CONFERENCE REPORT 2018

MANAGING DISRUPTIVE TRANSITIONS IDEAS, INSTITUTIONS & IDIOMS

CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 1 MANAGING DISRUPTIVE TRANSITIONS IDEAS, INSTITUTIONS & IDIOMS

16, 17 & 18 JANUARY 2018 | NEW DELHI

CONFERENCE REPORT 2018

Published by Observer Research Foundation 2018 © All Rights Reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, altered, printed, copied or transmitted in any form — physical or digital — without prior permission in writing from the publisher.

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Outcome Statement 07 World in flux: India’s choices may help manage disruptions 08 Inaugural Address: Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel 12 Raisina: Dialogues from Facebook 16 Agenda 20 Navigating the Chrome Age: Jobs, Growth and Public Policy 32 Constrained Capital: Paving the Path for Infrastructure Investments in India and Other Emerging Economies 35 In the Mind of the Bear: Russia’s Next Geopolitical Manoeuvre 38 HE 2018 iteration of the Raisina Dialogue – Managing Disruptive Transitions: Ideas, Institutions & Idioms Women in Foreign and Security Policy 41 – explored today’s dynamic, disruptive times, when old partnerships are fracturing, new partnerships The Terror State: Innovative Solutions to New Threats 44 are conditional and the notions of power and sovereignty are being dramatically altered. The five pillars T Ministerial Address: Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs, India 47 on which the third edition of the Dialogue rested are: New Ethics For A New Liberalism; The Nation State And Other States; Robotics, Regulation and Regime Change; Public Goods, Private Provision; and Smart Policy, Politics and Gender 51 Cities, Smart Phones, Smart Democracy. Innovation and Creation: Geoeconomics In the Knowledge Age 54 The Killer Bytes: Countering Violent Extremism 57 The 2018 conference had an expansive scope that touched over 50 different themes, which had drawn Strat-Con: Emerging Security Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific 60 more than 500 speakers and delegates from 86 countries. This diverse delegate body spurred public interest Giving India a Strategic Edge: Production, Innovation & Technology Partnerships 63 with a record registration of 1,800 participants. Over 40 percent of the delegates were women, showing a concerted effort at gender parity. In Conversation: M.J. Akbar & Zalmay Khalilzad 66 The End of the Liberal Order: The Beginning of the Asian Century? 68 The dialogue is conceptualised to be the foremost global ideation arena located in the emerging world. It Framing the Health Agenda for the G20 70 is India’s contribution to the efforts that will discover solutions, identify opportunities and provide stability to Towards EU 2.0: Seeking Leadership in a New World Order 73 a century that has witnessed a tumultuous two decades. This platform endeavours to offer a blueprint for a new global order incubated in the Eastern Hemisphere; for a paradigm of global development led by the Global The Rise of City-States: Democracy, Security, and Foreign Policy 76 South; and for a responsive post-modern social order lent credence by the wisdom of an ancient culture. Shaping a New Ethos: The Role of Emerging Powers in the G20 79 Towards a New Framework for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific 82 Fragile World: Preventing a Scorched Earth 85 From Cold War to Hot Peace 88 Nuclear Unpredictability: Managing the Global Nuclear Framework 91 Contested Connectivity: Economic Tracks – Political Cargo? 94 The Afghan Poser 97 Ministerial Address: Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defence, Indonesia 99 Ministerial Address: Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh 103 Towards a Bay of Bengal Community: Development, Growth and Security 107 ORGANISING PARTNERS Digital Money: Innovating with India for the World 110 From Multilaterals to Multinationals: Provision of Global Public Goods 112 Alignment, Arrangement Or Alliance? Debating The Future of the Indo-Pacific 115 Fragile World: Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Challenges in 2018 118 Conflict Rights and the Machine 121 A Disruptive World: Solutions for Tomorrow 125 Reimagining the Commonwealth for the 21st Century 128 Bots of War: Regulations and Safeguards for Cyber Security 131 HOSTS

S. Jaishankar Sunjoy Joshi FOREIGN SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF CHAIRMAN, ORF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

Samir Saran Gaddam Dharmendra PRESIDENT, ORF JOINT SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

TEAM RAISINA

Pushan Das Col. Naveen Nijhawan PROGRAMME COORDINATOR, OFFICER ON SPECIAL DUTY, POLICY PLANNING GLOBAL GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME, ORF AND RESEARCH, MEA

Tanoubi Ngangom Bijay Selvaraj ASSOCIATE FELLOW , ORF DEPUTY SECRETARY, POLICY PLANNING AND RESEARCH,MEA Oceans had an important place in Indian thinking since pre-Vedic times. Thousands of years ago, the Indus Valley Kriti Shah Gayathri Iyer Civilisation as well as Indian peninsula had maritime JUNIOR FELLOW, ORF RESEARCH ASSISTANT, ORF “trade. Oceans and Varuna – the Lord of all Waters – find Meghna Bal a prominent place in the world’s oldest books— the Vedas. JUNIOR FELLOW, ORF —Shri Narendra Modi, HON. PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA ” Outcome Statement World in flux: India’s choices may help manage disruptions

ANAGING Disruptive the party-state, and utilisation of Transitions was the markets to maximise state pow- Mtheme this year at the er and legitimacy with disregard Raisina Dialogue, and while for corporate independence form more than a few disruptions the essence of “capitalism with were discussed over the past Chinese characteristics.” week, India’s Foreign Secretary For some time now, China has S. Jaishankar articulated four key attempted to leverage this model ones: the rise of China; the cur- to script a relationship of depen- rent churning in United States dency with smaller nations, while global posture and Asia strategy; it has used coercive economics kets for nearly three decades. “non-market” economics; and with larger ones. 2017 was testa- Beijing’s opaque and distorted terrorism from governed spaces. ment to this new normal: Across “For some time now, China whole-of-government approach While India’s top diplomat ex- Asia, Africa, Latin America and to market power will likely have hibited customary refrain, Gener- even in parts of Europe, smaller has attempted to leverage this ripple effects as China’s econo- al David Petraeus was more can- economies are now straddled my makes its way towards near- did in his assessment about the with high levels of debt payable model to script a relationship ly US $20 trillion by 2030. Along last two trends, “let’s be clear to Beijing’s state-owned enter- the way, this transition will un- who we’re talking about: China.” prises. Countries like the United of dependency with smaller doubtedly influence the econom- India’s Foreign Secretary ar- States, Germany and Japan, on ic choices of smaller states that ticulated four key ones [disrup- the other hand, must now con- nations, while it has used coercive are heavily dependent on Beijing, tions]: the rise of China; the cur- tend with China’s targeted and with destabilising consequences rent churning in United States state-led or promoted invest- economics with larger ones.” for the world economy. global posture and Asia strategy; ments in sensitive high technol- Second, terrorism emanating “non-market” economics; and ogy sectors. from and protected by governed terrorism from governed spaces. The advent of non-market spaces will imperil global peace First, the normalisation of economics and the rise of the and security. To some extent, state capitalism and the rise of Beijing Consensus may mark the conventional military power non-market economies threaten end of a golden age of entrepre- and diplomacy can address the to upend traditional understand- neurship, and the free flow of threats originating from ungov- ings of economic relations. Com- ideas and technology which flour- erned spaces. When states use plete control over industry by ished under transparent free mar-

8 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 9 terrorism as an instrument of state policy, especially of the most unstable regions in the world. under a nuclear umbrella or the protection of sophisti- Without dedicated and targeted policing mea- cated firepower, a comprehensive approach towards sures, which Beijing is reluctant to undertake, such regional and global security becomes arduous. projects will ultimately make it easier for terrorists When states use terrorism as an instrument of and other criminal groups to expand their outreach, state policy, especially under a nuclear umbrella or find new avenues for rent-seeking, create insidious the protection of sophisticated firepower, a compre- partnerships and recruit additional members. China’s hensive approach towards regional and global securi- subjugation of morality for petty self-serving geopolit- ty becomes arduous. ical gain will create a new — conceivably malicious — Again, the fact that China seeks to curry favour dynamic in the fight against radicalisation and terror. with such states — as it has with Pakistan —and In these trying and chaotic times, perhaps Israeli intends to build parochial relationships with these Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement at actors significantly muddies the waters. More im- the Raisina Dialogue that states must choose be- portantly, China believes that through some complex tween hard power and soft power was more pro- political formulation, it will be able to strike a deal phetic than intended. While Netanyahu was clear in with non-state groups. In fact, where responsible his support for the former, many states around the powers see adversity and risk, China sees an oppor- world will struggle to find a suitable balance between tunity — its connectivity projects pass through some the two. At the same time, countries will have to de-

fend another aspect of power that the Prime Minister form the lynchpin of this transition. identified — one that binds India and Israel to each This brings us to what is perhaps the most pre- other and their strongest partners: democratic values. scient observation the Foreign Secretary articulated: China’s subjugation of morality for petty self-serv- that one part of the answer to many of these disrup- ing geopolitical gain will create a new — conceivably tions lies with India. A vibrant democracy, a flourish- malicious — dynamic in the fight against radicalisa- ing multicultural society, a rapidly growing economy tion and terror. and increasingly confident on the global high table, The political and cultural arrangements states and the choices India will make implicate the future of our communities arrive at will be heavily implicated by world. The remaining answers will be found in the the one major transition the Foreign Secretary identi- partnerships it choses, the success of its economic fied: that a rule based order is no longer limited to the journey and the narrative it ultimately frames around developed world. The shifting balance of power, from its rise. the Atlantic system to the Indo-Pacific, will determine Indeed, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl the future of the 21st century. “The old order is ex- Bildt’s tweet perfectly sums up the ethos of the Rai- pressing its limitations through both policy and pos- sina Dialogue, organised by the Ministry of External ture,” said External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Affairs and Observer Research Foundation: “Bringing capturing the essence of this evolution. “The new or- the debates of the world to India — and the perspec- der, however, is far from being clear,” she cautioned. tives of India to the world.” The conversations that The Indo-Pacific will be ground zero for the eco- take place at this Dialogue play an important role in nomic, political and cultural disruptions that are shap- shaping India’s narrative and, as the Foreign Secre- ing a new world order and will determine if it will be tary rightly believes, will ultimately complete the an- defined by democracy or autocracy. By foreign policy swer to the many predicaments that afflict the world. design and inadvertent geopolitical trends, India will –Samir Saran

10 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 11 Inaugural Address: Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel

amaste. Prime Min- together. ister Modi, my dear I was thinking about the jour- friend, Israel’s dear ney that we made yesterday in friend, thank you on that magnificent ceremony in behalf of the people the President’s house and I was Nof Israel for the exceptional wel- thinking that 75 years ago our There’s soft power. There’s hard power. I like soft ment, an understanding of the main techniques of come that you’re giving us and people were like a wind-tossed power. Hard power is often better. What does it technology that are important for the future, also for the opportunity to address this leaf. A third of our people were mean? What does it mean to have power? Well, the civilian future. forum with the distinguished destroyed in heaps of ashes, and first prerequisite s military power. You need F35s, you And yet, we have seen other societies that have guests that are here from so yet there I was standing repre- need submarines, you need interceptors, you need had educated people, highly educated people, ex- many nations, from India and senting the Jewish people in the cyber, you need intelligence. In the case of Israel you traordinary mathematicians, physicists, metallurgists, from Israel. Thank you for this un- great nation of India, one of the need a lot of intelligence to compensate for our size. that didn’t achieve economic power. In fact, they col- believably moving visit and thank great powers on earth. What led There’s one thing that characterizes all the things that lapsed. I’m talking about the Former Soviet Union. you for the opportunity also to to this transformation? I just mentioned. They cost money, a lot of money, But if you took, in Soviet times, if you took one of address the challenges that face It was our understanding of and as time goes by, they cost more and more mon- those mathematicians and speared him away, or her, the future and how together we the principal lesson of Jewish ey. So defense – the prerequisite of security, and se- to California, to Silicon Valley, the would be producing can work to achieve prosperity, history and also a simple lesson curity always comes first – defense costs a great deal value within two weeks, because the requirement, security and peace. in our turbulent region, and it is of money, as does education, as does health, as does the necessary requirement for the development of I want to tell you first how we this: the weak don’t survive. The infrastructure, all the requirements that our people technology, innovation, ingenuity, the necessary re- in Israel overcame our challenge. strong survive. You make peace justly deserve once we provide security. quirement are free markets or freer markets. Technol- We’re in a tiny people, live in a with the strong. You make alli- Where does the money come from? It comes ogy and value added is produced by firms. Firms pro- small country, somewhat small- ances with the strong. You’re from the second source of power. That is, economic duce technology. They perfect it, they multiply it, the er than India, a lot smaller than able to maintain peace by being power. I view the requirements of providing, of se- re-invent. Firms are critical, and therefore the technol- India, no natural resources, no strong, and therefore the first re- curity our future as dependent on three sources of ogy, the policy that produces growth and gives you great rivers. Well, the Jordan is quirement of Israel from the time power – military power; now economic power. How competitive advantage is the economic policy that a great river, but it’s a stream, it of our first Prime Minister David do you get economic power? Surely you need edu- makes it possible for firms to do business. It’s called trickles. And yet we’ve become Ben-Gurion was to achieve the cation. Prime Minister Modi and I were talking about being business-friendly. I think a force to contend with minimal strength that is required how we educate our youth. In the case of Israel, I have to say that I was absolutely astounded on the world scene, and I would to assure our existence. Now, there’s one big education machine. It’s called the Is- when I learned yesterday that Prime Minister Modi like to describe to you the pro- what is the source of strength? raeli Defense Force, and everyone comes in and we has moved India on the scale of the ease of doing cess that we went through and Various questions arise about give training, we give technology, we give an assess- business 42 places in three years. Prime Minister then discuss what we could do what is the nature of power?

12 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 13 Modi understands exactly what I’m talking about. In never-ending race. The exponential growth that you other words, if you want to have economic power, talked about is achieved today by the confluence of are helping change Africa, I was asked: What is the of India, as I just did in Agra, I saw the sympathy and you must reduce taxes, simplify taxes, and you must Big Data, connectivity and artificial intelligence. The secret of Israel? You know, we create a lot of prob- friendship of people. Somebody said to me: We are cut bureaucracy. Government can facilitate economic countries that will seize the future are those that will lems in Africa, he said, and you come and you create so happy that you are friends with our Prime Minister growth. Government can block economic growth. In innovate along these lines. The future belongs to solutions with us. What is your secret? You’re such a and that he’s friends with you. We are friends with our cases, Israel and India, we don’t have any bureau- those who innovate. Those who innovate will inno- small country. How do you do this? And I said: Look, you! We are friends with Israel. It’s a natural friend- cracy to contend with. You know that. So a main job vate in freer market terms. And this is what we all we are a special people. We are like a tree that has ship and natural partnership of democratic and free of the leaders of both India and Israel is to reduce this must do. We’re doing it. India is doing it. deep roots in our ancient soil, our ancient tradition, peoples. bureaucracy, to cut it, as I call it, with a machete, with Now, having established our military power and and yet we throw up leaves to the heavens. We keep Our way of life is being challenged. Most notably, an axe, so that the firms can go on with their busi- our economic power, we are now developing our searching, keep inquiring, keep looking for new ways. the quest for modernity, the quest for innovation is ness of doing business. This gives strength. We’ve third power, and the third power is political power. By The branches go up to the sky and the roots are deep being challenged by radical Islam and its terrorist off- done this in Israel. We’ve transformed an economy political power I mean the ability to make political alli- in the earth. I believe that this is the secret of Israel. shoots from a variety of corners, and this can upset that was very centralized and very bureaucratized into ances and relationships with many other countries. in I also believe it’s the secret of India. It’s exactly the the international system. I think that one of the ways a free market economy that allows the technological the last year alone I visited six continents – obviously same thing – powerful traditions, ancient cultures of to overcome such a challenge is to strengthen the genius of our people and our young people to flower. Asia, Africa, Europe, Africa I visited three times in 18 which we are so deeply proud, and yet these inquir- relationship between our two great democracies. The This is what starts the startups. Startups are made months, South America and of course North America ing minds that reach out to the sky, reach out for new alliance of democracies I think is important to secure by young people, thousands of them. The minute we and Australia, so all six. And we have a growing num- solutions to the problems all the time, and I think this our common future. I believe that the possibilities are created this climate, this climate of creativity and en- ber of countries with whom we have trade relations, characterizes our two peoples. endless. We have discussed in this visit how we can trepreneurship, the talents break forth. I believe that cultural relations, technological relations, security re- But I believe too that there’s one thing else that strengthen our two nations in the civilian areas, in the this second power is critical to the first. I believe that lations. This is very important for us in order to broad- binds us together and I think perhaps it is the most im- security areas, in every area. It is something l look the growth of military power and military influence is en our position in the world, in order to have the kind portant of all. We have a special relationship. Among forward to do. dependent ultimately on economic power, and eco- of relations that ultimately secure your future. Military the many countries, we have a special relationship I want to thank you again for giving me this oppor- nomic power facilitates also all the elements of life power. Economic power. Political power. to democracies. India is the world’s most populous tunity to bring India to Israel and Israel to India. Your that we need. But there is I believe a fourth power, and the democracy. It is a place that shows that humanity can historic visit broke ground. You are the first leader of We have achieved that transition to a more liberal fourth power is the power of our values, of our tradi- be governed with freedom, that we can secure the India to come to Israel in 3’000 years. Let us hope it economy and we are absolutely committed to con- tions. I was asked by African leaders, I was asked in a rights of people, those things that make life worth- will not take long for your next visit. I know that. But I tinuing on this path because we know we are in a symposium in the UN about Israeli technologies that while – the ability to think as we want, speak as we want to tell you how delighted we are in Israel. I want want, believe what we want in a society that is plural- to tell you that we believe in India, as you believe istic, diverse and free. This is what India is about. This in Israel. Good luck to India. Good luck to Israel, and is what Israel is about. may G-d bless the Indian-Israel alliance.” So the fourth thing that binds us together is our values, and the most important value is the value of democracy. Well, I believe that this is not merely a “The quest for modernity, passing thing. We’re now moving from a unipolar road to a multipolar road. We have an exceptional re- the quest for innovation is lationship with a democracy called the United States of America. We have exceptional relationship with a being challenged by radical democracy called Canada and other countries. the reason I mention the importance of democracies is Islam and its terrorist because even though we have relations with most countries in the world, if we are to live in a world that offshoots from a variety of protects international norms – something that you, Prime Minister Modi, talk about all the time – then corners, and this can upset we must have of course the ability to protect those norms, and democracies bind to each other, connect the international system.” to each other in natural ways. We are, I think, natu- rally sympathetic to India. When I walk in the streets

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16 January, 2018

In Conversation: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel with Samir Saran, Vice-President, Observer Research Foundation

In Conversation: Sujoy Bose, Chief Executive Officer, National Investment and Infrastructure Fund with Kabir Taneja, Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation RAISINA: DIALOGUES FROM FACEBOOK 17 January, 2018

In Conversation: Katie Harbath, Director, Global Policy Programs, Facebook with Samir Saran, Vice- President, Observer Research Foundation

In Conversation: General Bipin Rawat, Chief of Army Staff, India with Indrani Bagchi, Diplomatic Editor, Times of India

In Conversation: Sushma Swaraj, External Affairs Minister, India with Ankhi Das, Director of Public Policy (India, South & Central Asia), Facebook

ISIS: The End of an Ideology?

Fauzia Abdi Ali, President of WIIS Kenya and Chair, Sisters without Borders General Chris Deverell, Joint Forces Commander, United Kingdom Brian Fishman, Counterterrorism Public Policy Manager, Facebook Kanchan Gupta, Commissioning Editor & Commentator, ABP News (moderator)

Mobilising Communities

Smriti Irani, Minister for Information and Broadcasting, India

16 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 17 Saad Mohseni, Chairman, MOBY Group Shivnath Thukral, Public Policy Director (India and South Asia), Facebook (moderator) Yalda Hakim, Host, BBC World News In Conversation: Abul Hassan Mahmood, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh with Shivnath Ankhi Das, Director of Public Policy (India, South & Central Asia), Facebook (moderator) Thukral, Public Policy Director (India and South Asia), Facebook In Conversation: Suresh Prabhu, Minister for Commerce & Industry, India with Shivnath Thukral, In Conversation: Admiral Harry Harris, Jr., Commander, U.S. Pacific Command with Samir Saran, Public Policy Director (India and South Asia), Facebook Vice-President, Observer Research Foundation In Conversation: Nadia Schadlow, Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Strategy, Rethinking the Commonwealth, post Brexit U.S. National Security Council, with C. Rajamohan, Director, Carnegie India Shashi Tharoor, Member of Parliament and Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Gender & Tech: Empowerment & Misogyny Committee on External Affairs, India Danielle Kayembe, Founder, GreyFire Impact Michael Fullilove, Executive Director, Lowy Institute Pascale Fung, Professor, Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Hong Kong Geoffrey van Orden, Member of the European Parliament for the East of England University of Science and Technology Dhruva Jaishankar, Fellow, Brookings India (moderator) Bedavyasa Mohanty, Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (moderator) Right to Offend On Afghanistan Priyank Mathur, Founder, Mythos Labs, USA Amrullah Saleh, Former Director, National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan Radhika Vaz, Writer & Comedian Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation Vani Tripathi, Board member, CBFC Maya Mirchandani, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (moderator) Maya Mirchandani, Journalist & Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation

18 January, 2018

Nuclear Irrationality: Pakistan, North Korea & Beyond

Wendy Ruth Sherman, Senior Counselor, Albright Stonebridge Group Shen Dingli, Professor, Fudan University Rakesh Sood, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (moderator)

In Conversation: Hamid Karzai, Former President, Afghanistan with Yalda Hakim, Host, BBC World News

Digital Money: New Pathways for Growth

Amitabh Kant, CEO, NITI Aayog Tidhar Wald, Head of Government Relations & Public Policy, Better Than Cash Alliance Joseph Lubin, Co-Founder, Ethereum and Founder, ConsenSys

18 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 19 DAY 1 – 16 JANUARY, 2018 AGENDA Jehangir Raisina Young Fellows Dinner - Regulating Big Tech in a Post-Truth World Peter Swire, Professor of Law and Ethics, Scheller College of Business, Georgia Institute of Technology Roshanara Constrained Capital: Paving the Path for Infrastructure Investments in India and Other Emerging Economies (By Invitation) 21:30 - 22:00 DAY 1 – 16 JANUARY, 2018 22:00 - 23:00 CONVERSATIONS OVER KAHWA Mumtaz 18:30 - 19:30 RAISINA INAUGURAL In the Mind of the Bear: Russia’s Next Geopolitical Maneuver Durbar Alexander Gabuev, Senior Fellow and the Chair of the Russia in the Asia- Pacific Program, Carnegie Moscow Center Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel Thomas Gomart, Director, IFRI (French Institute of International Relations) Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India Heather Hurlburt, Director, New Models of Policy Change, New America Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs, India Timofei Bordachev, Director, Centre for Comprehensive European and International Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics Samir Saran, Vice President, Observer Research Foundation (moderator) Tatiana Seliverstova, Deputy Chairman, Russian Union of Youth Nandan Unnikrishnan, Vice President & Senior Fellow, Observer Research 19:30 - 20:00 Foundation (moderator) 20:00 - 21:30 INAUGURAL DINNERS Roshanara Rani Bagh Women in Foreign and Security Policy Welcome Dinner (in lawns) Houda Cherif, President, Connecting Group Tunisia Shah Jehan Rachel Rizzo, Research Associate, Transatlantic Security Program, Center for a New Foreign Secretary’s Dinner (By Invitation) American Security S. Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary, India Bi-Khim Hsiao, Senior Adviser, The Prospect Foundation, Chinese Taipei Konstantin Kosachev, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, Li Li, Deputy Director, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania Institute, CICIR Russia Lucy Shule, Lecturer and Director of Studies, National Defence College, Tanzania Hans Dahlgren, State Secretary for International and EU Affairs to Prime Minister, Sweden Riina Kaljurand, Research Fellow, International Centre for Defence and Security Mumtaz Ritika Passi, Project Editor & Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (moderator) Navigating the Chrome Age: Jobs, Growth and Public Policy (Dinner Session) Jayant Sinha, Minister of State for Civil Aviation, India Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa to the G20 Yao Zhang, Founder & CEO, Roboterra Joseph Lubin, Co-Founder, Ethereum and Founder, ConsenSys Manish Sabharwal, Co-Founder & Executive Chairman, TeamLease Stavros N. Yiannouka, Chief Executive Officer, World Innovation Summit for Education (moderator)

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BREAKFAST – 07.30 onwards in Rani Bagh (lawns) Shah Jehan Shah Jehan Innovation and Creation: Geo-economics in the Knowledge Age (Lunch Session) 09:15 - 10:30 The Terror State: Innovative Solutions to New Threats Suresh Prabhu, Minister of Commerce and Industry, India General Bipin Rawat, Chief of Army Staff, India Kenneth Juster, U.S. Ambassador to India General Chris Deverell, Joint Forces Commander, U.K. Esther Ndichu, Vice President of Public Affairs, UPS (Indian Subcontinent, Middle East Husain Haqqani, Senior Fellow and Director for South and Central Asia, and Africa) Hudson Institute Saad Mohseni, Chairman and CEO, Moby Group Vyacheslav Nikonov, Member of the State Duma, Russia Kavita Gupta, Founding Managing Partner, ConsenSys Ventures Major General (Retd.) Amos Gilead, Executive Director, Institute for Policy and Patrick Kilbride, Vice President (IIP), Global Innovation Policy Center, U.S. Chamber of Strategy (IPS), Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya Commerce (moderator) Virginia Comolli, Senior Fellow for Security & Development, The International Mumtaz Institute for Strategic Studies (moderator) The Killer Bytes: Countering Violent Extremism (Lunch Session) 10:30 - 11:00 Ivo Veenkamp, Deputy Executive Director, Hedayah Centre THE RAISINA OPENER Brian Fishman, Counterterrorism Policy Manager, Facebook Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President, Emirates Policy Centre Durbar Alexander Klimburg, Director, The Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace 11:00 - 11:30 Plenary Address by Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs, India Fauziya Abdi Ali, President of WIIS Kenya and Chair, Sisters Without Borders Introduction by Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation Shiv Sahai, Joint Secretary, National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), India (Moderator) 11:30 - 12:00 IN CONVERSATION M.J. Akbar, Minister of State External Affairs, India with Zalmay Khalilzad, Former Jenhangir Ambassador of the United States to the United Nations and Counsellor, Center for Raisina Young Fellows: Interaction with Premdut Koonjoo, Minister of Ocean Strategic and International Studies Economy, Marine Resources, Fisheries and Shipping, Republic of Mauritius 12:00 - 12:30 TEA/COFFEE BREAK Roshanara Durbar Capital Convergence: Private Sector Finance & Partnerships that can Unlock 12:30 - 13:30 Policy, Politics and Gender Indo-Pacific Connectivity (Lunch Session) Smriti Irani, Minister for Textiles and Information and Broadcasting, India Roshanara Robin Gorna, Global Co-Lead, SheDecides 15:00 - 16:00 IN CONVERSATION – Strat-Con: The Emerging Security Dynamics in the Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa to the G20 Indo-Pacific Wendy Ruth Sherman, Senior Counselor, Albright Stonebridge Group Christopher Pyne, Minister for Defence Industry, Australia Pascale Fung, Professor, Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Hong Maliki Osman, Senior Minister of State for Defence and Foreign Affairs, Singapore Kong University of Science and Technology Ram Madhav, National General Secretary, BJP and Director, India Foundation Ankhi Das, Director of Public Policy (India, South & Central Asia), Facebook Nadia Schadlow, Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Strategy, (moderator) U.S. National Security Council 13:30 - 15:00 LUNCH C. Raja Mohan, Director, Carnegie India (moderator) Rani Bagh 16.00–16.15 Tea/Coffee Break For general participants and delegates (lawns)

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Roshanara Durbar 16:15–17:15 Giving India a Strategic Edge: Production, Innovation & Technology Partnerships Towards EU 2.0: Seeking Leadership in a New World Order Ajay Kumar, Secretary, Department of Defence Production, India Marek Magierowski, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Poland Richard Verma, Vice Chairman, The Asia Group Pedro Serrano, Deputy Secretary General, European External Action Service Jeffrey Colman, Deputy Director, Policy and Government Affairs, AIPAC Charles Powell, Director, Elcano Royal Institute Cara Abercrombie, Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minister, Sweden Vice Admiral Bernard J McCullough (USN, Retd), Vice President - International Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs, Chairman of the Business Development, Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy and Research Director of the Ashok Malik, Press Secretary to the President of India (moderator) Valdai International Discussion Club Geoffrey Van Orden, Member of the European Parliament for the East of England Durbar Serena A. Chaudhry, TV News Producer, Reuters (moderator) 17:15-18:15 The End of the Liberal Order: The Beginning of the Asian Century? 19:45 – 20:15 IN CONVERSATION - The Rise of City-States: Democracy, Security and Foreign Stephen Harper, Former Prime Minister, Canada Policy James Carafano, Vice President, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, The Heritage Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Housing and Urban Foundation Affairs, India Igor Morgulov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Daniel Andrews, Premier of Victoria, Australia Ina Lepel, Director-General on Asia and the Pacific, Federal Foreign Office, Germany Theresa Fallon, Director, Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies Nisha Desai Biswal, President, USIBC (moderator) Shashi Tharoor, Member of Parliament and Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing 20:15 – 20:30 Committee on External Affairs, India (moderator) 20:30 – 22:00 DINNER Roshanara Rani Bagh Framing the Health Agenda for the G20 For general participants and delegates (lawns) Andreas Schaal, Director, OECD Global Relations and OECD G20 Sous Sherpa Shah Jehan Helen Rees, Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute F. Gray Handley, Associate Director, International Research Affairs, National Shaping a New Ethos of Geo-politics and Geo-economics: The Role of Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Emerging Powers in G20, BRICS and IBSA (Dinner Session) Elena Dmitrieva, Director of Russian NGO Health and Development Foundation Anil Sooklal, Deputy Director General of the Department of International Relations Wulf Reiners, Head, Managing Global Governance Programme, German and Cooperation, South Africa Development Institute Gustavo Martinez, Managing Director, Consejo Argentino Shamika Ravi, Senior Fellow, Brookings India (moderator) para las Relaciones Internacionales 18:15-18:30 Tea/Coffee Break Dawisson Lopes, Professor of International and Comparative Politics, The Federal Durbar University of Minas Gerais Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa to the G20 18:30-19:45 Introductory Address: India and Europe Akshay Mathur, Director, Research and Analysis, Gateway House (moderator) Ruchi Ghanashyam, Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs, India

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Mumtaz Roshanara Towards a New Framework for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific(Dinner Session) Fragile World: From Cold War to Hot Peace Kentaro Sonoura, Advisor to the Prime Minister (National Security), Japan Matthew Rojansky, Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Serge Segura, Ambassador for the Oceans, France Center for Scholars Shafiah Fifi Muhibat, Head of Department of International Relations, Julie B. Sheetz, Global Force Planner, Office of the Secretary of Defense, United States Centre for Strategic and International Studies Elena Lazarou, Senior Policy Analyst, European Parliamentary Research Service Tsutomu Kikuchi, Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University Marian Vidaurri, Section Chief, Political Analysis, Organization of American States Ram Madhav, National General Secretary, BJP and Director, India Foundation Jeffrey Smith, Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation Kelly Magsamen, Vice President, National Security and International Policy, Asle Toje, Director of Research, Nobel Peace Prize Research and Information, The Centre for American Progress Norwegian Nobel Institute (moderator) Smita Prakash, Editor, ANI News (moderator) Jehangir Raisina Young Fellows: Book Discussion with Alyssa Ayres, Author of “Our Time has Come: How India is Making its Place in the World” Discussants: S. Paul Kapur, Professor, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Harsh Pant, Distinguished Fellow and Head, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation Roshanara Serving Stability in the Indo-Pacific (By Invitation) 22:00 - 22:30 22:30 - 23:30 CONVERSATIONS OVER KAHWA Mumtaz Fragile World: Preventing a Scorched Earth Geraldine Ang, Policy Analyst, OECD Sean Kidney, CEO, Climate Bonds Initiative Sanjeev Sanyal, Principal Economic Advisor, Ministry of Finance, India Cleo Paskal, Associate Fellow in the Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham House Sumant Sinha, CEO, ReNew Power Shikha Bhasin, Programme Lead- Technology, Trade and Finance, Council on Energy, Environment & Water (moderator)

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BREAKFAST – 07.30 onwards in Rani Bagh (lawns) Roshanara Shah Jehan 12:30 - 13:30 Roundtable on Indian Education Ecosystem (By Invitation) 09:15 - 10:15 Nuclear Unpredictability: Managing the Global Nuclear Framework 13:30 - 15:00 LUNCH Feodor Voytolovsky, Director, Primakov National Research Institute of World Rani Bagh Economy and International Relations For general participants and delegates (lawns) Wendy Ruth Sherman, Senior Counselor, Albright Stonebridge Group Shen Dingli, Professor, Fudan University Shah Jehan Rory Medcalf, Head, National Security College, Australian National University IN CONVERSATION – Towards a Bay of Bengal Community: Development, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Senior Fellow and Head of the Nuclear and Space Growth & Security (Lunch Session) Policy Initiative, Observer Research Foundation Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh Dhruva Jaishankar, Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings India (moderator) Vasantha Senanayake, State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sri Lanka 10:15 - 10:30 Shankar Das Bairagi, Foreign Secretary, Nepal Preeti Saran, Secretary, (East), Ministry of External Affairs, India Durbar Baijayant Panda, Member of Parliament, India (moderator) 10:30 - 11:30 Contested Connectivity: Economic Tracks – Political Cargo? Mumtaz Vijay Keshav Gokhale, Secretary (Economic Relations), Ministry of External Affairs, India Digital Money: Innovating with India for the World (Lunch Session) Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour, Deputy Foreign Minister, Iran Amitabh Kant, CEO, NITI Aayog István Mikola, Minister of State for Security Policy and International Cooperation, Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Founder and Head, Paytm Hungary Porush Singh, India and Division President, South Asia, MasterCard Zalmay Khalilzad, Former Ambassador of the United States to the United Nations Arvind Gupta, Head, Digital India Foundation and Counsellor, Center for Strategic and International Studies Agnieszka Wierzbicka, Expert, Ministry of Digital Affairs, Poland Nisha Biswal, President, USIBC Tidhar Wald, Head of Government Relations & Public Policy, Better Than Cash Michael Fullilove, Executive Director, Lowy Institute (moderator) Alliance (moderator) 11:30 - 12:00 TEA/COFFEE BREAK Jehangir 12:00 - 13:00 The Afghan Poser Raisina Young Fellows: Interaction with Stephen Harper, Former Prime Minister, General (Retd.) V.K. Singh, Minister of State for External Affairs, India Canada Hamid Karzai, Former President, Afghanistan Roshanara Igor Morgulov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation From Multilaterals to Multinationals: Provision of Global Public Goods Yalda Hakim, Host, BBC World News (moderator) (Lunch Session) 13:00 - 13:30 KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Tarek Elabbady, Chief Technology Officer, Microsoft Emerging Markets Digital Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defence, Indonesia Transformation, Microsoft Moderated by Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation Sandhya Venkateswaran, Deputy Director, India, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Hans-Christian Hagman, Chief Analyst and Senior Adviser to the State Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs Mabel Brodrick-Okereke, Founder & CEO, Educational Social Enterprise Sanjeev Bikhchandani, Founder and Executive Vice-Chairman, InfoEdge Isabelle Mégré, Advisor, Program and Content, International Economic Forum of the Americas (moderator)

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Durbar Shah Jehan 15:00 - 16:15 Unchartered Waters: In Search for Order in the Indo-Pacific Re-imagining the Commonwealth for the 21st Century (Dinner Session) Admiral Sunil Lanba, Chief of Naval Staff, India Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh Admiral Harry Harris, Jr., Commander, U.S. Pacific Command Tim Hitchens, Chief Executive, Commonwealth Summit Unit Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, Japan Swapan Dasgupta, Member of Parliament, India Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, Chief of Navy, Australia Premdut Koonjoo, Minister of Ocean Economy, Marine Resources, Fisheries and Dino Patti Djalal, Founder, Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia Shipping, Republic of Mauritius Indrani Bagchi, Diplomatic Editor, The Times of India (moderator) Ngeyi Ruth Kanyongolo, Chancellor, University of Malawi 16:15 - 16:30 TEA/COFFEE BREAK Manoj Ladwa, Founder & CEO, MLS Chase Group (moderator) 16:30 - 17:30 Fragile World: Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Challenges in 2018 Mumtaz David Malone, Rector, United Nations University Bots of War: Regulations and Safeguards for Cybersecurity (Dinner Session) Rohinton Medhora, President, Centre for International Governance Innovation Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minister, Sweden Memduh Karakullukcu, Vice-Chairman and President, Global Relations Forum Kaja Ciglic, Director, Cybersecurity Policy and Strategy, Microsoft Yul Sohn, Director, East Asia Institute Iddo Moed, Cyber Security Coordinator, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel Neelam Deo, Director, Gateway House Seán Paul McGurk, Senior Policy Advisor, Industrial Control Systems Information Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation (moderator) Sharing and Analysis Center 17:30 – 17:45 TEA/COFFEE BREAK Gulshan Rai, National Cyber Security Coordinator, Prime Minister’s Office, India Shashi Tharoor, Member of Parliament and Chairman of the Parliamentary 17:45 - 18:45 Conflicts, Rights and the Machine: Addressing the Evolving Methods of Warfare Standing Committee on External Affairs, India (moderator) Hugo Slim, Head of Policy & Humanitarian Diplomacy, International Committee of the Red Cross Lydia Kostopoulos, Advisor, AI Initiative, The Future Society, Harvard Kennedy School Elsa B. Kania, Adjunct Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, Center for a New American Security Amandeep Singh Gill, Ambassador & Permanent Representative of India to the UN Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, Switzerland (Moderator) 18:45 – 19:00 TEA/COFFEE BREAK 19:00 – 19:45 IN CONVERSATION – A Disruptive World: Solutions for Tomorrow S. Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary, India Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, Secretary-General, Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, France General (Retd.) David H. Petraeus, U.S. Army, Retired Samir Saran, Vice President, Observer Research Foundation (moderator) 19:45 – 20:00 20:00 - 21:30 CONCLUDING DINNERS Rani Bagh For general participants and delegates (lawns)

30 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 31 formation processes experienced Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief by countries will vary significantly. of Staff and Sherpa to the G20, ar- The opportunities that must be gued that new employment mod- leveraged to take advantage of els and relations, including a rise Navigating the inclusive potential of disrup- in informalisation, need to be met tion are unconventional, requiring with new social security frame- the Chrome Age: Jobs, leaders and policy makers to chal- works that link social benefits lenge prevailing notions and policy directly to people rather than to Growth and Public Policy Day 1 frameworks. jobs. She pointed to three key im- As mentioned by Jayant Sinha, peratives for managing vast tech- the vast movement of agricultural nological transformations – skills, workers in India into other sec- new policy frameworks and global tors, primarily the service sector, standards. apid technological innova- ple, just 21 million are in the for- “I think automation, artificial MODERATOR is challenging the prevailing farm While skills and education have tion is fueling enthusiasm mal, private sector and 23 million to factory model. Mr. Sinha argued been central to discussions on the intelligence, big data, are and pessimism simultane- in the public sector. The challenge Stavros N. Yiannouka, CHIEF that countries such as India need future of work and technological very important today for R EXECUTIVE OFFICER, WORLD INNOVATION ously, even as the realities of its facing India is to find ways of pro- SUMMIT FOR EDUCATION to embrace a farm to franchise change, new approaches to skills countries at the bleeding impact on jobs and growth are viding gainful employment for the model if they are to fully benefit development are needed. The uncertain. How soon and to what rest of the population, of which a from their demographic dividends. traditional short-term, job-specif- edge of productivity.” extent artificial intelligence (AI), majority are under the age of 35. PANELLISTS New employment models building ic, vocational training model that —Manish Sabharwal robotics and automation will be The presence of a large infor- Jayant Sinha, MINISTER OF STATE FOR on services, new digital platforms, has been widely embraced, may adopted will vary significantly be- mal sector, a challenge in many CIVIL AVIATION, INDIA and the gig economy present sig- not be suitable for the changing tween and within countries. The developing economies, has ac- Gabriela Ramos, OECD CHIEF OF STAFF nificant employment generating world of work. Gabriela Ramos experience of emerging econo- quired a new dimension in the AND SHERPA TO THE G20 opportunities. In India these op- suggests that an increasing focus mies in the face of technological context of technological transfor- portunities are critical in the face must be on developing ‘soft’ skills Yao Zhang, FOUNDER & CEO, transformations and adoption mation. Informalisation, a funda- of stagnating employment in the over ‘hard’ skills and basic educa- ROBOTERRA may be vastly different from that mental problem for many develop- manufacturing sector tion. However, the means through of advanced economies. ment economists, has been cast Joseph Lubin, CO-FOUNDER, The ability to transform disrup- in a new light in the contemporary ETHEREUM AND FOUNDER, CONSENSYS tion into opportunity will be cen- context of technological transfor- Manish Sabharwal, CO-FOUNDER & tral in determining who will ben- mation. The informal economy in EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, TEAMLEASE efit and who will lose from these India accounts for 91 percent of changes. During a discussion employment, and firms are dom- on Navigating the Chrome Age: inated by micro-enterprises. The Jobs, Growth and Public Policy, small size of firms and informal panellists brought to light a num- ecosystem in India may create an ber of areas where unconvention- opportunity as the digital economy al opportunities may lie. becomes more prominent, allow- Jayant Sinha, India’s Minister ing India to avoid deep structural of Civil Aviation, outlined the ex- transitions that will be required by tent of the employment challenge more formal economies. It is not in the country. He argued that only in emerging and developing providing gainful employment nations where informality is rele- and meeting the expectations of vant, there has also been a rise in India’s vast youth population will non-standard employment in ad- be a core challenge in the face of vanced countries in recent years. automation. Of India’s workforce Two important conclusions of approximately 500 million peo- can be drawn from this. The trans-

32 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 33 Constrained Capital: Paving the Path for Infrastructure Investments in India and Other Emerging Economies Day 1

cademics, analysts and pol- panded its reach to other regions. iticians have long regarded In 2015 alone, China accounted MODERATOR Athe 21st Century as the for 21 Billion dollars of financing Reuben Abraham, IDFC INSTITUTE advent of an age dominated by flows for infrastructure projects the Asian continent. Envisaging in Africa - more than the United PANELLISTS the bounties to be reaped from States, Europe and all internation- its demographic dividend, econo- al financial institutions combined . Rajiv Kumar, VICE-CHAIRMAN, NITI AAYOG mists have forecasted that Asian This apparent generosity, how- to manage these transitions and “A great source of which appropriate skills and edu- economies will be the source ever, has caused concern for a Sujoy Bose, CHAIRMAN, NIIF concern for people and for cation frameworks can be devel- turn disruption into opportunity. of more than half of the world’s number of international and re- oped are likely to vary significantly Conventional approaches to job Donough Foley, SENIOR VICE policymakers is how do we GDP by 2050 . The same econo- gional powers. Fearing the grow- PRESIDENT, MOODY’S between and within countries. In- creation, skill development, and mists caution, however, that this ing geopolitical influence wielded anticipate those changes to dia’s ailing education system and social protection must be reimag- Sanjeev Sanyal, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC Asian century is not preordained by the People’s Republic through ADVISOR, MINISTRY OF FINANCE try to give our people the massive young population create ined and recast to meet new de- and that there are a number of its deft use of economic diploma- Sean Kidney, CEO, CLIMATE BONDS skills and the capacities to unique challenges for upskilling mands. pitfalls that must be avoided to cy, Australia, India, Japan, and the and reskilling. INITIATIVE adapt.” –Terri Chapman achieve the sustainable growth United States have attempted to Yao Zhang, Founder and CEO required to propel the continent create an informal grouping – the Alexander Dynkin, PRESIDENT, IMEMO of RoboTerra, suggested that de- —Gabriela Ramos to a new age of prosperity. Chief Indo-Pacific Alliance – to counter Martin Rama, CHIEF ECONOMIST – spite the challenges presented among the concerns is the lack of China’s increasing influence. SOUTH ASIA, WORLD BANK by new technologies, including viable infrastructure across most In their seeming haste to es- Ila Patniak, PROFESSOR, NIPFP the unpredictability of innovation, of Asia. The Asian Development tablish a counteracting power technological change has typically Tim Shortill, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, Bank estimates that funding of bloc, the leaders of the Indo-Pa- OP TRUST been positive. She further point- $1.5 Trillion annually will be need- cific alliance seem to have over- ed to an unconventional opportu- ed to meet infrastructure needs looked the crucial point that has James Crabtree, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL nity presented by ‘brain drain’, a across developing parts of Asia, catalysed China’s success. The phenomenon that has traditionally to meet growth estimates. geopolitics of Asia currently, and been viewed as a major challenge China, as it becomes a prom- certainly moving into the future, for countries such as India. inent geopolitical actor, has at- are predicated upon geo-eco- While technological change tempted to lead the charge to nomic heft. In order to act as a and its impact on the workforce bridge this infrastructure funding regional and international counter- is a long-standing discussion, the gap. Not only has it spearhead- weight to the PRC, the Indo-Pacif- pace at which these changes are ed ambitious transnational proj- ic alliance will have to increase its happening today is unprecedent- ects such as the Belt and Road economic influence on the Asian ed. This means that new mod- Initiative and the China Pakistan continent. The Quad is at a disad- els and approaches are needed Economic Corridor, it has also ex- vantage here – they do not have

34 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 35 ethereal claim of increased effi- in the Indo-Pacific region and al- ciency. low for private investment to flow Policy makers can attempt to at scale, providing alternatives to incentivise institutional investors nations wary of China’s offers. by dealing with two other major Additionally, Indo-Pacific pol- deterrents. The first thing policy icy makers should also consider makers can do is create a liquid capacity building. While the term market for the equity that a spon- has been used ad nauseam to sor invests into a project. The in- describe weak governance or frastructure sector is largely illiq- structural economic issues in the uid – that is to say that the equity developing world, with regards to stake in a port in Goa cannot be infrastructure it becomes a simple easily bought or sold, without sig- equation. To paraphrase some of nificant due diligence which can Mr. Sujoy Bose’s (CEO of the Na- But we need a whole take anywhere from a month to a tional Infrastructure Investment ecosystem of institutions, year. This is, of course, anathema Fund) remarks during the Raisina large and small, which to institutional investors – these 2018 panel Capital Convergence are able to guide this funds manage money or provide - the problem that international life insurance for hundreds of investors have is finding enough infrastructure into the right I want to focus on foreign abundant sums of public sector to have with infrastructure invest- thousands of people and like to counterparties that can absorb the places where it is needed capital and how much could money to spend as is the case, ments, especially in the develop- have the ability to access signifi- large amounts of capital and ac- and that ecosystem needs seemingly, with China. They can, ing world, is the propensity for come in realistically speaking cant portion of their funds at short tually allocate that capital in proj- to be rebuilt or built. Banks, however, attempt to leverage the governments to adhere to public notice. To address this, policy ects that meet the right criterion. and we are talking about large sizeable amounts of private capital private partnerships. While some makers should encourage the use If the Quad wishes to counteract whether we like it or not, pools of capital. But what that is currently being managed by level of government involvement of a promising financing option China’s economic expansion in will have to be an important is the capacity of the Indian institutional investors within their is always needed for infrastructure such as infrastructure investment Asia, it must find a way to expand part of that. nations. projects in order to gain appropri- economy to absorb them? trusts (InvITs), that has done well the number of counterparties in The business case for infra- ate clearances and address issues in countries such as India, but developing nations that can ab- —Sanjeev Sanyal —Ila Patniak structure projects on the surface is such eminent domain, the aughts has not yet been taken up by the sorb large amounts of capital and solid. Institutional investors need has proved that PPP’s are an inef- mainstream financial communi- disperse them in the right manner. long term, low-risk returns such as ficient financing vehicle. Private in- ty. InvITs, which were discussed those generated from infrastruc- vestments with appropriate public at length during the Raisina 2017 –Aparajit Pandey ture projects. Yet, only 3% of the sector buy in can be more efficient roundtable India’s Infrastructure private capital managed by insti- in most cases than PPP’s. To find Challenges, would allay the con- tutional investors is currently in- a way to overcome this obstacle, cerns felt by institutional investors vested in infrastructure. There are policy influencers and diplomats a number of ancillary issues that will have to find a way to market deter asset managers from invest- private investments in an appeal- ing in large scale projects such as ing manner for all stakeholders railways, roads and ports. These involved. For the public sector, issues will need to be addressed this can be marketed as a low-risk by leaders within the Indo-Pacific proposal as they will not have to in order to direct financing flows commit public funds to infrastruc- towards infrastructure projects in ture projects and are free to di- the developing parts of Asia that vert them towards other areas of China is exerting it’s economic need within their economies. The influence on. The first objection private sector, however, will need that institutional investors tend a more tangible benefit than the

36 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 37 In the Mind of the Bear: Russia’s Next Geopolitical Manoeuvre Day 1

n a constantly changing global er who has been in charge since environment, Russia has reas- the turn of the century and is go- MODERATOR serted itself more than anyone ing to remain in charge at least till Nandan Unnikrishnan, VICE I PRESIDENT & SENIOR FELLOW, OBSERVER could have ever anticipated a cou- 2024. For the global community, RESEARCH FOUNDATION ple of years ago. It has emerged the following term of Vladimir Pu- as a strong geostrategic player in tin is crucial yet unpredictable. In West Asia and Afghanistan and Europe, it is unclear whether Rus- PANELLISTS also has an important role to play sia will opt for reconciliation or a Alexander Gabuev, SENIOR FELLOW mand. This competition has now Russia, especially in the domain in resolving the Korean peninsula hardening of posture. While Asia AND THE CHAIR OF THE RUSSIA IN THE ASIA- PACIFIC PROGRAM, CARNEGIE MOSCOW been overtaken by Apple, Ama- of European energy security be- crisis. The scope of Russia’s re- is watching if Putin will seek to CENTER zon and Google. The country is cause it would be the end of the newed geopolitical outreach ex- establish Russia as an Indo-Pacif- also facing Ukraine-related sanc- current gas transit agreement. tends well beyond the Eurasian ic power, Russian citizens remain Thomas Gomart, DIRECTOR, IFRI (FRENCH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL tions from the West. Of these, Optimists argue that the sit- space, as is evident in its activity anxious about the country’s eco- RELATIONS) the technological and sectoral uation has been favourable for in Africa and in its return to Cuba. nomic performance in 2018 and in Heather Hurlburt, DIRECTOR, NEW sanctions have had a detrimen- Russia in the past few years. It can be said that Russia’s abil- the coming the years. MODELS OF POLICY CHANGE, NEW AMERICA tal impact on Russia’s financial The hostile state of relations ity to capitalise on global events The “apparent” success(es) growth. Though the country has with the West has been comple- remains unparalleled. It has been of Russia are not uncontested. Timofei Bordachev, DIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR COMPREHENSIVE EUROPEAN some competitive sectors and mented with a turn to Asia for swift to fill the global power vac- Sceptics argue that what appears AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, NATIONAL companies, its sustainability is growth. Post 2014, the country uum resulting from a receding to be success is the root of the RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS contentious. Other domestic has moved towards attaining a US and has capitalised promptly future failure of the country and challenges include negative de- self-sustainable economy which to growing scepticism stemming of the deep-rooted systemic prob- Tatiana Seliverstova, DEPUTY CHAIRMAN, RUSSIAN UNION OF YOUTH mographic trends, degrading can be relatively easily governed from European policies. Russian lems. This belief is embedded in “Russia apparently has educational system, and emigra- by minimal effort from the gov- outlook is primarily based on the the disenchantment about struc- approached their national tion. ernment and Central Bank. This principle of carpe diem which tural reforms that has enveloped foreign policy strategy and Externally, Russia faces a se- came after the country faced does not rely on creating opportu- the country’s youth. Since the the name of this foreign ries of geopolitical challenges in multiple challenges in economic nities but on seizing them when country is endowed with natural the form of China’s Belt and Road crisis, falling oil prices and sanc- they arise. resources, it has so far remained policy strategy is the wider Initiative, as well as the situation tions. However, it is Russia’s It is interesting to note that in prosperous and successful to Eurasian cooperation which in West Asia and Eastern Europe return to the global policy stage spite of an underperforming econ- keep its system afloat. Howev- means neither leaning which it regards as its sphere of with its role in Syria, which is of- omy, isolation from Western mar- er, the unravelling technological on Europe nor on Asia influence. The most immediate ten cited as the biggest achieve- ket and unfavourable demogra- revolution poses a challenge to challenge is Ukraine, given the ment. The success of Syrian op- phy, Russia still manages to create this commodity-based model. but developing its own next Presidential election due eration remains a matter of pride a flutter at the global level, thanks For instance, a decade ago, the international environment next year. The outcome will have for Russians who did not have a to its diplomatic manoeuvrability. commodity-based oil companies favourable for Russia.” significant consequences for say in the Yugoslav crisis in the The country has at its helm a lead- like Exxon Mobil were in great de- —Timofei Bordachev

38 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 39 late 1990s. enough to develop without them. “There is enough resources An important question that This remains a major dilemma of to sustain this foreign policy arises is if Russia would be more Russia’s external relations. The connected and less sanctioned or obvious goal for the next few because operations in Syria less connected and more sanc- years would be to maintain sta- and operations in Ukraine tioned in 2024 than today. The an- bility or even a semblance of it. are not very expensive. The swer depends not only on its own Russia now seeks a foreign policy strategic rationale behind Women in Foreign and decisions but also on external de- strategy based on wider Eurasian velopments. As mentioned earli- cooperation, leaning on neither that is a big question, how Security Policy Day 1 er, Russian overtures depend on Europe nor Asia but developing a does this influence translate seizing opportunities rather than favourable international environ- into some economic creating new ones: the power that ment for itself. The purpose of benefits to Russia? “ Russia has re-built for itself is to this strategy is two-fold. First, the he domain of foreign and se- This is mostly due to domestic ride on the back of global events country needs to develop favour- —Alexander Gabuev MODERATOR rather than to master them. The able conditions for achieving its curity policy has been domi- responsibilities such as raising country’s post-Cold War rise was national development goals and nated by men for centuries. children, running households and Ritika Passi, PROJECT EDITOR & T ASSOCIATE FELLOW, OBSERVER RESEARCH It is usually assumed that working caring for aging parents. Working rather discontinuous and swift second, it needs to establish itself FOUNDATION and the same pattern is expected in the wide spectrum of Eurasia in diplomacy, military or securi- in foreign and security policy of- in the years ahead. Its rise or de- by developing strong multilateral ty-related affairs requires a certain ten requires relentless travel and PANELLISTS cline will be discontinuous, swift ties with countries such as China strength, the ability to travel to dif- inflexible schedules. This puts and dependent on external devel- and Asia. ferent countries, communication greater pressure on women to Houda Cherif, PRESIDENT, CONNECTING opments. skills, and other traits that only achieve a “work-home balance”. GROUP TUNISIA Russia, like other great pow- –Himani Pant men possess. This is unfortunate, These reasons translate to an un- Rachel Rizzo, RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, ers, practises multilateralism of given the distinctive role that derrepresentation of women in TRANSATLANTIC SECURITY PROGRAM, CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY choice. While it has enough clout women play in peace and security top decision-making and leader- to not care about what other affairs and in a nation’s efforts at ship roles, with a larger number of Bi-Khim Hsiao, SENIOR ADVISER, THE countries think, it is not powerful sustainable development. women dropping out of the work- PROSPECT FOUNDATION, CHINESE TAIPEI At the Raisina Dialogue, a force. Li Li, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, SOUTH ASIA, session on ‘Women in Foreign Women’s issues are often SOUTHEAST ASIA AND OCEANIA INSTITUTE, and Security Policy’ discussed segregated from ‘strategic’ is- CICIR the need to look at security from sues such as security or military Lucy Shule, LECTURER AND DIRECTOR a human perspective and why without the realisation that an im- OF STUDIES, NATIONAL DEFENCE COLLEGE, TANZANIA the inclusion of women should provement in the status of wom- be a country’s strategic impera- en across the globe is a strategic Riina Kaljurand, RESEARCH FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND tive. Given the patriarchal nature imperative, and not only a moral SECURITY of society, women often face one. The advancement of wom- social and cultural challenges at en’s rights has significant econom- home and their workplace. Many ic benefits. An increase in female women lack access to education, education and opportunities helps healthcare and opportunities due to raise the household income and to gender discrimination. Cultural improve the health of infants and traditions and beliefs also prevent children. With greater econom- many women from entering the ic participation in the workforce, formal workforce, leaving them women also play a crucial role in largely confined to carrying out reducing poverty and increasing household responsibilities. Many a country’s Gross Domestic Prod- women who enter the workforce uct (GDP). Research shows that are later forced to quit their jobs. closing the gender gap between

40 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 41 male and female employment countries that have higher levels “ For centuries diplomacy helps in economic growth. In ad- of gender equality are associated has been a highly gendered dition, countries in which men with a lower propensity for con- and women enjoy equal rights are flict -- both between and within man’s job because it implies more economically competitive. states. It is important for govern- outward social skills and the International relations is tradi- ments to include women in their ability to travel distant lands tionally viewed as a field of study security efforts as they have a and sometimes unknown that women cannot succeed at, distinctive contribution towards given that the traits required to combating gender-based violence lands too.” excel are not typically associated in conflict zones, implementing —Bi-Khim Hsiao with women. IR, after all, relies programmes that focus on wom- heavily on rhetoric of war, mili- en empowerment, and ensuring tary and realpolitik. However, a that national and international ef- growing body of research shows forts to promote gender equality that the inclusion of women in are not underfunded. Women are peace and security processes in often excluded from peace and fact helps reduce conflict and ad- conflict negotiations with deals vance stability. Across the world, being forged by male political and

military leaders. However, a sus- ment of women should be the tainable and peaceful solution to next step in foreign-policy think- a conflict is only possible when ing. all groups are taken into account. It is only when women are in- –Kriti Shah volved in conflict resolution, can peace be sustainable. This is be- cause women play an important role in preserving communities and bringing conflicting parties together during war and violent Tunisian women have as a periods. Women’s involvement matter of fact participated in negotiation processes not only very actively in all forms broadens the agenda but creates of expressions during gender transformative solutions for a peaceful society. and after the Arab Spring. Gender equality and the active From sittings to strikes participation of women in a coun- to neighborhood watch try’s workforce can act as drivers committees, to social of sustainable development. Em- powering women can serve as a networks. They also objected catalyst for the qualitative growth to the new constitution while of future generations to come being drafted because it which in turn will help in a nation’s described women as partner strategic growth. Understanding, adopting and implementing prac- of men. tices that will help in the advance- —Houda Cherif

42 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 43 The Terror State: Innovative Solutions to New Threats Day 2

he 2018 Raisina Dialogue Gen. Bipin Rawat, India’s Chief took place in the midst of of Army Staff, kicked off the ses- MODERATOR a jilted global political envi- sion with a brief presentation that Virginia Comolli, SENIOR FELLOW T FOR SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT, THE ronment. Beyond the questions raised thougt-provoking questions INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC of global governance, economic on the narratives around terrorism. STUDIES stability and growth, and evolving First, Gen. Rawat called on panels nature of globalisation, the issue such as the Raisina Dialogue, to of terrorism had become more se- form a cohesive and acceptable PANELLISTS terrorism. fact been eroded, and the con- rious as the threats took on new framework for defining who a General Bipin Rawat, CHIEF OF forms. The supposed fall of the Is- “terrorist” is. This has been an ARMY STAFF, INDIA The panellists raised other cept of a “universal” war on ter- contentions, too: for example, the rorism seems even less of a joint lamic State (IS) has hardly made a old call by India—triggered by the Vyacheslav Nikonov, MEMBER OF approach to distinguish between global response than ever before. dent in reducing the levels of vio- fact that Western powers have THE STATE DUMA, RUSSIA the political and military wings of Haqqani correctly highlighted the lence in the Middle East, while at- tackled Islamabad for its terror ac- Major General (Retd.) Amos tacks in Europe, Africa and other tivities relating to Taliban and the a terror group. This is a globally selective approaches on bringing regions rose as part of the fallout Al-Qaeda, but not for its support Gilead, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, contested view where opinions terror suspects to justice by draw- INSTITUTE FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY (IPS), are most divergent. Despite some ing a contrast between the prose- of the so-called “caliphate”. to jihadist groups against India. INTERDISCIPLINARY CENTER (IDC) HERZLIYA Most analysts agree that there However, little has been achieved panellists’ insistence that the po- cution of the suspectstime it took Husain Haqqani, SENIOR FELLOW AND is little hope, if at all, for lasting in concrete terms. Gen. Rawat’s litical and military wings of a terror to prosecute suspects ofin the DIRECTOR FOR SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA, group be regarded equally, the ex- Lockerby bombing in Libya, and peace in Iraq and Syria. Further, views, especially on what he de- HUDSON INSTITUTE the question of tackling global ter- fines as “terrorism”, highlighted amples from Afghanistan—where of those in the 26/11 Mumbai at- rorism efficiently and proactively the very same conundrum that he a military solution has failed—of- tacks with the suspects roaming is rendered even more complex asked the panel to simplify. “The contours of terrorism fer a counter-argument. Afghani- free in Pakistan. by other issues: there is no con- “Anybody who uses violence are now witnessing a change. stan’s lesson points to how a po- What eventually divides a uni- sensus over the definition of the as a means to an end and causes litical wing of a terror group may fied fight against terrorism is, of Terrorists are using systems become critical for last-resort ne- course, an individual nation state’s term “terrorism” at the United disruption to the civilian life with- which are high technology Nations; there is ongoing debate in his own nation or outside the gotiations. interest. It is rare that a non-state about whether or not there are boundaries of their own nation enabled. This hypothesis on the lack of militant actor is capable of thriving political outcome in fighting terror- without one or the other state’s categories of “good” and “bad” should ideally be called a terror- —General Bipin Rawat terrorists; and there is also the is- ist,” Gen. Rawat said. Perhaps it ism was echoed by panellist Am- support. Panellist Dr Vyacheslov sue of state-sponsored terrorism. is this loose gathering of thoughts, bassador Husain Haqqani. He also Nikonov, member of the Russian The very idea of offering “inno- which has put the exercise of de- highlighted the fact that in the 16 State Duma, highlighted the fact vative solutions” to terrorism is fining ‘terrorism’ into a spiral for years since former US President that the most crucial element mired in a lack of basic, globally years. Gen. Rawat’s co-panellists George W Bush declared the in the fight against terrorism is accepted norms on how to ap- further expounded on the chal- “war on terror”, global commit- the state—he said, “only func- proachmanage the problem. lenges to the global effort against ments toward this aim have in tional states and legitimate gov-

44 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 45 ernments can fight terror.” This itive understandings of the issues observation added colour to the are yet to be achieved. The panel- question as to why Moscow sup- lists, more than offering solutions ported Syrian president Bashar only managed to double-down on al-Assad. While Nikonov appreci- the fact that a lot more needs to Ministerial Address: ated that a concert effort is need- be done to bring all interest groups ed globally to tackle terror, his Is- in the same page against terror- Sushma Swaraj, Minister raeli colleague on the same dais, ism. The crux would be to solve Maj. Gen. (Retd) Amos Gilead ex- the cliché, “one man’s terrorist of External Affairs, India pressed, expectedly, a more cau- is another’s freedom fighter”, as tious outlook towards waiting for author Jonah Goldberg called it. It a global narrative against terror- may not be as much of a cliché as ism and giving more leeway to a many would think. state’s taking matter into individu- “Regional powers are t is a great pleasure to welcome you all, to the Third been the impact of disruptive phenomena on it. This al hands. Gilead agreed with most –Kabir Taneja absolutely key to success in Raisina Dialogue.This year the theme of the Dia- includes disruptions within societies, as well as be- of the points, and used as a study this fight with terror.” Ilogue is “Managing Disruptive Transitions: Ideas, tween them. the case of Moscow targeting Institutions and Idioms”. The Dialogue began yester- Nations and regions may well function in their in- Sunni terror groups but not Shia —Vyacheslav Nikonov day, with the key note address by the Prime Minister dividual contexts, but some broad trends are never- ones. He also said that from his of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.We were privileged to theless discernible. Within societies, both opportuni- Israeli experience, states should have Prime Minister Modi in our midst on that occa- ties and challenges have had disruptive implications. not depend entirely on a unified sion. At its most positive, there has been an undeniable international cooperation for fight- In the course of the next two days, different fac- growth in prosperity in wide swathes of the world. ing terrorism. ets of this phenomenon would be deliberated upon in Societies, that for many years lived below poverty Perhaps looking for innovation over 50 sessions. The success of the Dialogue is un- levels, are today witnessing rapidly expanding middle within a global understanding of derlined by the fact, that this year we have participa- classes. This is reflected in the emergence of new countering terror was too big a tion from over 86 countries. I am happy to learn that centres of production as indeed it has of consump- task to ask when basic and defin- 33% of the panellists in this dialogue are women. tion. I am confident that the Dialogue would host stim- With the passage of time, it has produced new ulating discussions on a wide range of subjects. mindsets, lifestyles and aspirations. This is most vis- Few would disagree with the proposition, that to- ible in Asia, including in its two largest nations, In- day, we are indeed a world in transition. Undeniably, dia and China. The journey towards modernization is change is both constant & unrelenting, and, in fact, both, a reflection and a driver of this changing dynam- its pace has quickened with the spread of technology. ics. Very often, the changes are evolutionary, and are But what characterizes international relations today, absorbed without much debate or even awareness. is a sharp departure from longstanding assumptions In other cases, especially when a direct outcome and practices. Some of that certainly reflects struc- of policy choices, they can be more immediate- tural trends, that have led to the rebalancing of the ly impactful. The history of Asian development has global economy, and consequently, of international demonstrated, that governance is a mix of such deci- politics. This is particularly true in respect of Asia. sions. What matters at the end of the day is, whether At the same time, there is no denying that in re- they keep us going in the right direction. sponse to a combination of security, economic and In India, we are seeing all of this underway, at the social developments, globalization itself is in retreat same time. A range of social, economic and devel- politically. The manner in which the world identifies opmental initiatives and campaigns have truly un- and prioritizes challenges, is no longer the same. In leashed transformational possibilities. Some address many ways, neither is the conduct of international longstanding issues of gender balance and literacy relations, especially in its shift away from multilater- levels. Others focus on equipping our youth for em- alism and alliances. ployment, through skills preparation and start-up ca- What has been notable in this transition, has pabilities.

46 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 47 uation. Not just that, it was also actively utilized as an corridor to India have demonstrated that for Afghani- instrument of statecraft. That time has long gone by. stan. The Trilateral Highway holds the same potential We are all now very clear that terrorism anywhere for India-ASEAN connectivity as does the Internation- can threaten societies everywhere. The challenge is al North-South Corridor for that between India, Iran even more serious in a digital age, with greater pro- and Europe. pensity to radicalization. However, there are still old Implementation of our SAGAR doctrine will sim- assumptions and established mindsets in this regard. ilarly have a positive effect on sea-borne trade. But Partly because of the 9/11 precedent, we associate connectivity can also constrain at the same time, if it terrorism with ungoverned spaces. is not well thought through. In a globalized economy, The more recent example of ISIS has reinforced it is important that the building of connectivity is a this stereotype. While not without basis, what is even consultative process. Not just consultative but also more dangerous is terrorism from governed spaces; one based on norms of transparency, good gover- in fact, terrorism actively supported and sponsored nance, commercial viability, fiscal responsibility and by states. To expect that an activity which draws on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. all the ills of the world – fanaticism, crime, bloodshed New lines of connectivity must certainly be treat- and illegal trade – will not have a corrosive impact ed as positively disruptive when they accord with beyond its intended arena is unrealistic. such practices. India itself is very active in expanding Nor will it spare its originators and practitioners. connectivity, both to its East and its West. There are Ensuring zero-tolerance towards terrorism is the call many initiatives involving a large number of nations of the day. in this regard. The role of multilateral institutions in Emphasis on expanding manufacturing is matched set are today struggling to protect their interests, The message is particularly to those who contin- building connectivity is also important. Again, estab- by an equal determination to bridge the digital divide. even if it means moving away from political correct- ue to believe that it can be an instrument of conve- lishing and implementing global norms in this regard Steps towards a more unified and formal economy ness. In a historical sense, we can see this, as a nat- nience. is of utmost priority. have been taken through bold decisions. The path to ural rise and decline of societies. The threat of proliferation of weapons of mass While connectivity is largely a matter of nation- progress is, neither smooth nor inevitable. However, if the outcome is perceived as a result destruction is another disruptive element that this al decision making, even though it has international Governance is, therefore, an exercise in leading of not playing by the rules, then it creates its own Dialogue would be discussing. While it has its own ramifications, a related concern is the safety and se- and managing change. This is not just the case with differences and tensions. It is even more important in history, we should not ignore the fact that prolifera- curity of the global commons. More so than any other India. a world of disruptive transitions that international law tion threats are encouraged in large measure by argu- domain, it has been impacted by a shifting sense of The developmental examples I have given are, is scrupulously respected. Use of force or threats in ments that favour the actual use of WMDs, especially responsibility towards global governance. The mari- after all, fully reflected in the Sustainable Develop- that regard must become an anachronism in the 21st nuclear weapons. I am glad that there is also a ses- time world is experiencing this particularly sharply. ment Goals for 2030. Other nations have their own century. sion devoted to nuclear unpredictability. The old order is expressing its limitations through versions. Our concerns about employment, digitiza- This makes it all the more important that the world Let me add that support for proliferation may also both policy and posture. The new order, however, is tion or corruption are also shared by most societies. today debate and clarify the practices and ethos not just be theoretical. Many contemporary develop- far from being clear. This is really a world in transition. We may debate the nature and outcome of our which underwrites the international order. ments have their roots in longstanding proliferation For the foreseeable future, it appears, that nations inter-dependence. But the reality is that even in dis- Having radically divergent views of how the world linkages that the world deliberately chose to over- with growing capabilities and larger awareness will ruptions, what happens in one part of the world can runs is more likely, than not to increase unpredictabil- look. Like terrorism, nuclear proliferation cannot be have to step forward and bear more responsibility. no longer leave the others unaffected, whether it is ity and enhance disruptive tendencies. addressed effectively in a segmented manner. Fuller On India’s part, I can state that this is already in terms of outcomes or ideas. This conversation will not be easy because, as disclosure and greater accountability are a must. happening. Whether it is the civil war in Yemen, the The domestic consequences of development may you will be debating in a particular session, there are Economic and commercial happenings may not earthquake in Nepal, the landslides in Sri Lanka, the largely be in the growth of aspirations and expansion question marks about the old liberal order. Finding pose the same sharp sense of concern in a world driv- water crisis in Maldives, the cyclone in Myanmar or of opportunities. Its external reflection, however, is greater common ground for more effective interna- en by headlines. But over a longer term, they shape the typhoon in Fiji, we are amongst the first respond- expressed more in the emergence of new power tional relations and more efficient global economics the global order in a very profound way. While the ers in humanitarian assistance and disaster response equations. That arises from shifting economic capa- is today a big challenge. focus in the past was essentially on comparative ad- situations. bilities & changes in comparative advantage. Rising Terrorism is undeniably the mother of all disrup- vantage and market access, there is now a growing However, the world should not exist on the ca- powers naturally seek to exert greater influence and tions today. Our attitude towards it has evolved in realization of the critical importance of connectivity. price of national decisions alone. A more consensual create ecosystems, more favourable to themselves. the last few decades. There was a time when it was It can certainly expand choices for those societies effort to address global challenges of maritime secu- In contrast, societies with a more defensive mind- seen as other people’s problem or a law and order sit- which lack them currently. The Chabahar Port and air rity is as important as towards climate change, nucle-

48 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 49 ar proliferation or terrorism. Among the issues under Significantly, contemporary diplomacy has re- examination, in this Dialogue are facilitating the flow sponded to the limitations of both bilateralism and of capital to match global priorities. multilateralism by not only seeking more regional- Some of your deliberations are focused on trends ism but also coming up with innovative and flexible that could militate against such international cooper- groupings that are focused on issues and challenges. ation. There are some for whom this has been a lim- The rise of the pluri-lateral and the mini-lateral, ited part of their history, tradition or thinking. In the may well be one of the innovations of this transition. case of others, the inclination is towards limiting their There may even be a new rationale for older group- own contribution and working with partners. That, in ings such as the Commonwealth. Policy, Politics and Gender Day 2 itself, may well be a positive development by creat- In a world, where the pressures of the immediate ing the basis for future arrangements. often take precedence over the calculations of the But, the turn inwards has larger implications, for future, it is imperative, that strategists and thinkers the international economy. Economic and commer- find appropriate ways of balancing the two. olitics and policy-making are gender-equal outcomes. This is cial expectations will have legitimacy only as long as We all feel the change underway, even if its caus- MODERATOR they are perceived to be fair and reasonable. Nor is es and implications remain subject to debate. Solu- implicitly gendered. There is crucial because contrary to com- it realistic anymore, that some aspects of global eco- tions and reactions come in different forms and some global consensus that equal mon perception, global rates of Ankhi Das, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC POLICY P (INDIA, SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA), FACEBOOK nomic activity are more constrained than others. The of them are already visible. participation of women and men female labour force participation international discourse cannot focus on goods and Digitization is impacting on governance and ac- in politics is an important condi- have stagnated, and even fallen in investments while neglecting services and mobility. countability in ways that we are only just beginning tion for effective governance and some nations including India. PANELLISTS I know, that in the next two days, different aspects to understand. Artificial intelligence and robotics will stable societies. Despite empiri- According to Ankhi Das, Pub- cal evidence that women’s partic- lic Policy Director, India, South & Smriti Irani, MINISTER FOR TEXTILES AND of our global economic future will be deliberated at surely impact industry in a manner that will be pro- INFORMATION AND BROADCASTING, INDIA this venue. These include, developments pertaining found. ipation in high-level political and Central Asia, Facebook, in addi- economic decision-making leads tion to women being less likely to Robin Gorna, GLOBAL CO-LEAD, to jobs and growth, to the role of women in the work- We have new multilateral banks like the AIIB or SHEDECIDES place, as well as to innovation and technology. Each energy-related institutions like the International Solar to higher standards of living, pos- enter science, engineering, and itive developments in education, technology (SET) jobs, their leave Gabriela Ramos, OECD CHIEF OF of these has its own disruptive aspect. Alliance. Cultural projection and soft power activities STAFF AND SHERPA TO THE G20 But, a conference like this should lead to a better are more prolific and balanced and we Indians take health and infrastructure, a de- rates peak approximately 10 years understanding of the concerns and expectations that pride in the International Day of Yoga. crease in political corruption, and into their careers due to isolation, Wendy Ruth Sherman, SENIOR COUNSELOR, ALBRIGHT STONEBRIDGE GROUP different parts of the world have of each other so that New methods of warfare are being discussed as overall strenghthening of demo- hostile male-dominated work they can be more effectively reconciled. actively as new forums of business. cratic systems – women remain environments, lack of adequate Pascale Fung, PROFESSOR, underrepresented in leadership feedback and mentorship, and in- DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRONIC AND The manner in which international politics is being The agenda, format and participation of discus- COMPUTER ENGINEERING, HONG KONG conducted, is itself undergoing a significant change. sions on international issues is itself very different. roles in domestic and internaltion- effective sponsorship. According UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Understandably, diplomacy has become more bilat- The winds of change have started to affect even the al political spheres as well in the to a 2014 study by Centre for Tal- eral, of late, with nations, pursuing their immediate United Nations. This Dialogue is intended to promote workforce. ent Innovation, almost one-third interests with greater focus and vigour. Having noted global discourse in this regard. That it is taking place The need for discursive spaces of women in the United States that, we cannot overlook the fact that regional and in India and all of you from different parts of the world that encourage dialogue on wom- (32%) and China (30%) intend- multilateral efforts remain in play to a large measure. have responded so enthusiastically is a statement in en’s constructive and participato- ed to leave their SET jobs within In fact, in a flatter world with greater uncertain- itself. ry roles in policymaking has never a year. In India, the intention to ties and less rigid structures, regional cooperative en- I thank you all for coming to the 3rd Raisina Dia- been more crucial. For instance, leave within the year was seen deavours may now acquire greater credibility and sa- logue and wish you very productive deliberations. women make up a majority of the to be slightly less (20%). Further, lience. In our own region, we are finding a renewed Thank you ! 4 billion people excluded from the science, technology, engineering, interest in collaborative activities in the Indo-Pacific emerging digital economy. The and mathematics (STEM) fields and even in the Bay of Bengal. I am, therefore, par- enabling potential of the educat- continue to have fewer women ticularly pleased, that there are sessions exclusively ed use of digital technologies in on boards than other industries devoted to exploring possibilities in this regard. Ob- tackling gender gaps in the labour which has ramifications on the fu- viously, there are also regions that are under stress, force has been acknowledged, ture of technological innovations and how they come out of their current predicament, however, current trends allude to that will shape society. While pol- is equally worth looking at. the fact that gender-neutral pol- icy narratives assert that the digi- icies do not necessarily lead to tal economy could transform the

50 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 51 world of work, the existing ‘digital leadership roles. Policy interven- divide’ within and across nations tions aimed at reducing the gap will exacerbate existing social in- must focus on leveling the playing equalities and reinforce gender field for women, by institutionaliz- hierarchies. ing better maternity and paternity The gender equality agenda benefits and normalizing burden is an undisputed ethical impera- sharing of unpaid work between tive. At the same time, Gabriela men and women. The gender Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and wage gap is another critical issue Sherpa to the G20 makes a case that needs to be addressed. Pres- for framing the issue as a busi- ently, the wage gap for equal jobs ness case. The under-participation in the OECD is about 17%. of educated, capable women in Despite relative progress in the the workforce is also a waste of political and economic spheres in “The truth is we are still much needed human capital. It the last decade, violence against fighting gender inequality in has been suggested that reducing women remains a conspicuous STEM in our region of the the gender gap in labour force par- global concern. Even in advanced world as well”. ticipation of women will produce a economies, a high proportion of 1% growth in all the G-20 econo- women report having faced vio- —Pascale Fung mies. However, Smriti Irani, Min- lence, which demonstrates the ister for Textiles and Information need to go beyond merely es- lence against working women is and Broadcasting, India reiterates tablishing laws, and towards for- much higher than women who ac- that the need to make a business mulating long-term solutions to tually own property or the house case for gender equality shouldn’t tackle patriarchal structures. For in which the family lives as it im- exist; efforts should be made to instance, according to Robin Gor- pacts the power dynamics within end the discriminatory norms that na, Global Co-Lead, SheDecides, the household. Wendy Ruth Sher- exclude competent women from studies show that domestic vio- man, Senior Counselor, Albright Stonebridge and one of the key negotiators of Iran Nuclear Agree- ment Group also reiterated the need for women to not be afraid to own their power. Conversations on the power “She decides whether, when dynamic are important in the pol- and with whom to have icy space. Gender-inclusive poli- cy-making is often misunderstood sex, to fall in love, to marry, as taking the power from one to have children. She has gender and giving it to another as the right to information to opposed to it being the interroga- healthcare to choose.” tion of the very notion of power that leads to unequal outcomes in —Robin Gorna gender relations.

–Vidisha Mishra

52 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 53 Innovation and Creation: Geo Economics In the Knowledge Age Day 2

ostering innovation and tech- ple, Israel’s agricultural advances, nological progress are be- Japan’s high-end infrastructure MODERATOR coming key determinants of programs, America’s Silicon Valley Patrick Kilbride, VICE PRESIDENT (IIP), F GLOBAL INNOVATION POLICY CENTER, U.S. economic growth and a tool to and the Digital India initiative. CHAMBER OF advance geopolitical positions. From India’s perspective, sys- COMMERCE This economic growth will be de- tematic progress in three key PANELLISTS pendent on how countries with areas will help sustain growth emerging economies like India momentum and avoid the mid- Suresh Prabhu, MINISTER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, INDIA incubate new ideas and incentiv- dle-income trap. Firstly, harness- strong IP rights framework that culture that there can be sort incentivises domestic innovation, of a cross fertilization of ideas, ise innovation. By strengthening ing its services-led economy to Kenneth Juster, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO innovation capacities, countries create a knowledge-based and INDIA attracts foreign investors, boosts of folks who may look at issues collaboration, and improves ac- differently but together and col- can become more competitive innovation-driven economy. Sec- Esther Ndichu, VICE PRESIDENT OF and better prepared to face the ondly, India needs to put in place PUBLIC AFFAIRS, UPS (INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, cess to innovation. With the Na- lectively can reach a better and MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA) challenges of globalisation. A con- legal and economic infrastructure tional IPR Policy, India is moving more innovative outcome. versation at the Raisina Dialogue to commercialise its established Saad Mohseni, CHAIRMAN AND CEO, in the right direction. The policy’s Innovation will help address on “Innovation and Creation: role in incremental, frugal inno- MOBY GROUP education and awareness pro- major global challenges such as grammes constitute a bottom-up climate change, energy, security Geo-Economics in the Knowledge vation, while creating an enabling Kavita Gupta, FOUNDING MANAGING Age”, discussed how an innova- environment for transformative, PARTNER, CONSENSYS VENTURES approach, shattering the myth of and health, by boosting income tion-driven geo-economic strat- high-end innovation. Third, strong elitism attached to IP as a tool for and productivity growth, which egy can inform foreign policy as public policy and administrative innovation. are key to fighting poverty and well as how countries can form efforts are needed for India to In contrast the Chinese mar- other social ills. strategic partnerships that ener- transition from an innovation fa- It is interesting to think of ket has unique characteristics – Human capital is the basic gise this process. cilitator to a country that inspires connectivity and making a large domestic demand and a input of innovation, and a series Energizing the latent innova- innovation. policy-induced clustering of spe- of indicators looks at how well innovation instantly available cial economic zones. However, education systems are contrib- tive capacity of India’s domestic Minister of commerce and in- to many people but I have got economy that there is no reason dustry Suresh Prabhu remarked China’s startup ecosystem has to uting to the knowledge and re- that India should not play the role that there are 20,000 start-ups in to believe that there is still an contend with weaker IPR regula- search bases. US ambassador in the global economy that the India which which are being dou- advantage, a key advantage tions compared to other econo- to India Kenneth Juster noted United States did after World War bled in a few years’ time and that mies. at the Raisina Dialogue that cre- of being first mover, disrupter How can like-minded coun- ating and enabling environment II, that China did over the last 20 Inida is trying to encourage start- in effect. years of being the global engine of ups which in a way they come out tries foster collaborations in ar- through the education system eas of innovation, exchanges is important, as an education growth for the world. Prominent with innovative ideas. —Patrick Kilbride democracies have experienced To facilitate such progress, among scientists, technologists, system teaches people how to simultaneous, yet differentiated, India would benefit from an in- applied engineers and others and think creatively. It trains students innovation trajectories – for exam- novation ecosystem backed by a to create the conditions and the to be able to solve problems, to

54 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 55 The Killer Bytes: Countering Violent Extremism Day 2

iolent extremism is gradu- Educating people becomes an ally becoming a real global important task, particularly in a MODERATOR Vthreat that authorities have country like India, where, as Ms Shiv Sahai, JOINT SECRETARY, NATIONAL to deal with. Governments are Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARIAT (NSCS), INDIA grappling with whether to let in- think tank Emirates Policy Centre, dependent social platforms be, or UAE said, “The value of diversity, PANELLISTS to regulate any and every content pluralism, democracy, tolerance that is published. and the state of citizenship in India Ivo Veenkamp, DEPUTY EXECUTIVE take new information and figure of economic slowdown in China, At the Raisina Dialogue 2018, are relevant, unlike its neighbour- DIRECTOR, HEDAYAH CENTRE out how to process it in a cre- India will need to substantially the panel, ‘The Killer Bytes: Coun- ing countries, which are suffering Brian Fishman, COUNTERTERRORISM ative and analytical fashion. Hubs enhance its disruptive innovation tering Violent Extremism’, aimed from social divisions, weak nation- POLICY MANAGER, FACEBOOK such as Silicon Valley incubate a capabilities in order to step up and to build a conversation on the col- al integration and identity crisis, all Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, PRESIDENT, culture of not only risk-taking but play its important role as a strong, lective utility of social media plat- of which feed into an inclination EMIRATES POLICY CENTRE a culture that accepts failure, an democratic and economic alterna- forms, the responsibility of such towards extremism and radical- important that people be free to tive in the Indo-Pacific. Alexander Klimburg, DIRECTOR, THE platforms, and the kind of regu- ism among several segments of GLOBAL COMMISSION ON THE STABILITY OF try new ideas, to fail and not to be lations that would be required to society most of the time.” At the CYBERSPACE punished for doing so. control the unwarranted use of same time, it is equally important Fauziya Abdi Ali, PRESIDENT OF But up to now, innovation social media. It is just as pertinent to follow up with people who are WIIS KENYA AND CHAIR, SISTERS WITHOUT BORDERS economics, and innovation pol- to note the impact of such use in perceived as possibly vulnerable. icy, has not fully been appreciat- creating and promoting violent ex- From the games children play ed by policymakers, in large part tremism. at a young age, Indian society We are working with because the dominant economic India is no stranger to online tends to treat “mild” amounts governments to ensure policy models advocated by most hate speech and its resultant vio- of violence as acceptable. This is economic advisors and implicitly lence. Vitriolic trolling and doxing seen with toy guns, for example, that we not only are able held by most policymakers largely to protect our customers are mostly reserved for certain and other objects that can influ- ignore innovation and technolo- communities and tends to remain ence impressionable minds and but also make sure that the gy-led growth. Anticipating areas unchecked. Law enforcement foster a culture where violence environment is conducive for of research that are important agencies and the platforms that is not only tolerated, but is in fact to future economic growth of a allow for the spread of violence glorified. Parents think that apply- us to be able to deliver the country, whether it be how to services that our customers need to work from the same par- ing “child blocks” on certain ob- analyze big data, genomics, oth- adigm. Here is where the hercu- jectionable web sites will prevent are looking for. er areas like artificial intelligence, lean challenge lies in terms of children from being led to content robotic will be key to being able —Esther Ndichu violent extremism: nobody is uni- that promotes violence. What to exploit innovation as a geo-eco- versal in their approach to the kind they must also know is that chil- nomic tool. Against the backdrop of narrative it establishes. dren will always be a step ahead

56 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 57 and will go around such “locks” founded to help people connect and be able to access whatev- with each other, the social media er sites they feel like. This is the giant wants to tap into the push loophole that terror groups latch and pull factors that drive individu- on to, and influence young minds als to violent extremism. for possible recruitment. This is not to say that young Social-media users post all people are not making attempts kinds of content on these plat- to drive this conversation them- forms, which might not always selves. Indeed, they are the ones help in differentiating between developing and identifying actual fact and propaganda. Facebook’s alternatives and counter-narra- counter-terrorism policy manager, tives. What young people require Mr Brian Fishman, stated during is timely support and guidance the panel discussion that Face- from people in decision-making “International cyber security book attempts to combat terrorism positions, as the problem of coun- is the game of war and on its platform via a four-pronged tering violent extremism also in- peace between states and strategy: preventing terrorists cludes the future of the internet addresses effectively what from utilising Facebook specifical- and cyber space, which is a man- ly; working with industry partners made domain. is legally permissible in both to improve the ability of industry If we are to inhabit a free world peace time and war time to counter terrorism; engagement where all kinds of speech should and what is both technically “Communication is the other supports a multi-stake- of the latest technologies that are with law enforcement and gov- be allowed, must such a domain practical.” important. I think it is even holder model of managing the utilised to foment violence, and ernments around the world; and be regulated in any manner? There internet. It is imperative to find find ways to deal with and over- —Alexander Klimburg working with counter-speech, in are two sides to this debate – one critical but we should not a middle ground between these come online extremism. terms of how to promote voices bats for a cyber space where the forget to also look at what two strategies of countering vio- that are looking to push back on internet is managed through in- is it that makes individuals lent extremism. As author Alex- –Shreya Sethuraman terrorism. While Facebook was ter-governmental context, and vulnerable in the first place to ander Klimburg explains, “One of the reasons why the internet has the messages that were sent been so successful is because to them through social media the actual running of internet re- and that are available on the sources, the actual core of the in- internet.” ternet has been outside of these types of debate [of censorship]. —Ivo Veenkamp So, when thinking how to count- er radical extremism or any kind of offensive content, we should only be concentrating on individu- al content itself and not really the road, not the internet that trans- ports this content for that might take us down a path we really don’t want to go down.” While the debate continues over the regulation of cyber space and how it is going to be misused for radicalisation, governments must come forward, keep abreast

58 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 59 Strat-Con: Emerging Security Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific Day 2

he term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has ond World War. Since President formally entered the politi- Donald Trump assumed office, MODERATOR cal lexicon as a result of its there has been a self-centred re- C. Raja Mohan, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE T INDIA recurrent use over the past year, trenchment by an America that cementing its utility as a mental has traditionally been the largest map to analyse strategic trends stake-holder in regional securi- PANELLISTS that are emerging in Asia. In a fair- ty. The Trump administration’s ly dynamic space involving every- approach has been anchored in Christopher Pyne, MINISTER FOR DEFENCE INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA thing from competition between shared responsibility and equal concept. mechanisms offer a normative the major powers to grey-zone expenditure of resources among Maliki Osman, SENIOR MINISTER OF In the Indo-Pacific geograph- framework for cooperation and STATE FOR DEFENCE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS, ical concept that unites two confidence-building, but varied warfare to competing infrastruc- partners and allies. However, SINGAPORE tural development plans, there is security concerns arising from oceans, the security of maritime interpretations of the Indo-Pacif- a geopolitical theatre poised to China’s growing dominance has Ram Madhav, NATIONAL GENERAL commons is central. The role of ic construct reveals a fracture in SECRETARY, BJP AND DIRECTOR, INDIA China in diminishing the secu- the group, one that dwarfs ASE- serve as the nerve centre of 21st resulted in a need to expand the FOUNDATION century global politics. Yet, even region’s security framework and rity of these commons through AN centrality and threatens the Nadia Schadlow, DEPUTY ASSISTANT land reclamation activities and regional institutional structures. as national security strategy doc- India fits the bill. It is a regional TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY uments and white papers on de- power with open access to the STRATEGY, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL subsequent militarisation of the Within the Indo-Pacific construct, fence have normalised the term, sea, has robust military capabili- South China Sea distresses other power contestation subsumes there is a distinct difference in the ties, is equally suspicious of Chi- nations. ASEAN (Association of the concerns of smaller nations way nations treat this geo-strate- nese intentions in Asia, and shares South East Asian Nations), which who do not want to be used as gic frame of reference. The ac- common democratic values with lies at the centre of this mental pawns in a battle for supremacy ceptance of the term divides na- the US and its allies. This quest “The policies in the last 10 map has borne most of the brunt. The recent East Asia Summit in tions into two – on the one hand to club the security dynamics of years where the United Their interests for the most part Manila is a prime example of this are those who choose to conform the Indian and Pacific Oceans also lie in the openness of the re- increasing malaise, when a closed States has looked towards gional commons for unfettered quadrilateral meeting between In- to a rule- based international or- suits India as it not only offers a Asia are ones that are very der with established norms and chance to check an increasingly fishing access and accessible dia, United States, Japan and Aus- values, and on the other, those assertive China, but also allows a welcome in our part of the trade routes, and security from tralia pushed the more inclusive who are keen to advance their framework within which to con- world. The balance between violent extremism, cyber-crimes and open East Asia Summit to the own security interests by the use solidate and operationalise the and piracy. However, they are background. countries like India and China more inclined towards individual China is the key uniting factor of a different construct - one that ‘Act East’ policy and become a and the United States are prioritises a hierarchical regimen serious stake-holder in regional states’ sovereignty and right to behind this strategic conceptual- over the regional commons. security. Simply put, wherever it important to us.” pursue independent foreign poli- isation and even though propo- cies rather than common securi- nents of the Indo-Pacific construct The United States has actively is beneficial to combine the secu- —Christopher Pyne contributed to preserving peace rity dynamics of the two oceans, ty, and this has split the grouping like to posit otherwise, China’s re- in Asia since the end of the Sec- ‘Indo-Pacific’ is touted as a novel into different camps. ASEAN-led luctance to employ it as a frame

60 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 61 of strategic reference suggests strategic concept, emerging secu- “The Trump administration’s that it is a mental map that was rity dynamics threatening their im- strategy seeks to shift the built out of concern not consen- mediate interests have softened sus. China’s interests in the Indi- their attitude to the construct. The balance of power back in Giving India a Strategic an and Pacific Ocean vary signifi- Indo-Pacific allows more manoeu- favour of the United States, Edge: Production, cantly, even if their manoeuvres vring space for countries due to its allies and its partners. might have common features. its supranational multi-dimension- The challenges posed by Innovation & Technology More importantly, while China has al framework in comparison to the larger strategic goals with regard flailing model of ASEAN centrality. repressive governments Partnerships Day 2 to the Belt and Road Initiative, In an increasingly interconnected and non-state actors are ones that supersede the Indo-Pa- Asia, where sovereignty, security real, especially the threats cific, its core security interests lie and prosperity are inter-linked and they pose to free and open firmly within the first island chain. transcends boundaries, the an- societies such as the United s India’s global profile few takers as most companies do Therefore, the use of the term swer to an increasingly bellicose MODERATOR “Indo-Pacific” itself is proof of the China, is the Indo-Pacific con- States and India.” grows, it will have to take not have any work orders justify- emerging security dynamics and struct itself. on major responsibilities ing investment in infrastructure. Ashok Malik, PRESS SECRETARY TO THE —Nadia Schadlow A the geopolitical allegiances of indi- with regard to monitoring and Despite announcements al- PRESIDENT OF INDIA vidual countries. –Tuneer Mukherjee securing the Indo-Pacific region. most every month, not one big This will need India to step up its project has taken off. With just Is the Indo-Pacific thus an en- PANELLISTS forced map conceptualised to suit regional security capabilities. The about a year left, Modi govt un- certain interests or is it a growing Indian government has begun to likely to have much to showcase Ajay Kumar, SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE PRODUCTION, INDIA consensual frame through which increasingly focus on an indige- in 2019.The number seems im- countries look at the region? The nous defence industry as part of pressive – 148 capital acquisi- Richard Verma, VICE CHAIRMAN, THE truth lies somewhere in between. an attempt to become a global de- tion proposals have been cleared ASIA GROUP While most countries belonging fence production hub, create jobs (granted AON) by the government Jeffrey Colman, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, to the region do not necessarily domestically, as well as reduce in the past three years, of which POLICY AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS, AIPAC strategic dependence on the rest 105 proposals worth approxi- see themselves as part of a larger Cara Abercrombie, VISITING of the world. For this strategy to mately Rs 2.33 lakh crore have SCHOLAR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR be successful, India will need to been categorised as Make in In- INTERNATIONAL PEACE emphasize defence innovation dia. However, not a single one Vice Admiral Bernard J and form global partnerships. of these proposals under Make McCullough (USN, Retd), VICE Unveiled last year, the Strater- in India has managed to make it PRESIDENT - INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, LOCKHEED MARTIN ROTARY gic Partnership model has aimed through to full approvals. AND MISSION SYSTEMS to create a vibrant defence man- The current defence budget ufacturing ecosystem in the as a percentage of GDP is lowest country through joint ventures since the India-China war in 1962, between Indian corporates and a parliamentary panel in 2018. In- global defence majors. However, dia’s defence budget was 1.63% the defence ministry has been of GDP for the year 2017-18. If struggling to simplify a process the money isn’t going to be made it believes is complicated and set available, there is no point to this back defence modernisation in process. the UPA era. Additionally, India’s Defence While the government has an- Public Sector Units (DPSUs) pres- nounced incentives for companies ent a two pronged challenge to a to invest in facilities in two de- government grappling with little fence corridors- in Uttar Pradesh progress in the modernisation of and Tamil Nadu – there have been the armed force. Firstly, the public

62 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 63 sector has consistently failed to ed as a permanent body chaired deliver on times and in line with by the NSA, will look to improve the armed forces expectations. the government’s Strategic Part- And secondly, the private sector nership Model and the new 2018 is having a tough time compete- DPP which has been pressing for ing with the public sector for the indigenous capacity building. The big orders which has years of procurement of future projects in-house experience and under- and delivery of projects already pricing subsidised by the govern- in process is bound to get influ- ment. This has led to the ministry enced by the committee. The few commissioning a study on pricing such initiative in process are the mechanisms. Indian Navy’s Project 75I (P75I) for Any RFP should be as specific six latest-generation attack sub- as possible in terms of the require- marines is expected to be com- It is very important for a ments for technology transfer and pleted by 2020. Also invitation of nation to have a strategic domestic production under Chap- Indian Navy for Rs 95,000-crore sovereign defence industrial ter 07 of the Defence Procure- tender to purchase 57 fighter air- base and it needs to be ment Procedure (DPP) governing craft. This move comes close on strategic partnerships. Detailed the heels of the Indian Air Force focused on value-added clarity in the RFP and mandatory (IAF) seeking RFIs for110 fighter capabilities that are not compliance of participating ven- jets. RFI for purchase 123 NMRH already prevalent in the main battle tanks (MBTs). dors with the terms for technolo- and 111 NMUH had been sent last marketplace. The defence export policy gy transfer and domestic produc- year to major manufacturers. Indi- and easing of licenses have been tion will prevent such a situation an army’s RFI for approximately —Vice Admiral Bernard J identified as positive steps, other from arising. 1770 Armoured Fighting Vehicles McCullough (USN, Retd) reforms are still on paper. A draft The Defence Planning Com- in a Phased Manner, to replace the proposal to reform defence pro- mittee which has been constitut- Indian Army’s ageing force of T-72 duction remains in the consulta- tion stage, while another to open up offsets to investing in Sebi ap- proved funds and start-ups is yet to announced. It is very important for a nation to have a strategic sovereign defence industrial base You need to build a political and it needs to be focused on val- consensus in the United ue-added capabilities that are not States for these type of already prevalent in the market- place. The policy cannot preclude relationships to be enduring innovation. and sustainable. That means –Pushan Das bipartisanship. —Jeff Colman

64 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 65 In Conversation: M.J. Akbar

MJ Akbar spoke with Zalmay American administration in the Khalilzad on an array of subjects in context of a global shift towards PANELLISTS line with US-India power relations re-emphasized sovereignty. Both M.J. Akbar, MINISTER OF STATE with each other, their neighbours, stressed the need to revisit the EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, INDIA and third-party nations. Evaluat- definition of a nation state. This Zalmay Khalilzad, FORMER ing President Trump’s South Asia is especially relevant in a world AMBASSADOR OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE UNITED NATIONS AND COUNSELLOR, CENTER foreign policy, they fleshed out where the concept of tradition- FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES the strategic goals of the present al warfare is almost completely obsolete and is replaced by toxic conflict between as a check on Pakistani disruption of Afghani state those who subscribe to the notion of the nation state building and tacit sponsorship of terrorist activity. and those who do not. Looking towards technology, specifically its use as Akbar and Khalilzad discussed the origins of de- a positive disruption under Modi’s poverty alleviation mocracy, and the Westphalian model of mutual re- policies and as a negative disruption as an alternative spect and recognition of sovereignty, underscoring to weapons of mass destruction, Akbar and Khalilzad the importance of public will in a functional democ- express careful hope for India’s evolving path and the racy. This public will, Akbar asserted, is most pow- US’ strengthened foreign policy. erful when practically wielded in pluralistic national- ism against forces that destabilise the grounds upon I think we sometimes have which modern nation states are established. Akbar a naïve view of terrorism continued to describe these forces as a dichotomous challenge. The first dimension is the appropriation of that it is only an extension the nation state as a religious space, and the second of maverick, barbaric is the fear used to disintegrate pluralistic societies. behaviour patterns. I would They both then adopt an instrumental approach to an- submit to you for your alysing the employment of ideologies in the past and, through a critical lens, in the present. This analysis consideration that most brings to the fore the self-destructive nature of state serious terrorism comes sponsored terrorism. Such behaviour from nation from those who have very states perpetuate the necessary conditions for the very well defined political survival of toxic ideology and become increasingly burdensome for the host/sponsoring nation to pur- objectives. sue in the long term. —M.J. Akbar Speaking specifically of nations in the Asian con- tinent, both addressed the role of India as a balance to rising hegemonic aspirations from China, and

66 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 67 uncertain, Stephen Harper admits, and vital trade routes. It captures, especially as China rises. Even as as Shinzo-Abe stated in a 2007 Western democracy flounders, speech at the Indian Parliament, Xi Jinping has cemented his au- a “broader Asia,” brought togeth- The End of the Liberal thority in China and has offered er by the confluence of two seas. “socialism with Chinese charac- This redrawing of the mental map Order: The Beginning of teristics for a new era” as a “new also ties the growing material and option” for other countries. political weight of countries in this the Asian Century? Day 2 China is taking the lead in de- region to three key actors: China, fining Asia’s political, economic India and the US. and security architecture through “A ‘rules-based order’,” says its ambitious Belt and Road Initia- James Carafanno, “requires tive and its leadership in institu- somebody to enforce the rules.” he international liberal or- this situation, Igor Morgulov says, “We talk about things like MODERATOR tions such as the AIIB. Beijing’s At the East Asia Summit in Ma- der—a system of norms, in- “The Liberal West [is] unwilling to unapologetic violation of interna- nila last year, India, Japan, the the extension of human stitutions and alliances that accept the reality of a new multi- Shashi Tharoor, MEMBER OF tional law in the South China Sea US and Australia came together rights and democratic T PARLIAMENT AND CHAIRMAN OF THE formed the basis of global gover- polar world.” As a dynamic eco- PARLIAMENTARY STANDING COMMITTEE ON is perhaps the surest sign that it to resuscitate the “Quadrilater- governance as a matter of nance after the end of World War nomic and political region, Asia EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, INDIA intends to replace the post-war al dialogue.” In addition to these II—appears today to be in crisis. will continue to draw in Western order with a system characterised countries sharing common polit- principle, of right to protect, “Very few predicted,” Theresa powers. However, to govern this PANELLISTS by deference to the Middle King- ical values, there is also a clear for instance, in international Fallon points out, “that democra- space, Asian states are the ones Stephen Harper, FORMER PRIME dom. However, it is not only China convergence of interest in man- law. I think the truth of the cies would be the problem.” From crafting new regional blocs, such MINISTER, CANADA that will define the Asian century. aging the maritime commons by matter is that kind of view the election of Donald Trump to as the ASEAN and the SCO; new In October last year, US Secre- improving connectivity, provid- James Carafano, VICE PRESIDENT, of a liberal international Brexit, the consequences of glo- institutions, such as the Asian In- FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICY STUDIES, THE tary of State Rex Tillerson spoke ing maritime security as a public balisation, new technologies and frastructure and Investment Bank; HERITAGE FOUNDATION about a partnership between India good and creating a regional order order has never really been demographic change have put a and new political norms, such as Igor Morgulov, DEPUTY MINISTER and the US that would guarantee based on international law. one that is in practice been strain on the democratic process- respect for civilisational diversity. OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE RUSSIAN a “rules-based order” in the In- The Indo-Pacific will, there- widely accepted anyway.” es and institutions. Asia presents a unique chal- FEDERATION do-Pacific. fore, soon emerge as ground zero The turbulence in western lenge. Unlike the transatlantic Ina Lepel, DIRECTOR-GENERAL ON ASIA The term ‘Indo-Pacific’ rep- in determining the future of the —Stephen Harper democracies has had spillover ef- system, where democracy and AND THE PACIFIC, FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE, resents a geography that strad- Asian century and, by extension, GERMANY fects. Around the world, democ- free markets enjoyed broad- dles Eastern Africa and extends the future of the international lib- racy is in decline and trade protec- based political support, Asia has Theresa Fallon, DIRECTOR, CENTRE towards East Asia and is home to eral order. tionism is on the rise, challenging competing understandings of or- FOR RUSSIA EUROPE ASIA STUDIES about 40 percent of the world’s the very ideas that would signify der, e.g. China’s Tian-Xia, Russia’s population, rare mineral resources –Akhil Deo the “end of history”. At the same civilisational spheres of influence, time, larger geopolitical shifts are ASEAN’s respect for plurality and underway: economic power is non-interference. Consequently, shifting eastwards, towards Asia. there is often some form of com- Since the turn of the century, petition over the political order when India and China followed within Asia, as well as cooperation the footsteps of the East Asian on trade and investment, which “tiger economies,” the key ques- have benefited most countries in tion has been how the Asian the region. According to Ina Lapel, century would affect the liberal the “concept of order requires international order. That this or- some reform,” and “today’s insti- der was crafted to the benefit of tutions do not correspond to the the transatlantic community is not global realities.” How “liberal” lost on Asian powers. Assessing this new reformed order will be is

68 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 69 Speaking at a panel on “Framing of actors involved – private sector, the Health Agenda for the G20”, foundations, industry, civil society, Mr. Andreas Schaal, Director, humanitarian aid institutions and OECD Global Relations and OECD governments. It has always been G20 Sous Sherpa, pointed to the a challenge to bring all these ac- growing importance of global con- tors together, however, a rare oc- Framing the Health Agenda vergence for strengthening health casion when this did happen was security by saying that “besides during the Ebola outbreak. A de- for the G20 Day 2 what we are doing in national cisive joint action steered by the healthcare systems, international G20, International Monetary Fund coordination is very important and (IMF) and World Bank led to an international coordination goes additional funding of 300 million beyond existing structures of the USD in the fight against Ebola, raditionally designed to million cases worldwide. There- “Around one quarter of MODERATOR WHO”. used to increase awareness and serve as a premier forum fore, under the theme of ‘Shaping Since health is only a recent global coordination. economic growth between Tfor global economic gover- an interconnected world’, health Shamika Ravi, SENIOR FELLOW, addition to the G20 agenda, its The G20 therefore, could pos- 2000 and 2011 in low and nance, the Group of 20 or G20, was an indispensible subject and BROOKINGS INDIA exact role in the global health gov- sibly fill the gap in the current middle income countries over the years has begun focusing critical for ‘Building resilience, Im- ernance space is yet to be deter- global health architecture by facili- on social issues such as health, proving Sustainability and Assum- estimated to be stemming PANELLISTS mined. To that end, Dr. Wulf Rein- tating goals, as it is good at creat- education, food security, climate ing Responsibility’ – the three pil- ers suggested that the G20, given ing common objectives. But what from improved economic change etc. The realisation that lars of Germany’s G20 presidency. Andreas Schaal, DIRECTOR, OECD its existing resources and setup, it cannot do, is implement them health.” development challenges have an With two-thirds of the world’s GLOBAL RELATIONS AND OECD G20 SOUS SHERPA could provide leadership for health by itself, and this is where univer- impact on the long-term econom- population, 75% world trade through political support, launch- sal institutions such as the WHO —Andreas Schaal ic productivity of nations, led the and 85% of global GDP, health Helen Rees, WITS REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND HIV INSTITUTE ing new initiatives and setting step in. In fact, the G20 cannot group to expand its agenda well and well being of the 20 mem- a common agenda. The current replace the WHO or any other tra- beyond the usual subject matters, ber countries have direct conse- F. Gray Handley, ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, global governance system is ex- ditional institution for that matter to a more ‘people-centric’ agen- quences for global health as well INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AFFAIRS, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND tremely complex with a plethora – it is an economic forum where da. In fact, for the first time, under as for the 2030 Sustainable Devel- INFECTIOUS DISEASES the German presidency last year, opment Goals (SDGs). During a Elena Dmitrieva, DIRECTOR OF health was placed at the center of keynote speech at the G20 Health RUSSIAN NGO HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT discussions and the 20 countries Ministers Meeting last year, Dr. FOUNDATION pledged for greater global cooper- Margaret Chan, the then Direc- Wulf Reiners, HEAD, MANAGING ation on health. tor General of the World Health GLOBAL GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME, The two key factors responsi- Organisation (WHO) reiterated GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE ble for the recent increased focus support for the new agenda by on global health security were – stating that “Strong, resilient and (1) the growing threat of antimi- inclusive health systems are a first crobial resistance (AMR), which line of defence against the threat could potentially risk 10 million from emerging and re-emerging lives per year and result in a global diseases”. economic loss of 100 trillion USD While it may be true that an by 2050, and (2) global experience interconnected world is more in dealing with the Ebola outbreak prosperous, it also means that which exposed weak health sys- the effects of a weak health sys- tems and poor pandemic pre- tem in one country could result in paredness across the world. The apocalyptic consequences for the worst-case projections estimated rest of the world – Globalisation that the outbreak could lead to 1.4 is indeed a double edged sword.

70 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 71 Towards EU 2.0: Seeking Leadership in a New World Order Day 2

nspired by a dream of peaceful populism raise concerns over the common future, the EU’s found- union’s standing today – not just MODERATOR ing members embarked on a in the context of the EU states but Serena A. Chaudhry, TV NEWS I PRODUCER, REUTERS journey of European integration also on the global platform. with the signing of the Treaty of Negative demographic trends Rome in 1957.The EU is a unique also carry long-term implications. PANELLISTS project where domestic priorities With the median age of 45, Eu- are combined and sovereignty rope will be the “oldest” region in Ruchi Ghanashyam, SECRETARY 20 powerful countries can join gagement groups. These include (WEST), MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, “Moving from maternal pooled in to better serve nation- the world by 2030. The situation INDIA health to women’s health, forces to fund and pool resourc- the Business 20 (B20), Women 20 al and collective interests. It was has been compounded by the in- es to support a policy change and (W20), Civil 20 (C20), Think Tank Marek Magierowski, DEPUTY we often tend to mistake the never a smooth journey for the EU flow of refugees. This has led to a MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, POLAND challenge. 20 (T20), Science 20 (S20), Labour but it has emerged as the most contentious debate about solidari- two to be the same. In fact, in DEPUTY SECRETARY The next G20 presidency, un- 20 (L20) and Youth 20 (Y20) – per- successful model of integration. ty and responsibility among mem- Pedro Serrano, der Argentina, has decided to haps it is time to form a Health 20 GENERAL, EUROPEAN EXTERNAL ACTION India a large part of women’s Unlike the phase of prosperity in ber states and fuelled a broader SERVICE health is concentrated around take the previous health agenda (H20) to take the dialogue forward. the last decade and half, it is now dialogue on the future of border forward by focusing on AMR and Charles Powell, DIRECTOR, ELCANO reproductive health and that facing several challenges. As it management and free movement ROYAL INSTITUTE universal health coverage (UHC), –Priyanka Shah tries to navigate both political and within Europe. Amidst a migrant is a concern”. Carl Bildt, FORMER PRIME MINISTER, with an addition to its list of health economic upheavals, the question crisis, the other considerations priorities – the emerging threat SWEDEN —Shamika Ravi that arises is how relevant is the are the perceptions on the neg- from non-communicable diseases union in today’s political climate of ative impact of globalisation, dis- Fyodor Lukyanov, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF (NCDs), particularly obesity and OF RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS, CHAIRMAN OF changing world order. appearing manufacturing jobs THE PRESIDIUM OF THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN nutrition related diseases. While The EU is currently undergoing and economic inequality. This has AND DEFENCE POLICY AND RESEARCH the G20 has been doing remark- DIRECTOR OF THE VALDAI INTERNATIONAL an identity crisis. Initially set up to resulted in a growing disillusion- DISCUSSION CLUB ably in drawing commitments and initiate peace in Western Europe ment with the EU, as a result of Geoffrey Van Orden, MEMBER OF setting the agenda, it is important in the aftermath of the Second which populist forces have gained to remember that ‘vision without THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT FOR THE EAST World War, the EU’s identity un- popularity among European citi- OF ENGLAND execution is hallucination’. There- derwent a transformation after zens. fore, it is crucial for the group to the end of the Cold War. With In addition, after the spate of monitor each country’s commit- the turn of the century, it became recent terrorist attacks in EU cit- ments and to track what they are involved in areas which were ies, the European Union leaders doing, especially in the field of beyond its original domain. As a also switched priorities, position- health. result, the coherence of the EU ing terrorism and security at the The G20 has allowed voices project gradually began to erode. top of their agenda. The European from various sectors in the form Issues like Brexit, member states’ Council has recently adopted the of stakeholder consultations or en- policy preferences and rise of creation of a defence and securi-

72 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 73 tion is expected to guarantee the tinue to depend on its openness As the world’s largest integrity and cohesion of the sin- and links with its partners. democracies, India and the gle market, the Schengen area and EU’s place in the world de- the European Union and will be of pends on how well it is able to EU share a desire to work interest to the world. Which path guarantee its political, economic closely together and with all or combination of paths the EU and social cohesion. It also needs relevant players to support will pursue will have implications. to come to terms with the fact a rule based international The EU continues to be one of the that sharing sovereignty is only important players in multilateral one of the many ways to harmo- order that upholds agreed diplomacy, with its contribution to nise diversity and manage varied international norms, global brokering the historic Joint Com- interests. It needs to be more pre- peace and security. prehensive Plan of Action with pared for policies of other coun- Iran and Paris Agreement on cli- tries who do not share the same —Ruchi Ghanashyam mate change. Europe’s prosperity values as the EU. and ability to uphold its cherished values of respect for human dig- –Himani Pant nity and human rights, freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law on the world state, will con- ty cooperation network called the economic globalisation, political Permanent Structured Coopera- democracy and national sover- tion (PESCO). The neighbourhood eignty. The future will depend on policy or policies is another crucial the EU’s ability to balance max- challenge for the EU. imising the benefits of globalisa- Considering the internal and tion and mitigating its negative external challenges the EU is impacts currently facing, there are con- To tackle these challenges, the cerns over the sustainability of EU needs to demonstrate that the existing integration among it is part of the solution and not its states. The other contention part of the problem. It needs to is the multiple crisis points could secure the long-term viability and possibly produce some beneficial stability of the Euro. The EU has “The European Union has reforms and eventually transform to be more proactive in achieving the EU into a more effective and sustainable inclusive growth and started to see itself as a cohesive entity. According to for- boosting job creation. Most im- prototype for the international mer president of Sweden, Carl portantly, it needs to help national system in the future, as a Bildt, the “Brexit, Putin and Trump governments fight the growing model for others and to a (BTP) effect” has led to a rise in inequality in Europe. Third, there support for the EU by between 5 is a need to develop a credible certain extent ever extending and 10 percent in countries where migration policy. This implies that Union which would bring this polling took place. the process of the union needs to rethink the experience and values further Brexit has illustrated how deeply kind of labour market it wants to away. integrated EU economies and so- develop. The two other important cieties really are. considerations are to turn its fo- —Fyodor Lukyanov EU’s major challenges in the cus on the ageing population, and near future are thus essentially in- budget reforms. ternal- the trilemma of reconciling Any model for future coopera-

74 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 75 The Rise of City-States: Democracy, Security, and Foreign Policy Day 2

ural to urban migration has nation state. proven to be one of most The rise of city-states has MODERATOR consequential trends in changed the way that govern- Nisha Desai Biswal, PRESIDENT, R USIBC modern history. Today, over 50 ments build and invest in cities. percent of the world lives in ur- In India, for example, close to ban spaces – a dramatic rise from 600 million Indians will live in ur- PANELLISTS just a century ago. As the world’s ban spaces by 2030. In an effort population has become concen- to take advantage of this human Hardeep Singh Puri, MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR HOUSING the United States, for example, is responsible for over 20 percent trated in urban agglomerations, capital boom, the government has AND URBAN AFFAIRS, INDIA these centres have subsequently implemented a series of reforms multiple cities have adopted their of the national GDP. The local gov- Daniel Andrews, PREMIER OF own policies and initiatives on key ernment in Melbourne has placed turned into critical hubs of eco- to invest in ‘Smart Cities’. In other VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA nomic activity, technological inno- words, India has recognised that issues of climate change and im- an emphasis on seeking private vation, and social activism. Cities investment in cities is necessary migration – policies that are diver- investment for infrastructure de- today are considered powerful to sustain growth and pace job gent from those that of the nation- velopment, creating new jobs in economic forces that possess in- creation, infrastructure develop- al government. high-skilled industries, and mar- dependent global strategies and ment, and service provision. As city-states continue to as- keting itself as a regional manu- vested interests in international Congruent with these shifts in sert themselves, their role in facturing hub. affairs. As they continue to grow investment, the responsibilities crafting the global social, eco- The economic capacity of city- in influence and scale, there is no and actions of these urban cen- nomic, political arrangements will states like Melbourne makes it doubt that these emergent “city- tres has also been reimagined. be increasingly debated. In this likely that the next wave of pro- states” will serve as anchors for Cities today no longer operate “The implementation context, both Minister Puri and ductivity enhancing reforms will Premier Andrews agreed that come from cities. Both Minister development and stakeholders in or function solely under the pur- or the realization of the securing a sustainable future. view of national governments. city-states could play a vital role in Puri and Premier Andrews agreed At the Raisina Dialogue 2018, Instead, they exercise autonomy opportunities that lie within strengthening economic growth that cities today often approach Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s Min- and actively pursue their own a free trade agreement is and promoting human develop- issues with a greater level of ur- ister of State of Housing and Ur- agendas. City-states are involved always left to firms and the ment through targeted, local pol- gency and are straddled with less icies. red tape than national govern- ban Affairs, and Daniel Andrews, in a variety of dynamic activities sub-sovereign governments the Premier of Victoria, Australia, in both domestic and internation- Cities today account for over ments. As a result, city-states are explored the role that city-states al affairs – they establish their who are about delivering the 80 percent of global GDP. In both able to execute economic agree- can play in the global value chain. own trading and investment ave- produce, delivering all the developing and developed coun- ments and implement social pro- They discussed the impact that nues, engage in people-to-people capability that lies underneath tries across the globe, national grammes with expediency and governments are largely depen- efficiency, which highlights their these increasingly powerful sub- exchanges with partner cities, realizing those free trade national actors will have on for- and build self-serving institutions dent on their cities to catalyse contribution to nationwide pros- eign and economic policy, partic- like the C40. This independence agreements.” growth and productivity. In Austra- perity. lia, for example, Melbourne alone While there is no doubt that ularly in contrast with the central is evident across the world – in —Daniel Andrews

76 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 77 city-states can be effective con- eign policy or security strategy, tributors of economic growth, it is important for them to under- both Minister Puri and Premier stand their role and remit within Andrews also discussed chal- the larger national context. lenges that subnational entities As the global community in- Shaping a New Ethos: The may face in the global arena. The cludes new levels of government primary concern revolved around in geopolitics, there will no doubt Role of Emerging Powers in city-states’ role in foreign and be an adjustment period. Howev- security affairs. Minister Puri be- er, it seemed clear from the Rai- the G20 Day 2 lieves that cities should refrain sina Dialogue that the benefit of from entering arenas that have local, self-arranged solutions that typically been reserved for the na- city-states can provide are well tion-state. However, as cities be- worth the disruption. “When it comes to he emergence of the G20 time, stated that the next meet- come involved in nationwide eco- MODERATOR nomic and social affairs, they will –Pablo Aabir Das economic processes, has often been traced by ing of the G20 would be focused inevitably step into the domain of whatever terms of analysts, commentators and on finding solutions to the finan- Akshay Mathur, DIRECTOR, RESEARCH T AND ANALYSIS, GATEWAY HOUSE academics to the midpoint of the cial crisis. Given the seriousness foreign policy (as we have already engagement the Central seen with the Paris Agreement). 2008-2009 financial crisis know of the global credit crunch, the Premier Andrews’ suggested Government negotiates, colloquially as “The Great Reces- Heads of States of all G20 nations PANELLISTS that subnational actors in foreign those have to be sion”. In a generation plagued were present at the Washington by “fake news” and “alternative summit, and a decision was made Anil Sooklal, DEPUTY DIRECTOR affairs must be part of a clear implemented by the GENERAL OF THE DEPARTMENT OF power structure that delineates facts”, it is not surprising that to continue to use the body as INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND States.” COOPERATION, SOUTH AFRICA the responsibilities of different the inception of the collective a means for dialogue amongst members operating within the —Hardeep Singh Puri has become muddled. The G20, the self-appointed world leaders. Gustavo Martinez, MANAGING in fact, came into formation in Since that meeting, the G20 has DIRECTOR, CONSEJO ARGENTINO PARA LAS same sphere. In other words, if RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES city-states become independent 1999, with either former Canadi- become the primary pillar of the enough to pursue their own for- an Prime Minister Paul Martin or geo-economic global governance Dawisson Lopes, PROFESSOR OF former German Finance Minis- architecture, acting as the de-fac- INTERNATIONAL AND COMPARATIVE POLITICS, THE FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF MINAS GERAIS ter Hans Eichel deserving credit to “economic steering committee for being the architect of the or- of the world” as stated by Dr. Ak- Gabriela Ramos, OECD CHIEF OF STAFF AND SHERPA TO THE G20 ganisation, according to various shay Mathur during the Shaping sources. Originally envisioned as a New Ethos of Geo-politics and a meeting of central bankers, the Geo-economics panel during Rai- membership was decided almost sina 2018. arbitrarily. An apocryphal anec- The grouping has done semi- dote attributes the composition of nal work on a number of important the group to the Deputy Finance matters, including global bench- Minister of Germany and the Dep- marks, securities and market uty Treasury Secretary of the Unit- regulations, and interconnected ed States, who apparently went payment systems. Yet, the group through a list of nations marking has not limited itself to econom- them with a “yes” or “no” based ic issues. In the past decade, the on perceived economic power. scope of the G20 has grown to It is true, that the importance incorporate key cross-disciplinary of the G20 as a global governance issues such as climate change, body changed in October 2008, trade conflicts, and the Sustain- when George W. Bush, the Pres- able Development Goals. Even ident of the United States at that issues of global security, once left

78 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 79 to the purview of the United Na- It is important to note, how- tergovernmental economic body, economies in order to “tilt the bal- tions Security Council, have found ever, that the G20 is not perfect. comprised of the world’s richest ance” towards equitable policies their way to the G20. Ms. Gabri- The collective is made up largely nations, the OECD has more than and “coordination and reinforce- ella Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff of high and middle-income na- six decades of operational, im- ment” of certain geo-economic during her remarks at the panel, tions, with India being the only plementational, and monitoring positions amongst developing cited the 2013 G20 summit as one member that has a GDP per Capi- experience. The G20, has leaned nations. These are steps in the of the primary forums that helped ta under $10,000 . Africa remains on the OECD for organisational right direction, but it is important begin dialogue about the Syrian drastically underrepresented in support since 2008, and the rela- to note that the emerging bloc Civil War amongst the various par- the grouping, with South Africa tionship has deepened between can often be overridden by sheer ties involved. acting as the sole spokesperson the two entities over the past few strength of numbers. One of the criticisms that has for the continent. While there are years. Yet, in the eyes of many, As Mr. Anil Sooklal stated been levied against the G20 has a number of multilateral and inter- the co-dependency is symptom- during the panel, the world does been that it has become too broad governmental organisations invit- atic of the exclusivity of the G20. not “have a better platform at the in its scope by venturing into ar- ed to participate in G20 summits, Whether we like it or not, While the collective is touted as present time given the weak state “The G20 is often remarked eas such as development and they act only as observers. They the coming together of the a more egalitarian form of global of the global multilateral system”. as an institution or as security. Yet, in a changing world, cannot provide substantive input BRICS was an important governance, many of the policy The G20 is a step in the right di- a forum that is only an with shifting political and econom- into the policy decisions that are development not just for inputs it receives are from a body rection. It is only a step, however. informal grouping, and ic power dynamics, the old global made – with the exception of one that represents the world’s eco- Symbolic inclusion of the emerg- governance architecture has prov- organisation – the Organisation for the five BRICS countries but nomic elite. ing and developing world through sometimes, including en itself to insufficient. By being Economic Cooperation and Devel- also for the global South. With only seven members an arbitrary “yes” and “no” pro- here in India, its value is more inclusive than the elitist G7 opment (OECD). We champion the interest that can be loosely classified as cess, decided by two men, is not undermined because it and more agile in its decision-mak- While the G20 lacks a per- of the developing South emerging economies, the global enough. If it truly wishes to be the is not obvious what its ing process than the cumbersome manent secretariat that can help south still has achieved only token next multilateral iteration of global United Nations General body, the provide research and implementa- in shaping this new global representation in the collective. governance, the G20 must take influence could be on the G20 has proved itself as the ideal tion support, there are some that dynamic that is emerging. As Mr. Gustavo Martinez stated steps to ensure equitable repre- design of policy especially in body for setting the global gover- argue that the OECD is in many during the panel, “the represen- sentation and contribution from all —Anil Sooklal various governments.” nance agenda. ways the G20’s secretariat. An in- tation and the role of the devel- regions and classes of the worlds. oping countries in the G20 must —Akshay Mathur be a subject of debate”. Mr. Mar- –Aparajit Pandey tinez went on to suggest allianc- es amongst the G20’s emerging

80 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 81 are increasing. This has led to over of the Cold War-era notion of “A free and open Indo- increased militarisation of the “big power politics”. The US eco- Pacific cannot be realized region. Further, technological ad- nomic leverage is diminishing with vances such as quantum com- its exit from the TPP. It has not yet by one country alone. It Towards a New Framework puting, innovative manufacturing, put forward a comprehensive al- is necessary for partners hypersonics, energy weapons ternative to the Chinese econom- sharing ideas to work for a Free and Open and unmanned systems are likely ic strategy for the region. China is together to advance relevant to lead to the introduction of new much more outward looking than Indo-Pacific Day 2 weapons globally. By 2035, more it used to be, projecting power initiatives”. countries in this region would well into the Indian Ocean and be- —Kentaro Sonoura have acquired these technologies yond into the Middle East through and military capabilities. In this its linkages and investments via emerging scenario, there has to OBOR. The sheer scale of its free and open Indo-Pacific taining a rule-based order in an MODERATOR be a significant provision for an military modernisation efforts with enhanced connectivi- environment of deep division and overarching policy framework that raises concerns. However, the Aty and rule of law through the massive power politics among Smita Prakash, EDITOR, ANI NEWS supports the UNCLOS global con- idea of free and open Indo-Pacif- strengthened maritime cooper- big powers. Third, to nurture the vention in fostering free and safe ic or rule-based Indo-Pacific order ation has become a driving stra- role of leading liberal democracies navigation. is not aiming at limiting Chinese tegic concept for the regional such as India, Japan and the US PANELLISTS In the wake of the turbulence powers or its ambitious projects stakeholders. The stakeholders in ensuring that the foundation being created by the Chinese uni- akin to the post-World War II Mar- are working towards devising a of the framework evolve from Kentaro Sonoura, ADVISOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER (NATIONAL SECURITY), JAPAN lateral, assertive behaviour and shall Plan. The opposition may be framework to catalyse sustain- the current bilateral, trilateral and the increasing uncertainty of US against the Chinese behaviour of able investment and infrastruc- minilateral relationships to a high- Serge Segura, AMBASSADOR FOR THE OCEANS, FRANCE commitment to uphold rule-based unbridled display of muscle pow- ture projects in the region that can ly inclusive networked approach. regional order, the new concept er in the region. The objective of facilitate seamless movement of There is an urgent need for Shafiah Fifi Muhibat, HEAD OF DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” the Indo-Pacific framework has to goods, services, capital, tech- policy framework to guide the CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL is gaining more salience. This as- be that all countries, big or small, nology and people in one of the relations of the countries in the STUDIES piration necessitates the passing are able to have the freedom of world’s busiest trade and trans- Indo-Pacific region. After all, the Tsutomu Kikuchi, PROFESSOR, port corridors. region is home to close to 60 per- AOYAMA GAKUIN UNIVERSITY The panel discussion, “New cent of the world’s population, , Ram Madhav, NATIONAL GENERAL Framework for a Free and Open 45-50 percent of container traffic SECRETARY, BJP AND DIRECTOR, INDIA Indo-Pacific”, drew out three es- pass through its waterways, and FOUNDATION sentials for drafting a framework close to 50 percent of the world’s Kelly Magsamen, VICE PRESIDENT, that will facilitate freedom of energy resources are found here. NATIONAL SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL navigation, secure infrastructure There are also the imperatives of POLICY, CENTRE FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS investments, and promote peace- security and freedom of naviga- ful settlements of disputes for tion. The Indian Ocean regional inclusive economic growth. First, countries have sustained trade re- to put in place an overarching in- lations with other nations outside stitutional mechanism to connect the region; however, within the the “Indo” to the “Pacific” for a region, the trade and commerce is stronger sense of the Indo-Pacific less than 10 percent—suggesting region transcending conventional a huge potential for intraregional geographical boundaries. Second, cooperation. to foster shared understanding by The trade corridors have over involving the medium and small- 10 choke points, terrorism and size countries located in strate- piracy are on the rise and the gically important areas for sus- disputes in the South China Sea

82 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 83 Fragile World: Preventing a Scorched Earth Day 2

ver the past decade, the era of now where renewables are climate change debate has much cheaper than conventional MODERATOR changed dramatically in In- power”. Shikha Bhasin, PROGRAMME LEAD- O TECHNOLOGY, TRADE AND FINANCE, COUNCIL dia. Historically, India regarded the The cost effectiveness of re- ON ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT & WATER push for a low carbon transition newable energy has been en- by developed nations, as another thusiastically greeted by both form of elitist first world thinking. the public sector and the private PANELLISTS The stance held by Indian climate sector. ReNew Power, has trans- Geraldine Ang, POLICY ANALYST, OECD negotiators was that nations that formed itself into India’s leading had used thermal power to fuel renewable energy company and Sean Kidney, CEO, CLIMATE BONDS choice on economics and on se- Japan-India- Australia cooperation INITIATIVE curity issues. integrate existing institutions like their industrial revolutions, had no is currently valued at more than a A free and open Indo-Pacific the ASEAN and the IORA. right to lecture developing coun- billion dollars. Tata Power, a sub- Sanjeev Sanyal, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC ADVISOR, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, INDIA cannot be realised by one coun- The architecture of the frame- tries on how they should conduct sidiary of India’s largest conglom- try alone and it is therefore nec- work has to strive to meet the their economic development. erate, has seen a significant fi- Cleo Paskal, ASSOCIATE FELLOW IN THE Since the 2015 Paris Agreement nancial turnaround as it embraces ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES essary for partners sharing ideas enormous infrastructure demand DEPARTMENT, CHATHAM HOUSE to work together to advance rel- in the Indo-Pacific region by pro- on climate change, however, In- the renewable revolution. And the evant initiatives. India’s strong moting habits of cooperation dia has changed its perspective. Indian government recently an- Sumant Sinha, CEO, RENEW POWER historical ties with both Asia and among all the stakeholders. It This is partially due to the fact nounced that it expected to have Guy-Cedric Werlings, COUNTRY East Africa is important to create has to work to liberalise the flow that India’s perception of itself 225 GW of renewable energy REPRESENTATIVE, INTERNATIONAL SOLAR ALLIANCE synergies with ASEAN countries. of people and goods safely to ex- has changed. It no longer views capacity by 2022 – a twenty-two Japan has helped improve infra- pand the economic zone and build itself as a standard bearer for the percent increase from the goal it structure optimisation of physical a foundation for the economic developed world. There is a feel- has set itself previously. However, “India has to be at the heart assests like ports, railroads, roads prosperity of the entire region. ing now that the nation is ready to there is one very large obstacle to and human resource development assume the mantle of global lead- India’s low carbon energy transi- of this and if you are looking in the region. It has also promoted –Gayathri Iyer ership given its growing geopolit- tion – the health of its power dis- at regional architecture in institutional connectivity through ical and geo-economic heft. This tribution sector. particular regional economic optimised customs procedures. is not the only reasons for the As Mr. Sinha stated during the architecture there is a giant India-Japan can therefore help in- change in attitude amongst policy panel - “I think the biggest prob- tegrate other regional countries makers, however. As Mr. Sumant lem in India right now in some gaping hole, APEC and India to meet the vision of a connect- Sinha, CEO of ReNew Power, said ways is the off-taker risk issue… is not being a member of ed Indo-Pacific first. India and Ja- during the Fragile World: Prevent- we sell all of our power to this APEC”. pan also have to ensure that the ing a scorched earth panel during thing called the distribution com- minilateral collaborations such as Raisina 2018 - the world has now pany and that distribution com- —Kelly Magsamen Japan-India- US cooperation and “moved from the era when re- pany is owned mostly by state newables were expensive to an governments”. India’s state-

84 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 85 owned distribution companies portion of the value chain, while (DISCOMS) have been bailed out allowing state governments to by the government three times retain control over transmission in the past fifteen years, and de- and distribution. It also allowed spite the promise of new reforms, state governments to set electric- it seems that the sector is headed ity rates for consumers. In order towards a fourth bail out. Accord- to appease sections of its voting ing to the latest estimates, Indian base, state governments have set DISCOMS have 4.22 Lakh Crore low rates for the agrarian sector – of debt on their financial sheets which continues to employ large – a figure that continues to grow portion of India’s total populace. due to the fact that a significant Consequentially, DISCOMS have majority of these public entities had to buy power from private are operating at a loss. companies at high rates and sell “Today our total installed The cause for the poor health the electricity to a large percent- capacity is 330 giga watts of Indian DISCOMS can be traced age of its consumers at rates low- of all energy which, by the to the 2003 National Electricity er than what it was bought for. In way, was China’s capacity Act. In a bid to bring reform to order to make up for their oper- the power sector, the govern- ating losses, DISCOMS have re- 17 years ago”. tribution company issues. As a tion. Gujrat is the only major Indi- ment dismantled the previous sorted to taking out loans, which —Sumant Sinha result of the poor state of India’s an state within which DISCOMS iteration of public sector power has only further exacerbated the electrical grids, approximate- have remained profitable over entities which were responsi- problem, as they now have to pay ly twenty percent of electricity past decade. In 2005, the state ble for all three portions of the interest payments on those loans, is lost in the consumer delivery passed legislation that created a electricity generation value chain while they still continue to oper- process – which means that DIS- hybrid model with a dedicated grid – production, transmission and ate at a loss. COMS have to buy a twenty per- for farmers to get subsidised elec- distribution. It allowed private Consumer rates are not the cent more power in order to meet tricity for certain parts of the day. players to enter the production sole cause of Indian power dis- consumer demands. Additionally, A separate grid was created for the DISCOMS are often poorly households and the private sec- run – both operationally and fi- tor, allowing DISCOMS to charge nancially. Inevitably, DISCOMS rates that kept them profitable have had to delay payments or in without upsetting their rural voter “More and more de-risking extreme cases, renege on pow- base. The man who oversaw that er purchase agreements as they reform was none other than Prime instruments are available face pressures to continue to op- Minister Narendra Modi, who was on the market. However, erate under duress. The delays chief minister of the state at the for many countries with in payment and defaults on con- time. Given the continued failure abundant solar resources it tracts are the “off-taker” risk that of public sector distribution com- Mr. Sinha was referring to in his panies nationally, it might behove is difficult to access those quote. For a private independent the Prime Minister to take a page instruments”. power producer looking to invest out of his own book, and apply the —Guy-Cedric Werlings in a renewable energy project in Gujrat strategy to the rest of India. India, the “off-taker” risk can act as a significant deterrent. –Aparajit Pandey & It is possible for the Indian gov- Aurko Mahapatra ernment to resolve its DISCOM is- sue – and it has to look no further than its own backyard for the solu-

86 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 87 From Cold War to Hot Peace Day 2

he title of this panel of the toral College system aside), he is Raisina Dialogue – “From authoritarian, with little regard for MODERATOR Cold War to Hot Peace” – the norms and courtesies of par- Asle Toje, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, T NOBEL PEACE PRIZE RESEARCH AND was, whether by accident or de- ty politics in a liberal democracy. INFORMATION, THE NORWEGIANNOBEL sign, an indicator that contempo- Trump is an example of the ‘hybrid’ INSTITUTE rary global politics is far removed leader, elected to office through a PANELLISTS from how it was between the democratic process but exhibiting end of the Second World War authoritarian traits. His election Matthew Rojansky, DIRECTOR, KENNAN INSTITUTE, WOODROW WILSON Nationalism in Asia has unseating him democratically re- ing, as it does, between Europe and the fall of the Berlin Wall. also exposed the deep schisms in INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS That era was marked by distinct American politics, with the Dem- tended to be more in the mains, by far, a distant prospect. and the Middle East; between differences between capitalism ocratic Party being perceived as Julie B. Sheetz, GLOBAL FORCE So why have the Russians will- authoritarianism and democracy; PLANNER, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF form of what you would ingly elected strongman Putin? between being a nominally west- and communism, between East a club of the Washington-Wall DEFENSE, UNITED STATES consider re-emerging powers and West, between democracy Street elites, and the Republican The answer lies in the fact that ern power and an ally of illiberal Elena Lazarou, SENIOR POLICY Russians may prefer, as panellist powers such as Russia. Like Rus- and authoritarianism. The current Party one of the hard-working but ANALYST, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY who are more confident. RESEARCH SERVICE Matthew Rojanksy pointed out, a sia, Turkey’s hybridity is linked to milieu is different, characterised unrecognised blue collar workers —Tanvi Madan by hybrid models and modes of – an almost total (but perhaps in- system and a president that deliv- the ascendance to power of one Marian Vidaurri, SECTION CHIEF, ers promptly (whether on geopol- strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, conduct; the once well-defined evitable) about-turn for American POLITICAL ANALYSIS, ORGANIZATION OF line between democracy and au- politics from 70 years ago. This AMERICAN STATES itics or social issues) rather than first as prime minister and then as what they perceive as an “unac- president. Erdogan has eroded thoritarianism, at least in devel- change, in turn, was fuelled by the Tanvi Madan, DIRECTOR - THE INDIA oped states, for example, is now rising influence of social media on PROJECT, BROOKINGS countable, ineffective, non-trans- much of Turkey’s traditionally sec- blurred in many countries. Some voter perceptions and choices parent” government. But just like ular Kemalist character while con- continue to promote globalisation which the Trump campaign deft- Trump, there is also an additional tinuing to seek leverage over the abroad while cultivating national- ly leveraged (perhaps with a little factor at play when it comes to European Union. Under his leader- ist constituencies at home. This help from the Kremlin, according Russia’s fondness for Vladimir Pu- ship, Turkey has pivoted to Russia hybridity, one can argue, is one to ongoing investigations). tin: demographics. A large section even though – as a NATO member of the principal sources of global If Trump is one example of the of Russian society is elderly, with – it hosts American nuclear weap- disruptions and no four countries new hybrid leader, Russian Pres- vivid memories of both commu- ons on its soil. This author had illustrate this better than the Unit- ident Vladimir Putin is another, nist rule and the chaos that en- once written: “The canary in the ed States, Russia, Turkey, and perhaps more striking one. While sued following the collapse of the coal mine is Turkey. Its trajectory China. one can hardly compare Putin’s Soviet empire. Delivery and demo- will serve as the best indicator of The election of Donald Trump election to Trump’s – both Mos- graphics are key to understanding the future of the liberal world or- as the 45th president of the US cow and Washington would be why Russia would prefer a hybrid der in the years to come.” This tra- was one such disruptive event. insulted, in their own ways, with leader. jectory, in turn, will be determined While Trump was democratically the comparison – his popularity Turkey’s hybridity is many by whether Turkey can resolve the elected (quibbles about the Elec- among Russians suggests that quintessential, that country stand- growing contradictions in its own

88 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 89 polity and around how it engages this gamble failed as miserably as with the world. it did illustrates how the hybridity A definitive example of this phenomenon continues to disrupt hybridity co-existing and guiding a global systems, popular psyche, government is that of China. Since and political ethos. Xi Jinping’s election as president China also illustrates how na- Nuclear Unpredictability: in 2013, the People’s Republic has tionalism and globalisation can Managing the Global Nuclear taken a significantly sharp turn to- co-exist in a single polity. wards authoritarianism and away Framework Day 3 from the “collective leadership” –Abhijnan Rej principles of the Chinese Com- munist Party of the past. With the removal of term limits for Xi in March 2018, China has become, “So whether it is youth oncerns over how the global gauge the future of the global nu- MODERATOR as a recent article in The Econo- versus an older generation nuclear framework can sus- clear framework based on current mist put it, a dictatorship. Never or whether it is even tain and function efficiently trends. Dhruva Jaishankar, FELLOW, C FOREIGN POLICY, BROOKINGS INDIA are as old as nuclear weapons With repeated tests of nuclear before in the history of modern something like nationalism, China has the country been more technology itself. In 1963, Robert devices and missile systems, it is integrated with the rest of the populism, protectionism McNamara, then US Secretary of North Korea that today no doubt PANELLISTS world. Not only that, Xi’s China versus some sort of Defence, had written a memo to presents the gravest challenge to Feodor Voytolovsky, DIRECTOR, actively seeks to promote its own idealized liberalist globalism President John F. Kennedy, noting the framework. The international PRIMAKOV NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE version of globalisation abroad, that in addition to the four coun- community appears to be divid- OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL whatever, that it seems to RELATIONS principally through the Belt and tries already declared as nuclear ed on the solution to the North Road Initiative. The long gamble me is a false dichotomy”. powers then—the US, the Soviet Korean problem, and whether Wendy Ruth Sherman, SENIOR COUNSELOR, ALBRIGHT STONEBRIDGE GROUP of the West, when it came to Chi- —Matthew Rojansky Union, the UK and France—four complete denuclearisation should na, was that as China goes global, more were to acquire declared be the end goal of a prospective Shen Dingli, PROFESSOR, FUDAN it will become democratic. That nuclear weapons capabilities. deal with Pyongyang. Consider- UNIVERSITY These countries were China, Isra- ing the efforts that Kim Jong-un’s Rory Medcalf, HEAD, NATIONAL el, India and Sweden. McNamara regime has made to acquire an SECURITY COLLEGE, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL calculated that by 1973, a total of operational, costly nuclear weap- UNIVERSITY 12 countries would be in posses- ons programme, it is unlikely that Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, sion of nuclear weapons. Pyongyang will agree to complete SENIOR FELLOW AND HEAD OF THE NUCLEAR AND SPACE POLICY INITIATIVE, OBSERVER Similar bleak projections have denuclearisation without signifi- RESEARCH FOUNDATION been made on several occasions cant concessions, including a pos- throughout history. Fortunately, sible reunification of the Korean none of them have come true, peninsula under Kim Jong-un’s and credit is due the internation- leadership. This, of course, will al community for their concerted have significant geopolitical rami- efforts in upholding the agenda of fications. A deal without denucle- nuclear non-proliferation and arms arisation as its last stage, on the control. other hand, will leave the global However, the global nuclear nuclear framework dented forev- framework still faces many chal- er. While speculations of conse- lenges. Often, bleak predictions quential horizontal proliferation motivate the international com- of nuclear weapons have been munity to collectively ensure that labelled “far-fetched,” there are such predictions do not come hints that Japan could consider true. This essay attempts to nuclearising.

90 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 91 As the global nuclear frame- gramme, tightens the verification work continues to grapple with the measures of the JCPOA further, daunting North Korean challenge, and extends the terms of the deal it is equally important to consider indefinitely, removing the “sun- other challenges, e.g. the threat set” clauses. Even with this addi- to the Joint Comprehensive Plan tional deal—chances of which ma- of Action (JCPOA), which Iran and terialising are feeble—the case of the P5+1 countries negotiated in Iran, in principle, will allow states 2015; the failing US–Russia arms to possess enrichment technolo- control pacts; the aggressive nu- gy and be on the nuclear “thresh- clear posturing with deployment old.” This is another challenge for of tactical nuclear weapons for nuclear non-proliferation. warfighting; the technological ad- Meanwhile, the arms-control vancements in delivery systems, agenda of the framework has “Neither the US Congress such as the hypersonic vehicles suffered severe setbacks in the nor Europe like ultimatums, that could lead to a fresh wave of last decade. The existing mecha- they believe they are free arms race in the world; and the nisms, primarily negotiated by the actors and have a say in all long-ignored agenda of global nu- US with the Soviet Union during clear disarmament. the Cold War—and with Russia of this”. Challenges to the future of the since—are now breaking down. —Wendy Ruth Sherman JCPOA is a significant threat to There is a new wave of nuclear of negotiating new arms control to them instead. Unfortunately, the framework’s agenda of nucle- warhead modernisation across mechanisms negligible. there are today as many revision- ar non-proliferation. US President the board, led primarily by the The framework has been fur- ist actors as status-quo nations in Donald Trump seeks an addition- US. Coupled with the ongoing ther weakened by the explicit the international system. As long al agreement that broadens the and rapid development of various global divide over the third critical as the system itself continues to mandate of the deal to include modern weapons delivery sys- agenda of nuclear disarmament. be in flux, the international com- Iran’s long-range missile pro- tems, this makes the possibility Middle-powers and non-nuclear munity cannot act as a cohesive weapon states of the Treaty on unit in creating new machineries the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear that address the challenges dis- Weapons (NPT) have sought to cussed here. create new mechanisms to ad- dress the lack of progress made –Arka Biswas on the agenda in question. So far, “But equally there are signs however, they have ignored how that the established order is the insecurities that affect both fraying. North Korea’s regular great and weak powers due to the volatility in the global order nuclear and missile tests have have dramatically increased the raised concerns naturally salience of nuclear deterrence. around the world”. The global nuclear framework is facing tremendous challenges —Dhruva Jaishankar on all three of its primary agendas of nuclear non-proliferation, arms control, and disarmament. The existing machineries of the frame- work are unable to address these challenges, and often contribute

92 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 93 interests between Iran, India, and nectivity agenda. Like other policy Afghanistan, which, importantly, areas, nation states are no longer are not against the interests of the sole actors, but also sub-na- others. tional units (cities and provinces). Contested Connectivity: The methodology Much con- Critically, resource mobilisation tention today also revolves around cannot involve only state capital, Economic Tracks – Political the standards being set, process- which pales in comparison to the es being followed, and rules being annual $1.7 trillion requirement Cargo? Day 3 applied in this area of connectiv- for infrastructure development ity. Vijay Gokhale stressed this across Asia-Pacific. Effectively, very point: “it is nobody’s case private sector and private finance that infrastructure shouldn’t be will need to become greater and built. The issue is how it is to be functional parts of the infrastruc- he emerging “worldwide railways, highways, ports, pipe- “We do not consider the MODERATOR built.” Connectivity projects must ture connectivity story. As Nisha webs” of trade and invest- lines) and Chinese firms “going be demand-driven, consultative, Biswal commented, “connectivity emerging markets as ment are once again bring- out.” There are other layers en- Michael Fullilove, EXECUTIVE and inclusive; they must respect is more than just infrastructure… threats to the word trade”. T DIRECTOR, LOWY INSTITUTE ing change to relative power bal- visioned (notably at the financial sovereignty and territorial integri- it is about creating that econom- ances in the current international and policy levels) and an inevitably ty; they must be transparent, free, ic activity… That is going to be —István Mikola system. These economic tracks expanding remit (both geographi- PANELLISTS and open. Amid report of Chinese done through the private sector… reflect, and further engender, cally and in areas of engagement). Vijay Keshav Gokhale, SECRETARY “debt-trap diplomacy” and con- through people-to-people and changing geographies of trade A lack of clarity on the bigger pic- (ECONOMIC RELATIONS), MINISTRY OF cerns of control in BRI projects, business-to-business exchang- flows, security architecture, and ture notwithstanding, there is also EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, INDIA it is critical to discuss whether an es.” The impact of non-market re- political influence. China’s Belt a lack of clarity on the functional- Seyed Kazem Sajjadpour, DEPUTY emerging power is creating an un- sources on the ground is a related and Road Initiative (BRI) is one ity of assets being planned and FOREIGN MINISTER, IRAN sustainable ecosystem of depen- point of debate: does the invest- such contemporary blueprint that created under the BRI umbrella István Mikola, MINISTER OF STATE dency, and how to ensure that the ment sufficiently answer to the is resulting in a reorientation of (Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port is a FOR SECURITY POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL setting and pursuit of rules and aspirations of many? the present power dispensation poster child). Are these projects COOPERATION, HUNGARY norms remains a multilateral exer- Balancing connectivity, bal- into one that establishes Beijing commercially viable, or do they Zalmay Khalilzad, FORMER cise. The stakeholders A third ele- ancing power Inevitably, a bricks as a dominant hub. A focus on the represent China with the oppor- AMBASSADOR OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE ment increasingly grabbing media and mortar conversation on con- UNITED NATIONS AND COUNSELLOR, CENTER BRI is particularly pertinent, given tunity to convert loss-making proj- FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES and dialogue space is the question nectivity can only occur against China’s increasing role in multiple ects into strategic assets? of who is driving forward the con- the strategic backdrop of what is narratives that define the global Syed Kazem Sajjadpour iden- Nisha Biswal, PRESIDENT, USIBC governance space: globalisation, tified two concepts that can development finance, sustain- prove useful in identifying and able development, innovation and implementing win-win projects: technology. “bridge” and “commonality.” The idea of “connectivity” The first refers to the intention and connectivity projects today of physical connectivity, and the are being debated along multiple second, to the motivation behind axes: concept, intent, scope, ap- such projects. “Chabahar is an ex- proach, impact, response. ample of real connectivity,” as per The asset Sajjadpour. Chabahar is a physical One layer of conversation is oc- link between India, Iran, and Cen- curring over the implementation tral Asia, and a conceptual bridge of connectivity concepts on the between the development, secu- ground. The BRI, for instance, is rity, and stability of Afghanistan primarily being rolled out through and the surrounding regions. It infrastructure connectivity (roads, also represents commonality of

94 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 95 The Afghan Poser Day 3

he war in Afghanistan is now 2018, the government made an entering its 17th year and offer for the most comprehen- MODERATOR Tthere seems to be no end sive peace talks so far – President Yalda Hakim, HOST, BBC WORLD NEWS in sight. The United States has Ashraf Ghani invited the Taliban spent over $100 billion on training for a formal peace negotiation, PANELLISTS effectively a rising power with in- BRI participant. As Istavan Mikola the Afghan security forces since without any preconditions. This 2001. However, today the Taliban means the group will not only be General (Retd.) V.K. Singh, creasing means to shape a world clarified, “We believe that increas- MINISTER OF STATE FOR EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, that is in transition towards a mul- ing global competition generates continues to exert influence or recognised as a ‘political party’ INDIA tipolar world. To reiterate, connec- global growth and this means in- control over 40 percent of Afghan but all its previous demands will Hamid Karzai, FORMER PRESIDENT, tivity itself is a vehicle reorganis- creasing opportunities to diversify districts. The Afghan government be open to negotiation, including AFGHANISTAN ing the international order. Each of economic relations, especially to and its people are frantic to find the release of imprisoned Taliban a solution to the seemingly in- fighters and a review of the Af- Igor Morgulov, DEPUTY MINISTER the layers of conversation identi- smaller countries like Hungary.” OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE RUSSIAN fied above reflects how econom- The existence of multiple initia- tractable conflict that is now in ghan Constitution. FEDERATION ic tracks can carry political cargo tives could effectively reinforce stalemate. Over the years, there Understandably, the decision – whether through the creation more inclusive and multi-direction- has been a growing consensus on may be viewed with some scep- of strategic assets; through the al connectivity – but this can only the importance of beginning a dia- ticism, given the violence and de- unilateral setting of rules and pro- occur if there is balance of power logue with the Taliban as the inter- struction the Taliban has wrought cess that can create dependency that enforces an open and multi- national forces have been unable to the country in the last two de- to militarily defeat them. In Janu- cades. The fact that the US went “There are positive aspects and expand political influence; or polar system. Therefore, lastly, through a dedicated state-led pur- competing competencies are in ary 2018, a discussion titled ‘The to Afghanistan to defeat the Tali- obviously we can’t be against suit that can leverage economic focus. “We need to be mindful Afghan Poser’ at the Raisina Dia- ban and is now open to reconciling hard infrastructure, one can’t objectives for larger foreign policy of our own relative power posi- logue echoed a similar sentiment. with them is a bitter pill. However, be against connectivity, one goals. tions,” noted Zalmay Khalilzad, Former Afghan President Hamid negotiating with the Taliban is not Karzai and the Russian Deputy a new idea and enjoys widespread can’t be indifferent to the It is no surprise, then, that con- and it is here that partnerships are nectivity is becoming a contested effectively coming into play – both Minister of Foreign Affairs, Igor support amongst the war-weary benefits that that brings to space. Already, competing narra- through the process of diversifica- Morgoluv agreed that there was public. The most recent peace of- populations around the world. tives are emerging. The BRI today tion of partners, and the attempt no military solution to Afghani- fering comes after months of de- faces, for instance, the Indo-Japan towards bilateral, plurilateral, and stan’s current predicament, and liberation and consensus building —Zalmay Khalilzad Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, and multilateral convergence. that the only possible resolution in the country. The National Unity multiple iterations of the “Indo-Pa- to the crisis was a peaceful recon- Government held long delibera- cific.” Second, competing vantage –Ritika Passi ciliation between the government tions and dialogues with different points exist. India’s stance to- and the armed groups. political figures, tribal leaders and wards the BRI, for instance, is not Kabul had offered to negotiate civil society members and found the same as Hungary’s, an eager with those who lay down their overwhelming support for reach- weapons. However, in February ing out to the Taliban with a politi-

96 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 97 Ministerial Address: Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defence, Indonesia

istinguished Minister, keynote speakers, dis- lamities, border area offences, piracy and poaching of tinguished ladies and gentlemen, the organis- natural resources and minerals, arms smuggling,ep- Ding committee of ORF, thank you so much. It idemic and pandemic diseases, drug abuse, cyber is such a privilege for me to be able to be here and war and intelligence threats. at the same time to deliver this speech focusing on One of Indonesia’s main concerns in building our cal settlement. in the early months of 2018 that seeking commonalities in order to address uncertain- national defence strategy is how we should establish The Taliban, however, have killed hundreds of people, Pres- ty. That is the thematic topic of this discussion. Allow stability, security, and peace in the region. This is an stated their intent to negotiate ident Trump rejected the possi- me also to extend my sincere gratitude and appreci- integral part of Indonesia’s national interest—con- and talk directly with the US and bility of initiating a dialogue with ation for the warm welcome and the kind hospitality stantly anticipating any potential threat in the region, not the government in Kabul, the group, promising to finish the extended to me by the Government of India and the and the way these challenges are to be tackled. By which they view as a puppet re- war that “nobody else has been Minister of Foreign Affairs of India, and the organis- promoting and maintaining this security, we can real- gime. The militant group believes able to finish”. Such an erratic ing committee of this esteemed event, the Raisina ise Indonesian national interests. Afghanis can secure the future of US strategy is highly detrimental Dialogue 2018. It is Indonesia’s view that the nations in this re- Afghanistan and resolve the exist- to the peace effort. The Taliban Indonesia feels this event is a very important fo- gion, and all nations in the world, should strive to ing crisis only when, and if the US does not need any more incentive rum to strengthen productive and interactive com- strengthen our similarities and decrease our differ- leaves the country. to continue fighting and the US’ munication and dialogue in order to collectively seek ences and divides. We have to be united, and pro- It is probably only a matter public statements against peace common ground to address any challenges and prob- mote cooperation and collaboration among nations of time before Washington and talks will make reconciliation more lems which may threaten sovereignty and security in to realise our common objectives and noblest goals, “Despite the type of Kabul will consider direct nego- difficult. If Afghanistan is to see this region. This is in line with the promise of every and establish a more prosperous, secure, and stable economic power that China tiations with the Taliban. How- peace, the US and Kabul must re- government to provide its people with security and region, and world. ever, since the election of Don- member to not vacillate between prosperity, and to turn uncertainty to certainty, as Since the establishment of the United Nations 73 wields today, despite all the ald Trump, the American-Afghan their plan A (military solution) and they promise during their election campaigns. years ago, every nation in the world has come to the assistance that they are trying strategy has been both confus- plan B (political solution) when Our strategic landscape is now more unpredict- consensus that they are committed to peaceful reso- to give to Pakistan the type ing and contradictory. The Trump they see fit. They need to make able than ever, leading to the creation of uncertainty. lution of differences, and non-interference in another of assistance dependence administration’s strategy in the a commitment and exhibit the will There is no barrier between nations any more, and country’s interests and affairs. This universal value country has focused on ramping to reconcile with the groups that we are now more dependent upon each other. Future has been reflected in the United Nations Charter that that Pakistan has with US far up military pressure on the Taliban are willing to negotiate, lay down threats are no longer like the conventional threats, has been endorsed by every nation in the world. surpasses what China can while bolstering Afghans’ fighting arms and be productive members war among nations, but rather are now realistic Now, it is time that we have to be united to realise do”. strength and capabilities. This ap- of the Afghan democratic pro- threats. These could be ideological conflicts between that our civilized world is filled with more peaceful, proach is unique as it does not in- cess. A successful end to the Af- certain groups, i.e., the marginalized groups, that may secure, and prosperous nations. To realise this end, —General (Retd.) V.K. Singh clude a timeline for the withdraw- ghan war may yet be possible if, use these ideologies to boost their own interests. we have to consider the very useful maxim that says al of US troops from the country to begin with, there can be a con- I have spoken to my counterparts in many forums that we have to know our condition—our strengths -- something the Obama adminis- sensus on what success is. about the fact that this dynamic leads to a wide va- and weaknesses, as well as analyse the strategic tration had attempted. Yet, after riety of very real threats including terrorism and rad- landscape in our region. As such, whenever there is a wave of deadly attacks in Kabul –Kriti M. Shah icalism, natural and environmental disasters and ca- a problem, we can resolve it together; there is no

98 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 99 problem for which there is no solution. At the moment, an existential threat that we have At this time, our regions are mostly affected by to face together, that requires serious and considered four main issues. The first one is the issue of North effort, is the threat of the development of terrorism Korea; the second is the issue of the development of and radicalism in this region. The threat of terrorism the South China Sea; the third is the trilateral coop- and radicalism is an inter-state threat, which has eration to protect our region from the development widespread networks and activities. Therefore, it re- of the Daesh group; and the fourth is the crisis of quires collective efforts and action through intensive Rohingiya. collaboration and strengthened capabilities in the re- The common threat that we address together is gion, and interaction in a more constructive and con- the foundation for us to be united against these chal- crete manner. lenges. This is also in line with the big thematic topic In South East Asia, the Southern Philippines has of the Raisina Dialogue 2018, which is managing dis- been used as one of ISIS’s strongholds that has ruptive transitions. sparked terror activities in the region. The group Related to the security escalation in the Korean continues to plan to build a caliphate, which is al- peninsula, I would like to ask every nation not to pro- lied to the ISIS division of East Asia. The formation The main objective of this trilateral engagement is ca Straits; the second one is the Joint Coordinated voke the exacerbation of this conflict. Let us stand to- of the Daesh group in the Philippines—the so-called to establish a perimeter to limit the movement of the Patrol and Maritime Cooperation in Thailand waters; gether to request the United Nations to take produc- IS Philippines, IS Malaysia, and IS Indonesia—has Daesh group in our region, and to prevent an incursion and the third is the trilateral engagement in the Sulu tive and fruitful measures to pressure North Korea a Daesh-centered structure under the leadership of and/or the infiltration of our region, especially in the waters. We plan to expand these three platforms to uphold and respect international law and norms in Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi based in Syria and Iraq. In or- Sulu waters. We should also focus, at the same time, of cooperation, and to widen their scope to include the international realm. der to address this potential threat of terrorism and our attention on the Rohingiya crisis in the Rakhine other nations in the region. We would like to invite On the other hand, the escalation of the situation radicalism, Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysiahave State in Myanmar. It needs more concrete action and our nation partners ranging from the United States, in the South China Sea now appears to have less- established a platform for cooperation and engage- collective effort in the region for this target in a prop- to Australia, Japan, and other nations. The expan- ened and become much more conducive. We have to ment. We have established a trilateral cooperation er manner. Otherwise, these vulnerable refugees will sion of this cooperation is aimed at establishing and maintain this momentum in order to accommodate platform in the Sulu waters that comprises of jointly be recruited by the Daesh group that can strengthen strengthening the inter-connectivity of sub-regional our interests in this region. At the same time, we coordinated patrolling of the sea and air. At the same their network in our region. engagement and cooperation. also have to appreciate the goodwill of China to be time, we plan to step up this collaboration and coop- To strengthen our ability for early detection and In order to address and eradicate this threat of more open, and their willingness to cooperate and eration to create a more coordinated land patrol be- to supervise the growth of this Daesh group in our terrorism and the growth of Daesh in our region, In- to strengthen the security architecture in this region. tween the borders of these three countries. region, I have come up with a new initiative. This donesia is not only taking a hard power approach to involves greater intelligence cooperation among na- strengthen our law enforcement and military capabil- tions in our region, the so-called ‘Our Eyes’. The ‘Our ities, but is also trying to strengthen the mindset of Eyes’ concept is similar to the western concept of our people. We would like to ask all the people of ‘Five Eyes’. However, there is no political agenda at- Indonesia to participate and to instil the spirit of na- tached to this cooperation. It is purely to address and tionalism, and the spirit of defending the state: bela eradicate the development and growing terrorism negara. The spirit of state defence is rooted in our and radicalism in our region. basic values and culture—it is in the DNA of our peo- The concept of this intelligence platform of coop- ple, and so, it is easy for us to spread this spirit. So, eration has been met with widespread support—it I have requested all the people of Indonesia to fight is accredited by the Defence Minister of ASEAN. It against the spread of radicalism, and it is proven to is also supported by our strategic partner countries be effective. such as the United States, Australia, Russia, and Ja- Based on a current survey, 94% of the Indonesian pan. The soft launch of this Initiative will be conduct- people rejected the ISIS ideology. More and more ed in Bali on the 25thJanuary 2018. The mechanism religious, people’s, mass, and youth organisations of this cooperation hopes to strengthen our resilience have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with and our cooperative mechanisms in the region. the Defence Ministry of Indonesia, stating that they Currently there are at least three kinds of plat- would like to fight the ISIS ideology and defend our forms of international cooperation and collaboration nation from this twisted ideology. The other 4% of to address the common challenges in our region. The Indonesian people did not sufficiently answer the first one is the Joint Coordinated Patrol in the Malac- survey questions, or responded in an unfavorable

100 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 101 manner. Even so, we have to respect their views and role to strengthen the regional security architecture, perspective. Based on the fact analysis and current and participate in multilateral forums, regionally and intelligence report, there are around 700 people in internationally, such as the ADMM (ASEAN Defence Indonesia that have been affected by this radical ide- Ministers Meeting), ADMM+, ARF, EAS, EEAS, and Ministerial Address: ology or are affiliated with the ISIS group. Despite the other forms of cooperation, including the prestigious Abul Hassan Mahmood fact that this is a very small number, we have to take Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi. Indonesia also would precautions, and take action to prevent the spread of like to reiterate our commitment to strengthen our Ali, Minister of Foreign this ideology in our region. defence diplomacy with the implementation of the My concept, of how we should eradicate radical- more concrete action to support the realisation of Affairs, Bangladesh ism through the instilment of the mindset of our peo- peace, security, stability, and prosperity in our region. ple, is proven to be true and it is reflected in the book, Ladies and gentlemen, respecting the sovereign- ‘The Future of Powers’ by Jo Nigh. The book states ty of a country is very essential and fundamental, that hard power only contributes towards 1% of the and defending state security is a must to secure total measures taken to tackle the development or our existence. At the same time, however, we have xcellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and curity and foreign policy engagements and stability the growing radicalism or terrorism in any region. The a common threat in our region. So, it is imperative gentlemen, assalamu alaikum, namaskar, and for sustainable future are increasingly governed by other 99% is based on how we can strengthen the we develop solidarity and stand united against these Ea very good evening to all of you. I would like a wide range of competing, often conflicting, global mindset of our people so they are against terrorist threats, to achieve our noblest objectives. to thank the Observer Research Foundation and the factors and forces. Increasingly more and more non- ideology. In Indonesia, we try to strengthen the mind- Ladies and gentlemen, that is all that I can say in Ministry of External Affairs of India for inviting me to state actors are getting involved in the intra-state set of people through the bela negara or the spirit of addressing the development of our security challeng- this third edition of the Raisina Dialogue. I am delight- conflicts and Transboundary crimes including interna- state defence and nationalism to ask every person to es and threats that I mentioned above. Understand- ed to be able to come back to speak at this dialogue tional terrorism, proliferation of WMDs, trafficking in reject this ideology. ing the importance of strengthening our similarities that allows me to interact with high dignitaries, se- human beings, drugs, arms and laundering of funds. The main key to respond to the various security and decreasing our differences is crucial, and should nior policymakers, security experts, eminent educa- These are changing national and collective security challenges and threats at the international level is res- always be promoted in order to achieve our common tionists and practitioners from around the world. The relations. In South Asia, like in many other regions, olution through a security consultation mechanism goals and represent our region’s common interests. theme selected for the third Raisina Dialogue ‘Man- humanitarian issues such as the Rohingya refu- either bilaterally or multilaterally. I am confident there That is my presentation for today. I believe that it is in aging Disruptive Transition – Ideas, Institutions and gee crisis, terrorism and extreme violence, climate is no State that can face these threats alone. They line with the thematic issue of our discussion today, Idioms’ is indeed timely. change are disrupting life, stability and livelihood. need to collaborate and cooperate with other nations. which is to seek commonalities in order to address Friends, we live in an increasingly complex and In this evolving global context, Bangladesh should Eventually, it will be inevitable for every nation to the uncertainty. I thank you so much. uncertain world where concepts of foreign policy and approach its foreign policy imperatives in a way that stand together to address these challenges. I would national security are shifting rapidly from an era of fits to our national objectives. Considering our long like to reiterate our commitment to play a very active familiar predictability to an era of risks and instabili- experience in global peace keeping, Bangladesh will ty. Profound geopolitical transformations have swept continue to pursue its peace-centric and sustainable our societies and economies challenging the post- developed focused approach in the international fora. World War international order. In his introduction to On the domestic front, the people-centric develop- the book, ‘The Rise and Fall of Great Powers’ British ment agenda will continue to take priority which will historian Paul Kennedy observed that as the 20th cen- be furthered by regional integration and connectivity. tury approached, the pace of technological change The major thrust of our future foreign policy prior- and uneven growth rates and inequalities in the inter- ities would be first, deeper and broader engagement national system have made all systems unstable and with developed countries; second, maritime coopera- to some extent unpredictable. Thus, traditional polit- tion and blue economy; third, regional integration and ical studies and security doctrines are fast becoming multimodal connectivity; fourth, focusing on imme- history as we embrace new concepts of virtual and diate neighbours; fifth, effective partnership for eco- augmented realities, security and alliances. nomic interests; sixth, realization of sustainable de- We have to admit that while a lot of institutions velopment goals; seventh, promotion of justice, rule are gaining strength through application of new tech- of law and human rights; eighth, maintaining lead role nology, the process is not always without shocks. in peacekeeping and peace building. The very concepts of nation-state and sovereignty Distinguished participants, let me come back to are being increasingly challenged in an inter-connect- the theme of Raisina Dialogue. While it is critical to ed world. In this complex world, States’ national se- manage disruptive transition, there is hardly a simple

102 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 103 linear way to do so. Speaking of ideas and institutions on the solid foundation of relations between Bangla- for managing disruptive transitions, as a long term desh and India, our father of the nation Bangaband- practicing diplomat I would like to focus on foreign hu Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rahman in his speech at Kolkata relations as a tool and a platform. I will take relations on 6th February 1972 floated the concept of regional with the closest neighbour and the most trusted part- cooperation in South Asia. He said, “As for us, we ner, India, in my consideration. The birth of Bangla- will be wanting to cooperate with all concerned for desh in South Asia was a major transformative event creating an area of peace in South Asia where we in the world. Despite strong opposition, Bangladesh could live side by side as good neighbours and pur- as a new country which was economically less ad- sue constructive policies for the benefit of our peo- vanced, achieved freedom as a nation on the prem- ple.” In that line, under the leadership of the daugh- ise of strong nationalism amid opposition of many ter of Bangabandhu, Prime Minister Sheikh Haseena, powerful countries. The government of India and its Bangladesh continues to pursue regional cooperation people extended their wholehearted support to our and connectivity as a means to effectively minimise liberation war which we had fought at the clarion call the impacts of the disruptive forces. Be it in BIMS- of our father of the nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mu- TEC, BBIN, BCIM, SASEC, Bangladesh is vocal and jib-ur-Rahman. proactive on regional cooperation in all its aspects as In the new Bangladesh, devastated infrastructure, a force to ensure long term peace, progress and sta- disordered economy, less developed governance bility. systems, where post-transition challenges. Bangla- Ladies and gentlemen, in 2017, the world wit- desh’s strong and friendly relations with India, was nessed one of the fastest growing human move- a major factor for bringing stability and effectively ad- ments of the history as Myanmar orchestrated an un- dressing the disruptive forces in Bangladesh. Riding precedented exodus of Rohingyas from its Rakhine

State. Almost 700,000 desperate Rohingyas entered to Myanmar. Bangladesh and Myanmar recently dis- Bangladesh since 25th August, 2017. The helpless cussed and finalized the text of the physical arrange- Rohingyas faced worst forms of human rights vio- ment which will facilitate return of the Rohingyas lations owing to their religion and race, which was from Bangladesh guided by the earlier understanding mentioned by the UN High Commissioner for Human and principles signed as ‘Arrangement on Return of Rights as, “Textbook example of ethnic cleansing.” Displaced Persons from Rakhine State’. The physical Bangladesh as immediate neighbour had to bear the arrangement stipulates that repatriation would be burden of hosting altogether over 1 million forcibly completed preferably within two years from the com- displaced population in its territory. It is the policy of mencement of repatriation. friendly and good neighbourly relations with neigh- The government of Bangladesh would like to urge bours that guided us through this difficult time with the international community to support rehabilitation our neighbour Myanmar. efforts in the northern Rakhine State of Myanmar The Rohingya influx from Myanmar to Bangladesh where the Rohingyas came from. We would also like has hovered our relations in the recent times. How- to request India and the international community to ever, we remained steadfast in our foreign policy ob- keep putting pressure on Myanmar authorities so jective and continued our bilateral engagements with that complete and sustainable repatriation of Rohing- Myanmar. We hope to see the problem to be resolved ya refugees could be ensured. permanently with sustainable return of the Rohingyas Ladies and gentlemen, the past, present and fu-

104 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 105 ture of Bangladesh are indeed interlinked. As prime Our two border guarding agencies also interact reg- minister Modi had said in Dhaka, pass-pass saath- ularly i.e. the Border Guard Bangladesh and Border saath. In the last four decades since Bangladesh’s Security Force. The navies and the coast guards have independence, our ties with India have flourished in their consultation mechanisms. Defence cooperation depth and dimension and today we are enjoying the between the two countries is also growing. Towards a Bay of Bengal best of relations. The present government of prime Our cooperation is not only limited to prevent- minister Sheikh Haseena since assuming office for ing disruption in the area of security but also quite Community: Development, the second time in January 2009 has taken land- deep in economic, social and cultural fields. I have mark steps towards improving relations with India. already mentioned our common commitment to ad- Growth and Security Day 3 Thanks to the extraordinary initiatives from both the vance regional and international cooperation includ- governments of prime minister Narendra Modi and ing strengthening of BIMSTEC which brings togeth- prime minister Sheikh Haseena, the long unresolved er Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand. Land Boundary Agreement has been implemented. BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) and BCIM he Bay of Bengal Initiative within BIMSTEC countries was Similarly, some of the major disruptive issues have (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar). In pursuit of MODERATOR been resolved peacefully. This has led to citizenship regional connectivity, present government has of- for Multi-Sectoral Technical 2.86 per cent compared to 7 per to about 51000 stateless people from both sides of fered transit through Bangladesh to not only India but and Economic Cooperation cent within SAARC and 29 per Baijayant Panda, MEMBER OF T PARLIAMENT, INDIA the border. We have also peacefully demarcated our also to Bhutan and Nepal. Power sector cooperation (BIMSTEC) has often been re- cent within ASEAN countries.” maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. In the past between Bangladesh and India is a reality now. The garded as the natural platform to The lack of physical infrastruc- 9 years we have experienced remarkable progress sub-regional, hydropower cooperation involving Ne- fulfil India’s key foreign policy ob- ture, particularly transport, was PANELLISTS jectives of ‘neighbourhood first’ identified as one of the major im- in many areas namely security, connectivity, devel- pal and Bhutan is being pursued by Bangladesh for Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, opment cooperation, cultural exchange, power, trade greater national and regional energy security. and ‘Act East’. The Bay of Bengal pediments to the growth of trade. MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, BANGLADESH and commerce, defence exchange and so on. The Ladies and gentlemen, high level of understand- is the largest bay in the world and Nepal’s Foreign Secretary Shan- Vasantha Senanayake, STATE security cooperation together with our collective ing and context among peoples can also play a vital about a quarter of the world’s pop- kar Das Bairagi observed that the MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, SRI LANKA fight against terrorism and violent extremism con- role in securing our society and economy. To increase ulation resides in this region. With member states do not even have a population of around 1.6 billion direct air connectivity among Shankar Das Bairagi, FOREIGN tinue to play an important role in achieving peace, people to people contact, both our countries are work- SECRETARY, NEPAL stability and security in the region and beyond. I am ing towards more bus and train services between the people and a combined gross do- them. As the largest economy in mestic product (GDP) of US$ 3 tril- the grouping, India was expected Preeti Saran, SECRETARY, (EAST), sure in the process we have avoided many potential two countries. In 2017, more than 1.4 million people MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, INDIA disruptive events. visited each other’s countries. There are numerous lion, this is a significant bloc. The to play a more proactive role in On the particular question of terrorism, our posi- training exchange programs for our civil servants, po- BIMSTEC countries continued to achieving greater connectivity in tion is firm and unequivocal. Prime minister of Ban- lice, members of the judiciary, technical experts and grow at a healthy rate of 6 per the region. Indian diplomat Pree- gladesh Sheikh Haseena steadfastly maintained zero numerous other scholarships offered by India for our cent even after the global finan- ti Saran said India was indeed tolerance to terrorism in all its forms and manifes- young talented professionals. Many Indian students cial crisis which led to a rapid de- committed to leading the way in tations. In line with this, concrete steps have been are also studying in our public and private institutions. celeration of growth in developed improving connectivity within the taken jointly to improve the security climate in the re- There is always the scope to broaden partnership economies. The geostrategic region. She also highlighted a few gion. No terrorist outfit is allowed to operate from in- between the two countries. What is needed is the importance of the region comes major projects like the India-Myan- side Bangladesh and jeopardize the security interest positive mindset of our peoples towards relations. from its unique location between mar-Thailand trilateral highway, of our neighbours including India. This commitment Equally we need to understand each other’s con- vital sea routes which have facili- Kaladan Multimodal Project, Asian has been amply demonstrated in the last 9 years cerns, risks and vulnerabilities as well as opportuni- tated global maritime trade since Highway Network, and transmis- through our tough and decisive actions. ties. As the closest neighbours, Bangladesh and India time immemorial. The region also sion lines in Nepal. When asked Bangladesh and India have successfully put in will continue to work together to establish a secure serves as a link between South why some projects were facing place a very intensive security cooperation frame- South Asia for the benefit of all its peoples. I thank Asia and South East Asia. Howev- delays, she said large-scale infra- work including a three-tiered mechanism between you all for your attention. er, even after two decades of its structure projects take time to two Home Ministries at Minister level, Secretary existence, the region remains one take off because of many imped- Level and Joint Secretary Level consultations. These of the least integrated regions in iments. She emphasised political mechanisms cover border management, intelligence the world and only three summits will on both sides was the key to sharing on terrorist, insurgent groups, all trans-na- have been held so far. According success. In addition to improving tional crimes, trafficking in human beings and so on. to Member of Parliament Bai- geographical connectivity, the jayant Panda, “intra-regional trade other essential elements of seam-

106 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 107 less connectivity in the BIMSTEC assistance in customs matters. region are investment connec- Bairagi also referred to a few in- tivity, energy connectivity, digital stitutional hurdles in BIMSTEC connectivity, and people-to-peo- such as the absence of a BIMS- ple connectivity. TEC charter. Although BIMSTEC Although a free trade agree- has evolved around the Bangkok ment between BIMSTEC coun- declaration which is the founding tries is a necessity for closer document, a clearly defined legal economic ties, all the panellists document in the form of a char- agreed that the progress has been ter which outlines the roles of the less than satisfactory. However, in secretariat, member states and, recent years, BIMSTEC members other processes would play a vital have entered into various bilater- role in enhancing the profile of the al and regional free trade agree- grouping. “The fact that BIMSTEC ments such as the ASEAN-India Another area of major interest is lodged where the North free trade agreement and the Re- is security, particularly maritime Eastern States of India are gional Comprehensive Economic security. Vasant Senanayake, also being encouraged to Partnership (RCEP). Therefore, State Minister of Foreign Affairs the proposed BIMSTEC FTA is of Sri Lanka, pointed out the need integrate with its extended important for greater economic to understand the many features neighborhood, which integration in the BIMSTEC re- of maritime security which in- includes ofcourse the Sri Lanka with fishermen from With regard to maritime security, gion as a single community. Giv- clude issues such as piracy, drug BIMSTEC region. each country transgressing the BIMSTEC should establish links en the impediments to a trade trafficking and fisheries. There is International Maritime Boundary with the Indian Ocean Rim Asso- —Preeti Saran agreement, Saran suggested that a need for a common understand- Line (IMBL). Similarly, issues rel- ciation (IORA) and the Internation- BIMSTEC countries should try ing of the issues relevant to each evant to each country need to be al Maritime Organisation (IMO) to establish a BIMSTEC trade fa- country. For example, there has identified and resolved. BIMSTEC for exchange of information and cilitation agreement and mutual been conflict between India and must ensure as a bloc that water- best practices. ways are not abused. The lack of implementation –Malancha Chakrabarty of agreements is another area of concern. In the words of Bairagi, “Agreements are signed, commit- ments are made but there is no “We believe that to be concrete institutional mechanism competitive in the Asian to follow and monitor the imple- mentation progress.” Although century BIMSTEC should the BIMSTEC Secretariat has focus on the most essential been established, it is not a robust elements – physical institution and lacks the authority connectivity, institutional to initiate proposals and ensure their implementation. So, more at- connectivity, trade facilitation, tention needs to be paid towards infrastructure, the free trade implementation. To increase its agreement and economic capacity, BIMSTEC must actively integration”. engage in outreach activities to gain from similar organisations —Vasantha Senanayake and the United Nations agencies.

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ver the past few years, Aadhaar infrastructure; and there India has made digital fi- are now over one billion Indian cit- MODERATOR nancial inclusion one of its izens on the platform. This means Tidhar Wald, HEAD OF GOVERNMENT O RELATIONS & PUBLIC POLICY, BETTER THAN most important policy priorities by that providing citizens with their CASH ALLIANCE seeking to bank the unbanked in unique identity had cost India an order to transfer welfare benefits average of two dollars per person. directly to the people. A panel at Aadhaar’s success story lies in PANELLISTS the Raisina Dialogue 2018 ex- how states managed to bring peo- Amitabh Kant, CEO, NITI AAYOG plored India’s growth in the digital ple into the ecosystem in a man- are currently leading the conver- ed on financial transactions which Vijay Shekhar Sharma, FOUNDER sation on security risks and solu- can enable younger companies to payments space and addressed ner that was not only efficient but AND HEAD, PAYTM how lessons from India can be in- also quick and inexpensive. tions for the payments sector; expand their markets. People are structive for other emerging econ- Cash is a huge competitor for Porush Singh, INDIA AND DIVISION India must pay heed to such de- keen to eliminate the middlemen PRESIDENT, SOUTH ASIA, MASTERCARD omies. the digital payments ecosystem, velopments. and use their own devices to carry The growth of Aadhaar, a with only 15 percent of transac- Arvind Gupta, HEAD, DIGITAL INDIA Fin-tech startups and smaller out financial transactions. Innova- unique public data infrastructure, tions worldwide being carried out FOUNDATION enterprises will play a huge role tions such as the Bharat QR and in realising the goal to digitise all the United Payments Interface has enabled people to bypass online. In India, leading up to the Agnieszka Wierzbicka, EXPERT, several steps when obtaining es- last two years, over 95 percent of MINISTRY OF DIGITAL AFFAIRS, POLAND transactions. Using data analyt- (UPI) can be an instrumental lay- sential banking services. As pan- all transactions were in made by ics, MSMEs and SMEs that have er on which the private sector can ellists noted, Aadhaar has enabled debit card. Aadhaar has been crit- traditionally and historically had a develop their solutions. the country to leapfrog technolog- ical in transforming the payments better record of repayments can India has pioneered a novel ically by ensuring transparency ecosystem since then. The speed compete with the bigger players public-private partnership for the and promoting inclusivity through with which one can put mer- “We are the only country and potentially disrupt the mar- digital age, with both the state and the Jan Dhan programme. chants and consumers on-board in the world with a billion ket. Data can also be analysed to the startups competing to serve promote financial inclusion for all, the people. Aadhaar has led to the creation using Aadhaar ekyc has proven to bank account, we are the of IndiaStack, a suite of layers be a successful model. As a pan- leading to an increased flow of re- only country with a billion –Madhulika Srikumar built on a digital identity that facili- ellist put it, India has the potential sources from the banking system tates authentication, storage, and to become a “normative super- biometric, we are the only to those below the poverty line. payments online. The IndiaStack power” on financial inclusion and country with a billion mobile”. The next biggest disruption that has also created an ecosystem digital payments. India will undertake is to wipe out —Amitabh Kant where data can be utilised as a The growing payments eco- credit cards, debit cards and ATM public good, allowing private ac- system, however, has to be se- machines. People will instead tors to innovate on top of the plat- cured at the same time, to protect transact at zero cost using only form to provide better, more tar- the people – consumers and mer- their smartphones and their own geted services. It cost the state chants—as well as the processes biometrics. This, in turn, will lead some US$2.4 billion to build the and data. European economies to an upsurge in the data collect-

110 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 111 From Multilaterals to Multinationals: Provision of Global Public Goods Day 3

key disruption currently oc- essary because of the need to curring in social contracts in bridge capacity (“last mile” con- MODERATOR countries around the world nectivity in India, for instance) and Isabelle Mégré, ADVISOR, PROGRAM A AND CONTENT, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC is the political and social roles efficiency gaps of existing state FORUM OF THE AMERICAS being played by multinationals, mechanisms, and to engage in private companies, philanthropic spaces where government institu- institutions, technological compa- tions are insufficient. As Sanjeev PANELLISTS nies and start-ups in developing Bhikchandani said during his inter- Tarek Elabbady, CHIEF TECHNOLOGY tained in low-income countries be- government-level engagement and providing public goods and vention on the Indian experience OFFICER, MICROSOFT EMERGING MARKETS services—traditionally the ambit with privatisation in the space of DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION, MICROSOFT cause of attention on public health will remain critical in the space of and education programmes. Politi- public goods. The market can— of governments. Instances of pri- public goods, “The reality is that Sandhya Venkateswaran, DEPUTY cal inclination and preferences will and does—fail, and it may not be vate intervention are increasing, in a country of 1.2 or 1.3 billion DIRECTOR, INDIA, BILL & MELINDA GATES with participation evident in tradi- people, public goods are often FOUNDATION dictate where the line is drawn. best situated to deliver goods op- For instance, Hans-Christian Hag- timally. Thus, a strong state role is tional areas of state monopolies, very scarce if they are being run Hans-Christian Hagman, CHIEF in both acceptable fields such as by the government.” Additionally, ANALYST AND SENIOR ADVISER TO THE STATE man mentioned the ongoing de- necessary in the continued provi- SECRETARY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, SWEDISH bate in Sweden regarding quality sion of key public goods, regula- health and education, and con- globalisation has allowed greater MINISTRY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS troversial ones such as law and reach to multinationals and private and the cap on private profit in tion and quality control. Sandhya Mabel Brodrick-Okereke, order, use of force, and identifi- institutions as they seek materials public education and health. Glob- Venkateswaran outlined a quick FOUNDER & CEO, EDUCATIONAL SOCIAL ally, there is an ongoing conver- metric to define the role of the cation systems. The debate on and markets, as well as power ENTERPRISE the extent of private participation and authority within a system to sation about the United States private sector: private players are Sanjeev Bikhchandani, FOUNDER retreating from its traditional role optimal where both measurability covers not only public goods with- influence outcomes favourable to AND EXECUTIVE VICE-CHAIRMAN, INFOEDGE in a country but also global goods their interests. In this process, the “Empower people so as the predominant provider of of outcome and social benefit is that transcend boundaries: clean “social licence to operate”—be- that they can empower global public goods. Many are high, but where measurability is environment, knowledge, peace ing a good neighbour in a commu- anticipating that China will fill in low and social benefit is high, the themselves and take forward the gap, particularly in the field of state must play a strong role in fi- and security, and health, among nity—through the facilitation of and help other people”. others. public services becomes impera- technology, e.g., green technolo- nancing and provision. Relying on the private sector tive, as Mabel Brodrick-Okereke —Mabel Brodrick-Okereke gy. Indeed, Beijing recognises its Illustrative of this debate is to produce and manage goods noted while discussing the case Belt and Road Initiative, now in its the phenomenon of data-driven and services in the larger public study of Niger Delta region, where fifth year, as a global public good innovation. Knowledge is a glob- interest is inevitable. Indeed, the many oil companies operate. that is reinforcing globalisation al public good, which we charac- total value of public-private part- This increase in private partici- and providing regionally beneficial terise as data, “the new oil” and nership projects in low and mid- pation may not necessarily come goods such as physical, social and “the currency of the future.” Giv- dle-income countries more than at the expense of a shrinking digital infrastructure. en the central role data plays in doubled between 2005 and 2010 state. Data indicates an (absolute) Furthermore, despite in- anything and everything digital, it alone. This fragmentation is nec- increase in public spending, sus- creased private participation, is the “most important element of

112 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 113 tomorrow’s power,” in Hagman’s sectors and borders—to ensure words. Innovation and provision effective use of data. Building in- of technological products, which frastructure, providing processing are primarily private goods—ac- services such as edge computing, tivity trackers, smartphones—can and ensuring inclusivity are ways Alignment, Arrangement Or no longer be restricted to the tra- in which private entities can get ditional buyer–seller relationship. involved. Alliance? Debating the This is because the unit of inter- action is “data,” which is subse- –Ritika Passi Future of the Indo-Pacific Day 3 quently collected and organised, used, purchased and sold. More- over, while the digital space is a commons, it is firmly entrenched “India unfortunately has a n November 2017, on the side- charter mandates of formal alli- in the ambit of private entities, MODERATOR e.g., tech companies. This nec- huge unfinished agenda lines of the ASEAN meeting in ances. At the same time, formal essarily calls for public–private when it comes to public Manila, officials from the United alliances can diminish sovereignty Indrani Bagchi, DIPLOMATIC EDITOR, I THE TIMES OF INDIA States, Japan, Australia and India and be constraining, reducing the engagement for the effective use goods”. of data. For instance, urban mo- met to revive the four-way quad- foreign policy choices of states bility data that is collected by pri- —Sandhya Venkateswaran rilateral dialogue (colloquially, the that are party to them. Tensions PANELLISTS quad) after a hiatus of ten years. between the demands of treaty vate transportation companies, in Admiral Sunil Lanba, CHIEF OF the hands of policymakers, could Two months later, in an apparently alliances and the flexibility of ad NAVAL STAFF, INDIA unconnected development, gen- hoc arrangements, could lead to lead to better city planning. Tarek Admiral Harry Harris, Jr., Elabbady, in his intervention, ex- eral and flag officers from all four diminished utility especially when COMMANDER, U.S. PACIFIC COMMAND plained how multinationals can countries, along with a former se- viewed against the wider choic- nior Indonesian diplomat, assem- es that come from multi-aligned Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, become involved with govern- CHIEF OF STAFF, JOINT STAFF, JAPAN ments—the only ones with the bled in Delhi for a panel discussion foreign policies. These conflicting CHIEF power to aggregate data across at the third edition of the Raisina scenarios will likely determine the Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, Dialogue. The meeting came at a structure of any future Indo-Pacif- OF NAVY, AUSTRALIA time when the strategic construct ic security architecture. Dino Patti Djalal, FOUNDER, FOREIGN of an ‘Indo-Pacific’ order is gaining Indian Navy chief Admiral Sunil POLICY COMMUNITY OF INDONESIA currency at official levels, and the Lanba delicately brought up the General Chris Deverell, JOINT deliberations focussed on what it challenge faced by multi-aligned FORCES COMMANDER, U.K. could look like and the challenges states such as India in multilateral to its evolution. institutions. He noted: “The core In particular, the panellists con- philosophy of these institutions templated whether such an order must show respect for strategic would be shaped by formal alli- autonomy for each participating ances, or by multiple alignments nation.” Admiral Lanba’s remark and foreign policy orientations of was, in many ways, an echo of the regional powers. They also artic- on- and off-record equation of the ulated their views on the role of quad with other plurilaterals (the flexible regional arrangements, Russia-India-China dialogue by In- such as the Quad, in shaping that dian officials) and was an unspo- order. However, the problem with ken expression of India’s strategic flexible arrangements is precise- autonomy. This, in turn, signals to ly its flexibility, which could im- the other three in the quad that pose an ad hoc character on the India’s foreign policy strategy pre- groupings, in the absence of the cludes the quad from becoming

114 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 115 an exclusive partnership directed South China Sea. It is unlikely that against China. an informal arrangement such as The danger with this position, the quad will collectively under- of course, is that by establishing a take such action any time soon. notional parity between the quad Former Indonesian ambas- and other arrangements (with or sador to the US Dino Patti Djalal without China), the agenda of the also highlighted the difference former stands to be diluted or, at between alliances and align- worst, become vacuous. In par- ments, arguing that “[new] stra- ticular, India’s strategic autonomy tegic spaces that will be created posture is the best bet China has will not be by alliances but by that the quad will never acquire a alignments.” The Indonesian serious political-military character. position was unsurprising given This is precisely what is needed that Indonesia – like India – has a “It is the shared vision of for it to have teeth in face of Chi- multi-aligned foreign policy, deft- almost all stakeholders in nese revisionism. This implication ly juggling its interests with both the Indo-Pacific to establish also stands to negate Admiral the US and China as well as its an environment of peace Lanba’s fellow panellist and US role in ASEAN. However, another Pacific Command chief, Admiral problem with flexible alignments and security. In India’s Harry Harris’s exhortation about are that their strengths – by defi- context, this is enshrined the need to exhibit “courage” and nition – vary over time, leading to in the vision of SAGAR make it modify its behaviour. The outcomes of uneven quality. One take “tough decisions” to main- a diffusion of purpose. If China as articulated by our Dragon can only be tamed, some way by which the quality of the tain the free and open character is indeed the leading disruptor in honourable Prime Minister”. would argue, through sustained exercises could be standardised of the Indo-Pacific. It is worth the Indo-Pacific, as Harris in his and single-minded pressure. is to include Australia in the an- noting that in the past, Harris had remark claimed, an inter alia dif- —Admiral Sunil Lanba In the absence of a straitjack- nual high-end MALABAR exercis- quite forcefully advocated that In- fused focus of like-minded coun- eted multilateral alliance such as es. But then, with such exercises dia and the US jointly patrol the tries vis-à-vis Beijing is unlikely to NATO, there is a distinct possibil- the quad could start assuming ity that a plethora of security ar- the contours of an alliance, which rangements could crop up within would, in turn, impinge on India’s a region, leading to duplications, strategic-autonomy posture. unevenness of coordination be- tween the various members, and –Abhijnan Rej other problems that hinder con- “China cannot be checked. crete outcomes. This was pre- Yes, in the same way India cisely the point made by the chief cannot be checked. India of the Australian navy, Admiral Tim Barrett. He acerbically noted is going to keep growing that “[one such problem] may be militarily and strategically just as simple as asking the same na- like the United States cannot tions to send the same ships to so be checked and Russia many exercises that they run out of fuel.” But similar problems may cannot be checked”. exist within a given grouping – take —Dino Patti Djalal the quad, for example. Australia, India, Japan and the US carry out naval exercises in bilateral, trilat- eral and multilateral formats, with

116 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 117 Fragile World: Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Challenges in 2018 Day 3

common refrain that has stem the exodus of the Rohingya been recently reverberating from Myanmar. Emerging powers MODERATOR Ain many parts of the world such as India, while willing partic- Sunjoy Joshi, CHAIRMAN, OBSERVER is that the international liberal or- ipants, remain frustrated by the RESEARCH FOUNDATION der is under siege: populism has geopolitical machinations within infected western democracies; the United Nations; indeed, its in- illiberal autocracies like China are stitutional design, to begin with. PANELLISTS on the march; technology is prov- As international security expert, David Malone, RECTOR, UNITED ing to be more disruptive than ex- David Malone says, it is difficult NATIONS UNIVERSITY “One of the issues about this isations like the Bill and Melinda nation states themselves have Gates Foundation are increasingly failed to keep up with the scope, pected; and global institutions like for multilateral institutions to deal Rohinton Medhora, PRESIDENT, question about technology influencing health policy. intensity and velocity of globalisa- the United Nations and the World with “geo-strategically sensitive CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE is replacing jobs and that Trade Organization are ineffectu- issues.” He laments that the sys- INNOVATION Political and economic disrup- tion and technological change. In jobs migrating is that good tions aside, emerging technolo- many ways, the crisis of liberal de- al. Indeed, the world is now mul- tem as we know it, at 70 years, is Memduh Karakullukcu, VICE- tipolar, with different institutions, “very stressed.” CHAIRMAN AND PRESIDENT, GLOBAL old-fashioned social policy, gies—especially artificial intelli- mocracy has more to do with na- RELATIONS FORUM actors and interests competing It is likely, therefore, that 2018 social safety nets, retraining gence and 3D printing—will also tional governments failing to em- to support, shape or undermine will see the growth of a trend Yul Sohn, DIRECTOR, EAST ASIA INSTITUTE challenge the dominant intellec- ploy social and economic policy to programs, skills programs, tual and governance theories that guard against the adverse effects global governance. What do these that has emerged over the past DIRECTOR, GATEWAY Neelam Deo, what used to be called guided development patterns in of these forces. However, while geopolitical and geoeconomic decade: interest-based plurilat- HOUSE shifts mean for the coming de- eralism. The 2008 financial crisis industrial policy, we forgot the 20th century. “The manufac- there is some “rough and tum- cade? The key challenge will be was undoubtedly a key trigger for those things in the dogma turing export based growth mod- ble” in democratic governments, guaranteeing multilateralism and this emerging trend; the creation el that brought up many of the as Rohington Medhora charac- and as a result industrial East Asian economies may not be terises the election of Trump and cooperation in such a multipolar of the G20 was a recognition that countries were unprepared world. the world is changing, and that available in the next 15-20 years,” Brexit, the processes of democra- Perhaps no other institution new actors and voices must be for the transition that they cautions Memduh Karakullukcu. cy appear intact. If anything, there embodies the aspirations of the heard. Such “coalitions of conve- now face”. Malone also says that not only will is now room for nation states to liberal order as much as the Unit- nience,” Indian analyst Neelam states struggle to provide jobs and assert themselves. Medhora be- —Rohinton Medhora ed Nations. At the same time, this Deo believes, are the future of purpose to their citizens, but they lieves that “there is going to be very institution represents its own global economic governance. Al- will also have to grapple with the a new compact” between nation contradictions and in the 21st ready, the traditional sources of social effects of technology: echo states and multilateralism. century, the UN appears trapped monetary input are giving way chambers, filter bubbles, algo- This new compact will include in 20th-century political strug- to new institutions such as the rithms and the monopoly of “big actors who have had no role to gles. The UN has been incapable BRICS Development Bank and tech” have ended the “a blind ro- play in shaping the current inter- of preventing war and conflict in the Asian Infrastructure Invest- mance with technology.” national order. As Trump challeng- many countries such as Syria, ment Bank (AIIB); at the same Clearly then, it appears as if es the foundations of an Ameri- Yemen and Libya; it has failed to time, international private organ- the current international order and can-led order, countries like China

118 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 119 will undoubtedly attempt to fill arrived at a point were govern- the void. Already, through initia- ments are challenging the foun- tives like the Belt and Road, and dations of the international order. leadership in the AIIB, China is de- The shocks of the 2008 crisis con- manding significant change in the tinue to reverberate around the current order. Having said that, it world; new political, economic is also clear that other countries and technological shifts will con- Conflict, Rights and the like India, Japan and Australia tinue to stress international co- are keen to preserve certain el- operation. In the coming years, Machine Day 3 ements of the rule-based order. adapting to new ideas, idioms and The ideation of the Quadrilateral institutions will be crucial in man- “When you look at non- Initiative, new theatres like the aging these disruptions. ‘Indo-Pacific’, and the success of great powers like other East Asian countries, Japan t the conclusion of the first matters more complex, many of the Trans Pacific Agreement even –Akhil Deo MODERATOR without America, suggest that South Korea, Australia and meeting of the UN Group these factors are shrouded in the more actors are “seeking voice of Governmental Experts complexity of sophisticated tech- Amandeep Singh Gill, A AMBASSADOR & PERMANENT others, those countries (GGE) on Lethal Autonomous nologies that are difficult to deci- and authority in the operation of REPRESENTATIVE OF INDIA TO THE UN this system” says Yul Sohn. show a strong willingness Weapons Systems (LAWS), na- pher and even harder to predict. CONFERENCE ON DISARMAMENT, GENEVA, “We will have transitions, we to continue the liberal tions remained divided on the way The UN GGE identified three SWITZERLAND will have one after another, it is international order rulebased forward for regulating these so- critical issues that need resolution phisticated weapon systems. Of for the debate to advance. First, a matter of getting the flexibility system and the TPP-11 is a PANELLISTS in ideas and institutions,” sug- the 80 countries that were gath- characterising the existing and Hugo Slim, HEAD OF POLICY & gests Memduh Karakullukcu. To good case in which United ered, 22 demanded a pre-emptive future weapon systems along a HUMANITARIAN DIPLOMACY, INTERNATIONAL view the current status of the States is not there but other ban on the use and development spectrum of autonomy that is also COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS of LAWS, while many technolog- future-proof and realistic. Second, international order from any sin- countries are working hard Lydia Kostopoulos, ADVISOR, AI ically sophisticated nations such identifying the extent of human gle perspective is a mistake. For to maintain or improve the INITIATIVE, THE FUTURE SOCIETY, HARVARD example, even as support for glo- as the US, Germany, Russia and control necessary and developing KENNEDY SCHOOL balisation wanes in the West, the liberal international system. China considered ex ante regu- frameworks to ensure it. Third, Elsa B. Kania, ADJUNCT FELLOW, developing world is keen to foster lation, “premature” and “mis- undertaking a comprehensive ex- TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY —Yul Sohn PROGRAM, CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN integration. The world has not yet guided”. At the Raisina Dialogue ercise on how autonomous weap- SECURITY 2018, a panel of experts chaired ons are likely to affect the deter- by Amb. Amandeep Gill—the per- rence calculus among nations General Chris Deverell, JOINT FORCES COMMANDER, U.K. manent representative of India to and whether their development is the Conference on Disarmament likely to spark a new 21st-century (who also chaired the UN GGE)— arms race. considered the state of technol- In undertaking these exercis- ogy and the politics that frames es, there are a few caveats that this debate. must be kept in mind. The weap- The conversation around ons may rely on dual-use technol- LAWS has raised important ques- ogies that have both civilian and tions about the way warfare may military applications and, there- evolve: by potentially removing fore, regulating military use could human consideration from the have consequences on the devel- decision of applying lethal force, opment of civilian artificial intelli- rendering the weapon and its gence (AI) systems. These weap- wielder as one. This has a bearing ons are also likely to be more than on international humanitarian law mere instruments for the direct and geopolitical stability. To make application of lethal force: they

120 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 121 can be assistive technologies for able to keep pace with the speed “The US military has command and control or targeting and complexity of future combat. reaffirmed its commitment technologies that reduce collater- This will lead to AI systems tak- al civilian casualties. A key theme ing on a greater role in command to keeping humans in the in this debate is the duality that decision-making, leaving humans loop on future autonomous exists between the sheer possi- with the supervisory role. At the weapon systems and there bilities that AI systems offer in the same time, technology is frag- are robust debate emerging future and the practical limitations ile and its functioning unreliable. of over-reliance on technology. Multiple iterations of AI technol- involving the legal and With AlphaGo’s historic defeat ogies have exhibited algorithmic ethical issues that might of Lee Sedol in the game of Go, bias in image and pattern recogni- arise. However, at this point Chinese strategists have started tion, often failing to achieve their it is less clear how China, to recognise the potential of AI to creators’ modest expectations. In create innovative tactics and strat- a battlefield, their deployment will Russia and other actors agems that can surpass even the be even more complex since it is might approach most brilliant of human contend- inadvisable to use AI-based weap- these issues”. ers. Some have even suggested ons at any considerable distance that military commanders should from human controllers. These —Elsa B. Kania similarly leverage AI to achieve de- weapons can either be jammed cision superiority. Certain Chinese through electronic warfare, ren- defence academics have consid- dering them useless, or else be ered the potential for a singularity hijacked through cyber means, in warfare, a point at which the making them dangerous. human mind might become un- Given the difficulty in predict-

“We want to make sure ing the trajectory of technology, For agencies such as the Inter- that all new weapons many experts believe that the national Committee on the Red starting point for discussion must Cross (ICRC), the resolution of are compatible with be strategic stability and the per- this unpredictability lies in interna- International Humanitarian missible use of LAWS under inter- tional law, specifically by strength- Law and we also want to national humanitarian law. Some ening weapons review processes make sure that all new countries that are in possession of under Article 36 of the Additional semi-autonomous weapons, such Protocol I of the Geneva Conven- weapons avoid humanitarian as the United States, have com- tion and cementing the principles consequences as much as mitted to never deploying weap- of necessity, proportionality and possible”. ons without adequate human precaution in the deployment of control. Others such as the United these weapons. An operating —Hugo Slim Kingdom, have pledged to never principle in this regard is that irre- develop fully autonomous weap- spective of why an autonomous on systems. It remains uncertain weapon is deployed, control over whether actors such as Russia its critical functions—such as tar- and China—considered wildcards geting, engaging and cancelling— in the great power rivalries—will should remain with human agents heed these normative constructs. under all circumstances.

122 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 123 This is a pragmatic approach tonomous systems. since it seems unlikely that these weapons will not be developed –Bedavyasa Mohanty and deployed in the future. The only thing that has stopped the deployment of these systems is the last technological leap, the A Disruptive World: final missing piece of the puzzle that will make AI weapons viable Solutions for Tomorrow Day 3 and reliable. When it comes to AI weapons—unlike many other complex issues surrounding war- fare—nations seem willing to en- “There is a real potential anaging disruptive tran- ment to promoting democracy gage in a discourse about the po- MODERATOR tential fallouts even before clear for the reduction in the sitions” was the theme and free trade and has reneged harm has been established. This is consumption of manpower of this year’s Raisina Di- on international pledges—from Samir Saran, VICE PRESIDENT, M OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION alogue, with discussions focusing the Paris Climate Change Agree- a unique opportunity to lay down for tasks that can be progressive rules of the road with- on disruptions in global politics, ment to the Trans Pacific Part- out the burdens of catastrophes automated since manpower economic relations and collec- nership—making a transatlantic PANELLISTS is a premium to a greateror tive security. Around the world, consensus on managing disrup- that have already happened. Until S. Jaishankar, FOREIGN SECRETARY, such time that these rules are de- lesser degrees for all of us, economic anxiety, new polarising tions increasingly difficult. “In a INDIA technologies, parochial nation- disruptive world, we require soli- veloped, governments must rely military manpower, reducing Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, on international law provisions, alism and geopolitical conflicts darity,” cautioned Maurice Gour- SECRETARY-GENERAL, MINISTRY OF EUROPE such as the Martens Clause, to that manpower burden is a are jeopardising the international dault-Montagne, noting that such AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS, FRANCE protect human life from the un- very attractive”. liberal order. The ideas that have was getting harder to come by. General (Retd.) David H. underpinned this order—free mar- If the liberal order appears predictable consequences of au- Petraeus, U.S. ARMY, RETIRED —General Chris Deverell kets and democracy—are fraying, incoherent in the countries that albeit unevenly across geogra- carefully crafted it for over seven phies. The universalisation of the decades, there are parts of the liberal order has clearly failed. In world that are threatening to fall many parts of the world, this or- out of this order altogether. As- der is now incoherent, contested, sessing a region stretching from or missing altogether. North Africa and the Middle East The first sign of disruption is to Pakistan, Gen. David Petraeus the continued political turmoil in was candid in his assessment, “In the transatlantic community, the the Muslim world, ungoverned traditional guarantors of the inter- spaces will be exploited by Isla- national order. While the election mist extremists.” of Emmanuel Macron and Angela Religion, new communica- Merkel seemingly stemmed the tion technologies, vested foreign flow of populism in Europe, it is powers, demographic pressures clear that the ingredients for this and weak state capacity have all new and dangerous political and contributed to an unending spi- economic trend still remain: immi- ral of war, terrorism and conflict. gration, social-media echo cham- There is no resolution in sight bers, and economic inequality. At for the humanitarian crisis that is the same time, Donald Trump is erupting in the region. Institutions desultory on America’s commit- like the United Nations have failed

124 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 125 to prevent this conflict, becoming India’s former foreign secretary, instead a forum to advance geo- S. Jaishankar, calls “non-market” political interest, reflecting the economics. complex realities of today’s multi- China has used this newfound polar world. economic power to script new It is becoming increasingly evi- interdependencies and relation- dent that the future of the interna- ships that are Sino-Centric, inev- tional order will be determined in itably promoting what US Secre- Asia, where economic and politi- tary of State Rex Tillerson calls cal power is concentrating. Thus, “predatory economics” coupled a common thread across the dis- with authoritarian rule. The Belt cussions on “disruptions” was and Road Initiative—a vast net- China, whose hybrid blend of state work of infrastructure projects capitalism and dictatorial politics that is spawning new transconti- “In this disrupted global threatens to upend the normative nental trading networks—is cen- world we must remain foundations of the international or- tral to this plan. Moreover, China independent, something der. President Xi Jinping, who has has challenged the rules-based we share very much recently anointed himself ruler of international order, most visibly in China for life, has offered “social- the South China Sea, where it has with our Indian partners. The answers to these disruptions, nerships it embraces may well be ism with Chinese characteristics militarised the region in flagrant vi- Independence doesn’t according to S. Jaishankar, would key to managing disruptions in for a new era” as a “new option” olation of established international mean splendid isolation, it be found as political and econom- the world order. for other countries. Complete con- rules and norms. ic power concentrates in the In- means the right to being –Akhil Deo trol over industry and utilisation of Today, the old order is uncer- do-Pacific, a region that stretches markets to maximise state pow- tain about how to respond to free, to choose one’s own from East Africa and to the Pacific er and legitimacy, as opposed to these disruptions. The fraying of partners”. Ocean. Home to nearly 40 per- transparent free markets, form old partnerships, revisionist new cent of the world’s population and the core of “capitalism with Chi- powers and parochial politics are —Maurice Gourdault-Montagne abundant natural resources, the nese characteristics,” or what creating a flux in the world order. strategic conceptualisation of this space links the growing wealth and security concerns of Asian and African states to three key ac- “I think the US as a disrupter tors in the region: India, China and has been disrupting for some the United States. In many ways, India is central time. Iraq was a disruption, to these disruptions. As a liber- in a sense Pakistan as has, al democracy, India’s sheer heft was, is, will be a disruption, can contribute to a post-Western the American choices on stable political Asian order. As a South Asian country bordering a Pakistan, I think the Obama state that continually sponsors Administration’s choices on terrorism, India has a natural Russia were a disruption to stake in seeing peace in the re- the conduct of international gion. Finally, as China’s primary geopolitical rival in Asia, New Del- politics”. hi is vested in preserving a rules- —S. Jaishankar based international order, along with like-minded partners. The choices India makes and the part-

126 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 127 Reimagining the Common- wealth for the 21st Century Day 3

he state of the Common- the Commonwealth that drove its wealth of Nations in the initial years. The same apprehen- MODERATOR post-Brexit era prompts us sion forces us to now reimagine Manoj Ladwa, FOUNDER & CEO, MLS T CHASE GROUP to explore new possibilities in this organisation. There is a need transforming the organisation, to to evolve and establish priorities make it more responsive to the that align with the expectations PANELLISTS evolving international realities and of its member states, mostly the Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, the needs and expectations of the developing ones. The Common- MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, BANGLADESH strength lies in unity, diversity and multiple voices, can add great val- majority of its developing mem- wealth can no longer remain sim- Tim Hitchens, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, support for equity. The panellists ue in forming global opinion and ber states. ply an association of free states COMMONWEALTH SUMMIT UNIT observed the need for increased providing pioneer leaders. As a run-up to the Common- emerging out of the British Em- deliberation on development val- By the year 2020, intra-Com- wealth Heads of Government pire system. It must graduate into Swapan Dasgupta, MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, INDIA ues adopted under the Common- monwealth trade is likely to in- Meeting in London in April, a per- an organisation with the will and wealth charter, wherein the focus crease to US$1 trillion. Given this tinent and timely panel was as- wherewithal to meet the evolv- Premdut Koonjoo, MINISTER OF OCEAN ECONOMY, MARINE RESOURCES, assumes a relatively practical and forecast, one must remember sembled at the Raisina Dialogue ing needs of its member states FISHERIES AND SHIPPING, REPUBLIC OF conclusive format. It is neces- that the joyous trade relations be- 2018, titled “Re-imagining the through collective initiatives, re- MAURITIUS sary to emphasise on growth and tween the member states did not Commonwealth for the 21st Cen- main relevant to its own citizens, Ngeyi Ruth Kanyongolo, development, trade and invest- happen because of the existence tury.” The panellists argued for a foster its values in commonality, CHANCELLOR, UNIVERSITY OF MALAWI ment, market access, reduction of Commonwealth, but despite it. Commonwealth that will recast and stand increasingly connect- of aid dependence, employment To understand what this interna- and re-centre as an organisation, ed within itself. To acknowledge opportunities, and better-quality tional body stands for in the 21st serving as a template for partner- the changing priorities and orien- “We now have new services to its people. Common- century, a fundamental reimagina- ship and collaboration in the world tations of the Commonwealth, a wealth can, therefore, be vital in tion is necessary, of the basic con- at large. fundamental change in the struc- members, for e.g. Rwanda facilitating preferential and free tours shaping it. With countries Since its inception in 1949, the ture of the organisation is neces- and Mozambique that do not trade arrangements. On the vul- such as Rwanda and Mozam- Commonwealth has represented sary. Such restructuring should necessarily that heritage and nerability front, efforts can be di- bique becoming members of the a sense of shared history, high- consider readjustment of the therefore as we are thinking rected towards enhancing the re- organisation even though they do lighting the role of the mother roles and functions of the numer- silience of underprivileged nations not enjoy the “shared heritage,” country, the importance attached ous bodies and modes of work, about moving forward, we with assistance, capacity-building, time has come to revaluate the to rule of law and democracy, and redesigning of strategies to have to rethink about the expertise and technology-transfer basis for the Commonwealth. and the unifying bond of the En- enhance the Commonwealth’s basis for the Commonwealth support for climate adaptation and While one of the values shared glish language. The importance relevance for its people and mem- beyond the shared heritage”. mitigation projects, along with by the members, regardless of attached to Brexit regarding the ber states. other cultural and creative pur- size and wealth, is equality, it future of the Commonwealth The organisation is recognised —Ngeyi Ruth Kanyongolo suits. Commonwealth, in its role is yet to be realised in practice. suggests that it was the pre-em- for executing institution-building as an international forum carrying Most of the member states, es- inence of the United Kingdom in and facilitating development. Its

128 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 129 pecially the African nations, are possible to maintain a shared un- poor; some are weak and some derstanding: agreement over nor- are dependent on Britain. As we mative issues and how to negoti- reconstruct the Commonwealth, a ate the normative framework, and genuine balance of power is criti- what defines the incentives and Bots of War: Regulations cal. Values pertinent to democra- disincentives within the Common- cy, human rights, gender equality, wealth, especially for the weaker and Safeguards for rule of law and good governance member states. The importance have significant influence across of Commonwealth Heads of Gov- Cyber Security Day 3 nations. However, since member ernment Meeting and of reimagin- states are at different levels of de- ing of the Commonwealth lies in mocratisation, adherence to these shifting the centre of gravity when values vary. There is, thus, much it comes to the Commonwealth’s “What happens to the he internet is the world’s the internet as it has happened in tension within the Common- role. MODERATOR wealth, and how this is handled Commonwealth in the most important infrastruc- the past. will guide the way forward in the –Jhoomar Mehta future does not depend ture. It is currently the pri- Under the auspices of the Shashi Tharoor, MEMBER OF T PARLIAMENT AND CHAIRMAN OF THE mary vessel for communication, United Nations, there have been 21st century. upon what Britain does or PARLIAMENTARY The question that remains is knowledge-sharing and com- five meetings of a Group of Gov- how the Commonwealth can be does not itself choose”. merce, and has also become the ernmental Experts (GGE). These structure that every other infra- groups have agreed on certain PANELLISTS effective, within itself and outside. —Tim Hitchens With Britain becoming global post structure in the world relies on. crucial issues, e.g. on what hap- Carl Bildt, FORMER PRIME MINISTER, Brexit and other member coun- The security and the stability of pens in open conflict and war SWEDEN tries repositioning themselves many systems—the security of between nations. They agree Kaja Ciglic, DIRECTOR, CYBERSECURITY within the organisation, how will our economies, the security of our that while the laws of war apply POLICY AND STRATEGY, MICROSOFT societies, and even the security of in cyberspace, by definition, they the shift in power affect the weak- Iddo Moed, CYBER SECURITY er countries? The focus, therefore our lives in the future—depends can only apply during war. Most COORDINATOR, MINISTRY OF FOREIGN is the extent to which it will be on the stability of the internet. A of the current discussions, there- AFFAIRS, ISRAEL crucial concern, therefore, is the fore, focus on the rules that apply Seán Paul McGurk, SENIOR POLICY lack of any clear rules of the road in the absence of war. The latest ADVISOR, INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS INFORMATION SHARING AND ANALYSIS for online behaviour. attempt, which included both the CENTER There have been numerous permanent members and a num- attempts to establish the rules of ber of other countries such as Gulshan Rai, NATIONAL CYBER SECURITY COORDINATOR, PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE, the game, including the consid- India and Estonia, failed to come INDIA eration of different governance to an agreement on a number of mechanisms. From one global specific issues. However, there commission that reinforced the was consensus on the need to openness of the internet there is stop states from attacking critical now another one that discusses infrastructure. primarily the stability of cyber- That the GGE could not suc- space, safeguarding the multis- cessfully find solutions at a global takeholder model of governance, level is not in itself a bad thing. The safeguarding the rules concerning process started in 1999 and sev- surveillance and establishing and eral meetings were conducted. It safeguarding a norm to protect is time now to work in breakout the core of the internet. This will groups, to have likeminded coun- ensure that countries and other tries first agree on central issues, interest holders do not tamper and have a clear understanding of with the key and core functions of what cyber security means. From

130 / CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 CONFERENCE REPORT • 16-18 JANUARY 2018 / 131 there, the discussion can move to of course, always be violations. a global forum and continue there However, by laying down rules with the help of other fora. of behaviour, the framework will Microsoft proposed a Digital hopefully make countries think Geneva Convention as a long- twice before they act. term goal, but looked at it predom- While attribution of cyber-at- inantly as an opportunity to work tacks remains a challenge, it has on actual text and on actual con- improved dramatically over the vention by bringing governments past few years in the private sec- together, working on a tech-sector tor as well as in the government. accord to bring the industry to- The last such attribution was gether, and promoting responsi- around December 2017, when the “If you look overall at ble behaviour in cyberspace. The US, the UK, Australia and Japan basically mass market vision is to bridge public, private attributed the WannaCry ransom- products available, very few and civil society to help evolve ware publicly to North Korea. people’s understanding of attribu- One of the biggest challenges have been designed with an tion and cyber threats. today is putting together glob- idea in mind that perhaps The proposals put forward fo- al information-sharing protocols your best customers, often cused completely on responsible and regimes. Actors now move governments, might be behaviour of states in cyberspace, at the speed of machines, while particularly on improving the cur- companies—both private sector the same people who are to be attacked. Thus, by sharing rent international law, because and governments—still move at actually using your product, capabilities and artefacts, a global there are several gaps in it that the speed of bureaucracy. There- exploiting your product to protective approach can be estab- states exploit. While no solution fore, it is important to have au- attack other customers of lished. can be perfect, the proposal aims tonomous sharing-capability (not yours. Very few, if any, of to (a) spark a debate and (b) be necessarily command-and-control –Bedavyasa Mohanty eventually adopted in about 15 from an autonomous response these products have been years. The ultimate goal is to de- standpoint), so that if one sector built to basically resist lineate the difference between is attacked, it is possible to spot military grade attacks”. responsible and irresponsible be- the same indicator or that same haviour on the internet. There will, artefact in another sector about —Kaja Ciglic

“In contrast to kinetic war when you bomb someone you set a bomb and either you hit or you don’t hit, but the bomb disappears. That is for certain. If you do that in cyber world, you send a cyber weapon of the one sort or the other, you might hit it or not but the weapon doesn’t disappear”. —Carl Bildt

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