Catastrophe: Risk and Response; Collapse
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A Critical Look at Catastrophe Risk Assessments
CERN-TH/2000-029 DAMTP-2000-105 hep-ph/0009204 A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments Adrian Kent Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EW, U.K. (September 15, 2000) Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a \killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in forthcoming collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. We note that this seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost | a good measure, according to standard risk 8 analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, pcatastrophe < 2 10− , implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. × We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. 15 We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10− per year is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation≈ hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made and no value is placed on the lives of future generations. A respectable case can be made for requiring a bound many orders of magnitude smaller. We conclude that the costs of small risks of catastrophe have been significantly underestimated in the physics literature, with obvious implications for future policy. -
Efficient Responses to Catastrophic Risk Richard A
University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Journal Articles Faculty Scholarship 2006 Efficient Responseso t Catastrophic Risk Richard A. Posner Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Richard A. Posner, "Efficient Responseso t Catastrophic Risk," 6 Chicago Journal of International Law 511 (2006). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal Articles by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Efficient Responses to Catastrophic Risk Richard A. Posner* The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004 has focused attention on a type of disaster to which policymakers pay too little attention-a disaster that has a very low or unknown probability of occurring but that if it does occur creates enormous losses. Great as the death toll, physical and emotional suffering of survivors, and property damage caused by the tsunami were, even greater losses could be inflicted by other disasters of low (but not negligible) or unknown probability. The asteroid that exploded above Siberia in 1908 with the force of a hydrogen bomb might have killed millions of people had it exploded above a major city. Yet that asteroid was only about two hundred feet in diameter, and a much larger one (among the thousands of dangerously large asteroids in orbits that intersect the earth's orbit) could strike the earth and cause the total extinction of the human race through a combination of shock waves, fire, tsunamis, and blockage of sunlight wherever it struck. -
European Technology Agency ANTEPRIMA.Pdf
revision copy revision copy Associazione Culturale Diàlexis is a Think Tank founded in 2006 at the occasion of the celebration of the 50 years of the Rome Treaty. It published, at that occasion, with the publishing house Alpina, the Book ―50 Years of Europe, Images and Reflections‖, and organised in the Palace of the Piedmont Region the exhibition ―Immagini e riflessioni per i 50 anni d‘Europa‖. It has the aim of diffusing in Piedmont the knowledge of Europe and in Europe the knowledge of the Piedmont. Baustellen Europas is a bookseries devoted to Europa as cultural construction, previously published by Alpina, and now by Associazione Culturale Diàlexis Riccardo Lala, chairman of the Associazione, has participated to the making of Europe in the most diverse capacities: youth movements, trade associations, national and European civil and military public service, trade unionism, management of financial and industrial European multinationals in the areas of fashion, chemistry, energy, high tech, transportation, defense, services and publishing. He negotiated and drafted the founding documents of ELV, the company manufacturing the Vega Launcher of Arianespace, the 1st stage of Ariane as well the AVUM body of the European reusable space vehicle. revision copy revision copy Copyright 2020 By Riccardo Lala All rights of paper and digital reproduction or adaptation, partial or total, by whichever means (including microfilms and photocopies) are reserved for all countries. The publisher may grant, under payment, the authorization to reproduce a -
January 2006-2.Indd
Vol. 35, No. 1 January 2006 PHYSICSHYSICS& SOCIETY A Publication of The Forum on Physics and Society • A Forum of The American Physical Society EDITOR’S COMMENTS Anybody willing to look beyond the point of their nose will tween science and society. A prime, much debated, possible recognize that the question of supplying suffi cient energy for solution to the problem is the wide spread use of nuclear a growing world, hungry for universal prosperity, without energy. The problems inherent in such a solution are long choking that world on the byproducts of the production and run resource availability, safety, waste disposal, and the use of that energy, is the major problem at the interface be- continued on page 2 IN THIS ISSUE IN THE OCTOBER WEB ISSUE EDITORS’ COMMENTS ELECTIONS Candidate Statements. Please Vote! FORUM NEWS Vote via the Web at: http://physics.wm.edu/ballot.html. Please Vote! 3 Election Results, by Marc Sher 3 Project on Elements of an Energy Strategy, by Tony Nero EDITOR’S COMMENTS ARTICLES ARTICLES 4 The Status of Nuclear Waste Disposal, by David Bodansky Introduction to a Sequence of Articles in Physics & Society on 7 Nuclear Power and Proliferation, Science Input to Government, W.K.H. Panofsky Scientifi c Integrity in Government and Ballistic Missile Defense, by Gerald E. Marsh and George S. Stanford Edwin E. Salpeter 9 4S (Super Safe, Small and Simple LMR), by Akio Minato Physics in Theater, Harry Lustig 12 Strawbale Construction — Low Tech vs. High Tech or Just Better Physical Properties? by Ken Haggard The Great Fallout-Cancer Story of 1978 and its Aftermath, Daniel W. -
Eschatology and the Technological Future
Eschatology and the Technological Future This book offers an insightful and timely analysis of key theorists and ideas in the intersection between theology and technology. From the religiously inspired technological optimism of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin and Nikolai Fedorov, to the darker technological pessimism of Jacques Ellul, the contributions of Christian theorists to under- standing the technological milieu can offer us fresh perspectives on some intractable problems of modern life. As Burdett clearly shows, technological optimism and utopianism have religious roots, and a technological culture that ignores its own roots is in danger not only of environmental devastation, but also existential and spiritual despair. A fi ne book at a critical time. — David Lewin, Liverpool Hope University, UK The rapid advancement of technology has led to an explosion of speculative theories about what the future of humankind may look like. These “tech- nological futurisms” from the fi elds of nanotechnology, biotechnology and information technology are drawing growing scrutiny from the philosophi- cal and theological communities. This text seeks to contextualize the grow- ing literature on the cultural, philosophical and religious implications of technological advancement by considering technological futurisms such as transhumanism in the context of the long historical tradition of technologi- cal dreaming. Michael Burdett traces the latent religious sources of our con- temporary technological imagination by looking at visionary approaches to technology and the future in seminal technological utopias and sci- ence fi ction and draws on past theological responses to the technological future with Pierre Teilhard de Chardin and Jacques Ellul. Burdett’s argu- ment arrives at a contemporary Christian response to transhumanism based around the themes of possibility and promise by turning to the works of Richard Kearney, Eberhard Jüngel and Jürgen Moltmann. -
Transhumanism
T ranshumanism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=T ranshum... Transhumanism From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia See also: Outline of transhumanism Transhumanism is an international Part of Ideology series on intellectual and cultural movement supporting Transhumanism the use of science and technology to improve human mental and physical characteristics Ideologies and capacities. The movement regards aspects Abolitionism of the human condition, such as disability, Democratic transhumanism suffering, disease, aging, and involuntary Extropianism death as unnecessary and undesirable. Immortalism Transhumanists look to biotechnologies and Libertarian transhumanism other emerging technologies for these Postgenderism purposes. Dangers, as well as benefits, are Singularitarianism also of concern to the transhumanist Technogaianism [1] movement. Related articles The term "transhumanism" is symbolized by Transhumanism in fiction H+ or h+ and is often used as a synonym for Transhumanist art "human enhancement".[2] Although the first known use of the term dates from 1957, the Organizations contemporary meaning is a product of the 1980s when futurists in the United States Applied Foresight Network Alcor Life Extension Foundation began to organize what has since grown into American Cryonics Society the transhumanist movement. Transhumanist Cryonics Institute thinkers predict that human beings may Foresight Institute eventually be able to transform themselves Humanity+ into beings with such greatly expanded Immortality Institute abilities as to merit the label "posthuman".[1] Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Transhumanism is therefore sometimes Transhumanism Portal · referred to as "posthumanism" or a form of transformational activism influenced by posthumanist ideals.[3] The transhumanist vision of a transformed future humanity has attracted many supporters and detractors from a wide range of perspectives. -
Human Extinction Risks in the Cosmological and Astrobiological Contexts
HUMAN EXTINCTION RISKS IN THE COSMOLOGICAL AND ASTROBIOLOGICAL CONTEXTS Milan M. Ćirković Astronomical Observatory Belgrade Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade Serbia and Montenegro e-mail: [email protected] Abstract. We review the subject of human extinction (in its modern form), with particular emphasis on the natural sub-category of existential risks. Enormous breakthroughs made in recent decades in understanding of our terrestrial and cosmic environments shed new light on this old issue. In addition, our improved understanding of extinction of other species, and the successes of the nascent discipline of astrobiology create a mandate to elucidate the necessary conditions for survival of complex living and/or intelligent systems. A range of topics impacted by this “astrobiological revolution” encompasses such diverse fields as anthropic reasoning, complexity theory, philosophy of mind, or search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). Therefore, we shall attempt to put the issue of human extinction into a wider context of a general astrobiological picture of patterns of life/complex biospheres/intelligence in the Galaxy. For instance, it seems possible to define a secularly evolving risk function facing any complex metazoan lifeforms throughout the Galaxy. This multidisciplinary approach offers a credible hope that in the very close future of humanity all natural hazards will be well-understood and effective policies of reducing or eliminating them conceived and successfully implemented. This will, in turn, open way for a new issues dealing with the interaction of sentient beings with its astrophysical environment on truly cosmological scales, issues presciently speculated upon by great thinkers such as H. G. Wells, J. B. -
New Strangelet Signature and Its Relevance to the CASTOR Calorimeter
214 octants. Each octant is longitudinally segmented into 80 layers, the first 8 (~ 14.7 Xo) comprising the electromagnetic section and the remaining 72 (~ 9.47 A/) the hadronic section. The light output from groups of 4 consecutive active layers is coupled into the same light guide, giving a total of 20 readout channels along each octant. Fig. 1: General view of the CASTOR calorimeter construction *""•••••-....... including support. The outer plates (one omitted for clarity) constitute the support for the light guides and photomultip- liers. This work has been supported by the Polish State Committee for Scientific Research (grant No 2P03B 121 12 and SPUB P03/016/97). References: 1. A.L.S. Angelis, J. Bartke, M.Yu. Bogolyubsky, S.N. Filippov, E. Gladysz-Dziadus, Yu.V. Kharlov, A.B. Kurepin, A.I. Maevskaya, G. Mavromanolakis, A.D. Panagiotou, S.A. Sadovsky, P. Stefanski, and Z. Wlodarczyk, Proc. 28-th Intern. Symposium on Multi- particle Dynamics, Delphi (Greece), 1998, to be published by World Scientific; A.L.S. Angelis et al., 10-th ISVHECRI, Gran Sasso, 1998, to be published in Nucl. Phys. B, Proc. Suppl.; 2. E. Gladysz-Dziadus, Yu.V. Kharlov, A.D. Panagiotou, and S.A. Sadovsky, Proc. 3-rd ICPA- QGP, Jaipur, 17-21 March 1997, eds B.C. Sinha et al., Narosa Publishing House, New Delhi, 1998, p. 554; 3. A.L.S. Angelis, J. Bartke, J. Blocki, G. Mavromanolakis, A.D. Panagiotou, and P. Zychowski, ALICE/98-46 Internal Note/CAS, CERN, 1998. PL9902552 New Strangelet Signature and Its Relevance to the CASTOR Calorimeter E. -
Transhumanism, Progress and the Future
A peer-reviewed electronic journal published by the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies ISSN 1541-0099 20(2) – December 2009 Transhumanism, Progress and the Future Philippe Verdoux [email protected] Journal of Evolution and Technology - Vol. 20 Issue 2 –December 2009 - pgs 49-69 http://jetpress.org/v20/verdoux.htm Abstract This paper argues that one can advocate a moral imperative to pursue enhancement technologies while at the same time rejecting the historical reality of progress and holding a pessimistic view of the future. The first half of the paper puts forth several arguments for why progress is illusory and why one has good reason to be pessimistic about the future of humanity (and posthumanity). The second half then argues that this is entirely consistent with also championing the futurological vision of transhumanism. The claim is that, relative to the alternatives proposed, this vision actually offers the safest route into the future, even if it also entails an increase in the probability of self-annihilation. 1. Transhumanism and progress Transhumanism is a recent philosophical and cultural movement that has both descriptive and normative components: (1) the descriptive claim is that current and anticipated future technologies will make it possible to radically alter both our world and persons, not just by “enhancing” the capacities that we already have but also by adding entirely new capacities not previously had.1 (2) The normative claim is that we ought to do what we can to foment and accelerate the creation of such “enhancement” technologies, thereby converting the possibility of a “posthuman” future into an actuality. -
CATASTROPHIC RISK and GOVERNANCE AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA: a Postscript to Terrorism Risk in a Post-9/JJ Economy Robert J
CATASTROPHIC RISK AND GOVERNANCE AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA: A Postscript to Terrorism Risk in a Post-9/JJ Economy Robert J. Rbeet In an earlier article, published with this fine journal, I analyzed terrorism risk and its economic consequences with the caveat that the "greatest risk of exogenous shock to the industry is from a natural mega-catastrophe."! Since the article addressed terrorism risk, this idea was expressed only in passing. During and since publication, a number of stunning catastrophes have occurred in various comers of the world, including the South Asia tsunami, human-to-human transmission of the H5NI avian flu virus, and Hurricane Katrina. 2 In this essay, I expand my original idea and inquire into the political economy and system of governance that have made catastrophes more frequent and severe. The nature of catastrophe, whether manmade or natural, has changed and so too must our perception and response. Like manmade catastrophes, natural disasters are not merely acts of God; rather, mortal activity can influence their causality or consequence. Individual choices and government action can amplify natural catastrophic risk. This is seen in government risk-mitigation efforts such as flood insurance and response to catastrophes, including the recent failures in New Orleans. The system of governance that is designed to mitigate risk and respond to catastrophes can be ineffective, or worse, increase the risk of harm through unintended consequences. Human influence must be considered a source of collateral risk, the kind that leads to a systemic crisis or exacerbates one. In an increasingly complex society, governance may not always entail the delivery of services so much as the coordination and management of various governmental and nongovernmental entities, and so the lack of complete control may limit the effectiveness of governance and perhaps t Associate Professor of Law, Washburn University School of Law; M.B.A., University of Pennsylvania (Wharton); J.D., George Washington University; B.A., University of Chicago. -
A Yankee in King Gustav's Court
BOOKS et al. MEDICINE in Eastern religions. Such Waughian inter- jections made me wonder whether the rural A Yankee in King Gustav’s Court Pennsylvanian had wandered into his pres- ent position of chancellor of the University Sydney Brenner of California, San Francisco, by some com- hen I was elected a fellow of a ic accident. But once we get to the last chap- Cambridge College, it took me a ter, where Bishop gives us many insights in- Wshort time to realize that I might to the nature of the scientific enterprise and have also been endowed with a gift of knowl- where he reveals his leadership roles in the edge. Judging by my colleagues, I too should fields of university education and research, be able to discourse on an enormous range of we realize that he is a deeply knowledgeable arcane subjects—15th-century ecclesiastical Image not and serious man who has brought to his in- history, the politics of the Weimar Republic, tellectual work a responsible humanity. cobbled paving, Baroque art, modal logic, available for I urge every student to read How to Win black holes—easily dwarfing my modest online use. the Nobel Prize. They will learn that even knowledge of genetics and if one needs luck to succeed, one can de- How to Win molecular biology. And so velop a sensitivity to lucky situations and the Nobel Prize it is, we learn from this de- have both the courage and the humility to An Unexpected lightful book, with the give back to science and to other people the Life in Science Nobel Prize, although the fruits of achievement. -
Arxiv:Astro-Ph/0411538V2 3 Feb 2005 Taglt Ob Oo-Ao Okdwt Hre[17] Charge O a Sake with the Locked for Color-flavor Be Detection
Strangelet propagation and cosmic ray flux Jes Madsen Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Aarhus, DK-8000 Arhus˚ C, Denmark (Dated: November 17, 2004) The galactic propagation of cosmic ray strangelets is described and the resulting flux is calculated for a wide range of parameters as a prerequisite for strangelet searches in lunar soil and with an Earth orbiting magnetic spectrometer, AMS-02. While the inherent uncertainties are large, flux predictions at a measurable level are obtained for reasonable choices of parameters if strange quark matter is absolutely stable. This allows a direct test of the strange matter hypothesis. PACS numbers: 12.38.Mh, 12.39.Ba, 97.60.Jd, 98.70.Sa I. INTRODUCTION At densities slightly above nuclear matter density quark matter composed of up, down, and strange quarks in roughly equal numbers (called strange quark matter) may be absolutely stable, i.e. stronger bound than iron [1, 2, 3, 4]. In spite of two decades of scrutiny, neither theoretical calculations, nor experiments or astrophysical observations have been able to settle this issue (for reviews, see [5, 6]). If strange quark matter is absolutely stable it would have important consequences for models of “neutron stars”, which would then most likely all be quark stars (strange stars [3, 7, 8, 9, 10]). It would also give rise to a significant component of strangelets (lumps of strange quark matter) in cosmic rays, and in fact the search for cosmic ray strangelets may be the most direct way of testing the stable strange matter hypothesis. A significant flux of cosmic ray strangelets could exist due to strange matter release from binary collisions of strange stars [11, 12].