Issue 55: January 2021

Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

www.natowatch.org

NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 55 (September-December NATO Watch Essay: 3 2020) Meet the new boss, same as the old boss? NATO and Joe Biden

News, Commentary & Reports: Published by - Arctic Security 6 NATO Watch - Arms Control and Disarmament: Gairloch, Scotland Open Skies Treaty and New START 6 IV212DS - Belarus Crisis 8 - China-NATO relations 8 - Climate Change 8 Editor: Dr. Ian Davis - Collective Defence 9 - COVID-19 and Resilience 9 - Cyber Security, Information Warfare Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly Observatory: the only online publication & Hybrid Threats 11 dedicated entirely to news and independent - Defence Budgets, Procurement & commentary on NATO policy-making and Burden Sharing 12 operational activities. The clips are drawn - Energy Security 13 from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds - Enlargement & Partnerships 14 and alerts covering a substantial part of the - Bosnia Herzegovina; Colombia; EU-NATO major English language newspapers and relations; Georgia; Serbia; South Korea; Sweden; Ukraine other periodicals worldwide. - Intra-NATO conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean 17 NATO Watch - Maritime Security 19 conducts independent monitoring and - Military Exercises 20 analysis of NATO and aims to increase - Missile Defence 20 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict 20 engagement and broaden public awareness - NATO 2030 Reflection Group 21 and participation in a progressive reform - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting - agenda within NATO. October 2020 23 - NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting – December 2020 24 - NATO Military Committee 25 - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 26 - Nuclear Weapons and the TPNW 26 - Operations and Missions 29 - Afghanistan; Iraq; Kosovo - Russia-NATO Relations 33 - Special Forces 35 - Space Policy 35 - Transatlantic Cooperation 36 - Transparency and Accountability 38 - Women, Peace and Security 38

Security News from NATO Member States 39 - Albania; Bulgaria; Canada; Croatia; Copyright © NATO Watch, 2021. Some rights Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; reserved. This publication is made available under a Creative France; Germany; Greece; Iceland; Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Montenegro; and distribution for non-profit use, provided the Netherlands; North Macedonia; authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and Norway; Poland; Romania; Turkey; UK; the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources. USA

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NATO Watch Essay: On the positive side of the ledger are also pledges from the President-elect to re-join the Paris Agreement on climate Meet the new boss, same change, the Iran nuclear deal (if Tehran as the old boss? also complies) and the World Health Organization. However, with threat NATO and Joe Biden perceptions differing markedly across the alliance, especially in relation to 2020 was a year like no recent other: Russia and China, democratic the worst pandemic for a hundred backsliding among several NATO years, the worst economic contraction members, allied warships facing off in since the Second World War and the the Eastern Mediterranean and final year of arguably the worst differences about how quickly to exit president to ever set foot in the White Afghanistan, the new president’s House. If the three COVID-19 vaccines honeymoon period is likely to be short. undergoing authorization for use was the main feelgood event at the close of Moreover, under Trump’s ‘America the year, the election of Joe Biden to the First’ agenda NATO emerged relatively White House ran a close second, unscathed. Despite some troop especially within NATO circles. But just movements out of Germany the US as the vaccines will do little to address military presence in Europe continued the economic turmoil caused by the to grow—the European Deterrence pandemic (and especially the pre- Initiative increased during Trump’s existing societal weaknesses and presidency from $3.4 billion in the last inequalities), the new leadership in the year of the Obama administration to United States is unlikely to provide the $4.5 billion in the 2021 military budget inspiration and new thinking that is request. Moreover, Trump’s complaints needed to prioritise non-traditional about defence burden-sharing were security threats, such as climate nothing new, even if his approach was change, irregular migration and far grainier. Similarly, while he also pandemics, or address the twin spread anxiety about the solidity of the elephants in NATO HQ: US US commitment to collective defence exceptionalism and militarism. under Article V and even hinted at times about leaving NATO, both were Certainly, there will a presidential outlier positions in the broader US body bounce effect with a return to some politic. So, what can we expect from elements of Pre-Trump NATO unity. Biden in relation to some of NATO’s During a conversation with the NATO core concerns? Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, on 23 November President-elect Joe Biden Relations with Europe: underscored the importance of NATO Biden will seek to patch-up relations to US and European security. In a with Germany and France, as part of a statement the US transition team reinvigorated approach to Europe. For highlighted a “desire to engage in example, he is likely to review and consultations with allies on the full probably reverse the US troop range of transatlantic security issues” movements out of Germany (despite a and “to ensure NATO has the strategic strong argument that fewer US troops orientation and capabilities it needs to are needed in Europe to sustain the strengthen deterrence and to counter core NATO objective). However, since a new and emerging threats, including Biden presidency alone will not reset climate change and global health America’s image as a reliable ally security”. interest in European strategic autonomy—either as a distinct pillar within NATO or under EU leadership—

3 is unlikely to disappear. France (and the to adopt a very different tone but may EU) in particular will continue to seek a still make some moves towards longer-term hedge against an building a rapprochement with Russia unpredictable United States and the on some issues. However, this is spectre of a future return to Trumpism. unlikely to involve a radical departure Since Europe does not face any major from ‘deterrence and dialogue’ (but external security threat remotely on par with an overwhelming emphasis on with the former Soviet Union, European deterrence) that has been the core of strategic autonomy can be achieved NATO’s approach for at least the last without the huge hikes in military decade. spending that are being encouraged within NATO. Despite Russia being a diminished power that poses no threat of large- Military spending: scale territorial expansion across Some areas of friction with Europe will Europe, Biden’s traditionalism means persist as Biden’s administration that he will be content for NATO to treat continues the emphasis on fairer Russia in almost the same way it burden sharing. While this will mean treated the Soviet Union fifty years ago. continued calls for increased European While it would be naïve to see Russia in military spending, it is less clear 2021 as an ally, it is equally misplaced whether it will involve his own to treat almost everything that Moscow administration addressing the says and does with resentment. By ‘pandemic of Pentagon spending’. The maintaining traditional strategic latest US defence bill, approved despite alliances and adversarial divisions, a President Trump’s efforts to veto it, Biden presidency is likely to miss earmarks $740 billion—$2,235 for opportunities for new engagement and each American woman, man and policy innovation towards Russia. child—to the Pentagon, and is more China: than the defence budgets of the next ten biggest-spending countries Biden views China as “the greatest combined. strategic challenge to the United States and our allies in Asia and in Europe” Since most of Biden’s ‘transition team’ making this one of the few areas in for the Pentagon come from the which he and Trump are in agreement. hawkish Washington think tanks and It also chimes with the new NATO eight of them come from organisations, Expert Group report, ‘NATO 2030: think tanks or companies with links to United for a New Era’, which concludes the weapons industry, it is likely to be that the rise of China is the single business as usual. Biden has said that biggest, most consequential change in Trump “abandoned all fiscal discipline NATO's strategic environment. Whether when it comes to defence spending”, Europe also sees China as a strategic but this is unlikely to mean major US competitor remains an open question, defence cuts. Instead, Biden has said he although the outlook for transatlantic would shift investments from “legacy alignment is likely to be better with a systems that won’t be relevant” to Biden administration. But his “get “smart investments in technologies and tough with China” message is likely to innovations”. This focus on unmanned return NATO to precarious Cold War-era capacity, cyber and IT could even mean communist containment strategies that an increase in spending. will alienate Beijing and heighten tensions. Russia: While Trump boasted about having a NATO’s mission in Afghanistan: good relationship with the Russian Under Biden the war in Afghanistan will President Vladimir Putin, Biden is likely transition to a fourth US administration

4 over almost 20 years of conflict. While new low-yield W76-2 warheads, Biden (like Trump) has vowed to bring although production is now reported to US combat troops home from be complete. However, Biden is unlikely Afghanistan, he is likely to leave to drop plans to build a new nuclear residual counterterrorism forces and intercontinental ballistic missile force will look to coordinate the withdrawal to replace the Minuteman III fleet (if it happens) with NATO allies. Peace fielded in 1970, even though a better talks between the Afghan government option by far would be to negotiate and the Taliban are stuttering forward with Russia the mutual elimination of and NATO is expected to decide in silo-based ICBMs. February whether to continue its train, advise and assist mission or call time Conclusions after almost two decades of With the election of Joe Biden there will investment. be an urge for European leaders to turn back the clock to the pre-Trump 2016 However, peace is unlikely to come to a status quo. However, when considering country in 2021 that has known war Joe Biden’s call to restore US global since the Soviet invasion in the late leadership and to “strengthen the 1970s and with the Taliban set to coalition of democracies that stand return to power as the dominant force with us”, it should not be forgotten that in a new government. Expect, since the end of the Cold War and therefore, Biden and NATO to declare in especially since the terror attacks of February that the longest war in US 9/11, successive US administrations history has ended, while have relied on armed force to affirm or simultaneously underwriting its seek to shore up that leadership role. In continuation with a smaller military the coming years, there is also a danger presence and a greater use of remote that a Biden-led NATO will escalate a warfare—lethal strikes by armed two-front New Cold War with China and drones, cruise missiles and military Russia. special operations raids. Within NATO there were warning signs Arms control and nuclear weapons: well before President Trump that it was Biden has promised to renew New not all sunny uplands in the alliance. If START—the last remaining bilateral NATO member states had invested as arms control agreement between the much in pandemic deterrence (like United States and Russia, which limits Japan, South Korea and Taiwan who the number of deployed strategic prioritised medical preparation and nuclear warheads to 1,550 each—and contact tracing as a result of the 2002- may accept Russia’s offer to extend it 03 SARS experience) as nuclear five years without preconditions. Biden deterrence, perhaps NATO member may also rekindle the Obama states would not have collectively administration’s commitment to suffered almost 45% of the 1.8 million reducing the role of nuclear weapons in global deaths from COVID-19 in 2020. the US national defence strategy and Climate and disease should be the might even adopt a no-first-use policy dominant narratives moving forward, on nuclear weapons, something Obama and with two thirds of the world’s considered but never enacted. population lying east of Istanbul engagement with Russia and China will Biden has also signalled that he would be crucial. But sadly, NATO appears to scale back the build-up of the US be locked into the confrontations of the nuclear arsenal, and an easy win would past and the United States under Joe be to cancel the proposed new Sea- Biden is likely to be pre-occupied with Launched Cruise Missile. He has also bridge-building at home rather than previously expressed opposition to the creating a new transatlantic path.

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London calling to the faraway north, leads News, Commentary and largest NATO task force into the Barents Reports: Sea since last Cold War, The Barents Observer, 11 September 2020

Arctic Security US, NATO Warships Exercise Off Russia’s Arctic Coast, Breaking Defense, 8 The Arctic region, or High North, September 2020 strategically important during the Cold War became less significant after the As Trump shakes up America's military end of the confrontation between footprint in Europe, the US and Russia are making moves in the high north, Task and NATO and the Warsaw Pact. However, Purpose, 31 August 2020 due to both the warming climate in the Arctic and the re-emergence of Øystein Tunsjø, The Great Hype: False geopolitical competition in the region, Visions of Conflict and Opportunity in the the Arctic is once again of growing Arctic, Survival, vol. 62 no.5, 2020, pp.139-156 strategic importance. Climate change is reportedly occurring at a faster rate than previously thought, which will Arms Control and Disarmament: have a significant impact on the Arctic Open Skies Treaty and New and on the security of Arctic littoral START states. President Trump announced in May More than 1,200 military personnel, 2020 the US withdrawal from the Treaty four warships and numerous aircraft on Open Skies, citing Russia’s inability took part in the four-nation (Denmark, to adhere to the agreement. The nearly Norway, UK and USA) Barents Sea 30-year-old treaty reduces the risk of mission led by the British Navy in war by allowing the 34 member September. NATO’s new US-based countries to conduct reconnaissance Atlantic Command was declared flights and collect data on their military operational in a ribbon-cutting forces and activities. Moscow denies ceremony in Norfolk, Virginia in being in violation of the agreement. September, underlying the alliance’s The withdrawal notice took effect on 22 efforts to secure its lines of November 2020. This is the third arms communications in the North Atlantic control agreement that Trump has and the European Arctic. withdrawn from. He took the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal in Andrea Charron, NATO and The Geopolitical Future of the Arctic, Arctic 2018, and the Intermediate-range Yearbook 2020 Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019. There are also concerns for the future of the David Auerswald, NATO in the Arctic: Keep last treaty limiting US and Russian its role limited, for now, War on the Rocks, strategic nuclear weapons, New START, 12 October 2020 which will expire in February 2021. Bo Leimand, Protecting NATO’s Northern Approaches, European Security and Russia has offered to extend New Defence, 25 September 2020 START, but the Trump administration hopes to negotiate a new arms treaty NATO’s new Atlantic command to keep that would also include China. Beijing, watch over the European Arctic, Barents Observer, 18 September 2020 however, has expressed little interest in such talks. In October 2020 Russian NATO’s new Atlantic command declared president Putin proposed that NATO operational, NATO News Release, 18 and Russia should conduct mutual September 2020 inspections of each other’s military Tom Rogan, Three NATO lessons in the bases to secure a moratorium on the Arctic, Washington Examiner, 11 deployment of new missiles in Europe September 2020 following the demise of the INF Treaty.

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Russian Defense Ministry does not rule out US might revise its stance on New START, Despite the crumbling framework of TASS, 27 December 2020 arms control, in October last year, Working on new arms control in Europe NATO Secretary-General Jens incompatible with NATO course, says Stoltenberg stated that “arms control is Russian diplomat, TASS, 27 November in NATO’s DNA”, suggesting that arms 2020 control continues to be a priority for

Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and the alliance. Prompted by the Secretary International Security, IMEMO Supplement General’s remark, this report assesses to The Russian Edition of the SIPRI the contribution made by NATO in the Yearbook 2019, IMEMO 2020 field of arms control, disarmament and

Open Skies no more: US breaks with its non-proliferation; the degree to which NATO allies to pull out of Cold War-era deal arms control is embedded in the that aided global security, blaming Russia, Alliance approach to security; and to RT, 22 November 2020 what extent the objectives of defence

Oliver Meier, Yes, we can? Europe responds and arms control are effectively harmonised. to the crisis of multilateral arms control, European Leadership Network Policy Brief, The report finds that, although arms 16 November 2020 control is in NATO’s DNA, it is very Peter Jones, Open Skies: Can the U.S. much a secondary consideration. A withdrawal be delayed? European rebalancing is needed. The report Leadership Network, November 2020 makes 13 policy recommendations for

US pushes NATO allies to take action over NATO including: Beijing's nuclear plans, 9 News, 30 October - Upgrading the active pursuit of arms 2020 control into its proper position Russian President Proposes Post-INF Treaty partnering military strength as a Measures To Avoid Missile Buildup In means of achieving security at the Europe, Caspian News, 28 October 2020 lowest possible level of armament;

Robert Einhorn, US Nonproliferation - Enhancing NATO’s current Cooperation with Russia and China: A Call organisational arrangements for for Finding Common Ground with Great arms control by creating a Division Power Rivals, CNS Occasional Paper No.48, of Arms Control charged with October 2020 ensuring that arms control Putin offers NATO inspection of military considerations are fully reflected in sites after demise of nuclear arms pact, NATO policies and initiatives; Military Times, 27 October 2020 - Charging NATO’s military with the Putin invites NATO to jointly reduce constant search for innovative arms tensions in Europe as INF Treaty ends, control proposals in order to Xinhuanet, 27 October 2020 maintain security at the lowest level

ELN Group Statement: Appeal for the US of armament and to promote military government to extend New START, 13 transparency and predictability; and October 2020 - Prioritising the integration of arms Must Read: Alexander Graef, Saving the control fully into NATO policy and Open Skies Treaty: Challenges and possible action as part of a new NATO scenarios after the U.S. withdrawal, ELN Strategic Concept. Policy brief, 22 September 2020 Must Read: Simon Lunn and Nicholas Tim Morrison and Rebeccah Heinrichs, Williams, NATO’s DNA: The Alliance’s Reaffirming NATO to Protect Transatlantic contribution to arms control, disarmament, Security, RUSI Commentary, 17 September and non-proliferation, European Leadership 2020 Network, Euro-Atlantic Security Report, October 2020

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Belarus Crisis “present both opportunities and challenges that we need to address After the longtime president of Belarus, together as an alliance”. This was the Aleksandr Lukashenko, claimed 80% of first time that NATO had addressed the the vote in what many Western rise of China. Since then, further governments said was a sham election concerns have been expressed about on 9 August, protesters across the this issue at subsequent NATO country have continued to turn out in ministerial meetings, as well as with the large numbers, only to be met with a NATO 2030 initiative (see below). The fierce police crackdown. Russia has NATO Parliamentary Assembly echoed reportedly offered unspecified security this growing anti-China stance in a assistance to Lukashenko. In Political Committee General Report September Belarus closed its western ‘The Rise of China: Implications for borders with Poland and Lithuania. Global and Euro-Atlantic Security’.

Gustav Gressel, Nicu Popescu and Andrew The Pentagon expects China’s stockpile Wilson, Belarus and Armenia: How Russia of nuclear weapons to double in the handles uprisings, ECFR Commentary, 16 next decade, with the country soon September 2020 being able to launch nuclear strikes by Lia Quartapelle, Meeting Svetlana land, air, and sea— a package of Tikhanovskaya: How Europeans should capabilities known as a triad. While only support the Belarusian opposition, ECFR the United States and Russia have Commentary, 16 September 2020 maintained strong nuclear triads for Joerg Forbrig, What Is the Kremlin up to in most of the nuclear age, China would Belarus? GMF Transatlantic Take, 14 join India and France with rudimentary September 2020 nuclear triads. China’s current nuclear Gustav Gressel, The slow dismantling of the stockpile is estimated at 320 Belarusian state, ECFR Commentary, 2 warheads—less than a twentieth the September 2020 size of the US or Russian nuclear

NATO PA President and NATO Secretary arsenals. General discuss the situation in Belarus, Julie Smith, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa NATO PA News Release, 2 September 2020 Nietsche and Ellison Laskowski, Charting a Show of Force Aimed at NATO? Belarusian Transatlantic Course to Address China, Military Conduct Exercises on Western Center for a New American Security and Borders Amid Rising Tensions, Military German Marshall Fund, October 2020 Watch Magazine, 30 August 2020 Stefanie Babst, The time is ripe for NATO to President Lukashenko claims NATO has consider a dual-track strategy towards aggressive plans against Belarus, Euro China, ELN Commentary, 7 September News, 29 August 2020 2020

Belarus leader cites alleged NATO threat to Pentagon concerned by China's nuclear shore up rule, San Francisco Chronicle, 28 ambitions, expects warheads to double, August 2020 Reuters, 1 September 2020

China-NATO relations Climate Change

NATO has maintained a dialogue with NATO has recognized the adverse countries that are not part of its effects of climate change on partnership frameworks, on an ad-hoc international security. NATO’s 2010 basis, since the 1990s. One such Strategic Concept, for example, said country is China. At the NATO Leaders’ that environmental and climate change Meeting in December 2019, the London will shape the future security Declaration recognised China’s environment and have significant growing influence and international implications for the alliance's planning policies and suggested that these and operations. Similarly, the Wales

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Summit Declaration in 2014 identified NATO’s Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) climate change, water scarcity and has been certified as the alliance's increasing energy needs as future Warfighting Headquarters—the first time disruptors of security. While there is a there has been such an HQ since the Cold growing willingness in NATO to discuss War. The Corps was given the status after completing Exercise Loyal Leda, proving its and explore responses to climate- ability to command tens of thousands of related dangers, the policy road ahead multinational troops in support of the on this issue within the alliance remains alliance. The three-week exercise involved uncertain. troops working across all five military domains: air, land, sea, cyber and space. NATO-made honey gifted to Council Nearly 25 years ago, ARRC deployed on a Ambassadors, NATO News Release, 16 peacekeeping mission to Bosnia and the December 2020 completion of Exercise Loyal Leda means NATO must combat climate change, Op-ed they could again be sent on operations of a article by NATO Secretary General Jens similar scale. Stoltenberg, 27 September 2020 NATO battlegroup commanders: Successful Secretary General participates in NATO year despite COVID-19 challenges, ERR seminar on security and the environment, News, 22 December 2020 NATO News Release, 17 September 2020 The changing balance of NATO’s European fighter fleet, Flight Global, 26 November Collective Defence 2020

At successive summits since 2014, ARRC Certified as NATO's Warfighting NATO leaders have agreed a range of Headquarters, Forces.net, 20 November 2020 measures to enhance their deterrence and defence posture, including the Christelle Calmels, NATO’s 360-degree establishment of an enhanced Forward approach to security: alliance cohesion and Presence in Poland and the three Baltic adaptation after the Crimean crisis, states. They have further recognised European Security, vol. 29 no.4, 2020, pp.416-435 that credible deterrence requires these small multinational forces to be NATO deploys very high readiness force in underpinned by a robust reinforcement major test, NATO News Release, 30 October 2020 strategy.

A new report published by the US Anika Binnendijk, Gene Germanovich, Bruce European Command, calls on European McClintock and Sarah Heintz, At the Vanguard: European Contributions to NATO member states to procure more NATO's Future Combat Airpower, RAND, aircraft to complement and enhance 2020 the US F-35 in order to deter Russia. The report, ‘At the Vanguard: European Marian Zulean, NATO Must Tackle Eastern Contributions to NATO’s Future Europe’s Defence Infrastructure Gap, Balkan Insight, 20 October 2020 Combat Airpower’, features research by the RAND Corporation. It argues that if Jens Ringsmose and Mark Webber, Hedging conflict arose with Russia, most fourth- their bets? The case for a European pillar in generation platforms would be NATO, Defence Studies, vol. 20 no.4, 2020, pp.295-317 vulnerable to advanced ground-based threats. Acquiring fifth-generation platforms, which currently only COVID-19 and Resilience represent fewer than 100 of the 1,900 The COVID-19 pandemic is an combat aircraft from European NATO, unprecedented challenge. The COVID- would benefit the alliance in a high- 19 crisis clearly requires a health care intensity conflict with Russia, according driven response and thus falls largely in to the study. the province of the individual NATO member states, and (for some

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European states) within the shared classified document. As Professor Paul sovereignty which is delegated to the Rogers asks, “If NATO was informed of European Union. Throughout 2020 the outbreak in November, as US and NATO and allied military personnel Israeli sources have indicated, did have also been helping to save lives by NATO act on it and, if so, how?”. For supporting civilian efforts against appropriate lessons to be learned it is COVID-19, both in member states and crucial that NATO answers these partner countries. According to a questions. December NATO News Release this A new operations plan effort has included some 350 flights In June NATO agreed a new operational delivering critical supplies around the plan to be ready for any second wave of world; setting up almost 100 field COVID-19 and also established a trust hospitals; and the deployment of more fund to create a stockpile of medical than half a million troops to support equipment. The operational plan has the civilian response. These military not been published and only outline personnel have been involved in details of contributions to the fund are logistics, controlling borders, known. According to the December disinfecting public spaces and NATO news release, 16 member states providing medical capabilities. have contributed a total of 5 million NATO’s Euro-Atlantic Disaster Euros to the Fund and five others have Response Coordination Centre made in-kind contributions to the (EADRCC) has coordinated 22 requests stockpile. In September, for example, for assistance from NATO and partner the United States donated 200 countries, as well as the United Nations ventilators to the stockpile

Office of Coordination of Humanitarian The news release adds that “throughout Affairs. Multinational solutions, such as the autumn, Albania, Czech Republic, the Strategic Airlift Capability (SAC) and Montenegro and North Macedonia the Strategic Airlift International received dozens of ventilators and a Solution (SALIS) programmes, have total of around 1.5 million euros in contributed to the transport of a total medical supplies from the stockpile” of around 1,500 tonnes of medical and that “some financial contributions supplies and equipment were are being used to deliver relief to transported to member countries, NATO’s hardest-hit partners, including including Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, the Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Republic of Moldova, Tunisia and Poland and Romania. NATO assistance Ukraine”. has also been provided in locations where the alliance is deployed, Matthew A. Lauder, Typhon’s Song: including Afghanistan, Kosovo and Examining Russia’s Employment of COVID- Iraq. 19 Disinformation to Generate Disruptive Effects, Small Wars Journal, 25 December When did NATO first learn about the 2020 outbreak? An outstanding issue concerns the Brian E. Frydenborg, The History of Russia’s timing of when NATO first became Cyberwarfare Against NATO Shows It Is Time to Add to NATO’s Article 5, Real aware of coronavirus. According to Context News, 24 December 2020 reports, the US intelligence community became aware of the emerging disease NATO responds to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan in the second week of throughout 2020, helping Allies and November 2019 and drew up a partners, NATO News Release, 22 December 2020 classified document. US intelligence informed the Trump administration, Andrei Kadomtsev, NATO, coronacrisis and which ignored it, but also apparently obsolete ideas, Modern Diplomacy, 7 updated NATO allies and Israel with the November 2020

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Derek Chollet And Jamie Fly, As the pandemic rages on, it's time for NATO to This book includes 13 chapters that step up, The Hill, 2 November 2020 explore how NATO can best address Coronavirus response: NATO delivers cyber threats, as well as opportunities ventilators to Allies in need, NATO News and challenges from emerging and Release, 23 October 2020 disruptive technologies in the cyber

Elisabeth Braw, A 21st-Century Reality Is domain over the next decade. It Dawning on NATO, Defense One, 14 addresses these conceptual and October 2020 practical requirements and contributes to the NATO 2030 discussions. The Coronavirus response: United States delivers ventilators for NATO stockpile, book is arranged in five parts: Part I: NATO News Release, 18 September 2020 ‘Cyberspace Adversaries and NATO’s Response’; Part II: ‘New Technologies Fighting COVID-19 with science, NATO and NATO’s Response’; Part III: News Release, 7 September 2020 ‘Warfighting, the Cyber Domain and NATO’s Response’; Part IV: Cyber Security, Information ‘Information Sharing, Cyber Threat Warfare & Hybrid Threats Intelligence and Exercises’; and Part V: ‘Regulatory and Policy Responses to While NATO does not have its own Cyber Security Challenges’. cyber weapons, the alliance established an operations centre in August 2018 at A. Ertan, K. Floyd, P. Pernik, T. Stevens Mons, Belgium. Several member states (Eds.), Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: have since offered their cyber Horizon Scanning and Analysis, NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Policy Centre of capabilities. The new NATO cyber Excellence, King’s College London and operations centre (CYOC) is expected William and Mary, December 2020 to be fully staffed by 2023 and able to mount its own cyberattacks. Lauren Speranza and Nicholas Nelson, In November NATO carried out its NATO needs a strategy for emerging and largest cyber defence exercise, Cyber disruptive technologies, Defense News, 8 Coalition 20. The annual event, December 2020 operated virtually this year because of NATO cyber exercise breaks new ground, COVID-19, involved about 1,000 people Jane’s, 26 November 2020 from 25 NATO countries, four partner Benjamin Verdi, The Coming Cyber- nations and the EU. Industrial Complex: A Warning for the New

Tarah Wheeler and Amy Ertan, NATO, We US Administration, Geopolitical Monitor, 22 November 2020 Want to Go to War With You, Foreign Policy, 22 December 2020 NATO Experiments With Deceptive Tactics

Herb Lin, Reflections on the SolarWinds to Lure Russian Hackers, Defense One, 20 November 2020 Breach, Lawfare, 22 December 2020

Daniel Sunter. Disinformation in the NATO launches in-house biometrics system Western Balkans, NATO Review, 21 for secure data-sharing, Biometric Update, 18 November 2020 December 2020

NATO checking its computer systems after NATO begins exercise to combat cyberthreats, UPI, 16 November 2020 massive cyberattack against US, others, Times of Israel, 19 December 2020 NATO readies for cyber threats, NATO News Release, 16 November 2020 NATO Assessing Damage from SolarWinds Hack, Canada Issues Alert, Newsweek, 15 John Maxwell Hamilton and Kevin Kosar, December 2020 Sad! A brief history of White House

Must Read: Jack Goldsmith, Quick propaganda from Teddy Roosevelt to Thoughts on the Russia Hack, Lawfare, 14 Donald Trump, Bulletin of the Atomic December 2020 Scientists, 12 November 2020

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Benjamin Dubow, Evanna Hu, Jacob N. France, Germany, Greece, Italy and the Shapiro, Ulaş Erdoğdu and Kamya Yadav, United Kingdom announced the launch Here’s how Russia’s RT spread propaganda of a multinational project on Next- in the lead-up to the election, Bulletin of the Generation Rotorcraft Capabilities on Atomic Scientists, 9 November 2020 19 November 2020. The project is Must Read: Joshua A. Tucker, The Limited dedicated to the modernization of Room for Russian Troll Influence in 2016, existing rotorcraft fleets since a Lawfare, 27 October 2020 significant number of medium multi

Must Read: Claire Wardle, The Media Has role helicopter capabilities currently Overcorrected on Foreign Influence, operated by member states will reach Lawfare, 26 October 2020 the end of their life cycle in the 2035- 40 period and beyond. NATO Cyber Warriors Sound Warning on Working from Home, Defense Post, 14 On 20 November 2020, NATO allies October 2020 Canada and Romania and NATO partner Andrea Gilli and Francesco Bechis, NATO Australia joined the Maritime and the 5G challenge, NATO Review, 30 Unmanned Systems Initiative (MUSI), September 2020 which aims to strengthen the ability of

Deputy Secretary General at CYBERSEC: navies to operate in a multinational NATO is adapting to respond to cyber context above, on, and under the threats, NATO News Release, 28 September water. With the arrival of the three new 2020 participants, MUSI now has 17

Šekerinska: Skopje will host the biggest members (the other 14 are: Belgium, NATO conference for public relations and Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, fighting disinformation next year, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, European Western Balkans, 25 September Portugal, Spain, Turkey, the United 2020 Kingdom and the United States).

NATO Allies have agreed the civil and Defence Budgets, Procurement military budgets for 2021. At a meeting and Burden Sharing of the North Atlantic Council on Wednesday (16 December 2020), Allies The burden-sharing debate has agreed a civil budget of €258.9 million dominated successive NATO Summits and a military budget of €1.61 billion (see, for, example the discussion in for 2021. All member countries Observatory No. 48). The reluctance of contribute to these budgets, according many European member states to to an agreed cost-sharing formula spend more on defence has been a based on Gross National Income. major grievance of President Donald Trump. In October, NATO announced NATO Plans 2021 Operational Debut For that France and Norway would reach its AGS, Aviation Week, 23 December 2020 spending target for the first time in NATO defers IOC for AGS, citing Covid 2020. France will spend 2.1% in 2020 restrictions, Janes, 22 December 2020 while Germany has committed to 2% by 2031.Italy, Spain and Belgium are NATO agrees 2021 civil and military budgets, 17 December 2020 among the lowest spenders. Claudio Palestini, Countering drones: On 12 November 2020 the fifth and last looking for the silver bullet, NATO Review, NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance 16 December 2020 (AGS) aircraft arrived at the AGS Main Operating Base in Sigonella, Italy. Northrop Grumman hails NATO AGS firsts, as IOC nears, Jane’s, 10 December 2020 NATO’s AGS capability is a custom- made system procured by 15 member Geospark Analytics Signs Three-year states to be shared with the entire Agreement with NATO, prnewswire, 8 alliance. December 2020

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Edward Hunter Christie, Artificial NATO’s defense spending targets now Intelligence at NATO: dynamic adoption, ‘gold standard’ all allies should meet, key responsible use, NATO Review, 24 Trump officials say, Defense News, 21 November 2020 October 2020

Airbus keen to play key role in ‘European Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries answer’ to new NATO rotorcraft program, (2013-2020), NATO Press Release, 21 Vertical, 23 November 2020 October 2020

Five European allies sign on to build Next-Generation IT Systems Are Needed for NATO’s next medium-lift helicopter, NATO Operations, Signal, 20 October 2020 Defense News, 20 November 2020 Jana Puglierin, Security realities, ECFR Two Allies and one partner join the Commentary, 12 October 2020 Maritime Unmanned Systems (MUS) NATO to Add Additional A330 MRTTs, SLD Initiative, NATO News Release, 20 info, 2 October 2020 November 2020 NATO’s Autonomous Drone Delivery Five nations join forces to develop the Next Experiment Works, Drone Life, 29 Generation of Medium Multi-Role September 2020 Helicopters, NATO News Release, 20 November 2020 Alliance’s future innovation priorities discussed at high-level meeting, NATO Non-Stop Flight from California to Sicily News Release, 29 September 2020 Completes NATO UAV Squadron, Inside Unmanned Systems, 19 November 2020 Eos Sells Remote Weapons Systems to Two NATO Countries, AU Manufacturing, 15 Erica Pope, NATO and collective thinking on September 2020 AI, Military Balance Blog, 13 November 2020 Rob Murray, Building a resilient innovation pipeline for the Alliance, NATO Review, 1 Fifth Phoenix aircraft arrives at the AGS September 2020 Main Operating Base, NATO News Release, 12 November 2020 NATO munitions project delivers one year ahead of schedule, NATO News Release, 1 NATO receives final Alliance Ground September 2020 Surveillance aircraft in Italy, UPI, 12 November 2020 NATO receives PGMs purchased through joint procurement program, UPI, 1 NATO receives fifth and final Phoenix AGS September 2020 UAV, Jane’s, 12 November 2020

ASELSAN Wins NATO’s Defense Innovation Challenge, European Security & Defence, 10 Energy Security

November 2020 According to the 2018 Brussels Summit NATO Targets AI Interoperability, Declaration, energy security plays an Enterprise AI, 2 November 2020 important role in NATO’s common

Daniel Kochis, NATO Allies Now Spend $50 security. A stable and reliable energy Billion More on Defense Than in 2016, The supply increases the alliance’s Daily Signal, 2 November 2020 resilience against political and economic pressure (para 76). While Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence will boost security and prosperity on both sides recognising these issues are primarily a of the Atlantic, NATO Deputy Secretary national responsibility, NATO “will General says, NATO News Release, 29 continue regular allied consultations on October 2020 issues related to energy security” and “refine NATO’s role in energy security Must Read: Willis Krumholz, America enforcing a core NATO pledge does not in accordance with established mean it’s abandoning allies, Defense News, principles and guidelines, and continue 28 October 2020 to develop NATO’s capacity to support national authorities in protecting NATO partners agree to mutual air defense critical infrastructure”. systems, UPI, 23 October 2020

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Alexandra-Maria Bocse, NATO, energy common challenges such as security and institutional change, European pandemics, terrorism or climate Security, vol.29 no.4, 2020, pp.436-455 change. Rim Berahab, Global trends in the energy sector and their implication on energy NATO Deputy Secretary General spoke on security in NATO’s southern the importance of partnership with neighbourhood, Real Institute Elcano, 8 Colombia, NATO News Release, 4 September 2020 December 2020

EU-NATO relations Enlargement & Partnerships Since the signature of the Joint Bosnia Herzegovina Declaration on NATO-EU cooperation in

Bosnia and Herzegovina became a Warsaw in July 2016, NATO and the EU member of the NATO Partnership for have been discussing how to expand Peace programme in 2006 and was their joint work, including by bringing invited to join the Membership Action more coherence in their respective Plan (MAP) in 2010. However, it was defence capability development only in 2018 that NATO Foreign priorities and output. The European Ministers agreed to accept the Council Conclusions of June 2018 country’s first Annual National called for further deepening of NATO- Programme—a precondition for EU cooperation. And in July 2018 a new activation of the MAP. Brussels Joint Declaration was signed by the NATO Secretary General, the 80 Percent of Citizens living in Republika President of the European Council, and Srpska Entity are against BiH entry into the President of the European NATO, Sarajevo Times, 25 December 2020 Commission. NATO and the EU signed

NATO Secretary General marks the 25th a further agreement on 10 December anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement 2018 to cooperate in promoting good and underscores the importance of governance in the defence and security continued partnership with Bosnia- sector. A core current debate centres Herzegovina, NATO News Release, 21 on whether the EU should develop November 2020 ‘strategic autonomy’, and if so, Four-day Military Exercise respecting NATO whether this should be carried out Standards started at Manjaca, Sarajevo independently of NATO or as a Times, 19 September 2020 European pillar within the alliance.

NATO Military Exercise to be held on NATO chief attends EU Commission college Manjaca near Banja Luka, Sarajevo Times, meeting, Anadolu Agency, 15 December 19 September 2020 2020

NATO’s secure online-meeting tools have Colombia some in the European Union jealous,

Defense News, 11 December 2020 Colombia is NATO’s first partner in Latin America, and NATO has been Ryszard Czarnecki, Strategic autonomy and working with Colombia since 2013. EU-NATO cooperation, Daily Sabah, 2 Since 2017 NATO and Colombia have December 2020 cooperated under the framework of an Niklas Helwig, EU Strategic Autonomy: A Individual Partnership and Cooperation Reality Check for Europe’s Global Agenda, Programme. In December, NATO FIIA Working Paper, October 2020

Deputy Secretary General Mircea Jana Puglierin, Touching the elephant: Geoană spoke at the Concordia European views of the transatlantic Americas Summit on the importance of relationship, ECFR Commentary, 28 having global partnerships with September 2020 countries like Colombia, to counter

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Georgia NATO ex-Sec-Gen Rasmussen says Georgia has fulfilled criteria for NATO A 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration membership, Agenda.ge, 30 September promised eventual NATO membership 2020 for Georgia—a position reiterated at several NATO summits since, and most NATO chief tells Georgian PM to ‘prepare for membership’, Emerging Europe, 29 recently in July 2018. In September September 2020 some 2,800 troops from the United States, France, Britain and Poland took NATO Secretary General welcomes Prime part in the Noble Partner 2020 Minister Gakharia of Georgia at NATO exercises held at training centres near Headquarters, NATO News Release, 29 September 2020 Tbilisi. Georgia Hosts Major Drills With 2,800 The NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in NATO Forces, Defense Post, 7 September December (see below) restated support 2020 for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia and reiterated Serbia that the country is a valued partner making important contributions to Unlike other Western Balkan partners, NATO missions. An updated Serbia does not aspire to join NATO. Substantial NATO-Georgia Package However, the country is deepening its (SNGP) was approved. Georgian Foreign political dialogue and cooperation with Minister David Zalkaliani confirmed the alliance on issues of common that three new programmes were interest, such as defence reforms. A added to the initial 14 programmes of November survey conducted by the the SNGP. Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies and the Center for Free Elections and Deoccupation, EU, NATO integration top Democracy showed that 80% of the priorities in parliamentary foreign policy citizens do not support membership in resolution, Agenda.ge, 27 December 2020 NATO, 15% would not vote, while one in Franziska Smolnik, The Strategic every 20 citizens (5%) would be in Partnership between Georgia and the favour of Serbia joining NATO. United States: Vision Wanted, German Institute for International and Security Vitale: Public diplomacy one of the biggest Affairs, SWP Research Paper 15, December challenges for NATO in Serbia, European 2020 Western Balkans, 18 December 2020

Georgia receives updated substantial Serbian parties: Relations with NATO package with NATO, Agenda.ge, 3 should be openly discussed, membership December 2020 not on the agenda, European Western Balkans, 11 December 2020 NATO PA President calls on Georgian authorities to investigate all election- Serbian Assembly Foreign Affairs related incidents in a transparent, fair Committee: Cooperation with NATO manner, Agenda.ge, 6 November 2020 successful and important, European Western Balkans, 3 December 2020 Statement by the NATO PA President on recent political and electoral developments Russia donates tanks to Serbia, NATO does in Georgia, NATO PA News Release, 6 not see it as a problem, European Western November 2020 Balkans, 1 December 2020

President Zurabishvili Talks EU, NATO Survey: 80% of Serbian citizens against Integration, Occupied Territories, Civil.ge, NATO membership, but only 33% against 13 October 2020 cooperation, Europe Western Balkans, 17

November 2020 Krassen Stanchev, A Staunch Ally: Georgian Democracy and NATO, Visegrad Insight, 5 “Serbia and NATO have to work on October 2020 restoring trust in one, European Western Balkans, 17 November 2020

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DiPaolo: Despite suspension of exercises, its airspace and waters several times. Serbia-NATO political dialogue resumes Swedish troop numbers will rise from without interruption, European Western 60,000 to 90,000 over the four-year Balkans, 16 November 2020 period. In addition, the country’s long- Serbia suspends all military exercises for held principle of non-alignment is also six months, NATO says they did not plan coming into question after a majority in any, European Western Balkans, 10 the Swedish parliament backed the September 2020 option to join NATO. This emerged for

the first time after the far-right Sweden South Korea Democrats party shifted position on the military alliance. The 11th policy consultation between South Korean and NATO officials was Sweden edges closer to NATO membership, held on 30 October 2020 in a virtual Politico, 22 December 2020 format. After joining NATO as one of its Dov S. Zakheim, Russia prompts Sweden to “Partners across the globe” in 2006, revive its defense, The Hill, 21 December South Korea has held regular policy 2020 consultations with NATO since 2008 (the 10th meeting was held in Brussels Patrick Oksanen, Sweden's Nato debate resurfaces, EU Observer, 14 December in October 2018). In the latest policy 2020 consultation, the two sides enhanced mutual understanding on the situations Sweden to increase military spending by on the Korean Peninsula, in Northeast 40% as tension with Russia grows, The Guardian, 15 October 2020 Asia and in Europe, and had extensive discussions on various issues including NATO Secretary General discusses security ways to increase bilateral cooperation challenges with the Swedish Foreign in areas including cybersecurity, Minister, NATO News Release, 22 September 2020 counterterrorism, disaster relief and stabilization efforts in Afghanistan. Gerhard Wheeler, Northern Composure: Initial Observations from Sweden’s Total 11th ROK-NATO Policy Consultation Takes Defence 2020 Exercise, RUSI Commentary, Place, South Korea Ministry of Foreign 3 September 2020 Affairs, 2 November 2020

Ukraine Sweden Ukraine signed a partnership NATO and Sweden actively cooperate in agreement with NATO in 1997 and peace and security operations, and the launched talks on full membership in country has been a major contributor to 2005. But those talks never progressed NATO-led operations and missions in far, and the situation became even the Balkans and Afghanistan. Sweden more complicated when Russia invaded joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in Ukrainian territory in 2014, annexing 1994 and became a member of the Crimea and launching irregular warfare Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in in other parts of the country. Since 1997. Sweden is one of five countries 2014, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine that has enhanced opportunities for conflict, cooperation has intensified. In dialogue and cooperation with NATO. June 2020 NATO recognised Ukraine as Sweden has embarked on its largest an Enhanced Opportunities Partner. military build-up for decades. A This status is part of NATO’s perceived threat from Russia prompted Partnership Interoperability Initiative, a bill to raise defence spending by 40% which aims to maintain and deepen over the next four years to £7.2 billion, cooperation between allies and or about 1.5% of GDP. In recent years, partners that have made significant Sweden has accused Russia of violating contributions to NATO-led operations

16 and missions. Ukraine is now one of six Law on Intelligence required by NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partners, comes into force, UNIAN, 24 October 2020 alongside Australia, Finland, Georgia, Russia as aggressor, NATO as objective: Jordan and Sweden. Each of the Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy, partners has a tailor-made relationship Atlantic Council, 30 September 2020 with NATO, based on areas of mutual NATO Representation to Ukraine, Kherson interest. region to deepen cooperation on In September a joint NATO-Ukraine humanitarian projects, Ukrinform, 25 September 2020 combat exercise took place in Khmelnytsky region, central Ukraine. A Ukraine's Army, NATO soldiers exercise in Special Forces unit and their Khmelnytsky region, 112 International, 24 counterparts from NATO conducted September 2020 training exercises. Ospreys draw eyes over Ukraine during

An October opinion poll indicated 41% special ops exercises, AirForce Times, 24 September 2020 of Ukrainians believe the country should join NATO (41.9% in April). A Ukrainian and U.S. special operations total of 37.1% of those polled (34.7% in forces kicked off exercise Fiction Urchin, April) are in favour of Ukraine being a Defence Blog, 22 September 2020 non-aligned state. Only 13% of those surveyed support membership in the Intra-NATO conflict in the Eastern Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Mediterranean Organization (CSTO). The poll also showed 49% support for accession to Turkey and Greece are at odds in a race the EU (46.1% in April), as well as 13.8% to develop energy resources in the to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Eastern Mediterranean. The two consisting of Russia, Belarus, countries have laid claim to Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan overlapping areas, arguing they belong (against 13.1% in April). to their respective continental shelves. Since July relations between Greece and Zelensky: Ukraine not to abolish NATO Turkey have deteriorated despite membership objective enshrined in German-brokered dialogue. Constitution, Ukrinform, 21 December 2020 NATO facilitated a military de- confliction mechanism between Greece Ukraine hopes to join NATO by 2030 - Foreign Ministry, Interfax-Ukraine, 5 and Turkey in October—including a December 2020 hotline between the two NATO member states and the cancellation of specific Ukraine ready to increase contributions to military exercises—but tensions in the NATO-led operations – Taran, Ukrinform, 3 region have continued. Both sides have December 2020 deployed warships in a show of force, Alyona Getmanchuk, Irakli Porchkhidze, raising fears of conflict erupting by and Sergiy Solodkyy, Strengthening ties accident. between NATO, Ukraine and Georgia, Atlantic Council, 24 November 2020 At the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in December the Secretary General said NATO says Ukraine needs to focus on internal reforms, Kyiv Post, 18 November he was looking at ways to further 2020 strengthen the de-deconfliction mechanism and to further reduce the Ukraine survey shows popular attitudes risks for incidents and accidents. toward EU, NATO membership, UNIAN, 11 According to media reports there were November 2020 some quite sharp exchanges during the NATO names conditions for Ukraine to ministers videoconference, especially receive Membership Action Plan, between the United States and Turkey. Xinhuanet, 28 October 2020 During his press conference the NATO

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Secretary General sidestepped a Canada willing to play role of honest question about the clashes between broker, FM tells Kathimerini, Ekathimerini, 13 October 2020 outgoing US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Turkish Foreign Minister William Grant-Brook and Elio Calcagno, The Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. Apparently, Pompeo Mediterranean Powder Keg: US Inaction accused Turkey of fuelling tensions Leaves NATO Exposed, Defense Post, 9 October 2020 with fellow allies in the Mediterranean and of aiding Moscow by purchasing a Turkey Demands Greek Islands Sovereignty Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft Added to De-Escalation Talks, National system. The Turkish Foreign Minister Herald, 4 October 2020 apparently responded by accusing Turkey, Greece reach understanding on Pompeo of urging European allies to 'general principles', Anadolu Agency, 1 gang up on Turkey, of siding blindly October 2020 with Greece in regional conflicts and of Military de-confliction mechanism between refusing to sell Ankara US-made Patriot Greece and Turkey established at NATO, anti-aircraft weapons. Other reports NATO News Release, 1 October 2020 suggested that France and Luxembourg joined Pompeo in NATO to hold naval drill in Mediterranean Sea, Daily Sabah, 1 October 2020 criticising Turkey. NATO-led talks continue amid hopes for Ankara urges Athens to use common Turkey, Greece to resolve underlying sense, act responsibly, Daily Sabah, 27 problems, Daily Sabah, 29 September 2020 December 2020 NATO: Talks between Greece, Turkey to NATO head urges EU to take “positive help solve issues, Anadolu Agency, 28 approach” towards Turkey, Anadolu September 2020 Agency, 10 December 2029 Pompeo speaks with NATO chief about Turkish research ship in port after Mediterranean tensions, ABC News, 27 Mediterranean survey, Houston Chronicle, September 2020 30 November 2020 Alessandro Gagaridis, NATO Arms Sales to Turkey Probes German Navy's Search of Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean Libya-Bound Freighter, Military.com, 29 Dispute, Geopolitical Monitor Situation November 2020 Reports, 25 September 2020

Turkey and Greece agree to call off war Turkey convenes top security board after games: Nato chief, Middle East Eye, 23 Ankara-Athens deal for talks, Hurriyet Daily October 2020 News, 24 September 2020

Turkey announces East Med naval exercises Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Best to sit and talk: How despite NATO agreement, Ahval, 23 to solve the conflict in the eastern October 2020 Mediterranean, ECFR Commentary, 24 Greece and Turkey agree to cancel war September 2020 games: NATO chief, Al Jazeera, 23 October NATO Secretary General discusses Eastern 2020 Mediterranean with Prime Minister Ian Anthony and Michael Sahlin, Maritime Mitsotakis, NATO News Release, 24 disputes in the eastern Mediterranean: Why September 2020 and why now? SIPRI Commentary, 23 NATO Secretary General discusses situation October 2020 in Eastern Mediterranean with President Fabio Telarico, Eastern Mediterranean: too Erdogan, NATO News Release, 23 small of a bathtub for two swimmers, September 2020

Global Risks Insights, 18 October 2020 How to Defuse Tensions in the Eastern Laura Kelly, US rebukes Turkey for Mediterranean, International Crisis Group 'calculated provocation' in eastern Statement, 22 September 2020 Mediterranean, The Hill, 13 October 2020

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NATO hosts 5th round of Turkish, Greek Turkish-Greek Military Talks Postponed talks on Tuesday, Anadolu Agency, 21 Until Thursday: Turkish Sources, New York September 2020 Times, 8 September 2020

Thomas Trask and Jonathan Ruhe, The road Ramzy Baroud, As Washington retreats, to a war within NATO, National Interest, 19 Eastern Mediterranean conflict further September 2020 marginalises NATO, Middle East Monitor, 7 September 2020 Turkey's top diplomat, NATO chief talk east Med over phone, Hurriyet Daily News, 18 NATO sets up talks in search for solution to September 2020 Turkey-Greece conflict, Arab News, 5 September 2020 NATO keeps France-Turkey probe under wraps as tempers flare, Reuters, 17 NATO says Greece, Turkey set for 'technical September 2020 talks' on Med tension, Al Jazeera, 4 September 2020 John Kittmer, Tension in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean: What Does Greece NATO signals Turkey-Greece breakthrough, Want? RUSI Commentary,16 September Athens denies deal, Deutsche Welle, 3 2020 September 2020

Jana Puglierin, José Ignacio Torreblanca, NATO Secretary General statement on George Tzogopoulos, Tara Varma and technical talks for de-confliction in the Arturo Varvelli, Views from the capitals: Gas Eastern Mediterranean, NATO News conflict in the eastern Mediterranean, ECFR, Release, 3 September 2020 16 September 2020 Press Release Regarding the Statement of NATO-brokered talks between alliance NATO Secretary-General on the Launch of members Greece, Turkey to recommence, Technical Meetings between Turkey and Ekathimerini, 15 September 2020 Greece within NATO, Turkey Foreign Ministry, 3 September 2020 Two Powerful NATO Members On The Verge Of A Deadly Military Conflict? Judy Asks: Is NATO Paralyzed Over the Eurasian Times, 15 September 2020 Greece-Turkey Conflict?, Carnegie Europe, 3 September 2020 Georgiy Kuhaleyshvili, Greek-Turkish conflict: Battle for Resources and NATO Mediterranean frenemies face off: Greece, crisis, 112 International, 14 September Turkey at ‘the abyss’, Christian Science 2020 Monitor, 1 September 2020

NATO in unprecedented bid at in-house Serkan Demirtaş, NATO should act to deconfliction between Turkey, Greece, Al- defuse Turkish-Greek tension, Hurriyet Monitor, 14 September 2020 Daily News, 31 August 2020

Ramzy Baroud, NATO further marginalised, New Age, 14 September 2020 Maritime Security

Patrick Wintour, How a rush for NATO’s 2011 Maritime Strategy sets Mediterranean gas threatens to push out a series of activities that includes Greece and Turkey into war, The Guardian, 11 September 2020 collective defence, crisis management, cooperative security and maritime Ted Galen Carpenter, An Old NATO security. Nightmare Returns: Possible War between Greece and Turkey, CATO Commentary, 10 NATO stands up Joint Force Command September 2020 Norfolk to boost readiness in the Atlantic,

Navy Times, 18 September 2020 Greece refutes reports of talks with Turkey at NATO, Ekathimerini, 10 September 2020 NATO Submarining, DVIDs, 17 September

All East Med manoeuvres conform to NATO 2020 criteria, insists Turkey’s PM, Middle East Monitor, 9 September 2020

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Military Exercises Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

NATO scaled down military exercises in In late September, Azerbaijan and Europe to curb the spread of the Armenian forces resumed fighting in a coronavirus. major eruption of their decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a The U.S. Navy Just Sent Another Warning disputed region that is ethnically Message to Russia, National Interest, 6 Armenian but located inside December 2020 Azerbaijan. In a joint statement the NATO air force exercise kicks off in Baltic leaders of France, Russia and the skies, ERR News, 21 September 2020 United States called for a ceasefire, as Bombers, Marine F-35s Join Point Blank 20- did the NATO Secretary General in a 4 Exercise, Aviation Pros, 16 September separate statement. French President 2020 Emmanuel Macron said the latest fighting was initiated by Azerbaijan,

Missile Defence while Turkey, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, provided support to Azeri Major components of NATO missile fighters. After six weeks of fighting defence currently include US Navy Russia brokered a ceasefire in the destroyers fitted with the Aegis missile conflict in November. defence system based in Rota, Spain; and a US-operated land-based system France wants international supervision in in Romania and Poland known as Aegis Nagorno-Karabakh, worries about Turkey's role, Daly Sabah, 20 November 2020 Ashore. Other key components include an early warning radar in Turkey. Emil Avdaliani, Turkey’s Win-Win Strategy in NATO's air command in Ramstein, the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, BESA Germany is the responsible command. Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,816, 13 November 2020 New independent research published in September shows a substantial gap Nagorno-Karabakh: The next Syria in the Caucasus? Daily Sabah, 24 October 2020 between the effectiveness of missile defence systems in combat and the Ted Galen Carpenter, Is NATO Ally Turkey public statements from government Forcing a Dangerous US‐Russia and industry officials about their Confrontation? CATO Institute, 23 October 2020 effectiveness. In November, the US military announced that it had Nato and EU silent on Turkey, despite successfully tested shooting down an Armenia's appeal, EU Observer, 21 October intercontinental ballistic missile from a 2020 warship at sea for the first time. Until President of Armenia visits the NATO then, the Pentagon relied on missile Headquarters, NATO News Release, 21 interceptors based in silos in Alaska October 2020 and California. Turkey says it will send troops to help

Azerbaijan if requested, TRT World, 21 The Navy Has Shot Down an October 2020 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile for the First Time, Popular Mechanics, 17 Armenian president wants NATO to explain November 2020 Turkish involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh, Politico, 17 October 2020 Christian Alwardt, US Missile Defence Efforts and Chinese Reservations in East Turkey’s Caucasus Adventure Risks Asia, Asian Affairs, vol.51 no.3, 2020, pp. Another Crisis in NATO, Foreign Policy, 6 605-620 October 2020

Shea Cotton and Jeffrey Lewis, The Global Erdogan on collision course with NATO over Missile Defense Race: Strong Test Records Nagorno-Karabakh war, Arab News, 6 and Poor Operational Performance, NTI October 2020 Analysis, 16 September 2020

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Azerbaijan Claims String Of Villages In recommendations for consideration by Nagorno-Karabakh Region; Armenia Calls the next NATO Summit in 2021, and Attack Unprecedented, Radio Free Europe/ then eventually the elaboration of a Radio Liberty, 3 October 2020 new Strategic Concept, as Ido Vock, Crisis in the Caucasus: how recommended in the expert group Nagorno-Karabakh poses a challenge for report. Nato, New Statesman, 2 October 2020 Among the report’s other 138 France and Turkey at odds as Karabakh fighting divides NATO allies, Reuters, 30 recommendations are that NATO September 2020 should continue the dual-track approach of deterrence and dialogue Ted Galen Carpenter, NATO’s Rogue with a “persistently aggressive” Russia; Member Meddles in Another Conflict, CATO devote “much more time, political Institute, 29 September 2020 resources, and action” to the security Ian Anthony, Escalating violence in challenges posed by China; coordinate Nagorno-Karabakh: Local solutions offer information-sharing and collaboration the main hope, SIPRI Commentary, 30 on emerging and disruptive September 2020 technologies; more explicitly integrate Statement by James Appathurai, the the fight against terrorism into its core Secretary General’s Special Representative tasks; take a coordinated approach for the Caucasus and Central Asia, NATO with the EU in addressing challenges to News Release, 27 September 2020 the South; reaffirm its support for arms

control while maintaining an “effective NATO 2030 Reflection Group nuclear deterrence”; build on efforts to include climate change and other non- NATO leaders agreed at their December military threats such as pandemics in 2019 summit in London that Secretary NATO planning on resilience and crisis General Jens Stoltenberg should head management; reassert its core identity up a "reflection process" aimed at as an alliance rooted in the principles strengthening the alliance’s political of democracy; strengthen transatlantic dimension. Stoltenberg named a panel consultation mechanisms, including of 10 experts on 31 March 2020—five between the EU and NATO; outline a men and five women—to be co-chaired global blueprint for better utilising its by Thomas de Maizière, a member of partnerships to advance NATO the Bundestag and former German strategic interests; strengthen defence minister and A. Wess Mitchell, measures to reach and implement a former assistant secretary of state for decisions in a timely fashion; and take European affairs in Trump's measures to strengthen NATO’s administration. In June, NATO Secretary political dimension. General Jens Stoltenberg launched his outline for NATO 2030. NATO Watch is coordinating a detailed The expert group report, NATO 2030: evaluation of the report by civil society United for a New Era, was publicly representatives that will be published launched by the Secretary General on 3 in February 2021 in advance of the next December and also discussed at the NATO ministerial meeting. An initial NATO Foreign Ministers meeting (see overall takeaway from the expert group below). The expert group report is report is that, if implemented, it risks expected to help frame further helping to entrench a systemic three consultations over the coming months bloc rivalry between China, Russia and with allies, civil society, NATO-EU-US. parliamentarians, young leaders and the private sector. Ultimately, these are Following the public launch of the expected to lead to Stoltenberg tabling report it was the emphasis on China a number of strategic level that received the most media coverage

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(see, for example, Deutsche Welle, and (d) implementing time-limited South China Morning Post and New crisis decision-making (i.e. by seeking York Times). The most robust of the to achieve consensus within 24 hours report's recommendations in relation during a crisis). to China suggests greater investment in NATO's "ability to monitor and Must Read: Gil Barndollar, NATO's New defend against any Chinese activities Purpose: An Alliance Reborn to Take on China? National Interest, 15 December that could impact collective defence, 2020 military readiness and/or resilience". Marta Dassù, How NATO should plan for When asked about the NATO expert the next ten years, ECFR Commentary, 14 group report, Chinese Foreign Ministry December 2020 spokesperson Hua Chunying rebutted Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană the idea that China posed a threat to said that NATO’s DNA is values and the alliance. “China has never practiced foresight, NATO News Release, 11 anything like ‘coercive diplomacy’ or December 2020

‘intimidating diplomacy,’” Hua told Shayan Karbassi, The Future of NATO, reporters at a daily press briefing on 1 Lawfare, 10 December 2020 December. “We hope NATO will uphold a correct view on China, look at China’s Sale Lilly, NATO Sets Its Sights on China, Real Clear Defense, 10 December 2020 development and domestic and foreign policies in a rational manner, and do Teri Shultz, Friend or foe: China has NATO worried, Deutsche Welle, 8 December 2020 more things that are conducive to international and regional security and Stuart Lau, Not friends. Not enemies. Where stability. China stands ready to conduct to now for Nato on China? South China dialogue and cooperation with NATO Morning Post, 6 December 2020 on the basis of equality and mutual NATO report terms China a threat to Euro- respect”, Hua concluded. Atlantic security; Beijing says "victim

The report also provides several key paranoia", Republic World, 6 December 2020 recommendations to address tensions between member states and to simplify Luke Coffey, NATO needs to remain decision-making. It cites “single- focused on Russia, Arab News, 5 December 2020 country blockages involving external bilateral disputes” as particularly Serkan Demirtaş, Turkey sees NATO 2030 problematic in preventing timely report as balanced, Hurriyet Daily News, 5 decisions. To correct this the report December 2020 recommends: (a) strengthening the Can reform and refocus save ‘brain dead’ Secretary General’s role to make NATO?, Euractiv, 4 December 2020 decisions on more routine matters and to serve as a mediator in disputes Sebastian Springer, NATO must find a between member states; (b) creating a unified voice to talk about — not to — China, advisers find, Defense News, 3 more “structured mechanism to December 2020 support the establishment of coalitions inside existing alliance structures”; (c) Secretary General: NATO must continue to raising the threshold for a single adapt, NATO News Release, 3 December 2020 country’s ability to block NATO actions to the ministerial level and increasing 'Victim complex' drives NATO to view China the number of foreign and defence as a rival, Global Times, 2 December 2020 ministerial meetings so as to ensure Report urges NATO to expand its focus to that member state diplomats can more include China, Taipei Times, 2 December regularly evaluate the “political health 2020 and development” of the organization;

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Nato report says China could pose military NATO Deputy Secretary General and Allied threat to Europe and US, South China Parliamentarians discuss NATO today and Morning Post, 2 December 2020 in 2030, NATO News Release, 26 October 2020 NATO defense ministers discuss agenda 2030, Anadolu Agency, 2 December 2020 Lawrence Aronhime and Alexander Cocro, Working with NATO: the experience of NATO must adapt to global threats, not just Johns Hopkins University, NATO Review, 21 Russia: Report, Al Jazeera, 1 December October 2020 2020 Māris Andžāns and Mārtiņš Vargulis (eds), NATO Needs to Adapt Quickly to Stay Relevant for 2030, Report Urges, New York Towards #NATO2030: The Regional Perspective of the Baltic States and Poland, Times, 30 November 2020 Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Group of experts presents report to 2020 Secretary General, NATO News Release, 25 November 2020 Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti, NATO’s Future: Euro-Atlantic Alliance in a Hans Binnendijk and Daniel Hamilton, Four Peacetime War, Instituto Affari factors to consider in keeping NATO Internazionali, IAI Papers 20/28, October relevant, Defense News, 24 November 2020 2020 NATO chief seeks technology gains in Secretary General addresses the NATO alliance reform push, Defense News, 9 Parliamentary Assembly – adapting NATO October 2020 for 2030 and beyond, NATO News Release, 23 November 2020 Jeremy Cliffe, Westlessness: how cracks within NATO signal a new balance of global NATO faces existential threat if it can’t power, New Statesman, 8 September 2020 reach younger generations, report warns, Defense News, 10 November 2020 James Goldgeier and Garret Martin, NATO’S never-ending struggle for relevance, War on

the Rocks, 3 September 2020

NATO 20/2020, Twenty Bold Ideas to Reimagine the Alliance after the 2020 US NATO Defence Ministers Meeting election, Atlantic Council and Scowcroft 22-23 October 2020 Center for Strategy and Security, December 2020 The NATO Defence Ministers held a virtual two-day meeting to discuss four • Modernise the kit and the message • Build an Atlantic Pacific partnership main issues: strengthening deterrence • Digitalize the enterprise and defence in all domains, including • Seek membership for Mexico the response to Russia’s new nuclear- • Threaten decisive nuclear retaliation capable missiles and the rise of China; • Open a bank boosting resilience in member states; • Disband the NATO Response Force progress on fairer burden-sharing; and • Listen to women NATO missions and operations, • Supersize cyber particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq. • Revitalize NATO’s grand strategy Key activities and decisions taken:

• Design a digital Marshall Plan  Ministers agreed to create a NATO • Build resilience for an era of shocks Space Centre at Allied Air Command • Ramp up on Russia in Ramstein, Germany. • Christen a carrier strike group • Set NATO’s sights on the High North  In reaction to Russia’s “growing • Rethink and replace two percent arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles”, • Game out decision making ministers reviewed progress towards • Put NATO back in the narrative a “comprehensive response package • End the Russian veto on Georgian of political and military measures” accession agreed previously in June 2020. • Reimagine the Washington Treaty

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 NATO’s “nuclear deterrent” is being multilateral initiative on rockets, kept “safe, secure and effective”, artillery and mortar threats; Ten including through an “annual nuclear NATO states (Belgium, Denmark, deterrence exercise”. Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia,  Ministers received a “comprehensive Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and the report” on the status of critical UK) launched a multinational infrastructure within the alliance, initiative to develop ground-based including ports and airports, air defence capabilities. supplies of fuel, food and medical  A NATO Policy on Battlefield equipment and telecommunications. Evidence from operational theatres The report was not made public, but was agreed to aid efforts against identifies vulnerabilities, e.g. those terrorism.

arising from foreign ownership and the threat to undersea cables. For further details read: NATO seeks  It was agreed to strengthen the more resilient member states but alliance’s resilience pledge when continues to ignore the fundamentals NATO leaders meet in 2021. That of strong societies: openness and NATO Summit will also consider the transparency, NATO Watch Briefing Paper No.79, 26 October 2020 outcome of the 2030 reflection process and the NATO Secretary General’s proposals for a new NATO Allies agree Policy on Battlefield Evidence from operational theatres to Strategic Concept. boost efforts against terrorism, NATO News  2020 will be the sixth consecutive Release, 23 October 2020

year of increased military spending NATO Defence Ministers take decisions to by European NATO members and strengthen our security, NATO News Canada (with an annual increase of Release, 23 October 2020 4.3% in real terms). Despite the pandemic ministers expect this Allies discuss NATO’s support for Afghanistan and Iraq, NATO News Release, upward trend to continue. 23 October 2020  There was a “productive exchange of Ten Allies agree to explore modular views” on the situation in the Eastern solution for ground based air defence, Mediterranean. Greece and Turkey NATO News Release, 23 October 2020 agreed to cancel rival military exercises, but conflicting media Four Allies launch multinational initiative reports later suggested that some on Rapidly Deployable Mobile Counter Rockets, Artillery and Mortar Capability, Turkish naval exercises would NATO News Release, 23 October 2020 continue. NATO Allies reaffirm commitment to  Intra-NATO divisions also persist re deterrence, resilience and fairer burden the armed conflict in Nagorno- sharing at their virtual Defence Ministers’ Karabakh and Turkey’s Russian Meeting, NATO News Release, 22 October missile system. 2020

 Ministers reiterated their strong NATO Defence Ministers meet to address commitment to Afghanistan’s long- security challenges, NATO News Release, term security and support for the 21 October 2020 peace process.

 Ministers agreed to expand NATO’s NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting training mission in Iraq, to help the 1-2 December 2020 Iraqi government fight international terrorism. The NATO Foreign Ministers held a virtual two-day meeting to discuss four  Four NATO states (Germany, Greece, main issues: (a) the NATO 2030 Hungary and the UK) launched a initiative and the continued adaptation of the alliance; (b) the Russian military threat, including the security situation 24 in the Black Sea region and NATO’s of State Mike Pompeo and Turkish partnerships with Georgia and Ukraine; Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. (c) the rise of China, a discussion that  Ministers reiterated their included NATO’s four Asia-Pacific commitment to the NATO training partners (Australia, Japan, New Zealand mission in Afghanistan and and South Korea), as well as Finland, discussed the impact of the US Sweden and the EU Union High decision to reduce its troop numbers Representative; and (d) NATO’s mission to 2,500. NATO will continue to in Afghanistan. Key activities and assess the situation and will have to decisions taken: decide whether to stay or leave in  Ministers discussed the NATO 2030 February 2021, when NATO defence initiative including a report by an ministers meet. expert group appointed by the  NATO plans to hold a summit with Secretary General. Further President-elect Biden in 2021 (the consultations will take place to exact date is not yet decided).

prepare recommendations for NATO leaders in 2021. For further details read: NATO seeks  In response to Russia’s “continued a new political path but continues to military build-up”, ministers march to old military tunes, NATO expressed support for preserving Watch Briefing Paper No.80, 16 limitations on nuclear weapons and December 2020

for developing a more comprehensive arms control regime, Shannon Tiezzi, NATO Huddles With Asia- but without outlining any new Pacific Democracies to Talk China, The Diplomat, 3 December 2020 thinking or proposals towards these ends. Foreign Ministers address NATO 2030,  With Asia-Pacific partners Australia, Afghanistan, Russia, security in the Black Sea region, and the rise of China, NATO Japan, New Zealand and South News Release, 2 December 2020 Korea, as well as Finland, Sweden and the EU High Representative, the NATO Foreign Ministers discuss China’s ministers discussed the shift in the rise, security in the Black Sea region, NATO News Release, 2 December 2020 global balance of power and the rise of China. Separately, NATO agreed a Pompeo criticises Turkey over Russian classified report on China. missiles, alliance reforms at NATO talks, France24, 2 December 2020  Ministers discussed security in the Black Sea region with the foreign US and Turkey target each other in NATO meeting, Politico, 1 December 2020 ministers of Georgia and Ukraine. NATO’s practical support for both NATO Foreign Ministers discuss future of countries’ reform programmes is the alliance, Afghanistan, Russia, NATO being ‘stepped up’. Ministers also News Release, 1 December 2020

discussed developments in Nagorno- Secretary General: NATO Foreign Ministers Karabakh and Belarus. to address key issues for our Alliance,  Ministers discussed the continuing NATO News Release, 30 November 2020

tensions in the Eastern FM Çavuşoğlu to discuss regional issues, Mediterranean and the NATO- strengthening alliance in NATO meeting, brokered de-confliction mechanism Daily Sabah, 30 November 2020 agreed previously between Greece and Turkey. Media reports suggest NATO Military Committee that there were some sharp exchanges between the US Secretary The NATO chiefs of defence met virtually for the alliance's Military Committee meeting in September.

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Under the leadership of Air Chief activities and bring the total number of Marshal Sir Stuart Peach, the chairman delegates to approximately 360. of the committee, the chiefs discussed The Assembly has five Committees – ongoing operations in a time of COVID- the Committee on the Civil Dimension 19 as well as future moves growing out of Security; Defence and Security of the alliance's new strategy. Committee; Economics and Security NATO Chiefs of Defence elect next Committee; Political Committee; and Chairman of the Military Committee - the Science and Technology Committee Admiral Rob Bauer of the Netherlands – and eight sub-committees. Much of Armed Forces, NATO News Release, 9 the Assembly’s work is carried out by October 2020 these committees.

NATO Military Committee Gets Virtual A second round of online committee Check on Alliance Missions, US Department meetings were held from 31 August to of Defense, 21 September 2020 16 September. One of the Assembly’s Chief of the Defense Staff: Implementation key priorities was to develop its of NATO Pandemic Response Plan leads to contribution to the NATO 2030 increased states resilience, Act Media, 21 reflection process (see above). September 2020

NATO concludes defense chiefs' conference Leona Alleslev (Canada), 2020 - Revised with praise for military plans, UPI, 18 Draft Report - Defence Innovation, 3 November 2020 September 2020

NATO Chiefs of Defence enhance military NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 2020 plans, capabilities and resources, NATO Committee and Sub-Committee Revised News Release, 18 September 2020 Draft Reports: List, 19 October 2020

Press statement by Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach, Chairman of the NATO Nuclear Weapons and the TPNW

Military Committee following the Military NATO’s collective defence strategy is Committee in Chiefs of Defence Session based on a mix of nuclear, conventional Opening remarks by Air Chief Marshal Sir and missile defence capabilities. The Stuart Peach, Chairman of the NATO alliance continues to argue that its Military Committee at the start of the nuclear arrangements are fully Military Committee in Chiefs of Defence consistent with the 1968 Non- Session, 18 September 2020 Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while rejecting the 2017 Treaty on the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) as being “inconsistent with the Since being formed in 1965, the NATO alliance’s nuclear deterrence policy”. Parliamentary Assembly has provided a Both are questionable claims. forum for parliamentarians from the NATO member states to promote In a statement released on 15 debate on key security challenges, December 2020, the North Atlantic facilitate mutual understanding and Council (NAC)—NATO’s principal support national parliamentary political decision-making body oversight of defence matters. The consisting of Permanent NATO Parliamentary Assembly consists Representatives from its member of 269 delegates from the 30 NATO states—said it was opposed to TPNW, member states. Each delegation is as it does not fit in with the existing based on the country’s size. In addition security architecture. Having received to delegations from NATO member its 50th ratification in October, the states, delegates from associate treaty will enter into force on 22 countries and parliamentary observer January. As ratification was being delegations take part in Assembly triggered, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that any use of

26 nuclear weapons would have commence, we ask allies and partners "catastrophic humanitarian to refrain from joining them”. consequences". A Greenpeace study in Following a growing number of August estimated that half a million ratifications of the treaty, in October people would be killed in a nuclear this year the United States sent a letter attack on Germany. to all state parties urging them to The NAC statement argues however, withdraw their ratification. However, it that "As the Treaty on the Prohibition of is becoming clear that a growing Nuclear Weapons, or ban treaty, nears number of the non-nuclear weapon entry into force, we collectively states no longer accept the traditional reiterate our opposition to this treaty, argument of the nuclear weapon states as it does not reflect the increasingly (and NATO) that they need nuclear challenging international security weapons to preserve their security. environment and is at odds with the The TPNW requires that all ratifying existing non-proliferation and countries "never under any disarmament architecture”. NATO says circumstances … develop, test, it is still committed to strengthening produce, manufacture, otherwise arms control and non-proliferation: "We acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear call on our partners and all other weapons or other nuclear explosive countries to reflect realistically on the devices". The new treaty also bans any ban treaty's impact on international transfer, use of, or threat to use nuclear peace and security, including on the weapons, and requires parties to NPT, and join us in working to improve promote the treaty among other collective security through tangible and countries. The NATO statement also verifiable measures that can reduce argues that the TPNW lacks "any strategic risks and enable real progress rigorous or clear mechanisms for on nuclear disarmament". verification". However, the treaty defers The Nobel Prize-winning organisation, detailed verification and compliance the International Campaign to Abolish provisions for subsequent Nuclear Weapons in a Press Release on negotiation—as was the case with both 17 December 2020 described the the NPT and the treaties governing NATO statement as part of a nuclear-weapon-free zones. These “misinformation campaign” against treaties later created such measures as TPNW. IAEA safeguards, national guidelines for nuclear-related exports and other Representatives from 122 of the 193 confidence-building approaches. UN member countries voted to formally adopt the TPNW in 2017. There are Must Read: NATO HQ steps up currently 86 signatory states and 51 misinformation campaign against TPNW, ratifications, but none involving the ICAN Press Release, 17 December 2020 nuclear-armed states nor NATO Briefing Paper, NATO and the TPNW, ICAN, member states. From the outset, the December 2020 United States applied pressure on its NATO allies to boycott the process. In NATO dismisses new anti-nuclear UN treaty October 2016, for example, in an as risky, ineffective, Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2020 unclassified letter it warned NATO allies that “the effects of a nuclear NATO: U.N. anti-nuke treaty 'at odds' with weapons ban treaty could be wide existing non-proliferation efforts, UPI, 15 December 2020 ranging”. The United States also called on all allies and partners “to vote North Atlantic Council Statement as the against negotiations on a nuclear Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear weapons treaty ban, not to merely Weapons Enters into Force, NATO Press abstain. In addition, if negotiations do Release, 15 December 2020

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Tom Sauer and Claire Nardon, The NATO Annual Conference on Weapons of softening rhetoric by nuclear-armed states Mass Destruction Arms Control, and NATO allies on the Treaty on the Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, War on the Romanian MFA, 10 November 2020

Rocks, 7 December 2020

NATO Completes Annual Nuclear Exercise, Over the past four years, many Americans Arms Control Association, December 2020 have been surprised to learn that a US president can order a nuclear strike at a John Polyani, Nuclear weapons are a moment’s notice without the approval of disgrace to humanity. Banning them is the any other official. ….Allied countries may only way forward, Globe and Mail, 24 also be surprised to learn that there is no November 2020 requirement for a US president to consult Oliver Meier and Maximilian Hoell, Getting them before using a nuclear weapon in P5 strategic risk reduction right: What their defence. Even worse, the existing NATO non-nuclear-weapon states seek communications systems and from nuclear-weapon states, ELN expectations that govern the current US Commentary, 23 November 2020 procedure for authorizing nuclear use

Timothy Wright, Douglas Barrie and Nick may make it very difficult to have these Childs, A nuclear-ban treaty: a question of consultations, even if a president wanted ideals and pragmatism? Military Balance to. Blog, 20 November 2020 … NATO has an established process for member states to request a US nuclear UNIDIR NUCLEAR DIALOGUE SERIES operation, including with the remaining Lewis A. Dunn et al., The Logic of US weapons stored in Europe for NATO Strategic Arms Control (2020) use. Since the 1960s, the alliance has recommended that “special weight” be Tanya Ogilvie-White, The Logic of Nuclear given to consultation with allies on whose Deterrence (2020) territory nuclear weapons may be used— George Perkovich, The Logic of Nuclear but no member state has a veto over an Disarmament (2020) employment decision and consultation would only take place “time and John Borrie and Lewis A. Dunn, The circumstances permitting.” Strategic Context for Nuclear Disarmament, Deterrence and Strategic Must Read: Adam Mount and Pranay Vaddi, Arms Control Dialogue (2020) Better Informing a President’s Decision on Nuclear Use, Lawfare, 9 November 2020

Must Read: Alicia Sanders-Zakre, Five Common Mistakes on the Treaty on the Sara Z. Kutchesfahan, Here’s what to Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, War on the expect from Biden on top nuclear weapons Rocks, 16 November 2020 issues, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 9 November 2020 Nato Secretary General rejects UN treaty banning nuclear weapons, Army Heather Williams, What the Nuclear Ban Technology, 11 November 2020 Treaty Means for America’s Allies, War on the Rocks, 5 November 2020 ‘Safer world?’ Stoltenberg calls on international community to get rid of Must Read: Erkki Tuomioja, It is time to nukes, says NATO members should keep end our reliance on nuclear weapons, ECFR, theirs for now, RT, 10 November 2020 2 November 2020

Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens Treaty to ban nuclear weapons made Stoltenberg at the 16th Annual NATO official with 50th UN signatory, The Conference on Weapons of Mass Guardian, 25 October 2020

Destruction, Arms Control, Disarmament Pia Fuhrhop, Ulrich Kuhn and Oliver Meier, and Non-Proliferation, 10 November 2020 Creating an Opportunity to Withdraw U.S.

Ulrich Kühn, Perceptions in the Euro- Nuclear Weapons From Europe, Arms Atlantic, UNIDIR Nuclear Risk Reduction Control Association, October 2020 Policy Brief No. 3, 2020

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Secret NATO drills: German Air Force trains Humanitarian impacts and risks of use of in the event of nuclear war?, 112 nuclear weapons, International Committee International, 19 October 2020 of the Red Cross (ICRC), 29 August 2020

Secretary General visits Dutch airbase Julia Berghofer, An offer postponed: hosting NATO deterrence exercise, NATO Berlin’s silence on Macron’s deterrence News Release, 16 October 2020 thinking, ELN Commentary, 25 August

2020

This open letter in support of the 2017 Barbara Kunz, Switching Umbrellas in Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Berlin? The Implications of Franco-German Weapons has been signed by 56 former Nuclear Cooperation, The Washington presidents, prime ministers, foreign Quarterly, vol. 43 no3, 2020, pp.63-77 ministers and defence ministers from

20 NATO member states, as well as Operations and Missions Japan and South Korea. All of these states currently claim protection from Afghanistan US nuclear weapons and have not yet joined the treaty. The letter will be sent At the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting to the current leaders of these states. in December (see above) the ministers The co-signers include the former UN reaffirmed their commitment to the secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and two Resolute Support Mission (RSM) as well former NATO secretaries-general, Javier as their commitment to finance the Solana and Willy Claes. Afghan forces through to 2024. RSM was launched shortly after the Open Letter in Support of the 2017 Treaty completion of the International Security on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 21 Assistance Force (ISAF) in 2014 and was September 2020 designed to provide follow-on noncombat support to train, advise and Former World Leaders Urge Ratification of Nuclear Arms Ban Treaty, New York Times, assist Afghan security forces and 20 September 2020 government institutions to take on primary responsibility for the country’s 56 former leaders and ministers of US allies national security. urge states to join the nuclear weapon ban treaty, ICAN, 21 September 2020 The ministers also discussed the

The U.S. Nuclear Presence in Western impact of the US decision to reduce its Europe, 1954-1962, Part II, National troop numbers to 2,500 on the Security Archive, 16 September 2020 objectives and capabilities of the RSM. • JFK Wondered Whether Control of U.S. It was concluded that the mission is Nuclear Weapons Assigned to NATO able to function and carry out its tasks, Allies “Actually Conformed to Law” but NATO will continue to assess the • Italian Government Wanted “Control situation and members will have to in the Use” of Any Nuclear Weapon on make further decisions in February its Territory 2021, when NATO defence ministers • U.S. Sought Permissive Action Links will meet. The Secretary General [PALs] to Prevent “an Ally Seizing a indicated that NATO faced a turning Weapon” or “a Psychotic Attempt to point early next year– whether to stay Fire One” in Afghanistan and risk continued Pavel Karasev, Cybersecurity and NATO’s fighting and an even longer-term Nuclear Capability, Modern Diplomacy, 6 engagement, or leave and risk that the September 2020 country becomes once again “a safe Madeline Zutt and Michal Onderco, How haven for international terrorists”. emerging technologies impact the future of “Whatever we decide, we must do it in a nuclear risk and arms control, ELN coordinated and orderly way,” he Commentary, 1 September 2020 stressed.

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Australian war crimes inquiry

The case for withdrawal and ending the Elite Australian soldiers allegedly US/NATO involvement in Afghanistan is committed over 36 war crimes, made forcefully here. For an including murder and cruel treatment assessment of what has improved over of non-combatants, in Afghanistan the 20 years, as well as what is still between 2009 and 2013, according to going wrong, and the case for an official report by the Inspector maintaining a credible NATO force, General of the Australian Defence read this. Forces. The report refers to one heavily redacted incident as “possibly the most In February 2020 the Taliban and the disgraceful episode in Australia’s United States reached an agreement military history”. For an overview of the (without the involvement of other inquiry, see here. NATO allies or the Afghan government) that all foreign troops should leave In First, NATO Forces Now Outnumber US Afghanistan by 1 May 2021 if security Troops in Afghanistan, Military.com, 21 December 2020 conditions on the ground permit. That eventually led to the start of intra- Jonathan Schroden, Afghanistan Will Be the Afghan talks in Doha in September. Biden Administration’s First Foreign Policy However, attacks by the Taliban and Crisis, Lawfare, 20 December 2020 other extremist groups have continued NATO supports Afghan forces with to take place. hundreds of tons of pharmaceutical

At the beginning of December the supplies, NATO News Release, 11 December 2020 Taliban and the Afghan Government agreed on rules for negotiations, North Atlantic Council statement on the marking the end of a months-long Afghanistan Peace Negotiations, Press Release, 9 December 2020 impasse, and a step that NATO has welcomed. The hope is that this will Barnett R. Rubin, There is only one way out lead to agreement on a political of Afghanistan. And it requires cooperating roadmap and a comprehensive with regional powers, Foreign Affairs, 9 ceasefire. December 2020

In the meantime, despite the Afghan drawdown set, but Biden will have final say: Milley, Asia Times, 4 December drawdown in US forces, the 2020 Secretary General expressed confidence that the remaining US Must Read: Andrea Mazzarino, Ready or Not, Here They Come: A Military Spouse’s military contribution and other Perspective on Bringing the Troops Home allied contributions would be from Afghanistan and Iraq, TomDispatch, 3 sufficient to continue the mission. December 2020

NATO now has around 11,000 troops in Lorne Cook, NATO mulls Afghan dilemma Afghanistan from multiple member as US draws down, attacks mount, states and partner nations, including Associated Press, 30 November 2020 the United States. The alliance relies Must Read: Kathy Kelly, Biden wants more heavily on the US armed forces for air “Special Ops” in Afghanistan, threatening to support, transport, intelligence and prolong the war, Truthout, 30 November logistics. US forces in Afghanistan have 2020 begun a planned drawdown of troops from 4,500 to 2,500 by 15 January NATO Secretary General addresses 2020 Afghanistan Conference, NATO News under orders from President Donald Release, 24 November 2020 Trump, but final decisions on the continuing presence there will be taken Murray Brewster, NATO holds its breath as by the incoming Biden administration. Trump plans for January withdrawal from Afghanistan, CBC, 24 November 2020

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Andrew Bacevich, A Good Deed from the Business in discarded US military goods is Wicked Witch?: Actually Ending the War in booming as Kandahar base empties out, Afghanistan, TomDispatch, 24 November Stars and Stripes, 1 November 2020 2020 Afghan Women’s Rights not Negotiable: Australian special forces involved in NATO Envoy, Tolo News, 31 October 2020 murder of 39 Afghan civilians, war crimes Feyyaz Barış Çelik, Foreign policy decision- report alleges, The Guardian, 19 November 2020 making in operational overlap: the UK’s policing assistance in Afghanistan through 'A long time for justice': Afghans wait for the EU and NATO, European Security, vol. Australia to right the wrongs of its war, The 29 no.4, 2020, pp.456-482 Guardian, 19 November 2020 Afghan National Army prepares to take over Key findings of the Brereton report into key officer-training facility; celebrates links allegations of Australian war crimes in with NATO trainers, NATO News Release, Afghanistan, The Guardian, 19 November 21 October 2020 2020 NATO chief says conditions will determine Afghanistan: NATO girds for US troop alliance’s Afghanistan exit, Military Times, withdrawal, Deutsche Welle, 18 November 21 October 2020 2020 NATO Allies and partners reaffirm their Tia Sewell, Where’s the U.S. Strategy for commitment of financial support for Counternarcotics in Afghanistan? Lawfare, sustainable Afghan security forces, NATO 18 November 2020 News Release, 19 October 2020

Daniel Knowles, Will the Taliban get back Corruption, conflict and a common enemy: into government in Afghanistan?, The Can old Afghan opponents come together Economist, 17 November 2020 to make peace?, NBC News, 18 October 2020 NATO chief warns against premature withdrawal from Afghanistan, CNN, 17 NATO Chief: We Will Leave Afghanistan November 2020 ‘When the Time Is Right’, AntiWar,com, 9 October 2020 Andrew Bacevich and Adam Weinstein, Trump demands Afghan withdrawal and NATO-EU Affirms Continued Cooperation to Washington panics. But it’s time to leave, Afghanistan ‘Long-Term Stability’, Khaama now, The Quincy Institute, 17 November Press, 27 September 2020 2020 Witnesses: Afghan government airstrikes U.S. troops are packing up, ready or not, kill 24 civilians, Star Tribune, 20 September New York Times, 17 November 2020 2020

NATO, acting US Pentagon chief discuss US delivers four aircraft to the Afghan Air Afghanistan, ABC News, 16 November Force, as part of NATO continued support 2020 to the Afghan security forces, NATO News Release, 18 September 2020 Afghanistan troop withdrawal: NATO staying as long as necessary, Deutsche UN, OIC, NATO hail push for peace in Welle, 16 November 2020 Afghanistan, Anadolu Agency, 12 September 2020 Inquiry into alleged war crimes by Australian special forces in Afghanistan Sewage from US Embassy, NATO delivers final report, The Guardian, 6 headquarters dumped into Kabul River due November 2020 to aging infrastructure, Stars and Stripes, 12 September 2020 Insurgent attacks jeopardize peace efforts and US troop withdrawal in Afghanistan, North Atlantic Council Statement on watchdog agency says, Stars and Stripes, 5 Afghanistan, NATO Press Release, 12 November 2020 September 2020

HR key to continued global aid: NATO chief, NATO welcomes the start of Afghan peace Pajhwok, 3 November 2020 negotiations in Doha, NATO News Release, 12 September 2020

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Must Read: Christoph Hasselbach, mission is roughly 500 personnel, but Opinion: Let Afghanistan be a lesson to US, the Secretary General said that it was NATO, Deutsche Welle, 11 September 2020 too early to say anything exact about Afghan National Army Officers Academy the size of the enhanced mission, “but graduates its 5000th officer, NATO News it will be significantly larger than the Release, 10 September 2020 current mission”. Detailed planning for

Karen Elphick, The Inspector-General of the mission has started and a new the Australian Defence Force Afghanistan operational plan is expected to be Inquiry (Brereton Inquiry): a quick guide, agreed at the NATO defence ministerial Australian Parliamentary Library, 3 meeting in February 2021. September 2020 Denmark assumes command of NATO Abdul Sayed, Who Is the New Leader of Mission Iraq, NATO News Release, 25 Islamic State-Khorasan Province? Lawfare, 2 November 2020 September 2020 NATO to reinforce Iraq mission, New Age, Afghanistan Frees Nearly 200 Taliban 24 October 2020 Prisoners to Push Peace Talks, New York Times, 2 September 2020 Secretary General welcomes Iraqi Foreign Minister at NATO Headquarters, NATO News Release, 16 September 2020 Iraq

At the NATO Summit in Brussels in July Kosovo

2018, the NATO Mission Iraq was Two decades after the withdrawal of launched following a request from the Serbian forces, Kosovo's security is still Iraqi government. The new, non- guaranteed by 4,000 NATO troops, combat training and advisory mission known as KFOR. was established in Baghdad in October 2018. At their meeting in February Kosovo’s Army Is Ready for NATO, Acting 2020, NATO Defence Ministers President Says, Exit News, 31 December reaffirmed their support to Iraq and 2020 agreed to enhance NATO’s role. Due to Virus changes work, not goal, of Kosovo’s the security situation and the COVID-19 NATO peacekeepers, Associated Press, 25 health crisis in spring 2020, NATO December 2020 Mission Iraq had to temporarily Serbeze Haxhiaj, Peacekeeping Politics: An suspend some activities and relocate Insider’s View of NATO’s Kosovo Mission, personnel outside Iraq. However, the Balkan Insight, 25 September 2020 mission is now rebuilding its capacity in Baghdad and planning for NATO’s Majda Ruge, Trump’s Kosovo show: No big deal, ECFR Commentary, 10 September future engagement. The planning is 2020 conducted in close coordination and consultation with the Global Coalition Stoltenberg and Hoti talked about regional to Defeat ISIS/Daesh and the Iraqi security in NATO HQ, European Western Balkans, 9 September 2020 government. NATO Secretary General discusses regional At the NATO Defence Ministers meeting security with Kosovo’s Avdullah Hoti, NATO in October (see above), the NATO News Release, 8 September 2020 Secretary General acknowledged that the security situation in Iraq remains KFOR requests international assistance in challenging, but that the alliance had their response to COVID-19, NATO News Release, 7 September 2020 “tasked our military commanders to expand our mission in Iraq”. He also Ewa Mahr, Differences in the local confirmed that the mission was almost perception of EULEX and KFOR in their at full capacity again with some of the security-related tasks, European Security 2020 trainers and personnel having moved back into Iraq. The size of the current

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Russia-NATO relations Recommendations from an experts’ Relations between Russia and NATO dialogue for de-escalating NATO- have deteriorated to record post-Cold Russia military risks War lows. Both sides have competing The European Leadership Network explanations for this. Within the (ELN) has supported an extended series alliance, there remain disagreements of detailed senior expert discussions about the nature of the Russian threat on how NATO and Russia might reduce and how to respond to it. the risk of inadvertent conflict. The 30- In September NATO Secretary General member expert group included retired Jens Stoltenberg condemned the diplomats and military officers from the poisoning of Russian opposition United States, Russia and Europe. The politician Alexei Navalny. He called on recommendations from these Russia to cooperate with an discussions, signed by 145 people investigation by the Organization for from 20 countries, call on leaders in the the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, US, Russia and Europe to demonstrate adding that the incident “is a blatant the political will necessary to take a violation of international law [that] number of urgent actions in order to requires an international response”. reduce the risks of military conflict: German doctors subsequently said that 1. Re-establishing practical dialogue they have “unequivocal evidence” that between Russia and NATO, including Navalny was poisoned by a chemical direct contacts between the military nerve agent called Novichok, which the commanders and experts of Russia Russian government also used against and NATO member states. Russian double agent Sergei Skripal 2. Developing common rules that will and his daughter in the UK in 2018. reduce the risk of unintended incidents on land, air and sea. NATO air forces across Europe scrambled more than 400 times in 3. Enhancing stability by increasing 2020 to intercept unknown aircraft transparency, avoiding dangerous military activities, and providing approaching alliance airspace. Almost dedicated communication channels 90% of these missions - around 350 - that would avoid escalation of were in response to flights by Russian incidents that might occur. military aircraft. This is a moderate 4. Utilizing (and possibly supplementing) increase from 2019. the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding In December it was announced that the Act to codify restraint, transparency Russian navy will participate in an and confidence-building measures. execise with NATO countries for the 5. Exploring possible limitations on first time in 10 years. The Black Sea NATO and Russian conventional force Fleet will be representing Russia in the deployments in Europe to enhance Aman-2021 exercise that is due to take transparency and stability. place in February 2021 off the coast of 6. Establishing consultations between Pakistan. This is a key event for the Russia and US/NATO on the topics of possible improvement of Russian intermediate-range missiles and relations with NATO countries. ballistic missile defence, in order to prevent a new nuclear missile race in NATO intercepts hundreds of Russian Europe. military jets in 2020, NATO News Release, 7. Preserving the Open Skies Treaty. 28 December 2020 Recommendations of the Participants Emil Avdaliani, Biden and Russia: Pressure, of the Expert Dialogue on NATO-Russia But Not Too Much, BESA Center Military Risk Reduction in Europe, ELN, Perspectives Paper No. 1,858, 28 December December 2020 2020

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Russia’s General Staff notes NATO’s Russia’s armed forces: more capable by far, growing provocations near Russian but for how long? IISS Military Balance Blog, borders, TASS, 24 December 2020 9 October 2020

Craig Kennedy and Gary Schmit, A tale of Moscow concerned over NATO’s military two Europes, The Hill, 23 December 2020 activity near Russian borders in Baltic Sea region, TASS, 9 October 2020 Amelie Theussen and Dominika Kunertova, Nato-Russia tensions: what a Biden Russia, NATO increase military presence in administration can do to lower the the Baltic region, 112 international, 5 temperature, The Conversation, 21 October 2020 December 2020 MK Bhadrakumar, Russia’s response to Mark Episkopos, Russia's S-400: The Air expansion of NATO to its doorstep, Asia Defense System NATO Fears Most? National Times, 3 October 2020 Interest, 16 December 2020 Petr Topychkanov, Russia’s nuclear Pakistan to host historic naval drills doctrine moves the focus from non-Western between Russia & NATO countries as part threats, SIPRI Commentary, 1 October 2020 of AMAN-2021 Anti Piracy Exercise, Eurasia Peter Suciu, Russia Claims NATO Military Times, 11 December 2020 Activity Observed Near the Border, National Russia says it will join drills with NATO Interest, 30 September 2020 member ships off Pakistan, Reuters, 10 Roger McDermott, Russia’s Armed Forces December 2020 Test UAV Swarm Tactics in Kavkaz 2020, Baltic Fleet to set up new division in Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: response to NATO’s build-up near Russian 136, 30 September 2020 borders, TASS, 7 December 2020 Russian military says US and NATO flights Sergey Rogov, Adam Thomson and near Crimea fuel tensions, Military Times, Alexander Vershbow, A New Path Forward 20 September 2020 for NATO and Russia, Russia Matters, 7 NATO's new Atlantic Command tasked with December 2020 countering an increasingly assertive Russia, Tom Burge, Russia’s Clandestine Chemical Stars and Stripes, 18 September 2020 Weapons Programme: The Bellingcat Roger McDermott, Russian Fighter Jets Exposure, RUSI Commentary, 3 December Intercept US Strategic Bombers, Eurasia 2020 Daily Monitor, 16 September 2020 Are Russia & China taking a lead from Steven Keil and Michael Kimmage, Russia NATO & working to develop a joint nuclear after the Coronavirus Crisis, GMF powered aircraft carrier? Eurasian Times, September 2020 29 November 2020 Inside the Gorbachev-Bush “Partnership” on Putin Says NATO Ignored Russian Pleas to the First Gulf War 1990, National Security Reduce Military Activity During COVID, Archive, 9 September 2020 Newsweek, 10 November 2020 Russia alarmed by large increase of NATO F-35 gives European air forces an edge over spy flights, Defence Blog, 9 September Russia, but coordination is key, Flight 2020 Global, 6 November 2020 NATO jets have changed war-game tactics, Emmanuel Dreyfus, Emulation and Military now routinely simulate MISSILE STRIKES Change in Russia, Russia Matters, 23 against Russia – Defense Minister Shoigu, October 2020 RT, 7 September 2020 NATO seeks ways of protecting undersea NATO plans to redeploy more US forces to cables from Russian attacks, Euractive, 22 Poland, says Russian defense minister, October 2020 TASS, 5 September 2020 Jessica Brandt and Amber Frankland, Leaks, NATO demands Russia explain attack on Lies, and Altered Tape: Russia’s Maturing Alexei Navalny, Politico, 4 September 2020 Information Manipulation Playbook, GMF Alliance for Securing Democracy, 14 October 2020

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NATO Calls Navalny Attack ‘Appalling’ as 48FW, 352 SOW participate in exercise with Alliance Weighs Response, Bloomberg, 4 NATO nations, DVIDS, 6 November 2020 September 2020 Moldovans Take Lead of SF Operations at Statement by the North Atlantic Council on Saber Junction 20, DVIDS, 8 September the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, NATO 2020 Press Release, 4 September 2020

North Atlantic Council meets to address Space Policy assassination attempt on Alexey Navalny, NATO News Release, 4 September 2020 At the NATO Leaders’ Meeting in London in December 2019, space was NATO chief calls for 'international response' over Alexei Navalny poisoning, declared as an operational domain Deutsche Welle, 3 September 2020 alongside land, air and sea. This allows space to be used for military operations Russian jet follows US B-52 into NATO during times of war. At the NATO airspace in 'significant violation,' allies say, Defence Ministers Meeting in October Stars and Stripes, 1 September 2020 (see above) it was announced that Daniel R DePetris, Expanding Nato NATO plans to build a new space centre threatens further Russian tension, Letter at the US Air Force base in Ramstein, FT, 31 August 2020 Germany. The new space base will join

with the NATO Allied Air Command Special Forces (AIRCOM) in Ramstein and will “help to coordinate Allied space activities; A new special operations site that will support NATO missions and operations allow elite US troops to expand from space, including with operations in the Baltic region is up and communications and satellite imagery; running in the Latvian capital of Riga, and protect Allied space systems by military officials said in December. The sharing information about potential United States contributed $3.7 million threats”. to the project through the European Deterrence Initiative, the Pentagon The base at Ramstein currently serves programme that funds efforts aimed at as headquarters for the United States preventing Russian aggression on Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa NATO’s eastern flank. Also in (USAFE-AFAFRICA) and also for NATO December, Belgium, Denmark, and the AIRCOM. It has been used by the US Air Netherlands declared their Composite Force since 1953 and by NATO since Special Operations Component 1974.

Command (C-SOCC) headquarters as The development of a NATO Space fully operational. The C-SOCC Centre move comes nearly one year combines national capabilities from the after the US military established the three participating nations into a Space Force as a separate military deployable multinational headquarters, branch. Around 2,400 satellites orbit specifically designed for commanding the Earth, with about 60% belonging to several Special Operations Forces task the 30 NATO member states or groups. companies located there. The Secretary

Composite Special Operations Component General highlighted that NATO is Command reaches full operational determined to keep its cutting edge in capability, NATO News Release, 7 all domains: land, sea, air, cyber and December 2020 space. “Space is essential for our ability

New US special operations site activated in to navigate, communicate, and detect heart of the Baltics, Stars and Stripes, 3 missile launches. And fast, effective December 2020 and secure satellite communications are vital for our troops”, he said. While US special forces take part in joint exercise highlighting that some nations— in Estonia, ERR News, 28 November 2020 including Russia and China—are

35 developing systems which could “blind, Transatlantic Cooperation disable or shoot down satellites”, the According to the latest Pew Research Secretary General stressed that NATO’s Centre survey, NATO is seen more aim “is not to militarise space”, but to favourably than not across 10 member increase the alliance’s “awareness of states and Sweden. A median of 60% challenges in space, and our ability to across these 10 countries have a deal with them”. favourable view of the political and However, given that NATO missions military alliance, compared with a and operations, including in median of 30% who have an Afghanistan, Kosovo and the Enhanced unfavourable opinion. This is in Forward Presence in eastern Europe, keeping with previous Pew Research are highly dependent on space-based Center surveys, which found that NATO assets such as communications and was seen in a favourable light across satellite imagery, then these assets are most member countries. clearly going to be targeted by any Moira Fagan, NATO seen in a positive light adversary, which also means they by many across 10 member states, Pew contribute to a de facto militarisation of Research Center, 30 November 2020 space.

Still undecided, meanwhile, is the location of a NATO Centre of Excellence (CoE) devoted to military space where analysts would study concepts and develop doctrine. There are currently 26 NATO-accredited CoEs that train and educate leaders and specialists from NATO member and partner countries on a range of topics from crisis management and disaster response to strategic communications. France and Germany have both lobbied to host such an organization devoted to space policy

New space center at Ramstein is part of NATO's push to protect military infrastructure, Stars and Stripes, 22 October 2020

NATO to set up new space center amid China, Russia concerns, ABC News, 20 October 2020

Ramstein Air Base to host new NATO space center, Defense News, 20 October 2020

Ramstein Air Base to house new NATO space center, Stars and Stripes, 19 October 2020

NATO plans new space center in Ramstein, Germany, Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2020 Jedidiah Royal, Team Biden, Pay Attention Meet Laryssa Patten, an engineer working to European Dust-Up Over NATO, 30 to keep NATO’s technological edge in December 2020 space, NATO News Release, 9 October Karen Donfried, Overcoming Transatlantic 2020 Division, Deutsche Welle, 15 December 2020

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Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, A New Transatlantic Bargain: An Action Plan Anthony Dworkin, Ellie Geranmayeh, Mark for Transformation, Not Restoration, Leonard, Theodore Murphy, Janka Oertel, European Council on Foreign Relations Nicu Popescu and Tara Varma, Policy Brief, November 2020

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Andrew Cottey, Trump, Biden, Europe: Red adoption 20 years ago represented a America, Blue America and the significant political shift for NATO. We Transatlantic Relationship, Irish are moving beyond words, as we Association for Contemporary European establish and implement an ambitious Studies (IACES) blog, 17 November 2020 but achievable agenda. The work done

through the NATO Science for Peace and Transparency and Accountability Security Programme is an important part of how NATO achieves results. Openness and transparency are meant to be integral features of the shared A November report by the NATO values within the alliance, but this is Parliamentary Assembly takes stock of rarely reflected in the way that NATO the progress achieved in advancing the operates in practice. See, for example, implementation of the resolution in the this discussion on a NATO assessment Euro-Atlantic area and beyond and of Denmark’s military forces and its identifies remaining challenges. First, record in meeting alliance the report discusses efforts to ensure commitments. Although the Danish the equal participation of women and Ministry of Defence published the men in the peace and security sphere. document online none of the Second, it examines the measures assessments for the other 29 NATO adopted by the UN, NATO, NATO PA member states have been made public. and other members of the international The Danish document raises important community to prevent conflict-related questions about national sovereignty, gender-based and sexual violence and decision-making and transparency better protect women. Finally, the within NATO. report highlights the indispensable role played by women in relief and recovery contexts in post-conflict countries. Robert Fisk, ‘Journalists must always fight spin’, The Independent, 17 January The report argues that addressing 2000 gender inequality and integrating WPS

Following the death of Robert Fisk on 30 priorities throughout NATO’s three October 2020, The Independent has essential core tasks of collective reproduced some of his best dispatches defence, crisis management and from 30 years of reporting cooperative security should remain at

the top of NATO’s agenda. It offers a IBAN virtual meeting with representatives series of recommendations for further of the Competent National Audit Bodies, advancing the WPS agenda. NATO News Release, 27 November 2020

NATO’s bullying of Denmark raises Ulla SCHMIDT (Germany), General Report - uncomfortable sovereignty and Advancing the Women, Peace and Security transparency concerns, NATO Watch, 2 Agenda, Committee on the Civil Dimension November 2020 of Security, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 20 November 2020

Women, Peace and Security Are we there yet? Implementing the Women, Peace and Security agenda: if not 2020 marked the 20th anniversary of now, when? Thoughts from Clare the unanimous adoption of United Hutchinson, the Secretary General’s Special Nations Security Council Resolution Representative for Women, Peace and Security, NATO, 16 November 2020 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS). In a news release in October the NATO marks achievements on gender- NATO Secretary General’s Special related issues, NATO News Release, 26 October 2020 Representative for Women, Peace and Security, Clare Hutchinson said: NATO and Women, Peace and Security:

UNSCR 1325 is the foundation of the Strength is in gender diversity and equality, NATO News Release, 15 October 2020 Women, Peace and Security agenda. Its

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Canada Security News from NATO Member States: Battle diary: a Canadian soldier looks back on a year commanding NATO troops in Iraq, CBC News, 19 December 2020 Albania Western grad among youth leaders On 28 December 2020, the Albanian advising on the future of NATO, CBC, 12 Ministry of Defence received 60 sets of November 2020 ventilator consumables donated by the Alumnus selected to help shape future of NATO Pandemic Response Trust Fund. NATO, Western News, 11 November 2020

Coronavirus Response: NATO delivers Douglas Roche, Canada can’t hide behind ventilators to Albania, NATO News Release, NATO in refusal to sign treaty on nuclear 29 December 2020 weapons prohibition, Hill Times, 21 September 2020 NATO delivers ventilators to Albania, NATO News Release, 21 October 2020 Canada's special forces seek outside intelligence advice, CBC, 17 September 2020 Bulgaria Canadian CF-188 jets start enhanced air In September US military forces were policing mission in Romania, NATO News involved in a weeklong exercise with Release, 4 September 2020 Bulgarian, Greek and Romanian air forces along NATO’s southern flank. Croatia The exercise—Thracian Viper 20—took place at the Graf Ignatievo Air Base in Students graduate from Multinational central Bulgaria. Special Aviation Programme Training Centre in Croatia, NATO News Release, 30 In October a $30.2 million project for October 2020 the acquisition of new armoured vehicles of various classes for the Czech Republic needs of Bulgaria's special operations forces was approved by defence The Czech Republic will not fulfil its minister Krasimir Karakachanov. The pledge to NATO to spend 2% of its armoured vehicles will be built in gross domestic product on defence by Bulgaria and the project envisages the the year 2024, Finance Minister Alena purchase of between 50 and 100 Schillerová said in September. armoured vehicles, to be delivered in the period 2021-23. Ondrej Ditrych, ‘Who Let the Dogs Out’: The Czech Intelligence Service Annual Report Bulgaria to expel another Russian diplomat and the Challenges of Discussing Threats in suspected of spying, Al Jazeera, 18 a Postfactual Age, RUSI Commentary, 4 December 2020 December 2020

Bulgaria to spend 25.6 mln euro on Young Czech Scientist to Advise Head of armoured vehicles for special forces, See NATO, Prague Morning, 12 November 2020 News, 20 October 2020 Czech Republic to Allow 300 Military USAF F-16s to Police Bulgaria’s Skies for Medical Personnel From NATO and EU to NATO, Air Force Magazine, 28 September Help with COVID, National Herald, 29 2020 October 2020

31st Fighter Wing hones skills during NATO delivers ventilators to the Czech exercise with NATO allies in Bulgaria, Stars Republic, NATO News Release, 27 October and Stripes, 24 September 2020 2020

Czechs will not meet pledge to NATO by 2024, FinMin says, Budapest Business Journal, 25 September 2020

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Denmark NATO Defence Planning Capability Review 2019/2020, Denmark, Overview, C- A scathing six-page NATO assessment M(2020)0026 (DK-OVERVIEW), 14 October of Denmark’s military forces and its 2020 record in meeting alliance Denmark to open embassy in Iraq this commitments was published online by autumn before taking NATO mission lead, the Danish Ministry of Defence. The Rudaw, 11 September 2020 document dated 14 October 2020 is an ‘overview’ of Denmark’s performance in meeting metrics associated with a Estonia

‘NATO Defence Planning Capability Interview | Defense minister on Estonia's Review 2019/2020’. Presumably, NATO experience now and in future, ERR similar assessments have been made News, 29 November 2020 for the other 29 NATO member states, US special forces praise success of joint but none appear to have been weekend Estonia exercise, ERR News, 17 published so far. November 2020

The document concludes that Danish Air Chief Marshal Peach commends Estonia and NATO military priorities are for all of its contributions to the Alliance, NATO News Release, 29 October 2020 “misaligned” and outlines three main areas where Denmark must Estonian president at NATO: Security immediately tighten up: “numerous ambition level must not be lowered, Baltic critical quantitative and qualitative Times, 8 October 2020 limitations” in a supposedly battle- NATO Secretary General thanks Estonia for ready brigade of 4,000 soldiers, and supporting Allies and partners throughout shortfalls in anti-submarine and signal the COVID-19 pandemic, NATO News intelligence capabilities. "The lack of Release, 8 October 2020 progress since the previous Capability

Review is of concern”, the document France says, adding that “Denmark needs to further increase its defence spending in The French government launched an order to fully implement all of its NATO investigation after a “senior French Capability Targets”. It warns that until officer” was arrested and accused of a it does so, “other Allies may potentially “security breach”, Armed Forces have to pick up part of Denmark’s fair Minister Florence Parly said. According share of the alliance burden”. The US to media reports, the accused officer embassy in Denmark was quick to was a lieutenant-colonel stationed with highlight the NATO findings in a NATO in Italy. presumably pre-planned news release. The NATO Helicopter Management Agency, acting on behalf of France, has For further details see: NATO’s bullying signed a production contract with NHI of Denmark raises uncomfortable Industries for 10 NH90 Tactical Troop sovereignty and transparency concerns, Helicopters, upgraded to meet the NATO Watch Comment, 2 November requirements of the French special 2020 forces. The first five will be delivered in 2025 and the last five in 2026, and will Denmark opened an embassy in bring the total number of these aircraft Baghdad in the autumn before it took in the French army to 74. the helm of NATO's anti-Islamic State (ISIS) mission in Iraq in December. The France is to start research into NATO training mission in Iraq began in 'enhanced soldiers' it was announced in October 2018 and was previously led December. This will include research on by Canada. implants that could "improve cerebral capacity" or help soldiers tell enemy

40 from ally. These could also allow Teoman Ertuğrul Tulun, France ceaselessly commanders to locate them or read wearing down NATO, Hurriyet Daily News, their vital signs from a distance. 5 September 2020

Facebook announced in December that French NATO Officer Arrested, Accused of people tied to the French military used Spying for Russia, SOFREP, 1 September 2020 its platform to interfere in African politics. French and Russian accounts French spying: Senior army officer targeted politics in the Central African investigated, BBC News, 30 August 2020

Republic, Libya, Sudan and Syria by posing as natives of Africa. Shelby Germany Grossman, at the Stanford Internet Observatory, said that “the operation In July, the Trump administration worked aggressively to undermine announced plans to move 11,900 Libya’s peace process”. NATO regularly troops out of Germany, 5,600 of which accuses China and Russia of foreign would relocate to other European interference in politics. countries, with 6,400 returning to the United States. The partial withdrawal French and Russian trolls wrestle for was criticized by officials and influence in Africa, Facebook says, Reuters, parliamentarians in both the US and 15 December 2020 Europe. After the withdrawal there will France to start research into 'enhanced still be 24,000 US forces in Germany— soldiers', BBC News, 9 December 2020 more than in any other country except

NATO - Jean-Yves Le Drian’s participation in Japan and South Korea—and over the Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign 51,000 on the European continent. (At Affairs (video conference, 1 and 2 the height of the Cold War, the US December 2020), French Ministry of military had nearly 300,000 troops Foreign Affairs stationed in Europe.)

Macron criticises Turkey's 'imperial inclinations' as row between countries President Trump’s recent escalates, The Guardian, 1 November 2020 announcement of large troop reductions in Germany should be seen Macron accuses Turkey of 'bellicose' attitude towards Nato allies, Middle East for what it is: a potentially deadly blow Eye, 31 October 2020 to NATO’s solidarity. The decision, reportedly made without notification or France recalls envoy after Turkey scolds consultation with the German Macron over Muslims, Reuters, 24 October government, allies, Congress or the 2020 Pentagon, was supposedly driven by Patrick Chevallereau, Constants and Germany’s failure to pay its “fair share.” Changes in France’s Arms Export Strategy, The fallout will shake NATO to its core. RUSI Commentary, 19 October 2020 R.D. Hooker, A Potentially Deadly Blow to NATO contracts for upgraded NH90 TTH NATO, Defense One, 29 September 2020 for French Special Forces, Vertical Magazine, 12 October 2020 At a December debate in Cologne about France orders beefed-up NH90 choppers technology in future warfare, NATO for special operations, Defense News, 12 Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg October 2020 expressed his support for armed Sasha Toperich, Is it Macron — not Trump drones as a way of protecting soldiers’ — who's breaking the NATO alliance? The lives on the battlefield. Stoltenberg said Hill, 3 October 2020 that NATO would use armed drones in

NATO Secretary General discusses security line with international law as an extra issues with French Foreign Minister Le layer of support for soldiers on the Drian, NATO News Release, 21 September front line. “These drones can support 2020 forces on the ground and reduce the

41 number of pilots we send in harm’s Pat Elder, NATO Poisoning Fish in Germany, way,” he was quoted as saying. His LA Progressive, 14 September 2020 comments overlapped with a debate Germany's long military mission in within the German coalition Afghanistan, Deutsche Welle, 11 government (CDU, CSU and SPD September 2020 parties) on whether armed drones NATO and AGS: Its Impact on the German should be allowed. The debate has Airborne SIGINT Decision, SLDinfo, 30 focused heavily on whether the German August 2020 armed forces should lease Heron drones equipped with missiles from Greece Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). Fourteen countries, including the Greece is at loggerheads with Turkey United States and Australia, have over rights to resources in the eastern acquired the Heron drones. Mediterranean Sea (see above). In

Josh Spires NATO secretary general says September Greece outlined plans to he’s in favor of armed drones DroneDJ, 24 upgrade the country's defence December 2020 capabilities, including purchasing new

Thomas O.Falk, NATO Secretary-General fighter planes, frigates, helicopters and Stoltenberg Calls out Germany Over weapons systems. In an annual state of Drones, European Views, 24 December the economy speech, Prime Minister 2020 Kyriakos Mitsotakis said Greece would obtain 18 new French-made Rafale Sebastian Sprenger, NATO chief wades into fighter planes to replace its aging fiery German debate on armed drones, Defense News, 24 December 2020 Mirage 2000 fighters, buy four navy helicopters and four new frigates and Lydia Wachs, The Latecomer: Germany's was refurbishing another four frigates. Debate on Armed Drones, RUSI The armed forces will also obtain new Commentary, 11 December 2020 anti-tank weapons, new torpedoes and Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, The United new guided missiles, as well as recruit States’ Reassessment of its Global Role is 15,000 more people over the next five Creating a Strategic Crisis for Germany, years, he said. GMF Transatlantic Take, 10 November 2020 The annual military cooperation

Jantje Silomon, The Düsseldorf Cyber exercise between Greece and the USA, Incident, Institute for Peace Research and ‘Stolen Cerberus’, was conducted Security Policy, 30 September 2020 during 8-20 September. Participating were the personnel of the special NATO's at risk if you go your own Huawei operations units and special forces of on 5G, US government warns Germany, The Register, 29 September 2020 the three branches (Army, Navy and Air Force) of the Greek Armed Forces and NATO Commitment Forces Germany To the US Air Force in Europe as well as Acquire F-18 Super Hornets & Reduce one Air Force C-130 and three US Air C- Number Of Typhoons, Eurasian Times, 26 130s. In November the Greek September 2020 Government announced the creation of Germany replaces military intelligence boss the Special Warfare Command, which is after far-right scandals, Reuters, 24 a new military formation to include September 2020 Special Forces and guided by US and Germany Dismisses Military Intelligence NATO standards. Official After Neo-Nazi Scandals, New York Times, 24 September 2020 Also in November, troops from Germany, Greece, the Netherlands and John Laforge, Germany: US Nuclear the United States carried out a NATO air Weapons Shamed in Nationwide Debate, defence exercise, ‘Missile Firing Counter Punch, 18 September 2020 Installation 2020’ in Greece.

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Greek military establishes Special Warfare Italy Command with focus on unorthodox war, Greek City Times, 25 November 2020 Researchers from the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and the National Flights and overflights, Ekathimerini, 21 Interuniversity Consortium for November 2020 Environmental Sciences (CINSA) will US Soldiers, NATO Troops Take Part in coordinate an international research Greece Military Exercises, National Herald, project funded by NATO to develop a 13 November 2020 platform for rapid alert in the event of U.S., allied countries begin NATO Missile a terrorist attack with bio-chemical Firing Installation 2020 in Greece, UPI, 12 agents and for the management of the November 2020 emergency. The prototype will be

Secretary General thanks Greece for its tested in Venice and in the Georgian important contributions to NATO, NATO capital Tbilisi. News Release, 6 October 2020 All five NATO RQ-4D Phoenix drones are on Greece - US "Stolen Cerberus" Military station at Sigonella, Sicily, Sea Power Exercise Successfully Concluded, National Magazine, 13 November 2020 Herald, 21 September 2020 NATO completes modification program for Greece to buy new planes, frigates amid Italian PzH 2000M 155mm self-propelled Turkey tensions, Star Tribune, 12 howitzers, Army Recognition, 3 October September 2020 2020

NATO Chief Refuses to Condemn Turkish Science for Peace and Security, the Ca’ Violations of Greek Airspace, Greek Foscari/NATO project, University of Venice Reporter, 6 September 2020 News, 7 September 2020

Hugo Decis, Greece’s navy feels the Mediterranean heat, IISS Military Balance Latvia Blog, 21 August 2020 Personnel from the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup based in Iceland Tapa took part in a live-firing exercise

According to information published in south of the border in Latvia in October the NATO Support and October. Exercise ‘Iron Spear’ took Procurement Agency has successfully place at the Adazi training ground near implemented a multi-million dollar the Latvian capital, Riga, and pressed contract for the upgrade of the Iceland into action British Army Challenger 2 Air Defence System's Long Range Air Main Battle Tanks, CV90 tracked Surveillance Radars (AN/FPS-117). The combat vehicles from the Danish upgrade is reportedly enhanced the contingent in the battlegroup, and capability of the radars to meet the equipment and personnel from 12 most current requirements for air other NATO allies. surveillance systems in NATO air The Chairman of the NATO Military operations. committee visits key NATO assets in Latvia, NATO News Release, 13 November 2020 New Military Base is out of the Question, Reykjavik Grapevine, 4 November 2020 NATO Battlegroup tanks compete with allies in Latvia firing exercise, ERR News, 18 Prime Minister Says Army Base in East October 2020 Iceland Out of the Question, Iceland Review, 4 November 2020

NATO NSPA implements contract to Lithuania upgrade Iceland air surveillance radar, In September, US troops started Army Recognition, 12 October 2020 extended exercises in Lithuania amid tensions over Belarus. US troops and tanks arrived in Lithuania for a two-

43 month deployment near the Belarus Netherlands border. The troops arrived earlier and The Dutch Defence Ministry has stayed longer than the government had published a new vision document that indicated before the outbreak of can be implemented only if the country protests. were to spend almost three times as In November Lithuanian Minister of much as its current $13 billion annual Defence Raimundas Karoblis travelled defence budget. The document puts a to Washington to sign a deal to buy four price tag of roughly $30 billion HC-60 Black Hawk helicopters worth annually on a string of vague proposals $243 million. “This is a really important meant to turn the country’s military milestone,” he said in an interview at into a multiuse, highly networked the Lithuanian Embassy. “This is the fighting force by 2035. Meanwhile, last legacy of the Soviet era, and this is meeting the NATO pledge of spending the replacement of the last platform, 2% of gross domestic product on the last equipment that we had from defence by 2024 would require an these times". additional $8 billion per year from current spending, the document stated. NATO ally gets rid of Soviet helicopters and buys $500M in US hardware, Washington Dutch Defence Ministry casts ‘unrealistic’ Examiner, 17 November 2020 NATO spending goal, Defense News, 16

October 2020 U.S. troops to start extended exercises in Lithuania amid tensions over Belarus, Two Dutch Soldiers Hurt in Explosion at Reuters, 3 September 2020 NATO Exercise, NL Times, 11 September 2020

Montenegro North Macedonia NATO Secretary General discusses security in the Western Balkans with the Cyber defence experts in North Montenegrin Prime Minister, NATO News Macedonia have been training to Release, 15 December 2020 improve the capacity of their country to Is an International Conflict Brewing in respond to cyber threats. Participants Montenegro? Small Wars Journal, 15 from seven government institutions November 2020 recently completed two courses set up Pablo Dominguez, The ancient band of in the framework of NATO’s Science for shepherds taking on a NATO land grab in Peace and Security Programme. Montenegro, Open Democracy, 13 November 2020 NATO delivers ventilators to North Macedonia, NATO News Release, 31 Montenegro: NATO launches donation of October 2020 valuable medical equipment, Independent Balkan News Agency, 4 November 2020 Mark Proctor, North Macedonia: A New Member State and an Opportunity for NATO delivers ventilators to Montenegro, NATO, RUSI Commentary, 15 October 2020 NATO News Release, 4 November 2020 NATO Secretary General: North Sinisa Vukovic and Majda Ruge, What Macedonia’s membership contributes to Montenegro’s future government means Euro-Atlantic security, NATO News Release, for the Western Balkans, ECFR 9 October 2020 Commentary, 15 September 2020 North Macedonia strengthens its cyber Election Winners Pledge to Keep defences, NATO News Release, 22 Montenegro in NATO, Pro-Western and EU September 2020 Path, Exit News, 9 September 2020

Samir Kajosevic, Can Montenegro Withdraw from NATO? Balkan Insight, 7 September 2020

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Norway Secretary General and Polish foreign minister discuss NATO deterrence and According to an October press release defence, NATO News Release, 21 by the Norwegian Ministry of Defence, September 2020 Norway is increasing its defence Polish soldiers to join NATO mission in spending to strengthen its defence Turkey, First News, 16 September 2020 capability and military readiness. “The Government will continue to invest NATO marks 40th anniversary of the substantially in defence and security, to Solidarity movement, unveils emblem, NATO News Release, 9 September 2020 ensure that Norway remains a reliable, responsible and capable partner on the Northern flank of the Alliance”, said Romania

Norwegian Minister of Defence, Mr Romania received its first shipment of Frank Bakke-Jensen. the US Patriot surface-to-air missile The Government presented a new Long system in September. The shipment Term plan for Defence to Parliament in was part of a $3.9 billion US foreign April 2020, but the Standing military sale (FMS). The Patriot and Committee on Foreign Affairs and other high-dollar FMS purchases, like Defence asked the Government to the US-made HIMARS and F-16 fighter come back to Parliament with a revised jets, also puts Romania in line to plan. The initial plan details a budget increase military spending to 2% of its increase in the coming eight years. In GDP by 2024. In November it was 2024 defence-expenditure will increase announced that Bucharest could spend to a level of 8,3 billion NOK above the around $175 million on a 2020 budget. modernisation and support programme

Norway Increases Defense Budget to for its second-hand fleet of Lockheed Support Long Term Defense Plan, SLD Info, Martin F-16 fighters, after securing US 20 October 2020 support for the transaction.

Increase in NATO scrambled jets from Romanian F-16 upgrade to boost NATO Norway, Barents Observer, 14 September interoperability, Flight Global, 11 2020 November 2020

James Carafano and Daniel Kochis, Poland Romania Leading NATO Build-Up on the Black Sea? National Interest, 19 October In August the United States signed an 2020 "enhanced defence cooperation agreement" with Poland to gradually Patriot delivery bolsters Romania and NATO alliance, DVIDS, 18 September 2020 increase US troop levels by 1,000 rotational personnel (as part of reorganisation of US troop Slovakia deployments that will see reductions in In December, Slovakia initiated a major Germany, as discussed above). This overhaul of its two key strategic was agreed in principle in June 2019 security policy documents—Security and is in addition to the 4,500 US Strategy and Defence Strategy— troops already in Poland on a rotational entering them into the public basis. It is unclear whether these consultation process. The pledge to additional US forces will be bring both strategies up to date was permanently stationed in Poland. If they also included in the Program Manifesto are it would likely violate the terms of of the new Slovak government. the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Daniel Milo, Highlights of the New Slovak Alina Duenas, Duda Ratifies U.S.-Poland Security and Defence Strategy Proposals, Defense Agreement, Current Events, 29 Globesec, 11 December 2020 November 2020

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Turkey integrated into NATO’s command-and- control infrastructure but would A more aggressive, nationalist and instead be “used as a standalone religious Turkey is increasingly at odds system similar to the use of Russian- with its Western allies over Libya, Syria, made S-300 weapons that exist within Iraq, Russia and the energy resources NATO”. (A coded reference to Greece’s of the eastern Mediterranean (see possession of the S-300 weapon above). Turkey’s tilt towards system). authoritarianism and coercive diplomacy after 17 years with President In December the EU leaders agreed to Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the helm has apply some limited sanctions against also unsettled other NATO members. Turkish officials for violating Greek waters, but deferred any further actions Turkey’s S-400 missile system (including possible imposition of trade tariffs or an arms embargo) until their Turkey’s $2.5 billion purchase of a March 2021 summit and pending Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system in consultations with the incoming Biden 2019 has been one of the main issues administration. On the 14 December of contention within NATO. The system the Trump administration imposed cannot be incorporated into NATO's sanctions on Turkey over its purchase integrated air and missile defence of the Russian air defence system, system, and there are concerns that the setting the stage for further tensions missiles could be used to gather between the two NATO allies. sensitive intelligence via systems linked to the F-35 combat aircraft, Turkish drones which is the alliance’s main next- generation warplane. As a result, the Exports of Turkish military drones are United States blocked Turkey from co- increasing, rivalling China's own drone production of the F-35 programme and sector while influencing the military threatened to apply sanctions once the balance of power in the Caucasus, missiles are activated. Turkey was Middle East and North Africa. In making components for the F-35 and October, Turkish and Azerbaijani had planned to purchase 100 of the media were full of videos showing aircraft. armed drones attacking Armenian forces located inside the Nagorno- Trials of the system took place in Karabakh region. October in the northern Turkish province of Sinop, just across the Black Command of the NATO VJTF

Sea from Russian territory. At the NATO The Turkish army will take the lead of Defence Ministers meeting (see above) NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task the Secretary General expressed Force (VJTF) in January 2021, placing concern about the consequences of the thousands of soldiers on standby, Turkish decision to acquire the missile ready to deploy within days. Turkey system, stating “I have expressed those takes over from Poland, which provided concerns several times, including in the core of the force in 2020. Built meetings in Ankara”. He has also around Turkey’s 66th Mechanised supported efforts to try to find Infantry Brigade of around 4,200 alternatives, such as the US Patriot troops, a total of around 6,400 soldiers system—earlier talks on a potential will serve on the VJTF. Units from Patriot deal failed over Turkey’s Albania, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, insistence on technology transfer Montenegro, Poland, Romania, rights—or the French-Italian SAMP/T Slovakia, Spain, the UK, and the United system. In a Bloomberg interview, States will also serve on the force, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar which is part of the alliance’s larger said that the S-400 would not be NATO Response Force. NATO heads of

46 state and government decided to create Antoine Got, Turkey’s Crisis with the West: the VJTF at the Wales Summit in 2014. How a New Low in Relations Risks NATO members take turns heading the Paralyzing NATO, War on the Rocks, 19 November 2020 VJTF. Turkey has the second-largest standing army in NATO. Taras Kuzio, Turkey Forges a New Geo- Strategic Axis from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, Turkey takes over key NATO rapid response RUSI Commentary, 18 November 2020 force as alliance role questioned, Ahval, 31 December 2020 Turkey is trustworthy member of NATO: Envoy, Anadolu Agency, 16 November Turkey takes charge of NATO high 2020 readiness force, NATO News Release, 30 December 2020 Dania Koleilat Khatib, The Turkish Conundrum, Arab News, 15 November Henri J. Barkey, Why There’s No Easy 2020 Solution to the U.S.-Turkey Dispute Over the S-400, World Politics Review, 29 'Turkey to use S-400s as some NATO December 2020 members use S-300s', Anadolu Agency, 12 November 2020 Connor Dilleen, Turkey forges a strategic future independent of Russia and the West, NATO Allies Growing Weary of Turkish Aggression, VoA, 29 October 2020 The Strategist, 21 December 2020|

CAATSA crisis: Turkey wants empathy from Freddie Reidy, Is Turkey on the verge of a NATO exit? CGTN, 20 October 2020 NATO ally, Daily Sabah, 19 December 2020

Turkish exit from NATO possible after U.S. Trump Administration Slams NATO Ally sanctions – analyst, Ahval, 18 December Turkey for Weapon Test, Military.com, 24 October 2020 2020

Erdoğan questions US' NATO alliance with Turkey confirms NATO fears over testing of Turkey, condemns sanctions over S-400s, Russian S-400 missile defense system, Arab News, 23 October 2020 Daily Sabah, 16 December 2020

Ahmet Üzümcü, Mehmet Fatih Ceylan and Klaus Jurgens, Future of NATO-Turkey relations, Daily Sabah, 13 October 2020 Ümit Pamir, Turkey and NATO: resolving the S-400 spat, ELN Commentary, 16 What could Turkey’s latest S-400 missile December 2020 tests mean? Al Jazeera, 12 October 2020

US Sanctions NATO Ally Turkey over Russian weapons and proxy fights add to Russian Missile Defense, Military.com, 15 tensions in one of the world's 'most kinetic December 2020 areas', Business Insider, 9 October 2020

US sanctions NATO ally Turkey over Turkey begins to rival China in military purchase of Russian missile defense drones. Nikkei Asia, 7 October 2020 system, Defense News, 14 December 2020 President Erdoğan receives NATO chief Yasar Yakis, NATO-EU differences exposed Stoltenberg, Daily Sabah, 5 October 2020 by Turkey dilemma, Arab News, 13 December 2020 Turkey Moves Closer to Activating Its Russian Air Defense System, New York Factbox-Rifts that divide NATO allies Times, 6 October 2020 Turkey and United States, Reuters, 11 December 2020 U.S., NATO Talk Peace with Turkey While It Plays Active Role in Three Wars, Newsweek, EU to discuss arms exports to Turkey with 5 October 2020 NATO and U.S., Merkel says, Reuters, 11 December 2020 NATO finds Turkish navy 'professional,' falsifies French claims, Daily Sabah, 23 Serkan Demirtaş, EU should give an ear to September 2020 NATO chief on Turkey, Hurriyet Daily News, 9 December 2020 Toni Alaranta, Turkey and the post- pandemic world: What kind of Turkey plays key role in fight against revisionism? FIIA Working Paper 116, terrorism: NATO, Anadolu Agency, 24 September 2020 November 2020

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E. Fuat Keyman and Andrew O’Donohue, UK army buys 30 'Bug' drones that can spy The Five Challenges to Erdoğan’s Executive on targets 2km away, The Guardian, 28 Presidential Rule after the Coronavirus, December 2020 GMF On Turkey, No.8, September 2020 David Richards and Julian Lindley-French, ''Turkey is a valuable NATO ally,'' says Britain, Brexit and NATO 2030, The Alphen NATO Chairman, NATO News Release, 10 Group Chair's Blog, 14 December 2020 September 2020 ICC prosecutor drops probe into alleged UK Turkey expects allies to act in spirit of war crimes in Iraq -statement, Reuters, 9 NATO solidarity: Minister tells NATO December 2020 official, Hurriyet Daily News, 7 September Must Read: Phil Miller, Revealed: The UK 2020 military’s overseas base network involves Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Under the waves: Turkey’s 145 sites in 42 countries, Declassified UK, Black Sea gas discovery and relations with 24 November 2020

Europe, ECFR Commentary, 3 September Paul Cornish, The Disintegrating Language 2020 of UK Defence, The Alphen Group Blog, 27

November 2020

United Kingdom Must Read: Mary Kaldor, More military

Thirty thousand “robot soldiers” could spending won't keep Britain safe – but boosting overseas aid could, The Guardian, form an integral part of the British army 26 November 2020 in the 2030s, working alongside humans in and around the frontline, Paul Mason, Digital warfare will erode the the head of the armed forces said in a distinction between the state and civil television interview in November. Gen society, New Statesman, 25 November 2020 Sir Nick Carter said the armed forces needed “to think about how we Conrad Prince, On the Offensive: The UK’s measure effects in a different way” – New Cyber Force, RUSI Commentary, 23 November 2020 and he called on the government to proceed with the previously promised Peter Roberts, Britain’s Defences: The five--year integrated defence review. Biggest Spending Boost Since the Cold War, RUSI Commentary, 19 November 2020 In November, the UK announced the biggest increase in military spending Boris Johnson agrees £16bn rise in defence since the Cold War. Pledging to end the spending, The Guardian, 18 November 2020 “era of retreat” as it seeks a post-Brexit role in a world Prime Minister Boris 'Robot soldiers could make up quarter of Johnson warned was more perilous British army by 2030s', The Guardian, 8 November 2020 than for decades. Independent research revealed that Britain’s armed forces Indy Scotland can't dump Trident and join have a far more extensive base network Nato, warns British spy chief, The Herald, 8 than ever presented by the Ministry of November 2020

Defence. Britain’s military has a Tom Plant and Matthew Harries, No Go for permanent presence at 145 base sites GOCO: The UK Renationalises Its Nuclear in 42 countries or territories around the Warhead Factory, RUSI Commentary, 6 world, research by Declassified UK November 2020 found. Trevor Taylor, Brexit’s Implications for UK In December, the International Criminal Defence Industrial Cooperation with Court dropped a preliminary Europe, RUSI Commentary, 5 November 2020 investigation into alleged UK war crimes in Iraq, even though the ICC John Scarlett, US and UK Intelligence and prosecutor found a reasonable basis to Security Relationship: The Way Forward – believe that atrocities were committed. Together, RUSI Commentary, 3 November 2020

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Lord Ricketts, France and the UK: A Decade of the Lancaster House Treaties RUSI Independent oversight of UK special Commentary, 2 November 2020 forces

Luba Zatsepina-McCreadie and Tom Plant Dave Doogan (Angus) (SNP) and eds., The 2020 UK PONI Papers, RUSI, Margaret Ferrier (Rutherglen and October 2020 Hamilton West) (SNP) asked the Malcolm Chalmers, A Reckoning following question to the UK Defence Postponed? The Defence Arithmetic of the Secretary: If he will make an Integrated Review, Occasional Paper Royal assessment of the potential merits of United Services Institute for Defence and establishing an independent body to Security Studies, October 2020 oversee the operations of the UK’s Conrad Prince, Five Principles for the Next Special Forces. UK Cyber Strategy, RUSI Commentary, 27 October 2020 The Secretary of State for Defence (Mr Ben Wallace): It has been the UK has mounted covert attacks against longstanding position of successive Russian leadership, says ex-mandarin, The Guardian, 24 October 2020 Governments not to comment on the operations activity of the UK special How drone swarms will defend Britain, The forces, as to do so would put personnel Economist, 15 October 2020 and operations at risk. All military Danny Steed, Implications of the UK’s operations are overseen and Russia Report for the next National Cyber scrutinised by Ministers, who are Security Strategy, Real Instituto Elcano,13 accountable to this Parliament. October 2020 Margaret Ferrier: The current

The government’s Integrated Review is Government’s adoption of a “no currently slated for publication in mid- comment” policy prevents any November. It is expected to lay parliamentary scrutiny of the role of UK particular stress on the essential values special forces in defence and security behind the UK’s foreign policy, strategy, even when their involvement including its commitment to open in operations becomes the subject of societies and its respect for a ‘rules- media coverage. Will the Secretary of based international order’. Strange, State commit to a review of the “no then, that at about the same time the comment” policy for UK special forces, Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and enable parliamentary oversight of and Veterans) Bill may be on its way to their activities, placing them on a similar footing to MI5, MI6 and GCHQ? receive Royal Assent. If it becomes law, it will cast a long shadow over any lofty Mr Wallace: As I say, it is a long-held statements being made around that policy of many Governments not to time concerning the UK’s international comment on special forces. They are values. For the Overseas Operations accountable to me and to the law, and Bill, with the best of intentions, where we see any issues, Ministers will nevertheless looks as if it means to put of course intervene. I will not commit to the UK at odds with the Geneva a further review; that is a longstanding Conventions and the International policy. Our special forces do an Criminal Court (ICC), and to open a absolutely amazing job saving lives significant loophole in customary around the world and protecting our international law which can be citizens. They operate in the covert exploited by authoritarian states. world to achieve that effect and make

Michael Clarke, The UK’s Overseas sure their lives are not put at risk.

Operations Bill: Good Questions, Wrong Special Forces: Independent Oversight, Answers, RUSI Commentary, 7 October House of Commons Hansard, 21 2020 September 2020 (Volume 680)

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Nilanthi Samaranayake, The Chagos NATO and the transatlantic Archipelago Dispute: Law, Diplomacy and relationship", Stoltenberg said in a Military Basing, Lawfare, 6 October 2020 press release. He emphasised the Cristina Varriale, Beyond the Disarmament importance of US leadership, adding Impasse: How Europe Perceives the UK’s that he looks forward to the Biden- Disarmament Verification Efforts, RUSI Harris administration to "further the Occasional Paper, September 2020 bond between North America and

Why won’t the UK protect civilians from Europe". "A strong NATO is good for unexploded bombs? Article 36, 19 North America and good for Europe. September 2020 Together, NATO Allies represent

Britain’s armed forces get ready for a almost one billion people, half of the revolution, The Economist, 15 September world’s economic might and half of the 2020 world’s military might", the release added. Abigail Watson and Megan Karlshoej- Pedersen, Questions for the Integrated Attacks on WHO and ICC Review #3: How Should the UK Measure Success? Oxford Research Group, 7 In September the United States September 2020 announced that it would not join an

Abigail Watson and Megan Karlshoej- international coalition to identify a Pedersen, A Call for Dialogue: The Dangers Covid-19 vaccine. A spokesman for the of Polarisation in the Special Forces Debate, Trump administration said that the ORG Commentary, 28 August 2020 coalition, Covax, has ties to the World Health Organization, an international Ben Barry, British Army tank upgrade: weighing the prospects, IISS Military body that President Trump withdrew the United States from in July. Balance Blog, 6 August 2020 Another international body disliked by the Trump administration is the United States International Criminal Court (ICC). In

The 2020 United States presidential September US Secretary of State Mike election held on 3 November was won Pompeo imposed new sanctions on by Joe Biden. Trump became the first US senior officials involved in the ICC, president since George H. W. Bush in which is currently investigating alleged 1992 to lose a bid for a second term. war crimes committed by the US and Biden won the largest percentage of the others in Afghanistan. Pompeo accused popular vote of any challenger since the ICC of “illegitimate attempts to 1932 and the election saw the highest subject Americans to its jurisdiction”. voter turnout since 1900. Before, The United States is not a member state during, and after Election Day, Trump to the ICC, but Afghanistan is. and numerous Republicans attempted Closure of Stars and Stripes to subvert the election and overturn the results, falsely alleging widespread The Pentagon will soon shut down an voter fraud and trying to influence the 159 year-old military newspaper called vote counting process in swing states. Stars and Stripes, citing a lack of funding. A bipartisan coalition of On 7 November 2020 NATO Secretary fifteen senators urged Defense General Jens Stoltenberg congratulated Secretary Mark Esper to reinstate the President-elect Joe Biden and Vice $15.5 million in funding, calling Stars President-elect Kamala Harris on their and Stripes “an essential part of our victory in the 2020 US presidential nation's freedom of the press that election. "I warmly welcome the serves the very population charged election of Joe Biden as the next with defending that freedom”. President of the United States. I know Mr. Biden as a strong supporter of

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Countering China US reinforcements to Syria

The Republic of Palau, an island nation The United States increased its military in the Pacific, has invited the Pentagon presence in Syria in September after a to establish a US military presence on number of skirmishes with Russian its territory. Defense Secretary Mark forces intensified tensions in the Esper travelled to Palau in September country. The troops and vehicles were under the 2018 National Defense sent to deter Russian forces from Strategy’s objective to counter Beijing’s entering a security area, where US maritime expansion and influence in coalition and Kurdish forces were Asia. The United States also plans to operating. It was also reported that the sell major weapons systems to Taiwan. United States is using “Ninja Hellfire” Usually, the United States only missiles against Al-Qaeda leaders in occasionally sells weapons to Taiwan, northwestern Syria. A US but it now intends to send seven counterterrorism official confirmed in shipments of mines, cruise missiles September what the New York Times and drones to create a bulwark in called a “clandestine campaign” to kill Taiwan against potential Chinese jihadist leaders in the region, including aggression. a 14 September strike in Idlib using the modified Hellfire missile with an inert In November, the Republican majority warhead and a halo of six blades. on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee released a new report on In December 2018, President Trump confronting China, in which they press announced that he ordered the for a multilateral approach with withdrawal of all 2,000–2,500 US expanded help from Europe—a troops operating in Syria, although no strategy that coincides with the stated clear timetable was given. About 500 policy objectives of the incoming Biden US troops are thought to remain in administration. Syria's northeast guarding oil fields from the Islamic State and working A major new Pentagon report in alongside the Kurdish forces. December, signed by the heads of the US Marine Corps, Navy, and Coast Potential strikes against Iran Guard, warned the “rules-based international order is once again under In November, President Trump asked assault”, and the security environment advisers about his options for had dramatically changed since 2015. launching a missile or cyber strike The report said China and Russia were against Iran’s Natanz nuclear site now “determined rivals” of the US, with during an Oval Office meeting. The China presenting “the most pressing meeting occurred shortly after the long-term strategic threat”. To maintain International Atomic Energy Agency strategic advantage over the Chinese reported that Iran had a large buildup navy, the US plans to modernise its of uranium—enough to build two naval force with smaller, more agile and nuclear weapons, according to the even remotely piloted ships. Institute for Science and International Security. Trump’s senior advisers, Missile tests including Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo, warned The United States launched a missile against such a provocative strike. The test in September just four weeks after president is reportedly considering the last test. The US Air Force launched other ways to push back against Iran a Minuteman III intercontinental and its allied groups in the region ballistic missile with one “mock” nuclear warhead. before he leaves office.

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$740 billion defence bill passed What Allies and Partners Expect from a Biden Administration GMF Experts, with an In December, the US House of introduction by Rachel Tausendfreund, Representatives overwhelmingly Transatlantic Policy Implications of the backed a $740 billion defence policy 2020 U.S. Election, GMF, December 2020 bill that President Trump pledged to William D. Hartung and Mandy veto. The vote was 335 to 78 in favour. Smithberger, Shrinking the Pentagon: Will “Today the House sent a strong, the Biden Administration Dare Cut Military bipartisan message to the American Spending?, Tom Dispatch, 29 November people”, Democratic Representative 2020 Adam Smith, chairman of the House Ramzy Baroud, “Total reset” is wishful Armed Services Committee, said. After thinking: The daunting task of reordering the legislation was also passed by the U.S. foreign policy, Arab America News, 28 Senate the president sought to veto it. November 2020 On 1 January, however, the Senate voted to override President Trump's Daniel DePetris, More autonomous allies are better allies, Defense News, 26 veto of the defence bill, known as the November 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. The final Senate vote was 81-13, far Can Biden's Appreciation of NATO Turn above the two-thirds majority needed Back The Clock To Pre-Trump Era? NPR, 25 to override the veto. November 2020 NATO Secretary General spoke with U.S. Senate votes to override Trump's veto on President-elect Biden, NATO News Release, 23 November 2020 defense bill, CNN, 1 January 2021

What's next for NATO after Donald Trump?, Biden spotlights ‘enduring commitment’ to Deutsche Welle, 28 December 2020 NATO in talk with alliance leader, Fox News, 23 November 2020 US Navy to adopt 'more assertive posture' against China and Russia, The Guardian, 18 Elise Swain, Joe Biden’s Silence on Ending December 2020 the Drone Wars, The Intercept, 22 November 2020 Laurel Miller, Once Upon a Time, There Was a U.S. Foreign Policy Triumph, International Danny Sjursen, What President Biden Won’t Crisis Group Commentary, 14 December Touch: Foreign Policy, Sacred Cows, and 2020 the U.S. Military, TomDispatch, 22 November 2020 Must Read: Andrew Lisa, 50 insights into the US military-industrial complex, Florida Must Read: Cassandra Stimpson and Holly Keys News, 12 December 2020 Zhang, A Washington Echo Chamber for a New Cold War: A Rising China Lifts All Boats NATO's Success Depends on Ability to (Submarines, Aircraft Carriers, and Surface Change as Needed, US Department of Ships), Not to Speak of Fighter Planes, in Defense News Release, 10 December 2020 the Military-Industrial Complex,

TomDispatch, 19 November 2020 Iveta Cherneva, What a Biden administration means for Eastern Europe, Special Operations Leader to Report Emerging Europe, 8 December 2020 Directly to Acting Defense Secretary, US

Michael T. Klare, Trump’s Pernicious Department of Defense, 18 November 2020 Military Legacy: From the Forever Wars to the Cataclysmic Wars, TomDispatch, 6 Must Read: Matthew Crosston, The Danger December 2020 of NATO Platitudes: What a Biden

Kathryn Urban, Reviving NATO under a Presidency Means, Modern Diplomacy, 16 November 2020 Biden Presidency, Charged Affairs, 3 December 2020 John Richard Cookson, Fewer US troops are

Trump Sought Options for Attacking Iran to needed in Europe no matter the president, Stop Its Growing Nuclear Program, New The Hill, 15 November 2020 York Times, 2 December 2020

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After Trump, foreign allies wonder whether Lacin Idil Oztig, The transatlantic alliance in they can trust America, say former officials, the Age of Trump, Global Change, Peace & NBC News, 15 November 2020 Security, vol. 32 no.3, 2020, pp. 297-315

Readout of Acting Secretary of Defense Mr. Andrew Bacevich, Reframing America’s Christopher C. Miller Phone Call with NATO Role in the World: The Specter of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, US Isolationism, TomDispatch, 18 October Department of Defense, 13 November 2020 2020 William D. Hartung, The U.S. of A(rms): The US-NATO co-operation and partnership Art of the Weapons Deal in the Age of focus of strategic talks news, EU Reporter, Trump, Tom Dispatch, 13 October 2020 10 November 2020 Michael T. Klare, Talking Tough and Tom Engelhardt, State of Chaos: Donald Carrying a Radioactive Stick: The Trump Knew Us Better Than We Knew Nuclearization of American Diplomacy, Ourselves, Tom Dispatch, 10 November TomDispatch, 11 October 2020 2020 U.S. war games in Germany as Washington How will a Biden presidency impact NATO plots withdrawal, NBC News, 11 October and Brexit? Al Jazeera, 8 November 2020 2020

NATO Secretary General congratulates US Policy Chief Outlines Changes to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and Vice Defense Postures in Germany, European President-elect Kamala Harris, NATO Press Theater, US Department of Defense, 2 Release, 7 November 2020 October 2020

Aaron Mehta and Joe Gould, Where William J. Astore, A Thousand Times Worse: President-elect Joe Biden stands on national Or How to Nuke History, TomDispatch, 1 security issues, Defense News, 7 November October 2020 2020 Stephen Tankel, Making the U.S. Military’s Chris Riehl, U.S. Treaty Commitments, Counter-Terrorism Mission Sustainable, NATO, and Congressional Responsibility, War on the Rocks, 28 September 2020 The International Affairs Review, 3 Sara Bjerg Moller, It will take more than a November 2020 Biden victory to solve NATO’s strategic Candace Rondeaux, How Elections in the malaise, War on the Rocks, 25 September U.S.—and Georgia—Could Determine 2020 NATO’s Future, World Politics Review, 30 U.S. Commandos Use Secretive Missiles to October 2020 Kill Qaeda Leaders in Syria, New York Second Trump Term Puts NATO 'Very Much Times, 24 September 2020 in Jeopardy,' John Bolton Says, Newsweek, Biden Wants to Keep Special Ops in the 30 October 2020 Mideast. That Doesn’t Mean More ‘Forever LeAnne Howard, The (Next) President’s Wars,’ His Adviser Says, TIME, 23 NATO Opportunity: Actual Adaptation, September 2020 National Interest, 24 October 2020 Shannon Culbertson and Alice Hunt Friend, Scott R. Anderson and Benjamin Wittes, The Unbalanced Spear, Lawfare, 20 Forcing President Trump to Comply With September 2020 the Law, Lawfare, 21 October 2020 Syria war: US deploys reinforcements to Michael Beckley, Rogue Superpower: Why Syria after Russia clashes, BBC News, 19 This Could Be an Illiberal American Century, September 2020 Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020 John Krzyzaniak, Eight theories on Trump’s NATO would seek early summit with Biden, “incredible” new secret nuclear weapon, if elected, envoys say, Reuters, 20 October Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 18 2020 September 2020

Todd Prince, Alliance Attitudes: U.S. Exclusive: U.S. pushes arms sales surge to Election Pits Vocal NATO Backer Biden Taiwan, needling China – sources, Reuters, Against Frequent Critic Trump, Radio Free 16 September 2020 Europe/ Radio Liberty, 18 October 2020

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Must Read: Mandy Smithberger, National Update on U.S. Withdrawal from the World (In)Security and the Pentagon Budget: A Health Organization, US Department of Post-Coronavirus Economy Can No Longer State, Press Statement, 3 September 2020 Afford to Put the Pentagon First, Test launch demonstrates safe, ready TomDispatch, 13 September 2020 Minuteman III deterrent, US Air Force, 2 NATO commemorates the 9/11 terrorist September 2020 attacks on the United States, NATO News International Criminal Court officials Release, 11 September 2020 sanctioned by US, BBC News, 2 September Senator's Challenge to War Powers Secrecy 2020 Blocked, Federation of American Scientists, Secrecy News, 11 September 2020

Sholto Byrnes, What is Nato good for? The National, 9 September 2020

Trump Withdrawing From NATO Would Be 'A Disaster,' Delaware Senator Warns, IDEAS, FEEDBACK, Newsweek, 9 September 2020 SUGGESTIONS? Conflicts since start of US 'war on terror' have displaced 37m people – report, The Guardian, 9 September 2020

Ideas, feedback, suggestions? We want Conflicts with US military involvement to hear from you. Please contact us at have displaced at least 37 million NATO Watch with any news and stories people since the beginning of the “war for the Observatory, as well as feedback on terror” nearly two decades ago, a or suggestions. report has estimated. The paper focuses on conflicts since the September 11 terrorist attacks in which DONATE NOW PLEASE the US initiated armed combat (as in NATO Watch is a small non-profit Iraq or Afghanistan), contributed to its organisation that provides independent escalation (Libya and Syria) or oversight and analysis of an ever- participated through drone strikes, growing NATO. But with tightly stretched battlefield advisers, arms sales and resources we struggle to consistently and other means (Yemen, Somalia and the continually function as an effective Philippines). ‘watchdog’.

Must Read: David Vine, Cala Coffman, Katalina Khoury, Madison Lovasz, Helen If you share our vision for a Bush, Rachel Leduc, and Jennifer Walkup, transparent and accountable NATO Creating Refugees: Displacement Caused please donate whatever you can afford to by the United States’ Post-9/11 Wars, help NATO Watch thrive. Click on the Brown University, Costs of War Project 8 picture below to find out how you can September 2020 make a donation.

Anthony Dworkin, Why America is facing off against the International Criminal Court, ECFR Commentary, 8 September 2020

Sally Painter, US must remain committed to NATO and the Baltic States, Atlantic Council, 8 September 2020

Allies and Former U.S. Officials Fear Trump Could Seek NATO Exit in a Second Term, New York Times, 3 September 2020

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