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Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific

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Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific october 2013 Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific October 2013 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2015 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org; openaccess.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2015. Printed in the Philippines ISBN 978-92-9257-228-0 (Print), 978-92-9257-229-7 (e-ISBN) Publication Stock No. BKK157608-2 Cataloging-In-Publication Data Asian Development Bank. Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2015. 1. Energy. 2. Asia and the Pacific. I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of said license as well as the Terms of Use of the ADB Open Access Repository at openaccess.adb.org/termsofuse This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Attribution—In acknowledging ADB as the source, please be sure to include all of the following information: Author. Year of publication. Title of the material. © Asian Development Bank [and/or Publisher]. https://openaccess.adb.org. Available under a CC BY 3.0 IGO license. Translations—Any translations you create should carry the following disclaimer: Originally published by the Asian Development Bank in English under the title [title] © [Year of publication] Asian Development Bank. All rights reserved. The quality of this translation and its coherence with the original text is the sole responsibility of the [translator]. The English original of this work is the only official version. Adaptations—Any adaptations you create should carry the following disclaimer: This is an adaptation of an original Work © Asian Development Bank [Year]. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not endorse this work or guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Please contact [email protected] or [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. In this report, the term “Taipei City” refers to the urban area centered on the City of Taipei or Taipei,China. ADB recognizes “Kyrgyzstan” as the Kyrgyz Republic and “Laos” as the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Unless otherwise stated, boxes, figures and tables without explicit sources were prepared by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. Contents Preface vi Acknowledgments vii Abbreviations viii Definitions ix Executive Summary x Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case 13 2.1 Main Assumptions 14 2.2 Primary Energy Demand by Type 18 2.3 Primary Energy Demand by Region 23 2.4 Energy Intensity 26 2.5 Energy Production and Imports 28 Chapter 3 Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case 37 3.1 Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook 38 3.2 Industry Sector 40 3.3 Transport Sector 45 3.4 Other Sectors 52 Chapter 4 Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Alternative Case 63 4.1 Primary Energy Demand: Savings Potential by Source 64 4.2 Primary Energy Demand: Savings Potential by Region 66 4.3 Primary Energy Demand: Savings Potential by Sector 66 4.4 Industry Energy Savings Potential 69 4.5 Transport Energy Savings Potential 72 4.6 Residential and Commercial Energy Savings Potential 76 Chapter 5 Electricity Outlook 81 5.1 Electricity Demand 82 5.2 Electricity Generation 83 5.3 Comparison of the Business-as-Usual and Alternative Cases 86 Chapter 6 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Outlook 91 6.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 92 6.2 Carbon Dioxide Intensity 94 6.3 Carbon Dioxide Per Capita 94 6.4 Comparison of the Business-as-Usual and Alternative Cases 96 Chapter 7 Energy Investment Outlook 101 7.1 Energy Investment Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case 102 7.2 Energy Investment Outlook: Alternative Case 106 7.3 Financing Implications 110 Chapter 8 Central and West Asia 111 8.1 Afghanistan 114 8.2 Armenia 120 iii iv Contents 8.3 Azerbaijan 127 8.4 Georgia 133 8.5 Kazakhstan 139 8.6 Kyrgyz Republic 146 8.7 Pakistan 152 8.8 Tajikistan 159 8.9 Turkmenistan 166 8.10 Uzbekistan 172 Chapter 9 East Asia 179 9.1 People’s Republic of China 182 9.2 Hong Kong, China 190 9.3 Republic of Korea 196 9.4 Mongolia 202 9.5 Taipei,China 209 Chapter 10 The Pacific 217 10.1 Fiji 220 10.2 Papua New Guinea 226 10.3 Timor-Leste 232 10.4 Other Pacific Islands 238 Chapter 11 South Asia 245 11.1 Bangladesh 248 11.2 Bhutan 255 11.3 India 261 11.4 Maldives 268 11.5 Nepal 274 11.6 Sri Lanka 280 Chapter 12 Southeast Asia 287 12.1 Brunei Darussalam 290 12.2 Cambodia 297 12.3 Indonesia 304 12.4 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 311 12.5 Malaysia 317 12.6 Myanmar 323 12.7 Philippines 330 12.8 Singapore 336 12.9 Thailand 342 12.10 Viet Nam 349 Chapter 13 Developed Group 357 13.1 Australia 360 13.2 Japan 366 13.3 New Zealand 373 Appendix 1 Historical Performance 381 Appendix 2 Outlook Cases 429 General References 522 Contents v Boxes 2.1 Electricity Import and Export within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Member States for Regional Cooperation 16 2.2 North American Shale Gas Development and Impacts on Asia 22 2.3 Prospects for Electrification in Asia 25 2.4 Fuel Subsidies 28 2.5 Energy Supply from Central and West Asia 33 3.1 Challenges for Biofuels in Asia 39 3.2 Energy Efficiency and Conservation in Asia and the Pacific 42 3.3 Low-Carbon City 50 3.4 Mass Rapid Transit—Potential for Energy Savings and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction 55 3.5 Renewable Energy 57 3.6 Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage in Developing Members of Asia and the Pacific 59 3.7 Advanced Power Generation Technologies and Challenges in Deployment 60 Preface he Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific aims to support ADB energy sector operations by providing stakeholders with an energy outlook for the region up to the year 2035. T It attempts to identify policy, social, infrastructure, and technology issues that must be addressed to meet future energy need of ADB members in Asia and the Pacific. The first edition of the Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, which provided an energy supply and demand outlook for the region up to 2030, was published by ADB in 2009. Since then however, there have been various developments affecting the energy sectors of both developed and developing economies that justify this update, including (i) the lasting economic recession in major developed energy-consuming countries and its impact on other parts of the world, (ii) geopolitical and social unrest in the Middle East and Africa, (iii) repercussions of the Fukushima nuclear incident on nuclear energy development programs, (iv) aging energy infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific, and (v) expansion in renewable energy development and energy efficiency improvements within the region. In contrast to other energy outlooks that deal solely with whole regions, this report also focuses on the local characteristics of the ADB members in Asia and the Pacific, with the intention of providing critical and strategic insights into the energy sector of individual ADB members. This report presents two cases of energy demand and supply for the ADB member economies in Asia and the Pacific: (i) a business-as-usual case, which reflects the impact of existing policies and current technology levels on future energy demand and energy choice, as well as assumes that current trends in the development of new and renewable energy sources will continue into the future; and (ii) an alternative case that considers the potential for energy savings on both the demand and the supply sides from the deployment of advanced and low-carbon technologies to increase energy security in the region. The study also presents the results of analyses made to estimate carbon dioxide emissions and investments required on the supply and demand sides for both the business-as-usual and the alternative cases.
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