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Appendix B: Consumer Acceptance of Zero Emission Vehicles and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

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Appendix B: Consumer Acceptance of Zero Emission Vehicles and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Californias Advanced Clean Cars Midterm Review Appendix B: Consumer Acceptance of Zero Emission Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles January 18, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................. ii LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................i vi I. Key Findings ...................................................................................................................... 1 II. Introduction and Background .............................................................................................. 4 II.A. Data Sources ............................................................................................................... 4 III. Recent Market Development and Current Status ............................................................... 4 III.A. Historic and Current Sales Trends ............................................................................ 5 III.A.1. Model Availability............................................................................................... 6 III.A.2. U.S. ZEV and PHEV Sales ................................................................................ 8 III.A.3. Dealership Vehicle Availability ..........................................................................25 III.A.4. New Vehicle Manufacturer Suggested Retail Prices of ZEVs and PHEVs ........30 III.B. Consumer Awareness and Knowledge of ZEVs and PHEVs ...................................38 III.B.1. UC Davis 2015 Survey of New Car Buyers’ ZEV Valuation ..............................39 III.B.2. Morpace Powertrain Acceptance and Consumer Engagement Surveys ...........42 III.B.3. NREL CARAVAN Surveys ................................................................................49 III.B.4. Consumer Federation of America Surveys .......................................................50 III.B.5. Effect of behind the wheel experience and more information ............................50 III.C. Current ZEV consumer purchase behavior ..............................................................53 III.C.1. ZEV Purchaser Characteristics .........................................................................54 III.C.2. ZEV Purchase Motivations ...............................................................................71 III.C.3. Role of dealers .................................................................................................86 III.C.4. Purchase Barriers.............................................................................................89 III.C.5. Current ZEV and PHEV Consumer Attitudes ....................................................93 IV. Long-term Consumer Acceptance Potential ...................................................................97 IV.A. Future model availability ..........................................................................................97 IV.B. Future consumer purchase behavior .....................................................................100 IV.B.1. Current ZEV and PHEV drivers ......................................................................100 IV.B.2. Conventional new car buyers .........................................................................102 IV.B.3. Future Incentives ............................................................................................ 106 IV.C. The Secondary ZEV Market ..................................................................................107 IV.C.1. UC Davis Secondary PEV Market Research Project ......................................108 B - ii IV.C.2. Migration of Used PEVs and Comparable Vehicles ........................................111 IV.C.3. Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program (EFMP) and Plus-Up Pilot Program . 115 IV.C.4. Other Analyses ...............................................................................................116 V. Economic Impacts of ZEVs and Advanced Technology Vehicles ....................................119 V.A. Automotive Sector’s Recovery ..................................................................................120 V.B. ZEV and Advanced Technology Vehicle Jobs ...........................................................121 V.C. ZEV and Advanced Technology Vehicle Investments ............................................125 VI. References ...................................................................................................................128 VII. Data Source Descriptions .............................................................................................134 VII.A. Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers ZEV Sales Dashboard ("Dashboard data") . 134 VII.B. Experian Vehicle and Consumer Demographic data ("Experian Automotive data") 134 VII.C. California Department of Motor Vehicles Registration data ("DMV data") .............. 134 VII.D. Dealer Inventory data from Edmunds.com ("Edmunds.com Inventory data") ......... 135 VII.E. Ward's Automotive Data Center ("WardsAuto data") .............................................136 VII.F. Automotive News Data Center ("AutoNews data") .................................................136 VII.G. Clean Vehicle Rebate Programs and Surveys .......................................................138 VII.G.1. California Clean Vehicle Consumer Survey ("CVRP results") ......................... 138 VII.G.2. Connecticut Hydrogen and Electric Automobile Purchase Rebate ("CHEAPR results") 139 VII.G.3. Massachusetts Offers Rebates for Electric Vehicles ("MOR-EV results") ....... 140 VII.G.4. California PEV Ownership Survey ("Ownership results") ................................141 VII.H. Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program and Plus-Up Pilot Program ..................... 142 VII.I. Powertrain Acceptance & Consumer Engagement survey ("PACE Survey") ......... 142 VII.J. Alternative Fuels Data Center ("AFDC HEV sales data") .......................................143 VII.K. CNCDA’s California Auto Outlook Report ("CNCDA Quarterly Reports") ............... 143 VII.L. ARB-contracted research ......................................................................................144 B - iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - ZEV + PHEV model diversity CY2010-January 2017 ................................................. 8 Figure 2 - Total U.S. ZEV and PHEV sales and market share CY2011 through June 2016 ........ 9 Figure 3 - HEV model diversity by manufacturer CY2000-2015 ................................................10 Figure 4 - Early market model diversity by technology type .......................................................11 Figure 5 - HEV annual U.S. sales volumes by manufacturer CY2000-2015 ..............................12 Figure 6 - Comparison of ZEV and PHEV sales to HEV sales in early years of U.S. market .....12 Figure 7 - ZEV and PHEV sales by region CY2011 through June 2016 ....................................13 Figure 8 - ZEV/PHEV sales splits by region CY2011 through June 2016 ..................................14 Figure 9 - California ZEV and PHEV sales volumes CY2011 through June 2016 ......................15 Figure 10 - Section 177 State ZEV and PHEV sales volumes CY2011 through June 2016 .......16 Figure 11 - Annual California ZEV new registrations by model CY2011-2015 ...........................17 Figure 12 - Annual California PHEV (TZEV and BEVx) new registrations by model CY2011- 2015 ..........................................................................................................................................17 Figure 13 - Annual Section 177 ZEV State ZEV new registrations by model CY2011-2015 ......18 Figure 14 - Annual Section 177 ZEV State PHEV (TZEV and BEVx) new registrations by model CY2011-2015 ............................................................................................................................18 Figure 15 - ZEV and PHEV market share of manufacturer total sales in California CY2014 and CY2015 ....................................................................................................................................20 Figure 16 - Manufacturer market shares in California for CY2015 .............................................21 Figure 17 - Market share by segment in California CY 2015 .....................................................22 Figure 18 - Market shares of top 5 models within each Segment in California CY 2015 ...........23 Figure 19 - Market share of 300 conventional, PHEV, and ZEV models in U.S. CY2015 ..........24 Figure 20 - Global PEV sales CY2011-2015 .............................................................................25 Figure 21 - Average daily number of PEVs available at dealerships by city ...............................27 Figure 22 - Percent breakdown between PEV and conventional vehicle model availability - Ford Fusion Energi ............................................................................................................................28 Figure 23 - Percent breakdown between PEV and conventional vehicle model availability .......29 Figure 24 - Sales volume and number of models by base price Jan-Aug 2016 .........................31 Figure 25 - ZEV and PHEV sales volume and number of models by base price Jan-Aug 2016 .33 Figure 26 - ZEV and PHEV sales volume and number of models
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