CONFERENCE REPORT 2018 MANAGING DISRUPTIVE TRANSITIONS IDEAS, INSTITUTIONS & IDIOMS CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 1 MANAGING DISRUPTIVE TRANSITIONS IDEAS, INSTITUTIONS & IDIOMS 16, 17 & 18 JANUARY 2018 | NEW DELHI CONFERENCE REPORT 2018 Published by Observer Research Foundation 2018 © All Rights Reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, altered, printed, copied or transmitted in any form — physical or digital — without prior permission in writing from the publisher. DESIGN: GREATLATITUDE.COM PHOTO CREDIT: AMIT KG / SHUTTERSTOCK.COM Contents Outcome Statement 07 World in flux: India’s choices may help manage disruptions 08 Inaugural Address: Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel 12 Raisina: Dialogues from Facebook 16 Agenda 20 Navigating the Chrome Age: Jobs, Growth and Public Policy 32 Constrained Capital: Paving the Path for Infrastructure Investments in India and Other Emerging Economies 35 In the Mind of the Bear: Russia’s Next Geopolitical Manoeuvre 38 HE 2018 iteration of the Raisina Dialogue – Managing Disruptive Transitions: Ideas, Institutions & Idioms Women in Foreign and Security Policy 41 – explored today’s dynamic, disruptive times, when old partnerships are fracturing, new partnerships The Terror State: Innovative Solutions to New Threats 44 are conditional and the notions of power and sovereignty are being dramatically altered. The five pillars T Ministerial Address: Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs, India 47 on which the third edition of the Dialogue rested are: New Ethics For A New Liberalism; The Nation State And Other States; Robotics, Regulation and Regime Change; Public Goods, Private Provision; and Smart Policy, Politics and Gender 51 Cities, Smart Phones, Smart Democracy. Innovation and Creation: Geoeconomics In the Knowledge Age 54 The Killer Bytes: Countering Violent Extremism 57 The 2018 conference had an expansive scope that touched over 50 different themes, which had drawn Strat-Con: Emerging Security Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific 60 more than 500 speakers and delegates from 86 countries. This diverse delegate body spurred public interest Giving India a Strategic Edge: Production, Innovation & Technology Partnerships 63 with a record registration of 1,800 participants. Over 40 percent of the delegates were women, showing a concerted effort at gender parity. In Conversation: M.J. Akbar & Zalmay Khalilzad 66 The End of the Liberal Order: The Beginning of the Asian Century? 68 The dialogue is conceptualised to be the foremost global ideation arena located in the emerging world. It Framing the Health Agenda for the G20 70 is India’s contribution to the efforts that will discover solutions, identify opportunities and provide stability to Towards EU 2.0: Seeking Leadership in a New World Order 73 a century that has witnessed a tumultuous two decades. This platform endeavours to offer a blueprint for a new global order incubated in the Eastern Hemisphere; for a paradigm of global development led by the Global The Rise of City-States: Democracy, Security, and Foreign Policy 76 South; and for a responsive post-modern social order lent credence by the wisdom of an ancient culture. Shaping a New Ethos: The Role of Emerging Powers in the G20 79 Towards a New Framework for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific 82 Fragile World: Preventing a Scorched Earth 85 From Cold War to Hot Peace 88 Nuclear Unpredictability: Managing the Global Nuclear Framework 91 Contested Connectivity: Economic Tracks – Political Cargo? 94 The Afghan Poser 97 Ministerial Address: Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defence, Indonesia 99 Ministerial Address: Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh 103 Towards a Bay of Bengal Community: Development, Growth and Security 107 ORGANISING PARTNERS Digital Money: Innovating with India for the World 110 From Multilaterals to Multinationals: Provision of Global Public Goods 112 Alignment, Arrangement Or Alliance? Debating The Future of the Indo-Pacific 115 Fragile World: Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Challenges in 2018 118 Conflict Rights and the Machine 121 A Disruptive World: Solutions for Tomorrow 125 Reimagining the Commonwealth for the 21st Century 128 Bots of War: Regulations and Safeguards for Cyber Security 131 HOSTS S. Jaishankar Sunjoy Joshi FOREIGN SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF CHAIRMAN, ORF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Samir Saran Gaddam Dharmendra PRESIDENT, ORF JOINT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA TEAM RAISINA Pushan Das Col. Naveen Nijhawan PROGRAMME COORDINATOR, OFFICER ON SPECIAL DUTY, POLICY PLANNING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME, ORF AND RESEARCH, MEA Tanoubi Ngangom Bijay Selvaraj ASSOCIATE FELLOW , ORF DEPUTY SECRETARY, POLICY PLANNING AND RESEARCH,MEA Oceans had an important place in Indian thinking since pre-Vedic times. Thousands of years ago, the Indus Valley Kriti Shah Gayathri Iyer Civilisation as well as Indian peninsula had maritime JUNIOR FELLOW, ORF RESEARCH ASSISTANT, ORF “trade. Oceans and Varuna – the Lord of all Waters – find Meghna Bal a prominent place in the world’s oldest books— the Vedas. JUNIOR FELLOW, ORF —Shri Narendra Modi, HON. PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA ” Outcome Statement World in flux: India’s choices may help manage disruptions ANAGING Disruptive the party-state, and utilisation of Transitions was the markets to maximise state pow- Mtheme this year at the er and legitimacy with disregard Raisina Dialogue, and while for corporate independence form more than a few disruptions the essence of “capitalism with were discussed over the past Chinese characteristics.” week, India’s Foreign Secretary For some time now, China has S. Jaishankar articulated four key attempted to leverage this model ones: the rise of China; the cur- to script a relationship of depen- rent churning in United States dency with smaller nations, while global posture and Asia strategy; it has used coercive economics kets for nearly three decades. “non-market” economics; and with larger ones. 2017 was testa- Beijing’s opaque and distorted terrorism from governed spaces. ment to this new normal: Across “For some time now, China whole-of-government approach While India’s top diplomat ex- Asia, Africa, Latin America and to market power will likely have hibited customary refrain, Gener- even in parts of Europe, smaller has attempted to leverage this ripple effects as China’s econo- al David Petraeus was more can- economies are now straddled my makes its way towards near- did in his assessment about the with high levels of debt payable model to script a relationship ly US $20 trillion by 2030. Along last two trends, “let’s be clear to Beijing’s state-owned enter- the way, this transition will un- who we’re talking about: China.” prises. Countries like the United of dependency with smaller doubtedly influence the econom- India’s Foreign Secretary ar- States, Germany and Japan, on ic choices of smaller states that ticulated four key ones [disrup- the other hand, must now con- nations, while it has used coercive are heavily dependent on Beijing, tions]: the rise of China; the cur- tend with China’s targeted and with destabilising consequences rent churning in United States state-led or promoted invest- economics with larger ones.” for the world economy. global posture and Asia strategy; ments in sensitive high technol- Second, terrorism emanating “non-market” economics; and ogy sectors. from and protected by governed terrorism from governed spaces. The advent of non-market spaces will imperil global peace First, the normalisation of economics and the rise of the and security. To some extent, state capitalism and the rise of Beijing Consensus may mark the conventional military power non-market economies threaten end of a golden age of entrepre- and diplomacy can address the to upend traditional understand- neurship, and the free flow of threats originating from ungov- ings of economic relations. Com- ideas and technology which flour- erned spaces. When states use plete control over industry by ished under transparent free mar- 8 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 9 terrorism as an instrument of state policy, especially of the most unstable regions in the world. under a nuclear umbrella or the protection of sophisti- Without dedicated and targeted policing mea- cated firepower, a comprehensive approach towards sures, which Beijing is reluctant to undertake, such regional and global security becomes arduous. projects will ultimately make it easier for terrorists When states use terrorism as an instrument of and other criminal groups to expand their outreach, state policy, especially under a nuclear umbrella or find new avenues for rent-seeking, create insidious the protection of sophisticated firepower, a compre- partnerships and recruit additional members. China’s hensive approach towards regional and global securi- subjugation of morality for petty self-serving geopolit- ty becomes arduous. ical gain will create a new — conceivably malicious — Again, the fact that China seeks to curry favour dynamic in the fight against radicalisation and terror. with such states — as it has with Pakistan —and In these trying and chaotic times, perhaps Israeli intends to build parochial relationships with these Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement at actors significantly muddies the waters. More im- the Raisina Dialogue that states must choose be- portantly, China believes that through some complex tween hard power and soft power was more pro- political formulation, it