100 80 60 40 20 0 The secretariat of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre for the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. It provides the strategic link between global and country-level programmes and issues. It supports Governments of countries in the region in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region’s unique socio-economic challenges in a globalizing world. The ESCAP secretariat is located in Bangkok, Thailand. Please visit the ESCAP website at <www.unescap.org> for further information. The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members. Cover design by Bryan Joseph Granados Sabroso ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2006 Energizing the global economy New York, 2006 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2006 Energizing the global economy United Nations publication Sales No. E.06.II.F.10 Copyright © United Nations 2006 All rights reserved Manufactured in Thailand ISBN: 92-1-120462-3 ISSN: 0252-5704 ST/ESCAP/2396 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non- profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source is acknowledged. The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use may be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of reproduction, should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations, New York. ii FOREWORD Many economies in the ESCAP region continue to perform impressively, and the region as a whole is now a major contributor to global growth. In 2005, growth in gross domestic product slowed only slightly, and inflation remained mild by historical standards despite high energy prices. The risks associated with global imbalances and the danger that avian influenza could develop into a pandemic loom in the background. But the broad consensus of opinion among experts is that such risks are unlikely to affect the region’s progress in 2006. Still, the region continues to face serious and urgent demands. In many countries, economic growth is not generating enough well-paying jobs or even enough to absorb new entrants to the workforce. Inequality within countries appears to be on the rise. The environment continues to deteriorate, with deforestation, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, and air and water pollution constantly on the rise. Across the region, the least developed and Pacific island countries remain marginalized, unable to participate fully in the region’s dynamism. South Asia, where GDP growth rates have risen dramatically in the last two years, must sustain that growth and translate it into a better quality of life for the poor. Central Asian economies are making good progress, but integration into the wider global economy remains a daunting challenge. In East and South-East Asia, pockets of poverty continue to exist. Thus there is no room for complacency. Governments must continue to strive for development through a combination of macroeconomic prudence and strong investment in the future – in physical, social and human assets – so that the pace of progress can be maintained and its fruits shared more equitably. As a document of record, and one which has sought to encapsulate and analyse the changing panorama of this vast and diverse part of the world over many years, the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific performs a valuable service for readers both in the ESCAP region and elsewhere. The 2006 Survey also provides Governments in the region with a range of policy options for dealing with the challenges facing them in the years ahead. I commend it to a wide global audience. Kofi A. Annan Secretary-General March 2006 iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2006 was prepared primarily by the Poverty and Development Division of the ESCAP secretariat with important contributions made by the Least Developed Countries Coordination Unit, Office of the Executive Secretary, the Trade and Investment Division and the Emerging Social Issues Division. Ravi Ratnayake, Chief, Poverty and Development Division, was responsible for overall production and led a team of experts from within and outside the ESCAP secretariat with the assistance of Shamika Sirimanne, Shahid Ahmed, Amarakoon Bandara and Eugene Gherman. The staff members of the Poverty and Development Division who prepared the Survey 2006 included: Shahid Ahmed, Amarakoon Bandara, Shuvojit Banerjee, Pradip Bhatnagar, Eugene Gherman, Nobuko Kajiura, Muhammad H. Malik, Syed Nuruzzaman, Hiren Sarkar, Seok-Dong Wang and Juthathip Jongwanich. Inputs for the Survey 2006 also came from Aynul Hasan, Hirohito Toda and Marin Yari of the Least Developed Countries Coordination Unit. Staff analysis was based on data and information available up to the end of February 2006. Research assistance was provided by Somchai Congtavinsutti, Kiatkanid Pongpanich and Amornrut Supornsinchai. All graphics work was done by Somchai Congtavinsutti. The logistics of processing and administrative action were handled by Dusdeemala Kanittanon and Woranut Sompitayanurak. Major inputs for the Survey 2006 were received from the following external consultants: Mushtaq Ahmad, Tarun Das, Ron Duncan, Muhammad Allah Malik Kazemi, Yuba Raj Khatiwada, Mohammad Korbache, Panom Lathouly, George Manzano, Hang Chuon Naron, Penjore, and Vo Tri Thanh. The substantive editing of the manuscript was provided by Communications Development Incorporated headed by Bruce Ross-Larson. The support, comments and contributions from the Statistics Division, the Editorial Unit, and other Divisions in the ESCAP are noted with appreciation. iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The global economy grew by 3.2 per cent in 2005, down from growth of 4.0 per cent in 2004. Notwithstanding the slight deceleration, performance in 2005 was remarkable in view of an increasingly adverse economic environment, led by high and volatile oil prices, widening current account imbalances and a softening of global trade. Economic growth in 2005 was driven essentially by the strong performance of China and the United States of America. The growth rate of ESCAP developing countries decelerated moderately, by about 1 percentage point, in 2005 owing largely to high oil and commodity prices and the global slowdown in trade. The rise in oil and other commodity prices did, however, increase inflation in 2005 relative to 2004, although the increase in prices throughout the region remained mild by historical standards. Economies adjusted well to the higher oil and commodity prices, some attenuating the effects of those prices by continuing to subsidize petroleum products and others by pre-emptively tightening monetary policy, and these measures served to dampen inflationary expectations. Prospects for the ESCAP region for 2006 indicate that output growth should maintain its current momentum while price pressures are likely to abate somewhat despite continuing high energy and commodity prices. The principal policy issues and challenges facing the region over the next 12 months are concerned with the course of oil prices, the threat of global external payment imbalances unwinding precipitously, the impact of higher interest rates and the potential for the avian influenza to develop into a human pandemic. Longer-term issues relate to the ongoing challenge of poverty reduction, utilizing the benefits of home remittances to simultaneously improve social indicators and macroeconomic fundamentals, and re-energizing the trade liberalization agenda following the Sixth World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference, held in Hong Kong, China, in December 2005. Oil prices Oil prices have doubled since the beginning of 2004 and have trebled since 2002 as global demand has exceeded limited supplies, especially of petroleum products. Despite the high prices of oil there has been no sign yet of a major global economic slowdown. Notwithstanding these factors, the Asian and Pacific region, which is highly dependent on oil, remains vulnerable to any significant increase in oil prices in 2006. ESCAP forecasts assume that oil prices in 2006 will be similar to those prevailing in 2005, i.e., in the $50-$55 range. However, net oil-importing countries need to take steps to prepare for the risk of a large increase in oil prices both to mitigate the adverse social impact of such prices as well as to counter their negative macroeconomic effects. In this regard, streamlining the existing system of subsidies is clearly warranted, particularly when the subsidies do not reach the intended groups. In view of the fiscal burden on Governments, subsidies on fuel types that are not widely used by the poor could be phased out. Within the region, the least developed countries in particular face significant vulnerabilities as a result of rising oil prices. These countries have little access to alternative sources of financing to cushion a temporary increase in balance of payments deficits caused by high oil prices. Therefore, international financial institutions need to provide, or v arrange, financial assistance for these countries as was done in the 1970s through the oil facility of the International Monetary Fund. Net oil exporters of the region, for example in Central Asia, also need to adjust to rising income from oil. The focus should be on efficiently managing the oil windfalls without jeopardizing short-term macroeconomic stability, as there is likely to be pressure on real exchange rates to appreciate. Both oil-importing and -exporting countries should take steps to develop a longer-term policy response to reduce their dependency on oil, improve energy efficiency and promote energy conservation.