agriculture use ‹‹ Increase precision of quality changes and sustain and overdraft. groundwater data and biodiversity, water quality, or modeling to better manage water quantity. ‹‹ Quantify the impacts of lands that recharge aquifers ‹‹ Identify the land use variables increased irrigation due to to increase aquifer yield and (indicators) that impact drought and changing climate prevent groundwater quality watershed biodiversity in agricultural areas and deterioration from agricultural and associated thresholds define sustainable use limits. and other sources. (tipping points) beyond which ‹‹ Improve understanding of ‹‹ Apply geospatial approaches watersheds are impacted or the presence of introduced such as modeling and remote degraded. chemicals and resulting sensing technologies to better ‹‹ Define components of natural byproducts resulting from model water quality and regimes (flow, temperature, hydrofracking. quantify future water supply natural vegetation) required to ‹‹ Improve understanding of and demand at regional and maintain ecosystem services, the presence of introduced national scales. and develop regime-based chemicals and resulting ‹‹ Use satellite and advanced standards for water quality and byproducts resulting from information technologies to quantity that are necessary to carbon injection in deep water predict potential maintain ecosystem function wells. at all scales (inter- and intra- and biological diversity, from Theme 3: Improve technology basin) and inform policy and headwater streams to estuaries. to process and distribute water management. ‹‹ Improve understanding of sub- in a manner that ensures Theme 4: Develop understanding surface flow and groundwater sustainable, high quality of how existing and future and surface water interactions, water for human uses and policies and land uses impact which can be crucial for maintenance of ecosystem water security, quantity, and biological communities and services. quality over regional and national provide mechanisms for ‹‹ Develop techniques and scales. resilience to drought, climate processes for removing ‹‹ Engage communities early, and warming, and disturbance. pharmaceuticals from in meaningful ways, in decision ‹‹ Improve understanding of wastewater. and policy making processes groundwater recharge and ‹‹ Develop technology that at the watershed level, giving contaminant fate and transport allows us to monitor and them a voice and ensuring that in both ground and surface manage water systems in real- the results are implementable waters. time. and effective.

34 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources ‹‹ Identify water impacts resulting ‹‹ Analyze the importance of scale ‹‹ Increase social science research from existing energy policy for watershed management that identifies decision-making (e.g., production of biofuels, and BMPs implementation to processes that are necessary for hydrofracking, oil drilling, maximize cost effectiveness watershed solutions. atmospheric deposition from and ecological benefits and ‹‹ Increase understanding of coal fired power plants, environmental services. how educational, incentive, pipelines, mineral extraction, ‹‹ Assess the optimal places or regulatory tools change the carbon injection, acid mine to focus future production behavior of the individual and drainage, valley fill from of timber, bioenergy crops, institutional users of water mountaintop removal mining) commodity crops, fruits and resources. and potential solutions. vegetables, and livestock ‹‹ Develop a holistic ‹‹ Identify regional and national grazing within sustainable understanding of our water water impacts resulting from water use limits. resources in a systems context. existing forest, rangeland, ‹‹ Assess the regional and and agriculture policies and national future water pricing, subsidies (e.g., water allocation policy, conservation, and Expected Outcomes laws, existing national cropping management programs needed and grazing patterns resulting to balance national water from farm bill incentives relative demand with sustainable Water is a key component of our to local supplies and resiliency) supply. and potential solutions. ecosystems and our economy. While significant progress has been ‹‹ Define water impacts resulting Theme 5: Assess how the made in protecting and restoring from existing regional and intersection of social (or human) our watersheds, there is a need national residential and urban and natural (or evironmental) systems impact water security, to continue and even accelerate development patterns and quantity and quality. our efforts. Additional research, identify potential alternatives education, and outreach efforts are and solutions. ‹‹ Increase use of hydro- needed to better understand the economics to understand and ‹‹ Examine water impacts resulting challenges we face in protecting, predict how new technologies from existing transportation restoring, and conserving our and policies will ultimately patterns and policies (e.g., watersheds and aquifers. impervious surface, sprawl, affect the condition of the Implementation of the NR habitat loss, introduction of targeted water resource Roadmap will create the knowledge metals and salts into aquatic systems. necessary to inform policy ecosystems), and analyze ‹‹ Increase economic decisions that can result in more effects of potential solutions understanding of management (e.g., mass transit, high speed alternatives for wetland and rail, cluster development, etc.). aquatic systems. ‹‹ Analyze inter- and intra-basin ‹‹ Enhance use of benefit/cost policy alternatives required analysis and policies to increase to ensure a balance of water understanding of public supply with demand and opinion (and determinants resilience of supply in the face of) concerning economic- of unexpected disaster and environmental trade-offs in ongoing climate change. watersheds.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 35 sustaining watershed functioning supply from natural disasters. and water security at a range of The science in this roadmap scales by proactively implementing will inform policies related to BMPs and conservation alternatives, energy, forestry, agriculture, strategies, watershed use, and transportation in ways planning, and comprehensive that will improve water demand conservation policies, all in balance management and sustain water with societal needs. It will allow quality and supply. us to identify opportunities for improved water management, References resilient watersheds with improved provide baselines for evaluating Association of Public and Land-grant watershed quality, security, and trends in water supply and water Universities, Experiment Station water supply. More resilient quality, identify threats to water Committee on Organization watersheds can better adapt to supply in a spatially explicit and Policy—Science and climate change, land use change, manner, and provide broad Technology Committee. 2010. A Science Roadmap for Food population growth, and other geographic context for assessing and Agriculture. Association processes. These watersheds will be the consequences of not addressing of Public and Land-grant able to provide economic services threats. Universities, Washington, DC. while also providing ecosystem Implementation of the NR Gold, A.J., D. Parker, R.M. Waskom, and environmental benefits. This Roadmap will help inform policy J. Dobrowolski, M. O’Neill, P.M. will increase our ability to produce Groffman and K. Addy. 2013. from the local to the global level. Advancing water resource food, fiber, and abundant and safe It will give communities the management in agricultural, drinking water with decreased information they need to ensure rural, and urbanizing watershed stress related to water that land use in watersheds watersheds: Why Land-Grant pollution and overuse of water will be sustainable. As a result, Universities Matter. Journal of supplies. communities will be better able Soil and Water Conservation 68:337. Specifically, implementation of to recover from disturbance Hullar, T.L. 1996. Water and the NR Roadmap will assist us in and interruption of clean water NASULGC: Challenge and Opportunity, Take Hold or Not? Commission on Food, Environment, and Renewable Resources, National Association of State Universities and Land- Grant Colleges, 109th Annual Meeting. Ice, G.G., J. Light and M. Reiter. 2004. Use of natural temperature patterns to identify achievable stream temperature criteria for forest streams. Western Journal of Applied Forestry 19:252-259. Jackson, C.R. and C.M. Pringle. 2010. Ecological benefits of reduced hydrologic connectivity in intensively developed landscapes. BioScience 60:37-46.

36 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Keisman, J., and G. Shenk. 2013. A national initiative. Science Brussels; Ramsar Secretariat, Total maximum daily load 270:584-585. Gland. http://www.teebweb.org/ criteria assessment using Oki, T., and S. Kanae. 2006. Global wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ monitoring and modeling hydrological cycles and world TEEB_WaterWetlands_ data. Journal of the American water resources. Science Report_2013.pdf Water Resources Association 313:1068-1072. Wenger, S.J., A.H. Roy, C.R. Jackson, 49:1134-1149. Paoletti, M.G., and D. Pimentel. E.S. Bernhardt, T.L. Carter, Kiang, J.E., J.R. Olsen and R.M. 1996. Genetic engineering S. Filoso, C.A. Gibson, N.B. Waskom. 2011. Introduction in agriculture and the Grim-m, W.C. Hession, S.S. to the featured collection on environment. BioScience Kaushal, E. Martí, J.L. Meyer, nonstationarity, hydrologic 46:665-673. M.A. Palmer, M.J. Paul, A.H. frequency analysis, and water Poole, G.C., J.B. Dunham, D.M. Purcell, A. Ramirez, A.D. management. Journal of the Keenan, S.T. Sauter, D.A. Rosemond, K.A. Schofield, American Water Resources McCullough, C. Mebane, J.C. T.R. Schueler, E.B. Sudduth Association 47:433-435. Lockwood, D.A. Essig, M.P. and C.J. Walsh. 2009. Twenty- Michel, D. and A. Pandya. 2009. Hicks, D. J. Sturdevant, E. J. six key research questions Troubled waters: Climate Materna, S.A. Spalding, J. Risley in urban stream ecology: An change, hydropolitics, and and M. Deppman. 2004. The assessment of the state of the transboundary resources. case for regime-based water science. Journal of the North Henry L. Stimson Center, quality standards. BioScience American Benthological Society Washington D.C. http://www. 54:155-161. 28:1080-1098. globalpolicy.org/images/pdfs/ Russi, D., P. ten Brink, A. Farmer, T. Wickham, J.D., and C.H. Flather. troubled_waters-complete.pdf Badura, D. Coates, J. Förster, R. 2013. Integrating biodiversity Naiman, R.J., J.J. Magnuson, D.M. Kumar and N. Davidson. 2013. and drinking water protection McKnight, J.A. Sanford and The economics of ecosystems goals through geographic J.R. Karr. 1995. Freshwater and biodiversity for water and analysis. Diversity and ecosystems and management: wetlands. IEEP, London and Distributions 19:1198-1207.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 37 Grand Challenge 3: Climate Change

We need to understand the impacts of climate change on our environment, including such aspects as disease transmission, air quality, water supply, ecosystems, fire, species survival, and pest risk. Further, we must develop a comprehensive strategy for managing natural resources to adapt to climate changes.

are known to have taken place in not only temperature change during the past 10,000 years even but also sea level rise and altered Framing the Issue while the climate was relatively storminess, make quantifying the stable. Present-day climate change, future impacts of climate change including but not limited to difficult. Natural and managed ecosystems change caused by our alteration Much of the challenge of are presently undergoing changes of greenhouse gas concentrations, understanding the interaction in many respects at rates and is almost certain to move the between climate change and magnitudes that mankind has Earth’s global mean temperature ecosystems is that present-day never previously witnessed. The of the past climate change is relatively small key drivers of these changes are 10,000 years (Marcott et al. 2013), and within the bounds of recent traceable to human civilization, and is likely to move it beyond the variability, while most projections climate change is one such driver. nominal 2°C (above preindustrial foresee much larger future changes. Climate change involve atmospheric temperatures) limit of the past few At the local level, changes in composition, temperature statistics, hundred thousand years (Masson- weather patterns over the past few rainfall statistics, sea level rise, Delmotte et al. 2013), and in decades are sometimes as much or the frequency and severity of some circumstances may cause more a product of natural variability extreme events, and many other global temperatures to exceed the as climate change. This makes it all characteristics of the climate system. bounds of the past few million the more challenging to distinguish The Earth’s climate is always years (Dowsett et al. 2010). The effects caused by climate change changing, and ecosystem changes wide range of future possibilities, from effects caused by other

38 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources external or internal drivers. Also, and providing recreation environment such as atmospheric climate change responses will likely opportunities. nitrogen deposition (Templer et al. not be linear, meaning that as the At the same time that we 2012). The permafrost underlying climate changes beyond its recent must understand how climate will the Arctic tundra has stored carbon geological envelope, many new and impact ecosystem structure and reserves on the same order of unforeseen ecosystem responses function, we will also benefit by magnitude as the total human are likely to emerge. understanding how ecosystems release of CO2 to the atmosphere As a society, we must seriously themselves have the potential to date. The melting of the tundra explore the potential impacts of to mitigate or exacerbate climate is therefore one of the largest climate change on ecosystem change through natural responses single threats to rapidly increase structure and function. Ecosystems and manag=ement choices. For the global atmospheric CO2 are critical components of cultural, example, because ecosystems store concentration (Schaefer et al. 2011). social, and economic systems. large quantities of carbon in soils Climate change affects Ecosystems produce an array of and biomass, many ecosystems agriculture directly because crops critical services that support our such as forests have the potential are sensitive to temperature and society, including but not limited to feedback positively or negatively precipitation and to extreme to regulation of water quantity on atmospheric CO2. Whether weather events such as intense and quality, carbon sequestration, such feedbacks are positive or events, flooding, frost, heat provision of renewable natural negative will depend both on forest waves, and drought. Climate change resources, harboring biodiversity, management and interactions with also affects agriculture indirectly supporting wildlife and fisheries, other human influences on the by changing the natural resource

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 39 (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) in Muskegon Lake, Michigan (USA). Climate-driven anomalies associated with global climate variability patterns (Linthicum et al. 2010) are also responsible for epidemic and epizootic events of both infectious and vector-borne pathogens including diarrheal diseases, cholera, bluetongue, Rift Valley fever, dengue, and malaria. Assessing risks and developing strategies to focus interdisciplinary research and to mitigate these complex systems against global health threats require adaptation in scientific and policy considerations base it is built upon, such as water and abundance of vectors such at all levels (Caceres 2012). available for irrigation. Regional as mosquitoes and ticks and Understanding the magnitude climate warming has already caused both native and exotic vertebrate and direction of the direct and snowpack in western mountain host species change risk profiles indirect effects of climate change ranges to melt more rapidly, causing for pathogen transmission and on ecosystems, combined with diminished dry-season streamflows subsequent diseases of humans, the effect of ecosystem changes and reduced water availability for livestock and wildlife (Tabachnick on climate, are among the most irrigation. Agriculture is perhaps 2010). Likewise, invasive species important questions facing the economic sector in the United and their negative impact on ecologists and natural resource States most vulnerable to climate recreation and economics is well scientists and managers in the 21st change; agriculture is the largest recognized, costing for example, the century. water user in the United States and Great Lakes Region ~$200 million accounts for 80-90% of consumptive dollars per year (Rothlisberger et water use in the western United al. 2012). Increasing globalization Current Capacity States (U.S. Department of of trade is enhancing the mobility Agriculture [USDA] 2012). of potentially invasive species, and Science Gaps Climate change affects the and climate change can make emergence and re-emergence of them more suited to a local Our knowledge about responses of diseases of humans, livestock and climate than the native species ecosystems to climate change lies other animals, as well as plants, (Drake et al. 2007, Litchman 2010, along two continua: from single and can be viewed under the Strain 2012). New waterborne components of climate change national and global concept of diseases and outbreaks (WBDOs) to the complete suite of climate One Health (2014)) and phenology are spreading in a similar way. change effects, and from the for plants and animals, the For example, Hong et al. (2006) response of individual organisms or central focus of the USA National have documented the presence characteristics to the response of Phenology Network (USA-NPN of a subtropical neurotoxin- entire ecosystems, including human 2014). Changes in distribution producing cyanobacterium components (Figure 3).

40 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources In general, our understanding Individual organisms Ecosystems of the response of individual or characteristics and societies organisms or characteristics to Single a single component of climate climate Knowledge change is relatively good, because variable level: good questions of this sort are amenable to experimentation and often a wide variety of observations are available. Although studies are emerging that account for effects over many generations of rapidly growing microorganisms (Lohbeck et al. 2012), it still remains a challenge to adequately approach Complete appropriately long timescales for suite of larger organisms (months, years climate means Knowledge and longer), as well as timescales extremes, level: poor and variability relevant for evolution (Vose et al. 2012). Figure 3. Level of knowledge concerning climate change impacts along climate Our knowledge is much more and environmental complexity continua. scarce when considering entire biomes. We have a general sense minimum zones in the oceans large-scale water , known of the effects of climate change (e.g., Gilly et al. 2013). Terrestrial as mesocosms (e.g., Riebesell et on ecosystems from the behavior ecosystems respond to increased al. 2010), larger or more complex of individual species. Increases in precipitation by increasing net systems are more difficult to treat primary production and carbon holistically. For example, in forest CO2 concentration generally lead to increases in water use efficiency, storage (Sala et al. 1988, Knapp and systems, climate change effects and often but not always enhance Smith 2001). However, ecosystems research has focused on individual net primary production and carbon are more than a collection of trees, usually seedlings or small storage (Andreu-Hayles et al. 2011, independently acting species, and individuals. Research on stands Keenan et al. 2013). Increases in our understanding of how species is rare due to the difficulty of temperature lead to phenological interactions will be impacted by manipulating most climate-change responses in freshwater (Berger climate change is rudimentary factors at large scales, and studies et al. 2010), marine (Winder et al. (see, e.g., discussion in Thingstad on interactive effects (involving 2012), and terrestrial environments et al. 2008). These interactions will multiple climate factors) are almost (Cleland et al. 2012). Increased be critical determinants of future non-existent (Vose et al. 2012). ocean acidification due to increased changes in ecosystem structure Most ecosystems are tightly linked and function, and thus direct and to human systems through the CO2 loading is hypothesized to cause negative effects on calcifying indirect effects on cultural, social, services they provide, yet funding organisms (Lohbeck et al. 2012), and economic systems. for human dimensions research and food web transfer between Scale issues remain a problem as it pertains to natural resource trophic levels (Rossoll et al. 2012) for most ecosystems studies. While management, such as ecosystem and may be partially responsible for some plankton ecosystems have services, natural resource policy, the rapid expansion of the been successfully manipulated in and environmental education,

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 41 is even more limited than the the first and best empirical data we that can explain observed changes biophysical research on these have to predict future responses. (i.e., hindcast), few if any biological systems. Ecosystem perturbations However, natural resource changes ecosystem models forecast complex driven by climate change will have are complex and are also strongly interactions with any accuracy (see direct impacts on natural resources affected by increasing human examples from marine ecosystem and thus on jobs, economic growth, populations searching for better models tested on an ecosystem- health, and well-being. While it standards of living, increased scale in mesocosms [Thingstad and is relatively straightforward to energy demands, housing, and Cuevas 2010]). predict how changing temperature food. Changing habitats will be a To predict future ecosystem and precipitation will alter water major factor in determining how changes, it is further necessary to quantity (Sun et al. 2011), it is climate change impacts the earth. predict future changes in climate. much harder to determine how Because future climate change will At present, such predictions natural resource productivity will not necessarily match past climate are rudimentary and uncertain. be sustained as water quality change, it is necessary to develop Challenges in estimating future and quantity change within a mechanistic knowledge of the emissions, and the strength of and across biomes. The United particular aspects of climate change climate feedbacks, mean that Nations Conference on Sustainable that are likely to have the greatest estimates of global temperatures Development (2012) and the United impacts. For example, the rapid in the year 2100 vary by several Nations Development Program increase in Oxygen Minimum Zones degrees Celsius. Scale issues are (Kjørven 2012) have both recently (OMZ) in the world oceans (e.g., important here as well: at the local noted many emerging research Gilly et al. 2013) is thought to be level, some aspects of climate topics that are essential to the related to climate change through change seem relatively certain such management and sustainability of changes in weather patterns in as temperature changes, while the natural resource base on our turn altering ocean currents. Many other aspects are much more poorly planet. ecosystem changes, such as earlier known. For example, just about As scientists attempt to fill growing season starts, earlier everywhere in the United States gaps by expanding our knowledge migration arrivals, and species there are some climate models that of individual effects, it is also distributions shifting upward project an increase in summertime possible to work from the observed in elevation and pole-ward, are precipitation and others that project effects of a changing climate. The explainable as a direct consequence a decrease (Scheff and Frierson response of ecosystems to past or of changing temperatures. However, 2012). ongoing climate change is often the more complex interactions Uncertainties in future climatic must be studied conditions are but one source of in the context of uncertainty. Universities and their entire ecosystems federal, state, non-profit and private to be understood, partners have a wealth of scientific because present expertise on how to quantify models fail to population, metapopulation and explain these community dynamics and the mechanisms. In relationship of fish and wildlife to fact, whereas habitats (e.g., Brodie et al. 2013, many ecosystem- Parn et al. 2011, Schwartz 2012, scale models have Weber and Brown 2013). For many been developed decades, scientists have been

42 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources studying and modeling factors which climate change impacts management. Policymakers tend that impact species' persistence can be reduced through adaptive to advocate the elimination of and then implementing necessary management. But this information risk, even though elimination conservation and management is critical to determine the benefits of risk may be cost-prohibitive actions (e.g., Langwig et al. 2012, and costs of proactively managing or technologically impractical. Peron and Koons 2012). The great climate change risks. In some cases, For example, many government challenge and gap, albeit a gap that it may be best to prevent emerging organizations (e.g., the Great Lakes is closing with modern technologies threats, while in other cases it may Restoration Initiative) and non- and improved statistical knowledge, be best to simply deal with the government organizations are is to quantify and understand consequences as they occur. calling for a “zero tolerance level” the uncertainty and variability in Ultimately, these combinations of of aquatic invasive species and population, metapopulation and uncertainty mean that the challenge water-borne disease outbreaks community dynamics, habitat of natural resource management in through early detection surveillance, ecology, and climate change and to a changing climate is fundamentally rapid response capability, and then incorporate that uncertainty an exercise in risk management. development of ballast water and variability into management Understanding the potential impact technology. Traditional sampling actions. We also need to bridge of climate change and the benefits practices of netting, trapping, gaps among the physical, biological, and costs of proactively managing or time series analysis will not and social sciences by encouraging climate change risks is the ultimate accomplish these goals. interdisciplinary teams that will link challenge for economic research on climate change models to habitat climate change. These challenges models to models of population and include: Research Needs community dynamics (e.g., Gieder ‹‹ What are the potential economic et al. 2014). As such integrated and Priorities impacts of climate change at models become accurate, we will local, state, regional, national, need to translate their predictions Much could be written about and global levels, and on into actionable knowledge for promising approaches for reducing individuals, businesses, and natural resource managers and the various knowledge gaps public institutions? policymakers. discussed in the previous section. What are distributional impacts Much research has focused ‹‹ Here we highlight some overarching of climate change? In other on the potential environmental research themes that apply across words, how does climate and economic impacts of climate many subdisciplines and offer the change affect populations in changes. How these impacts are greatest potential for practical different regions and income distributed spatially and across knowledge gains. groups? socioeconomic groups are not well understood. Are low-income ‹‹ What are the opportunity Observational and households more vulnerable to costs of proactive adaptive Experimental Approaches climate change? How will climate- management? Many of the greatest challenges in related changes impact the ‹‹ How do uncertainty and understanding the effects of climate economical basis for rural versus irreversibility affect the benefits change on natural resources involve urban communities, and thus and costs of climate change risk interactions between multiple demography and infrastructure? management? climate variables, natural processes, In addition, we have limited Society has historically not and society. Ecosystem responses to information about the extent to done a very good job with risk climate change are contingent upon

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 43 change as well as capturing ecosystem response to stochastic events along the way. Simulations and Modeling Computer models, whether statistical, dynamical, or mixed, provide useful tools for testing our understanding of the behavior of natural and human systems. If such models have been validated, they can serve as valuable planning and management tools utilizing long- term data sets (e.g., Dodds et al. 2012, Hunt and Nuttle 2007). Key needs are to: ‹‹ Develop mechanistic ecosystem models with predictive power comparable to statistical a large number of location, history, utilize confluences of modeling models, suitable for ecosystem and stochastic variables. Among the technologies in predicting management planning under highest-priority research challenges changes and are informative to uncertain or novel climatic are to: governments, agencies, and the futures; public at large; ‹‹ Identify signals of climate ‹‹ Improve climate-based models change that inform short-, ‹‹ Prioritize resources for research for areas where we presently intermediate-, and long-term in different geographical areas are expecting the most rapid predictions, forecasting, and on the basis of level of present global impacts, such as for the early warning involving whole- understanding, the speed of melting tundra where present system structure and function; environmental change, and models predict a third of the ‹‹ Define effects of predicted the potential for far-reaching global soil carbon may be impacts. climate change on nature- released as CO2 within decades human interactions; ‹‹ Develop practical technologies (e.g., Dorrepaal et al. 2009); ‹‹ Define interactions and effects for measuring, analyzing, ‹‹ Improve climate-based models of climate and habitat changes and assessing environmental for key insects, diseases, on population, meta-population, responses to climate change, disease vector dynamics, and and community dynamics especially on full ecosystem potential human, animal and and change at ecosystem levels to separate single species plant health impacts; vulnerability from system boundaries, along habitat ‹‹ Improve methods for resilience; and gradients, and within ocean quantifying carbon pools current systems, at local to ‹‹ Support long-term ecosystem and fluxes suitable for use regional scales; research that offers unique by resource managers and ‹‹ Develop early warning systems opportunities to study incorporation into ongoing (e.g., real-time analyses) that responses to recent climate inventory programs such as

44 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources those for fisheries, forestry, and model simulations, and natural agriculture; variability; ‹‹ Improve models for predicting ‹‹ Identify and estimate location- Expected Outcomes changing hydrologic regime specific climate drivers and impacts on natural and their uncertainties under a Climate change impacts are complex, managed ecosystems – e.g., range of future scenarios; that is, they cut cross traditional range or forest health and yield ‹‹ Define the impacts of population, community, and under warmer scenarios with uncertainty and irreversibility ecosystem boundaries, and they increased evapotranspiration; associated with climate are often not fully understood and change and their impacts on unless the cumulative impacts can ‹‹ Coordinate climate and management strategies and be quantified across large spatial ecosystem researchers and public policies for mitigating and long temporal scales. Research data for improved modeling of climate change impacts; efforts to address cumulative weather variability and extreme ‹‹ Develop improved impacts of climate change, and to cyclical events (wildfire, insect communication language and quantify and understand uncertainty and disease, cyclonic storms, education from the scientists/ related to the impacts, will enable etc.) and their alteration by researcher to the decision us to effectively use our limited predicted or forecast climate maker/politician/land manager, resources to prioritize mitigation change. and public at-large; and strategies and manage climate Management, Risk and ‹‹ Define best-practice tools and change risks at a scale that will lead to the best outcome. Research, Uncertainty processes for quantifying and assessing risk (vulnerability, teaching, and outreach are the Risk evaluation and management of susceptibility, and probability) key components to preparing for, natural resources in the context of under typical natural resource mitigating, and adapting to future climate change requires real-time management scenarios and climate changes. Better coupling monitoring data, comprehensive for better managing under of teaching (kindergarten through exploration of the consequence uncertain future conditions. graduate school) and outreach of management choices, and models for testing management hypotheses. Cross-disciplinary knowledge of the uncertainties associated with climate change and climate change impacts is especially poor, leading inevitably to poor or biased understanding of uncertainty by natural resource managers and other stakeholders. Among the highest-priority challenges are to: ‹‹ Determine the uncertainties in estimates of ongoing and future local and regional climate change that arise from potential errors in climate change drivers,

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 45 (to professionals, policymakers, of improved adaptation measures, ‹‹ Improved allocation of resources and the general public) functions public policy and management to manage risks associated with to research efforts are central tools for the natural resources climate change and variation; to achieving meaningful societal systems that we rely upon for ‹‹ Rational, scientifically informed outcomes. These coupling functions economic goods and services. public policy for addressing must operate multi-directionally, Adopting these policies and climate change issues; allowing for crosstalk and feedback measures will lead to more ‹‹ Discovery of new paradigms among functions that will enhance effective mitigation actions and supporting real-time the efficiency and effectiveness will better prepare us for climate management; and of the research, education and change risks. outreach enterprises. Specifically, the expected ‹‹ Discovery of new technologies for monitoring, evaluating, Presently, natural resource outcomes from adopting adapting and managing management agencies are recommendations in the NR resources, risk, and mitigation. addressing climate change impacts Roadmap include: and threats with the existing ‹‹ Improved outreach education References laws and regulations, including and communication of climate Andreu-Hayles, L., O. Planells, the Act, change effects and adaptation E. Gutierrez, E. Muntan, G. National Environmental Policy strategies; Helle, K.J. Anchukaitis and H.G. Act, Clean Water Act, and Clean ‹‹ Improved adaptation strategies Schleser. 2011. Long tree-ring Air Act. Industries, municipalities, th for all stakeholders; chronologies reveal 20 century land trusts, NGOs, and private increases in water-use efficiency citizens are also adapting in many ‹‹ Additional management and but no enhancement of tree instances with the knowledge evaluation tools for natural growth at five Iberian pine resource managers; forests. Global Change Biology and resources available to them. 17:2095-2112. University research, teaching and ‹‹ Improved mitigation and Berger, S.A., S. Diehl, H. Stibor, G. outreach programs will lead to the conflict resolution for resource Trommer and M. Ruhenstroth. development and implementation managers; 2010. Water temperature and stratification depth independently shift cardinal events during plankton spring succession. Global Change Biology 16:1954-1965. Brodie, J.H., M. Johnson, P. Mitchell, K. Zager, M. Proffitt, M. Hebblewhite, B. Kauffman, J. Johnson, C. Bissonette, J. Bishop, J. Gude, K. Herbert, M. Hersey, P.M. Hurley, S. Lukacs, E. McCorquodale, J. McIntire, H. Nowak, D. Smith and P.J. White. 2013. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores and weather on adult female elk survival across western . Journal of Applied Ecology 50:295-305. Caceres, S.B. 2012. Climate change

46 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources and animal diseases: making the case for adaptation. Animal Health Review 13:209-222. Cleland, E.E., J.M. Allen, T.M. Crimmins, J.A. Dunne, S. Pau, S.E. Travers, E.S. Zavaleta and E.M. Wolkovich. 2012. Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change. Ecology 93:1765-1771. Dodds, W.K., C.T. Robinson, E.E. Gaiser, G.J.A. Hansen, H. Powell, J.M. Smith, N.B. Morse, S.L. Johnson, S.V. Gregroy, T. Bell, T.K. Kratz and W.H. McDowell. 2012. Surprises and insights from long-term aquatic data sets and experiments. BioScience 62:709-721. Gilly, W.F., J.M. Beman, S.Y. Litvin Keenan, T.F., D.Y. Hollinger, G. Bohrer, Dorrepaal, E., S. Toet, R.S.P. van and B.H. Robison. 2013. D. Dragoni, J.W. Munger, H.P. Logtestijn, E. Swart, M.J. van de Oceanographic and biological Schmid and A.D. Richardson. Weg, T.V. Callaghan and R. Aerts. effects of shoaling of the 2013. Increase in forest water- 2009. Carbon respiration from Oxygen Minimum Zone. Annual use efficiency as atmospheric subsurface peat accelerated Review of Marine Science concentrations by climate warming in the 5:393-420. rise. Nature 499:324-327. subarctic. Nature 460:616-619. Hong, Y., A. Steinman, B. Biddanda, Kjørven, O. 2012. United Nations Dowsett, H., M. Robinson, A. R. Rediske and G. Fahnenstiel. Development Programme: Haywood, U. Salzmann, D. 2006. Occurrence of the toxin- Case Studies of Sustainable Hill, L. Sohl, M. Chandler, producing cyanobacterium Development in Practice. One M. Williams, K. Foley and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii United Nations Plaza, New York, D. Stoll. 2010. The PRISM3D in Mona and Muskegon Lakes, NY 10017. 69 p. paleoenvironmental Michigan. Journal of Great Lakes Knapp, A.K., and M.D. Smith. reconstruction. Stratig Research 32:645-652. 2001. Variation among 7:123-139. Hunt, J.H., and W. Nuttle. 2007. biomes in temporal dynamics Drake, L.A., M.A. Doblin and F.C. Florida Bay Science Program: A of aboveground primary Dobbs. 2007. Potential microbial Synthesis of Research on Florida production. Science 291:481-484. bioinvasions via ships’ ballast Bay. Fish and Wildlife Research Langwig, K.E., W.F. Frick, J.T. Bried, water, sediment, and biofilm. Institute Technical Report TR- A.C. Hicks, T.H. Kunz and A.M. Marine Pollution Bulletin 11. Florida Fish and Wildlife Kilpatrick. 2012. Sociality, 55:333-341. Conservation Commission, St. density-dependence and Gieder, K.D., S.M. Karpanty, Petersburg, FL. microclimates determine the J.D. Fraser, D.H. Catlin, B.T. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate persistence of populations Gutierrez, N.G. Plant, A.M. Change. 2013. Climate Change suffering from a novel fungal Turecek and E.R. Thieler. 2014. 2013: The Physical Science Basis. disease, white-nose syndrome. A Bayesian network approach Contribution of Working Group Ecology Letters 15:1050-1057. to predicting nest presence of 1 to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Linthicum, K., A. Anyamba, J. the federally-threatened piping Report Paleoclimate Archives, Chretien, J. Small, C.J. Tucker plover (Charadrius melodus) Cambridge University Press., and S.C. Britch. 2010. The role using barrier island features. Cambridge, UK and New York, of global climate patterns Ecological Modelling 276:38–50. NY. Available at http://ipcc.ch. in the spatial and temporal

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 47 distribution of vector-borne Riebesell, U., V. Fabry, L. Hansson Noormets, J.M. Vose, B. Wilske, disease. Pages 3-13 in P.W. and J.P. Gattuso, editors. M. Zeppel, Y. Zhang and Z. Atkinson, editor, Vector Biology, 2010. Guide to Best Practices Zhang. 2011. A general Ecology and Control. Springer, for Ocean Acidification predictive model for estimating New York, NY. Research and Data Reporting. monthly ecosystem Litchman, E. 2010. Invisible Publications Office of the evapotranspiration. invaders: non-pathogenic European Union, Luxembourg. Ecohydrology 4:245-255. invasive microbes in aquatic Rossoll, D., R. Bermúdez, H. Hauss, Tabachnick, W.J. 2010. Challenges and terrestrial ecosystems. K.G. Schulz, U. Riebesell, U. in predicting climate and Ecology Letters 13:1560-1572. Sommer and M. Winder. 2012. environmental effects on vector- Lohbeck, K.T., U. Riebesell Ocean acidification-induced food borne disease episystems and T.B.H. Reusch. 2012. quality deterioration constrains in a changing world. Journal Adaptive evolution of a key trophic transfer. PLoS ONE of Experimental Biology phytoplankton species to ocean 7:e34737. 213:946-945. acidification. Nature Geoscience Rothlisberger, J.D., D.C. Finnoff, Templer, P.H., R.W. Pinder, and 5:346-351. R.M. Cooke and D.M. Lodge. Goodale. 2012. Effects of Marcott, S.A., J.D. Shakun, P.U. 2012. Ship-borne nonindigenous nitrogen deposition on Clark and A.C. Mix. 2013. A species diminish Great Lakes greenhouse-gas fluxes for reconstruction of regional ecosystem services. Ecosystems forests and grasslands of North and global temperature for 15(3):1-15. America. Frontiers in Ecology the past 11,300 years. Science Sala, O.E., W.J. Parton, L.A. Joyce and and the Environment 10: 339:1198-1201. W.K. Lauenroth. 1988. Primary 547-553. Masson-Delmotte, V., M. Schulz, production of the central Thingstad, T.F., R.G.J. Bellerby, G. A. Abe-Ouchi, J. Beer, A. grassland region of the United Bratbak, K.Y. Børsheim, J.K. Ganopolski, J.F.G. Rouco, E. States: Spatial pattern and Egge, M. Heldal, A. Larsen, C. Neill, J. Nejstgaard, S. Norland, Jansen et al. 2013. Climate major controls. Ecology 69:4045. R.A. Sandaa, E.F. Skjoldal, T. Change 2013: The Physical Schaefer, K., T.J. Zhang, L. Bruhwiler Tanaka, R. Thyrhaug and B. Science Basis. Contribution of and A.P. Barrett. 2011. Amount Töpper. 2008. Counterintuitive Working Group I to the Fifth and timing of permafrost carbon carbon-to-nutrient coupling in Assessment Report of the release in response to climate an Arctic pelagic ecosystem. Intergovernmental Panel on warming. Tellus B 63:165-180. Nature 455:387-390. Climate Change. Paleoclimate Schwartz, M.W. 2012. Using niche Archives, Cambridge University Thingstad, T.F., and L.A. Cuevas. models with climate projections 2010. Nutrient pathways Press, Cambridge, UK and New to inform conservation York, NY. through the microbial food web: management decisions. principles and predictability One Health Initiative. 2014. Online at Biological Conservation 155: discussed, based on five www.onehealthinitiative.com. 149-156. different experiments. Aquatic Parn, H., T.H. Ringsby, H. Jensen Scheff, J., and D.M.W. Frierson. 2012. Microbiology and Ecology and B.E. Saether. 2011. Spatial Robust future precipitation 61:249–260. heterogeneity in the effects of declines in CMIP5 largely reflect United Nations Conference on climate and density-dependence the poleward expansion of . on dispersal in a house sparrow model subtropical dry zones. 2012. A Conference Report. metapopulation. Proceedings of Geophysical Research Letters United Nations Conference on the Royal Society B 279: 144-152. 39:18. Sustainable Development, Rio Peron, G., and D.N. Koons. 2012. Strain, D. 2012. Researchers set de Janeiro, , June 20-22. Integrated modeling of course to blockade ballast USA-NPN 2014. The USA National communities: parasitism, invaders. Science 336:664-665. Phenology Network. Online at competition, and demographic Sun, G., K. Alstad, J. Chen, S. Chen, http://www.usanpn.org/ synchrony in sympatric ducks. C.R. Ford, G. Lin, C. Liu, N. Lu, USDA. 2012a. Irrigation and Ecology 93:2456-2464. S.G. McNulty, H. Miao, A. Water Use. U.S. Department

48 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources of Agriculture, Economic Synthesis for the U.S. Forest in shallow lakes. Transactions of Research Service, Washington, Sector. Pacific Northwest the American Fisheries Society DC. ers.usda.gov/topics/ Research Station General 142:471-484. farm-practices-management/ Technical Report PNW-GTR-870. Winder, M., S. Berger, A. irrigation-water-use.aspx USDA Forest Service, Portland, Lewandowska, N. Aberle, K. (accessed March 5, 2013) OR. 265 p. Lengfellner, U. Sommer and S. Vose, J.M., D.L. Peterson and T. Weber, M.J., and M.L. Brown. Diehl. 2012. Spring phenological Patel-Weynand. 2012. Effects 2013. Density dependence responses of marine and of Climatic Variability and and environmental conditions freshwater plankton to changing Change on Forest Ecosystems: regulate recruitment and first- temperature and light conditions. A Comprehensive Science year growth of common carp Marine Biology 159:2491-2501.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 49 Grand Challenge 4: Agriculture

We must develop a sustainable, profitable, and environmentally responsible agriculture industry.

specifically on creating sustainable agriculture. However, we would Framing the Issue be remiss if we did not highlight the importance of developing a sustainable agricultural industry The Delphi survey named to the sustainability of our natural agriculture as one of the six grand resources. Furthermore, we must challenges of natural resources. We also point out that agriculture have chosen in the NR Roadmap cannot exist without the natural to reference the ESCOP Science resources base upon which it exists, Roadmap for Agriculture (APLU namely clean and abundant water, 2010) rather than writing a chapter healthy soils, pollinators, genetic biodiversity, and a stable climate. References To demonstrate the degree Association of Public and Land-grant of overlap between the natural Universities, Experiment Station resources and agriculture, we Committee on Organization have examined the goals under and Policy—Science and Technology Committee. 2010. the challenges in both roadmaps A Science Roadmap for Food and looked for commonalities. We and Agriculture. Association present the areas of overlap in of Public and Land-grant Appendix C. Universities, Washington DC.

50 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 51 Grand Challenge 5: Energy

We must identify new and alternative renewable energy sources and improve the efficiency of existing renewable resource-based energy to meet increasing energy demands while reducing the ecological footprint of energy production and consumption.

Between 1980 and 2000, U.S. need to focus our research. This energy usage grew 21%. Though is meant to be a high-level, broad Framing the Issue the past decade has seen some overview of the intersection of plateauing of energy consumption energy and natural resources. By in the U.S., energy consumption necessity, most topics are covered Throughout history, all civilizations is expected to rise again as the briefly. Furthermore, the chapter have depended on some type economy cycles back into a strong is not intended to be all inclusive, of energy, but modern society growth period. Even now, the U.S. but to focus particularly on new consumes vast quantities of is increasing exports of natural gas. and developing energy sources. energy. Energy consumption To support this current and growing That said, some traditional energy is a primary base upon which consumption, the U.S. expends a the U.S. economy rests. sources are raising new questions great deal of capital and resources From transportation to food related to natural resources. In to produce or purchase energy production and consumption to particular, hydrofracking has raised sources. climate-controlled buildings to a variety of new natural resources manufacturing to delivery of tap Energy production and issues. This chapter does not water to households, Americans transformation, no matter the address research related to energy could not live in the manner they source, creates stresses on the efficiency although there have are accustomed if not for large environment. This chapter examines been remarkable gains in this area energy production, availability, and those impacts and ask what gaps over the past 20 years. Continued consumption. in knowledge exist and where we improvements in energy efficiency

52 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources represent a key opportunity for potential releases of radiation and habitat fragmentation, and meeting energy demands of the and the concomitant dangers of water contamination. Hydrofracking world’s growing human population. those releases as well as release may add to this list of concerns When considering the impact of excess heat into the atmosphere for natural gas production, so of energy production and use on and water bodies. Coal production additional research will be needed natural resources, it is useful to raises concerns about mining and in that area. The biggest challenge divide the sources of energy into its effects on local ecosystems, for these traditional carbon-based non-renewable and renewable. particularly water contamination, energy sources, however, has Non-renewable energy sources , and loss of biodiversity. been the growing knowledge and include traditional sources such as Historically, its associated air evidence of their impact on climate coal, , natural gas, and pollution has been costly to the change. Concern about climate nuclear. Renewable energy sources environment, particularly in the change has led the coal-related include , wind, solar, form of acid rain down-wind industries to research carbon geothermal, marine, and biomass/ from coal burning facilities. Oil sequestration as a tool to reduce bioenergy. production and delivery comes with their carbon emissions. Because The impacts on natural concerns about oil spills, water this technology is still under resources and society from the contamination, habitat disturbance, development, additional research extraction, production, and use of , and noise. Natural on impacts of natural resources of non-renewable energy are fairly gas production and delivery brings carbon sequestration from coal will well-known. Nuclear energy risks concerns about air pollution, land be needed.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 53 Renewable energy research coal, petroleum, and natural gas history and produces a great deal during the coming decades will can disturb the environment at, of electricity, particularly in the need to balance various needs above, and below the earth’s Pacific Northwest. There are very including environmental stress, surface. The direct economic costs few new opportunities to expand public perceptions and acceptability, of development, e.g., environmental hydroelectric power in the U.S. regional differences, economics, permitting, infrastructure However, operating hydropower technical feasibility, geopolitics, and development, labor, and equipment, dams as a system, there is potential fluctuations in the supply, demand, are quantifiable. The externalities, to increase the overall capacity and price of nonrenewable energy. such as negative impacts associated (i.e., meeting peak loads) of the In sum, the environmental impacts with contaminated ground and hydropower system. Furthermore, of carbon-base energy extraction surface water, noise and air many small and large dams are are highly complex and require pollution, temporary and permanent being removed for environmental multi-disciplinary input. Similarly, changes to the landscape, reasons as their operation licenses the varied factors associated with biodiversity, and impacts to expire (Poff and Hart 2002, Gowan renewable energy development natural resources are more difficult et al. 2006). The rivers that can require broad and multi-disciplinary to valuate. These often require be cost effectively dammed have consideration. There is no single- , life cycle been harnessed. The capital cost of best or one-size-fits-all answer. analysis, social science and human hydroelectric power, along with the dimensions studies. environmental costs (particularly There is a great national interest to riverine fish and other aquatic Gap Analysis in developing means of renewable resources) is increasingly difficult energy. Hydroelectric power is to justify in the U.S. This notion perhaps the most mature of these is evidenced by the lack of new Energy production is a stressor areas. Deriving its energy from the and removal of some existing with respect to natural resources. combination of gravity and water, hydroelectric structures. In areas Exploration and development of hydroelectric power has a long where hydroelectric power will be maintained, substantial challenges and knowledge gaps remain with respect to fish passage (both upstream and downstream) and effects on aquatic resources from hydrology and hydroperiods that differ from natural flows (Renöfält et al. 2009). Two related energy sources may largely replace new dams. Pump storage facilities are viable environmentally. These require a major capital outlay and consume large amounts of land. These systems work by using two reservoirs, one elevated with respect to the other. At night, when electric power demand and rates are low, water is pumped to the

54 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources upward reservoir. During the day, turbines may represent the greatest substantial (Bedard et al. 2010, when electric power demand is impact on wildlife (Arnett et al. Boehlert and Gill 2010). These peaking—and most costly—water is 2007, Pearce-Higgins 2009, Sovacool include extraction of energy from released from the upper reservoir to 2009). Loss and fragmentation waves, tides, ocean currents, generate power. Given the advances of habitat due to construction, temperature gradients, and salinity in real time metering, use of pump increased human access and the gradients. Offshore wind is an storage facilities may increase. footprint of the facilities can be important resource that is included Secondly, in-stream turbines significant issues in some habitats. here because the technology and that can be used in both riverine Thus, there are knowledge gaps potential environmental effects and tidal situations are showing with respect to wind farm siting, differ from those in terrestrial potential (Khan et al. 2009). turbine design and long-term installations, but the full realm of is also a proven operations. Some studies suggest offshore wind impacts are not well technology that is expanding that bat mortality frequently occurs understood. In general, research dramatically worldwide, and during periods of low wind and on environmental effects of marine is the most rapidly growing energy production suggesting that renewable energy in has renewable energy source in the curtailment experiments might be moved forward more rapidly than U.S. Most studies of impacts of possible to reduce impacts (Arnett that in North America (see, for wind developments on wildlife et al. 2007). Research on alerting example European Marine Energy have been short-term in nature and deterring mechanisms such as Centre [EMEC] 2005, Maunsell and and longer term studies will be visual or auditory approaches may METOC PLC 2007), but this summary needed to better elucidate patterns also help reduce conflicts (Arnett et will focus on North American. and develop models predicting al. 2007). Marine renewable energy sources habitat fragmentation and other Several sources of marine are not without environmental and disturbance effects (Arnett et al. renewable energy are under social effects (Pelc and Fujita 2002, 2007). Wind energy causes both development or consideration, Boehlert and Gill 2010, Henkel et direct and indirect impacts on and the potential resources are al. 2013). Early development of ecosystems and wildlife species. Wind energy developments affect the visual landscape as wind towers and wind farms are visible for many miles. Other direct effects include mortality of birds and bats that are struck by turbines or by collisions with other structures associated with wind development (i.e., towers, fences, transmission lines) (Arnett et al. 2007, Smallwood and Thelander 2008). Indirect effects of wind energy are less well understood and likely pose greater impacts on wildlife populations than the direct effects (Arnett et al. 2007). Disturbance of wildlife and avoidance of areas in proximity to

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 55 tidal energy, for example, used the Management [BOEM] 2011, Boehlert beneficial increase in biodiversity barrage, basically a dam across a et al. 2013) generally show that in these systems (Inger et al. tidal area that allowed water in we are in an early stage of our 2009, Witt et al. 2012). Langhamer on incoming tides but held it on understanding, and that research and Wilhelmsson (2009) noted an outgoing tides and used the trapped is needed to identify the stressors increase in fish and crab abundance water height differential to generate that may have serious impacts and near anchors for a wave energy electricity. Much like traditional rule out those that will not; several development, and by engineering dams, these are in disfavor due to common threads of potential the foundations with holes, noted a their environmental effects, and in- impacts to natural resources cross five-fold increase in the abundance stream turbines have taken their the various technologies (Table 1). of commercially important crab place. More recent development Some effects of developing species compared to nearby of new marine technologies (e.g., marine renewable energy in marine areas. Similarly, floating devices wave, tidal, ocean current, offshore systems have been cited as positive or structures in the water column wind, ocean thermal energy or beneficial. Many of these can aggregate organisms through conversion) is accelerating, but effects have to do with structural the “FAD” or fish aggregation examination of environmental changes to the marine environment device effect (Addis et al., 2006). effects is just beginning; the associated with anchors or drifting Larger-scale installations of marine potential impacts on natural structures. In the case of wave renewable energy devices may also resources represent an important energy development, the majority act as de facto marine reserves due part of these undertakings. The of installations will take place to potential exclusion of fishing level of interest in these impacts on relatively featureless sand or within deployment areas (DOE is shown by a report on possible mud-sand bottoms. Placement 2009). environmental effects documented of anchors, in many cases large Biomass fuels, derived from in response to an act of Congress concrete and steel structures, plant materials and animal wastes, (Department of Energy [DOE] 2009). will have an “artificial reef” can provide a significant portion Review (e.g., Boehlert and effect, changing bottom type and of the nation’s renewable energy Gill 2010) and reports of workshops consequently the communities of (Energy Information Administration (Boehlert et al. 2008, Polagye et al. organisms that are found there. [EIA] 2008). While many definitions 2011, Bureau of Ocean and Energy Some have cited this change as a of “biomass” are available, in

Table 1: A summary of marine renewable energy sources and examples of knowledge gaps regarding possible environmental effects, with references for further reading.

Technology Examples of Environmental Knowledge Gaps Reference

Wave Energy Marine mammal and endangered fish interactions; alterations to benthic Boehlert et al. 2008, DOE ecosystems; impacts on near-shore sand transport; electromagnetic effects; 2009, Boehlert et al. 2013 acoustic effects Tidal Energy Acoustic effects, electromagnetic effects, benthic changes; fish and marine DOE 2009, Polagye et mammal impacts al. 2011 Offshore Wind Seabird interactions; lights; acoustics; cetacean impacts with in-water Arnett et al. 2007, BOEM structures 2011, Boehlert et al. 2013 Ocean Current Energy Entanglement, pelagic aggregation and community effects, elec- DOE 2009 tromagnetic effects, acoustic effects Ocean Thermal Energy Thermal discharge effects, noise, entrainment and impingement DOE 2009 Conversion

56 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources the case of bio-energy it basically of achieving the maximum possible encompasses the parts of plants rates of use. Forestry-based that are generally indigestible biomass – whether as bark, leaves, (non-food) and from which no branches, etc., or as clean woody other value added products such fiber, is one of the most important as lumber and engineered panel sources. Forest-based biomass is products can be derived. Biomass readily available throughout the from the unused stems and leaves year. This seasonal availability of plants, bark, needles, roots, is advantageous as compared shells, etc. can be burned directly, to agriculture-based biomass pelletized, or converted to liquid sources, which generally have fuels. Additionally, biomass can be fixed and limited annual growing converted to synthesis gas (syngas) and harvesting seasons. While in a gasifier and subsequently the corn-based ethanol is a bio-, syngas can be burned, transported, it is not biomass derived. Biomass or compressed and stored. Clean energy can be generated from plant low-value wood, such as that from materials and animals wastes in a Ash content minimization is one of thinning southern pines is also a number of ways including anaerobic the key factors related to energy candidate for bio-energy production. digestion, gasification, direct from biomass. Levels on the order The Gulfsouth and Southeast region combustion, co-firing (with coal or of 1% ash cause major tool wear, of the U.S. is a strong candidate natural gas), and combined heat poison catalysts, create enormous for biomass-related research as it and power generation. There have spent ash and boiler slag disposal has warm temperatures and ample been substantial advances over problems, etc. In general, wood as rainfall for biomass production. The the past two decades in making a biomass source for other energy availability of marginal land is a key biomass generation more efficient technologies such as liquid fuels, to large scale biomass production. and cleaner and this will continue briquettes, pellets, lead other If biomass is to achieve widescale to be a critical research need into biomass types in commercialization. acceptance as an energy source, it the future (Tilman et al. 2009). Other key issues are continuity of must be competitive for land use; Comparatively low ash content is supply and transportation distance that is, its cultivation must be more another benefit of forest-based as forest residues are bulky and financially attractive than the crop biomass. Clean woody fiber, that given their often high moisture with the next highest value. Prime is debarked wood, has one of the content are expensive to move. farmland, developed real estate, lowest ash contents of all bio-based Further reference is available from and lakefront recreational areas for plant materials (<0.5% on a dry the Journal of Forestry, special example are worth more per acre basis). Bark, leaves, and needles issue related to biomass use for those uses than they would be from trees as well as plant-based and feedstock issues (Society of if deployed for biomass production. stems, stalks, husks, shells, etc., American Foresters 2011). At present, biomass is typically commonly have ash contents above New technologies for bio-fuel a coproduct from agriculture and 1%. Due to its ready availability, production are rapidly emerging forestry sources. That is, corn, transportation infrastructure, and and represent a significant focus soybeans, paper, lumber, etc. are existing conversion facilities such for research and development the primary products and burning as gassifiers, burners, and boilers, (Abbasi and Abbasi 2010). These or baling of forest and agriculture as well as nearby markets, basic emerging technologies include residues is performed as a means wood energy is well developed. microalgae (Chisti 2007), fuel cells

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 57 [NRC] 2011). Sources of biomass (Wu 2000, NRC 2011, Rupp et can be harvested at unsustainable al. 2012). Research is needed rates and their production and to evaluate and mitigate these extraction can damage ecosystems. impacts. There are many historical examples Biomass fuels derived from in which forests have been wholly forest resources may also pose denuded in support of heat energy substantial environmental issues production. Production of energy (NRC 2011). Much of these fuels from biomass may also consume are likely to come from non- large amounts of water and industrial private forestlands (U.S. produce harmful air pollution or net Forest Service [USFS] 2001) that greenhouse gas emissions (Table 2). are primarily regulated at the Three areas warrant special mention state level, resulting in substantial because of their potential impacts variation in permissible practices on natural resources. across jurisdictions. Two primary Production agriculture dedicated issues are supply dependability for converting directly to biomass production may have and environmental sustainability to electricity (Chaudhuri and substantial ramifications for natural (NRC 2011). Environmental Lovley 2003), and development resources depending on the crops sustainability is maintained of engineered yeast for increased produced and the production by state-specific BMPs, third- ethanol yields (Alper et al. 2006) systems used and may increase party forest certification, or by among others. In some cases, fuel net greenhouse gas emissions (NRC forest management plans. These production may be coupled with 2011). The use of non-agricultural approaches seek to minimize short- water treatment plants because oil lands or conversion of conservation term impacts and avoid long-term can be extracted from microbes that easements (i.e., Conservation deterioration of key indicators of digest sludge. Reserve Program lands) for sustainability—water quality, soil Biomass energy has production may impact biodiversity productivity, wildlife habitat, and environmental risks that need to be (Bies 2006, Fargione et al. 2009, biodiversity. Forest biofuels that mitigated and addressed in energy Rupp et al. 2012), wildlife habitats, rely on removal of timber residues policy (National Research Council water quality and soil productivity such as branches, bark and tree

Table 2: A summary of possible negative environmental effects from biomass energy production, with references for further reading.

Possible Environmental Effects Reference

Air quality and net carbon emissions Bain 2003, Tilman 2009, NRC 2011 Biodiversity Bies 2006; Fargione et al. 2009, 2011; Webster et al. 2010; NRC 2011 Wildlife habitat loss and degradation Abbasi and Abbasi 2000, Wu 2000; Rowe et al. 2009, Tilman 2009, NRC 2011 Nutrient removal and loss Pimentel et al. 1983, National Academy of Sciences [NAS] 2003, Eisenbies et al. 2009, NRC 2011 Soil erosion and run-off Abbasi and Abbasi 2010 Water quality and use Pimentel et al. 2004, Schilling 2009, Murphy and Allen 2011, NRC 2011

58 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources tops that are commonly left on the ground are likely to decrease ground-level habitat for wildlife and arthropods (Webster et al. 2010, Rupp et al. 2012) and reduce site productivity (Eisenbies et al. 2009) and water quality (Schilling 2009). Forest biofuel production that removes logs and snags may reduce biodiversity (NRC 2011, Rupp et al. 2012). However, converting woody material into products and biofuels and subsequently intentionally managing and replanting the forest is more favorable for carbon tracking and sequestration than letting the forest decay. For additional information about water chemistry, and water level Finally, substantial research this complex issue, the reader is maintenance and evaporative is needed to quantify policy referred to the Journal of Forestry loss of open systems especially options associated with biomass special issue (Society of American in arid regions most suitable energy production. These analyses Foresters 2011). for cultivation, and wastewater should examine trade-offs Biofuels produced from pollution of aquatic systems between economic benefits and microalgae and cyanobacteria (Murphy and Allen 2011). Supply environmental costs at appropriate offer high biomass productivity and of key nutrients affect scales over the life cycle of the and can be grown in cultivation net energy production and may fuels (NRC 2011) and develop ponds, bioreactors or on non- pose substantial environmental uniform indicators for monitoring arable lands using waste and saline costs depending on the source and environmental effects of biofuels water (NRC 2012). Algal biofuels are production system used (Cai et al. (van Dam et al. 2008). Landscape among the least well-developed 2011). Conversion of land (primarily planning approaches that integrate renewable and substantial grasslands and rangelands) for bioenergy into agriculture and forest research and development is algal biofuel production impacts management are likely to lead to needed in the areas of strain terrestrial (Fargione et al. 2011) and development of biofuel industries selection, use of wastewater aquatic ecosystems (NRC 2011) and that result in net environmental and recycling of harvested water results in land-use changes with benefits. and recycling of nutrients (NRC ramifications for natural-resource Solar energy production is 2012). Use and production of algal based communities (Darzins et rapidly increasing in the U.S. biofuels may cause significant al. 2010). Finally, whether algae primarily in the form of solar environmental impacts. Water would be burned, extracted for oil, photovoltaic and solar thermal quantity and quality are critical fermented into , or other, its systems. Solar systems adapted to concerns in several aspects of high water content is problematic. the built environment (i.e., roof- algal biofuel production, including The water must be removed, an top solar panels) are assumed to amounts of water added to or energy intensive process, for any have minimal impact on natural purged to maintain appropriate type of fuel development. resources (Katzner et al. 2013).

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 59 are decades away at best, but they help exemplify the need for consideration of changes to the grid. is among the best developed renewable energy sources. Geothermal energy uses the earth’s heat as an energy source and is developed in three general ways: geothermal springs and hot dry rock geothermal for electricity production, and ground- source heat pumps for direct heating and cooling of buildings and homes. Environmental impacts of geothermal energy production depends on the technology used to convert the heat to electricity and The primary environmental refining the raw materials to make the type of cooling technology used. issue associated with industrial- the photovoltaics are not well Geothermal energy production has scale solar systems is the large documented. the potential to impact both water collection areas required for Distributed versus centralized quantity and quality. Because some deploying the systems for energy power systems is an area of current water is lost to steam, geothermal capture and research. Smaller, distributed plants require additional water to (NRC 2010) and the resulting generation systems place different maintain underground reservoirs ecological and environmental demands on the electrical grid. and prevent ground , impacts. The principal region to Distributed systems are often and some cooling system deploy solar energy systems in less efficient than centralized technologies require substantial the U.S. is in the desert Southwest generation facilities however, less water inputs. Some plants use and a typical system may cover transmission infrastructure is treated wastewater to maintain more than a square mile of land required. Ultimately, if technologies reservoir levels, but no cases of resulting in wildlife habitat loss such as solar panels and residential water contamination have been and degradation. and hydrogen turbines are perfected, documented in the U.S. (National transmission lines associated then every household could be its Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL] with these developments cause own generation point. Similarly, 2012). Open-loop systems emit additional habitat loss and there are active discussions related , carbon dioxide, fragmentation. Furthermore, to electric cars wherein they could ammonia, , and boron, arid areas where solar systems be plugged in and recharged at which may contribute to acid rain. are most likely to be deployed night (when overall grid demand Land use is another potential issue commonly have high biodiversity is low), driven to work, then with geothermal energy production and endemism (Katzner et al. plugged in such that the battery because plants have large footprints 2013). The external costs of solar discharges in part to the grid (when and are frequently located in energy production, such as those overall grid demand is high), then remote, environmentally sensitive associated with mining and driven home. These possibilities areas.

60 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Regardless of energy or resource issues; some of these existing markets but require bioenergy type a variety of issues can only be addressed with process, transportation, or must be addressed. These include cooperation among natural resource combustion modifications. compliance with or influencing professionals, policy makers, ‹‹ Identify opportunities to rules and regulations have been engineers, etc. improve redundancy and developed over time that apply capacity in the electrical grid. directly to the energy sector and its Improve understanding of costs and benefits of energy ‹‹ Scale up from bench-top to pilot relationship with natural resources. development and use and public level conversion technologies, The environmental costs associated perceptions related to energy. on the path toward with any energy type need to be commercialization. addressed. Air pollution, water ‹‹ Conduct full life-cycle analyses pollution, noise, light pollution, land of costs and benefits of Minimize impacts of increasing changes, and public perception all different energy sources at energy demands on natural must be addressed constructively. local, regional and national resources. scales. ‹‹ Develop uniform indicators, ‹‹ Quantify trade-offs among such as life cycle analysis Research Needs land/sea-use alternatives (i.e., scoring or reporting of and Priorities fisheries, forestry, grazing) in environmental effects of energy areas that may be developed development and use. for energy production. Demand for energy in the U.S. and ‹‹ Quantify biodiversity impacts of ‹‹ Conduct economic analyses globally is expected to increase energy development and use regarding present and (e.g., slash and coarse woody 56% by 2040 (EIA 2013). Increasing forecasted future energy debris removal for biofuels; demand will necessitate increased production costs compared fish passage and hydrological production of alternative energy to the projected costs of changes at hydroelectric power sources while at the same time renewable energy types. facilities; land conversion for concerns regarding greenhouse gas fuel production and facility emissions and other environmental ‹‹ Develop new and more efficient siting). and land-use impacts are likely renewable energy supply to lead to increased efficiencies systems. ‹‹ Quantify behavioral changes in our current energy sources ‹‹ Identify and test new bioenergy and mortality of organisms and changes in public preference systems especially from waste associated with energy among available sources of energy. streams of existing land development and use (e.g., Prioritizing research needs will management activities. bird and bat mortality at wind turbines; marine help lead to the development ‹‹ Identify and test new or more mammal and fish attraction of more efficient and effective efficient feedstocks production or avoidance of tidal energy environmental policies related to and conversion systems for facilities; relationship of animal energy production and use. Here bioenergy. we propose research themes and movements to electromagnetic ‹‹ Develop marine renewable objectives for identifying and field changes). energy sources. reducing the impacts of energy ‹‹ Identify sources and quantify development and use on natural ‹‹ Identify and develop markets water and air pollution resources and society. Some of for renewable energy. Many associated with energy these relate solely to natural such markets are similar to production.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 61 ‹‹ Quantify water demand for can only be met through a better likely to increase in this sector, steam production and cooling of understanding by all parties. necessitating increased funding geothermal, biofuels, solar and for internships and fellowships. ‹‹ The National Renewable Energy traditional energy sources (coal, Laboratory (U.S. Department of 3. Broadening college-level natural gas, nuclear). Energy) reports that renewable requisite curriculum beyond ‹‹ Understand public’s perceptions energy and energy efficiency natural-resource-specific of alternative energy sources research and development is content to include a greater and barriers to adoption of only part of the new energy emphasis on public policy energy conservation practices. future equation. Educating making, life cycle analysis, economics, statistics, and Maintain available energy and students, teachers, and increase efficiency to reduce consumers is the other key multidisciplinary problem ecological footprint. to finding new renewable solving. ways to power our homes, 4. Renewable energy education ‹‹ Increase water-use efficiency in businesses, and transportation. and outreach programs steam production and cooling Priority should be given to the through the university system systems to reduce water use. following: throughout the U.S. Outreach ‹‹ Increase efficiency and 1. K-12 Science Programs to and engagement programs, use of existing energy engage young minds in such as those in place sources/infrastructure (e.g., renewable energy and also nationally through Cooperative hydrofracking for natural gas provide teacher support. Extension at land-grant production). Educational programs that universities, can enable the ‹‹ Increase fuel conversion explain the social, political public to better understand the efficiency for biofuels. and environmental challenges sustainability, environmental associated with reliance impacts, and potential issues on fossil fuels and the related to carbon sequestration Education and challenges and opportunities and climate change associated for transitioning to renewable with their energy choices and Outreach Needs sources are critical needs for promote energy conservation K-12 science programs. practices. Education and outreach will be 2. College and Post-Graduate required at all levels, not only programs to help develop a through formal education programs capable and diverse workforce Expected Outcomes but also informal ones, bringing for the future through in both lifelong learners as well mentored research internships as stakeholders who may not and fellowships. Energy We now live in a world in which otherwise be identified (Henkel et development and production in global economic growth—particularly al. 2013). This is nowhere more true the U.S. and globally will require the growing energy demand in than in considerations of natural well-trained scientists from developing countries—will contribute resource and environmental effects diverse STEM-related disciplines to a 50% increase in worldwide of energy development. Conflicts ranging from math and physics energy consumption by 2025. between consumptive and non- to geology and biology to By 2050, the world will need to consumptive users as well as the agriculture and forestry. The find an additional 20 terawatts concerns of the general public need for graduate degrees is of energy and the U.S. will be

62 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources competing along with countries Mediterranean. Aquatic Living Management, Cooperative such as China and India to satisfy Resources 19:149-160. Agreement with Oregon State our growing energy needs. To meet Alper, H., J. Moxley, E. Nevoigt, G.R. University M12AC00012. OCS Report BOEM 2013-0113. 134 p. the challenges of this new energy Fink and G. Stephanopoulos. 2006. Engineering yeast Boehlert, G.W., G.R. McMurray future, we will need new ways transcription machinery for and C.E. Tortorici, editors. of thinking about and producing improved ethanol tolerance 2008. Ecological Effects of energy. Pursuit of alternative and production. Science Wave Energy Development sources of renewable energy 314:1565-1568. in the Pacific Northwest. A with considerations of efficiency, Arnett, E.B., D.B. Inkley, D.H. scientific workshop. National conservation, increased energy Johnson, R.P. Larkin, S. Manes, Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Technical yields, and minimal impacts on A.M. Manville, J.R., Mason, M.L. Morrison, M.D. Strickland and R. Memorandum. NMFS-F/SPO-92, the environment, can help the U.S. Thresher. 2007. Impacts of wind 174 p. increase its national energy trade energy facilities on wildlife and BOEM. 2011. Environmental balance and security. This scenario wildlife habitat. Wildlife Society Monitoring and Baseline has the potential to improve Technical Review 07-2. The Studies: Overview, Summary economic stability of the U.S. and Wildlife Society, Bethesda, MD. and Needs. Atlantic Wind Energy improve national security. Bain, R. 2003. Biopower Technical Workshop, July 12-14, 2011, Assessment: State of the Herndon, VA. Bureau of Ocean Investment in continued and Industry and the Technology. Energy Management. aggressive research, education Department of Energy. Cai, X., X. Zhang, D. Wang. 2011. and outreach programs will ensure Washington, DC. Available Land availability for biofuel a ready source of highly efficient online at: http://www.fs.fed.us/ production. Environmental energy sources that has minimal ccrc/topics/urban-forests/docs/ Science and Technology 45: Biopower_Assessment.pdf. 334-339. impact on the environment but Bedard, R., P.T. Jacobson, M. Chaudhuri, S.K. and D.R. Lovley. helps to maintain a thriving and Previsic, W. Musial and R. 2003. Electricity generation by vibrant economy, and strong U.S. Varley. 2010. An overview direct oxidation of glucose in of ocean renewable energy mediatorless microbial fuel References technologies. Oceanography 23: cells. Natural Biotechnology Abbasi, S.A., and N. Abbasi. 369-378. 21:1229-1232. 2000. The likely adverse Bies, L. 2006. The biofuels explosion: Chisti, Y. 2007. from environmental impacts of Is green energy good for microalgae. Biotechnology renewable energy sources. wildlife? Wildlife Society Bulletin Advances 25:294-306. Applied Energy 65:121-144. 34:1203-1205. Daim, T.U., G. Kayakutlu and K. Abbasi, T., and S.A. Abbasi. Boehlert, G.W., and A.B. Gill. 2010. Cowan. 2010. Developing 2010. Biomass energy and Environmental and ecological Oregon’s renewable energy the environmental impacts effects of ocean renewable portfolio using fuzzy goal associated with its production energy development – a current programming model. Computers and utilization. Renewable and synthesis. Oceanography 23: & Industrial Engineering 59 Sustainable Energy Reviews 14: 64-77. 786-793. 919-937. Boehlert, G., C. Braby, A.S. Bull, Darzins, A., P. Pienkos and L. Edye. Addis, P., A. Cau, E. Massuti, P. M.E. Helix, S. Henkel, P. Klarin 2010. Current Status and Merella, M. Sinopoli and F. and D. Schroeder, editors. 2013. potential for algal biofuels Andaloro. 2006. Spatial and Oregon Marine Renewable production. A report to IEA temporal changes in the Energy Environmental Science Bioenergy Task 39. (Available assemblage structure of fishes Conference Proceedings. U.S. at http://www.globalbioenergy. associated to fish aggregation Department of the Interior, org/bioenergyinfo/background/ devices in the Western Bureau of Ocean Energy detail/en/c/46548/)

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 63 DOE. 2009. Report to Congress on BioScience 59:767-777. Maunsell, F., and METOC PLC. the Potential Environmental Gowan, C., K. Stephenson and 2007. Scottish Marine Effects of Marine and L. Shabman. 2006. The role Renewables Strategic Hydrokinetic Energy of ecosystem valuation in Environmental Assessment Technologies: Prepared in environmental decision making: Environmental Report. The Response to the Energy Hydropower relicensing and Scottish Executive. Available Independence and Security Act dam removal on the Elwha at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/ of 2007, Section 633(B). Wind River. 56: Publications/2007/03/seawave. and Water Power Program, 508-523. Murphy, C.F., and D.T. Allen. Energy Efficiency & Renewable Henkel, S.K., F. Conway and G. 2011. Energy-water nexus for Energy, U.S. Department of Boehlert. 2013. Environmental mass cultivation of algae. Energy. December 2009. and Human Dimensions of Environmental Science and Eisenbies, M.H., E.D. Vance, W.M. Ocean Renewable Energy Technology 45:5861-5868. Aust and J.R. Seiler. 2009. Development. Proceedings NAS. 2003. Frontiers Agricultural Intensive utilization of harvest of the Institute of Electrical Research: Food, Health, residues in southern pine and Electronics Engineers Environment, and Communities. plantations: Quantities available 101:991-998. National Academy of Sciences, and implications for nutrient Inger, R., M.J. Attrill, S. Bearhop, Washington: DC. http://dels.nas. budgets and sustainable site A.C. Broderick, W.J. Grecian, D.J. edu/rpt_briefs/frontiers_in_ag_ productivity. BioEnergy Research Hodgson, C. Mills, E. Sheehan, final%20for%20print.pdf. 2:90-98. S.C. Votier, M.J. Witt and B.J. NRC. 2010. Electricity from EMEC. 2005. Environmental Impact Godley 2009. Marine renewable Renewable Resources: Status, Assessment 20 (EIA) Guidance energy: potential benefits to Prospects, and Impediments. for Developers at the European biodiversity? An urgent call for The National Academies Press, . Revision Marine Energy Centre research. Journal of Applied Washington, DC. 0, 21 March 2005. http://www. Ecology 46:11455-1153. emec.org.uk/emec_documents. NRC. 2011. Renewable Fuel Katzner, T., J.A. Johnson, D.M. Evans, asp. Standard: Potential Economic T.W.J. Garner, M.E. Gompper, and Environmental Effects of EIA. 2008. Renewable Energy Trends R. Altwegg, T.A. Branch, I.J. U.S. Biofuel Policy. The National 2007. Energy Information Gordon and N. Pettorelli. 2013. Academies Press, Washington, Administration Washington, DC. Challenges and opportunities DC. Online at http://www.eia.doe. for animal conservation from gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/ renewable energy development. NRC. 2012. Sustainable Development page/trends/rentrends.html. Animal Conservation 16:367-369. of Algal Biofuels in the United EIA. 2013. International Energy States .The National Academies Khan, M.J., G. Bhuyan, M.T. Press, Washington, DC. Outlook 2013. U.S. Energy Iqbal and J.E. Quaicoe. 2009. Information Administration, Hydrokinetic energy conversion NREL. 2012. Renewable Electricity Washington, DC. Online at: systems and assessment of Futures Study. M.M. Hand, S. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ horizontal and vertical axis Baldwin, E. DeMeo, J.M. Reilly, ieo/ turbines for river and tidal T. Mai, D. Arent, G. Porro, M. Fargione, J.E., J. Hill and J. Wiens. applications: A technology Meshek and D. Sandor, editors. 2011. Biofuels and biodiversity. status review. Applied Energy. 4 vols. NREL/TP-6A20-52409. Ecological Applications 21: 86:1823-1835. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO. 1085-1095. Langhamer, O., and D. Wilhelmsson. Fargione, J.E., T.R. Cooper, D.J. 2009. Colonization of fish Pelc, R and R.M. Fujita. 2002. Flaspohler, J. Hill, C. Lehman, T. and crabs of wave energy Renewable energy from the McCoy, S. McLeod, E.J. Nelson, foundations and the effects ocean. Marine Policy 26: K.S. Oberhauser and D. Tilman. of manufactured holes – A 471-479. 2009. Bioenergy and wildlife: field experiment. Marine Pearce-Higgins, J.W., L. Stephen, Threats and opportunities Environmental Research R.H.W. Langston, I.P. Bainbridge for grassland conservation. 68:151–157. and R. Bullman. 2009. The

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APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 65 Grand Challenge 6: Education

We must maintain and strengthen natural resources education at all levels to have the informed and engaged citizenry, civic leaders, and practicing professionals needed to sustain the natural resources, ecosystems, and ecosystem services of the United States.

career professionals, the public, by informal education institutions and elected officials. Public such as museums and by youth Framing the Issue understanding and acceptance organizations such as 4-H, scouting of natural resources policies groups, and Boys and Girls Clubs and management plans and (Bell et al. 2009). Broadly defined, natural resources their effectiveness for achieving However, much of the include renewable resources sustainability depend on integration American public has little (forests, fisheries, rangeland, of scientific information and understanding of the process water, and wildlife), non-renewable societal values. Fruitful interaction by which scientific knowledge is resources (such as minerals), among well-trained natural gained. That is, most people do ecosystems, and ecosystem services resources professionals, an not understand framing/testing (such as groundwater recharge, informed citizenry, and civic leaders of hypotheses or the difference assimilation of wastes, pollination favors effective natural resources between hypothesis testing and and recreation). Issues pertaining to management. Effective natural construction of theory explaining long-term sustainability of natural resources education at the K-12 a body of natural phenomena. resources are the focus of local, and university levels—burnished by Hence, it is not surprising that regional, and national discussions. life-long learning—will provide the citizens—and frequently their In a representative democracy informed citizenry and practicing leaders—misunderstand and such as ours, development of professionals needed to sustain the often misconstrue scientific natural resources policy involves natural resources of the U.S. Key issues in discussions regarding structured interactions among supporting roles must be provided the science and management

66 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources of natural resources. Only by and activities; strengthening natural the need to include instruction advances in public understanding resources curricula at the higher in natural resources within our of the scientific process, combined education level; improving the educational system, including with more effective science scientific literacy of the Nation’s classroom-based and informal communication, can discussion citizens; communicating scientific education. Although progress of natural resources issues be information to the general public has been made, we must further elevated. We also need education in efficient and effective ways; embed natural resources and regarding how representative promoting the sustainability of environmental education within government works; the roles of natural resources; and promoting K-12 curricula (Ramsey et al. individuals, governments, and diversity in the natural resources 1992). Our citizenry, as it becomes private-sector entities; and the profession. more urbanized, is becoming process of translating scientific detached from understanding and information into public policy and Goal I: Include appreciating the social, ecological, implementation regarding natural natural resources in and economic importance of our resources management. This chapter natural resources (Louv 2005). Our identifies knowledge gaps, research youth education by citizens and civic leaders must needs and priorities, and expected incorporation into STEM understand the multi-faceted outcomes related to six natural curriculum and activities. importance of natural resources resources goals: including natural so that they may act responsibly resources in youth education by Natural resources-oriented regarding policy, legislative, and incorporation into STEM curriculum professionals have long recognized management actions. Hence,

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 67 we must educate regarding the within K-12 curricula, ensuring that for example, the environmental fundamental values and importance national core competencies (in education program at the Wisconsin of sustainable management of science, technology, engineering Center for Environmental Education natural resources; we must start and mathematics, termed “STEM” (WCEE) in the College of Natural at the K-12 level, as it is then requisites) are met (Hopkinson and Resources at the University that cognitive skills are optimal James 2010). Much research has of Wisconsin-Stevens Point for learning (North American addressed approaches to improve fosters, develops and evaluates Association for Environmental natural resources and environmental environmental education in K-12 Education 2010). Attitude and education that lead to youth schools of Wisconsin. Some states value formation also occur during engagement and active behavioral have made notable attempts to childhood and youth; hence, change (e.g., Reilly et al. 2011). develop Environmental Literacy informative, positive experiences There are significant nation-wide Plans (ELP). Around 2010-2011, a with nature and in natural natural resources and environmental national grassroots initiative aimed resources-centered education will education programs, such as Project to pass legislation encouraging have greater probability of changing Wet (http://projectwet.org/), Project integration of environmental behaviors as adults. WILD (http://www.projectwild.org/) education into K-12 curricula; the The goal of youth education and Project Learning Tree (https:// proposed program was known in natural resources is to plt.org). However, use of activities as “No Child Left Inside.” This realize the knowledge base from these supplemental curricula legislation proposed federal funding and integrative abilities that is insufficient for a significant for states to implement K-12 underpin understanding of natural portion of the K-12 population to environment education through resources-related issues, as well achieve the necessary knowledge, statewide educational standards as foster behaviors that promote understanding, and problem- voluntarily developed by a state’s sustainability of our natural solving skills associated with the Department of Education in concert resources. Fundamental concepts science and management of natural with its respective natural resource of natural resources science and resource stewardship. There are agencies and environmental management can be embedded notable efforts at the state level; educational entities. States with approved ELPs would be eligible for federal funding that would aid in fulfilling ELP objectives within state schools. Maryland and Rhode Island (http://rieea.org/resources/ ri-environmental-literacy-plan/) are two of the few states that completed the process, although legislation died during deliberations. However, despite these notable programs, significant gaps remain in the preparation of our students, teachers, and institutions to understanding, comprehending, and engaging in meaningful behavioral changes regarding natural resources.

68 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources education students to meet Natural resources problems the current demands of are a great way to approach Gap Analysis curricula within K-12 schools; the multidisciplinary, problem- unless states mandate natural solving approach that Common resources STEM in K-12 Core curricula promote. Impediments to achieving integrated curricula, teacher preparation natural resources education within ‹‹ A keystone for any educational programs are not likely to K-12 curricula include the following: endeavor is to have in place include it in their courses of a consistent and effective ‹‹ Natural resources education study. State departments of evaluative process to ensure starts with those who establish education determine what that the curriculum is effective, certification criteria for K-12 college-level courses are learning is achieved, and the and informal teaching and required or acceptable for citizenry (child and parent/ learning. There are programs teacher certification, and if guardian) are increasingly more evaluating embedding of natural these agencies do not accept aware and responsive to issues resources (environmental natural resources science-based pertaining to natural resources sciences) within K-12 training credit hours toward certification science and management. The that satisfy STEM standards (as is the case, for example, in National Center for Education (Hopkinson and James 2010). Mississippi), then the students Statistics (2012) biennial report, However, misunderstanding will be less interested in taking The Nation’s Report Card: regarding natural resources these classes that do not apply Science 2001, is a promising education remains among toward their degree program. start, but lacks specific research scientists, university ‹‹ Active-learning curricula reference to natural resources. faculty, federal and state appropriate to a wide range of Natural resources education leaders, school superintendents, target populations should be programs could be evaluated principals, and teachers. Until developed and implemented, not only on a national, but an appropriate niche (Ramsey perhaps nationally. The also on a local level. Scientific et al. 1992) is determined, Association of Fish and Wildlife implementing any definitive literacy is considered to be Agencies’ (2008) conservation contextual in nature, and local K-12 curriculum in natural education strategy, Stewardship resources will be impossible. evaluation would capture Education: Best Management more of such context than Integration of natural resources Planning Guide, is an excellent topics into K-12 curricula will would a national evaluation. starting point. We need We need goals (Hungerford remain problematic until state educational resources (e.g., or federal departments of et al. 1980) to ensure that hands-on, learner-centered all levels of governance of education require that these curricula, as well as interactive education programs (federal, topics be included in their online learning activities) that state, regional, and district) are curriculum standards, as in the satisfy the requisites of STEM consistent in application and case of Maryland and Rhode core competencies and include program evaluation. Island. fundamental concepts of ‹‹ Integration of natural resources natural resources science. This ‹‹ Because much science is content into pre-service teacher goal can be accomplished by learned in out-of-school settings training at the university level encouraging publishers to use (Bell et al. 2009), we also must will prove largely untenable if concepts of natural resources to consider how to strengthen the status quo is maintained. illustrate principles of science, natural resources education in These institutions are preparing technology and mathematics. the informal education sector.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 69 The successful integration of play a key role in such Hence, designers, developers, natural resources within K-12 coordination. We note that educators, political leaders, and informal curricula will these types of informal science and citizens throughout society require cooperation among learning opportunities are should make changes in our federal, state, and private often not available to or used modern built environments to conservation organizations. by under-represented groups; provide children with positive Key state and federal natural hence, cultural, financial and contact with nature. resources management agencies transportation barriers to and many non-governmental access need to be considered organizations (e.g., Ducks with respect to out-of-school Research Needs Unlimited, National Turkey settings. Federation, National Wildlife ‹‹ Play in nature, particularly and Priorities Federation, American Forests, during the critical period of Council for Environmental middle childhood, appears Research needs that must be Education, and Project Wet to be especially important met before we can effectively Foundation) have youth for developing capacities for integrate natural resources science education programs involving creativity, problem-solving, and management within youth principles of management of and emotional and intellectual education include the following: wildlife and their habitats. development (Kellert 2005). ‹‹ A solid definition or description A unified coalition of these Research results indicate of what is meant to be entities supporting the goals, optimal learning opportunities “literate” in natural resource curricula, and evaluative at age-appropriate times science must be agreed mechanisms of the curricula, and differentiate between upon. Once a definition has perhaps spearheaded by the indirect, vicarious, and direct been selected, specified, and Coalition of Natural Resource experiences with nature, with announced as an anchoring Societies, would be useful. the latter becoming less and concept, the work of program Land-grant universities may less available to children. development can go forward (Roberts 2007). ‹‹ Further research is needed to evaluate the most effective suite of experiential activities and pedagogical approaches that maximize understanding of natural resource science and management and address key components of STEM requisites. Classroom and laboratory time as well as informal learning opportunities are limited; thus, integrated programs must be developed and evaluated for effectiveness in knowledge retention, critical thinking, and application over the long-term.

70 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources ‹‹ We need to understand the potential use of technology as a bridging tool for connecting youth to the outdoors. We need to develop a better understanding of the role of social science and use of social indicators in youth that lead to behavior change (Lerner 2005). Few studies exist to examine young people’s views towards environmental and natural resources issues and what motivates them to take action. Youth perceive issues in different terms than adults, so it is important to know how those issues are understood by concepts are retained over resources education. Promising youth and gaps that may exist multiple years and used in practices in systems thinking in those understandings. multi-faceted, integrated critical and complexity education need ‹‹ Non-Caucasian participation thinking exercises. to be further developed and in natural resources fields is ‹‹ Specific topics needing empirical analyzed. disproportionately low; we need research include surveys in to engage underrepresented order to better understand populations in STEM, natural youth concerns. Longitudinal Expected Outcomes resources and sustainability studies are needed to address curricula in our schools. whether increased knowledge Under the status quo, natural Curricula must be developed and awareness of natural resources education is that recognize differences in resources issues leads to uncoordinated, minimally integrated cultural values regarding natural behavioral change. Longitudinal within current curricula, and resources. The effectiveness of studies are needed to address minimally if at all integrated with these curricula in instilling an promising strategies and state teacher certification requisites. awareness and appreciation practices for natural resources Students’ and teachers’ concepts of natural resources must be education that are accessible to of ecological systems are often evaluated over the long-term. school administrators, decision naïve. Schools and educators ‹‹ We need evaluative mechanisms makers and educational funding are insufficiently prepared to to assess effectiveness of K-12 bodies. Research is needed understand the critical connections natural resource curricula. on how adult constructs such between social indicators and Simply measuring student as “climate change” might be youth learning, engagement, and test scores temporally will not translated into actionable items behavior change with respect provide a true assessment of for youth. Research is needed to natural resources issues. the effectiveness of curricula. on how adult learning and Insufficient evaluation strategies Evaluative mechanisms must attitudes about science impact and tools limit understanding of assess the degree to which the way youth perceive natural how students best learn and engage

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 71 as demonstrated by past research natural resources management (e.g., Ramsey 1993). Natural decision-making. Against this resources education standards background, the training of with diversified learning strategies natural resources professionals that incorporate service learning, must be multidisciplinary and age-appropriate and culturally rigorous, polishing the critical relevant curricula, field experience, thinking, problem-solving, and and community engagement in communications skills needed for learning will set the stage for active a career of adaptation to changing learning and critical comprehension management circumstances. of natural resources issues. Natural resources managers Students will be better prepared need a bachelor’s degree for for natural resources careers, and technical-level positions and a underrepresented populations will master’s degree for professional and have better access to these careers. leadership positions. Enrollments in natural resources management- related fields, while varying over on natural resources issues. The Goal II: Strengthen time, are at about the same level full implications of how family and natural resources as in 1980 (Sharik 2013). However, community dimensions affect youth curricula at the higher the proportion of enrollments perceptions, engagement, and education level. among natural resource fields behaviors in the context of natural has undergone dramatic shifts, resources education remain unclear. with some of the more traditional Integrating fundamental disciplines such as forestry and concepts of natural resources wood science/forest products science and management within Gap Analysis experiencing substantial declines, K-12 science curricula is a long- and other fields, particularly term endeavor that will involve The U.S. faces unprecedented interdisciplinary programs, showing coordinated engagement and challenges regarding sustainability dramatic increases. The drivers support by federal, state, local, and of our natural resources and for changes in natural resources private entities. Implementation critical ecosystem processes, curricular enrollments over time are of the recommendations within including issues posed by climate complex, likely involving numerous the NR Roadmap will result in a change, energy development, and demographic, economic, and social coordinated effort promoting a impacts of introduced and invasive factors. Further, a generational shift fully integrated curriculum derived species. Managers must cope with is ongoing, with Baby Boomers from empirically-based research these challenges with adaptive retiring and insufficient numbers findings and integrated within management (i.e., by monitoring of younger natural resources STEM requisites. Its effectiveness system outcomes, learning management professionals following will be evaluated by long- about the system, and improving behind (McMullin 2005a, 2005b; term assessment of learning management over time; Walters Colker 2005). In certain natural skills, knowledge retention, and 2002, Holling 2005) while sustainably resources management fields, e.g., behavior characteristic of an meeting society’s needs for natural marine resources management (U.S. environmentally sensitive citizenry. resources. Further, the American Departments of Commerce and Such responses are indeed possible, public demands greater input into Education 2008), professionals with

72 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources appropriately targeted advanced American employers want learning situations and specifically degrees are in short supply. At the universities to produce graduates the sciences. In science teaching, same time, there is a surplus of who can think critically and this research has led to the students in some areas, such as creatively and can communicate development of case study environmental studies, conservation orally and in writing, according to teaching (Herreid 2007, Herreid biology, and marine biology, with results of a public opinion survey et al. 2012), peer instruction comparatively few practical skills recently released by Northeastern (Crouch and Mazur 2001), SCALE- needed by natural resources University (Berrett 2013). A primary UP teaching (student-centered management agencies. Guiding problem with higher education in active learning environment students so that more of them natural resources and across the with upside-down pedagogies; obtain a set of marketable skills sciences, however, is the dated Beichner et al. 2006), and Scientific should be an outcome of higher teaching focus on subject matter Teaching (Handelsman et al. 2004; education. content. Recent pedagogical Handelsman and Pfund 2007). All of While U.S. curricula in natural developments suggest that these ‘learning-centered’ teaching resources science and management students do not need instructors approaches are well researched are among the best in the world, to deliver information, but rather and documented, but relatively natural resources programs at our that students will benefit most few science teachers are aware of public universities are struggling from curricular focus on developing them or they resist such changes to maintain faculty lines and face critical skills for information to ‘traditional’ science teaching. the prospect of continuing declines processing (finding, judging, and Educators in natural resources in public funding. The ability applying information in a creative fields need to focus their efforts on to maintain natural resources and well-reasoned fashion; Barr helping natural resource graduates programs and curricular quality is and Tagg 1995). “Active learning” develop critical 21st-century skills at stake. Some public universities research has addressed general (Institute for the Future [IFTF] have dropped natural resources- related programs; e.g., Washington State University has dropped its undergraduate forestry program, but has maintained its natural resources program, while the University of Washington has moved its accredited undergraduate forestry program (B.S.) to the graduate level (M.F.). Faculty lines in traditional natural resources fields are being replaced to a great extent by faculty with more molecular and biophysical interests, in part because they can compete more efficiently for federal research grants. Changes in research funding opportunities and information needs of management agencies drive change at universities.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 73 2011). The basic problem is two- problem-solving, quantitative fold: (1) most natural resources Research Needs reasoning, critical thinking, and and science instructors are either communication skills. While the unaware of the research that and Priorities pedagogy required to produce shows improved learning outcomes professionals ready to face modern when instruction is switched from Faced with unprecedented natural resources management ‘instruction-centered’ to ‘learning- challenges regarding sustainability, challenges is the subject of research centered’ teaching; and (2) the energy development, climate and discussion (see, for example, reward structure in the university change, introduced and invasive CIDER 2014), greater attention is skewed toward research species, and other natural must be paid to implementing productivity, with little incentive for resources-related issues, support the findings of such research in faculty to spend the time necessary for applied research is needed university education. The emergence to convert and to teach courses more than ever. Competitive grants of online courses and curricula at in the new modes of instruction programs targeting critical needs public and for-profit universities (Hines et al. 2013). Good teaching that are administered by the (e.g., Oregon State University, http:// takes significantly more time than U.S. Departments of Agriculture, ecampus.oregonstate.edu/online- average or poor teaching, and time Commerce, Interior, and other degrees/undergraduate/fw/) poses spent on teaching is not adequately agencies will shape our nation’s challenging questions regarding rewarded. response to these challenges. their effectiveness for natural Support for such programs must be resources fields. maintained. Funding to improve education Institutions of higher should be focused on: (1) helping education, public agencies, faculty understand the crisis in and private- sector employers graduates’ poor preparation for the need a better understanding of 21st century professional world; (2) factors affecting undergraduate helping existing faculty convert ‘old’ and graduate enrollments and courses to meet new needs; (3) new career opportunities in natural faculty developing effective courses resources-related fields, both and curricula from the start of their now and over the long-term. Our careers; and (4) helping programs ability to maintain a well-qualified retool faculty and redesign curricula workforce in natural resources- to effectively meet the challenges of related fields will depend upon the new century. The USDA Higher filling the educational pipeline Education Challenge Grant program while improving educational quality is a good model, as are the National in order to produce managers Science Foundation grant programs prepared to adapt to the evolving that led to the development of and increasing demands upon the National Center for Case Study our natural resources. University Teaching in Science, Scientific education will have to achieve Teaching and the SCALE-UP model student learning outcomes including for physics education. Virginia Tech not only the traditional base has adopted SCALE-UP for biology of technical knowledge, skills, and natural resources education, and behaviors, but also inquiry, and grants supporting classroom

74 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources conversion were critical for its will have the information needed to understand experiments and success. Most university classrooms to effectively recruit diverse, highly reasoning as well as basic facts, to are not designed to accommodate talented, and motivated individuals comprehend articles about science, learning-centered teaching. Once to technical and leadership and to engage in discussion about faculty and academic programs positions. Better information on the validity of conclusions. At the are convinced that such is the workforce needs in various sub- national level, scientific literacy teaching style of the future, there disciplines will permit a more often is taken as the expectation will be critical need for classroom strategic approach to student that everyone should have a conversion funding. recruitment. University curricula working knowledge of science and pedagogy will embody the and its role in society (Rutherford latest developments in the field and Ahlgren 1991, American Expected Outcomes of natural resources science and Association for the Advancement management, training well-qualified of Science [AAAS] 1993). Roberts entry-level professionals prepared (2007) describes broad “visions” Under the status quo, the for a career of life-long learning of scientific literacy; vision I starts pipeline feeding entry-level and adaptation. Universities will from a scientific perspective, and natural resources managers into have the educational infrastructure vision II situates itself from the the profession will not be filled and faculty expertise to engage in perspective of the citizen. The with quality graduates, leaving active teaching and learning. The scientific literacy of the American certain key areas (e.g., human profession will have the scientific public is limited, however, in the dimensions of natural resources understanding and management context of public controversies over decision-making, quantitative skills needed to effectively address science and technology policy, for modeling of natural resources) the growing range of natural example regarding bioethics, genetic short of qualified practitioners. resources-related issues facing the engineering, and climate change. Natural resources curricula and United States. Further, some segments of society approaches to pedagogy will tend to disregard scientific evidence not advance in concert with the when it challenges their established changing needs of the profession, Goal III: Improve the belief systems. leading to insufficient preparation scientific literacy of the The formal development of of entry-level professionals. Entry- Nation’s citizens. scientific literacy, especially in level professionals will lack certain our young citizens, is the domain key skills – such as quantitative, of schools, with important analytic, and “soft” (e.g., contributions also from informal interpersonal, problem-solving, and science education (Bell et al. 2009). communication) skills – valued by Gap Analysis However, too much of science employers. With insufficient applied teaching and learning – including research, managers will lack the that in natural resources-related scientific information and analytic Scientific literacy is the knowledge subjects – is simple transmission tools needed to sustainably meet and understanding of scientific of knowledge, a shortcoming at the the natural resources management concepts and processes for personal course and curricular levels. There challenges faced by American decision-making, participation is a great need in both K-12 and society in our changing world. in civic affairs, and economic higher education for active teaching By following the NR Roadmap’s activities (NAS 1996). A scientifically and learning of science. Science recommendations, the profession literate person has the capacity should be presented as a process

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 75 of building theory and models using fills the gap to some degree, its natural resources-related fields in evidence, checking it for internal problems include bias, inaccuracy particular. Proponents of scientific consistency and coherence, and and confirmation. Because literacy often focus on what a testing it empirically (NRC 2007). In science writing often focuses on student has learned by the time our context, then, education must controversial topics, the public can they graduate from high school. All promote critical thinking skills, i.e., conclude that disagreement within our young people need exposure the ability to use this knowledge to the scientific community is greater to effective science education, assess specific issues and evaluate than it really is, as with issues including natural resources-related various management or societal such as climate change. Scientists science, and science literacy has options. tend to be very conservative when been an important part of the discussing the implications of their standards movement in education. The media play an important role findings, especially with journalists. Such standards, however, must in informal and life-long education; Science journalists find it difficult go beyond requiring knowledge that is, citizens receive much to communicate risk-related issues per se and include demonstrable of their information on natural effectively (NRC 1996). understanding of the process resources and other science-related through which new scientific issues from media outlets such as knowledge is realized. While television, radio, newspapers, and Research Needs some inroads have been made the internet. With budget cuts at (e.g., Minner et al. 2010), further major newspapers and broadcast and Priorities pedagogy research is needed to media outlets, however, there are determine how to more effectively fewer working science journalists A multi-pronged strategy is needed include active inquiry into teaching than formerly (Brumfiel 2009). to improve the scientific literacy of and learning at both the K-12 and While blog-based science reporting our nation’s citizens in general and higher education levels. Educator professional development in K-12, informal, and higher education is critical. Most educators lack a background in effective science pedagogy. University educators need to develop instruments to measure scientific literacy. The goal of science journalism is, in an unbiased manner, to translate detailed, technical, often jargon-laden information produced by scientists into a form that non-technical audiences can understand and appreciate. To maintain life-long learning in science, including natural resources- related issues, the nation needs to train more science journalists. We need to encourage the offering of science reporting specialization

76 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources in journalism curricula. Science little relevance to common usage; journalists may or may not have Goal IV: Communicate examples include such common training in the scientific disciplines scientific information words as “work,” “heat,” and on which they report, although “uncertainty.” graduate-level training in science to the general public in efficient and effective Scientific understanding of writing is a great way to enter the natural resources is complex field. Science journalism programs, ways. because all natural systems are such as those at Massachusetts inter-connected and cannot be Institute of Technology, Boston The fundamental purposes understood in isolation. Additionally, University, the University of of communicating scientific many natural resource systems are California at Santa Cruz, and other information about natural resources valued not only for their economic universities, generally comprise an are to inform multiple audiences potential, but also for less tangible intensive one-year program and an so that defensible, science-based values such as beauty. These often- internship. decisions can be made. In a conflicting values are addressed in representative democratic society, policy, which is inherently political. the public, civil servants, and Additionally, many scientific results, Expected Outcomes elected leaders need open and especially in the natural resources, unbiased scientific information are often politicized. Politicization in order to make such decisions. of science often confuses the Under the status quo, scientific However, traditional methods public and conflates science with literacy in natural resources will of communicating scientific policy, which makes it very difficult remain the domain of those trained information about natural resources to communicate the underlying in natural resources management. have not been as effective as science. The general public and civic leaders they could be. protection is Confirmation bias also makes will remain disengaged except on an example of this failure. While effective communication difficult, matters of controversy. Decisions federal, state, and local agencies particularly when dealing with on how to use our nation’s natural exert substantial efforts in flood complex and politicized information. resources often will be made on management, flood damage remains In confirmation bias, information the basis of partial information and high as property development that confirms a currently held idea, ideological viewpoints. continues in flood-prone locations stance, or opinion is selected, With the heightened investment (e.g., Morss et al. 2005); Hurricane while information that counters in science education called for Sandy’s impact on coastal New it is ignored. Confirmation bias is in the NR Roadmap, not only the Jersey in October 2012 is a recent common to almost all information- technically trained, but also society example. Communicating the collecting and decision-making and its leaders will understand science of natural resources can be processes. In most cases, natural resources science and difficult because of the complex and individuals are not aware of their management and decision-making often subtle and abstract aspects confirmation bias (Mlodinow within a representative democracy. of many scientific issues. Scientists 2008). Confirmation bias is a Natural resources decision-making often communicate in jargon that basic misunderstanding of the will prove less controversial, less requires specialized knowledge to “Scientific Method.” The scientific contested in the nation’s courts, understand. Even more confusing, method often is explained as a and more defensible to broad scientists often use common words way to prove truth; it is rare that segments of the public. in very specific ways that may have the method is taught as a method

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 77 of inquiry that emphasizes the including care/harm, fairness/ making. Understanding this falsification of hypotheses, theories, cheating, loyalty/betrayal, authority/ linkage will require teams of or understanding. Misunderstanding subversion, sanctity/degradation, experts in communication, of the scientific method leads and liberty/oppression (Haidt 2012). decision science, and natural individuals to select information Professional journalists have resources scientists. that confirms rather than challenges largely shaped the communication ‹‹ Better methods of established views. Good science of science to the public. However, communicating uncertainty and communication requires overcoming as noted above, over the past probability to the public are the confirmation bias. 25 years there has been a slow second priority. Scientists and erosion of science journalism the public usually do not share (Brumfiel 2009). There are fewer the same understanding of Gap Analysis magazines devoted to science for these terms. While to scientists the general reader, and many large these terms communicate newspapers have discontinued deeper understanding, to Traditionally, the emphasis of daily or weekly science sections. the public these terms scientific communications has As traditional print journalism are interpreted as lack of focused on a “deficit of knowledge” has become less important understanding. model, which assumes that in communicating scientific ‹‹ Related to communication of individuals just need information, information, other communication uncertainty and probability is and then the right decision would platforms have developed rapidly. the development of methods follow. This model is based on at New media platforms, such as to lessen the influence of least two tenuous assumptions, blogs, YouTube, and other evolving confirmation bias in order to that knowledge of facts leads to communication platforms, impact communicate natural resources understanding and that decisions the communication of scientific scientific information effectively. are made only on the “facts.” information. The democratization ‹‹ Research is needed on how to A better understanding on how of information may lead to more communicate effectively and individuals make decisions about confirmation bias. efficiently using new media natural resources is needed in platforms, particularly to order to increase the effectiveness integrate teams of scientists of scientific communications. Research Needs and experts in technological Such understanding will increase aspects of new media with the effectiveness and efficiency and Priorities communication experts. of communicating scientific ‹‹ The reward structures within information because the Research is needed into how to scientific agencies and fundamental goal of communication communicate scientific information universities need to be revised of scientific information is to about natural resources in so that communicating scientific support better decisions. Decision- ways that support individual information to decision-makers making research has shown decision-making: is appropriately valued. A that most decisions are made broader range of federal grants primarily using intuition with facts ‹‹ The highest research should require a comprehensive selected after deciding to support priority is to understand the plan for communicating the the decision. Intuitive decisions linkage between effective results of natural resources are made on six foundations, communication of scientific research to decision makers. which usually are not articulated, information and decision- Grants should include a

78 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources significant component related of many new communication more common. Implementing to communicating research platforms, we can expect the the recommendations of the NR results to a non-scientific communication of scientific Roadmap will assist in effective and audience in understandable information to become more efficient communication of scientific and useful terms. Experts in fragmented. This fragmentation information, supporting its proper communication, extension/ will lead to an increased tendency role in decision making. outreach, decision science, and for confirmation bias in scientific other social scientists should be communications. Many in decision- part of the proposal team from making roles will remain confused Goal V: Promote the the beginning, and involved concerning the proper role of sustainability of natural at a level that makes a real probability and scientific uncertainty resources. difference, not as an after- in decision-making processes. The thought or “add-on.” Extension application of science in decision- specialists at land-grant making will thus tend to be overly universities can and do play optimistic or all but ignored. a key role in communicating Following NR Roadmap research findings to the public. Gap Analysis recommendations, there will be increased effectiveness in communicating scientific The landscape for natural resources Expected Outcomes information to the public and management is rapidly changing, decision-makers. With many new with unprecedented challenges A democratic society requires the and developing communication arising. Human demand for finite exchange of sound and unbiased platforms becoming available, natural resources is increasing information. Under the status fragmentation of scientific with increasing human population, quo, with the rapid development communication is becoming growing worldwide affluence, and increasing per-capita use of natural resources. Novel climate conditions are changing the productive potential of many ecosystems, in the face of decreasing availability of clean fresh water. Introduced species are changing farmland, forest, rangeland, and aquatic ecosystems. Natural resources education long has relied on traditional management disciplines, integrating over a century of experience. However, sustaining natural resources in the face of unprecedented need through an unknown future will require different strategies and well- prepared leaders. It is our

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 79 challenge to educate future leaders, stewardship strategies; these science) from the natural resources managers, and decision-makers models must be improved by management disciplines, thereby such that they are dynamic, assimilating current data and separating “basic” from “applied” critical thinkers who can recognize monitoring to test and refine research and teaching. Faculty and important changes that are models. Working knowledge students select the basic or applied occurring, describe key problems, and ability to apply quantitative scientific cultures on the basis assess needs, and develop and models will be critical for future of relatively arbitrary criteria and apply new tools in collaboration leaders. affinities, often leading to limited with experts from multiple ‹‹ While best stewardship interaction across institutional disciplines. Professionals with such practices potentially can be barriers, with two or more abilities should be educated in what defined by natural resources institutional units for economics, public health sector academics label science, it is application within ecology, watershed hydrology, “integration and implementation the human context of social and other critical areas. Reward science” (Bammer 2003, 2013). science and humanities that structures for faculty tend to determines policy and practice. prioritize grants and publications in the basic disciplines, and outreach ‹‹ Communication and or management-relevant products in Needs and Priorities collaboration skills are needed to realize solutions the applied disciplines. Educating tomorrow’s leaders in to complex natural resources Institutional structures and natural resources stewardship issues that involve engaging curricula with fewer barriers will require cultural change in our stakeholders. Stakeholders between scientific advances and institutions, as well as change need to understand scientific natural resources management will in the curricular underpinnings information and uncertainties, provide us with current knowledge for undergraduate and graduate and leaders need to be able to and flexible thinking needed for students: understand and engage groups wisest stewardship. We envision public higher education institutions ‹‹ Natural resources management with highly divergent values with new structures—perhaps must be integrated with the systems. including centers and institutes natural sciences. Approaches ‹‹ A cross-APLU study might —that stimulate and reward to solving complex issues in recommend alternative interdisciplinary engagement by natural resources stewardship exploratory structures to faculty and students. In addition must necessarily engage enhance interdisciplinary to integrating natural resources knowledge about the cutting engagement across university sciences with management, these edge in science, including campuses and lead to more interdisciplinary structures will genetic engineering, atmospheric innovation in educating our prove strong centers for research dynamics, biological control, future natural resources and education related to the skills fire physics, and many other stewards. necessary for tomorrow’s leaders, disciplines, not as a separate including quantitative modeling, set of courses, but as issues communication, and collaboration. integrated into applied natural Expected Outcomes resources courses. ‹‹ Quantitative simulation models Under the status quo, higher Goal VI: Promote represent the best tool for education institutional structures diversity in the natural predicting future conditions often separate natural resources resources profession. and assessing alternative sciences (biology and social

80 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources findings have important implications for academic institutions and those Gap Analysis who employ their graduates, and for Expected Outcomes how society views and values the natural resources professions. The Recent Census Bureau data indicate Under the current trajectory, women under-representation of women and that Agriculture and Natural and minorities will be more poorly minorities in the natural resources Resources as a field ranks second represented in the natural resources professions creates special only to Engineering in the lowest professions than in most other challenges for managing natural percentage of women potentially professions, and our ability to make resources well into the future, in the workforce, and at the very gains in the value that society and raises the question of what bottom in percentage of minorities places on these professions will be strategies should to be employed (i.e., under-represented racial limited. Moreover, the availability to bring their numbers more into and ethnic groups) compared to of women and minorities in various alignment with those within society 14 other major disciplines (Sharik natural resources disciplines will as a whole. 2013). Within Agriculture and vary greatly and will not be well Natural Resources, Forestry ranks aligned with workforce needs. at the bottom among 10 sub- Alternatively, by following NR disciplines. These findings are Research Needs Roadmap recommendations, we will mirrored by the undergraduate and Priorities gain enhanced understanding of student body in the U.S., where the factors that cause women and women and minorities in natural minorities not to choose natural resource fields, although increasing, We need to better understand resources careers, and will be are only about two-thirds and the factors that lead to women able to focus on these factors in one-third, respectively, of their and minorities choosing natural order to increase their enrollment numbers in the overall student resources curricula and ensuing in natural resources degree population across all fields of careers in numbers far below programs and their numbers in study. Undergraduate enrollments their proportion in the population, the professional workforce. These in natural resources academic such that the natural resources efforts will also allow us to better programs are currently at about professions are not representative understand differences among the same level they were three of society as a whole. We also minority groups in their attractions decades ago, but the proportion of need to better understand factors to various natural resources careers students among disciplines within contributing to the imbalance and to better advise students natural resources has shifted in enrollments of women and on the greatest opportunities for dramatically to where enrollment minorities among various natural employment. in interdisciplinary programs resources disciplines, and how eclipses those of the more this imbalance stands to affect References traditional disciplinary programs the availability of highly qualified AAAS. 1993. Benchmarks for Science such as forestry and fisheries and professionals in the workforce. Literacy. Oxford University Press, wildlife. Moreover, the percentages Research also is needed to Oxford, UK. of women and minorities in determine those factors that Association of Fish and these interdisciplinary programs contributed towards retaining these Wildlife Agencies. 2008. Stewardship Education: Best are significantly higher than in individuals to graduation (and thus Management Planning Guide. the more traditional programs, employment) once enrolled in a http://209.15.226.145/~fishwild/ especially in forestry. These college or university. corecode/uploads/

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82 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Minner, D.D., A.J. Levy and J. SearchMethod=1&TocRestrict= the Future: Youth Water Century. 2010. Inquiry-based n&Toc=&TocEntry=&QField=&QF Programming for the 21st science instruction—what is ieldYear=&QFieldMonth=&QFiel Century. U.S. Department of it and does it matter? Results dDay=&UseQField=&IntQFieldO Agriculture, National Institute from a research synthesis, p=0&ExtQFieldOp=0&XmlQuery= of Food and Agriculture. Final years 1984 to 2002. Journal of &File=D%3A%5CZYFILES%5CIND Report. 71 p. Research in Science Teaching EX%20DATA%5C00THRU05%5CTX Roberts, D.A. 2007. Scientific 47:474-496. T%5C00000008%5C3000654N.txt literacy/science literacy. Pages Mlodinow, L. 2008. The Drunkard’s &User=ANONYMOUS&Password 729-780 in S.K. Abell and N.G. Walk: How Randomness Rules =anonymous&SortMethod=h% Lederman, editors, Handbook of our Lives. Vintage Books, New 7C-&MaximumDocuments=1&F Research on Science Education. York, NY. uzzyDegree=0&ImageQuality=r7 National Association for Morss, R.E., O.V. Wilhelmi, M.W. 5g8/r75g8/x150y150g16/i425&D Research in Science Teaching, Downton and E. Gruntfest. isplay=p%7Cf&DefSeekPage=x& Reston, VA. http://faculty. 2005. Flood risk, uncertainty, SearchBack=ZyActionL&Back=Zy education.ufl.edu/tsadler/ and scientific information for ActionS&BackDesc=Results%20 Roberts-SciLit.pdf. decision making: Lessons from MaximumPages=1&ZyEntry=1. Rutherford, J.F., and A. Ahlgren. an interdisciplinary project. NRC. 1996. Understanding Risk: 1991. Science for All Americans: Bulletin of the American Informing Decisions on a Education for a Changed Future. Meteorological Society Democratic Society. National Oxford University Press, New 86:1593-1601. Academy Press, Washington, DC. York, NY. NAS. 1996. National Science www.nap.edu. Sharik, T. 2013. Diversity trends Education Standards. National NRC. 2007. Taking Science to School: in the U.S. natural resource Academy Press, Washington, DC. Learning and Teaching in Grades workforce and undergraduate www.nap.edu. K-8. National Academy Press, student population. Conference National Center for Education Washington, DC. www.nap.edu. on Diversity in Natural Statistics. 2012. The Nation’s Ramsey, J.M., H.R. Hungerford and Resources and Environment, Report Card: Science 2011. NCES T.L. Volk. 1992. Environmental Blacksburg, VA, June 19-21, 2013. 2012–465. Institute of Education education in the K-12 U.S. Department of Commerce and Sciences, U.S. Department of curriculum: finding a niche. U.S. Department of Education. Education, Washington, DC. Journal of Environmental 2008. The Shortage in the North American Association for Education 23: 35-45. Number of Individuals with Environmental Education. 2010. Ramsey, J.M. 1993. The effects Post-Baccalaureate Degrees Excellence in Environmental of issue investigation and in Subjects Related to Fishery Education: Guidelines for action training on eight-grade Science. NOAA Technical Learning (K-12). http:// students’ environmental Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-91, nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET. behavior. Journal of 84 p. exe/3000654N.txt?ZyActionD= Environmental Education Walters, C. 2002. Adaptive ZyDocument&Client=EPA&Ind 24:31–36. Management of Renewable ex=2000%20Thru%202005&Doc Reilly, K., J. Kushner and A. Resources. Blackburn Press, s=&Query=&Time=&EndTime=& Obernesser. 2011. Mapping Caldwell, NJ.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 83 Appendix A: Glossary for Science, Education, and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources

Acidification — the process by which water bodies, such Diversity — the inclusion of different types of people as rivers and lakes, and other natural features (as people of different races, cultures or sexual become affected by excess acid can also be orientation) in a group or organization. described as acidification. Ecosystem — a community of living organisms (plants, Adaptation — the act or process of adapting to new animals and microbes) in conjunction with the environmental, social or cultural conditions, or the nonliving components of their environment (such state of being adapted (i.e., adaptation to climate as the atmosphere, water and mineral soil), change). interacting as a system. Adaptive management — a structured, iterative process Ecosystem function — the interactions between of robust decision making in the face of uncertainty, organisms and the physical environment via with an aim to reducing uncertainty over time via processes, such as nutrient cycling, energy flow, system monitoring. soil development, and water budgeting. Agriculture — the cultivation of animals, plants, fungi, Ecosystem services — the important benefits for and other life forms for food, fiber, biofuel, drugs human beings or life systems that arise from and other products used to sustain and enhance healthily functioning ecosystems, such as human life. the production of oxygen, soil genesis, water detoxification and pollination. Best Management Practices (BMPs) — those practices determined to be the most efficient, practical, Ecosystem structure — attributes related to the and cost-effective measures identified to guide a physical state of an ecosystem; examples include particular activity or to address a particular problem. species population density, species richness or evenness, and standing crop biomass. Biodiversity — the number, variety, and genetic variation of different organisms found within a specified Environmental justice — the fair treatment and geographic region. meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, sex, national origin, or income with Bioenergy — renewable energy made available from respect to the development, implementation and materials derived from biological sources. enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, Biomass — biological material derived from living, or and policies. recently living organisms. Habitat — the area or environment where an organism Biome — a major ecological community of organisms or ecological community normally lives or occurs. adapted to a particular climatic or environmental — the use of condition in a large geographic area. Hydrofracking or hydraulic fracturing pressurized solutions to cause fracturing around Carbon sequestration — is the process of capture and horizontal boreholes to increase the flow of long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide natural gas or petroleum to an extraction well. (CO ). 2 Invasive species — non-native species that adversely Climate change — a significant and lasting change in affect the habitats and bioregions they the statistical distribution of weather patterns over invade economically, environmentally, and/or periods ranging from decades to millions of years. ecologically.

84 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Life cycle analysis or assessment — is a technique to Restoration — the practice of renewing and restoring assess environmental impacts associated with all degraded, damaged, or destroyed ecosystems the stages of a product’s life from-cradle-to-grave and habitats in the environment by active human (i.e., from raw material extraction through materials intervention and action. processing, manufacture, distribution, use, repair — the knowledge and understanding and maintenance, and disposal or recycling). Scientific literacy of scientific concepts and processes required for Mesocosm — an experimental tool that brings personal decision making, participation in civic and ecologically relevant components of the natural cultural affairs, and economic productivity. environment under controlled conditions. Socioecology — the study of critical resources (natural, Metapopulation — a group of spatially separated socioeconomic, and cultural) whose flow and use is populations of the same species which interact at regulated by a combination of ecological and social some level through dispersal and gene flow. systems Natural resources — naturally occurring materials or Species — the largest group of organisms capable of ecosystem components such as soil, water, forest, interbreeding and producing fertile offspring. rangelands, marine, etc, that can be used by humans. Stewardship — the activity or job of protecting and being responsible for something. Net primary production — the rate at which all the plants in an ecosystem produce net chemical Stressor — an activity, event, or other stimulus that energy; it is equal to the difference between the causes stress on an organism, population or rate at which the plants in an ecosystem produce ecosystem. chemical energy and the rate at which they use Sustainability — the potential for long-term maintenance some of that energy during respiration. of well being, which has ecological, economic, Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) — the zone in which political and cultural dimensions. oxygen saturation in seawater in the ocean is at its Scientific literacy — written, numerical, and digital lowest. literacy as they pertain to understanding science, its Phenological responses — changes in timing of biological methodology, observations, and theories. events or cycles (i.e., breeding, flowering, migration) Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) — a value of the as a result of environmental change. maximum amount of a pollutant that a body of Renewable energy — energy that comes from resources water can receive while still meeting water quality which are continually replenished on a human standards. timescale such as , wind, rain, tides, waves Watershed — the area of land where all of the water and geothermal heat. that is under it or drains off of it goes into the same Resilience — the ability to recover from a perturbation, place. disaster or catastrophe. Resistance — the ability of an ecosystem to maintain function when disturbed or undergoing environmental change.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 85 Appendix B: Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Contributors

NR Roadmap Advisory Board Challenge Area Teams Wendy Fink (Association of Public and Land-grant Grand Challenge 1—Sustainability Universities), Chair Science Leaders W. Daniel Edge (Oregon State University), Co-Chair Rick Cruse (Iowa State University), Chair John P. Hayes (Colorado State University) Dalia Abbas (Tennessee State University) Doug Parker (University of California) Karl Gesch (Iowa State University) Hal Salwasser (Oregon State University) Chuck Kowaleski (Texas Parks & Wildlife Department) David Stooksbury (University of Georgia) Urs Kreuter (Texas A&M) John Tanaka (University of Wyoming) Ken LaValley (University of New Hampshire) Reagan Waskom (Colorado State University) Chris Lepczyk (University of Hawaii) Tim White (University of Florida) Hal Salwasser (Oregon State University) Technical Coordinators Victoria Scott (Iowa State University) Wendy Fink (Association of Public and Land-grant Michael Willig (University of Connecticut) Universities) Peer Reviewers W. Daniel Edge (Oregon State University) Bill Fox (Texas A&M) Delphi Survey John Wiener (University of Colorado) Travis Parks (Cornell University) Grand Challenge 2—Water Comprehensive Reviews (all chapters) Science Leaders Doug Parker (University of California), Chair Keith Belli (University of Tennessee) James Anderson (West Virginia University) Leslie Burger (Mississippi State University) Rhett Jackson (University of Georgia) Ali Fares (Prairie View A&M University) Brian Miller (University of ) George Hopper (Mississippi State University) Amanda Rosenberger (University of Missouri) Rob Swihart (Purdue University) John Tracy (University of Idaho) Peer Reviewers Matt Cohen (University of Florida) Introduction Barry Noon (Colorado State University) Wendy Fink (Association of Public and Land-grant Universities)

86 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Grand Challenge 3—Climate Change Grand Challenge 5—Energy Science Leaders Science Leaders John Nielsen-Gammon (Texas A&M), Chair Rubin Shmulsky (Mississippi State University), Chair Sarah Karpanty (Virginia Tech University) George Boehlert (Oregon State University) William Lauenroth (University of Wyoming) W. Daniel Edge (Oregon State University) Tim Martin (University of Florida) Wendy Fink (Association of Public and Land-grant Jens Nejstgaard (Skidaway Institute of Oceanography) Universities) Kevin Strychar (Grand Valley State University) Peer Reviewers Pete Teel (Texas A&M) Janaki Alavalapati (Virginia Tech University) LuAnne Thompson (University of Washington) Daniel B. Hayes (Michigan State University) Reagan Waskom (Colorado State University) Todd Katzner (West Virginia University) Junjie Wu (Oregon State University) Don Roth (University of Wyoming) Peer Reviewers John Tracy (University of Idaho) James T. Anderson (West Virginia University) Jim Turner (Association of Public and Land-grant Ivan Fernandez (University of Maine) Universities) David Whitehurst (Virginia Department of and Grand Challenge 6—Education Inland Fisheries) Science Leaders Grand Challenge 4—Agriculture Eric Hallerman (Virginia Tech University), Chair Science Leader Tom Blewett (University of Wisconsin) Wendy Fink (Association of Public and Land-grant Ingrid Burke (University of Wyoming) Universities) Bruce Leopold (Mississippi State University) Terry Sharik (Michigan Tech University) David Stooksbury (University of Georgia) Peer Reviewers Wayne Hubert (University of Wyoming) Martin Smith (University of California) Jim Allen (Northern Arizona University) Brian Murphy (Virginia Tech University) Dean Stauffer (Virginia Tech University)

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 87 Sustainability Challenge

Appendix C. Crosswalk for priority areas in the NR Roadmap with priorities identified in the ESCOP Science Roadmap for Agriculture

Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Development of Sustainable Management Couple Human-Natural Systems Soils and Freshwater Forestlands Rangelands Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Practices

Understand and apply more widely the concept Emphasize technological innovation. Precision Integrate forest management practices with over- Emphasize and promote an integrated sys- Understand the status and trends of re- Reduce the use of nonrenewable inputs in agri- of socioecology: human and natural systems technologies (e.g., micro-irrigation) can en- all environmental sustainability and ecosystem tems approach to research and outreach to source abundance and distribution through cultural production. are linked and should thus be studied as one hance the sustainability of how humans use services protection goals. Currently this is only improve policy formulation that supports the accurate, timely assessments. broad human-natural system. water and soil. guaranteed by using non-mandatory guidelines long-term sustainable management of dynamic which require regular development and upgrades rangeland ecosystems. to meet more intensive resource use.

Increase environmental justice. Determine the capacity of soil and water to Increase understanding of the integrated effects Expand spatial and temporal scales of re- Understand interspecies and habitat-species Assess the capacity of agricultural and other meet current and future demands for agricul- of forest management and harvesting practices on search to address heterogeneous biophysical relationships to support forecasting of re- managed systems to deliver ecosystem ser- tural and forest products. soil, water and biodiversity protection needs. factors and response lags to management source stability and sustainability. vice, including trade-offs and synergies among practices that influence rangeland productivity ecosystem services. and ecosystem services.

More thoroughly apply Life Cycle Analysis to Evaluate the effectiveness of policies and Increase awareness towards reducing wood Promote trans-disciplinary research to address Understand human-use patterns that influ- Enhance internal ecosystem services that sup- major materials and natural resources. incentives that promote soil and water extraction from sensitive sites due to long term ef- crosscutting social and biophysical factors ence resource stability and sustainability. production outcomes that reduce chemical conservation. fects on reduced productivity. that influence the dynamics of rangelands and inputs. tradeoffs resulting from changing demands for potentially competing ecosystem services.

Identify and account for external costs not in- Increase the spatial and temporal precision Develop realistic economic assessments of the Emphasize and promote integrative social sci- Advance the environmental sustainability of Assess food animal production in relation to ternalized in prices. of climate simulations in order to improve long-term effect of current use rates on resource ence research that addresses science-based ocean energy technologies. ecosystem services. outcomes prediction under future climate and ecosystem productivity. data interpretation and experience-based user scenarios (e.g., water availability; forest, knowledge. rangeland, and crop response to drought per- sistence; and soil erosion).

Improve agricultural and fisheries production Predict and evaluate how a growing and ur- Promote alternative practices that are less envi- Document and assess contributions of man- Develop sustainable fishing practices and Develop innovative waste management through more efficient use of land, water, en- banizing human populace with an increasing ronmentally taxing. agement decisions to short- and long-term technologies. technologies. ergy, and chemicals. standard of living will affect how soils are man- outcomes of conservation programs. aged and how water is allocated.

Simultaneously increase the generation of re- Apply systems-level analytics to understand Promote understanding of the reasonable scale Develop protocols and programs that generate Understand resiliency and adaptation to a Pursue systems-oriented and science-based newable energy while reducing the impacts feedbacks between humans, soil, and wa- and utilization rates of resources to reduce nega- systematic and standardized evidence-based changing climate. policy and regulation for agricultural and other of infrastructure (e.g., wind farms, wells, pipe- ter and identify key leverage points for policy tive environmental effects. assessments of conservation investments in managed systems. lines) on fisheries and wildlife. makers to optimize the efficiency of public and rangelands. private conservation expenditures.

Evaluate how food production, freshwater Promote/manage forests for sustainable use of Develop integrated research and outreach pro- Understand the interactions between coast- availability, and natural landscapes can sus- non-forest timber products. grams that bridge rangelands, pastures and al and marine operations/use and the tainably coexist while facing a growing human hayfields. environment. population.

Evaluate how different policy and economic scenarios might alter the future availability, util- ity, and resilience of natural resources.

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities.

88 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Development of Sustainable Management Couple Human-Natural Systems Soils and Freshwater Forestlands Rangelands Marine and Coastal Ecosystems Practices

Understand and apply more widely the concept Emphasize technological innovation. Precision Integrate forest management practices with over- Emphasize and promote an integrated sys- Understand the status and trends of re- Reduce the use of nonrenewable inputs in agri- of socioecology: human and natural systems technologies (e.g., micro-irrigation) can en- all environmental sustainability and ecosystem tems approach to research and outreach to source abundance and distribution through cultural production. are linked and should thus be studied as one hance the sustainability of how humans use services protection goals. Currently this is only improve policy formulation that supports the accurate, timely assessments. broad human-natural system. water and soil. guaranteed by using non-mandatory guidelines long-term sustainable management of dynamic which require regular development and upgrades rangeland ecosystems. to meet more intensive resource use.

Increase environmental justice. Determine the capacity of soil and water to Increase understanding of the integrated effects Expand spatial and temporal scales of re- Understand interspecies and habitat-species Assess the capacity of agricultural and other meet current and future demands for agricul- of forest management and harvesting practices on search to address heterogeneous biophysical relationships to support forecasting of re- managed systems to deliver ecosystem ser- tural and forest products. soil, water and biodiversity protection needs. factors and response lags to management source stability and sustainability. vice, including trade-offs and synergies among practices that influence rangeland productivity ecosystem services. and ecosystem services.

More thoroughly apply Life Cycle Analysis to Evaluate the effectiveness of policies and Increase awareness towards reducing wood Promote trans-disciplinary research to address Understand human-use patterns that influ- Enhance internal ecosystem services that sup- major materials and natural resources. incentives that promote soil and water extraction from sensitive sites due to long term ef- crosscutting social and biophysical factors ence resource stability and sustainability. port production outcomes that reduce chemical conservation. fects on reduced productivity. that influence the dynamics of rangelands and inputs. tradeoffs resulting from changing demands for potentially competing ecosystem services.

Identify and account for external costs not in- Increase the spatial and temporal precision Develop realistic economic assessments of the Emphasize and promote integrative social sci- Advance the environmental sustainability of Assess food animal production in relation to ternalized in prices. of climate simulations in order to improve long-term effect of current use rates on resource ence research that addresses science-based ocean energy technologies. ecosystem services. outcomes prediction under future climate and ecosystem productivity. data interpretation and experience-based user scenarios (e.g., water availability; forest, knowledge. rangeland, and crop response to drought per- sistence; and soil erosion).

Improve agricultural and fisheries production Predict and evaluate how a growing and ur- Promote alternative practices that are less envi- Document and assess contributions of man- Develop sustainable fishing practices and Develop innovative waste management through more efficient use of land, water, en- banizing human populace with an increasing ronmentally taxing. agement decisions to short- and long-term technologies. technologies. ergy, and chemicals. standard of living will affect how soils are man- outcomes of conservation programs. aged and how water is allocated.

Simultaneously increase the generation of re- Apply systems-level analytics to understand Promote understanding of the reasonable scale Develop protocols and programs that generate Understand resiliency and adaptation to a Pursue systems-oriented and science-based newable energy while reducing the impacts feedbacks between humans, soil, and wa- and utilization rates of resources to reduce nega- systematic and standardized evidence-based changing climate. policy and regulation for agricultural and other of infrastructure (e.g., wind farms, wells, pipe- ter and identify key leverage points for policy tive environmental effects. assessments of conservation investments in managed systems. lines) on fisheries and wildlife. makers to optimize the efficiency of public and rangelands. private conservation expenditures.

Evaluate how food production, freshwater Promote/manage forests for sustainable use of Develop integrated research and outreach pro- Understand the interactions between coast- availability, and natural landscapes can sus- non-forest timber products. grams that bridge rangelands, pastures and al and marine operations/use and the tainably coexist while facing a growing human hayfields. environment. population.

Evaluate how different policy and economic scenarios might alter the future availability, util- ity, and resilience of natural resources.

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 89 Water Challenge

Appendix C (cont'd.)

Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Improve understanding of mech- Improve understanding of Improve technology to pro- Assess how the inter- anistic linkages between land risks and impacts to water cess and allocate water that section of Social (or uses, extractive consumption of supplies from extractive ensures sustainable, high Develop understanding of how existing Human) and Natural (or water resources, and watershed uses, carbon sequestration quality water for human uses and future policies and land uses impact Environmental) Systems Wastewater reuse and resistance and resilience to bet- technologies, and extrac- and maintenance of ecosys- water security, quantity, and quality over impact water security, Water use efficiency and Groundwater management and use of marginal water for ter inform policy tive technologies tem services regional and national scales quantity and quality productivity protection agriculture Agricultural water quality Water institutions and policy

Quantify nutrients loads and im- Quantify current agriculture Develop techniques and Engage communities early, and in mean- Increase use of hydro- Develop crop and livestock sys- Develop new management and Develop cropping systems and Develop new approaches to Develop river basin-scale pacts on watersheds. Identify use and overdraft. processes for removing phar- ingful ways, in decision and policy making economics to understand tems requiring less water per institutional arrangements to irrigation strategies using im- reduce nutrients, pathogens, institutional and planning ap- methods to reduce loads while maceuticals from wastewater. processes at the watershed level, giving and predict how new tech- unit of output. sustain groundwater systems, paired and recycled water while , salt, and emerging proaches that integrate land maintaining healthy economies. them a voice and ensuring that the results nologies and policies will including real-time data networks protecting soil health and quality. contaminants in agricultural runoff use, water, and environmental are implementable and effective ultimately affect the condi- and decision support systems and sediments. and urban interests for robust tion of the targeted water to optimize use of surface and management solutions. resource systems. groundwater. Identify water quality thresholds Quantify the impacts of in- Develop technology that allows Identify water impacts and poten- Increase economic under- Develop systems with increased Develop watershed management Address institutional barriers Determine socioeconomic barriers Investigate policy needs to sus- related to biological and human creased irrigation due to real-time monitoring and man- tial solutions resulting from existing standing of management resilience to flooding, drought systems that more effectively to the use of non-conventional to adoption of new water quality tain agricultural water supplies health. drought and changing climate agement of water systems. energy policy (i.e., production of biofuels, alternatives for wetland and and interruptions in supply. capture water during intense pre- waters. practices and develop innova- and increase institutional and in agricultural areas and de- hydrofracking,etc.). aquatic systems. cipitation events and store it for tive approaches to encourage and administrative flexibility. fine sustainable use limits. use during droughts. sustain adoption.

Determine the undeveloped foot- Improve understanding of Identify spatially-explicit land- Identify regional and national water impacts Enhance use of benefit/ Develop institutional arrange- Assess public health issues relat- Develop methods for onsite treat- prints needed in watersheds to introduced chemicals and scape and groundwater and potential solutions of existing agri- cost analysis and policies ments facilitating water sharing ed to pathogens and heavy metal ment of tile drainage water. sustain biodiversity, water quality, byproducts resulting from features that provide mech- culture policies and subsidies (i.e., water to increase understanding across sectors. contamination. or water quantity. hydrofracking. anisms of resistance and allocation laws, farm bill incentives, etc.). of public opinion (and de- resilience to natural and man- terminants of) concerning caused hazards, particularly economic-environmental in disaster-prone areas (e.g., trade-offs in watersheds. coastal habitats, areas of high- seismic activity, etc.). Identify land use variables (in- Improve understanding of the Increase precision of ground- Define water impacts resulting from re- Increase social science Develop water pricing and other Explore marginal water treatment Explore new methods to reduce dicators) impacting watershed presence of introduced chem- water data and models to better gional and national residential and urban research that identifies market-based approaches. technologies to reduce energy water quality impacts from ani- biodiversity and associated thresh- icals and byproducts resulting manage lands that recharge development patterns and identify potential decision-making processes requirements for treatment. mal waste. olds beyond which watersheds are from carbon injection in deep aquifers and prevent ground- alternatives and solutions. that are necessary for wa- impacted or degraded. water wells. water quality degradation from tershed solutions. agricultural and other sources. Define components of natural Apply geospatial approaches Examine water impacts resulting from ex- Increase understanding of Investigate use of brackish wa- regimes to maintain ecosystem such as modeling and remote isting transportation patterns and policies how educational, incentive, ter to supplement freshwater services, and develop regime- sensing technologies to better (impervious surface, sprawl, habitat loss, or regulatory tools change resources. based standards for water quality model water quality and quan- etc.) and analyze effects of potential solu- the behavior of the individ- and quantity that maintain eco- tify future water supply and tions (mass transit, high speed rail, cluster ual and institutional users system function and biological demand at a regional and na- development, etc). of water resources. diversity, from headwater streams tional scale. to estuaries. Improve understanding of sub- Use satellite and advanced Analyze inter- and intra-basin policy alterna- Develop a holistic un- Consider new approaches to re- surface flow and groundwater and information technologies to pre- tives required to balance water supply with derstanding of our water duce costs for desalination. surface water interactions crucial dict potential water conflict at demand and ensure resilience of supply in resources in a systems for biological communities and all scales and inform policy and the face of disaster and climate change. context. provide mechanisms for resilience management. to drought, climate warming, and disturbance. Define achievable restoration tar- Analyze the importance of scale for Develop salt-tolerant crops. gets for urban and agricultural watershed management and BMPs imple- streams. mentation to maximize cost effectiveness and ecological lift. Assess the optimal places to focus future crop production and livestock grazing within sustainable water use limits. Assess regional and national water pric- ing, policy, conservation, and management structures needed to balance water demand with sustainable supply

90 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Water Challenge

Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Improve understanding of mech- Improve understanding of Improve technology to pro- Assess how the inter- anistic linkages between land risks and impacts to water cess and allocate water that section of Social (or uses, extractive consumption of supplies from extractive ensures sustainable, high Develop understanding of how existing Human) and Natural (or water resources, and watershed uses, carbon sequestration quality water for human uses and future policies and land uses impact Environmental) Systems Wastewater reuse and resistance and resilience to bet- technologies, and extrac- and maintenance of ecosys- water security, quantity, and quality over impact water security, Water use efficiency and Groundwater management and use of marginal water for ter inform policy tive technologies tem services regional and national scales quantity and quality productivity protection agriculture Agricultural water quality Water institutions and policy

Quantify nutrients loads and im- Quantify current agriculture Develop techniques and Engage communities early, and in mean- Increase use of hydro- Develop crop and livestock sys- Develop new management and Develop cropping systems and Develop new approaches to Develop river basin-scale pacts on watersheds. Identify use and overdraft. processes for removing phar- ingful ways, in decision and policy making economics to understand tems requiring less water per institutional arrangements to irrigation strategies using im- reduce nutrients, pathogens, institutional and planning ap- methods to reduce loads while maceuticals from wastewater. processes at the watershed level, giving and predict how new tech- unit of output. sustain groundwater systems, paired and recycled water while pesticides, salt, and emerging proaches that integrate land maintaining healthy economies. them a voice and ensuring that the results nologies and policies will including real-time data networks protecting soil health and quality. contaminants in agricultural runoff use, water, and environmental are implementable and effective ultimately affect the condi- and decision support systems and sediments. and urban interests for robust tion of the targeted water to optimize use of surface and management solutions. resource systems. groundwater. Identify water quality thresholds Quantify the impacts of in- Develop technology that allows Identify water impacts and poten- Increase economic under- Develop systems with increased Develop watershed management Address institutional barriers Determine socioeconomic barriers Investigate policy needs to sus- related to biological and human creased irrigation due to real-time monitoring and man- tial solutions resulting from existing standing of management resilience to flooding, drought systems that more effectively to the use of non-conventional to adoption of new water quality tain agricultural water supplies health. drought and changing climate agement of water systems. energy policy (i.e., production of biofuels, alternatives for wetland and and interruptions in supply. capture water during intense pre- waters. practices and develop innova- and increase institutional and in agricultural areas and de- hydrofracking,etc.). aquatic systems. cipitation events and store it for tive approaches to encourage and administrative flexibility. fine sustainable use limits. use during droughts. sustain adoption.

Determine the undeveloped foot- Improve understanding of Identify spatially-explicit land- Identify regional and national water impacts Enhance use of benefit/ Develop institutional arrange- Assess public health issues relat- Develop methods for onsite treat- prints needed in watersheds to introduced chemicals and scape and groundwater and potential solutions of existing agri- cost analysis and policies ments facilitating water sharing ed to pathogens and heavy metal ment of tile drainage water. sustain biodiversity, water quality, byproducts resulting from features that provide mech- culture policies and subsidies (i.e., water to increase understanding across sectors. contamination. or water quantity. hydrofracking. anisms of resistance and allocation laws, farm bill incentives, etc.). of public opinion (and de- resilience to natural and man- terminants of) concerning caused hazards, particularly economic-environmental in disaster-prone areas (e.g., trade-offs in watersheds. coastal habitats, areas of high- seismic activity, etc.). Identify land use variables (in- Improve understanding of the Increase precision of ground- Define water impacts resulting from re- Increase social science Develop water pricing and other Explore marginal water treatment Explore new methods to reduce dicators) impacting watershed presence of introduced chem- water data and models to better gional and national residential and urban research that identifies market-based approaches. technologies to reduce energy water quality impacts from ani- biodiversity and associated thresh- icals and byproducts resulting manage lands that recharge development patterns and identify potential decision-making processes requirements for treatment. mal waste. olds beyond which watersheds are from carbon injection in deep aquifers and prevent ground- alternatives and solutions. that are necessary for wa- impacted or degraded. water wells. water quality degradation from tershed solutions. agricultural and other sources. Define components of natural Apply geospatial approaches Examine water impacts resulting from ex- Increase understanding of Investigate use of brackish wa- regimes to maintain ecosystem such as modeling and remote isting transportation patterns and policies how educational, incentive, ter to supplement freshwater services, and develop regime- sensing technologies to better (impervious surface, sprawl, habitat loss, or regulatory tools change resources. based standards for water quality model water quality and quan- etc.) and analyze effects of potential solu- the behavior of the individ- and quantity that maintain eco- tify future water supply and tions (mass transit, high speed rail, cluster ual and institutional users system function and biological demand at a regional and na- development, etc). of water resources. diversity, from headwater streams tional scale. to estuaries. Improve understanding of sub- Use satellite and advanced Analyze inter- and intra-basin policy alterna- Develop a holistic un- Consider new approaches to re- surface flow and groundwater and information technologies to pre- tives required to balance water supply with derstanding of our water duce costs for desalination. surface water interactions crucial dict potential water conflict at demand and ensure resilience of supply in resources in a systems for biological communities and all scales and inform policy and the face of disaster and climate change. context. provide mechanisms for resilience management. to drought, climate warming, and disturbance. Define achievable restoration tar- Analyze the importance of scale for Develop salt-tolerant crops. gets for urban and agricultural watershed management and BMPs imple- streams. mentation to maximize cost effectiveness and ecological lift. Assess the optimal places to focus future crop production and livestock grazing within sustainable water use limits. Assess regional and national water pric- ing, policy, conservation, and management structures needed to balance water demand * Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. with sustainable supply Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities. APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 91 Climate Change Challenge

Appendix C (cont'd.)

Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Improved Economic Greenhouse Gas Assessments of Climate Conceptualizing and Mitigation and Soil Observation and Management, Risk, Crop, Livestock, Weed, Change Impacts and Modeling Complex Adaptive Strategies and Carbon Sequestration Experimental Approaches Simulations and Modeling and Uncertainty Climate Science and Pest Models Adaptation Decision Science Systems Management and Monitoring Communication Policy Analysis

Identify signals of climate Develop mechanistic eco- Identify uncertainties of Development of climate Improve and evalu- Quantify costs and ben- Risk perception, in- Characterizing and ana- Develop adaptive strategies for live- Systems and BMPs to Identification of gaps Economic impacts of mitiga- change that inform short-, system models comparable future climate parameters change scenarios relevant at ate existing models for efits of adaptation at the vestment decision lyzing climate uncertainty stock, including managing weather reduce greenhouse gas in knowledge, so- tion policies on agriculture and intermediate-, and long- to statistical models, suitable as a function of spatial local to regional scales and use in climate change farm level and for spe- making under uncer- and impacts on system extremes; accounting for costs and emissions for crops, ani- cioeconomic biases, the food sector, including costs term predictions, forecasting for ecosystem manage- scale, given uncertainties time horizons that include and weather variability cialty crops, livestock and tainty, and the role of productivity; demand constraints of renovation or relo- mals and animal waste and other factors of energy and other inputs, and early warning involving ment planning under climatic in mode accuracy, future factors ranging from unique studies; for addressing grain crop production temporal discounting. for water, nutrients, and cation of facilities; information on systems, and food process- constraining effective environmental impacts, and re- whole-system structure and futures. anthropogenic forcing, physical features not cap- carbon, nitrogen, and systems. other resources; and the breeds more tolerant to stress- ing and other food system communication to gional and social equity. function. natural variability, and at- tured by climate models, such water changes in re- environment. es; managing waste; and biofuel activities beyond the farm target audiences. tributable past changes. as lake influences, to regional sponse to climate; and production. gate. projections of changes in land for assessing resource use, environmental policies, or needs and efficiencies. economics.

Define effects of predicted Improve climate-based mod- Identify and estimate Improve and develop physi- Develop and test new Assess economic impacts The role of Spatial and temporal Develop new, more tolerant crop Systems and practices to Evaluate framing of Evaluate policy mechanisms, climate change on nature-hu- els for areas where we are location-specific climate cal and empirical downscaling crop models for pe- and costs of adaptation participatory pro- dynamics of production varieties through convention- offset emissions by seques- issues for optimum including tax incentives, en- man interactions. expecting the most rapid drivers and their uncer- techniques tailored to agri- rennial fruit crops, for entire systems. cesses in scenario systems. al breeding, molecular-assisted tering carbon in trees and communication ef- vironmental and land use global impacts ( e.g., melt- tainties under a range of culturally relevant variables vegetables, and other development. breeding, and genetic engineering. soil and also methods to fectiveness for target regulation, agricultural sub- ing tundra). future scenarios. (e.g.,. leaf wetness, livestock “specialty” food crops, University emphasis on crops not quantify offsets, including audiences. sidy and trade policies, heat stress, and drought and wood products; and bio- currently being addressed by com- measurement uncertainty. insurance policies and disaster freeze risk). fuel crops. mercial seed companies. assistance, soil and water con- servation policies, and energy policies including those involv- ing carbon trading and biofuel production.

Define interactions and ef- Improve climate-based mod- Define the impacts of Develop methods to spatially Develop and test new Integrate economic with Test and design de- Systems characterization, Develop new, rapid breeding tech- Greenhouse gas and car- Use new technolo- fects of climate and habitat els for key insects, diseases, uncertainty and irrevers- interpolate climate data. livestock models fo- environmental and so- cision support tools including a comprehen- nologies to quickly respond to bon accounting tools for gies and social changes to population, meta- and disease vector dynam- ibility associated with cused on heat stress cial impacts of climate for adaptation and sive coverage of farm emergent vulnerabilities to previ- farmers and food system networking for com- population, and community ics, and potential human, climate change and im- and greenhouse gas change and adaptation mitigation measures sizes and types, com- ously nonthreatening diseases and users. munication with dynamics and change at animal and plant health pacts on management mitigation in livestock (e.g., valuation of ecosys- appropriate for dif- modity transportation pests. target audiences. ecosystem boundaries, along impacts. strategies and public facilities. tem services, impacts on ferent producers and and storage systems, habitat gradients, and within policies for mitigating farm structure, and rural consumers. and food processing and ocean current systems, at lo- impacts. livelihoods, social equity distribution. cal to regional scales. and justice, etc.).

Develop practical tech- Improve methods for quanti- Develop improved com- Develop sophisticated real- Develop and test new Develop improved water man- Policy mechanism de- nologies for measuring, fying carbon pools and fluxes munication language and time weather-based systems insect, pathogen and agement systems and irrigation sign for greenhouse gas analyzing, and assessing suitable for incorporation into education from the sci- for monitoring and forecasting weed models to project scheduling technology. mitigation. environmental responses to ongoing inventory programs entists/researcher to the stress periods, pest and weed future range shifts, pop- climate change, especially on such as for fisheries, for- decision maker/politician, pressure, and extreme events. ulation dynamics, and full ecosystem levels. estry, etc. and public at-large. epidemiology.

Develop real-time early Improve models for Define best-practice Develop adaptive strategies for warning systems that use predicting changing tools and processes for weed and pest control, such as im- confluences of modeling hydrologic regime impacts quantifying and assessing proved regional monitoring and IPM technologies in predicting on natural and managed risk under typical natural communication regarding weed and changes and are informative ecosystems (e.g,. forest resource management to governments, agencies, health and yield under scenarios, and for better pest range shifts; enhance real-time and the public at large. scenarios with increased managing under future weather-based systems for weed evapotranspiration). conditions. and pest control; develop non- chemical options for new pests; and develop rapid-response action plans to control invasive species.

Prioritize resources for Coordinate climate and Understanding ecosystem Develop adaptive strategies for research to previously ecosystem research and change and degradation: storage and transport system (e.g., understudied areas where data for improved modeling individual behavior and redesign and relocation of infrastruc- changes appear to be the of weather variability and community resilience ture, and assess impacts of rises in most rapid and may have the extreme cyclical events largest global and economic (wildfire, insect and disease; sea levels on port facilities). impacts (e.g., high latitudes). cyclonic storms; etc.).

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Develop adaptive strategies for food Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities. processing and marketing systems

92 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Improved Economic Greenhouse Gas Assessments of Climate Conceptualizing and Mitigation and Soil Observation and Management, Risk, Crop, Livestock, Weed, Change Impacts and Modeling Complex Adaptive Strategies and Carbon Sequestration Experimental Approaches Simulations and Modeling and Uncertainty Climate Science and Pest Models Adaptation Decision Science Systems Management and Monitoring Communication Policy Analysis

Identify signals of climate Develop mechanistic eco- Identify uncertainties of Development of climate Improve and evalu- Quantify costs and ben- Risk perception, in- Characterizing and ana- Develop adaptive strategies for live- Systems and BMPs to Identification of gaps Economic impacts of mitiga- change that inform short-, system models comparable future climate parameters change scenarios relevant at ate existing models for efits of adaptation at the vestment decision lyzing climate uncertainty stock, including managing weather reduce greenhouse gas in knowledge, so- tion policies on agriculture and intermediate-, and long- to statistical models, suitable as a function of spatial local to regional scales and use in climate change farm level and for spe- making under uncer- and impacts on system extremes; accounting for costs and emissions for crops, ani- cioeconomic biases, the food sector, including costs term predictions, forecasting for ecosystem manage- scale, given uncertainties time horizons that include and weather variability cialty crops, livestock and tainty, and the role of productivity; demand constraints of renovation or relo- mals and animal waste and other factors of energy and other inputs, and early warning involving ment planning under climatic in mode accuracy, future factors ranging from unique studies; for addressing grain crop production temporal discounting. for water, nutrients, and cation of facilities; information on systems, and food process- constraining effective environmental impacts, and re- whole-system structure and futures. anthropogenic forcing, physical features not cap- carbon, nitrogen, and systems. other resources; and the breeds more tolerant to stress- ing and other food system communication to gional and social equity. function. natural variability, and at- tured by climate models, such water changes in re- environment. es; managing waste; and biofuel activities beyond the farm target audiences. tributable past changes. as lake influences, to regional sponse to climate; and production. gate. projections of changes in land for assessing resource use, environmental policies, or needs and efficiencies. economics.

Define effects of predicted Improve climate-based mod- Identify and estimate Improve and develop physi- Develop and test new Assess economic impacts The role of Spatial and temporal Develop new, more tolerant crop Systems and practices to Evaluate framing of Evaluate policy mechanisms, climate change on nature-hu- els for areas where we are location-specific climate cal and empirical downscaling crop models for pe- and costs of adaptation participatory pro- dynamics of production varieties through convention- offset emissions by seques- issues for optimum including tax incentives, en- man interactions. expecting the most rapid drivers and their uncer- techniques tailored to agri- rennial fruit crops, for entire foods systems. cesses in scenario systems. al breeding, molecular-assisted tering carbon in trees and communication ef- vironmental and land use global impacts ( e.g., melt- tainties under a range of culturally relevant variables vegetables, and other development. breeding, and genetic engineering. soil and also methods to fectiveness for target regulation, agricultural sub- ing tundra). future scenarios. (e.g.,. leaf wetness, livestock “specialty” food crops, University emphasis on crops not quantify offsets, including audiences. sidy and trade policies, heat stress, and drought and wood products; and bio- currently being addressed by com- measurement uncertainty. insurance policies and disaster freeze risk). fuel crops. mercial seed companies. assistance, soil and water con- servation policies, and energy policies including those involv- ing carbon trading and biofuel production.

Define interactions and ef- Improve climate-based mod- Define the impacts of Develop methods to spatially Develop and test new Integrate economic with Test and design de- Systems characterization, Develop new, rapid breeding tech- Greenhouse gas and car- Use new technolo- fects of climate and habitat els for key insects, diseases, uncertainty and irrevers- interpolate climate data. livestock models fo- environmental and so- cision support tools including a comprehen- nologies to quickly respond to bon accounting tools for gies and social changes to population, meta- and disease vector dynam- ibility associated with cused on heat stress cial impacts of climate for adaptation and sive coverage of farm emergent vulnerabilities to previ- farmers and food system networking for com- population, and community ics, and potential human, climate change and im- and greenhouse gas change and adaptation mitigation measures sizes and types, com- ously nonthreatening diseases and users. munication with dynamics and change at animal and plant health pacts on management mitigation in livestock (e.g., valuation of ecosys- appropriate for dif- modity transportation pests. target audiences. ecosystem boundaries, along impacts. strategies and public facilities. tem services, impacts on ferent producers and and storage systems, habitat gradients, and within policies for mitigating farm structure, and rural consumers. and food processing and ocean current systems, at lo- impacts. livelihoods, social equity distribution. cal to regional scales. and justice, etc.).

Develop practical tech- Improve methods for quanti- Develop improved com- Develop sophisticated real- Develop and test new Develop improved water man- Policy mechanism de- nologies for measuring, fying carbon pools and fluxes munication language and time weather-based systems insect, pathogen and agement systems and irrigation sign for greenhouse gas analyzing, and assessing suitable for incorporation into education from the sci- for monitoring and forecasting weed models to project scheduling technology. mitigation. environmental responses to ongoing inventory programs entists/researcher to the stress periods, pest and weed future range shifts, pop- climate change, especially on such as for fisheries, for- decision maker/politician, pressure, and extreme events. ulation dynamics, and full ecosystem levels. estry, etc. and public at-large. epidemiology.

Develop real-time early Improve models for Define best-practice Develop adaptive strategies for warning systems that use predicting changing tools and processes for weed and pest control, such as im- confluences of modeling hydrologic regime impacts quantifying and assessing proved regional monitoring and IPM technologies in predicting on natural and managed risk under typical natural communication regarding weed and changes and are informative ecosystems (e.g,. forest resource management to governments, agencies, health and yield under scenarios, and for better pest range shifts; enhance real-time and the public at large. scenarios with increased managing under future weather-based systems for weed evapotranspiration). conditions. and pest control; develop non- chemical options for new pests; and develop rapid-response action plans to control invasive species.

Prioritize resources for Coordinate climate and Understanding ecosystem Develop adaptive strategies for research to previously ecosystem research and change and degradation: storage and transport system (e.g., understudied areas where data for improved modeling individual behavior and redesign and relocation of infrastruc- changes appear to be the of weather variability and community resilience ture, and assess impacts of rises in most rapid and may have the extreme cyclical events largest global and economic (wildfire, insect and disease; sea levels on port facilities). impacts (e.g., high latitudes). cyclonic storms; etc.).

Develop adaptive strategies for food processing and marketing systems

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 93 Energy Challenge

Appendix C (cont'd.)

Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Improve Understanding of Costs and Benefits of Energy Development and Use and Public Perceptions Related to Energy to Better Inform Policy and Advance Environmentally and Economically Friendly Identify New and Alternative Renewable Minimize Impacts of Increasing Energy Maintain Available Energy and Increase Renewable Energy Resources Demands on Natural Resources Efficiency to Reduce Ecological Footprint Education Energy Security and the Bioeconomy

Conduct full life-cycle analyses of costs and Identify and test new biofuel products from Develop uniform indicators of environmental Increase water-use efficiency in steam produc- Develop K-12 science programs to en- Devise agricultural systems that utilize inputs benefits of different energy sources at local waste streams of land management activities. effects of energy development and use. tion and cooling systems. gage youth in renewable energy and support efficiently and create fewer waste products. through national scales. teachers that explain the social, political and environmental challenges associated with fos- sil fuels and the challenges and opportunities for transitioning to renewable sources.

Quantify trade-offs among land/sea-use al- Identify and test new or more efficient ener- Quantify biodiversity impacts of energy devel- Increase efficiency and use of existing energy Promote college and post-graduate programs Assess the environmental, sociological, and ternatives (i.e., fisheries, forestry, grazing) gy extraction methods from existing biofuel opment and use (e.g., slash and coarse woody sources/infrastructure (e.g., hydrofracking for that develop a capable and diverse workforce economic sustainability of biofuel and coprod- in areas that may be developed for energy products. debris removal for biofuels; fish passage and natural gas production). through mentored research internships and uct production at local and regional levels. production. hydrological changes at hydropower facilities; fellowships. Energy development and produc- etc.). tion will require well-trained scientists from diverse STEM-related disciplines. The need for graduate degrees in this sector necessi- tates increased funding for internships and fellowships.

Quantify public perceptions regarding energy Develop marine renewable energy sources. Quantify behavioral changes and mortality Increase fuel conversion efficiency for biofuels. Promote renewable energy outreach programs Develop technologies to improve production- development and land/sea-use alternatives. of organisms associated with energy devel- through the university land-grant system that processing efficiency of regionally appropriate opment and use (e.g., bird mortality at wind enable the public to better understand the sus- biomass into (including biofuels). turbines; marine mammal and fish attraction or tainability and environmental impacts of their avoidance of tidal energy facilities; relationship energy choices and increase energy conserva- of animal movements to electromagnetic field tion practices. changes; etc.).

Conduct economic analyses regarding present Identify and develop markets for renewable Identify sources and quantify water and air pol- Expand biofuel research with respect to non- and future energy production costs compared energy. Many such markets require process, lution associated with energy production. , algae, pest issues that limit biofuel to the projected costs of renewable energy. transportation, or combustion modifications. crop yields, and emissions of alternative fuels.

Quantify water demand for steam production Restructure economic and policy incentives for and cooling of geothermal, biofuels, solar and growth of the next generation domestic biofu- traditional energy sources (coal, natural gas, els industry. nuclear).

Understand public’s perceptions of alternative energy sources and barriers to adoption of en- ergy conservation practices.

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities.

94 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Improve Understanding of Costs and Benefits of Energy Development and Use and Public Perceptions Related to Energy to Better Inform Policy and Advance Environmentally and Economically Friendly Identify New and Alternative Renewable Minimize Impacts of Increasing Energy Maintain Available Energy and Increase Renewable Energy Resources Demands on Natural Resources Efficiency to Reduce Ecological Footprint Education Energy Security and the Bioeconomy

Conduct full life-cycle analyses of costs and Identify and test new biofuel products from Develop uniform indicators of environmental Increase water-use efficiency in steam produc- Develop K-12 science programs to en- Devise agricultural systems that utilize inputs benefits of different energy sources at local waste streams of land management activities. effects of energy development and use. tion and cooling systems. gage youth in renewable energy and support efficiently and create fewer waste products. through national scales. teachers that explain the social, political and environmental challenges associated with fos- sil fuels and the challenges and opportunities for transitioning to renewable sources.

Quantify trade-offs among land/sea-use al- Identify and test new or more efficient ener- Quantify biodiversity impacts of energy devel- Increase efficiency and use of existing energy Promote college and post-graduate programs Assess the environmental, sociological, and ternatives (i.e., fisheries, forestry, grazing) gy extraction methods from existing biofuel opment and use (e.g., slash and coarse woody sources/infrastructure (e.g., hydrofracking for that develop a capable and diverse workforce economic sustainability of biofuel and coprod- in areas that may be developed for energy products. debris removal for biofuels; fish passage and natural gas production). through mentored research internships and uct production at local and regional levels. production. hydrological changes at hydropower facilities; fellowships. Energy development and produc- etc.). tion will require well-trained scientists from diverse STEM-related disciplines. The need for graduate degrees in this sector necessi- tates increased funding for internships and fellowships.

Quantify public perceptions regarding energy Develop marine renewable energy sources. Quantify behavioral changes and mortality Increase fuel conversion efficiency for biofuels. Promote renewable energy outreach programs Develop technologies to improve production- development and land/sea-use alternatives. of organisms associated with energy devel- through the university land-grant system that processing efficiency of regionally appropriate opment and use (e.g., bird mortality at wind enable the public to better understand the sus- biomass into bioproducts (including biofuels). turbines; marine mammal and fish attraction or tainability and environmental impacts of their avoidance of tidal energy facilities; relationship energy choices and increase energy conserva- of animal movements to electromagnetic field tion practices. changes; etc.).

Conduct economic analyses regarding present Identify and develop markets for renewable Identify sources and quantify water and air pol- Expand biofuel research with respect to non- and future energy production costs compared energy. Many such markets require process, lution associated with energy production. arable land, algae, pest issues that limit biofuel to the projected costs of renewable energy. transportation, or combustion modifications. crop yields, and emissions of alternative fuels.

Quantify water demand for steam production Restructure economic and policy incentives for and cooling of geothermal, biofuels, solar and growth of the next generation domestic biofu- traditional energy sources (coal, natural gas, els industry. nuclear).

Understand public’s perceptions of alternative energy sources and barriers to adoption of en- ergy conservation practices.

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 95 Education Challenge

Appendix C (cont'd.)

Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Include Natural Resources in K-12 Communicate Scientific Information to the Education by Incorporation into STEM Strengthen Natural Resources Curricula at Improve the Scientific Literacy of the General Public in Efficient and Effective Promote Diversity in the Natural Resources Curriculum and Activities. the Higher Education Level Nation’s Citizens Ways Promote Natural Resource Stewardship Profession

Evaluative mechanisms to assess effective- Federal agencies must maintain support for Include in K-12 standards a demonstration Fund research to understand the linkage be- Integrate natural resources management Understand the factors that lead to women and ness of K-12 natural resource curricula that applied research. of the process through which new scientific tween ways that decisions are made and ways with natural sciences and engage knowledge minorities choosing natural resources curricula assess the degree to which concepts are knowledge is realized. that scientific information is communicated about the cutting edge science (e.g., genetic and careers in numbers far below their propor- retained over multiple years and used in multi- and broaden strategies for science communi- engineering, atmospheric dynamics, biologi- tion in the population. faceted, integrated critical thinking exercises. cations, which will require teams of experts in cal control, fire physics, etc.), not as separate communication, decision science, and natural courses, but as issues integrated into applied resources scientists. natural resources courses.

Evaluate the most effective suite of experien- Understand the factors affecting undergrad- Conduct pedagogy research to determine what Develop better methods of communicating un- Integrate quantitative modeling with monitoring Understand the factors contributing to the im- tial activities that maximize understanding of uate and graduate enrollments and career is needed to more effectively include active certainty and probability to the public because and data assimilation and increase future lead- balance in enrollment of women and minorities natural resource science and management opportunities in natural resources-related inquiry into teaching and learning at both the these terms are interpreted as meaning a lack ers’ ability to work with quantitative models. among various natural resources disciplines, and address key components of STEM req- fields. K-12 and higher education levels. of understanding. and how this imbalance may affect the avail- uisites, and develop and evaluate integrated ability of highly qualified professionals in the programs for effectiveness in knowledge reten- workforce. tion, critical thinking, and application over the long-term.

Understand the potential use of technology as Expand university training to include both tradi- Train more science journalists. Develop methods to lessen the influence of Integrate natural science with social sciences a bridging tool for connecting youth to the out- tional base of technical knowledge, skills, and conformational bias in order to effectively com- and humanities within the human context that doors, and develop a better understanding of behaviors, and problem-solving, quantitative municate uncertainty and probability in natural determines policy and practice. the role of social science and use of social in- reasoning, critical thinking, and communica- resources. dicators in youth that lead to behavior change. tion skills.

Engage underrepresented populations in Continue research on pedagogy to produce Understand how to communicate effectively Develop communication and collaboration STEM, natural resources and sustainability professionals ready to face modern natural re- and efficiently using new media platforms, and skills that enable leaders to understand and curricula in our schools and develop curricula sources management challenges. integrate teams of scientists and experts in engage groups with highly divergent values recognizing differences in cultural and racial technological aspects of new media with com- systems. values regarding natural resource use, and munication experts. evaluate the effectiveness of these curricula over the long-term.

Specific topics needing empirical research Revised reward structures within scientific A cross-APLU study might recommend al- include: surveys to better understand what agencies and universities so that communicat- ternative exploratory structures to enhance youth are concerned about; longitudinal stud- ing scientific information to decision makers is interdisciplinary engagement across university ies to determine if increased knowledge and appropriately valued. Federal grants should re- campuses and lead to more innovation in edu- awareness leads to behavioral change, and quire a comprehensive plan for communication cating our future natural resources stewards. to address promising strategies and practices of the results of natural resources research to for natural resources education that are ac- decision makers and communicating research cessible to school administrators, decision results to non-scientific audiences at a level makers and funders; understanding how adult that makes a real difference, not as an after- constructs such as “climate change” might be thought or “add-on.” translated into actionable items for youth; un- derstanding how adult learning and fears about science impact the way youth perceive natu- ral resources education; and developing and analyzing practices in systems thinking and complexity education..

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities.

96 — Science, Education and Outreach Roadmap for Natural Resources Research Needs and Priorities* Research Needs and Priorities*

Include Natural Resources in K-12 Communicate Scientific Information to the Education by Incorporation into STEM Strengthen Natural Resources Curricula at Improve the Scientific Literacy of the General Public in Efficient and Effective Promote Diversity in the Natural Resources Curriculum and Activities. the Higher Education Level Nation’s Citizens Ways Promote Natural Resource Stewardship Profession

Evaluative mechanisms to assess effective- Federal agencies must maintain support for Include in K-12 standards a demonstration Fund research to understand the linkage be- Integrate natural resources management Understand the factors that lead to women and ness of K-12 natural resource curricula that applied research. of the process through which new scientific tween ways that decisions are made and ways with natural sciences and engage knowledge minorities choosing natural resources curricula assess the degree to which concepts are knowledge is realized. that scientific information is communicated about the cutting edge science (e.g., genetic and careers in numbers far below their propor- retained over multiple years and used in multi- and broaden strategies for science communi- engineering, atmospheric dynamics, biologi- tion in the population. faceted, integrated critical thinking exercises. cations, which will require teams of experts in cal control, fire physics, etc.), not as separate communication, decision science, and natural courses, but as issues integrated into applied resources scientists. natural resources courses.

Evaluate the most effective suite of experien- Understand the factors affecting undergrad- Conduct pedagogy research to determine what Develop better methods of communicating un- Integrate quantitative modeling with monitoring Understand the factors contributing to the im- tial activities that maximize understanding of uate and graduate enrollments and career is needed to more effectively include active certainty and probability to the public because and data assimilation and increase future lead- balance in enrollment of women and minorities natural resource science and management opportunities in natural resources-related inquiry into teaching and learning at both the these terms are interpreted as meaning a lack ers’ ability to work with quantitative models. among various natural resources disciplines, and address key components of STEM req- fields. K-12 and higher education levels. of understanding. and how this imbalance may affect the avail- uisites, and develop and evaluate integrated ability of highly qualified professionals in the programs for effectiveness in knowledge reten- workforce. tion, critical thinking, and application over the long-term.

Understand the potential use of technology as Expand university training to include both tradi- Train more science journalists. Develop methods to lessen the influence of Integrate natural science with social sciences a bridging tool for connecting youth to the out- tional base of technical knowledge, skills, and conformational bias in order to effectively com- and humanities within the human context that doors, and develop a better understanding of behaviors, and problem-solving, quantitative municate uncertainty and probability in natural determines policy and practice. the role of social science and use of social in- reasoning, critical thinking, and communica- resources. dicators in youth that lead to behavior change. tion skills.

Engage underrepresented populations in Continue research on pedagogy to produce Understand how to communicate effectively Develop communication and collaboration STEM, natural resources and sustainability professionals ready to face modern natural re- and efficiently using new media platforms, and skills that enable leaders to understand and curricula in our schools and develop curricula sources management challenges. integrate teams of scientists and experts in engage groups with highly divergent values recognizing differences in cultural and racial technological aspects of new media with com- systems. values regarding natural resource use, and munication experts. evaluate the effectiveness of these curricula over the long-term.

Specific topics needing empirical research Revised reward structures within scientific A cross-APLU study might recommend al- include: surveys to better understand what agencies and universities so that communicat- ternative exploratory structures to enhance youth are concerned about; longitudinal stud- ing scientific information to decision makers is interdisciplinary engagement across university ies to determine if increased knowledge and appropriately valued. Federal grants should re- campuses and lead to more innovation in edu- awareness leads to behavioral change, and quire a comprehensive plan for communication cating our future natural resources stewards. to address promising strategies and practices of the results of natural resources research to for natural resources education that are ac- decision makers and communicating research cessible to school administrators, decision results to non-scientific audiences at a level makers and funders; understanding how adult that makes a real difference, not as an after- constructs such as “climate change” might be thought or “add-on.” translated into actionable items for youth; un- derstanding how adult learning and fears about science impact the way youth perceive natu- ral resources education; and developing and analyzing practices in systems thinking and complexity education..

* Items in Green come from ESCOP A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (APLU 2010); items in Blue come from the NR Roadmap; items in Purple are overlapping. Items in Orange indicate the original wording of overlapping agricultural priorities.

APLU Boards on Natural Resources and Oceans, Atmosphere, and Climate — 97