Literature on GCR

GCR general

*Bostrom, N. & Cirkovi´c,´ M.M. 2008, “Introduction”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovic (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP: Oxford.

*Bostrom, N. 2007, “Technological Revolutions: Ethics and Policy in the Dark”, in: B. Gordijn & R. Chadwick (eds.), Medical Enhancement and Posthumanity, Springer: New York.

Bostrom, N. 2006, “Dinosaurs, dodos, humans?” in: Global Agenda, 230–231.

*Bostrom, N. 2002, “Existential Risks: Analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards”, in: Journal of Evolution and Technology 9.

Grossi, P. & Kunreuther, H. 2006, “Models for hard times”, in: Contingencies March/April 2006, 33–36.

*Haimes, Y.Y. 2008, “Systems-based risk analysis”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

*Hanson, R. 2008, “Catastrophe, social collapse, and and human extinction”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Hanson, R. 2007, Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction

Hawking, S., Life in the universe

Hempsell, C.M. 2004, “The Investigation of Natural Global Catastrophes”, in: JBIS 57, 2–13.

Hempsell, C.M. 2004, “The Potential for Space Intervention in Global Catastro- phes”, in: JBIS 57, 14–21.

Horton, R. 2005, “Threats to human survival: a WIRE to warn the world”, in: www.thelancet.com 365.

Joy, B. 2000, “Why the future doesn’t need us”, in: Wired Magazine 8.04.

1 Kent, A. 2003, A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes, in: Risk Analysis 24(1), 157–168. *Leslie, J. 1996, The End of the World. The Science and Ethics of Human Extinc- tion, Routledge: New York. *Matheny, J.G. 2007, “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction”, in: Risk Analysis 27(5). Parson, E.A. 2007, “The Big One: A Review of Richard Posners Catastrophe: Risk and Response”, in: Journal of Economic Literature XLV, 147-164. *Posner, R. 2008, “Public policy toward catastrophe”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford. Posner, R. 2005, “Catastrophic Risks, Resource Allocation, and Homeland Securi- ty”, in: Journal of Homeland Security. *Posner, R.A. 2004, Catastrophe – Risk and Response, OUP: Oxford. Powell, C.S. 2000, “20 Ways the World Could End Swept away”, in: Discover 21(10). *Rees, M. 2003, Our Final Century, Random House, London; published in US as Our Final Hour, Basic Books. *Sunstein, C.R. 2007, Worst Case Scenarios, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA. Smil, V. 2005, “The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities”, in: Population and De- velopment Review 31(2), 201-236. WEF 2008, Global Risks 2008. A Global Risk Network Report. WEF 2006, World Economic Forum Global Risk Report 2006. WEF 2006, Global Risks 2006, A World Economic Forum Report, in collaboration with MMC (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.) Merrill Lynch and Swiss Re. *Weitzman, M.L. 2008, On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastro- phic Climate Change

*Taylor, P. 2008, “Catastrophes and insurance”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

2 Artificial Intelligence

Bostrom, N. 1998, “How long before superintelligence?”, Originally published in original in Int. Jour. of Future Studies, 1998, vol. 2. Reprinted in Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, March 2006.

Omohundro, S.M. 2007, The Nature of Self-Improving Artificial Intelligence.

Vinge, V. 1993, The Singularity, in: Whole Earth Review, Winter 1993.

*Yudkowsky, E. 2008, “Artificial intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk” in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovic (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Animal Extinction

Cardillo, M., et al. 2005, “Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species” in: Science 309 1239–1241.

Kiehl, J.T. & Shields, C.A. 2005, “Climate simulation of the latest Permian: Im- plications for mass extinction” in: Geology 33(9), 757-760.

Ludwig, D. 1999, “Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction?” in: Eco- logy 80(1), 298–310.

Moravec, H. 2000, Robot. Mere Machine to Transcendant Mind, OUP: Oxford.

O’Grady, J.J., Reed, D.H., Brook, B.W. & Frankham, R. 2004, “What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk?” in: Biological Conservation 118, 513- 520.

Asteroids

Becker, L. 2002, “Repeated Blows”, in: Scientific American, 286 (3).

Chapman, C.R. & Morrison, D. 1994, “Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard”, in: Nature 367, 33–40.

Chapman, C.R. 2004, “The hazard of near-Earth asteroid impacts on earth”, in: Earth and Planetary Science Letters 222, 1-15.

3 Chapman, C.R., Durda, D.D. & Schweickart, R.L. 2006, “Mitigation: Interfa- ces between NASA, Risk Managers, and the Public”, White Paper submitted to NASA Workshop on ‘Near-Earth Object Detection, Characterization, and Threat Mitigation’, Vail CO, 26 June 2006.

Firestone, R. B. et al. 2007, “Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years ago that contributed to the megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas coo- ling” in: NAS 104(41), 16016-16021.

Gerrard, M.B. 2000, “Risk of hazardous waste sites versus asteroid and comet im- pacts: accounting for discrepancies in the U.S. resource allocation”, in: Risks Analysis 20 (6), 895–904.

Gritzner, C., Durfeld,¨ K., Kasper, J. & Fasoulas, S. 2006, “The asteroid and comet impact hazard: risk assessment and mitigation options”, in: Naturwissen- schaften 93, 361-373.

*Napier, W. 2008, “Hazards from comets and asteroids”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Morrison, D., et al. 2003, “Dealing with the Impact Hazard”

NASA 2003, “Study to Determine the Feasibility of Extending the Search for Near- Earth Objects to Smaller Limiting Diameters”, Report of the Near-Earth Object Science Definition Team, Prepared at the Request of National Aeronautics and Space Administration Office of Space Science Solar System Exploration Division.

NASA 2006, “2006 Near-Earth object survey and deflection study”.

NASA 2007, “Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives”, Report to Congress.

Schweickart, R.L. et al., “Threat Characterization: Trajectory Dynamics”, White Paper 039.

Schweickart, R.L. 2007, “Technical Critique of NASA’s Report to Congress and as- sociated of ‘2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report’ Published 28 Dec. 2006”,

Sommer, G.S. 2004, Astronomical Odds A Policy Framework for the Cosmic Impact Hazard, dissertation.

4 Urias, J.M. et al. 1996, “Planetary Defense: Catastrophic Health Insurance for Pla- net Earth”, research paper presented to Air Force 2025.

Astro Risks

*Adams, F. 2008, “Long-term astrophysical processes”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Adams, F.C. & Laughlin, G. 1997, “A dying universe: the long-term fate and evo- lution of astrophysical objects”, in: Reviews of Modern Physics 69(2), 337–372.

Caldeira, K. & Kasting, J.F. 1991, “The lifespan of the biosphere revisited”, in: Nature 360, 721.

Cirkovi´c,´ M.M. 2002, “Cosmological forecast and its practical significance”, in: Jour- nal of Evolution and Technology 12.

Cirkovi´c,´ M.M. 2003, “Resource Letter: PEs-1: Physical eschatology” in: Am. J. Phys. 71 (2), 122–133.

Cirkovi´c,´ M.M. 2004, “Forecast for the Next Eon: Applied Cosmology and the Long-Term Fate of Intelligent Beings”, in: Foundations of Physics, 34 (2), 239– 261.

Cirkovi´c,´ M.M., “A Resource Letter on Physical Eschatology”, in: Am. J. Phys. 71, 122-133.

Dyson, F.J. 1979, “Time without end: physics and biology in an open universe”, in: Reviews of Modern Physics 51(3), 447–460.

Freese, L. & Kinney, W.H., “The Ultimate Fate of Life in an Accelerating Univer- se”.

Gehrels, N., et al. 2003, “Ozone depletion from nearby Supernovae”, in: The Astro- physical Journal, 585, 1169-1176.

Korycansky, D.G., Laughlin, G. & Adams, F.C. 2001, “Astronomical enginee- ring: a strategy for modifying planetary orbits”, in: Astrophysics and Space Science 275, 349366.

5 Krauss, L.M. & Starkman, G.D., “Life, The Universe, and Nothing: Life and Death in an Ever-Expanding Universe”

Noyes, H.P. & Lindesay, J.V. 2005, Scientific Eschatology

Rybicki, K.R. & Denis, C. 2001, “On the final destiny of the Earth and the Solar system”, in: Icarus 151, 130-137.

Sackmann, I.-J., Boothroyd, A.I. & Kraemer, K.E. 1993, “Our Sun III. Pre- sent and future”, in: The Astrophysical Journal 418, 457–468.

Scalo, J. & Wheeler, J.C. 2002, “Astrophysical and astrobiological implications of gamma-ray burst properties”, in: The Astrophysical Journal 418, 457–468.

Biases

Axelrod, L.J., McDaniels, T. & P. Slovic 1999, “Perceptions of ecological risk from natural hazards”, in: Journal of Risk Research 2(1), 31-53.

Gerrard, M.B. 2000, “Risk of hazardous waste sites versus asteroid and comet im- pacts: accounting for discrepancies in the U.S. resource allocation”, in: Risks Analysis 20 (6), 895–904.

*Hughes, J.J. 2008, “Millenial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Kunreuther, H., Novemsky, N. & Kahneman, D. 2000, Making Low Probabi- lities Useful,

Kunreuther, H. & Pauly, M. 2004, “Neglecting Disaster: Why Dont People Insu- re Against Large Losses?”, in: The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5-21.

Schuler, E. 2004, “Perception of Risks and Nanotechnology”, in: D. Baird, A. Nord- mann & J. Schummer (eds.), Discovering the Nanoscale, Amsterdam: IOS Press.

Slovic, P. et al. 1977, “Preferences for insuring against probable small losses: ins- urance implications”, in: Journal of Risk and Insurance 44(2), 237–258.

Sunstein, C.R. 2002, “Probability neglect: Emotions, worst cases, and law”, in: The Yale Law Journal 112, 61–107.

6 Sunstein, C.R. 2003, “Terrorism and Probability Neglect”, in: The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 26(2/3), 1211136. Sunstein, C.R. 2007, “The catastrophic harm precautionary principle”, in: Issues in Legal Scholarship. Catastrophic risks: prevention, compensation, and recovery. *Yudkowsky, E. 2008, “Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Bio Risks

Atlas, R.M. 1998, “The Medical Threat of Biological Weapons”, in: Critical Reviews in Microbiology 24(3), 157-168. Atlas, R.M. 2002, “Bioterrorism: From threat to reality”, in: Annu. Rev. Microbiol. 56, 167-185. Chyba, C.F. & Greninger, A.L. 2004, “Biotechnology and bioterrorism: An un- precedented world”, in: Survival 24(2), 143–162. Danzig, R. 2003, Catastrophic bioterrorism — What is to be done?, Center for Tech- nology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, Washington, D.C. IOM (Institute of Medicine and National research Council) 2005, Globalizat- ion, biosecurity, and the future of the life sciences, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. *Kilbourne, E.D. 2008, “Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford. Koblentz, G. 2004, “Pathogens as weapons. The international security implications of biological warfare” in: International Security 28(3), 84-122. *Nouri, A. & Chyba, C.F. 2008, “Biotechnology and biosecurity”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford. Petro, J.B., Plasse, T.R. & McNulty, J.A. 2003, “Biotechnology: Impact on Bio- logical Warfare and Biodefense”, in: Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science 1(3), 161–168.

7 Poste, G. 2002, “Biotechnology and terrorism”, in: Prospect Magazine 74. Relman ,D.A. , “Bioterrorism — Preparing to Fight the Next War”, in: N. Engl. J. Med. 354(2), 113–115. Williams, M. 2006, “The Knowledge. Biotechnology’s advance could give malefac- tors the ability to manipulate life processes — and even affect human behavior”, in: Technological Review. *Wills, C. 2008, “Evolution theory and the future of humanity”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Climate Change

*Frame,D. & Allen, M. 2008, “Climate change and global risk”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford. *IPCC 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report “The Phy- sical Science Basis”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. *IPCC 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report “mpacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mayhew, P.J., Jenkins, G.B. & Benton. T.G. 2007, “A long-term association bet- ween global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record”, in: Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 47-53. Peiser, B. , “Climate change and civilisation collapse”, in: Adapt or Die. Schwartz, P. & Randall, D. 2003, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security. Toggweiler, J.R. & Russell, J. 2008, “Ocean circulation in a warming climate”, in: Nature 451(17), 286–288.

Cosmic Rays

*Dar, A. 2008, “Influence of supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

8 Medvedev, M.V. & Melott, A.L. 2007, “Do extragalactic cosmic rays induce cy- cles in fossil diversity?”,

Doomsday Argument and Observation Selection Effects *Bostrom, N. 2002, Anthropic Bias, Routledge: New York.

Bostrom, N. 1993, “Are you living in a computer simulation” in: Philosophical Quar- terly 53 (211), 243–255.

*Cirkovi´c,´ M.M. 2008, “Observation selection effects: the Fermi paradox, the Dooms- day argument and the simulation argument”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Gott, J.R. 1993, “Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects”, in: Nature 363, 315–319.

Greenberg, M. 1999, Apocalypse Not Just Now, Research Paper No. 05-30, Univer- sity of California, Los Angeles School of Law Public Law & Legal Theory Research Paper Series.

Hanson, R. 1998, Critiquing the Doomsday Argument.

*Leslie, J. 1996, The End of the World. The Science and Ethics of Human Extinc- tion, Routledge: New York.

*Tegmark, M. & Bostrom, N. 2005, “How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe?” in: Nature 438, 754.

Hanson, R. 1998, The Great Filter — Are We Almost Past It?

Ethics

*Bostrom, N. 2003, “Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Tech- nological Development”, in: Utilitas 15(3), 308–314.

Kuznick, P.J. 2007, “Prophets of doom or voices of sanity? The evolving discourse of annihilation in the first decade and a half of the nuclear age”, in: Journal of Genocide Research 9(3), 411–441.

9 Lenman, J. 2002, “On becoming extinct”, in: Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 83, 253-269.

Leslie, J. 1999, Risking Human Extinction.

Trisel, B.A. 2004, “Human extinction and the value of our efforts”, in: The Philo- sophical Forum XXXV(3), 371–391.

*Sunstein, C.R. 2007, Worst Case Scenarios, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA.

Fermi Paradox

Annis, J. 1999, An Astrophysical Explanation for the Great Silence

*Cirkovi´c,´ M.M. 2008, “Observation selection effects: the Fermi paradox, the Dooms- day argument and the simulation argument”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Cirkovi´c,´ M. 2006, “Too Early? On the Apparent Conflict of Astrobiology and Cos- mology”, in: Biology and Philosophy 21(3), 369–379.

Cirkovi´c,´ M. 2003, “On the importance of SETI for transhumanism”, in: Journal of Evolution and Technology

Cirkovi´c,´ M. 2003, “Geo-engineering gone awry: A new partial solution of Fermis Paradox”, in: Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 57, 209–215.

Cirkovi´c,´ M. & Bradbury, R.J. 2006, Galactic gradients, postbiological evolution and the apparent failure of SETI

Hanson, R. 1998, The Great Filter — Are We Almost Past It?

Pisani, R., The Fermi Paradox. Three Models

Wesson, P.S. 1990, “Cosmology, extraterrestrial intelligence, and a resolution of the Fermi-Hart Paradox”, in: Q. J. R. astr. Soc. 31, 161–170.

10 Nanotechnology

Freitas, R.A. Jr. 2000, Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplica- tors, with Public Policy Recommendations

Gubrud, M.A. 1997, Nanotechnology and International Security

NATO 2005, 179 STCMT 05 E — The Security Implications of Nanotechnology.

*Phoenix, C. & Treder, M. 2008, “Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Saxton, J. 2007, Nanotechnology: The Future is Coming Sooner Than You Think, A joint economic committee study.

Schuler, E. 2004, “Perception of Risks and Nanotechnology”, in: D. Baird, A. Nord- mann & J. Schummer (eds.), Discovering the Nanoscale, Amsterdam: IOS Press.

Vassar, M. & Freitas R.A. Jr. 2006, Lifeboat Foundation Nanoshield.

Wiedemann, P.M. & Schutz,¨ H. 2008, “Framing effects on risk perception of na- notechnology”, in: Public Understanding of Science 17(3), 369–379.

Wiedemann, P.M. & Schutz,¨ H. 2008, “Framing effects on risk perception of na- notechnology”, in: Public Understanding of Science 17(3), 369–379.

Nuclear Threats

Badash, L. 2001, “Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena”, in: Physics in perspectives 3(1), 76-105.

Ball, D. 2006, “The Probabilities of On the Beach: Assessing Armageddon Scenari- os in the 21st Century”, working paper no. 401, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University, Canberra.

Prosh, E.C. & McCracken, A.D. 1985, “Postapocalypse stratigraphy: Some con- siderations and proposals”, in: Geology 13, 4–5.

*Potter, W. & Ackerman, G. 2008, “Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventa- ble peril”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

11 Robock, A., et al. 2006, “Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts”, At- mos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 6, 11817-11843.

Robock, A. et al. 2007, “The Continuing Environmental Threat of Nuclear Wea- pons: Integrated Policy Responses” in: Eos 88(21).

Robock, A., Oman, L. & Stenchikov, G.L. 2007, “Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic conse- quences”, in: Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D13107.

Sagan, C. 1983, “Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: some policy implications” in: Foreign Affairs Winter 1983/84, 257–292.

Toon, O.B., at al. 2006, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism”, in: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 6, 11745-11816.

Toon, et al. 2007, “Nuclear War: Consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts”, in: Science 315, 1224.

Physics Disasters

Blaizot, J.-P. et al. 2003, Study of Potentially Dangerous Events during Heavy-Ion Collisions at the LHC: Report of the LHC Safety Study Group, CERN Scientific Information Service.

Giddingsa, S.B. & Mangano, M.L. 2008, Astrophysical implications of hypothe- tical stable TeV-scale black holes, CERN-PH-TH/2008-025.

Jaffe, R.L., Busza, W., Sandweiss. J. & Wilczek, F. 1999, Review of Specula- tive ‘Disaster Scenarios’ at RHIC.

Rubbia, C. 1996, “Long baseline neutrino oscillations and proton decay: the ICA- RUS project”, in: Nuclear Physics B (Proc. Suppl.) 48, 172–182.

Kent, A. 2004, “A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes”, in: Risk Analysis 24(1), 157–168.

*Tegmark, M. & Bostrom, N. 2005, “How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe?” in: Nature 438, 754.

12 *Wilczek, F. 2008, “Big troubles, imagined and real”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c´ (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Refuges

Engdahl, S. 2006, Space and Human Survival: My Views on the Importance of Co- lonizing Space.

Traill, L.W. et al. 2007, Minimum Viable Population Size.

Supervolcanos Ambrose, S.H. 2003, “Did the super-eruption of Toba cause a human population bottleneck? Reply to Gathorne-Hardy and Harcourt-Smith”, in: Journal of Hu- man Evolution 45, 231-237.

*Rampino, M.R. 2008, “Supervolcanism and other geophysical processes of cata- strophic import”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

Sparks, S. et al. 2005, Super-eruptions. Global Effects and Future Threats, Report if a Geological Society of London Working Group.

Misc

Bostrom, N. 1993, “Are you living in a computer simulation” in: Philosophical Quar- terly 53 (211), 243–255. Nick, B. 2004,] “The Future of Human Evolution”, in: C. Tandy (ed.), Death and Anti-Death: Two Hundred Years After Kant, Fifty Years After Turing, Ria University Press: Palo Alto, 339–371.

*Caplan, B. 2008, “The totalitarian threat”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovi´c(eds.)´ Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.

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