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Blizzard of 2013: February 8-9 Compiled by Nick Panico

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Blizzard of 2013: February 8-9 Compiled by Nick Panico BLIZZARD OF 2013: FEBRUARY 8-9 COMPILED BY NICK PANICO. THIS MAY NOT BE SHARED ON ANY WEBSITE, FORUM, BLOG, GROUP, OR ANY OTHER FORM OF SOCIAL MEDIA OR PRINT WITHOUT THE CONSENT OF NICK PANICO. IF YOU ARE GRANTED PERMISSION I ASK THAT YOU GIVE FULL CREDIT TO NICK F. PANICO III WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/GROUPS/TARCWEATHER INTRO: A high impact winter storm brought rain, wind, and record heavy snow to the eastern United States on 8-9 February 2013. The heavy snow from southeastern New York and Long Island, across Connecticut and into Maine was the result of a strong cyclone which tracked up the East Coast on 8 February before interacting with a northern stream wave. The two systems merged during the evening hours of 8 February 2013. During this merger period intense snowfall affect central Long Island and Connecticut producing areas of 30 to 40 inches of snowfall. From a historic perspective this storm was compared to the February 1978 Storm. This was a top 5 snowfall event in many locations across southern and eastern New England and for many sites in Long Island and Connecticut is the new snowfall of record or the most snow recorded since the 1888 Blizzard. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02082013.html Many residents of the Northeast didn’t welcome the potential blizzard of February with open arms. The blizzard came on the heels of a historic late season hybrid storm at the very end of October in 2012 named Sandy that had the dubbed names such as Frankenstorm and Superstorm Sandy. Many residents were still without full access to their homes, or left without homes all together. Interior New England still had residents getting their lives and property back together after a historic flooding event took place as Tropical Storm Irene went inland at the end of August, 2011. The Northeast had their share fair of severe weather within 2011 and 2012 and they certainly weren’t hoping for anything else historic to come by. (Courtesy of M. Gross) PRE-STORM: On February 6 one of the most legendary winter storm analysts in the world, Paul Kocin, wrote a sensational analysis of what could happen for the National Weather Service's Hydrometerological Prediction Center. In part he wrote: " THE 12Z RUNS INCREASINGLY POINT TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURES OF THE LOW FALL TO THE 970S TO LOW 980S WITHIN THE 12Z RUNS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE FOUND JUST NORTHWEST FROM WHERE THE CYCLONE DECELERATES AND EVEN MAY MAKE A BIT OF A LOOP AROUND ITSELF ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ALSO SHOW THE LOW THEN MAKING A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE PULLING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SAME KIND OF BEHAVIOR EXHIBITED BY SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...SUCH AS THE MORE RECENT BLIZZARD OF 2005/APRIL FOOLS BLIZZARD OF 1997...THAT THIS STORM MAY ALSO EXHIBIT." http://ctaudubon.blogspot.com/2013/02/blizzard-of-2013-part-ii.html Weenie Dreams: (For those of you who don’t follow weather circles regularly I will mention what a weather weenie is here.) A weather weenie is: -A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. -Weenies often inhabit Internet message boards and issue "wishcasts", which are forecasts based on the author's desire for extreme weather. They try to justify their wishcasts with anecdotes and pseudoscience. -While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecasts, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. -When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bittercasts", which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. -Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. (This is how I came up with the name TARC: Tropical Anonymous Rehab Center, several years ago. I constantly observed how many weather enthusiasts in Facebook Groups would react during the tropical season when a hurricane would weaken or go out to sea. They would argue with other members which often resulted in them getting banned or removed from the group. I could almost sense when this would happen and I figured that these individuals needed to go to “Tropical Rehab”. http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=weather%20weenie At that point it was thought the storm could rival some of the greatest ever but would not take its eventual place near the top. The North American Model (NAM) that runs out to 84 hours four times a day insisted during several runs that we would see enormous amounts of precipitation. It yielded 73.3 inches of snow for Boston and about 97 inches in Maine at one point. It is notorious for exaggerating actual totals and this provided some good laughs throughout the day. Still, the situation kept changing and on the 12z Euro run on Thursday, February 7, we saw how much of the area could get over two feet of snow as it came in with more precipitation and was even colder. Bridgeport's climate station (at the Stratford airport) would have received 2.84 inches of water on that run, 100% of it being snow, and conservative estimates would make that nearly 30 inches. As we moved into Friday, February 8, the NAM continued to tell us there would be an insane amount of water falling across some parts of the area. It became more realistic (but still seeming like a fantasy) with amounts topping out around four inches and if even half of that actually fell it would be around two feet of snow. The Euro was trending colder and wetter with possibly over 30 inches of snow in some areas, and the fact the NAM continued with this the day before and of the storm made many people wonder if it would somehow produce such an area of three or more feet. The Global Forecast System (GFS), America's long-range model, had trouble with the storm nearly until the end. At the very least it did keep insisting it would be further east and keep areas like New York City outside of huge totals, and in this way it was correct. (Courtesy: Timmy Belles) (Courtesy: Hans VanBenschoten) It is notorious for exaggerating actual totals and this provided some good laughs throughout the day. Still, the situation kept changing and on the 12z Euro run on Thursday, February 7, we saw how much of the area could get over two feet of snow as it came in with more precipitation and was even colder. Bridgeport's climate station (at the Stratford airport) would have received 2.84 inches of water on that run, 100% of it being snow, and conservative estimates would make that nearly 30 inches. Below is a QPF from the 00z NAM on Feb 7. Totals of up to 5” of liquid precipitation were being modeled. The storm was relatively well predicted 1 to 3 days in advance and the European Centers high resolution model provide some insight into storm potential about 6 days in advance. As the storm approached and the forecast length decreased the models and ensemble prediction systems produced a deep cyclone with an anchoring intense anticyclone to the north, resulting in forecasts of 850hPa winds -5 to 6 σ below normal, implying a near record if not historic event. With the strong frontal forcing implied by the strong winds, both model and ensemble forecast system quantitative precipitation forecasts were on the order of 25 to 50 mm in areas where the predicted precipitation type was forecast to fall mainly as snow. Forecasts of 18 to 38 inches were common in SREF forecasts at least 48 hour prior to the onset of precipitation http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2013/09Feb2013.pdf Preparation: Millions of people in the Northeast and New England battened down today for a weekend blizzard today. Forecasters warned it could be one for the record books. By this afternoon, the gathering storm was beginning to whiten the landscape for hundreds of miles, with long hours of snowfall still to come. Fueling this storm is two low-pressure systems, one from the Midwest, the other from the Southeast, colliding over the Northeast and New England. Blizzard warnings were posted in seven states from New Jersey on up to Maine. At least three declared emergencies, and schools closed in a number of cities. Forecasters predicted New England would get the worst of it, with up to three feet of snow likely in Boston. BERNIE RAYNO, AccuWeather: Well, I will tell you what. The worst of this storm, as we have been pointing out all week, is going to be across Southern New England. Two storms, as you mentioned, and the first storm across the Midwest already producing quite a bit of snow across parts of New York State. But it’s the second storm as it strengthens and moves north and northeast, we’re already starting to get bands of heavy snow now across New England in toward Boston, Providence, Hartford, snowing in New York City.
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