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Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Roadmap for Singapore (A Summary)

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Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Roadmap for Singapore (A Summary) Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Roadmap for Singapore (A Summary) Prepared for Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) and Energy Market Authority (EMA) by Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS) Authors: Prof. Joachim LUTHER, Lead Author Dr. Thomas REINDL Project Manager: Dr. Darryl Kee Soon WANG Research Team: Prof. Joachim LUTHER Dr. Thomas REINDL Prof. Armin ABERLE Dr. Darryl Kee Soon WANG Dr. Wilfred WALSH Mr. André NOBRE Ms. Grace Guoxiu YAO The information given in this roadmap are mainly based on data available in June 2013. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 4 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 8 2. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND OF TODAY’S AND FUTURE PV AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES ............................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 TECHNOLOGIES FOR PV ELECTRICITY GENERATION ...............................................................13 2.1.1 Basics of the PV energy conversion process ...........................................................................13 2.1.2 Technology, efficiencies and prices of market-leading PV technologies ...............................14 2.1.3 Efficiency and technology roadmaps of market-leading PV technologies .............................17 2.1.3.1 Short term goals (2015) ........................................................................................ 17 2.1.3.2 Efficiency goals for 2020, 2030 and 2050 ............................................................. 18 2.1.3.3 Cost goals for 2020, 2030 and 2050 ..................................................................... 21 2.1.3.4 Technical lifetime of PV modules ......................................................................... 21 2.1.3.5 Recycling of PV modules ....................................................................................... 22 2.2 PV SYSTEM TECHNOLOGIES AND PV GRID INTEGRATION ......................................................22 2.2.1 Technologies ...........................................................................................................................22 2.2.2 Present PV system cost ...........................................................................................................25 2.2.3 Development of total cost of PV systems ...............................................................................26 2.2.4 Energy payback of PV systems ................................................................................................27 3. PV ROADMAPS FROM OTHER REGIONS ........................................................................................... 28 4. A PV ROADMAP FOR SINGAPORE .................................................................................................... 29 4.1 OVERVIEW OF MAIN FOCUS AREAS FOR THE CASE OF SINGAPORE ......................................29 4.2 SPACE CHALLENGE ..................................................................................................................29 4.2.1 Space potential in Singapore ..................................................................................................29 4.2.1.1 Available roof-top area ......................................................................................... 29 4.2.1.2 Possible facade areas ............................................................................................ 30 4.2.1.3 Infrastructure areas .............................................................................................. 30 4.2.1.4 Singapore’s islets .................................................................................................. 31 4.2.1.5 Floating PV systems .............................................................................................. 31 4.2.1.6 Summary of potential space for PV installation in Singapore .............................. 31 2 4.2.2 Alternative deployment strategies .........................................................................................32 4.2.2.1 Off-shore floating PV systems .............................................................................. 32 4.2.2.2 PV system deployment in neighbouring countries ............................................... 32 4.2.2.3 Pan-Asian power grid interconnection ................................................................. 33 4.3 EFFECTIVE PV GRID INTEGRATION OF SOLAR PV IN SINGAPORE ...........................................33 4.3.1 PV contribution to Singapore's electricity supply ...................................................................33 4.3.1.1 Development of the installed capacity in Singapore ............................................33 4.3.1.2 Contribution of PV electricity to the Singapore energy mix ................................. 35 4.3.2 Technical grid integration of PV electricity in Singapore ........................................................37 4.3.2.1 The solar resource in Singapore and its variable nature ...................................... 37 4.3.2.2 Possible measures to facilitate PV grid integration .............................................. 40 4.4 ECONOMICS OF ROOF-TOP SOLAR PV IN SINGAPORE ...........................................................44 4.4.1 Current roof-top PV electricity cost (LCOE) ............................................................................44 4.4.2 PV electricity cost reduction over time (LCOE) .......................................................................46 4.4.3 Assessment of the full cost implications of PV electricity in Singapore .................................48 4.4.3.1 Examples of grid integration cost ......................................................................... 48 4.4.3.2 Positive cost factors .............................................................................................. 49 4.5 INDUSTRY, DEPLOYMENT AND RD&D STRATEGIES FOR SOLAR PV IN SINGAPORE ...............50 4.5.1 Increasing scientific excellence in PV materials, cells and modules research ........................50 4.5.2 Facilitating the deployment of PV in Singapore through RD&D .............................................52 4.5.3 Fostering industrial activities and development in PV ...........................................................54 4.5.4 General Recommendations ....................................................................................................56 5. APPENDICES .................................................................................................................................. 57 6. MAIN CONTRIBUTORS ..................................................................................................................... 74 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Roadmaps are designed to help to meet specific goals. The goals of the roadmap at hand are aligned with Singapore’s energy policy in terms of increasing the sustainability of Singapore’s energy supply system and meeting the following objectives: Cost effective electricity supply Increased security of energy supply Ecological sustainability Scenarios are helpful tools in formulating concrete goals that will lead to the realisation of such future-compliant energy systems. The advantage of the scenario approach is that a variety of approaches can be analysed. From these, policy-makers and government bodies may choose goals that are consistent with their overall political strategy. Based on two scenarios and assessments of the energy supply system in 2050, the PV roadmap for Singapore presents paths into the future of Singapore’s energy supply; it displays in particular different maps leading to different (increased) contributions of solar electricity to Singapore’s electricity supply. Solar power can contribute considerably to a sustainable electricity supply of Singapore and to a reduction of CO2 emissions in Singapore. The development of photovoltaic scenarios for Singapore is most importantly influenced by: • Availability of space for PV installations • Technological advancements leading to cost reduction of PV electricity • Reliable integration of the variable solar power generation into the electric grid Different assumptions on these parameters will result in different scenarios. Thus a plethora of scenarios and roadmaps are conceivable. The authors hope that the scenarios chosen will be suggestive of possible pathways towards a future-compliant electricity supply of Singapore1: Baseline scenario (BAS): • An effective area of 27 km2 is used for PV installation in Singapore (partial use of the available space in Singapore) 2 • An evolutionary growth in PV area efficiency and yield is assumed, in-line with global technological developments 1 On the basis of such scenarios, precise goal setting can be done in an iterative process between policy makers, government bodies and experts working on scenarios. 2 The relevant agencies have been part of the stakeholder involvement of the PV roadmap and participated in two workshops held. The detailed area data have not been endorsed by the various agencies. 4 • PV electricity costs are calculated according to a moderate reduction in cost. Accelerated scenario (ACC): • Full utilisation of the effective area that is available for PV installations in Singapore (45 km2) 2 • An accelerated growth in PV
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