CONFIDENTIAL FOR REFERENCE ONLY NOT TO 8E REPRODUCED MARKET SURVEY FOR NUCLEAR POWER IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SINGAPORE RESTRICTED PRINTED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY IN VIENNA SEPTEMBER 1973 FOREWORD It is generally recognized that within the coming decades nuclear power is likely to play an important role in many developing countries because many such countries have limited indigenous energy resources and in recent years have been adversely affected by increases in world oil prices. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been fully aware of this potential need for nuclear power and has actively pursued a program of assisting such countries with the development of their nuclear power programs. So far, inter alia, the Agency has: (a) Sponsored power reactor survey and siting missions; (b) Conducted feasibility studies; (c) Organized technical meetings; (d) Published reports on small and medium power reactors; and (e) Awarded fellowships for training in nuclear power and technology. At present only eight developing countries have nuclear power plants in operation or under construction - Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, India, the Republic of Korea, Mexico and Pakistan. The total of their nuclear power commitments to date amounts to about 5200 MW as compared to an estimated installed electric generation capacity of about 56 000 MW. It is estimated that by 1980 only 8% of the installed electrical capacity of all developing countries of the world will be nuclear. In contrast, in the in- dustrialized countries more than 16% of total electrical capacity will be nuclear by 1980. In view of the possible greater need for nuclear power in developing countries it was recommended at the Fourth International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, held in Geneva in 1971, and at the fifteenth regular session of the General Conference2, that efforts should be intensified to assist these countries in planning their nuclear power program. In response to these recommendations the Agency convened a Working Group on Nuclear Power Plants of Interest to Developing Countries on 11 - 15 October 1971 to review the then current status of the potential for nuclear power plants in these countries and advise on the desirability of carrying out a detailed market survey for such plants. As a result of its deliberations, the Working Group recommended that a Market Survey be carried out to determine in a more definitive way the size and timing of demand for nuclear power plants in selected developing countries where they might play an economic role in complementing conventional energy sources. The Working Group also pointed out that, although the Survey would be performed in the interests of the countries concerned, the results should be directed toward the nuclear industry, including manufacturing, engineering, construction and financial institutions, who would be looked to ultimately for meeting the requirements for equipment, facilities and financing as identified in the Survey. In response to these recommendations, the Director General decided.that the Survey should be undertaken and steps were initiated in November 1971. The objectives of the Survey as finally undertaken were as follows: (a) Examine the potential role of nuclear power in interested developing countries over the next five to fifteen years as a means of defining the size and timing of the installation of nuclear plants in this period. (b) Identify the specific market for small and medium power reactors in the countries participating in the Survey. (c) Estimate the financial requirements for the selected power system expansion programs in each of the participating countries. Thus, this Survey will define the size and timing of the likely market for nuclear plants to be commissioned in the participating developing countries and the domestic and foreign financial requirements for that market in the 1980-1989 period3. It should be emphasized that this report provides only an indication of the need for nuclear power and associated financial considerations for the countries involved. The 1 As classified under the United Nations Development Program. 2 See General Conference Resolution GC(XV)/RES/285. 3 For convenience this will be called "study period" throughout the report. — iii- scope of the data and information surveyed are not in such great detail as to allow the findings to be considered the equivalent of a rigorously determined feasibility study of any specific installation. The results, however, are as accurate as they could be made within the limits of data, time and manpower available. The methodology and analytical procedures used are believed to be accurate. In case the countries may need more detailed plans, an in-depth analysis will be required. It is suggested that the matter of defining the steps which would be needed to implement the suggested nuclear power programs, by all parties concerned, be the subject of further study after the participating countries have had an opportunity to thoroughly analyse the results of the Survey. In order to avoid biasing the results in favour of nuclear power, the approach and bases for analysis, including the technical and economic parameters, were subject to careful review by independent observers at the start of the study and prior to its completion. Comments by these observers were taken into consideration wherever possible. It is hoped that as a result of these reviews any bias however unintentional has been removed from the study. SCOPE AND IMPLEMENTATION In November 1971 letters were sent to 23 developing countries considered to be the most promising candidates for introduction of nuclear power in the time period of interest. Fourteen of these countries expressed an interest in participating and agreed to provide relevant basic data and counterpart staff to work with the visiting teams of experts. Seven Survey missions were undertaken as follows: Turkey-Greece 3-21 July 1972 Argentina-Mexico 7 August - 1 September 1972 Jamaica-Chile 4-15 September 1972 Republic of Korea-Singapore-Philippines 23 October - 17 November 1972 Pakistan-Arab Republic of Egypt 13 November - 1 December 1972 Thailand-Bangladesh 20 November - 8 December 1972 Yugoslavia 4-5 and 15-17 January 1973 The team selected for each mission was assigned the responsibility of collecting the necessary information on the characteristics of the power supply system(s) concerned, the projected power demand, current plans for expansion of the system(s), the availability of indigenous energy resources, and related economic and technical factors. This information was subsequently analysed by each mission team, reviewed by the country involved and used as a basis for the final report. Data gathered by the missions were also evaluated by the engineering staff of the Agency and by the experts assigned to the Survey. This evaluation included consideration of power flows in the basic interconnected system under normal operating conditions, the possible differences in transmission system requirements under varying generating capa- city plans, an analysis of the transient stability and frequency stability of each system following an unplanned outage of one or more generating units, an analysis of alternative power system expansion plans involving nuclear and conventional plants and an estimation of the present worth of all costs for each plan. The results served as a basis for the selection of near-optimum power system expansion programs for each of the fourteen countries involved. FINANCIAL AND MANPOWER SUPPORT OF SURVEY ACTIVITIES Since the Market Survey was not foreseen at the time the Agency's 1972 budget was prepared, financial support was obtained from various countries and financial institutions. Furthermore, the work of the Market Survey could not have been completed within the time and manpower constraints but for the great efforts of the personnel in each country who participated in the preparation and review of data, the Agency professional and supporting staff, and the contributions of many other experts and organizations. — iv— Support in cash funds was made available from: Federal Republic of Germany US $ 25 000 Inter-American Development Bank 25 000 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 50 000 United States - Export-Import Bank 75 000 Agency for International Development 25 000 Atomic Energy Commission 9 950 Total US $ 209 950 In addition, several countries provided experts on either a cost-free or partially cost- free basis: Approximate man-weeks Canada 22 Federal Republic of Germany 48 France 4 India 3 Japan 17 Sweden 9 United Kingdom 14 United States of America 19 Total 136 The fourteen participating countries contributed counterpart personnel and bore part or all of the expenses of each Survey mission during the time spent in the country in addition to the cost of preparing the responses and data required for the analyses. The Agency's contribution to the Survey included US $20 000 in cash plus approximately 260 man-weeks of professional staff, secretarial and administrative support, equivalent to about US $176 000. In addition, special consultants to the Agency provided about 170 man- weeks of support equivalent to about US $112 000. Based on the above, the total cost of the Survey is estimated to amount to US $555 000, including more than US $100 000 for cost-free services provided by its sponsors. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Mr. O. B. Falls, Jr. , USA, consultant to the Agency, was Project Manager for the Market Survey. To list all of those who contributed in one way or another, even for one country, would be lengthy. Hence, specific recognition is limited to: Associated Nuclear Services Ltd (ANS), London, England — who furnished, under a special contract, an electric utility system planning expert for each mission and co- ordinated the technical systems analysis work for the participating countries. Bechtel Corporation, San Francisco, California, USA — who furnished complete heat rate data for the many sizes and types of fossil and nuclear power plants used in the Survey analyses.