Issue 54: September 2020

Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

www.natowatch.org

NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 54 (June-August 2020) NATO Watch Essay: Is it inevitable that NATO must support Washington in the US-China Cold War? 3 Published by NATO Watch News, Commentary & Reports: Gairloch, Scotland - Arctic Security 7 IV212DS - Arms Control and Disarmament: Open Skies Treaty and New START 7 - Belarus Crisis 8 - Book Reviews 9 Editor: Dr. Ian Davis - China-NATO relations 9 - Climate Change 10 Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly - Collective Defence 10 Observatory: the only online publication - Counterterrorism 11 dedicated entirely to news and independent - COVID-19: NATO’s response 11 commentary on NATO policy-making and - Cyber Security, Information Warfare operational activities. The clips are drawn & Hybrid Threats 13 from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds - Defence Budgets, Procurement & and alerts covering a substantial part of the Burden Sharing 14 major English language newspapers and - Energy Security 15 other periodicals worldwide. - Enlargement & Partnerships 15 - Bosnia Herzegovina; Georgia; Japan; NATO Watch Mauritania; Policy; Serbia; UN-NATO conducts independent monitoring and relations, Ukraine analysis of NATO and aims to increase - History 17 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - Libya and intra-NATO conflict in the engagement and broaden public awareness Eastern Mediterranean 17 and participation in a progressive reform - Maritime Security 19 agenda within NATO. - Military Exercises 20 - NATO 2030 Reflection Group 20 - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting 21 - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 22 - NATO Secretary General on Desert Island Discs 23 - Nuclear Weapons 24 - Operations and Missions 26 - Afghanistan; Iraq; Kosovo - Russia-NATO Relations 30 - Special Forces 32 - Space Policy 32

Security News from NATO Member States 33 - Albania; Belgium; Canada; Czech Copyright © NATO Watch, 2020. Some rights reserved. Republic; Denmark; Estonia; France; This publication is made available under a Creative Germany and the US troop withdrawal; Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Italy; Latvia; and distribution for non-profit use, provided the Lithuania; Montenegro; Netherlands; authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be Norway; Poland; Romania; Turkey; UK; credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources. USA

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NATO Watch Essay: maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea, recent border skirmishes Is it inevitable that NATO with India and at least two cases of ‘hostage diplomacy’ involving Swedish must support Washington in and Canadian citizens. China’s refusal the US-China Cold War? to release the two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, held for The United States and China are now more than 18 months on dubious involved in a complex and multifaceted spying charges, is particularly Cold War (Cold War II), albeit one that unfathomable. differs significantly from the Soviet-US Cold War (Cold War I). Is it inevitable Of course, all these developments are then that NATO will fall into line behind unwelcome, especially for the Chinese Washington as it did during Cold War I? people and East Asian security, but are And what are the options for European they grounds for regarding China as governments and their citizens caught the enemy of the world order? This in the middle and perhaps looking to a appears to the view of the US military. navigate a middle path between the two The 2018 US National Defense Strategy protagonists? warned that China is “pursuing a military modernization program that Justified concerns about China seeks IndoPacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the From the outset it should be United States to achieve global acknowledged that there are aspects of preeminence in the future”, while in a Chinese policy, especially since Xi more recent news release a senior US Jinping took power, which justify commander described China as concern. There is real political “actively working to subvert the repression of dissenting voices and the international rules-based infrastructure consequences are there to be seen in that has maintained peace since the China’s handling of the coronavirus end of World War II”. And it is a view outbreak and the stifling even today of that seems to have found an echo anyone asking questions about it. The chamber within NATO. new National Security Law in Hong Kong, a move the Economist described NATO’s emerging policy toward as “one of the biggest assaults on a China liberal society since the second world war”, is leading to further instability At the June meeting of NATO defence and arrests of pro-democracy ministers the NATO Secretary General protesters. On the mainland violations Jens Stoltenberg noted that allies of human rights and especially “expressed concern about the repression of the Uighurs in Xinjiang consequences of the rise of China” then and Tibetan communities, as well as went on to emphasise the threat posed curbs on independent journalism and by Beijing: “China has the second rigorous policing of social media, are largest defence budget in the world and also major concerns. is investing heavily in new long-range weapons systems and missile systems Beyond these largely ‘domestic’ that can reach all NATO countries. They political issues, there is also an are modernising their maritime increasingly chauvinistic tone in capabilities with a more global reach of China’s foreign policy, which concerns their naval forces… this is about China some of its neighbours and the wider coming closer to us. We see them in the international community. So far, this Arctic. We see them in Africa. We see has largely resulted in relatively limited them investing heavily in infrastructure uses of coercive statecraft – such as

3 in our own countries. And, of course, nuclear weapons as a means of warfare we see them also in cyberspace”. unless first attacked by an adversary using nuclear weapons—since 1964, This ‘talking up’ of the alleged Chinese while NATO has repeatedly rejected threat builds on a rich tradition of calls to adopt such a policy (as have all Soviet and Russian threat inflation other nuclear-armed states except within NATO, from the ‘missile gap’ India). China is also a party to the major during the late 1950s and early 1960s, international agreements regulating to the ‘hypersonic missile gap’ today. biological and chemical weapons, and China’s growth in its military spending has also joined or enacted control lists has closely matched the country’s consistent with export control regimes economic growth. It is estimated to concerning proliferation-sensitive have allocated $261 billion to the goods and technology. In addition, military in 2019, as compared with China recently joined the UN-sponsored $732 billion by the United States. While Arms Trade Treaty, which seeks to China’s military expenditure has regulate international trade in increased continuously since 1994 (for conventional military equipment. 25 consecutive years) and is 85 per cent higher than a decade ago, its Of course, China should be encouraged military burden in 2019 remained at to take part in broader discussions on 1.9 per cent of GDP (i.e. below the conventional and nuclear arms control, NATO guideline that member states but this is only likely to happen when spend at least 2 per cent of their GDP the United States is itself more on defence). committed to such a process. President Trump has pulled the United States out Arms control is not just a Chinese of the INF Treaty and the Iran nuclear problem deal, unsigned the Arms Trade Treaty, abandoned the landmine ban, So far there are two main areas where threatened to undertake the first NATO is seeking to apply pressure on nuclear weapon tests in America since China: in arms control and investment 1992 and set in motion withdrawal in critical infrastructure, and both from the Open Skies Treaty. represent predominantly US agendas.

President Trump has been demanding Huawei is not the only surveillance that China join what has for decades concern been a bilateral US-Russian nuclear arms control dialogue, but the Chinese In the area of critical infrastructure, the government has refused. In part this is US concerns are centred on the because its nuclear stockpile, currently activities of Huawei. While these estimated at 320 warheads (roughly the concerns form part of a wider US-China same number as France), is less than a trade war, the central security concern twentieth the size of the US or Russian (and the one most often voiced by nuclear arsenals. Hence, it was no NATO officials) is that the Chinese surprise that China refused to join the Government could use this company’s recent US-Russian strategic stability devices as a back door into strategically talks in Vienna. vital networks or for spying. The United States has been pressing European The NATO Secretary General is now allies to keep Huawei out of regularly calling on China to “engage communication networks, and to this constructively” in arms control. end the UK recently announced a major However, it is highly misleading to policy reversal. Having initially said that suggest that China does not already do Huawei equipment could be used on a so. For example, China has had a no limited basis in its 5G network, it will first use policy—a pledge not to use

4 now be banned from the UK’s high- than all the other permanent members speed wireless infrastructure. of the Security Council combined. The People’s Liberation Army has not However, the revelations of Edward fought a war since 1979, not used Snowden, and more recently the lethal military force abroad since 1988, Cambridge Analytica case, have nor has China funded or supported demonstrated that worries about the proxies or armed insurgents anywhere negative consequences of information in the world since the early 1980s. technology are not just limited to China. There are serious privacy Learning the right lessons from Cold concerns with US social media and tech War I companies, including so-called ‘surveillance capitalism’, and the Analysts are now looking for lessons widespread eavesdropping activities of from Cold War I to apply to Cold War II, the UK’s secret communication especially for Europe once again caught headquarters, GCHQ, the ‘Five Eyes’ in the middle. However, if the prevailing network and the numerous US orthodoxies of Cold War I are intelligence agencies reveal that followed—especially the narrative of US Western state agencies and triumphalism: that military-build-up, corporations are at the heart of many of the dynamism of Western ideas and its the secret and unaccountable systems economic system led to the ‘defeat’ of of modern global surveillance. the Soviet system—not only will the wrong lessons be drawn, but real The US and China in the international chances for peace will be missed, as system they were in the early years of Cold War I. As regards upholding good standards in international affairs more generally, Alternative explanations for the ending even a cursory comparison between of Cold War I include the central role of recent US and Chinese behaviour shows Gorbachev , the wave of popular, grass that an equally damning case can be roots movements in both East and West made against Washington. President that discredited the principal ideas of Trump has pulled the United States out the Cold War, and the ‘Helsinki of the Paris climate agreement, process’, which broadened and contemplated cutting funding to the redefined the meaning of security by World Health Organization and then giving added weight to its political, announced withdrawal from it, and economic, ethical and other imposed sanctions against dimensions. The role of the Conference International Criminal Court (ICC) on Security and Cooperation in Europe officials in response to ongoing ICC (CSCE, as it was then, now the OSCE) in investigations into alleged US war developing the Helsinki process and crimes in Afghanistan. Moreover, in the reducing tension between the Soviet post-Cold War period, the United States and Western blocs is particularly has led or supported wars to determine underrecognized in contemporary the governance of at least a dozen debates. Rather than using military countries. power to resolve seemingly intractable international disputes, the OSCE While the United States remains the emphasised, and continues to largest contributor to the United emphasise, the importance of ideas, Nations and its peacekeeping work norms, institutions and procedures. (despite requested funding cuts by President Trump), Beijing is now the An East Asian Helsinki Process has been second-largest funder and has proposed in the past, mainly as a tool deployed 2,500 peacekeepers, more to decrease tensions on the Korean

5 peninsula, but it might also offer a way difficult to envisage at present the of addressing the underlying creation of a Sino-European alliance of challenges associated with the US- peace and human rights movements of China Cold War. Starting a Helsinki-like the kind that developed across both process or creating an OSCE-like blocs in Cold War I. While that past does organization in East Asia would not be not chart tidily on to the present (not easy. But compared to East Asia today, least because Western peace Europe in the first half of the twentieth movements are a shadow of their century had as deep, if not deeper, former selves), there may be scope for ideological divisions, national tensions enhanced Sino-European cooperation and territorial disputes. Creating a among security and peace-related security organization that included thinks tanks and university former World War II adversaries, as well departments. as the Soviet Union and the United States, was as difficult as the set of Conclusions security and ideological issues that now Rather than going global and setting its divide the United States and China, as sights on a confrontation with China, well other countries in East Asia. NATO should seek to work with China Another option is to develop stronger to create a more stable and secure soft security and grassroots links world. China must be engaged, not between China and Europe. This might contained. Despite the reality of a be possible, for example, at the city hardening of Chinese policy level where a plethora of networks domestically and externally, especially linking European cities already have in an East Asian context, this does not some tentative associations with amount to a challenge to the global Chinese cities, including the Trans- order. By exaggerating the Chinese Urban-EU-China project and city-to-city ‘threat’ and casting the country as an pairings under the EU’s International ‘enemy’, the United States and NATO Urban Cooperation programme. Other are likely to encourage an even harder European city networks covering line from Beijing. Given the undoubted energy, health, culture and transport mutual antagonism between issue could develop similar outreach Washington and Beijing, Europe’s role programmes with Chinese cities. should be to act as a diplomatic bridge China’s own Silk Road Cities Alliance, between the two sides, as happened to which aims at promoting cooperation limited extent during the first Cold War. in various fields among cities lying This does not preclude European along the ‘One Belt One Road’ route, politicians speaking out and taking already has four Italian cities and one action over Chinese human rights German city as partners. Further abuses. And they should also continue cooperation with other European cities to promote liberal democracy, could be envisaged under this humanism and internationalism in programme. engaging with China. As the British journalist Jonathan Freedland notes, At the grassroots level, however, a perhaps the answer begins in finding series of laws introduced by Xi Jinping allies and taking on the undramatic, have granted the country’s security often unglamorous work of diplomacy, apparatus sweeping legal powers over and then “advancing bit by bit towards civil society and put foreign NGOs, something better”. especially human rights groups, under tighter control. The Chinese leadership is clearly mindful of the role NGOs have played in recent ‘colour revolutions’ against authoritarian regimes, and it is

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News, Commentary and Arms Control and Disarmament: Open Skies Treaty and New Reports: START

Arctic Security President Donald Trump has announced that the USA will formally The Arctic region, or High North, withdraw from the Treaty on Open strategically important during the Cold Skies, citing Russia’s inability to adhere War became less significant after the to the agreement. The nearly 30-year- end of the confrontation between old treaty reduces the risk of war by NATO and the Warsaw Pact. However, allowing the 34 member countries to due to both the warming climate in the conduct reconnaissance flights and Arctic and the re-emergence of collect data on their military forces and geopolitical competition in the region, activities. the Arctic is once again of growing strategic importance. Climate change is Washington informed the other 33 reportedly occurring at a faster rate parties to the treaty of its intention to than previously thought, which will deliver a formal six-month notice of have a significant impact on the Arctic withdrawal on 22 May 2020. Moscow and on the security of Arctic littoral denies being in violation of the states. agreement. Russia is concerned that NATO members will share intelligence Tone Skoge, Bring allied attention to air about their flights over Russia with the power in the Arctic, Defense News, 6 United States after Washington’s August 2020 withdrawal.

Joshua Tallis, NATO is the right forum for This will be the third arms control security dialogue in the High North, agreement that Trump has withdrawn Defense News, 28 July 2020 from. He took the United States out of Russian and NATO militaries are getting the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and the more active in the Arctic, but neither is sure Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces about what the other is doing, Business treaty in 2019. There are also concerns Insider, 22 July 2020 for the future of the last treaty limiting NATO maritime exercise Dynamic US and Russian strategic nuclear Mongoose ends in the High North, NATO weapons, the New Strategic Arms News Release, 13 July 2020 Reduction Treaty (New START), which is

Panel: NATO Needs to Take Russian due to expire in February next year.

Offensive, Defensive Advances in Arctic Russia has offered to extend New Seriously, USNI News, 1 July 2020 START, but the Trump administration Sherri Goodman and Katarina Kertysova, hopes to negotiate a new arms treaty The nuclearisation of the Russian Arctic: that would also include China. Beijing, new reactors, new risks, European however, has expressed little interest in Leadership Network and The Polar Institute, such talks. Hence, despite strong June 2020 pressure exerted by the United States, Nordic militaries rekindle old alliances, as China did not attend a three-day arms Russia warms to the region, Defense News, control discussion in Vienna at the end 22 June 2020 of June. Instead, bilateral discussions Russia plans new exercises in Arctic, News took place between the United States in English.no, 2 June 2020 and Russia.

Zdzislaw Sliwa and Nurlan Aliyev, Strategic The bilateral US-Russian arms control Competition or Possibilities for discussions were welcomed by NATO Cooperation Between the United States and Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg who Russia in the Arctic, The Journal of Slavic said that arms control agreements are Military Studies, vol. 33 no.2, pp.214-236 important for the security of all NATO

7 allies. The New START agreement was Alexander Graef, The End of the Open Skies one of the main talking points during Treaty and the Politics of Compliance, Lawfare, 6 July 2020 the negotiations in Vienna. In an online press briefing that took place directly For a Russian perspective see: Andrei Kelin, after the Vienna talks, the US chief arms Open Skies Clouded by Sham and control negotiator Ambassador Ambiguity, RUSI Commentary, 2 July 2020

Billingslea said that the USA is willing to Tanya Ogilvie-White, Post-INF Arms Control contemplate extending New START but in the Asia-Pacific: Political Viability and only on the condition that a future Implementation Challenges, IISS Discussion agreement is multilateral. In principle, Paper, June 2020 the USA and Russia agree that a future US-Russia nuclear disarmament talks to New START deal should take the begin, but no sign of China joining in, The changed security environment, Guardian, 21 June 2020 including China’s growing power, into account, according to Ambassador Tomáš Petříček, Strengthening Arms Billingslea. Despite “tough discussions” Control Through Multilateralism, and Multilateralism Through Arms Control, Ambassador Billingslea stated that RUSI Commentary, 19 June 2020 progress was made, including launching a US-Russian technical Trump aims to sidestep another arms pact working group (although there seemed to sell more U.S. drones, Reuters, 12 June 2020 to be some confusion as to what it will discuss: nuclear warheads and Matt Field, Why is tear gas banned in war doctrine, according to the US side, or but not from peaceful protests? Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 4 June 2020 just doctrine, according to Russia).

According to the NATO Secretary Moscow certain NATO will share General, “in the absence of any information about flights over Russia with US – ambassador, TASS, 6 June 2020 agreement which includes China, I think the right thing will be to extend Justin Key Canfil, The U.S. Will Exit the Open the existing New START agreement to Skies Treaty and it’s Unclear Why, Lawfare, provide the necessary time to find 3 June 2020 agreement – US, Russia – but hopefully also with China”. He stressed that failed Belarus Crisis New START negotiations would not be good for NATO allies, nor the world, After the longtime president of Belarus, stating that” the way to a world without Aleksandr Lukashenko, claimed 80% of nuclear weapons is balanced, verifiable the vote in what many Western arms control, disarmament”. In the governments said was a sham election absence of a New START agreement, on 9 August, protesters across the Stoltenberg fears a new arms race and country have continued to turn out in a riskier world for NATO allies. large numbers, only to be met with a fierce police crackdown. On 16 August Finally, it was reported by Reuters in NATO dismissed allegations by June that the Trump administration President Lukashenko that it was plans to reinterpret the Missile conducting a military buildup near the Technology Control Regime—a Cold country’s western border but said it War-era multilateral export control was closely monitoring the situation. regime. with 35 member states that Russia has reportedly offered seek to limit the proliferation of unspecified security assistance to missiles and missile technology—with Lukashenko. the goal of allowing US defence contractors to sell more armed drones NATO Secretary General discusses Belarus, to a more expansive group of Eastern Mediterranean with EU defence countries. ministers, NATO News Release, 26 August 2020

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Belarus: Nato denies foreign troops are on China-NATO relations border, BBC News, 22 August 2020 NATO has maintained a dialogue with U.S. Allies Watch Borders Closely as Belarus countries that are not part of its Sends Military, Russia Presses West, partnership frameworks, on an ad-hoc Newsweek, 22 August 2020 basis, since the 1990s. One such A neutral Belarus? Country’s opposition country is China. At the NATO Leaders’ insists it doesn’t want either NATO or Meeting in December 2019, the London Russian troops inside its borders, RT, 21 Declaration recognised China’s August 2020 growing influence and international Carl Bildt, The Armenian model for Belarus, policies and suggests that these ECFR Commentary, 19 August, 2020 “present both opportunities and

Ian Anthony, The Belarus election: A challenges that we need to address challenge to stability and security in together as an alliance”. The NATO Northern Europe, SIPRI Commentary, 19 Secretary General said that it was the August 2020 first time that NATO had addressed the

Gustav Gressel, Russia’s military rise of China. At the NATO Defence manoeuvres at the Belarus border – a Ministers meeting in June (see below message to the West, ECFR Commentary, and the essay above) and during the 18 August 2020 meeting of the Political Committee (PC)

NATO Secretary General discusses Belarus of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly with President of Poland, NATO News on 15 July, further concerns were Release, 18 August 2020 expressed about this issue.

How to Help Belarus, Statement by the During the pandemic, Beijing continued International Crisis Group, 18 August 2020 to expand its global clout, including

Belarus is flexing its military ‘muscles’ continued regional brinkmanship, close to NATO’s borders, Defence Blog, 18 intensification of its ‘wolf-warrior’ August 2020 diplomacy, and waging cyber hacking and propaganda campaigns in allied NATO rejects Lukashenko claim it's and partner countries, said positioning forces near Belarus borders, Stars and Stripes, 17 August 2020 Congressman Gerald Connolly (US), introducing the draft PC General Report Vigilant on Belarus, ready to deter The Rise of China: Implications for aggression on allies, NATO's Stoltenberg Global and Euro-Atlantic Security. says, Reuters, 17 August 2020 “NATO must do more than just take NATO denies Belarus claim of military note”, Congressman Connolly’s report buildup, but watching situation, Reuters, said. “NATO must develop the 16 August 2020 capabilities to monitor, engage, and Frederick W. Kagan, A knife at NATO's when necessary counter the threats throat: Why Belarus matters to the US, The posed by China”. Hill, 16 August 2020 Emil Avdaliani, China’s Effect: A Global Belarus: Rival rallies as Lukashenko claims NATO, BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. NATO deployed to border, Deutsche Welle, 1,684, 10 August 2020 16 August 2020 Peter Martin, Gordana Filipovic and Alan Crawford, China Muscles Onto NATO’s Book Reviews Turf, Roiling Alliance Frayed by Trump, Bloomberg, 4 August 2020 Michael Rühle, Book review – “Future NATO: Adapting to New Realities”, NATO Anthony Vinci, How to Stop China From Review, 30 June 2020 Imposing Its Values, The Atlantic, 2 August 2020 Alexander Graef, The Rise and Fall of Cooperative Arms Control in Europe, In the post-COVID world, there can be no Journal for Peace and Nuclear return to “business as usual” with China, Disarmament, 2020 NATO PA News Release, 15 July 2020

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Lauren Speranza, China Is NATO’s New and operations. Similarly, the Wales Problem, Foreign Policy, 8 July 2020 Summit Declaration in 2014 identified

Yang Zhongjie, Internal strife dims NATO's climate change, water scarcity and prospects, China Military, 8 July 2020 increasing energy needs as future disruptors of security. While there is a US-led NATO says clear pattern of China's authoritarian behaviour at home and growing willingness in NATO to discuss bullying abroad, Zee News, 1 July 2020 and explore responses to climate- related dangers, the policy road ahead China Becoming Concern for U.S. on this issue within the alliance remains Commanders in Europe, US Department of uncertain. Defense News Release, 26 June 2020

Timothy Garton Ash, China: Lessons for The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) Europe from the Cold War, ECFR recently commissioned RAND Europe to Commentary, 22 June 2020 examine climate change’s effects on

NATO Targets China; Says ‘China Is On Our the UK MOD’s activities, and its Radar More Than Ever Before’, Eurasia attendant security implications, to Times, 18 June 2020 assist the UK MOD in creating an updated climate change strategy. This NATO's Jens Stoltenberg sounds warning on China's rise, Deutsche Welle, 13 June examination produced a proposed 2020 framework for UK MOD’s leaders to use for assessing climate change risks to its NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Political mission, as well as multiple policy Committee (PC), The Rise of China: recommendations for addressing the Implications for Global and Euro-Atlantic Security, Draft General Report, Gerald E. challenges and seizing the Connolly (United States) General opportunities climate change presents Rapporteur, 036 PC 20 E,12 June 2020 to the UK MOD. As the UK MOD writes its climate change strategy using the Michael T. Klare, The New Cold War with results of the RAND Europe study, it can China: How Will It Affect You? Tom Dispatch, 11 June 2020 also offer other NATO defence ministries advice on this issue. Ian Brzezinski, NATO’s role in a transatlantic strategy on China, Atlantic Marc Kodack, A Climate Change Framework Council, 1 June 2020 for the UK’s Ministry of Defence – Lessons for NATO? The Centre for Climate and Naďa Kovalčíková and Gabrielle Tarini, Security, 29 July 2020 Stronger Together: NATO’s Evolving Approach toward China, Women in International Security, Policy Brief, May Collective Defence 2020 At successive summits since 2014, Luis Simón, Between punishment and NATO leaders have agreed a range of denial: Uncertainty, flexibility, and U.S. measures to enhance their deterrence military strategy toward China, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 41 no3, and defence posture, including the 2020, pp.361-384 establishment of an enhanced Forward Presence in Poland and the three Baltic states. They have further recognised Climate Change that credible deterrence requires these

NATO has recognized the adverse small multinational forces to be effects of climate change on underpinned by a robust reinforcement international security. NATO’s 2010 strategy. Strategic Concept, for example, said Valerie Insinna and Aaron Mehta, Moving that environmental and climate change US F-16s from Germany will ripple far will shape the future security outside the Black Sea region, Defense environment and have significant News, 13 August 2020 implications for the alliance's planning

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The US and NATO are boosting their and NATO`s Counter-Terrorism presence in a hotspot for military activity Section, as well as the Partnership for near Russia, Business Insider, 11 August Peace Consortium. Over 100 experts 2020 from nations across five continents, Glen E. Howard, Stryker deployment to including from Tunisia, Jordan and Black Sea will bolster NATO’s eastern flank, Mauritania, as well as multiple Military Times, 10 August 2020 international organizations contributed

Christelle Calmels, NATO’s 360-degree to the writing, drafting, and editing of approach to security: alliance cohesion and the final product. adaptation after the Crimean crisis, European Security, 22 July 2020 NATO Launches Counter-Terrorism Reference Curriculum, Homeland Security Sven Biscop, In the desert or at sea? Today, 21 June 2020 Securing Europe’s southern flank, Real Instituto Elcano, ARI 96/2020, 16 July 2020 NATO launches Counter-Terrorism Reference Curriculum, NATO News Release, NATO Crafting All-Domain, Euro-Atlantic 12 June 2020 Strategy as Threats to Alliance Shift, USNI News, 16 July 2020 NATO Secretary General addresses Foreign Ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat Josh Campbell, Why NATO should adopt a ISIS, NATO News Release, 4 June 2020 tactical readiness initiative, War on the Rocks 13 July 2020 COVID-19: NATO’s response NATO Puts Defence Plan for Poland, Baltics Into Action, Officials Say, New York Times, The COVID-19 pandemic is an 2 July 2020 unprecedented challenge. “NATO and

NATO endorses new Baltic defense plans allied military personnel have been key after Turkey withdraws veto, The Baltic in supporting civilian efforts – setting Times, 30 June 2020 up field hospitals, providing military

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ben Hodges, Janusz Bugajski, airlift, sharing medical expertise, and Ray Wojcik and Carsten Schmiedl, NATO helping to develop innovative needs a Coherent Approach to Defending responses”, NATO Secretary General its Eastern Flank, War on the Rocks, 12 June Jens Stoltenberg said about the 2020 alliance’s role in the relief effort. This has included facilitating the delivery of Neringa Bladaitė & Margarita Šešelgytė, Building a Multiple ‘Security Shelter’ in the medical supplies and mobilising Baltic States after EU and NATO Accession, NATO’s scientific network. This effort Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 72 No.6, 2020, has included some 350 flights airlifting pp. 1010-1032 hundreds of tons of critical supplies around the world; setting up almost 100 field hospitals; and the Counterterrorism deployment of more than half a million In June NATO launched its first ever troops to support the civilian response. Counter-Terrorism Reference These military personnel have been Curriculum (CTRC) to enhance involved in logistics, controlling “capacities to develop national skills borders, disinfecting public spaces and and improve counter-terrorism providing medical capabilities. strategies”. Drawing on historical When did NATO first learn about the examples, the CTRC provides an outbreak? overview of terrorist ideologies, An emerging issue concerns the timing motivations and methods, as well as of when NATO first became aware of contemporary counter-terrorism coronavirus. According to reports, the practices and potential future US intelligence community became projections. It is the result of close aware of the emerging disease in cooperation between the Defence Wuhan in the second week of Education Enhancement Programme

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November 2019 and drew up a The COVID-19 crisis clearly requires a classified document. US intelligence health care driven response and thus informed the Trump administration, falls largely in the province of the which ignored it, but also apparently individual NATO member states, and updated NATO allies and Israel with the (for some European states) within the classified document. As Professor Paul shared sovereignty which is delegated Rogers asks, “If NATO was informed of to the European Union. the outbreak in November, as US and The NATO Military Police Centre of Israeli sources have indicated, did NATO act on it and, if so, how?”. For Excellence in Bydgoszcz, Poland, appropriate lessons to be learned it is has started an initiative to collect crucial that NATO answers these lessons learned regarding the questions. pandemic. “This initiative will help

Preparing for the future us to review and enhance the NATO NATO is now preparing for any future Military Police capabilities in order health crisis, and to this end, the NATO to provide a safe and secure Defence Ministers in June (see below) environment for NATO Command agreed (a) a new operational plan, to be Structures and NATO Force ready for any second wave of COVID- Structures (global and individual 19; (b) to create a stockpile of medical protection)”, said Colonel Miroslaw equipment to provide immediate Labecki, Director of NATO Military assistance to allies and partner Police Centre of Excellence. countries; and (c) to set up a fund to acquire critical medical supplies. During the meeting of the Political However, details remain sketchy and Committee of the NATO Parliamentary there was no indication as to whether Assembly on 15 July allied the operational plan will be made parliamentarians also discussed public. NATO’s response to the pandemic. PC Chair Lord Campbell introduced a The NATO Secretary General stated that special draft report COVID-19 and “many allies have offered to donate Transatlantic Security where he argued medical equipment to the stockpile and that the alliance acted in the spirit of to contribute to the financing”, but solidarity and mobilised its assets to provided no concrete examples of this help hardest-hit members and “sign of allied unity and solidarity”. partners, while maintaining adequate Asked by a journalist to clarify when the levels of military preparedness. stockpile would be ready, what would be included in it, and to give an Patrick Cockburn, War and Pandemic indication of how much money is Journalism: The Truth Can Disappear Fast, TomDispatch, 6 August 2020 planned for the fund he said: “This is a flexible fund and a flexible stockpile, Allied Armed Forces’ Response to COVID- meaning that we have now agreed to 19, NATO Security Partnerships in Focus at establish the framework, the Defence and Security Committee’s Online mechanisms, both for the fund and for Meeting, NATO PA News Release, 16 July the stockpile and allies already at this 2020 meeting today made specific Karen Donfried, The Importance of announcements about funding and Transatlantic Cooperation During the about inkind contributions. But the COVID-19 Pandemic, GMF Blog, 14 July size, it’s too early to say, because that 2020 depends fully on the total amount of COVID-19 Sharpened Focus on Trans- commitments from different NATO Atlantic Security Gaps, Defense Official allies” Says, US Department of Defense, 13 July 2020

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Coronavirus: Alliance scientists respond to Cyber Security, Information the challenge, NATO News Release, 10 July Warfare & Hybrid Threats 2020 While NATO does not have its own NATO Policy Directors discuss strengthening resilience and preparations cyber weapons, the alliance established for second wave in the COVID-19 an operations centre in August 2018 at pandemic, NATO News Release, 9 July 2020 Mons, Belgium. Several member states have since offered their cyber NATO scientists help Connecticut forecast capabilities. The new NATO cyber the spread of COVID-19, NATO News Release, 3 July 2020 operations centre (CYOC) is expected to be fully staffed by 2023 and able to Deputy Secretary General at Brussels mount its own cyberattacks. Forum: NATO is responding in unity to the pandemic, NATO News Release, 30 June A Russian hacking group that calls 2020 itself Evil Corp. has conducted sophisticated ransomware attacks on Deputy Secretary General Geoană at Jagello Conference: Health and economic US companies, according to media downturn should not become a security reports in June. Experts say that these crisis, NATO News Release, 26 June 2020 attacks are a major threat to the US election infrastructure. NATO Defence Ministers plan for possible second wave of COVID-19, NATO News James Jones, Ian Brzezinski, Douglas Lute Release, 22 June 2020 and Robert Wheeler, NATO Must Move Out

The Role of NATO’s Armed Forces in The Smartly on 5G, Defense One, 13 August 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic, Draft Special Report by Attila Mesterhazy (Hungary), NATO Russia-aligned hackers running anti-Nato Parliamentary Assembly, Defence and fake news campaign – report, The Security Committee (DSC), 091 DSC 20 E, Guardian, 30 July 2020 18 June 2020 Anti-NATO disinformation effort uses Political Committee (PC), Covid-19 and coronavirus to poke political tensions, Transatlantic Security, Draft Special Report, CyberScoop, 29 July 2020 Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (UK), Chairperson, 105 PC 20 E, 17 June 2020 NATO’s approach to countering disinformation: a focus on COVID-19, Stop

Fake, 24 July 2020 If NATO was informed of the outbreak Meet Dan Black, a cyber analyst protecting in November, as US and Israeli sources NATO networks against cyber threats, have indicated, did NATO act on it and, NATO News Release, 20 July 2020 if so, how? Siemens and NATO CCDCOE cooperation: Must Read: Paul Rogers, Writing on the cybersecurity for critical infrastructure, Wall? The UK and the Early Warning Signs of Smart Energy, 6 July 2020 COVID-19, Oxford Research Group, 15 June 2020 Alan Borland, Why a Common Data Classification Standard is an imperative for

NATO, Enterprise Times, 23 June 2020 COVID-19 – NATO Military Police Centre of New Disinformation Detection Technology Excellence Started Initiative to Collect wins NATO’s Innovation Challenge Spring Lessons Learned, NATO Act News Release, 2020, NATO News Release, 18 June 2020 5 June 2020 Statement by the North Atlantic Council Thierry Tardy (ed.), COVID-19: NATO in the Age of Pandemics, NATO Defense College, concerning malicious cyber activities, NATO News Release, 3 June 2020 NDC Research Paper, May 2020

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Defence Budgets, Procurement Jakub Odehnal & Jiří Neubauer, Economic, and Burden Sharing Security, and Political Determinants of Military Spending in NATO Countries, The burden-sharing debate has Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 31 no.5, dominated successive NATO Summit 2020, pp. 517-531

(see, for, example the discussion in NATO Airlift Management Program Observatory No. 48). expands C-17 training capability, Skies Magazine, 24 July 2020 German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is pushing for a NATO spending rules need revising due to new yardstick to measure Berlin's coronavirus, German defense chief says, contributions to NATO, suggesting the Deutsche Welle, 17 July 2020 country could shoulder 10% percent of NATO receives third Phoenix UAV as AGS alliance requirements. The figure is tracks towards IOC, Jane’s, 16 July 2020 meant to reflect the share of NATO’s total “planning targets,” a German NATO participates in Albanian OSCE Chairmanship High-Level Conference on defence ministry spokesman said. combating corruption, NATO News Release, NATO’s future fleet of multi-role 7 July 2020 aircraft marked an important milestone First aircraft of NATO’s future multi-role at the end of June as the first of the tanker transport fleet lands at Eindhoven eight aircraft in the fleet landed at the airbase, NATO News Release, 30 June 2020 main operating base in Eindhoven, the Airbus delivers first A330 aircraft to Nato Netherlands. The aircraft, an Airbus A- fleet, Air Force Technology, 30 June 2020 330, arrived from the production facility in Getafe (Spain). In addition, Northrop Grumman supports Nato RQ-4D NATO received the third and fourth of Phoenix training, Airforce Technology, 25 June 2020 five Northrop Grumman RQ-4D Phoenix unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that Unified Vision 2020 to guide further will form the air component of its development of NATO Joint Intelligence, Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) Surveillance and Reconnaissance capability. capabilities, NATO News Release, 22 June 2020

Airbus delivers second A330 MRTT aircraft NATO’s new surveillance drone begins test to Nato, Airforce Technology, 12 August flights over the Mediterranean, Defense 2020 News, 22 June 2020

Harvey Sapolsky, Beware of Latvians Kristýna Pavlíčková & Monika Gabriela Bearing Gifts, National Interest, 9 August Bartoszewicz, To free or not to free (ride): a 2020 comparative analysis of the NATO burden-

Germany floats a new NATO spending sharing in the Czech Republic and yardstick: 10 percent, Defense News, 7 Lithuania, Defense & Security Analysis, vol. August 2020 36 no.3, 2020, pp. 335-351

The cost of Europe’s defense, Editorial, Emerging and Disruptive Technology: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 7 August 2020 workshop on Technology, Security and Finance, NATO News Release, 2020 The race is on to replace NATO’s early- warning aircraft fleet, Defense News, 6 Wukki Kim and Todd Sandler, NATO at 70: August 2020 Pledges, Free Riding, and Benefit-Burden Concordance, Defence and Peace Eastern European NATO allies ramp up Economics, vol. 31, no.4, 2020, pp. 400- drone buys to protect their borders, 413 Defense News, 6 August 2020 Rebecca R. Robison, NATO burden-sharing: NATO receives fourth RQ-4D Phoenix A comprehensive framework for member remotely piloted aircraft, Defence Blog, 28 evaluation, Comparative Strategy, vol. 39 July 2020 no.3, 2020, pp.299-315

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Energy Security several NATO summits since, and most recently in July 2018. According to the 2018 Brussels Summit Declaration, energy security plays an Timothy Ogden, The siren song of important role in NATO’s common promised NATO membership for some security. A stable and reliable energy post-Soviet states, New Europe, 20 August supply increases the alliance’s 2020 resilience against political and Former NATO general Breedlove: Nobody economic pressure (para 76). While has contributed to NATO more than recognising these issues are primarily a Georgia, Agend.ge, 18 August 2020 national responsibility, NATO “will Kakhaber Kemoklidze and Natia Seskuria, continue regular allied consultations on Twelve Years Since the August War, Georgia issues related to energy security” and Still Faces Russian Aggression, RUSI “refine NATO’s role in energy security Commentary, 12 August 2020 in accordance with established 28 Georgian soldiers infected with principles and guidelines, and continue coronavirus in Afghanistan, Khaama News, to develop NATO’s capacity to support 11 July 2020 national authorities in protecting critical infrastructure”. Irakli Beraia, Georgia strengthens democracy, moves closer to NATO with US Arnold C. Dupuy, Energy security in the era support, The Hill, 11 July 2020 of hybrid warfare, Atlantic Council, 12 Georgian peacekeepers arrive for Afghan August 2020 NATO mission, Agenda, 8 July 2020

Petr Iskenderov, Nord Stream 2 undermines Defence ministry to buy NATO-standard NATO unity, Modern Diplomacy, 13 July hardware in update effort, Agenda.ge, 3 2020 June 2020

Enlargement & Partnerships Japan

Bosnia Herzegovina Japan is the longest-standing of NATO’s ‘partners across the globe’. Building on Bosnia and Herzegovina became a initial contacts in the early 1990s, member of the NATO Partnership for dialogue on common security interests Peace programme in 2006 and was has become more regular and invited to join the Membership Action structured. NATO and Japan committed Plan (MAP) in 2010. However, it was to strengthen cooperation in a joint only in 2018 that NATO Foreign political declaration in April 2013. Ministers agreed to accept the country’s first Annual National Secretary General commends strong Programme—a precondition for cooperation between NATO and Japan, activation of the MAP. NATO News Release, 23 July 2020

Bosnian Minister of Defense met with Mauritania Commander of the NATO Headquarters in Sarajevo, Sarajevo Times, 24 August 2020 NATO’s Science for Peace and Security Programme has launched Bosnia and Herzegovina benefits from further Allied assistance against global “PROMEDEUS”, a new project which will pandemic, NATO News Release, 29 June further enhance Mauritania’s crisis 2020 management system. It builds on the achievements of two previous projects that established a crisis management Georgia centre in Nouakchott and four regional A 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration operational coordination centres. The promised eventual NATO membership new project aims to support the for Georgia—a position reiterated at development of Mauritania’s

15 operational capabilities and foreign terrorist fighters, and emergencies management in the fields strengthening capabilities to deal with of public health and civil protection. threats posed by terrorist attacks with the use of chemical, biological, New project to boost Mauritania’s crisis radiological or nuclear weapons. management capabilities launched, NATO News Release, 10 July 2020 NATO, UN and Civil Society discuss fight against conflict-related sexual violence,

NATO News Release, 2 July 2020 Policy NATO and the UN hold consultations on Andres Kasekamp, An uncertain journey to COVID-19 response, NATO News Release, the promised land: The Baltic states’ road 29 June 2020 to NATO membership, Journal of Strategic Studies, 2020 NATO, UN and Civil Society discuss fight against conflict-related sexual violence, NATO Deputy Secretary General stresses NATO News Release, 19 June 2020 the importance of security partnership for democracy, NATO News Release, 19 June 2020 Ukraine

Ukraine signed a partnership Serbia agreement with NATO in 1997 and

Unlike other Western Balkan partners, launched talks on full membership in Serbia does not aspire to join NATO. 2005. But those talks never progressed However, the country is deepening its far, and the situation became even political dialogue and cooperation with more complicated when Russia invaded the alliance on issues of common Ukrainian territory in 2014, annexing interest, such as defence reforms. In Crimea and launching irregular warfare early July, Serbia officially inducted six in other parts of the country. Since Chinese CH-92A attack/reconnaissance 2014, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cooperation has intensified. drones into the country's armed forces. The country will also be purchasing On 12 June NATO recognised Ukraine Chinese-made FK-3 air defence missile as an Enhanced Opportunities Partner. system, the export version of the HQ- This status is part of NATO’s 22 system, in the near future. This Partnership Interoperability Initiative, makes Serbia the first European which aims to maintain and deepen country to deploy Chinese unmanned cooperation between allies and aerial vehicles. These deals have led partners that have made significant some NATO members to worry about contributions to NATO-led operations closer ties between Beijing and and missions. Ukraine is now one of six Belgrade. Enhanced Opportunities Partners, alongside Australia, Finland, Georgia, NATO over-sensitive to Serbia’s pragmatic arms purchase from China, Global Times, Jordan and Sweden. Each of the 10 August 2020 partners has a tailor-made relationship with NATO, based on areas of mutual interest. UN-NATO Relations A meeting of NATO-Ukraine Practical cooperation between NATO Commission in Brussels on 8 July and the UN includes operations in focused on reforms and developments Afghanistan and Iraq, cooperation on in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. tackling terrorist misuse of technology, countering improvised explosive The disposal of unserviceable devices, border security, providing ammunition in Ukraine has been assistance to NATO allies in the resumed under the NATO Trust Fund identification and prosecution of Demilitarization Project framework,

16 managed by the NATO Support and Florian Encke, An independent and Procurement Agency (NSPA). These sovereign Ukraine is key to Euro-Atlantic security, NATO Review, 8 July 2020 activities were interrupted earlier this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Maronkova: Ukraine should carry out Special procedures have been put in appropriate reforms on path towards place to ensure compliance with the NATO, Ukrinform, 3 July 2020 sanitary and epidemiological "Ice has broken": Zelensky could meet with regulations and to provide a safe Hungarian PM, UNIAN, 24 June 2020 working environment. Yuri Lapaiev, Ukraine-NATO: Politicians The Trust Fund was established in 2005 Struggle, While Military Acts, Eurasia Daily at the request of the Ukrainian Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 90, 23 June Government, and the second phase of 2020 the project was initiated in 2011. Since Ukraine gets NATO's EOP status by then, NSPA has contributed to the "automatic consensus" – Deputy PM, disposal of more than 29,600 tons of UNIAN, 23 June 2020 ammunition, 2.4 million PFM-1(S) NATO recognises Ukraine as Enhanced antipersonnel landmines and employed Opportunities Partner, NATO News Release, up to 110 people in the region. With the 12 June 2020 restarting of activities, another 1,500 tons of unserviceable munitions are Top Ukrainian And German Diplomats Talk NATO And Conflict In Eastern Ukraine, expected to be destroyed and safely RFE/RL 2 June 2020 disposed by the end of 2020.

Disposal of Unserviceable Ammunition History Resumes in Ukraine Under NATO Trust Fund Project, NATO News, 18 August 2020 In 1976, the Soviet Union began deploying a new missile, the SS-20, that Three membership components: What will Ukraine's path towards NATO be?, was one of the pivotal events of the Ukrinform, 17 August 2020 Cold War, igniting a confrontation between NATO and the USSR over Poll: nearly 60% of Ukrainians support EU medium-range “Euromissiles”. accession, almost 50% – joining NATO, UNIAN, 13 August 2020 John T. Correll, The Euromissile Showdown,

NATO boosts scientific cooperation with Air Force Magazine, 1 February 2020

Ukraine, NATO News Release, 7 August 2020 Libya and intra-NATO conflict in NATO could deploy middle-range missiles the Eastern Mediterranean in Ukraine, - Lukashenko, 112 International, 7 August 2020 Libya has been in conflict since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising deposed Statement by the NATO PA President on and killed Moammar Gadhafi. The ceasefire implementation in Eastern Ukraine, NATO PA News Release, 27 July country has since been split between 2020 rival administrations in the east and the west, each backed by armed groups NATO EOP: Defense Ministry outlines and different foreign governments. benefits for Ukraine, Ukrinform, 24 July 2020 The UN backed Government of National

Ukraine's defense minister invites NATO Accord (GNA) in Tripoli led by Fayez Allies to join national drills this fall, UNIAN, Sarraj is supported by Turkey, which 10 July 2020 sent troops and mercenaries to protect the capital in January, as well as Italy Meeting of NATO-Ukraine Commission and Qatar. The NATO Secretary General focuses on reforms, developments in Donbas, UNIAN, 9 July 2020 has also indicated his support for the GNA. In the eastern city of Tobruk, Libya’s House of Representatives, with

17 military forces under the command of introduction of mechanisms that would Khalifa Hifter (who launched an avoid similar incidents in the future. offensive on Tripoli last year), is backed French-Turkish tensions continued to by a number of Arab countries, build with the Turkish Foreign minister including Egypt and the UAE and overtly Mevlut Cavusoglu saying on 2 July that at least by Russia and France. “Our expectation from France at the In July the GNA, backed by Turkey moment is for it to apologize in a clear reversed a year-old attack on the capital fashion, without ifs or buts, for not by Haftar’s army, but fears continued to providing the correct information”. grow of a new escalation in the chaotic French President Emmanuel Macron proxy war, as rival sides mobilised for responded by saying that “We have the a battle over Sirte, the gateway to the right to expect more from Turkey than country’s major oil export terminals, from Russia given that it is a member which are under General Hafter’s of NATO”. control. However, towards the end of In June NATO Secretary General Jens August the GNA announced a ceasefire Stoltenberg said that the Libyan arms and in a separate statement, Aguila embargo “needs to be respected by all Saleh, speaker of the rival east-based sides”, however, the embargo does not House of Representatives, also called equate Libya's UN-recognized for a ceasefire. government with the forces led by Intra NATO divisions Khalifa Haftar. Therefore, “NATO is At the beginning of July France ready to give its support to the suspended its role in Operation Sea government of Tripoli”, said Guardian, a NATO operation aiming to Stoltenberg having discussed the counter maritime terrorism and ensure situation separately with the Libyan freedom of navigation, after accusing Prime Minister and Turkish President Turkey of violating the UN arms Erdogan. Although NATO is prepared to embargo against Libya. France’s follow through on its promise in withdrawal from the NATO operation helping Libya's UN-recognized came after its frigate Courbet tried to government with developing defence inspect the cargo ship Cirkin on 10 and security institutions, political June, suspecting it was smuggling negotiations, led by the UN and arms. involving all parties, is the only solution to the crisis, said Stoltenberg. According to France, its frigate Courbet was unable to inspect the cargo after Turkey and Greece are also at odds in a being targeted three times by weapon race to develop energy resources in the and defence systems from Turkish Eastern Mediterranean. The two warships escorting the Cirkin. However, countries have laid claim to according to Turkey's ambassador to overlapping areas, arguing they belong France Ismail Hakki Musa, the Courbet to their respective continental shelves. was the aggressor while the Cirkin was In July, Turkey put out a naval alert that only carrying humanitarian aid. Musa it was sending its Oruc Reis research also said, that the NATO report ship to carry out a drilling survey in investigating the 10 June incident was waters close to the Greek island of “inconclusive”, to which the French Kastellorizo, a short distance from the defence ministry responded that France coast of south-west Turkey. The alert will not recommit to Operation Sea prompted alarm in the Greek military, Guardian until the UN arms embargo is and relations between Greece and respected by all NATO allies. France Turkey deteriorated until German also demanded, amongst other things, intervention, brought a commitment to better NATO and EU coordination to dialogue. However, in August Greece enforce the embargo and the signed a deal with Egypt to set up a

18 maritime zone that infuriated Turkey. NATO to probe France-Turkey Med naval German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas incident, Associated Press, 18 June 2020 urged Greece and Turkey to de-escalate M. K. Bhadrakumar, NATO Returns to Libya their territorial dispute, while the NATO to Challenge Russia, Counter Punch, 4 June Secretary General also called for 2020 dialogue between the two parties. M K Bhadrakumar, NATO vs Russia: Who

NATO chief Stoltenberg calls for Turkish- will win Libya?, Global Village Space, 1 June Greek dialogue on East Med tensions, Daily 2020

Sabah, 26 August 2020

NATO allies are facing off in the Eastern Maritime Security

Mediterranean. The conflict could entangle NATO’s 2011 Maritime Strategy sets the entire region, CNN, 26 August 2020 out a series of activities that includes Germany's Maas calls on Greece and Turkey collective defence, crisis management, to avoid 'catastrophe', Deutsche Welle, 25 cooperative security and maritime August 2020 security. In July, the outgoing chief of US Naval Forces Europe-Africa Adm. Gadhafi’s cousin: NATO, UN Security Council responsible for Libya’s crisis, James G. Foggo said NATO needed a Middle East Monitor, 8 August 2020 new naval strategy to counter Russia and China. Foggo noted in an interview Philip Kowalski, Why U.S. Engagement in the changes in global naval security in Libya Is Critical for Strengthening NATO, the nine years since NATO formalized a National Interest, 24 July 2020 sea strategy, which he said currently Heather Conley and Rachel Ellehus, How takes no account of "the return, or the NATO Can Avoid a Strategic Decoupling in resurgence, of the Russian submarine the Eastern Mediterranean, CSIS force". "It misses the rise of China as a Commentary. 17 July 2020 great power, it misses completely the Candace Rondeaux, Libya’s Expanding illegal annexation of Ukraine [in 2014]," Proxy War May Be the Ultimate Test of Foggo said. "That's not a criticism of NATO’s Resilience, World Politics Review, NATO. That's just something that, you 17 July 2020 know, I'm making my colleagues aware Andrei Isaev, Libyan conflict puts NATO to of. I think we need to do a refresh". the test, Modern Diplomacy, 13 July 2020 Royal Navy and Nato allies escort nine Talha Köse, NATO and EU share tragedy in Russian vessels, Naval Technology, 20 Libya crisis, Daily Sabah, 13 July 2020 August 2020

Emile Hokayem, Libya: a cauldron for NATO Looks to Replace Pair of R&D Vessels, Mediterranean power politics, IISS Analysis, National Defense, 19 August 2020 6 July 2020 In the North Atlantic, NATO navies are France-Turkey spat over Libya arms practicing to take on a wave of Russian exposes NATO’s limits, AP, 5 July 2020 submarines, Business Insider, 31 July 2020

Libya crisis: France suspends Nato mission Matthew Thomas, Maritime Security Issues role amid Turkey row, BBC News, 2 July in the Baltic Sea Region, Foreign Policy 2020 Research Institute, 22 July 2020

Serife Cetin, NATO shows signs of change Outgoing U.S. Naval Forces-Europe chief in its Libya policy, Anadolu Agency, 23 June calls for new NATO maritime strategy, UPI 2020 News, 17 July 2020

NATO concerned by growing Russian NATO exercises with Tunisian Navy in the presence in Libya, Anadolu Agency, 23 June Mediterranean, Defence Blog, 4 June 2020 2020 NATO Allied ships patrol in the Black Sea, M.K.Bhadrakumar, NATO returns to Libya NATO News Release, 20 June 2020 to challenge Russia, New Europe, 19 June 2020

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Military Exercises NATO navies test readiness in Baltic war games, Emerging Europe, 9 June 2020 NATO scaled down military exercises in Europe to curb the spread of the NATO navies and air forces exercise in the Baltic Sea, NATO News Release, 8 June 2020 coronavirus. Exercise Baltic Operations (BALTOPS) led by Naval Striking and Dylan Malyasov, NATO launches massive Support Forces NATO finished its 49th maritime-focused exercise close to Russia, Defence Blog, 7 June 2020 iteration in the Baltic Sea in mid-June. Held in the Baltic region since 1972, Warships mass in the Baltic Sea for a BALTOPS provides maritime-focused coronavirus-conscious battle drill, Defense training exercise for NATO allies and News, 4 June 2020 partners. Training events include air Air and maritime assets from NATO allies defence, anti-submarine warfare, to kick off Baltic Operations exercise, Navy maritime interdiction and mine Recognition, 2 June 2020 countermeasure operations. Also in NATO's BALTOPS 2020 exercise to involve June, the US and five other NATO allies 19 countries, UPI, 1 June 2020 took part in the anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare exercise Dynamic Illimar Ploom, Zdzislaw Sliwa and Viljar Mongoose off the coast of Iceland. Veebel, The NATO “Defender 2020” exercise in the Baltic States: Will measured escalation lead to credible deterrence or US bombers arrive in Europe for training provoke an escalation?, Comparative with NATO Allies and partners, NATO News Strategy, vol. 39 no4, 2020, pp. 368-384 Release, 22 August 2020

Ramstein airmen join Bulgarian forces in paradrop exercises near NATO’s eastern NATO 2030 Reflection Group borders, Stars and Stripes, 20 August 2020 NATO leaders agreed at their December NATO Anti-Submarine Exercise Dynamic 2019 summit in London that Secretary Mongoose Kicks Off With U.S. Destroyer, General Jens Stoltenberg should head SSN, USNI News, 30 June 2020 up a "reflection process" aimed at

US, NATO allies start anti-submarine strengthening the alliance’s political warfare exercise Dynamic Mongoose, Navy dimension. Stoltenberg named a panel Times, 29 June 2020 of 10 experts on 31 March 2020—five

NATO's Dynamic Mongoose submarine men and five women—to be co-chaired exercises underway in North Atlantic, , UPI, by Thomas de Maizière, a member of 29 June 2020 the Bundestag and former German defence minister and A. Wess Mitchell, NATO exercise helps improve a former assistant secretary of state for interoperability for 22 nations across 10 time zones, NATO News Release, 26 June European affairs in Trump's administration. 2020

G. Thomas, P. Williams, and Y. Dyakova, On the 8 June, NATO Secretary General Exercise Defender-Europe 20: enablement Jens Stoltenberg launched his outline and resilience in action, NATO Review, 16 for NATO 2030 in an online June 2020 conversation with two US think-tanks,

Russia, NATO conduct parallel wargames the Atlantic Council and the German over Baltic Sea, Military Times, 12 June Marshall Fund of the United States. 2020 “This is an opportunity to reflect on where we see our alliance ten years Russia Military Conducts Combat Training as U.S., Allies Drill in Baltic, Setting Stage from now, and how it will continue to for Further Rivalry, Newsweek, 11 June keep us safe in a more uncertain world” 2020 the Secretary General said. However, the NATO Secretary General’s launch Explainer: Why The U.S.-NATO Exercises In event and the make-up of the Reflection Eastern Europe Are Important, RFE/RL, 10 June 2020 Group suggest that this reflection

20 process will not be challenging the NATO eyes deeper ties in China’s position of the United States as the key neighbourhood, Defence Connect, 11 June 2020 determinant of strategic processes within the alliance. Stoltenberg urges NATO unity amid

challenges from China, Russia, RFE/RL, 8 For further details read: NATO’s June 2020 reflection process (NATO 2030): will it Stoltenberg Launches 'NATO 2030' Effort to address the twin elephants in the room Strengthen Alliance, US Department of (American exceptionalism and Defense, 8 June 2020 militarism)? NATO Watch Briefing Paper NATO chief seeks to forge deeper ties in No.77, 16 June 2020 China’s neighbourhood, Defense News, 8 June 2020

Will NATO Still Be Relevant in the Future? NATO chief urges allies not to go it alone, Washington Diplomat, 7 August 2020 Military Times, 8 June 2020

Will NATO still be relevant in the future? NATO must become more political and Atlantic Council debate, 24 July 2020 global, says alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg, Hans Binnendijk and Timo S. Koste, NATO EuroNews, 8 June 2020 needs a new core task, Defense News, 22 Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens July 2020 Stoltenberg on launching #NATO2030 - George Robertson, NATO needs its full Strengthening the Alliance in an strength to resist Chinese and Russian increasingly competitive world, 8 June threats, The Times, 20 July 2020 (paywall) 2020

Ana Palacio, NATO Is Dying, Project Secretary General launches NATO 2030 to Syndicate, 15 July 2020 make our strong Alliance even stronger, NATO News Release, 8 June 2020 Ian Bond, Europe must take on its own defense responsibilities, Defense News, 3 July 2020 NATO Defence Ministers Meeting

NATO Secretary General underlines the – June 2020 need for NATO to take a more global The NATO Defence Ministers held a approach, NATO News Release, 30 June 2020 virtual two-day meeting in June to discuss: preparations for a possible NATO Chief Talks Nuclear Arms, Burden- second wave of COVID-19; updating sharing, NATO 2030, US Department of national resilience guidelines; Defense, News Release, 26 June 2020 deterrence and defence, including the Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens response to Russia’s new nuclear- Stoltenberg at the Brussels Forum, 23 Jun. capable missiles and the rise of China; 2020 and NATO missions and operations, Katarína Klingová, #NATO2030 – particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq. Preparation for Future Challenges, Globsec Key activities and decisions taken: Commentary, 22 June 2020 • A new operational plan was agreed, Peter Roberts, NATO 2030: Difficult Times to be ready for any second wave of Ahead, RUSI Commentary, 15 June 2020 COVID-19. No details of the plan Frederick Kempe, U.S. and European were provided and it is unclear if it tensions jeopardize 75 years of democracy, will be published. It was also agreed open markets and individual rights, CNBC, to create a stockpile of medical 14 June 2020 equipment and supplies, and a new Gorana Grgic, NATO: Rebranding exercise fund to acquire those supplies (see or new product launch? The Interpreter, 12 COVID-19 section above). June 2020

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• Ministers agreed to update baseline • Various intra-NATO divisions requirements for national resilience persisted: Turkey continued to block to take account of cyber threats; the a NATO defence plan for Poland and security of supply chains, and the Baltic states; while NATO agreed consequences of foreign ownership to investigate a recent incident and control. Again, it is unclear between Turkish warships and a whether or not these ‘baseline French naval vessel in the requirements’ will be publicly Mediterranean (see above). available.

• A “balanced package of political and For further details read: Papering military elements” was agreed in over the cracks in NATO’s uncertain response to Russia’s “destabilizing world A review of the NATO Defence and dangerous” behaviour. Some Ministers meeting, Brussels, 17-18 June parts of the package were outlined, 2020, NATO Watch Briefing Paper including strengthened air and No.78, 24 June 2020

missile defence, advanced conventional capabilities, Eleven Allies launch Multinational Initiative intelligence, exercises, and “steps to on Pilot Training, NATO News Release, 19 keep NATO’s nuclear deterrent safe, June 2020

secure and effective”. The exact NATO chief sees no ‘imminent threat’ nature of the nuclear-related steps against allies in face of China, Russia was not disclosed; deployment of tensions, CNBC, 18 June 2020 new land-based nuclear missiles in Europe continue to be ruled out. NATO Defense Ministers Look to Counter Russia, 2nd COVID-19 Wave, US • The US Defense Secretary said that Department of Defense, 18 June 2020

Washington would consult NATO Readout of Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. allies on the next steps in plans to Esper's Remarks at the NATO Defense withdraw some US troops from Ministerial, US Department of Defense, 18 Germany (see Germany section June 2020

below). NATO Defence Ministers plan for possible • Ministers expressed concern about second wave of COVID-19, NATO News Release, 18 June 2020 the consequences of the rise of China (see China section above). NATO Looks to Counter Russia’s Growing Nuclear Capabilities, Air Force Magazine, Ministers reiterated their strong • 17 June 2020 commitment to Afghanistan’s long- term security; to support the peace NATO Defence Ministers agree response to process NATO is “adjusting” its Russian missile challenge, address presence in Afghanistan (i.e. missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, NATO News Release, 17 June 2020 attempting an organized and managed exit). In Iraq, NATO NATO concerned by Russia’s growing remains committed to enhancing its presence in E.Med, Anadolu Agency, 16 June 2020 training mission and to increasing its presence when conditions allow (see NATO Ministers of Defence meet to discuss Operations section below). global challenges, NATO News Release, 16 June 2020 • Eleven NATO Defence Ministers (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, NATO Parliamentary Assembly

Montenegro, North Macedonia, Since being formed in 1965, the NATO Portugal, Romania, Spain and Parliamentary Assembly has provided a Turkey) launched a multilateral forum for parliamentarians from the initiative on pilot training. NATO member states to promote

22 debate on key security challenges, Nigel Walker, The NATO Parliamentary facilitate mutual understanding and Assembly and UK delegations, UK House of support national parliamentary Commons Briefing Paper, No. CBP 8951, 30 oversight of defence matters. The June 2020

NATO Parliamentary Assembly consists of 269 delegates from the 30 NATO NATO Secretary General on member states. Each delegation is Desert Island Discs based on the country’s size. In addition to delegations from NATO member Desert Island Discs is a UK radio states, delegates from associate programme broadcast on BBC Radio 4. countries and parliamentary observer It was first broadcast in1942. Each delegations take part in Assembly week a guest, called a 'castaway' during activities and bring the total number of the programme, is asked to choose delegates to approximately 360. eight recordings (usually, but not always, music), a book and a luxury The Assembly has five Committees – item that they would take if they were the Committee on the Civil Dimension to be cast away on a desert island, of Security; Defence and Security whilst discussing their lives and the Committee; Economics and Security reasons for their choices. The NATO Committee; Political Committee; and Secretary General was the castaway in the Science and Technology Committee an episode broadcast in July. – and eight sub-committees. Much of the Assembly’s work is carried out by BBC Desert Island Discs these committees. Podcast Released On: 12 Jul 2020 (Available for over a year): Jens In July the Assembly concluded three Stoltenberg is the Secretary General of weeks of online committee meetings. NATO and a former Prime Minister of During these meetings, allied Norway. Although he was born into a legislators reviewed the many political family in Norway, he grew up dimensions of the COVID-19 crisis, thinking he would become a examined the opportunities and statistician, before turning to a career challenges related to China’s rise, and in politics. He served as the Prime discussed a range of other challenges Minister of Norway twice. During his affecting Euro-Atlantic security. All second term, Norway experienced one Assembly’s draft reports and of the darkest days in its recent history, recordings of Committee meetings are when 77 people were murdered in a available on the NATO PA website. bomb attack in Oslo and a mass A second round of online committee shooting on a nearby island. Before meetings will be held from 31 August becoming the Secretary General of to 16 September. One of the NATO, a post he has held since 2014, Assembly’s key priorities this autumn he spent time as a UN Special Envoy on will be to develop its contribution to the climate change. His term in office as NATO 2030 reflection process led by Secretary-General has been extended NATO Secretary General Jens until September 2022. Presenter: Stoltenberg (see above). Lauren Laverne Producer: Sarah Taylor

Music choices: Four months into COVID-19 pandemic, NATO PA Bureau takes stock of Assembly’s • Madrugada and Ane Brun: Lift Me priorities and activities, NATO PA News • Smerz: No Harm Release, 17 July 2020 • Leonard Cohen: So Long, Marianne Allied and Ukrainian lawmakers condemn • Bruce Springsteen: Hungry Heart Russian destabilisation, discuss COVID-19 • Ane Brun: Make You Feel My Love crisis, reform efforts, and NATO-Ukraine cooperation, NATO PA News Release, 7 July • Ingebjorg Bratland: Til Ungdommen 2020

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• The Special A.K.A.: Free Nelson safeguard the country’s sovereignty Mandela against potential adversaries.

• Ingrid Olava: From Up Here It outlines four scenarios in which Book choice: Textbook on statistics Moscow could order the use of nuclear weapons, and some of them involve Luxury item: A pair of skis potential first-use of nuclear weapons. Springsteen and Stoltenberg: NATO In line with Russian military doctrine, Secretary-General Picks Top Tracks, New the new document reaffirms that the York Times, 17 July 2020 country could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or an Ryan C. Hendrickson, Servant of the institution: Secretary General Lord Peter aggression involving conventional Carrington, NATO Review, 14 July 2020 weapons that “threatens the very existence of the state”.

Nuclear Weapons The two other provisions confirm what has often been suspected: that Moscow NATO’s collective defence strategy is can launch nuclear weapons in cases in based on a mix of nuclear, conventional which the government receives reliable and missile defence capabilities. The information that a ballistic missile alliance continues to argue that its attack is imminent or when actions (i.e. nuclear arrangements are fully a cyberattack) on critically important consistent with the 1968 Non- government or military infrastructure Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while could undermine Russia’s nuclear rejecting the 2017 Treaty on the retaliatory capacity. The new expanded Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) wording reflects Russian concerns as being “inconsistent with the about the development of prospective alliance’s nuclear deterrence policy”. conventional and cyber weapons that Both are questionable claims. could give the United States the

A new Russian nuclear policy capability to knock out key Russian document military assets and government President Vladimir Putin approved a facilities without resorting to nuclear strategic document on the basic weapons. principles of Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy on 2 June, naming the Further reading: creation and deployment of anti-missile Olga Oliker, New Document Consolidates and strike weapons in space as one of Russia’s Nuclear Policy in One Place, 4 June 2020 the main military threats to Russia. In this six-page document, “Foundations Pavel Felgenhauer, Moscow Clarifies Its of State Policy of the Russian Federation Nuclear Deterrence Policy, Eurasia Daily in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence” (in Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 80, 4 June Russian)—published for the first time; 2020 all prior iterations were classified— Marek Menkiszak, Russia’s New Rhetorical includes four main sections: general Deterrence, RUSI Commentary, 10 June principles; substance of deterrence 2020

(that is, what deterrence means to Gustav Gressel, Russia’s nuclear deterrence Russia); the conditions under which principles: what they imply, and what they Russia would use nuclear weapons; and do not, ECFR Commentary, 12 June 2020 the roles of Russian government institutions and agencies. Much of what Maxim Starchak, Russia's New Nuclear Strategy: Unanswered Questions, RUSI the document contains is not new. Commentary, 26 June 2020 Russia argues that its nuclear weapons policy is defensive and designed to

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US administration discusses from for its submarine-launched resumption of nuclear testing Trident missiles.

Reports suggest that the US UK lobbies US to support controversial new administration is considering a nuclear warheads, The Guardian, 1 August resumption of nuclear weapons testing. 2020 Such an outcome would reverse a decades-long moratorium on such Nuclear war simulation actions. (The last US nuclear test A team of researchers at Princeton explosion was in 1992.) The matter University developed a simulation for a arose following accusations from US plausible escalating war between the administration officials that Russia and United States and Russia using realistic China are conducting low-yield nuclear nuclear force postures, targets and tests—an assertion that both countries fatality estimates. It is estimated that have denied and that has not been there would be more than 90 million substantiated by publicly available people dead and injured within the first evidence. few hours of the conflict.

US control of nuclear weapons on For more, see: https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a European soil A formerly ‘top secret’ document from Watch the four minute video: 1961, made public by the American https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jy3JU -ORpo&feature=youtu.be National Security Archive, shows that the United States could unilaterally Plan A: How a Nuclear War Could Progress, decide to use its nuclear weapons Arms Control Today, July/August 2020 based in European countries. When the agreement to store US nuclear weapons In the context of the pandemic, this on European soil was negotiated, updated study explores the ongoing countries such as Denmark, Germany, and planned nuclear weapon Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and modernisation programmes in China, Portugal failed to enforce their right of the Democratic People's Republic of approval in using these weapons. Korea, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Must Read: The U.S. Nuclear Presence in Russia, the United Kingdom, and the Western Europe, 1954-1962, National United States. Non-governmental Security Archive, 21 July 2020 researchers and analysts provide information on each country’s UK supports controversial new US modernisation programmes, plans, and nuclear warhead budgets. The nuclear-armed states are The UK has been lobbying the US spending billions of dollars to Congress in support of a controversial "upgrade" their nuclear weapons and new warhead for Trident missiles, delivery systems—in direct claiming it is critical for “the future of contradiction to their legal obligations NATO as a nuclear alliance”. A letter for nuclear disarmament. from Britain’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, seen by The Guardian Must Read: Assuring destruction Forever: newspaper, urged Congress to support 2020 Edition, Reaching Critical Will, initial spending on the warhead, the Women’s International League for Peace W93. The letter, sent in April but not and Freedom, June 2020 previously reported, draws the UK into Asima Ashraf, Relevancy of Russian Non- a US political debate, pitting the Trump Strategic Nuclear Weapons in current administration against many NATO-Russian threat environment, Modern Democrats and arms control groups Diplomacy, 29 July 2020 over whether the $14bn W93 Marion Messmer, Strategic Risk Reduction programme is necessary. The US navy in the European Context, BASIC, June 2020 already has two warheads to choose

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Jon B. Wolfsthal, America should welcome a need a stronger and more firm discussion about NATO’s nuclear strategy, demonstration of that”). At the same Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 29 June time, he stressed that “the situation in 2020 Afghanistan remains fragile, difficult Oliver Meier, Liability or Asset? The EU and and there are many obstacles that we Nuclear Weapons, Clingendael Spectator, have to overcome before we have a 16 June 2020 lasting political solution”. There is now

Wilfred Wan, Nuclear risks are laid bare by “an ongoing conversation” in NATO on COVID-19, European Leadership Network how best to support the peace efforts Commentary, 11 June 2020 by “adjusting our presence”, the Secretary General said. Vincent Boulanin, Lora Saalman, Petr Topychkanov, Fei Su and Moa Peldán The NATO mission, which is in the Carlsson, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic process of reducing troop numbers Stability and Nuclear Risk, SIPRI Report, from about 16,000 troops to roughly June 2020 12,000 troops, is preparing to make Jessica Cox, Nuclear deterrence today, further reductions “in a coordinated, NATO Review, 8 June 2020 planned and orderly way”. But that

David Mackenzie, Scots and Germans Make “depends on the peace process, Common Cause on Nuclear Weapons, Bella because this is a direct result of the US- Caledonia, 5 June 2020 Taliban agreement and the efforts to

Michèle Flournoy and Jim Townsend have a real peace process in Striking at the Heart of the Trans-Atlantic Afghanistan”, he added. Asked about a Bargain, Spiegel International, 3 June 2020 potential unilateral US pull-out from Afghanistan (the US troop level is Becky Alexis-Martin, Trump is looking to already down to 8,600 from around restart nuclear tests for the first time in 28 years, and we should all be worried, 12,000), the Secretary General again Independent, 2 June 2020 stressed that it would be a coordinated approach: “we made a decision earlier Katarzyna Kubiak, Playing Warsaw against this year to move to what we call Phase Berlin on nuclear weapons, European A-Light which is a reduced NATO Leadership Network Commentary, 1 June 2020 presence in Afghanistan. But we maintained the bases, the regional Matthew Kroenig, Shadows on the wall: presence of the NATO forces in Deterrence and disarmament, Comparative Afghanistan, including with a German- Strategy, Vol. 39 no. 4, 2020, pp. 401-403 led presence in Mazar-i-Sharif in the north, with many other allies. And also Operations and Missions the Italian-led presence in Herat, in the west of Afghanistan. And we will now Afghanistan have a process in NATO where we will

At the NATO Defence Ministers meeting sit together, the US and all other allies in June the NATO Secretary General and discuss different options, different stated that there had been “some possibilities for further reductions. But progress” in Afghanistan, including the of course, that will be done in a February agreement between the coordinated way, in an orderly way, and United States and the Taliban, some it will depend on the developments in Afghanistan”. important steps on prisoners’ release, and some reduction in violence and “no However, increased attacks from the attacks against NATO and US forces”. Taliban on Afghanistan’s security He also added that “we are also seeing forces, which in June suffered their a clear commitment from the Taliban to worst weekly casualties so far in the 19- break all ties with al-Qaeda and other year-old Afghan war—with 291 terrorist groups” (but in response to members of Afghan National and question qualified this by saying, “We Defence Security Forces killed and 550

26 others wounded in multiple Taliban Dec 1979 – 15 Feb 1989), the Soviet attacks—as well as an initial reluctance Union lost 15,000 troops in battle on the part of President Ashraf Ghani’s against the mujahideen, forerunners of government to release 5,000 Taliban today’s Taliban, who had received $20 prisoners, as stipulated in the peace billion in US assistance through deal, has hindered the start of the intra- Operation Cyclone. Afghan negotiations. Continuing violence In a statement issued on 14 July, NATO A UN’ mid-year report (1 Jan-30 June urged the Taliban to cease its violent 2020) on the protection of civilians in campaign and allow a peaceful solution Afghanistan detailed the continuing to the decades-long war after the violence against the Afghan civilian alliance adhered to its commitment to population. According to the UN report, reduce troop numbers. In early August, nearly 1,300 civilians have been killed President Ghani agreed to release the and about 2,200 others wounded in the last 400 Taliban prisoners, but in the Afghan conflict so far this year. It two weeks since, only 80 prisoners attributed 43% of the civilian casualties have been released. Thus, by late to the Taliban, 23% to Afghan forces, August the next steps of the peace 9% to the Islamic State and 3% to process—a cease-fire and direct international military forces. The negotiations between the Taliban and remainder were either undetermined or the Afghan government—continued to the result of crossfire. be delayed. New US Defense Department data Allegations of Russian kill-bounties shows that the United States has According to a New York Times report distributed approximately $2 million in in late June, a Russian military condolence payments to civilians in intelligence unit secretly offered Afghanistan over the last five years (as Afghan militants bounties to kill reported by The Washington Post). The coalition forces. US intelligence briefed data also includes outlays for “battle President Trump on the alleged Russian damage” and “hero” payments, which bounty programme in late March (a the military provides to families of claim Trump denies). Twenty US Afghan soldiers. After facing criticism soldiers were killed in Afghanistan in in 2018 for allegedly underestimating 2019, but it is unclear whether any of civilian casualties, the US military these deaths may be connected to this developed new policies seeking to alleged covert operation. better prevent and address civilian deaths (but see box below). After reviewing classified intelligence, Republican Senator Pat Toomey called US retaliation against the ICC for a Senate briefing on the reports. “If The International Criminal Court (ICC) it is concluded that Russia offered is investigating alleged war crimes and bounties to murder American soldiers, other abuses committed by US forces in a firm American response is required in Afghanistan. In retaliation, the United short order,” Toomey said in a States has threatened economic and statement. Anatoly Antonov, the legal actions against the ICC, leading to Russian Ambassador to the United criticism by two NATO allies. The States, claimed that the allegations are Netherlands said it was “very disturbed” completely false and were “poisoning by the US measures, while France the atmosphere of cooperation” described them as “a grave attack on between the United States and Russia the court and a further undermining of on establishing peace in Afghanistan. multilateralism”. During its own nine-year intervention in Afghanistan (Soviet–Afghan War, 25

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New research on civilian casualties Murtaza Hussain, More than 70 children from airstrikes in Afghanistan killed in just 10 airstrikes in Afghanistan, report finds, 3 June 2020 As the United States has increased its use of airstrikes in the war in Also see: Afghanistan civilian casualties have Afghanistan: Civilian Loss in the US Air War, reached record numbers. New research Civilian casualties investigated amid a by the Bureau of Investigative surging air campaign as US prepares for Journalism, published in partnership possible withdrawal from Afghanistan., Al Jazeera, 3 June 2020 with Al Jazeera, The Intercept and Bellingcat, reveals how the US military Bashar Deeb and Jess Purkiss, An airstrike, conducts its investigations when there a family destroyed and the months-long are allegations of civilian casualties, quest for answers, Wired, 3 June 2020 and what justice looks like for civilians Jessica Purkiss, The families paying the who lost loved ones to airstrikes. price for the war in Afghanistan, Bureau of Investigative Journalism, 3 June 2020 The US dropped more munitions on Afghanistan in 2019 than any other Jessica Purkiss and Bashar Deeb, Finding year in the past decade. The first half of the faces of Afghanistan's slaughtered 2019 marked the first time in 10 years civilians, Bureau of Investigative Journalism, 3 June 2020 that deaths caused by US and Afghan forces surpassed those by the Taliban, a development the UN attributed to With Delay in Afghan Peace Talks, a increased air attacks. Creeping Sense of ‘Siege’ Around Kabul, New York Times, 23 August 2020 The research focuses on just 10 airstrikes that took place between 2018 Afghanistan to Release Last Taliban Prisoners, Removing Final Hurdle to Talks, and 2019. One hundred and fifteen New York Times, 5 August 2020 civilians died in the 10 airstrikes; more than 70 of them were children. The As violence surges in Afghanistan, NATO Bureau crowdsourced information on warns Taliban attacks undermine faltering particular strikes, then worked with an peace process, Washington Examiner, 15 July 2020 Al Jazeera film crew who travelled to Afghanistan to meet some of the Nato calls for Taliban to end violence in survivors, confirming civilian casualties Afghanistan, The National, 15 July 2020 in some instances when the US North Atlantic Council statement on government had not admitted them. Afghanistan, NATO Press Release, 14 July 2020 Both the US and Afghan militaries have poor records of investigating civilian Must Read: Andrew Quilty, Afghanistan casualties from air attacks. The US Between Negotiations: How the Doha often disputes allegations of civilian Agreement Will Affect Intra-Afghan Peace, Lawfare, 5 July 2020 harm and does not routinely interview survivors or witnesses of these attacks. NATO Steps In Amid Reports Of COVID-19 Hitting Afghan Forces, VoA, 4 July 2020 Sometimes, when the US or Afghan militaries acknowledge civilian Taliban’s Violence ‘Unacceptable’: NATO SCR, Tolo News, 4 July 2020 casualties, they will give a condolence payment for their loss. But families told Republican lawmakers confirm intelligence the researchers what they really want reports on Russian operation to target U.S. are answers and justice. This important troops but say material needs further research sheds light on how civilian review, Washington Post, 30 June 2020 loss is investigated and remembered. NATO officials say they were briefed on Russian bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan — even though Trump claims he wasn't, Business Insider, 29 June 2020

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Afghanistan war: Russia denies paying State attacks in recent months, but militants to kill US troops, BBC News, 28 stressed that the alliance remains June 2020 committed to working with Iraq in the Russia denies report spy unit paid Taliban fight against international terrorism. to attack NATO forces, Al Jazeera, 27 June Detailed consultations about the NATO 2020 Mission are ongoing with the Iraqi

Head of international criminal court government. These are likely to have accuses US of acting unlawfully, The been made more complicated by an Guardian, 24 June 2020 escalation in Turkey’s border conflict with Kurdish groups in northern Iraq. Afghan Security Forces Suffer Bloodiest Week in 19 Years, VoA, 22 June 2020 While the Defence Ministers were meeting Turkey deployed special forces Jonathan Schroden, Will the United States in northern Iraq backed by air and Really Go to Zero Troops in Afghanistan? artillery support. Lawfare, 15 June 2020 Given the unpredictable duration of the NATO has enabled Afghan forces to fight terrorism themselves: NATO Chief, Khaama COVID-19 outbreak and the continuing Press, 9 June 2020 insecurity in Iraq, it is unclear when NATO will resume the mission, and if its NATO’s new SCR takes up role in promised expansion would still follow. Afghanistan at a critical juncture, Khaama Meanwhile, the US troop withdrawal Press, 1 June 2020 from Iraq continues with only about Ambassador Stefano Pontecorvo assumes 2,500 left. the role of the new NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, NATO News U.S.-led troops withdraw from Iraq's Taji Release, 1 June 2020 base, Reuters, 23 August 2020

Spain completes delivery of medical Iraq assistance to Iraq, NATO News Release, 13 August 2020 At the NATO Summit in Brussels in July 2018, the NATO Mission Iraq was Spain delivers critical medical aid to Iraq, NATO News Release, 27 July 2020 launched following a request from the Iraqi government. The new, non- Turkey delivers critical aid to Iraq, NATO combat training and advisory mission News Release, 1 July 2020 was established in Baghdad in October Coronavirus response: Poland delivers 2018. At their meeting in February medical aid to Iraq, NATO News Release, 17 2020, NATO Defence Ministers June 2020 reaffirmed their support to Iraq and Elliot Stewart, Admitting the Hard Reality of agreed to enhance NATO’s role. Due to US Influence in Iraq, Geopolitical Monitor, the security situation and the COVID-19 15 June 2020 health crisis in spring 2020, NATO Mission Iraq had to temporarily Kosovo suspend some activities and relocate personnel outside Iraq. However, the Two decades after the withdrawal of mission is now rebuilding its capacity in Serbian forces, Kosovo's security is still Baghdad and planning for NATO’s guaranteed by 4,000 NATO troops, future engagement. The planning is known as KFOR. Following a Kosovo conducted in close coordination and Specialist Prosecutor’s Office consultation with the Global Coalition indictment in June against Kosovo to Defeat ISIS/Daesh and the Iraqi President Hashim Thaçi for alleged war government. crimes, a US-led peace summit between

At the NATO Defence Ministers meeting Kosovo and Serbia was postponed. The in June, the NATO Secretary General prosecutor, who works as a part of acknowledged an increase in Islamic Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague, has accused Thaçi of war crimes

29 and crimes against humanity for his challenge to the US and NATO presence alleged involvement in persecution, near the Russian border. torture and over 100 murders of US Sixth Fleet commander Navy Vice political opponents and ethnic Admiral Lisa Franchetti said in a press minorities between 1998 and 2000. statement regarding the Arctic Trump's Kosovo peace summit postponed exercise: “In these challenging times, it amid war crime allegations, The Hill, 25 is more important than ever that we June 2020 maintain our steady drumbeat of

21 years of KFOR: continued contribution operations across the European theatre to peace and regional stability, NATO News while taking prudent measures to Release, 13 June 2020 protect the health of our force". "We remain committed to promoting regional security and stability, while Russia-NATO relations building trust and reinforcing a Relations between Russia and NATO foundation of Arctic readiness". have deteriorated to record post-Cold As for Russia’s written proposal for a War lows. Both sides have competing mutual de-escalation of military explanations for this. Within the activities, an unnamed NATO official alliance, there remain disagreements told Newsweek that the alliance about the nature of the Russian threat remains active in attempting to engage and how to respond to it. with Moscow diplomatically. "NATO On 1 June, the Russian military accused remains open to dialogue with Russia the US and its NATO allies of on military risk reduction and conducting “provocative” military drills transparency, which is why in February near the nation’s borders, while also we proposed to the Russian side to hold saying that it would not conduct major another meeting of the NATO-Russia military exercises near the borders with Council", the official said. NATO member countries this year, "Unfortunately, Russia has so far not Sergei Rudskoy, chief of the main shown any interest in a meeting. NATO operational department for Russia’s Allies also continue to call on Russia to General Staff, also said that NATO has follow existing transparency rules and stonewalled Russia’s written proposal to engage constructively in to scale down each other’s military modernizing the Vienna Document on activities. He said Russia has moved military activities", the official added. large-scale drills scheduled for Russian military officials have recently September, Kavkaz-2020, deeper increased the frequency and range of inside the country and is “ready to their submarine exercises in the adjust the locations of exercises on a Atlantic Ocean (as reported by the Wall parity basis” with NATO. He pointed to Street Journal). NATO officials and recent NATO exercises in the Arctic— analysts say this resurgence of Russian three US destroyers entered the Barents naval operations demonstrates Sea for the first time in three decades Moscow’s resolve to project power into and held missile defence exercises the Atlantic and could pose a strategic alongside UK warships—as well as threat to the US and its allies. increasing nuclear-capable strategic bomber flights near Russian borders David Axe, If Russia Invades Europe, NATO and US intelligence flights near Russian Could Sweep The Seas Of Russian Merchant Ships, Forbes, 26 August 2020 bases in Syria.

On 5 June, however, Russia announced Fighting Russia has become an existential the deployment of more troops to its necessity for NATO, if tensions are reduced alliance has no purpose – Russia FM Lavrov, western region, signalling a new RT, 21 August 2020

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Russia develops NATO-standard assault Ben Challis, Belarus beyond 2020: rifle, Defence Blog, 18 August 2020 Implications for Russia and the West, European Leadership Network, August Britain’s NATO-driven ’deterrence & 2020 dialogue’ policy towards Russia is 95% deterrence & 5% dialogue’ - Russian Russia to reinforce its borders in response ambassador to UK, RT, 9 August 2020 to NATO relocation, TASS, 22 July 2020

Major investments in infrastructure needed Current nature of NATO eliminates to deter Russia's incursion into Baltics - possibility of Russia’s membership, says NATO general, Baltic Times, 2 August 2020 senior diplomat, TASS, 22 July 2020

Powerful Russian ‘Ekranoplan’ Ground Russian Armed Forces: Capabilities, CRS In Effect Plane Makes Final Voyage, Forbes, 1 Focus, 30 June 2020 August 2020 NATO’s budget is 20 times Russia’s military spending, says envoy, TASS, 26 June 2020

Dmitri Trenin, Eugene Rumer and Maxim Starchak, Russia's New Nuclear Andrew S. Weiss (eds), Steady State: Strategy: Unanswered Questions, RUSI Russian Foreign Policy After Commentary, 26 June 2020

Coronavirus, Carnegie Moscow Centre, Moscow Believes US Could Resort to 8 July 2020 Violation of Russia-NATO Founding Act, Diplomat Says, Sputnik, 25 June 2020 Summary: The coronavirus pandemic has hastened the arrival of a new era of Roger McDermott, Russia’s Armed Forces bipolarity. These essays examine the Strengthen Western Military District, various implications of the pandemic Eurasia Daily Monitor, Volume: 17 Issue: 91, 24 June 2020 for Russia’s foreign relations.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Russia confirms readiness for de-escalation in relations with NATO, says senior Introduction: The Contest for The Post- diplomat, TASS, 23 June 2020 Pandemic World (Alexander Baunov) Bryan Macdonald, NATO slowly imploding Five Uneasy Pieces of the U.S.-Russian because it lacks a credible enemy: Serious Agenda (Eugene Rumer) people in Paris & Berlin know Russia isn’t a real threat, RT, 16 June 2020 Russia–U.S.: No Reset, Just Guardrails (Dmitri Trenin) Gustav Gressel, Russia’s nuclear deterrence principles: what they imply, and what they Will the Pandemic Increase Russia’s do not, ECFR Commentary, 12 June 2020 Economic Dependence on China? (Alexander Gabuev and Temur Umarov) Marek Menkiszak, Russia’s New Rhetorical Deterrence, RUSI Commentary, 10 June How the Pandemic Will Change EU-Russian 2020 Relations (Andrey Kortunov Nicu Popescu, Why a new Yalta wouldn’t Russia and Ukraine in the Age of end the malaise between the West and Coronavirus (Konstantin Skorkin) Russia, ECFR Commentary, 9 June 2020 Minsk and Moscow Fail to Unite Against Mark Episkopos, Russia’s S-400 is Common Foe (Artyom Shraibman) encroaching on NATO territory, National Ventilator Diplomacy in the Balkans (Maxim Interest, 9 June 2020 Samorukov) Peter Suciu, History Tells Us Why Russia Coronavirus in the Caucasus and Central Fears a NATO Invasion (Even If It Sounds Asia (Paul Stronski Crazy), National Interest, 9 June 2020

Russia-Saudi Roller Coaster: From a High David Axe, Before Donald Trump, Russia Five to a Price War (Marianna Belenkaya) Needed 60 Hours To Beat NATO—Now Moscow Could Win Much Faster, Forbes, 7 The Oil Price Crash: Will the Kremlin’s June 2020 Policies Change? (Tatiana Mitrova)

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Senior Russian diplomat highlights need to investigation into allegations of right- restore military contacts with NATO, TASS, wing activity. Kramp-Karrenbauer said 6 June 2020 then that the investigation had revealed Russia Sends More Troops West, Signaling the KSK was building a “wall of secrecy” New Challenge to U.S.-NATO Presence Near around itself with a “toxic leadership Borders, Newsweek, 5 June 2020 culture”.

Olga Oliker, New Document Consolidates Meanwhile in the UK, it emerged that Russia’s Nuclear Policy in One Place, 4 June the government withheld evidence 2020 from a court which suggested that SAS Pavel Felgenhauer, Moscow Clarifies Its soldiers had executed 33 civilians in Nuclear Deterrence Policy, Eurasia Daily Afghanistan in early 2011. The Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 80, 4 June 2020 Guardian reports that Defence Minister

Russia revamps its nuclear policy amid Ben Wallace has until autumn to explain simmering tensions with NATO, Euractiv, 3 why key emails and documents June 2020 revealing official concern about the

Russia Scales Down Military Drills Near string of killings were not previously NATO Borders in 2020 – Official, Moscow disclosed in a case relating to the Times, 2 June 2020 deaths of four Afghan men from one family in a night raid. Russian General Chafes at 'Provocative' NATO Drills, New York Times, 1 June 2020 Germany Dissolves Elite Army Unit Over

Far-right Activity, VoA, 1 August 2020 Gabriele Natalizia and Marco Valigi, From Reset to Restart: The US-Russia Cyclical Did UK Special Forces execute unarmed Relationship in the Post-Cold War Era, The civilians? BBC News, 1 August 2020 International Spectator, 2020 Thang Q. Tran, Increase NATO’s Ohannes Geukjian, Russian Hybrid Warfare. operational reach: Expanding the NATO Resurgence and Politicisation, Europe-Asia SOF network, Atlantic Council, 5 June 2020 Studies, Vol 72 no.5, 2020, pp. 918-920

C. Dale Walton, Putin’s world: Russia Space Policy against the west and the rest, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 39 no.4, 2020, pp. 403-405 In June 2019 a new policy or “a common

Tomáš Karásek, Between Pastiche and NATO framework” was agreed to Sampling: NATO’s Strategic Adaptation to “guide” the alliance’s approach to Russian Revisionism, Europe-Asia Studies, space. While the substance of the policy Vol. 72 No.6, 2020 remains secret, the NATO Secretary General argued that it was “not about

militarizing space”, but rather NATO Special Forces playing an important role “as a forum Special forces in Germany and the UK to share information, increase have been embroiled in controversy in interoperability, and ensure that our recent months. At the beginning of missions and operations can call on the August, Germany’s defence ministry support they need”. No further details officially disbanded a company of its emerged at the NATO Leaders’ Meeting Special Forces Command (KSK), in London in December 2019, although following reports that it had been space was declared as an operational exposed to far-right and neo-Nazi domain alongside land, air and sea. ideology. The move showed how deeply This allows space to be used for rooted right-wing extremism could be military operations during times of war. within the German army, some experts Benjamin Silverstein, NATO’S return to said. German Defence Minister space, War on the Rocks, 3 August 2020 Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer made the initial announcement of disbanding the Space Launch - NATO specialists in UK KSK’s 2nd Company on 1 July after an launch initiative for future space capabilities, DVIDS, 15 July 2020

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Security News from fort, but in June it was announced that another 90 soldiers would soon join NATO Member States: them with an eye to resuming the mission. Albania In June, a broad coalition of civil society NATO and Albania are assessing the organisations and concerned Albanian government’s proposal to individuals called on the Canadian modernize the Pasha Liman naval base government to stop its multibillion- in the Mediterranean Sea. Minister of dollar arms deal with Saudi Arabia. In Defense Olta Xhaçka and US the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ambassador Yuri Kim visited the base Canada lifted its moratorium on issuing in the Bay of Vlore (southern Albania) in arms exports for weapons destined for July, of which NATO and Albania are Saudi Arabia, days after endorsing the assessing the potential to modernize UN Secretary-General’s call for a global and transform it into a NATO ceasefire. Critics argue that Canadian representative project. arms exports to Saudi Arabia are not in line with legal commitments under the NATO Examining Plan to Revamp Albanian Arms Trade Treaty, Canada’s national Naval Base, Exit News, 11 July 2020 arms export policy and moves toward

adopting a feminist foreign policy. Belgium Canada is looking to establish its own After a complaint from a human rights fleet of armed drones that can conduct group, the Belgian Council of State has long-range surveillance and precision suspended arms export licences for air strikes. The programme is expected shipments to Saudi Arabia’s national to cost around CAD $1-5 billion and guard, as the contracts did not meet would enable Canada to join several the standard for “human rights in the NATO allies that already have their own end-user country and its respect for fleet of armed drones. international law”. But the Council Canada Wants Armed Drones in the Air by decided to not block shipments to the 2025, Vice News, 12 August 2020 Saudi royal guard, a separate unit, arguing that they were more focused Top NATO job coming open but Liberals are on “legitimate” internal security and silent on whether Gen. Vance's name will be bodyguard goals. submitted, The ChronicleHerald, 20 June 2020

Belgium suspends arms exports to Saudi 90 Canadian troops to leave for Ukraine as national guard, Al Jazeera, 7 August 2020 military looks to resume mission, CBC, 14 June 2020

Canada Canada doubles weapons sales to Saudi Arabia despite moratorium, The Guardian, Canada is deploying military trainers 9 June 2020 back to Ukraine as it looks to restart some of the many missions and exercises temporarily suspended or Czech Republic scaled back because of COVID-19. In June, following false allegations of a Canada first deployed around 200 Russian poisoning plot against the troops to Ukraine to train local forces in mayor of Prague, two Russian were the basics of soldiering in 2015, but invented by Russian diplomats were that mission and several others were expelled by the Czech prime minister. suspended in early April as COVID-19 forced countries around the world into Czechs expel two Russian diplomats over lockdown. A skeleton force of about 60 fake poisoning plot, The Guardian, 5 June service members was left to hold the 2020

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Michaela Dodge, U.S.-Czech ballistic with the West anywhere in the world missile defense cooperation: Lessons could trigger a rapid change in learned and way forward for others, Estonia’s threat situation, the report Comparative Strategy, vol. 39 no3, 2020, argues. The potential use of China’s pp.288-298 foreign investment for political purposes and the possible Denmark development of technological dependency are increasingly threats to Denmark will send up to 285 military Estonia’s security, the report adds, personnel to NATO's non-combat training operation in Iraq as it takes In July the United States delivered 92 over leadership of the mission training Raytheon Javelin anti-tank missiles to Iraqi security forces from Canada by the the Estonian Defence Forces. The end of 2020, it said in mid-June. "By missiles are funded through the US strengthening our contribution to the European Command’s Building Partner stabilization of Iraq we reduce the risk Capacity programme. of new refugee crises while we at the same time increase our guard against Press Release: Javelin Missile Delivery Augments Estonian Defensive Capabilities, the threat from terror groups like ISIL," Enhances NATO Interoperability, US foreign minister Jeppe Kofoed said in a Embassy in Estonia, 24 July 2020 statement. The Danish Parliament has also agreed to send a ship and a NATO's head of intelligence and security visits Estonia, ERR News, 6 July 2020 helicopter including up to 195 staff to a European-led naval mission in the NATO-funded facility ready to receive and Strait of Hormuz, through which about support Allied troops in Estonia, NATO News Release, 1 July 2020 a fifth of the world's oil passes, for a four-month period from August 2020. Estonia provides critical aid to Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Ukraine, Denmark agrees to send more troops to NATO News Release, 26 June 2020 Iraq's NATO training mission, WHTC.com, 11 June 2020 The Estonian Navy to participate in a large- scale NATO exercise, Estonian World, 6 June 2020 Estonia International Security and Estonia 2020, In June, the Estonian Navy participated Estonia Foreign Intelligence Service, 2020 in BALTOPS, a large-scale military training exercise in the Baltic Sea in France which altogether 19 NATO member states took part (see ‘Military Exercises’ France continued to decry Turkey's above). Estonia contributed 80 sailors "aggressive" intervention in the Libya and divers to the training, and the conflict as unacceptable, accusing its Estonian Navy minehunter, EML Sakala, fellow NATO member of violating a UN and the auxiliary ship, Wambola, joined arms embargo and sending half a the exercise. dozen ships to the war-torn country's coast (see Libya section above). In the fifth edition of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s annual In June, the French government report, International Security and repatriated 10 children of French Estonia, the main external threats to Jihadists, who were held in Kurdish led Estonia’s security remain the same, detention camps in Syria, according to namely Russia. However, the likelihood the New York Times. When the Islamic of a Russian military attack on Estonia State collapsed in Syria in March 2019, is rated as “low”, as Russia does not Kurdish forces established camps to want a military conflict with NATO, but hold surviving relatives of Islamic State the escalation of Russia’s confrontation combatants. Approximately 900

34 children from Western countries remain countries, including Belgium and Italy in the camps, as many Western nations (and according to US Secretary of refuse to bring home their citizens who Defence Mark Esper possibly in rotation have ties to the Islamic State. to Romania, the Baltic states and Poland), with 6,400 returning to the France-Turkey tensions mount after NATO United States. naval incident, Reuters, 7 July 2020 Germany is a longstanding hub for US France Withdraws from NATO Naval Mission: Turkish Alleged Actions as Cause, operations in the Middle East and SLDinfo, 3 July 2020 Africa. Currently, the US has five garrisons in Germany and a handful of France freezes role in NATO naval force US military communities have amid Turkey tensions, The Spokesman- developed around a few German towns, Review, 1 July 2020 in which many jobs are tied to the France suspends role in NATO naval bases. mission after Turkey tensions, Al Jazeera, 1 July 2020 The changes include an F-16 fighter squadron moving to Italy and an Public in France and Germany support a armoured unit that will return to the European military, security and defence policy, survey shows, University of Exeter, United States and start a rotational 30 June 2020 deployment in the Black Sea region. The US military’s European Command France presses allies for Nato censure of headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, Turkey over Mediterranean naval incident, will move to Mons, Belgium. The Africa The National, 25 June 2020 Command headquarters, also in Emmanuel Macron: 'Turkey is playing a Germany, will also probably move, dangerous game in Libya', Euro News, 23 although US officials did not name a June 2020 location. For further details see here.

Jean-Marie Collin, The flawed logic of the Mark Esper said the changes were part French “nuclear warning”, European Leadership Network Commentary, 15 June of an ongoing review of US troop 2020 presence around the world that was “accelerated” by Mr. Trump’s NATO to investigate France-Turkey announcement to cut forces in standoff in the Mediterranean, Al Monitor, Germany. He also confirmed that 18 June 2020 removing the troops from Germany will France’s call for NATO to stop ignoring the take “some time” to complete and cost “Turkey problem” further divides the “billions”. “Coordination, approval, alliance, InfoBRICS, 18 June 2020 funding and execution will take time,” NATO must deal with, not ignore Turkish European Command head Gen. Todd problem: French official, WKZO, 17 June Wolters said in a memo to the force on 2020 31 July. AFRICOM commander Gen.

France says Turkey conduct in Libya Stephen Townsend also issued a 'unacceptable', Arab News, 14 June 2020 statement the same day affirming the process is in its infancy, and decisions Meet Flight Lieutenant Quentin, a French fighter pilot protecting the Baltic skies, are months away. “It will likely take NATO News Release, 8 June 2020 several months to develop options, consider locations, and come to a decision,” on where the Stuttgart-based Germany and the US troop command will move, though “the withdrawal command has started the process”.

In late July, the Trump administration Criticism of the withdrawal announced plans to move 11,900 The partial withdrawal has been troops out of Germany, 5,600 of which criticized by officials and would relocate to other European parliamentarians in both the US and

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Europe, since the US presence in the European continent. (At the height Germany has long been regarded as the of the Cold War, the US military had bedrock of the US commitment to nearly 300,000 troops stationed in NATO. Senator Mitt Romney, Europe.)

Republican of Utah and a former A strategic decision or punishment presidential candidate, called the plan for Germany? a “grave error", while the move lacked President Trump revealed plans for the “a strategic underpinning” according to partial withdrawal from Germany in Atlantic Council distinguished fellow, June and he has frequently criticized Hans Binnendijk, and “could undercut a Germany and other NATO allies for not half decade long effort to prevent war spending 2% of their gross domestic by enhancing NATO’s deterrent posture product (GDP) on defence. On the 5 in the Baltic area”. Lieutenant General August Donald Trump renewed his Ben Hodges, a retired US army officer criticism of Germany accusing the and the former US commander in NATO ally of “making a fortune” off US Europe, said that the withdrawal was "a soldiers, of being "very delinquent" and gift to the Kremlin". being among NATO countries who The governors from the four German "took advantage" of the US by not states that host US troops sent a letter paying their share for defence. to more than a dozen US lawmakers, However, both Belgium and Italy spend pushing them to urge the President not a smaller percentage of their GDP on to scale back the troop presence in defence than Germany. Further, the Germany. “For decades, Americans and German government has paid more Germans have worked together to build than $1 billion over the past decade to and develop these unique and highly cover costs related to the stationing of capable structures,” the letter said. US troops in Germany, according to the “They provide the necessary foundation finance ministry in Berlin. Of that, for a partnership-based contribution to 648.5 million euros went into peace in Europe and the world, to which construction work. we all share a common commitment”. Trump also (again) condemned The net result: a rearranging of the Germany's decision to cooperate with furniture, with Poland the ‘winner’ Russia over the controversial Nord NATO Secretary General Jens Stream 2 gas pipeline. "We're supposed Stoltenberg welcomed the US move and to protect Germany from Russia. That's said Washington has been consulting fine. But Germany is paying Russia allies on the matter recently, although billions of dollars for energy," Trump the initial June announcement on the told Fox News. "What's that all about?" withdrawal did come without any prior The United States announced plans in discussion. Similarly, President of the June to expand sanctions on the Nord NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Attila Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia Mesterhazy, in a statement applauded and Germany. Germany's Foreign the reaffirmation that the proposed Ministry said the sanctions would redeployment “seeks to enhance "constitute a serious interference in deterrence of Russia, strengthen NATO European energy security and EU and reassure allies and that no moves sovereignty". will take place without continued engagement with Congress, and Germany wants a rethink on the 2% consultation with Allies”. of GDP defence spending commitment After the withdrawal there will still be There is still a conversation to be had 24,000 US forces in Germany—more on the relevance and efficacy of the 2% than in any other country except Japan of GDP guideline. In Germany, defence and South Korea—and over 51,000 on spending rose by 10% in 2019 to $49.3

36 billion—the largest defence budget Ralf Roloff, Germany’s EU Presidency 2020: increase among the world's top 15 The Security Dimension and EU-NATO states when it comes to military Cooperation, George C. Marshall Center, July 2020, Number 015 expenditures. Moreover, owing to its high GDP, Germany contributes more Who are the real winners and losers of the to defence spending with less than 1.5 US troop withdrawal from Germany? Euro percent than most of the other allies. News, 31 July 2020

And if the two percent target were met, NATO PA President’s statement on the U.S. Germany’s defence budget would be European Command Force Posture review, higher than Russia’s ($65.1bn in 2019). NATO PA News Release, 30 July 2020

German Defence Minister Annegret What Will It Take to Move 12,000 Troops Kramp-Karrenbauer is arguing for a from Germany? Closures, Time and Lots of Money, Military.com, 30 July 2020 new method of measuring Berlin's contributions to NATO, suggesting the US to Bring 6,400 Troops Home From country could shoulder 10% of alliance Germany, Move 5,600 More, New York total “planning targets”. According to Times, 29 July 2020

German officials this would more U.S. Will Cut 12,000 Forces in Germany, accurately capture Germany’s efforts New York Times, 29 July 2020 across the categories “cash, capabilities and commitments” than the current Zdeněk Kříž , Jana Urbanovská & Stanislava defence-spending objective of 2% of Brajerčíková, Refugees, Energiewende and NATO deterrence: limits of German GDP. leadership in Central Europe, European Finally, there is also a larger Security, July 2020 conversation to be had about why, 75 years after V-E Day, the United States The United States has 34,500 troops in still has tens of thousands of soldiers Germany today. President Trump says on European soil. he has given the order to reduce that to 25,000 soon. If the original purpose of Secretary General discusses security challenges with Chancellor Merkel in Berlin, NATO was to keep the Americans in NATO News Release, 27 August 2020 western Europe, keep the Russians out of western Europe, and keep the Victor Davis Hanson, Goodbye — Sort of — Germans down in western Europe, to Germany?, National Review, 20 August 25,000 would still accomplish the first 2020 two. (The Germans are off the floor, Germany Pushes to End 2 Percent GDP and have been since, oh, about 1950.) Commitment to NATO, Washington Free Beacon, 7 August 2020 Same old story. Perhaps a different ending? Arkansas Democrat Gazette, Ashley Burrell, Donald Trump Is Turning 23 July 2020 His Back On America’s European Allies By Taking Troops Out of Germany, National Interest, 5 August 2020 US troop withdrawal a cause for NATO concern, German defense minister says, Donald Trump accuses Germany of 'making Deutsche Welle, 22 July 2020 a fortune' off US soldiers, Deutsche Welle,5 August 2020 German states appeal to US Congress not to withdraw troops, Al Jazeera, 19 July 2020 Christopher Layne, Trump's plan to pull troops from Germany doesn't address a risk Maximilian Terhalle, Keeping the NATO has faced since the start of the Cold Americans In, the Russians Out and the War, Business Insider, 1 August 2020 Chinese in Check: Germany’s Future Strategy, RUSI Commentary, 21 July 2020 Mark Esper, US military force structure changes strengthens NATO, improves Germany takes over the Chairmanship of deterrence against Russia, The Hill, 31 July the National Reserve Forces Committee, 2020 NATO News Release, 15 July 2020

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Defense Minister Says U.S. Troop Moves German lawmakers criticize reported US From Germany Tied to Future NATO troop withdrawal plan, CTpost, 7 June 2020 Commitments, USNI News, 9 July 2020 Trump Plans to Withdraw Some U.S. Troops Germany spent over $1B to cover costs From Germany, a Key NATO Ally, New York linked to US troops, KOB, 6 July 2020 Times, 5 June 2020

Germany Disbands Special Forces Group Donald Trump orders 9,500 US troops to Tainted by Far-Right Extremists, New York leave Germany, The Guardian, 6 June 2020 Times, 1 July 2020

Germany to dissolve special forces unit Greece over far-right links, Reuters, 30 June 2020 Greece is at loggerheads with Turkey America’s relationship with Germany may after Athens signed a deal with Egypt never be the same again, Berlin warns, CNBC, 29 June 2020 designating an exclusive economic zone between the two countries in the Pentagon to give Trump options to reduce eastern Mediterranean Sea. The US troops in Germany, The Local.de, 28 agreement was denounced by Turkey, June 2020 which signed a competing deal with German defense minister: Any U.S. troop Libya last year. It is likely that there are reductions in Europe should be coordinated large oil and gas reserves under the with NATO, Washington Times, 24 June seabed. For further details see the 2020 Libya section above.

NATO chief Stoltenberg: World needs more Greece is proceeding with plans to German leadership, Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2020 extend a cement and barbed-wire fence that it set up in 2012 along its northern Stoltenberg: US presence in Europe is border with Turkey to prevent migrants important for NATO, Deutsche Welle, 23 from entering the country, the June 2020 government said in August. John Cookson, Troop reduction in Germany should spark a conversation about NATO's At the Informal Meeting of the EU future, The Hill, 22 June 2020 Defence Ministers in August, developments in the Eastern US ‘will consult NATO’ on Germany troop Mediterranean were discussed, with the plan: Stoltenberg, AFP, 18 June 2020 Greek Defence Minister informing his No details yet on Trump's Germany pullout, colleagues of the “the provocative NATO chief says, Reuters, 18 June 2020 actions by Turkey”. Panagiotopoulos

Nato chief: no firm plan agreed for pulling also told the NATO Secretary General US troops from Germany, The Guardian, 16 that the alliance’s equal treatment of June 2020 Greece and Turkey: “NATO’s policy of

US troop pull-out from Germany rattles equal distances is detrimental to our transatlantic relationship, Army country, but also to the cohesion of the Technology, 10 June 2020 alliance, and therefore is not acceptable”. Hans Binnendijk, The folly of a NATO troop withdrawal decision, Defense News, 9 June Greek DM tells NATO that Greece’s equal 2020 standing with Turkey is “not acceptable”,

Greek City Times, 26 August 2020 Trump Troop Pullout Would Still Leave Hefty U.S. Footprint in Europe, New York Greek defense minister stresses dangers of Times, 8 June 2020 equal distances policy to NATO chief,

Ekathimerini, 26 August 2020 German foreign minister says Berlin and Washington remain NATO partners but Greece to extend fence on land border with allows that the U.S. relationship is now Turkey to deter migrants, Reuters, 24 ‘complicated’, Associated Press, 8 June August 2020 2020

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Greece accuses Turkey of 'threatening peace' in the Mediterranean, Deutsche Today, the alliance faces a growing and Welle, 10 August 2020 pernicious threat: the rise of illiberal nationalism within its ranks. This Greece looks to NATO to play its role with internal threat is one that an alliance regard to Turkey, Ekathimerini, 7 August 2020 built on cooperation of individual nation-states and premised on states Europe warns Turkey against natural gas working together is ill-suited to mission near Greece, Deutsche Welle, 24 address. For instance, NATO has been July 2020 encouraging member states to devote Three Thousand US Army Soldiers Arrive in more resources to national defense. Greece for NATO Exercise, Greek Reporter, However, this begs the question of 22 July 2020 whether the alliance should encourage Greece says ‘illegal' actions of Turkey an autocratic Hungary to massively threaten NATO cohesion, Ekathimerini, 22 increase its defense spending when it July 2020 could use its military capabilities to

George Tzogopoulos, Striving for a more threaten its neighbors. With active role in NATO, Ekathimerini, 9 July Turkey stoking tension with Greece in 2020 the eastern Mediterranean, leading to fears of conflict between two NATO members, the internal threat of Hungary nationalism to NATO’s cohesion is Hungary signed a declaration of intent clear. It is time for the NATO alliance to in August to purchase air defence get serious about the threat posed by missiles from the United States for rising nationalism and democratic around $1 billion. The US Embassy backsliding among its member states. described the deal as Hungary's Max Bergmann and Siena Cicarelli, Why "largest-ever defence procurement Hungary’s Democratic Backsliding Should from the United States. According to Prompt NATO To Act, Center for American the Hungarian Defence Ministry, it Progress, 17 August 2020 includes both air-to-air and land-to-air missiles. In revealing his government's plans to secure US-made weapons, Iceland Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said last year that "the construction of Unauthorised Russian aircraft entered the modern Hungarian army is NATO airspace near Iceland, according happening now". The Orban to the Icelandic Coast Guard. Italian government has increased annual aircraft stationed in Iceland flew from defence spending since around 2015 Keflavík Airport on 3 July to meet the following deep cuts in the years Russian planes. following the 2008 financial crisis. Russian Long-Range Bombers Spotted Within NATO Airspace Near Iceland, The Hungary to buy air defense missiles from Reykjavik Grapevine, 6 July 2020 US for $1 billion, KOB, 12 August 2020 Submarines Arrive in Iceland for NATO Hungary is a major contributor to NATO's Exercises, Iceland Review, 25 June 2020 collective security, says the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, NATO News Italy's F-35s are back in Iceland for another Release, 13 July 2020 NATO air-policing mission, Business Insider, 7 June 2020 Szijjártó: Hungary wants to resolve language issues soon to unblock Ukraine- NATO Airmen to go into 4-Week Quarantine NATO Commission, UNIAN, 25 June 2020 Before Patrols Begin, Reykjavik Grapevine, 3 June 2020

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Italy such as M240H machine guns and missile warning systems, is worth $380 Speaking to reporters during a ‘virtual’ million. media event hosted by NATO, Colonel Michele Cesario of the Italian Air Force Lithuania to buy US helicopters to bolster said that the six F-35A aircraft that have NATO capabilities in Baltics, Stars and been flying the Icelandic Air Policing Stripes, 7 July 2020 mission since early to mid-June have proved to be “extremely reliable” in the quick reaction alert role. Montenegro

Italy demonstrates F-35 air defender NATO Secretary General Jens credentials on NATO ops, Jane’s 9 July 2020 Stoltenberg welcomed President of Montenegro Milo Đukanović at NATO Teresa Coratella, Crisis communication: Headquarters on 9 June and Italy, the coronavirus, and European solidarity, ECFR Commentary, 16 June 2020 congratulated him on the anniversary of his country’s accession to the alliance three years ago. Latvia Secretary General congratulates the The complex dynamics of today’s President of Montenegro on third security environment call for a deep- anniversary of accession to NATO, NATO rooted comprehension of existing News Release, 9 June 2020 threats and robust preparation to ensure an effective response when a Netherlands crisis occurs. Hence, the concept of comprehensive defence is seen by Admiral Rob Bauer is in the race for the many NATO states as the appropriate position of Chairman of the NATO response to the evolving number of Military Committee. The Netherlands security threats and challenges. Latvia government has formally nominated made its approach on comprehensive Bauer for the NATO position. Should he defence a policy priority in 2019. As a be elected, he will hand over his current part of these efforts, the Ministry of position of Chief of Defence to his Defence of Latvia, in a close successor in the summer of 2021. cooperation with civil services and NGOs, published guidelines in June Netherlands Chief of Defence standing for entitled ‘72 hours: What to do in case Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Netherlands MoD News, 21 August 2020 of crisis’. This handbook covers a broad range of crises, from natural or man- The Netherlands likely to scrap NATO made disasters to military threats and spending target, Euractiv, 3 June 2020 war. Maaike Beenes, US could unilaterally decide

Artis Pabriks, How Latvia Accomplishes to use nukes from Volkel airbase, Comprehensive Defence, RUSI nonukes.nl, 30 May 2020

Commentary, 25 June 2020

Norway

Lithuania NATO has concluded a historical

The United States plans to sell six UH- ordnance disposal operation along the 60 Black Hawk helicopters to Lithuania north coast of Norway, making them to boost allied quick response safer for fishermen, merchant capabilities in a region regarded by shipping, underwater operations and some security analysts as one of civilian installations. The operation, NATO’s most vulnerable. The deal, conducted between 4 and 12 August which will also include a full stock of identified and disposed of several related Black Hawk gear and weaponry mines from World War II.

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NATO ships clear historic ordnance in the Alliance will carry out its collective waters of northern Norway, NATO News defence and other missions by Release, 20 August 2020 ensuring the necessary interoperability, NATO's Defence Plans Against Russia integration, and capability for Outdated, Norwegian Researcher Warns, reinforcement rather than by additional Sputnik, 22 July 2020 permanent stationing of substantial combat forces”. 'NATO Roulette': Norwegian Town 'Forced' to Receive Allied Nuclear Submarines Accordingly, the enhanced NATO Against Its Will, Sputnik, 28 May 2020 presence in Eastern Europe has been Forced to receive nuclear submarines at referred to as “continuous” but municipal port in Tromsø, NRK, 27 May rotational. Proponents of extended 2020 (in Norwegian) permanent basing assert that the

“current security environment” has Poland changed considerably since 1997, largely due to Russian activities, and On 3 August the United States signed that NATO should therefore no longer an "enhanced defence cooperation be constrained by the NATO-Russia agreement" with Poland to gradually Founding Act. increase US troop levels by 1,000 rotational personnel (as part of NATO deploys AWACS aircraft to Poland, Defence Blog, 22 August 2020 reorganisation of US troop deployments that will see reductions in NATO E-3A Sentry AWACS Platform Germany, as discussed above). This Operating out Of Krakow, Supporting was agreed in principle in June 2019 Aviation Detachment 20-4, The Aviationist, and is in addition to the 4,500 US 22 August 2020 troops already in Poland on a rotational Pompeo signs deal to redeploy troops from basis. Germany to Poland, BBC News, 15 August 2020 The increase in troops levels comes with other military infrastructure U.S. commitment to Poland’s and NATO’s investments Poland has agreed to fund. security is ironclad - US ambassador, First News, 14 August 2020 Poland’s defence minister said that “we will have an American command in 5,500 US Troops to be Stationed in Poland, Poland. This command will manage the SOFREP, 8 August 2020 troops deployed along NATO’s eastern U.S. Military Presence in Poland, flank”. Under the agreement, a division Congressional Research Service, 4 August command will be housed at Poznań, 2020 while a training centre will be located at Poland Agrees To Pay Almost All Costs of Drawsko Pomorskie, a frequent host of US Troop Presence, Breaking Defense, 3 multinational NATO exercises. There August 2020 will also be an Air Force logistics hub, a headquarters for a rotational Combat The US is sending 1,000 troops to Poland Aviation Brigade, two separate special to establish a permanent military base, Task and Purpose, 31 July 2020 ops facilities, and another base near the German border that will house an Poland Wraps Deal For Permanent US Armoured Brigade Combat Team. Troops, Drones, Special Ops, Breaking Defense, 31 July 2020 It is unclear whether these additional US forces will be permanently stationed US corps command in Poland to play vital role on NATO's eastern flank, The First in Poland. If they are it would likely News, 31 July 2020 violate the terms of the 1997 NATO- Russia Founding Act, which states: MoD recommends chief of general staff to “NATO reiterates that in the current and lead NATO Military Committee, The First foreseeable security environment, the News, 1 July 2020

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Poland provides medical aid to Georgia, Initiative, which was initiated in June Armenia and Azerbaijan to tackle Global 2014, shortly after Russia annexed Pandemic, NATO News Release, 29 June Crimea. The US Air Force has requested 2020 major upgrades at the base, including GMF Experts, Transatlantic Take 360: dangerous cargo landing pads, more Poland’s Turbulent and Consequential parking aprons to supporting Presidential Election, GMF, 26 June 2020 additional tactical fighter aircraft

1,000 more U.S. troops to Poland as Trump squadron rotations, fuel storage and a and Duda discuss NATO’s eastern flank, depot to support a deployable air base Military Times, 24 June 2020 system. “Campia Turzii Air Base is one

Lukasz Janulewicz, Poland's New National of the primary sources for United States Security Strategy: The Potential for Regional European Command and its Service Leadership, Cooperation and Cohesion on Components’ ability to respond to an NATO's Eastern Flank, RUSI Commentary, evolving European security 23 June 2020 environment,” the Air Force said in its

Poland and allies conduct military exercises 2021 budget request. near bottleneck with Lithuania, Poland In, Esper says some U.S. troops withdrawn 22 June 2020 from Germany could go to Romania, Inside Polish, NATO generals discuss defence Defense, 5 August 2020 capabilities, The First News, 22 June 2020 Air Force wants to turn Soviet-era base in Dan Goure, The F-35 Will Give Poland A Romania into NATO Black Sea hub, Stars More Advanced Air Force Than Some Major and Stripes, 9 July 2020

NATO Allies, National Interest, 20 June Former commander of U.S. Army in Europe 2020 warns Russia may invade Romania to test Poland seeks support of allies for more US NATO, Romania-Insider, 15 June 2020 troops in Poland – PM, The First News, 14

June 2020 Turkey NATO functioning efficiently despite pandemic – president, The First News, 8 A more aggressive, nationalist and June 2020 religious Turkey is increasingly at odds with its Western allies over Libya, Syria, Polish PM would welcome US troops pulled out from Germany, The First News, 6 June Iraq, Russia and the energy resources 2020 of the eastern Mediterranean (see above). Turkey’s tilt towards Coronavirus response: essential supplies authoritarianism and coercive airlifted to Poland, NATO News Release, 3 diplomacy after 17 years with President June 2020 Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the helm has also unsettled other NATO members. Romania Tony Lawrence, NATO Will Suffer as Allies An airfield in central Romania could Quarrel in the Eastern Mediterranean, become a hub for US Air Force International Centre for Defence and operations in southeastern Europe, Security, 20 August 2020 where the Pentagon is seeking added NATO Secretary General discusses eastern fighter plane rotations as part of a Mediterranean, Libya with Foreign Minister mission to deter Russia. The US of Turkey, NATO News Release, 19 August National Defense Authorization Act for 2020

2021, which is working its way through Şaban Kardaş, Understanding Turkey’s Congress, includes $130.5 million to Coercive Diplomacy, On Turkey, GMF, 13 renovate Campia Turzii Air Base in what August 2020 would be the biggest overseas military construction project under the Congress is quietly blocking arms sales to Pentagon’s European Deterrence Turkey, WRAL, 12 August 2020

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Barçin Yinanç, Challenging Turkey’s NATO Abdullah Bozkurt, Turkish spy agency MIT loyalty through Libya, Hurriyet Daily News, surveilled critics in Canada, a NATO ally, 6 August 2020 Nordic Monitor, 19 July 2020

Mark Leonard, The other Putin on Europe’s COVID-19: Osman Askin Bak on civil doorstep, ECFR Commentary, 4 August preparedness, resilience, and Alliance 2020 solidarity and unity to mitigate future outbreaks, NATO PA News Release, 17 July Can Kasapoglu, Can the Turkish Military’s 2020 Fight Against the Pandemic Set an Example for NATO? Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: Turkish S-400s complicating Nato 17 Issue: 114, 4 August 2020 relations, says US army secretary, The National, 15 July 2020

Turkey—increasingly assertive, John Spacapan, Conventional wisdom says ambitious and authoritarian—has Turkey won’t go nuclear. That might be become “the elephant in the room” for wrong, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 7 NATO, European diplomats say. But it is July 2020 a matter, they say, that few want to Abdullah Bozkurt, Turkish neo-nationalist, discuss. A NATO member since 1952, pro-Iran figure led the purge in NATO’s Turkey is too big, powerful and second largest army, Nordic Monitor, 6 July strategically important—it is the 2020 crossroads of Europe and Asia—to Abdullah Bozkurt, NATO officers deployed allow an open confrontation, alliance to a Turkish base entrapped in sex, officials suggest. blackmail schemes, Nordic Monitor, 4 July 2020 Turkey has dismissed any criticism of its behavior as unjustified. But some Former Amnesty Turkey leaders convicted NATO ambassadors believe that Turkey on terror charges, The Guardian, 3 July 2020 now represents an open challenge to the group’s democratic values and its Ian Lesser, U.S.-Turkish Relations in a Time collective defense. of Shocks, GMF Blog, 2 July 2020

Steve Erlanger, Turkish Aggression Is Turkey withdraws veto on NATO defense NATO’s ‘Elephant in the Room’, New York plan for Poland, Baltics, Daily Sabah, 30 Times, 3 August 2020 June 2020

Burhanettin Duran, Macron's damage to Patrick Chevallereau, The Worm is in the NATO and EU, Daily Sabah, 27 June 2020 Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO, RUSI Commentary, 31 July 2020 Serkan Demirtaş, What cards does France have against Turkey? Hurriyet Daily News, Defense Minister Akar: Turkey, NATO 27 June 2020 central to each other's security, Daily Sabah, 29 July 2020 Samuel Ramani, Turkey’s Military Intervention in Libya: A Surprise Triumph Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Turkey and Europe: for Erdogan, RUSI Newsbrief, 26 June 2020 Growing tensions and a hot summer in the Mediterranean, ECFR Commentary, 23 July NATO allies say Turkey still blocking 2020 defence plans for Poland, Baltics, New Europe, 18 June 2020 John Saleh, Turkey’s Authoritarian Policy on NATO Principles, Modern Diplomacy, 22 Turkey sends special forces into northern July 2020 Iraq, Al Jazeera, 17 June 2020

'Maybe I'm Not As Safe As Before': Turkish Turkey flexes muscle in Mediterranean Admiral Seeking Asylum In U.S. Speaks Out, while EU tries to de-escalate tensions, The NPR, 22 July 2020 Arab Weekly, 13 June 2020

Eric Zuesse, How NATO-Member Turkey Turkey delivers critical medical aid to Reverted Back to Being an Islamic Afghanistan in response to global Dictatorship, Modern Diplomacy, 20 July pandemic, NATO News Release, 12 June 2020 2020

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Turkey and the West: Keep the Flame announced that it will resume the Burning, GMF Policy Paper, 8 June 2020 granting of new licences for arms sales

Mustafa Aydın, The Long View on Turkish- to Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Russian Rivalry and Cooperation, GMF On coalition that is involved in the armed Turkey, No.5, June 2020 conflict in Yemen. In June 2019, the UK

Court of Appeal ruled that the United Kingdom government acted unlawfully when it licensed the sale of UK-made arms to Britain is running secret missions Saudi forces for use in Yemen without involving armed drones previously making an assessment as to whether or used to target and kill terrorist not past incidents amounted to suspects in Iraq and Syria, according to breaches of international law. Just a few a report in the Guardian in June. The UK days later, on 13 July, the UK Ministry Ministry of Defence is refusing to reveal of Defence revealed that it registered the nature or location of the operation more than 500 Saudi air raids in involving RAF Reapers, leading to calls Yemen, in possible breach of for greater parliamentary oversight of international law. Britain’s armed drone programme. It is thought that the secret missions could Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First be taking place in Syria or Iraq but Minister has reiterated her outside the remit of Operation Shader, government's opposition to nuclear which targets Isis in Iraq and Syria. A weapons and its support for the Treaty second theory is that the drones are on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. supporting Royal Navy operations This was affirmed in the First Minister’s monitoring shipping in the Strait of response to a letter from Setsuko Hormuz. A third possibility is that they Thurlow, who at the age of 13 survived are operating in the Sahel region of the US nuclear attack on Hiroshima. In Africa. her reply, Sturgeon said, “I was greatly encouraged that 122 countries voted Also in June, the Scottish Parliament for the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of agreed to suspend exports of riot gear, Nuclear Weapons and like you I have tear gas and rubber bullets to the called on the UK Government to sign United States in light of police brutality and ratify the Treaty”. towards Black Lives Matter protests. In late July, however, the UK government Must Read: Frank Ledwidge, Proposals by approved more tear gas sales to US the UK government will effectively sanction policing despite a UN warning over war crimes by British troops, 13 August 2020 continuing violence. Due to the Black Lives Matter demonstrations, the UK Scottish First Minister Confirms Rejection government had made a review—which of Nuclear Weapons and Support for the is not publicly available—of new sales Nuclear Ban Treaty, ICAN, 3 August 2020 of those items to the United States. The UK government gives green light to more review concluded that the violence did tear gas sales to US police despite UN not amount to “internal repression”. warning over violence, The Independent, 29 July 2020 In July, the British government imposed new sanctions on people from Russia, Nick Witney, A country under the influence: Saudi Arabia and Myanmar for human Russian interference in British politics, ECFR Commentary, 23 July 2020 rights abuses. Dominic Raab, the UK foreign secretary, said that the move Anna Stavriankis, ‘Isolated incidents’: The was part of a “dynamic new vision for a legal absurdity of UK arms sales for Saudi truly global Britain”, in which the post- war in Yemen, Middle East Eye, 23 July 2020

Brexit UK will stand as “an even The United Kingdom delivers field hospital stronger force for good in the world”. to West Africa following UN global call for However, on 7 July, the UK government support, NATO News Release, 23 July 2020

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Britain, Charting Its Own Course on Human peaceful protesters near the White Rights, Imposes New Sanctions, New York House. Times, 6 July 2020 In June, President Trump signed an Jack Watling, By Parity and Presence: executive order authorizing expanded Deterring Russia with Conventional Land visa sanctions and introduced new Forces, Occasional Paper Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security economic sanctions against Studies, July 2020 International Criminal Court (ICC) officials in response to ongoing ICC Mark Sedwill promised shot at Nato top job, investigations into alleged US war The Week, 30 June 2020 crimes in Afghanistan. Peter Ricketts, Speaking Truth to Power: The Problem with Prime Minister Johnson’s Former US officials say that in 2018, New National Security Adviser, RUSI President Trump authorized the Central Commentary, 30 June 2020 Intelligence Agency (CIA) to execute several clandestine cyber operations The United Kingdom flies medical targeting Iran and other countries, equipment to West Africa following UN call for support, NATO News Release, 27 June according to Yahoo News. One official 2020 said the authorization, called a “presidential finding”, was “very Malcolm Chalmers, Farewell Foreign and aggressive” and “gave the agency very Commonwealth Office, Welcome Foreign, specific authorities to really take the Commonwealth and Development Office, RUSI Commentary, 16 June 2020 fight offensively to a handful of adversarial countries” such as Russia, Must Read: Paul Rogers, Writing on the China and North Korea. The CIA has Wall? The UK and the Early Warning Signs of reportedly conducted at least 12 COVID-19, Oxford Research Group, 15 June operations under this finding 2020

Scottish Parliament votes for immediate The July report from the UN special suspension of tear gas, rubber bullet and rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary riot shield exports to US, The Independent, or arbitrary executions calls the January 11 June 2020 2020 US drone strike, that killed Iranian

general Qassem Soleimani and nine Royal Navy frigate joins Nato allies on other people, a violation of BALTOPS exercise, Naval Technology, 9 international law. The report calls for June 2020 accountability for targeted killings by Britain to resume sale of arms to Saudi armed drones and for greater Arabia despite Yemen fears, The Guardian, regulation of the weapons. It says the 7 June 2020 drone strike violated the UN Charter.

Ministers refuse to reveal target of new RAF The US rejected the report, calling the killer drone missions, The Guardian, 6 June UN expert’s conclusions “spurious,” 2020 and continues to defend the operation.

A survey conducted by the Programme United States for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland found that there is The Trump administration’s response considerable bipartisan agreement on to the Black Lives Matter protests and nuclear weapons policy. The the coronavirus pandemic have been Programme, which surveyed nearly the dominant security narratives in the 86,000 Americans over the past five United States in the past three months. years, found that 56% of Republicans In June, for example, retired senior and 73% of Democrats would support military leaders condemned their cutting a modest US $2 billion from the successors in the Trump administration annual nuclear weapons budget. for ordering military units to attack Overwhelming majorities in both parties also supported continuing to

45 have nuclear arms control treaties with Frank Rose, The U.S. Defense Space Russia, renewing the New Strategic Strategy Works on Paper, but Will it be Implemented? Lawfare, 14 July 2020 Arms Reduction Treaty before it expires in February, and continuing to abide by Danny Sjursen, Undercover Patriots: a moratorium on explosive nuclear Trump, Tulsa, and the Rise of Military tests. Dissent, TomDispatch, 9 July 2020

US bombers to overfly all 30 NATO Allies in U.S. rejects UN expert report calling Qasem a single day, NATO News Release, 28 Soleimani killing ‘unlawful’, Global News, 9 August 2020 July 2020

Michael T. Klare, Robot Generals: Will They William D. Hartung, Police, Prisons, and the Make Better Decisions Than Humans -- Or Pentagon: Defunding America’s Wars at Worse? TomDispatch, 25 August 2020 Home and Abroad, TomDispatch, 7 July 2020 Bob Dreyfuss, October Surprise: Will War with Iran Be Trump’s Election Eve Shocker? Alex Soros, A Biden victory could reset TomDispatch, 11 August 2020 transatlantic relations, ECFR Commentary, 6 July 2020 Max Bergmann and James Lamond, Why Trump's Troop Withdrawal from Germany Is Michael Carpenter, Why is Trump Turning a Only the Beginning, National Interest, 8 Blind Eye to Russia’s Covert Warfare? Just August 2020 Security, 3 July 2020

Major Report Shows Nearly 150 Issues on Rebecca Gordon, Fear of Falling: Can Which Majorities of Republicans & Making Black Lives Matter Rescue a Failing Democrats Agree, Program for Public State? TomDispatch.com, 30 June 2020 Consultation, University of Maryland, 7 August 2020 The US is more alone than ever, just at the moment the world needs its leadership, Ted Galen Carpenter, Trump’s Latest CNN, 28 June 2020 Betrayal of Foreign Policy Realism, CATO Institute, 7 August 2020 Must Read: Mandy Smithberger, Covid-19 Means Good Times for the Pentagon: Or Heather Conley and Kathleen Hicks, How to Vaccinate the Military-Industrial Pentagon action to withdraw from Germany Complex, TomDispatch, 28 June 2020 benefits our adversaries, The Hill, 4 August 2020 Andrew Bacevich, Martin Luther King’s Giant Triplets: Racism, Yes, But What About Andrea Mazzarino, The Military Is Sick: A Militarism and Materialism? TomDispatch, Navy Spouse’s Take on Why We’re Not 23 June 2020 Getting Better, TomDispatch, 4 August 2020 David Wright, William D. Hartung and Lisbeth Gronlund, Rethinking Land-Based Lionel Vairon, The U.S.-sickness of NATO, Nuclear Missiles: Sensible Risk-Reduction CGTN, 1 August 2020 Practices for US ICBMs, Union of Concerned

William J. Astore, Killing Democracy in Scientists, June 2020

America: The Military-Industrial Complex as a Cytokine Storm, TomDispatch, 26 July Obsolete secrecy procedures and 2020 growing political abuse have left the

Lindsay Koshgarian and Ashik Siddique, national security classification system Ten Better Uses for Ten Percent of the in a state of disarray and dysfunction.

Pentagon Budget, Institute for Policy Steven Aftergood, Crisis of Credibility in Studies, 20 July 2020 Secrecy Policy, Federation of American Michael T. Klare, The Pentagon Confronts Scientists, 22 June 2020 the Pandemic: Or How to Make War, American-Style, Possible Again, Tom Biden Predicts ‘There Will Be No NATO’ If Dispatch, 19 July 2020 Trump Wins Reelection, Forbes, 22 June Secret Trump order gives CIA more powers 2020 to launch cyberattacks, Yahoo News, 15 July 2020

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Must Read: Andrea Mazzarino, The War David Cortright, The Trump administration Zone Is America: A Military Spouse’s thinks it can win an arms race. Time for a Perspective on Racism and Armed Violence history lesson, Bulletin of the Atomic in the United States, TomDispatch, 21 June Scientists, 5 June 2020Sara Z. 2020 Kutchesfahani, Trump apparently wants a nuclear test. It could be bad for your health,

“Some 43 percent of the 1.3 million Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 5 June 2020 men and women on active duty in the United States military are people of Rachel Bronson, What the protests tell us: color. But the people making crucial Invest in social equity, not nuclear decisions, such as how to respond to weapons, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 3 June 2020 the coronavirus crisis and how many troops to send to Afghanistan or Syria, Former Commanders Fault Trump’s Use of are almost entirely white and male. Troops Against Protesters, New York Times, 2 June 2020 Of the 41 most senior commanders in the military — those with four-star rank Hall Gardner, Pandemic Pressure: The in the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines Coronavirus Is Antagonizing America’s Relationships, National Interest, 1 June and Coast Guard — only two are black: 2020 Gen. Michael X. Garrett, who leads the

Army’s Forces Command, and Gen.

Charles Q. Brown Jr, the commander of Pacific Air Forces.” IDEAS, FEEDBACK, SUGGESTIONS? Helene Cooper, African-Americans Are Highly Visible in the Military, but Almost Invisible at the Top, New York Times, 25 Ideas, feedback, suggestions? We want to May 2020 hear from you. Please contact us at NATO

Watch with any news and stories for the Miro Popkhadze, Will the United States lead Observatory, as well as feedback or the post-COVID World? Global Security suggestions.

Review, 16 June 2020

U.S. Could Face Unintended Consequences DONATE NOW PLEASE If It ‘Reinterprets’ Arms Control Pact To Sell More Drones, Forbes, 16 June 2020 NATO Watch is a small non-profit organisation that provides independent oversight and analysis Trump administration accuses of an ever-growing NATO. But with tightly stretched resources we struggle to international court of corruption at 'highest consistently and continually function as an levels,' authorizes sanctions, The Hill, 11 effective ‘watchdog’. June 2020 If you share our vision for a transparent and Must Read: Steven Simon, 19 Years Later: accountable NATO please donate whatever you How to Wind Down the War on Terror, can afford to help NATO Watch thrive. Click on Quincy Institute, 10 June 2020 the picture below to find out how you can make a donation. William J. Astore, “Light 'Em Up”: Warrior-

Cops Are the Law -- and Above the Law -- as Violence Grips America, TomDispatch.com, 7 June 2020

Justine Coleman, Former NATO commander: Protests aren't 'a battlespace to be dominated', The Hill, 7 June 2020

Kori Schake, Biden’s Chance to Disavow His Bad Foreign-Policy Ideas, The Atlantic, 6 June 2020

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