Energy Transition in Singapore: a System Dynamics Analysis on Policy Choices for a Sustainable Future
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Energy Transition in Singapore: A System Dynamics Analysis on Policy Choices for a Sustainable Future by Zhiyu Chen B.Sc. Biochemistry (First Class Honours) McGill University (Montréal, Québec) 2013 SUBMITTED TO THE SYSTEM DESIGN AND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FEBRUARY 2020 © 2020 Zhiyu Chen. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author: a Zhiyu Chen System Design and Management Program December 11, 2019 Certified By: | Michael W. Golay, Ph.D. Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering Thesis Supervisor Certified By: a John M. Reilly, Ph.D. Senior Lecturer and Co-Director of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Thesis Reader Accepted By: a Joan S. Rubin Executive Director, System Design and Management 1 [This page is intentionally left blank.] 2 Energy Transition in Singapore: A System Dynamics Analysis on Policy Choices for a Sustainable Future by Zhiyu Chen Submitted to the System Design and Management Program on December 11, 2019 In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering and Management Abstract 95% of Singapore’s electricity is generated from imported natural gas, which poses fundamental economic and security risks. Solar power is the only local renewable energy resource available but it is insufficient to meet all electricity demand. There is value to consider what Singapore can do to maintain competitive advantage as a country while diversifying its electricity generation landscape and lowering its greenhouse gas emissions. A system dynamics model was built and different key policy scenarios were simulated to observe potential outcomes of Singapore’s electricity landscape by 2100. Model findings suggest that the current Business-As-Usual (BAU) path of focusing on energy efficiency initiatives, maximizing local solar resources, and continual usage of natural gas fired plants is a good short-term to mid-term strategy but a poor long-term strategy. The recommended strategy of adding nuclear into the energy mix through offshore floating nuclear plants has the lowest long-run socioeconomic costs. Adding both nuclear and importing renewable based electricity as part of the ASEAN Power Grid as a strategy requires the highest total infrastructure investments. Both alternatives provide reliable outcomes in lowering greenhouse gas emissions and have the potential to promote greater multilateral relationships and economic co-development between Singapore and its neighbors. Thesis Supervisor: Michael W. Golay, Ph.D. Title: Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering Thesis Reader: John M. Reilly, Ph.D. Title: Senior Lecturer and Co-Director of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change 3 [This page is intentionally left blank.] 4 Acknowledgements The last 16 months as an MIT student has been an incredibly enriching experience for me in the academic and personal level. The journey through MIT while being a first-time father was a difficult one and I am thankful that everything has turned out much better than expected. Having the flexibility to do part of the degree back in Singapore so that I could spend time with my wife and watch my daughter grow up in her initial year was something that I would be eternally grateful for. I would like to first thank the Singapore’s Ministry of Defence and the Singapore Armed Forces for sponsoring my postgraduate studies in MIT. I would also like to thank all my work mentors who gave their best effort in guiding and supporting me over the years. Next, I would like to thank my thesis advisor, Professor Michael W. Golay, for his time and guidance over the year. His insights on the ASEAN geopolitical development, energy landscape, and long-term policy considerations for Singapore have been helpful and thought provoking. I would also like to thank Dr. John M. Reilly for his incredible inputs, especially on the economic modelling of electricity markets, and for reviewing this thesis. I would also wish to thank all MIT instructors whom have taught me as it was their teaching that provided the inspiration and foundations for this thesis. I would like to express my appreciation to the System Design and Management staff for their assistance throughout the program, and my fellow classmates for their friendship and wisdom that made the long hours seemed short. The incredible experiences would not have possible without all of you. I am ultimately grateful to my wife, Seok Han, for being my greatest pillar of support and for taking care of Adora when I am so far away from home. Finally, I am thankful to my family and friends for their encouragement. Zhiyu Chen (Jude) [email protected] December 2019 5 [This page is intentionally left blank.] 6 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................................... 5 LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... 10 LIST OF ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................. 11 CHAPTER 1 | INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 13 1.1 | GENERAL INFORMATION ......................................................................................................... 13 1.2 | MOTIVATION AND THESIS QUESTION ........................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 2 | LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 17 2.1 | SINGAPORE’S GEOGRAPHICAL CIRCUMSTANCES ........................................................................... 17 2.2 | ECONOMIC REVIEW................................................................................................................ 17 2.3 | CURRENT PLAN FOR MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMANDS AND EMISSION TARGETS................................. 19 2.4 | ASEAN’S GROWING ENERGY NEEDS ......................................................................................... 20 2.5 | NUCLEAR POWER FOR SINGAPORE ............................................................................................ 22 2.6 | ENERGY TRANSITION REPRESENTATION...................................................................................... 24 2.7 | SYSTEM DYNAMICS ................................................................................................................ 25 CHAPTER 3 | SINGAPORE’S ELECTRICITY LANDSCAPE TRANSFORMATION MODEL .............................. 27 3.1 | BASIC MODEL AND BROAD NARRATIVE ..................................................................................... 27 3.2 | DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF SUB-CATEGORIES IN THE STOCK-AND-FLOW MODEL ................................ 30 3.2.1: Electricity Demand and Supply ........................................................................................... 31 3.2.2: Pricing ................................................................................................................................ 35 3.2.3: Infrastructure Investment .................................................................................................. 40 3.2.4: Local and Overseas Capacity .............................................................................................. 44 3.2.5: Electricity Generation ......................................................................................................... 48 3.2.6: Emissions Level ................................................................................................................... 49 3.2.7: Energy Related Jobs ........................................................................................................... 51 3.2.8: Energy Security ................................................................................................................... 53 3.2.9: Social Needs ....................................................................................................................... 54 3.2.10: Policy ................................................................................................................................ 55 3.2.11: Model Dashboard ............................................................................................................. 58 CHAPTER 4 | SCENARIOS AND MODEL RESULTS ................................................................................... 60 4.1 | SCENARIO SETUP ................................................................................................................... 60 4.2 |RESULTS ............................................................................................................................... 61 4.2.1. Capacities ..........................................................................................................................