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eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Tropical Karl Information from NHC Advisory 8, 5:00 AM AST Fri September 16, 2016 Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-southwestward motion is possible Saturday night. Maximum sustained are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC) Max Sustained 45 mph Position Relative to 1870 miles E of the Leeward Speed: (tropical storm) Land: Islands Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central : 1005 mb Coordinates: 18 N.3, 33.4 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 160 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 280 degrees at 13 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) shows Karl moving generally westward towards the Leeward Islands over the next few days.

■ The wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, also shows Karl moving towards the Leeward Islands over the next few days. To illustrate the uncertainty in Karl’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Karl Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Karl (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 00:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Karl.

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 TS Karl Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 TS Julia 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/16/16) 11 4 1 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016 TS Ian

2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 09/16/15) 8 2 1 8 TS Hermine

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Gaston TS Fiona

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Earl TS Danielle 2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 4 HU Hermine TS Colin HU Gaston ( State University at July 1,‘16) TS Bonnie HU Earl 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Karl is the eleventh named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Season. Last year saw eight named storms by September 16, one average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It of which was major . shows, for example, that Karl became the season’s eleventh named storm on September 15. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Potential and Average Remaining Risk

Shower and activity has diminished in association Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season with an elongated area of low pressure located over the Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Development of this system, if any, both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average should be slow to occur before it moves inland over by remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Saturday. Formation chances are 10% through 2 days and 10% September 16 is 40% for all hurricanes and 34% for major hurricanes. through 5 days. A is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa today and move generally west- northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic. Some development of this wave is possible before conditions become less favorable for formation by the middle of next week. Formation chances are 20% through 2 days and 50% through 5 days.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook on September 16, 2016 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652

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