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Tropical Storm Karl eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Tropical Storm Karl Information from NHC Advisory 8, 5:00 AM AST Fri September 16, 2016 Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-southwestward motion is possible Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 45 mph Position Relative to 1870 miles E of the Leeward Speed: (tropical storm) Land: Islands Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 1005 mb Coordinates: 18 N.3, 33.4 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 160 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 280 degrees at 13 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) shows Karl moving generally westward towards the Leeward Islands over the next few days. ■ The wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, also shows Karl moving towards the Leeward Islands over the next few days. To illustrate the uncertainty in Karl’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Karl Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Karl (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 00:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.) © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Karl. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic Season to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 TS Karl Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 TS Julia 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/16/16) 11 4 1 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016 TS Ian 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 09/16/15) 8 2 1 8 TS Hermine 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Gaston TS Fiona 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Earl TS Danielle 2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 4 HU Hermine TS Colin HU Gaston (Colorado State University at July 1,‘16) TS Bonnie HU Earl 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Karl is the eleventh named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Season. Last year saw eight named storms by September 16, one average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It of which was major hurricane Danny. shows, for example, that Karl became the season’s eleventh named storm on September 15. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season with an elongated area of low pressure located over the Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Development of this system, if any, both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average should be slow to occur before it moves inland over Texas by remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Saturday. Formation chances are 10% through 2 days and 10% September 16 is 40% for all hurricanes and 34% for major hurricanes. through 5 days. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa today and move generally west- northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic. Some development of this wave is possible before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of next week. Formation chances are 20% through 2 days and 50% through 5 days. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook on September 16, 2016 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 2 .
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