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Promoting a More Transparent and Accountable NATO Issue 55: January 2021 Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO www.natowatch.org NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 55 (September-December NATO Watch Essay: 3 2020) Meet the new boss, same as the old boss? NATO and Joe Biden News, Commentary & Reports: Published by - Arctic Security 6 NATO Watch - Arms Control and Disarmament: Gairloch, Scotland Open Skies Treaty and New START 6 IV212DS - Belarus Crisis 8 - China-NATO relations 8 - Climate Change 8 Editor: Dr. Ian Davis - Collective Defence 9 - COVID-19 and Resilience 9 - Cyber Security, Information Warfare Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly Observatory: the only online publication & Hybrid Threats 11 dedicated entirely to news and independent - Defence Budgets, Procurement & commentary on NATO policy-making and Burden Sharing 12 operational activities. The clips are drawn - Energy Security 13 from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds - Enlargement & Partnerships 14 and alerts covering a substantial part of the - Bosnia Herzegovina; Colombia; EU-NATO major English language newspapers and relations; Georgia; Serbia; South Korea; Sweden; Ukraine other periodicals worldwide. - Intra-NATO conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean 17 NATO Watch - Maritime Security 19 conducts independent monitoring and - Military Exercises 20 analysis of NATO and aims to increase - Missile Defence 20 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict 20 engagement and broaden public awareness - NATO 2030 Reflection Group 21 and participation in a progressive reform - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting - agenda within NATO. October 2020 23 - NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting – December 2020 24 - NATO Military Committee 25 - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 26 - Nuclear Weapons and the TPNW 26 - Operations and Missions 29 - Afghanistan; Iraq; Kosovo - Russia-NATO Relations 33 - Special Forces 35 - Space Policy 35 - Transatlantic Cooperation 36 - Transparency and Accountability 38 - Women, Peace and Security 38 Security News from NATO Member States 39 - Albania; Bulgaria; Canada; Croatia; Copyright © NATO Watch, 2021. Some rights Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; reserved. This publication is made available under a Creative France; Germany; Greece; Iceland; Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Montenegro; and distribution for non-profit use, provided the Netherlands; North Macedonia; authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and Norway; Poland; Romania; Turkey; UK; the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources. USA 2 NATO Watch Essay: On the positive side of the ledger are also pledges from the President-elect to re-join the Paris Agreement on climate Meet the new boss, same change, the Iran nuclear deal (if Tehran as the old boss? also complies) and the World Health Organization. However, with threat NATO and Joe Biden perceptions differing markedly across the alliance, especially in relation to 2020 was a year like no recent other: Russia and China, democratic the worst pandemic for a hundred backsliding among several NATO years, the worst economic contraction members, allied warships facing off in since the Second World War and the the Eastern Mediterranean and final year of arguably the worst differences about how quickly to exit president to ever set foot in the White Afghanistan, the new president’s House. If the three COVID-19 vaccines honeymoon period is likely to be short. undergoing authorization for use was the main feelgood event at the close of Moreover, under Trump’s ‘America the year, the election of Joe Biden to the First’ agenda NATO emerged relatively White House ran a close second, unscathed. Despite some troop especially within NATO circles. But just movements out of Germany the US as the vaccines will do little to address military presence in Europe continued the economic turmoil caused by the to grow—the European Deterrence pandemic (and especially the pre- Initiative increased during Trump’s existing societal weaknesses and presidency from $3.4 billion in the last inequalities), the new leadership in the year of the Obama administration to United States is unlikely to provide the $4.5 billion in the 2021 military budget inspiration and new thinking that is request. Moreover, Trump’s complaints needed to prioritise non-traditional about defence burden-sharing were security threats, such as climate nothing new, even if his approach was change, irregular migration and far grainier. Similarly, while he also pandemics, or address the twin spread anxiety about the solidity of the elephants in NATO HQ: US US commitment to collective defence exceptionalism and militarism. under Article V and even hinted at times about leaving NATO, both were Certainly, there will a presidential outlier positions in the broader US body bounce effect with a return to some politic. So, what can we expect from elements of Pre-Trump NATO unity. Biden in relation to some of NATO’s During a conversation with the NATO core concerns? Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, on 23 November President-elect Joe Biden Relations with Europe: underscored the importance of NATO Biden will seek to patch-up relations to US and European security. In a with Germany and France, as part of a statement the US transition team reinvigorated approach to Europe. For highlighted a “desire to engage in example, he is likely to review and consultations with allies on the full probably reverse the US troop range of transatlantic security issues” movements out of Germany (despite a and “to ensure NATO has the strategic strong argument that fewer US troops orientation and capabilities it needs to are needed in Europe to sustain the strengthen deterrence and to counter core NATO objective). However, since a new and emerging threats, including Biden presidency alone will not reset climate change and global health America’s image as a reliable ally security”. interest in European strategic autonomy—either as a distinct pillar within NATO or under EU leadership— 3 is unlikely to disappear. France (and the to adopt a very different tone but may EU) in particular will continue to seek a still make some moves towards longer-term hedge against an building a rapprochement with Russia unpredictable United States and the on some issues. However, this is spectre of a future return to Trumpism. unlikely to involve a radical departure Since Europe does not face any major from ‘deterrence and dialogue’ (but external security threat remotely on par with an overwhelming emphasis on with the former Soviet Union, European deterrence) that has been the core of strategic autonomy can be achieved NATO’s approach for at least the last without the huge hikes in military decade. spending that are being encouraged within NATO. Despite Russia being a diminished power that poses no threat of large- Military spending: scale territorial expansion across Some areas of friction with Europe will Europe, Biden’s traditionalism means persist as Biden’s administration that he will be content for NATO to treat continues the emphasis on fairer Russia in almost the same way it burden sharing. While this will mean treated the Soviet Union fifty years ago. continued calls for increased European While it would be naïve to see Russia in military spending, it is less clear 2021 as an ally, it is equally misplaced whether it will involve his own to treat almost everything that Moscow administration addressing the says and does with resentment. By ‘pandemic of Pentagon spending’. The maintaining traditional strategic latest US defence bill, approved despite alliances and adversarial divisions, a President Trump’s efforts to veto it, Biden presidency is likely to miss earmarks $740 billion—$2,235 for opportunities for new engagement and each American woman, man and policy innovation towards Russia. child—to the Pentagon, and is more China: than the defence budgets of the next ten biggest-spending countries Biden views China as “the greatest combined. strategic challenge to the United States and our allies in Asia and in Europe” Since most of Biden’s ‘transition team’ making this one of the few areas in for the Pentagon come from the which he and Trump are in agreement. hawkish Washington think tanks and It also chimes with the new NATO eight of them come from organisations, Expert Group report, ‘NATO 2030: think tanks or companies with links to United for a New Era’, which concludes the weapons industry, it is likely to be that the rise of China is the single business as usual. Biden has said that biggest, most consequential change in Trump “abandoned all fiscal discipline NATO's strategic environment. Whether when it comes to defence spending”, Europe also sees China as a strategic but this is unlikely to mean major US competitor remains an open question, defence cuts. Instead, Biden has said he although the outlook for transatlantic would shift investments from “legacy alignment is likely to be better with a systems that won’t be relevant” to Biden administration. But his “get “smart investments in technologies and tough with China” message is likely to innovations”. This focus on unmanned return NATO to precarious Cold War-era capacity, cyber and IT could even mean communist containment strategies that an increase in spending. will alienate Beijing and heighten tensions. Russia: While Trump boasted about having a NATO’s mission in Afghanistan: good relationship with the Russian Under Biden the war in Afghanistan will President Vladimir Putin, Biden is likely transition to a fourth US administration 4 over almost 20 years of conflict. While new low-yield W76-2 warheads, Biden (like Trump) has vowed to bring although production is now reported to US combat troops home from be complete. However, Biden is unlikely Afghanistan, he is likely to leave to drop plans to build a new nuclear residual counterterrorism forces and intercontinental ballistic missile force will look to coordinate the withdrawal to replace the Minuteman III fleet (if it happens) with NATO allies.
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